Daily Papers

Latent actions provide a compact interface between action-free video and downstream decision-making, yet existing Latent Action Models (LAMs) force every transition through a fixed-capacity bottleneck. We identify a bottleneck trade-off: overly tight codes can discard transition cues needed for action alignment, while overly loose codes preserve additional transition variation that must be resolved when alignment labels are scarce or narrowly distributed. FlexLAM replaces this fixed capacity with variable-length latent actions trained by nested dropout, yielding prefix-valid codes that capture compact transition structure first and add detail only when needed, without new architectures or losses. A single FlexLAM matches or surpasses separately trained fixed-capacity LAMs at every evaluated token budget under standard scarce-label supervision and under a low-return single-task alignment stress test, indicating that FlexLAM is not merely adjustable at inference time but learns a better latent-action interface at the same token budgets. The same model supports inference-time token-budget adjustment without retraining, and FlexLAM improves Ego4D transition reconstruction. These results suggest that variable-length latent actions are an architecture-free, drop-in upgrade to the fixed-capacity bottleneck in latent action models, latent-action world models, and video-pretrained action interfaces.

We introduce Continual Learning via Neural Pruning (CLNP), a new method aimed at lifelong learning in fixed capacity models based on neuronal model sparsification. In this method, subsequent tasks are trained using the inactive neurons and filters of the sparsified network and cause zero deterioration to the performance of previous tasks. In order to deal with the possible compromise between model sparsity and performance, we formalize and incorporate the concept of graceful forgetting: the idea that it is preferable to suffer a small amount of forgetting in a controlled manner if it helps regain network capacity and prevents uncontrolled loss of performance during the training of future tasks. CLNP also provides simple continual learning diagnostic tools in terms of the number of free neurons left for the training of future tasks as well as the number of neurons that are being reused. In particular, we see in experiments that CLNP verifies and automatically takes advantage of the fact that the features of earlier layers are more transferable. We show empirically that CLNP leads to significantly improved results over current weight elasticity based methods.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has emerged as a powerful reinforcement learning paradigm for post-training video generation models. However, existing GRPO pipelines rely on static, fixed-capacity reward models whose evaluation behavior is frozen during training. Such rigid rewards introduce distributional bias, saturate quickly as the generator improves, and ultimately limit the stability and effectiveness of reinforcement-based alignment. We propose Self-Paced GRPO, a competence-aware GRPO framework in which reward feedback co-evolves with the generator. Our method introduces a progressive reward mechanism that automatically shifts its emphasis from coarse visual fidelity to temporal coherence and fine-grained text-video semantic alignment as generation quality increases. This self-paced curriculum alleviates reward-policy mismatch, mitigates reward exploitation, and yields more stable optimization. Experiments on VBench across multiple video generation backbones demonstrate consistent improvements in both visual quality and semantic alignment over GRPO baselines with static rewards, validating the effectiveness and generality of Self-Paced GRPO.

In-Context Learning (ICL) in transformers acts as an online associative memory and is believed to underpin their high performance on complex sequence processing tasks. However, in gated linear attention models, this memory has a fixed capacity and is prone to interference, especially for long sequences. We propose Palimpsa, a self-attention model that views ICL as a continual learning problem that must address a stability-plasticity dilemma. Palimpsa uses Bayesian metaplasticity, where the plasticity of each attention state is tied to an importance state grounded by a prior distribution that captures accumulated knowledge. We demonstrate that various gated linear attention models emerge as specific architecture choices and posterior approximations, and that Mamba2 is a special case of Palimpsa where forgetting dominates. This theoretical link enables the transformation of any non-metaplastic model into a metaplastic one, significantly expanding its memory capacity. Our experiments show that Palimpsa consistently outperforms baselines on the Multi-Query Associative Recall (MQAR) benchmark and on Commonsense Reasoning tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in privacy-critical and personalization-oriented scenarios, yet the role of context length in shaping privacy leakage and personalization effectiveness remains largely unexplored. We introduce a large-scale benchmark, PAPerBench, to systematically study how increasing context length influences both personalization quality and privacy protection in LLMs. The benchmark comprises approximately 29,000 instances with context lengths ranging from 1K to 256K tokens, yielding a total of 377K evaluation questions. It jointly evaluates personalization performance and privacy risks across diverse scenarios, enabling controlled analysis of long-context model behavior. Extensive evaluations across state-of-the-art LLMs reveal consistent performance degradation in both personalization and privacy as context length increases. We further provide a theoretical analysis of attention dilution under context scaling, explaining this behavior as an inherent limitation of soft attention in fixed-capacity Transformers. The empirical and theoretical findings together suggest a general scaling gap in current models -- long context, less focus. We release the benchmark to support reproducible evaluation and future research on scalable privacy and personalization. Code and data are available at https://github.com/SafeRL-Lab/PAPerBench

Efficient state space models (SSMs), such as linear recurrent neural networks and linear attention variants, offer computational advantages over Transformers but struggle with tasks requiring long-range in-context retrieval-like text copying, associative recall, and question answering over long contexts. Previous efforts to address these challenges have focused on architectural modifications, often reintroducing computational inefficiencies. In this paper, we propose a novel training procedure, Birdie, that significantly enhances the in-context retrieval capabilities of SSMs without altering their architecture. Our approach combines bidirectional input processing with dynamic mixtures of specialized pre-training objectives, optimized via reinforcement learning. We introduce a new bidirectional SSM architecture that seamlessly transitions from bidirectional context processing to causal generation. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that Birdie markedly improves performance on retrieval-intensive tasks such as multi-number phone book lookup, long paragraph question-answering, and infilling. This narrows the performance gap with Transformers, while retaining computational efficiency. Our findings highlight the importance of training procedures in leveraging the fixed-state capacity of SSMs, offering a new direction to advance their capabilities. All code and pre-trained models are available at https://www.github.com/samblouir/birdie, with support for JAX and PyTorch.

Diffusion language models (dLLMs) offer an alternative to autoregressive (AR) language modeling, yet the scaling behavior of Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) dLLMs remains poorly understood. We systematically characterize how optimization hyperparameters, compute allocation, and architecture scale for MoE dLLMs, identifying quantitative differences from scaling trends previously reported for AR models. Specifically, for optimization, the optimal nominal batch size grows faster, while the optimal learning rate decays more rapidly with compute. For model--data allocation, IsoFLOP analysis reveals a slight data-side tilt: the optimal token budget grows faster than activated model-side computation. For MoE architecture, larger scales increasingly favor larger expert pools at fixed activated capacity, while moderate expert granularity remains consistently effective and the preferred fraction of activated capacity assigned to shared experts remains stable across scales. Guided by these findings, we train LLaDA MoE v2, a 30B-A3B dLLM, from scratch on 23.5T tokens. With approximately 65\% as many pretraining tokens as Qwen3, LLaDA MoE v2 approaches Qwen3 on several knowledge, reasoning, and coding benchmarks. After supervised fine-tuning alone, it outperforms SDAR Chat on seven of eight reasoning and coding benchmarks and remains close to Qwen3 on several tasks. These results establish practical scaling laws and design principles for MoE dLLMs.

Speculative decoding accelerates Large Language Model (LLM) inference by verifying multiple drafted tokens in parallel. However, for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, this parallelism introduces a severe bottleneck: large draft trees activate many unique experts, significantly increasing memory pressure and diminishing speedups from speculative decoding relative to autoregressive decoding. Prior methods reduce speculation depth when MoE verification becomes expensive. We propose MoE-Spec, a training-free verification-time expert budgeting method that decouples speculation depth from memory cost by enforcing a fixed expert capacity limit at each layer, loading only the experts that contribute most to verification and dropping the long tail of rarely used experts that drive bandwidth overhead. Experiments across multiple model scales and datasets show that this method yields 10--30\% higher throughput than state-of-the-art speculative decoding baselines (EAGLE-3) at comparable quality, with flexibility to trade accuracy for further latency reductions through tighter budgets.

Mixture-of-Experts models, now popular for scaling capacity at fixed inference speed, switch experts at nearly every token. Once a model outgrows available GPU memory, this churn can render optimizations like offloading and pre-fetching ineffective. We make the case that the options framework in reinforcement learning is a perfect match to tackle this problem, and argue for temporally extended mixture-of-experts layers. Building on the option-critic framework with deliberation costs, we add a controller to each layer that learns when to switch expert sets and which to load. By applying this to gpt-oss-20b with low-rank adapters and a self-distillation reward, our method reduces switch rates from over 50% to below 5% while retaining up to 90% of base-model accuracy on MATH, MMLU, and MMMLU. This shows that even existing pre-trained models can be converted to temporally extended MoEs with lightweight training, with the deliberation cost allowing model trainers to trade off switching rates against capability. We hope this opens a principled path, grounded in the options framework, for memory-efficient serving and continual learning in ever-growing MoE models.

Scientific reasoning models for biology combine language models with foundation models trained on multimodal biological data, including DNA, RNA, and proteins. These models are built through post-training, yet how each stage shapes reasoning and generalization remains poorly understood. We study when post-training improves performance and when it induces over-specialization. Across genomics, transcriptomics, and proteins, we train and evaluate more than 100 biological reasoning models under controlled variation in backbone, continued pre-training (CPT), supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and reinforcement learning (RL), measuring both in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) performance. We find that each post-training stage reshapes generalization in a distinct way rather than contributing uniform gains. CPT improves downstream performance by aligning models with biological language. SFT consistently increases ID performance but causes OOD performance to peak early and decline as models fit the training distribution. RL, when applied to strong SFT checkpoints with aligned rewards, improves OOD performance and partially recovers generalization. These results show that biological reasoning does not improve monotonically with additional supervision or compute. Instead, performance depends on how training stages are composed. Under fixed post-training budgets, the strongest ID-OOD trade-off comes from brief SFT, larger RL allocations, and asymmetric adaptation capacity across stages.

To improve the reasoning capabilities of large language models, test-time compute is typically scaled by generating intermediate tokens before the final answer. However, this couples reasoning to autoregressive generation and thereby conflates internal computation with external communication. In contrast, human cognition can use working memory to hold and manipulate information internally without the need to externalize intermediate thoughts. Drawing on this principle, we introduce Reasoning in Memory (RiM), a latent reasoning method that replaces the autoregressive generation of reasoning steps with memory blocks. These memory blocks are fixed sequences of special tokens that unlock the working-memory capacity of large language models. Since they are fixed rather than generated, they can be processed in a single forward pass, enabling compute-efficient latent reasoning. To operationalize these memory blocks, we employ a two-stage curriculum. First, we ground them by predicting explicit reasoning steps after each memory block. Second, we discard this step-level supervision and iteratively refine the final answer after each memory block. Our experiments on reasoning benchmarks show that, across language models of different families and sizes, RiM matches or exceeds existing latent reasoning methods while avoiding the autoregressive generation of thoughts. These results demonstrate that large language models can be trained to use working memory as an effective mechanism for latent reasoning.

Modern language models, including transformer, recurrent, and memory-based variants, share a common chassis: a stack of identical layers in which parameters are allocated uniformly across depth. This is a default inherited from the original transformer and largely unchanged since, yet a growing body of evidence suggests that layers contribute non-uniformly to the final output, with later layers refining the residual stream rather than transforming it. We ask whether parameter capacity should reflect this asymmetry. Our controlled experiment shows that, under a fixed budget, allocating more capacity to earlier layers and less to later layers improves perplexity over a uniform-width baseline, while the reverse allocation hurts. Building on this result, we introduce Tapered Language Models (TLMs), an architectural principle in which a parameter-bearing component is monotonically tapered across depth under a fixed total budget. MLPs are the natural site for this instantiation: they dominate parameter count across all modern LM families and expose width as a single, clean axis of variation. Across three model scales and four architectures (Transformer, Gated Attention, Hope-attention, and Titans), tapering MLP width via a smooth cosine schedule consistently improves perplexity and downstream benchmark performance over uniform baselines, at no additional parameter or compute cost. These findings establish depth-aware capacity allocation as a simple, architecture-agnostic axis of language model design, a free lever hidden in plain sight.

The theory of state tracking in recurrent architectures has predominantly focused on expressive capacity: whether a fixed architecture can theoretically realize a set of symbolic transition rules. We argue that equally important is error control, the dynamics governing hidden-state drift along the directions that distinguish symbolic states. We prove that affine recurrent networks, a class of models encompassing State-Space Models and Linear Attention, cannot correct errors along state-separating subspaces once they preserve state representations. Consequently, practical affine trackers do not learn robust state tracking; rather, they learn finite horizon solutions governed by accumulated state-relevant error. We characterize the mechanics of this failure, showing that tracking remains readable only while the accumulating within-class spread remains small relative to the initial between-class separation. We demonstrate empirically on group state-tracking tasks that this breakdown is predictable: tracking collapses when the distinguishability ratio crosses the readability threshold of the trained decoder. Across trained models, the point of this crossing predicts the horizon at which downstream accuracy fails. These results establish that robust state tracking is determined not only by an architecture's theoretical expressivity but crucially by its error control.

Large Language Models (LLMs) apply uniform computation to all tokens, despite language exhibiting highly non-uniform information density. This token-uniform regime wastes capacity on locally predictable spans while under-allocating computation to semantically critical transitions. We propose Dynamic Large Concept Models (DLCM), a hierarchical language modeling framework that learns semantic boundaries from latent representations and shifts computation from tokens to a compressed concept space where reasoning is more efficient. DLCM discovers variable-length concepts end-to-end without relying on predefined linguistic units. Hierarchical compression fundamentally changes scaling behavior. We introduce the first compression-aware scaling law, which disentangles token-level capacity, concept-level reasoning capacity, and compression ratio, enabling principled compute allocation under fixed FLOPs. To stably train this heterogeneous architecture, we further develop a decoupled μP parametrization that supports zero-shot hyperparameter transfer across widths and compression regimes. At a practical setting (R=4, corresponding to an average of four tokens per concept), DLCM reallocates roughly one-third of inference compute into a higher-capacity reasoning backbone, achieving a +2.69\% average improvement across 12 zero-shot benchmarks under matched inference FLOPs.

Large language models (LLMs) have rapidly scaled in size, bringing severe memory and computational challenges that hinder their deployment. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)-based compression has emerged as an appealing post-training compression technique for LLMs, yet most existing methods apply a uniform compression ratio across all layers, implicitly assuming homogeneous information included in various layers. This overlooks the substantial intra-layer heterogeneity observed in LLMs, where middle layers tend to encode richer information while early and late layers are more redundant. In this work, we revisit the existing SVD-based compression method and propose D-Rank, a framework with layer-wise balanced Dynamic Rank allocation for LLMs compression. We first introduce effective rank as a principled metric to measure the information density of weight matrices, and then allocate ranks via a Lagrange multiplier-based optimization scheme to adaptively assign more capacity to groups with higher information density under a fixed compression ratio. Moreover, we rebalance the allocated ranks across attention layers to account for their varying importance and extend D-Rank to latest LLMs with grouped-query attention. Extensive experiments on various LLMs with different scales across multiple compression ratios demonstrate that D-Rank consistently outperforms SVD-LLM, ASVD, and Basis Sharing, achieving more than 15 lower perplexity with LLaMA-3-8B model on C4 datasets at 20% compression ratio and up to 5% higher zero-shot reasoning accuracy with LLaMA-7B model at 40% compression ratio while achieving even higher throughput.

Attention within windows has been widely explored in vision transformers to balance the performance, computation complexity, and memory footprint. However, current models adopt a hand-crafted fixed-size window design, which restricts their capacity of modeling long-term dependencies and adapting to objects of different sizes. To address this drawback, we propose Varied-Size Window Attention (VSA) to learn adaptive window configurations from data. Specifically, based on the tokens within each default window, VSA employs a window regression module to predict the size and location of the target window, i.e., the attention area where the key and value tokens are sampled. By adopting VSA independently for each attention head, it can model long-term dependencies, capture rich context from diverse windows, and promote information exchange among overlapped windows. VSA is an easy-to-implement module that can replace the window attention in state-of-the-art representative models with minor modifications and negligible extra computational cost while improving their performance by a large margin, e.g., 1.1\% for Swin-T on ImageNet classification. In addition, the performance gain increases when using larger images for training and test. Experimental results on more downstream tasks, including object detection, instance segmentation, and semantic segmentation, further demonstrate the superiority of VSA over the vanilla window attention in dealing with objects of different sizes. The code will be released https://github.com/ViTAE-Transformer/ViTAE-VSA.

While large language models (LLMs) excel in generating coherent and contextually rich outputs, their capacity to efficiently handle long-form contexts is limited by fixed-length position embeddings. Additionally, the computational cost of processing long sequences increases quadratically, making it challenging to extend context length. To address these challenges, we propose Long-form Context Injection with Recurrent Compression (LCIRC), a method that enables the efficient processing long-form sequences beyond the model's length limit through recurrent compression without retraining the entire model. We further introduce query dependent context modeling, which selectively compresses query-relevant information, ensuring that the model retains the most pertinent content. Our empirical results demonstrate that Query Dependent LCIRC (QD-LCIRC) significantly improves LLM's ability to manage extended contexts, making it well-suited for tasks that require both comprehensive context understanding and query relevance.

Fixed representational capacity is a fundamental constraint in continual learning: practitioners must guess an appropriate model width before training, without knowing how many distinct concepts the data contains. We propose LACE (Loss-Adaptive Capacity Expansion), a simple online mechanism that expands a model's representational capacity during training by monitoring its own loss signal. When sustained loss deviation exceeds a threshold - indicating that the current capacity is insufficient for newly encountered data - LACE adds new dimensions to the projection layer and trains them jointly with existing parameters. Across synthetic and real-data experiments, LACE triggers expansions exclusively at domain boundaries (100% boundary precision, zero false positives), matches the accuracy of a large fixed-capacity model while starting from a fraction of its dimensions, and produces adapter dimensions that are collectively critical to performance (3% accuracy drop when all adapters removed). We further demonstrate unsupervised domain separation in GPT-2 activations via layer-wise clustering, showing a U-shaped separability curve across layers that motivates adaptive capacity allocation in deep networks. LACE requires no labels, no replay buffers, and no external controllers, making it suitable for on-device continual learning under resource constraints.

This paper introduces a simple and scalable approach to improve the data efficiency of large language model (LLM) training by augmenting existing text data with thinking trajectories. The compute for pre-training LLMs has been growing at an unprecedented rate, while the availability of high-quality data remains limited. Consequently, maximizing the utility of available data constitutes a significant research challenge. A primary impediment is that certain high-quality tokens are difficult to learn given a fixed model capacity, as the underlying rationale for a single token can be exceptionally complex and deep. To address this issue, we propose Thinking augmented Pre-Training (TPT), a universal methodology that augments text with automatically generated thinking trajectories. Such augmentation effectively increases the volume of the training data and makes high-quality tokens more learnable through step-by-step reasoning and decomposition. We apply TPT across diverse training configurations up to 100B tokens, encompassing pre-training with both constrained and abundant data, as well as mid-training from strong open-source checkpoints. Experimental results indicate that our method substantially improves the performance of LLMs across various model sizes and families. Notably, TPT enhances the data efficiency of LLM pre-training by a factor of 3. For a 3B parameter model, it improves the post-training performance by over 10% on several challenging reasoning benchmarks.

Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often exhibiting limited cross-domain transferability. We analyze this bottleneck through spatial and temporal entropy measures, which are used as diagnostic indicators of spatiotemporal complexity mismatch rather than as guarantees that entropy alignment alone yields better forecasting. Empirically, larger mismatch is often accompanied by higher prediction uncertainty, especially under a fixed model-capacity budget. Guided by this diagnostic, we propose a scalable, adaptive framework that harmonizes spatial and temporal feature representations. Spatial dimensionality is compressed via low-rank matrix embedding to preserve essential structure, while an extended temporal horizon captures long-range dependencies and mitigates cumulative errors arising from temporal heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on urban traffic, meteorological, and epidemic datasets demonstrate substantial accuracy gains and broad applicability across the evaluated domains, suggesting that the framework is promising for a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks beyond the current study. The code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/ST-Balance/ST-Balance.

Effective planning in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) and model-predictive control (MPC) relies on the accuracy of the learned dynamics model. In many instances of MBRL and MPC, this model is assumed to be stationary and is periodically re-trained from scratch on state transition experience collected from the beginning of environment interactions. This implies that the time required to train the dynamics model - and the pause required between plan executions - grows linearly with the size of the collected experience. We argue that this is too slow for lifelong robot learning and propose HyperCRL, a method that continually learns the encountered dynamics in a sequence of tasks using task-conditional hypernetworks. Our method has three main attributes: first, it includes dynamics learning sessions that do not revisit training data from previous tasks, so it only needs to store the most recent fixed-size portion of the state transition experience; second, it uses fixed-capacity hypernetworks to represent non-stationary and task-aware dynamics; third, it outperforms existing continual learning alternatives that rely on fixed-capacity networks, and does competitively with baselines that remember an ever increasing coreset of past experience. We show that HyperCRL is effective in continual model-based reinforcement learning in robot locomotion and manipulation scenarios, such as tasks involving pushing and door opening. Our project website with videos is at this link https://rvl.cs.toronto.edu/blog/2020/hypercrl

Knowledge Distillation (KD) is a model-agnostic technique to improve model quality while having a fixed capacity budget. It is a commonly used technique for model compression, where a larger capacity teacher model with better quality is used to train a more compact student model with better inference efficiency. Through distillation, one hopes to benefit from student's compactness, without sacrificing too much on model quality. Despite the large success of knowledge distillation, better understanding of how it benefits student model's training dynamics remains under-explored. In this paper, we categorize teacher's knowledge into three hierarchical levels and study its effects on knowledge distillation: (1) knowledge of the `universe', where KD brings a regularization effect through label smoothing; (2) domain knowledge, where teacher injects class relationships prior to student's logit layer geometry; and (3) instance specific knowledge, where teacher rescales student model's per-instance gradients based on its measurement on the event difficulty. Using systematic analyses and extensive empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we confirm that the aforementioned three factors play a major role in knowledge distillation. Furthermore, based on our findings, we diagnose some of the failure cases of applying KD from recent studies.

Video vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly used in long-horizon and streaming settings, yet most video encoders still rely on spatiotemporal self-attention, causing compute and latency to grow quadratically with the number of frames. Existing efficiency methods improve scalability but often lose accuracy relative to full self-attention, for example through aggressive frame/token dropping or coarse attention approximations. We introduce StateKV, an inference-time method that adapts pretrained long-video VLMs to linear-time video prefill by carrying cross-frame context in a fixed-capacity, importance-based recurrent state, paired with a second full per-frame cache used for decoding. Across three long-video benchmarks and seven models spanning three families and multiple scales, StateKV remains close to full self-attention and consistently outperforms dominant sliding-window / recency-based streaming approximations, without fine-tuning or architectural changes. StateKV also reduces video-prefill cost measured FLOPs, enabling stronger accuracy at a fixed compute budget by running larger models. These results suggest a practical step toward scalable long-video understanding.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) improves reasoning reliability but increases token cost, motivating post-training compression of explicit reasoning traces. However, the shortest sufficient reasoning is not universal: it depends on difficulty, model capacity, and training state, making fixed length targets brittle. In practice, naive RL-based compression can also undesirably shorten the user-facing answer, because a single completion-level learning signal leaks across the think/answer boundary. We propose Difficulty-Scaled Segment-Wise GRPO (DSS-GRPO), which decomposes returns into think and answer components, computes group-relative advantages per segment, and routes them with hard token masks so compression updates act only on think while answer alignment acts only on answer. DSS-GRPO uses prompt-wise within-group shaping and difficulty-aware scaling to encourage concise reasoning without collapsing answer behavior.

A central challenge for the task of semantic segmentation is the prohibitive cost of obtaining dense pixel-level annotations to supervise model training. In this work, we show that in order to achieve a good level of segmentation performance, all you need are a few well-chosen pixel labels. We make the following contributions: (i) We investigate the novel semantic segmentation setting in which labels are supplied only at sparse pixel locations, and show that deep neural networks can use a handful of such labels to good effect; (ii) We demonstrate how to exploit this phenomena within an active learning framework, termed PixelPick, to radically reduce labelling cost, and propose an efficient "mouse-free" annotation strategy to implement our approach; (iii) We conduct extensive experiments to study the influence of annotation diversity under a fixed budget, model pretraining, model capacity and the sampling mechanism for picking pixels in this low annotation regime; (iv) We provide comparisons to the existing state of the art in semantic segmentation with active learning, and demonstrate comparable performance with up to two orders of magnitude fewer pixel annotations on the CamVid, Cityscapes and PASCAL VOC 2012 benchmarks; (v) Finally, we evaluate the efficiency of our annotation pipeline and its sensitivity to annotator error to demonstrate its practicality.

LLM agents operating over massive, dynamic tool libraries rely on effective retrieval, yet standard single-shot dense retrievers struggle with complex requests. These failures primarily stem from the disconnect between abstract user goals and technical documentation, and the limited capacity of fixed-size embeddings to model combinatorial tool compositions. To address these challenges, we propose TOOLQP, a lightweight framework that models retrieval as iterative query planning. Instead of single-shot matching, TOOLQP decomposes instructions into sub-tasks and dynamically generates queries to interact with the retriever, effectively bridging the semantic gap by targeting the specific sub-tasks required for composition. We train TOOLQP using synthetic query trajectories followed by optimization via Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). Experiments demonstrate that TOOLQP achieves state-of-the-art performance, exhibiting superior zero-shot generalization, robustness across diverse retrievers, and significant improvements in downstream agentic execution.

The scalability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to long contexts is fundamentally constrained by the quadratic complexity of standard attention, motivating the adoption of linear attention mechanisms with sub-quadratic cost. To improve representation capacity under long contexts, recent approaches organize memory in a multi-state manner. However, existing multi-state linear attention methods rely on fixed state merging policies that cannot adapt to dynamically varying token importance, irreversibly obscuring critical tokens and causing severe error accumulation over long sequences. To address this limitation, we propose DLA, a dynamic memory modeling framework for multi-state linear attention. DLA introduces (i) Information-Aware Dynamic State Merging, which adaptively determines state boundaries based on token-level information variation, preserving high-resolution representations around semantic transitions while aggressively summarizing stable regions, and (ii) Capacity-Bounded Memory Modeling, which maintains a fixed-size, chronologically ordered state cache by selectively merging adjacent low-information states to control memory growth with minimal information loss. We pre-train DLA on two different linear attention models and evaluate on 16 datasets across three categories. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of DLA over state-of-the-art.

Current state-of-the-art models for natural language understanding require a preprocessing step to convert raw text into discrete tokens. This process known as tokenization relies on a pre-built vocabulary of words or sub-word morphemes. This fixed vocabulary limits the model's robustness to spelling errors and its capacity to adapt to new domains. In this work, we introduce a novel open-vocabulary language model that adopts a hierarchical two-level approach: one at the word level and another at the sequence level. Concretely, we design an intra-word module that uses a shallow Transformer architecture to learn word representations from their characters, and a deep inter-word Transformer module that contextualizes each word representation by attending to the entire word sequence. Our model thus directly operates on character sequences with explicit awareness of word boundaries, but without biased sub-word or word-level vocabulary. Experiments on various downstream tasks show that our method outperforms strong baselines. We also demonstrate that our hierarchical model is robust to textual corruption and domain shift.

Visual tokens dominate inference cost in vision-language models (VLMs), yet many carry redundant information. Existing pruning methods alleviate this but typically rely on attention magnitude or similarity scores. We reformulate visual token pruning as capacity constrained communication: given a fixed budget K, the model must allocate limited bandwidth to maximally preserve visual information. We propose AutoSelect, which attaches a lightweight Scorer and Denoiser to a frozen VLM and trains with only the standard next token prediction loss, without auxiliary objectives or extra annotations. During training, a variance preserving noise gate modulates each token's information flow according to its predicted importance so that gradients propagate through all tokens; a diagonal attention Denoiser then recovers the perturbed representations. At inference, only the Scorer and a hard top-K selection remain, adding negligible latency. On ten VLM benchmarks, AutoSelect retains 96.5% of full model accuracy while accelerating LLM prefill by 2.85x with only 0.69 ms overhead, and transfers to different VLM backbones without architecture-specific tuning. Code is available at https://github.com/MedHK23/AutoSelect.

Looped transformers apply a shared block multiple times and have emerged as a parameter-efficient route to scaling compute in language models. However, at fixed FLOPs a looped model has strictly less capacity than a baseline transformer. We propose a novel dual-path block that can flexibly scale compute, the number of sequential operations applied to a hidden state, and capacity, the parameters available at a single step. For this we expose both axes as parallel pathways within a single layer: a deep sublayer re-applied K times with shared parameters, and a wide sublayer with an enlarged feed-forward network applied once. Independent per-token gates combine both axes and allow detailed per-token routing analyses. We show that across two FLOP budgets, our dual-path model surpasses iso-FLOP matched models on language modeling and downstream evaluations, while using fewer parameters than the baseline at matched FLOPs. The learned gates are directly interpretable and show systematic per-token allocation with function words and lexical content trend wide, while punctuation, symbols, and arithmetic tokens trend deep.

Scaling laws have made language-model performance predictable from model size, data, and compute, but they typically treat the optimizer as a fixed training detail. We show that this assumption misses a fundamental axis of representation scaling: how effectively the optimizer converts added FFN width into utilized spectral capacity. Using eigenspectra of feed-forward network representations, measured through soft and hard spectral-ranks, we find that the same Transformer architecture realizes markedly different spectral scaling laws when trained with different optimizers. Holding architecture and width schedule fixed, AdamW exhibits weak hard-rank scaling (β=0.44) on rare-token (TAIL) representations where learning is known to be hardest, whereas Muon achieves linear scaling (β=1.02) in the same regimes, a 2.3times increase in the scaling exponent. This difference is not reducible to validation loss: AdamW configurations can match low-rank Dion variants in perplexity, under extended training, while exhibiting sharply different spectral geometry, demonstrating that matched loss does not imply matched representation structure. Hard--soft rank asymmetry further reveals that optimizers differ not only in how much capacity is realized, but also in how that capacity is structured across eigenmodes. To disentangle optimizer effects from architectural ones, we compare against architectural interventions (e.g., attention rank and positional encoding), and find that optimizer-induced spectral shifts often exceed the architectural effects. These results suggest optimization as a first-class axis of representation scaling, motivating optimizer--architecture co-design.

As AI labs approach a data ceiling where compute capacity outpaces the rate of new high-quality text generation, language model pretraining is shifting toward a data-constrained, compute-abundant regime that demands productive multi-epoch training on fixed corpora. Standard autoregressive (AR) pretraining overfits severely in this setting, reaching its optimum early and then continuously deteriorating. We investigate training-time data augmentation as a regularizer to mitigate this overfitting and enable productive training for hundreds of epochs on the same data. We introduce three orthogonal categories of augmentation for AR pretraining: token-level noise (masking, random replacement), sequence permutations (right-to-left prediction, Fill-in-the-Middle), and target offset prediction (x_{t+i} for i > 1). Through systematic ablations, we find that individual augmentations delay overfitting and lower validation loss relative to the baseline, with random token replacement achieving the best minimum loss among individual methods. Combining augmentation categories further lowers the minimum validation loss. Our experiments demonstrate that data augmentations mitigate AR pretraining's data inefficiency and offer a promising solution to the data-constrained regime~\footnote{All code and data are available at https://github.com/ michaelchen-lab/ data-augmentations-for-pretraining.

World models represent a promising approach for training reinforcement learning agents with significantly improved sample efficiency. While most world model methods primarily rely on sequences of discrete latent variables to model environment dynamics, this compression often neglects critical visual details essential for reinforcement learning. Recent diffusion-based world models condition generation on a fixed context length of frames to predict the next observation, using separate recurrent neural networks to model rewards and termination signals. Although this architecture effectively enhances visual fidelity, the fixed context length approach inherently limits memory capacity. In this paper, we introduce EDELINE, a unified world model architecture that integrates state space models with diffusion models. Our approach outperforms existing baselines across visually challenging Atari 100k tasks, memory-demanding Crafter benchmark, and 3D first-person ViZDoom environments, demonstrating superior performance in all these diverse challenges.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been gaining increasing attention and demonstrated promising performance across a variety of Software Engineering (SE) tasks, such as Automated Program Repair (APR), code summarization, and code completion. For example, ChatGPT, the latest black-box LLM, has been investigated by numerous recent research studies and has shown impressive performance in various tasks. However, there exists a potential risk of data leakage since these LLMs are usually close-sourced with unknown specific training details, e.g., pre-training datasets. In this paper, we seek to review the bug-fixing capabilities of ChatGPT on a clean APR benchmark with different research objectives. We first introduce {\benchmark}, a new benchmark with buggy and the corresponding fixed programs from competitive programming problems starting from 2023, after the training cutoff point of ChatGPT. The results on {\benchmark} show that ChatGPT is able to fix 109 out of 151 buggy programs using the basic prompt within 35 independent rounds, outperforming state-of-the-art LLMs CodeT5 and PLBART by 27.5\% and 62.4\% prediction accuracy. We also investigate the impact of three types of prompts, i.e., problem description, error feedback, and bug localization, leading to additional 34 fixed bugs. Besides, we provide additional discussion from the interactive nature of ChatGPT to illustrate the capacity of a dialog-based repair workflow with 9 additional fixed bugs. Inspired by the findings, we further pinpoint various challenges and opportunities for advanced SE study equipped with such LLMs (e.g.,~ChatGPT) in the near future. More importantly, our work calls for more research on the reevaluation of the achievements obtained by existing black-box LLMs across various SE tasks, not limited to ChatGPT on APR.

We introduce an Outlier-Efficient Modern Hopfield Model (termed OutEffHop) and use it to address the outlier-induced challenge of quantizing gigantic transformer-based models. Our main contribution is a novel associative memory model facilitating outlier-efficient associative memory retrievals. Interestingly, this memory model manifests a model-based interpretation of an outlier-efficient attention mechanism (Softmax_1): it is an approximation of the memory retrieval process of OutEffHop. Methodologically, this allows us to debut novel outlier-efficient Hopfield layers a powerful attention alternative with superior post-quantization performance. Theoretically, the Outlier-Efficient Modern Hopfield Model retains and improves the desirable properties of the standard modern Hopfield models, including fixed point convergence and exponential storage capacity. Empirically, we demonstrate the proposed model's efficacy across large-scale transformer-based and Hopfield-based models (including BERT, OPT, ViT and STanHop-Net), benchmarking against state-of-the-art methods including Clipped_Softmax and Gated_Attention. Notably, OutEffHop achieves on average sim22+\% reductions in both average kurtosis and maximum infinity norm of model outputs accross 4 models.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has become the dominant architecture for scaling large language models: frontier models routinely decouple total parameters from per-token computation through sparse expert routing. Scaling laws show that under fixed active computation, model quality scales predictably with total parameters, and MoEs realize this by increasing expert count. However, training large MoEs is expensive, as memory requirements and inter-device communication both scale with total parameter count. We propose expert upcycling, a method for progressively expanding MoE capacity by increasing the number of experts during continued pre-training (CPT). Given a trained E-expert model, the upcycling operator constructs an mE-expert model through expert duplication and router extension while holding top-K routing fixed, preserving per-token inference cost. Duplication provides a warm initialization: the expanded model inherits the source checkpoint's learned representations, starting from a substantially lower loss than random initialization. Subsequent CPT then breaks the symmetry among duplicated experts to drive specialization. We formalize the upcycling operator and develop a theoretical framework decomposing the quality gap into a capacity term and an initialization term. We further introduce utility-based expert selection, which uses gradient-based importance scores to guide non-uniform duplication, more than tripling gap closure when CPT is limited. In our 7B-13B total parameter experiments, the upcycled model matches the fixed-size baseline on validation loss while saving 32% of GPU hours. Comprehensive ablations across model scales, activation ratios, MoE architectures, and training budgets yield a practical recipe for deploying expert upcycling, establishing it as a principled, compute-efficient alternative to training large MoE models from scratch.

Since the introduction of the Vision Transformer (ViT), researchers have sought to make ViTs more efficient by removing redundant information in the processed tokens. While different methods have been explored to achieve this goal, we still lack understanding of the resulting reduction patterns and how those patterns differ across token reduction methods and datasets. To close this gap, we set out to understand the reduction patterns of 10 different token reduction methods using four image classification datasets. By systematically comparing these methods on the different classification tasks, we find that the Top-K pruning method is a surprisingly strong baseline. Through in-depth analysis of the different methods, we determine that: the reduction patterns are generally not consistent when varying the capacity of the backbone model, the reduction patterns of pruning-based methods significantly differ from fixed radial patterns, and the reduction patterns of pruning-based methods are correlated across classification datasets. Finally we report that the similarity of reduction patterns is a moderate-to-strong proxy for model performance. Project page at https://vap.aau.dk/tokens.

Large Language Models (LLMs) present a critical trade-off between inference quality and computational cost: larger models offer superior capabilities but incur significant latency, while smaller models are faster but less powerful. Existing serving strategies often employ fixed model scales or static two-stage speculative decoding, failing to dynamically adapt to the varying complexities of user requests or fluctuations in system performance. This paper introduces , a novel framework that reimagines LLM inference as an adaptive routing problem solved through multi-level speculative decoding. dynamically constructs and optimizes inference "paths" (chains of models) based on real-time feedback, addressing the limitations of static approaches. Our contributions are threefold: (1) An adaptive model chain scheduling mechanism that leverages performance profiling (execution times) and predictive similarity metrics (derived from token distribution divergence) to continuously select the optimal sequence of draft and verifier models, minimizing predicted latency per generated token. (2) A multi-level collaborative verification framework where intermediate models within the selected chain can validate speculative tokens, reducing the verification burden on the final, most powerful target model. (3) A synchronized state management system providing efficient, consistent KV cache handling across heterogeneous models in the chain, including precise, low-overhead rollbacks tailored for asynchronous batch processing inherent in multi-level speculation. Preliminary experiments demonstrate the validity of our method.

The inherent rigidity of fixed-size benchmarks makes them an inefficient tool for model evaluation. Diverse evaluation objectives, including model ranking, model selection and testing throughout development, demand varying levels of statistical power. The mismatch between fixed sample sizes and these diverse needs results in either excessive computational cost or compromised reliability - a critical concern for model evaluation. To overcome these limitations, we call for adoption of sequential testing in our field. We provide an adaptive evaluation framework, that provides a principled way to navigate the trade-off between efficiency and reliability in model evaluation. Our framework combines the established statistical paradigm of sequential testing with stopping criteria tailored to common evaluation needs such as diminishing returns detection, and minimum detectable effect size. We demonstrate its ability to adaptively manage the efficiency-reliability trade-off on the Open VLM Leaderboard, including, for example, a 80% reduction in computational cost compared to fixed-size evaluation (with a 2.5-point CI width allowance) while maintaining statistical significance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a milestone in artificial intelligence, and their performance can improve as the model size increases. However, this scaling brings great challenges to training and inference efficiency, particularly for deploying LLMs in resource-constrained environments, and the scaling trend is becoming increasingly unsustainable. This paper introduces the concept of ``capacity density'' as a new metric to evaluate the quality of the LLMs across different scales and describes the trend of LLMs in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency. To calculate the capacity density of a given target LLM, we first introduce a set of reference models and develop a scaling law to predict the downstream performance of these reference models based on their parameter sizes. We then define the effective parameter size of the target LLM as the parameter size required by a reference model to achieve equivalent performance, and formalize the capacity density as the ratio of the effective parameter size to the actual parameter size of the target LLM. Capacity density provides a unified framework for assessing both model effectiveness and efficiency. Our further analysis of recent open-source base LLMs reveals an empirical law (the densing law)that the capacity density of LLMs grows exponentially over time. More specifically, using some widely used benchmarks for evaluation, the capacity density of LLMs doubles approximately every three months. The law provides new perspectives to guide future LLM development, emphasizing the importance of improving capacity density to achieve optimal results with minimal computational overhead.

We introduce the Fixed Point Diffusion Model (FPDM), a novel approach to image generation that integrates the concept of fixed point solving into the framework of diffusion-based generative modeling. Our approach embeds an implicit fixed point solving layer into the denoising network of a diffusion model, transforming the diffusion process into a sequence of closely-related fixed point problems. Combined with a new stochastic training method, this approach significantly reduces model size, reduces memory usage, and accelerates training. Moreover, it enables the development of two new techniques to improve sampling efficiency: reallocating computation across timesteps and reusing fixed point solutions between timesteps. We conduct extensive experiments with state-of-the-art models on ImageNet, FFHQ, CelebA-HQ, and LSUN-Church, demonstrating substantial improvements in performance and efficiency. Compared to the state-of-the-art DiT model, FPDM contains 87% fewer parameters, consumes 60% less memory during training, and improves image generation quality in situations where sampling computation or time is limited. Our code and pretrained models are available at https://lukemelas.github.io/fixed-point-diffusion-models.

Scaling the capacity of language models has consistently proven to be a reliable approach for improving performance and unlocking new capabilities. Capacity can be primarily defined by two dimensions: the number of model parameters and the compute per example. While scaling typically involves increasing both, the precise interplay between these factors and their combined contribution to overall capacity remains not fully understood. We explore this relationship in the context of sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs), which allow scaling the number of parameters without proportionally increasing the FLOPs per example. We investigate how varying the sparsity level, i.e., the fraction of inactive parameters, impacts model's performance during pretraining and downstream few-shot evaluation. We find that under different constraints (e.g., parameter size and total training compute), there is an optimal level of sparsity that improves both training efficiency and model performance. These results provide a better understanding of the impact of sparsity in scaling laws for MoEs and complement existing works in this area, offering insights for designing more efficient architectures.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

Training models with varying capacities can be advantageous for deploying them in different scenarios. While high-capacity models offer better performance, low-capacity models require fewer computing resources for training and inference. In this work, we propose a novel one-stop training framework to jointly train high-capacity and low-capactiy models. This framework consists of two composite model architectures and a joint training algorithm called Two-Stage Joint-Training (TSJT). Unlike knowledge distillation, where multiple capacity models are trained from scratch separately, our approach integrates supervisions from different capacity models simultaneously, leading to faster and more efficient convergence. Extensive experiments on the multilingual machine translation benchmark WMT10 show that our method outperforms low-capacity baseline models and achieves comparable or better performance on high-capacity models. Notably, the analysis demonstrates that our method significantly influences the initial training process, leading to more efficient convergence and superior solutions.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Model dimension (d_{model}) is a fundamental hyperparameter in transformer language models, yet its role in setting the geometric limits of feature representation remains under-explored. Grounded in the Linear Representation and Superposition Hypotheses - which propose that models encode features as near-orthogonal directions in latent space - we develop a framework for estimating how many such directions a model can support. We first establish the embedding matrix as a measurable proxy for near-orthogonality constraints across the latent space: the boundary between meaningful token relationships and incidental similarity in the pairwise cosine similarity distribution gives a concrete estimate of the model's accepted deviation varepsilon from perfect orthogonality. Applying this metric across dozens of open-source models reveals two classes: models with high varepsilon whose embeddings lack near-orthogonal structure, and models with low varepsilon that maintain it. We then show that the standard Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma greatly underestimates the packing efficiency of trained representations, and derive an adjusted capacity formula in which the number of near-orthogonal directions depends on the ratio of vectors to dimensions (k/d) rather than the raw count - a single modification that cuts prediction error by two orders of magnitude with no extra parameters. Combining these results, we define representational capacity as an upper bound on the number of distinguishable directions available for features and embeddings in a model's latent space. Capacity is exponentially sensitive to varepsilon, and larger models favor tighter orthogonality constraints over maximizing raw capacity - a pattern compatible with several explanations (a stability-capacity trade-off, a ceiling on usable concepts, or confounds with model scale) that we leave to future work.

When considering a model architecture, there are several ways to reduce its memory footprint. Historically, popular approaches included selecting smaller architectures and creating sparse networks through pruning. More recently, randomized parameter-sharing (RPS) methods have gained traction for model compression at start of training. In this paper, we comprehensively assess the trade-off between memory and accuracy across RPS, pruning techniques, and building smaller models. Our findings demonstrate that RPS, which is both data and model-agnostic, consistently outperforms/matches smaller models and all moderately informed pruning strategies, such as MAG, SNIP, SYNFLOW, and GRASP, across the entire compression range. This advantage becomes particularly pronounced in higher compression scenarios. Notably, even when compared to highly informed pruning techniques like Lottery Ticket Rewinding (LTR), RPS exhibits superior performance in high compression settings. This points out inherent capacity advantage that RPS enjoys over sparse models. Theoretically, we establish RPS as a superior technique in terms of memory-efficient representation when compared to pruning for linear models. This paper argues in favor of paradigm shift towards RPS based models. During our rigorous evaluation of RPS, we identified issues in the state-of-the-art RPS technique ROAST, specifically regarding stability (ROAST's sensitivity to initialization hyperparameters, often leading to divergence) and Pareto-continuity (ROAST's inability to recover the accuracy of the original model at zero compression). We provably address both of these issues. We refer to the modified RPS, which incorporates our improvements, as STABLE-RPS.

Recent years have witnessed the rapid advancements of large language models (LLMs) and their expanding applications, leading to soaring demands for computational resources. The widespread adoption of test-time scaling further aggravates the tension between model capability and resource consumption, highlighting the importance of inference efficiency. However, a unified metric that accurately reflects an LLM's efficiency across different model sizes and architectures remains absent. Motivated by the correlation between compression and intelligence, we introduce information capacity, a measure of model efficiency based on text compression performance relative to computational complexity. Larger models can predict the next token more accurately, achieving greater compression gains but at higher computational costs. Empirical evaluations on mainstream open-source models show that models of varying sizes within a series exhibit consistent information capacity. This metric enables a fair efficiency comparison across model series and accurate performance prediction within a model series. A distinctive feature of information capacity is that it incorporates tokenizer efficiency, which affects both input and output token counts but is often neglected in LLM evaluations. We assess the information capacity of 49 models on 5 heterogeneous datasets and observe consistent results on the influences of tokenizer efficiency, pretraining data, and the mixture-of-experts architecture.

Machine learning models are often used to decide who will receive a loan, a job interview, or a public benefit. Standard techniques to build these models use features about people but overlook their actionability. In turn, models can assign predictions that are fixed, meaning that consumers who are denied loans, interviews, or benefits may be permanently locked out from access to credit, employment, or assistance. In this work, we introduce a formal testing procedure to flag models that assign fixed predictions that we call recourse verification. We develop machinery to reliably determine if a given model can provide recourse to its decision subjects from a set of user-specified actionability constraints. We demonstrate how our tools can ensure recourse and adversarial robustness in real-world datasets and use them to study the infeasibility of recourse in real-world lending datasets. Our results highlight how models can inadvertently assign fixed predictions that permanently bar access, and we provide tools to design algorithms that account for actionability when developing models.

When using Large Language Models (LLMs) to support Knowledge Graph Engineering (KGE), one of the first indications when searching for an appropriate model is its size. According to the scaling laws, larger models typically show higher capabilities. However, in practice, resource costs are also an important factor and thus it makes sense to consider the ratio between model performance and costs. The LLM-KG-Bench framework enables the comparison of LLMs in the context of KGE tasks and assesses their capabilities of understanding and producing KGs and KG queries. Based on a dataset created in an LLM-KG-Bench run covering 26 open state-of-the-art LLMs, we explore the model size scaling laws specific to KGE tasks. In our analyses, we assess how benchmark scores evolve between different model size categories. Additionally, we inspect how the general score development of single models and families of models correlates to their size. Our analyses revealed that, with a few exceptions, the model size scaling laws generally also apply to the selected KGE tasks. However, in some cases, plateau or ceiling effects occurred, i.e., the task performance did not change much between a model and the next larger model. In these cases, smaller models could be considered to achieve high cost-effectiveness. Regarding models of the same family, sometimes larger models performed worse than smaller models of the same family. These effects occurred only locally. Hence it is advisable to additionally test the next smallest and largest model of the same family.

Motivated by the operational problems in click and collect systems, such as curbside pickup programs, we study a joint admission control and capacity allocation problem. We consider a system where arriving customers have preferred service delivery times and gauge the service quality based on the service provider's ability to complete the service as close as possible to the preferred time. Customers can be of different priority classes, and their priority may increase as they wait longer in the queue. The service provider can reject customers upon their arrival if the system is overloaded or outsource the service (alternatively work overtime) when the capacity is not enough. The service provider's goal is to find the minimum-cost admission and capacity allocation policy to dynamically decide when to serve and whom to serve. We model this problem as a Markov Decision Process. Our structural results partially characterize a set of suboptimal solutions, and we develop solution methods using these results. We also develop a problem-specific approximation method that is based on state aggregation to overcome the computational challenges. We present extensive computational results and discuss the impact of problem parameters on the optimal policy.

Self-conditioning is a core technique that enhances continuous flow-based language models, where the model learns to denoise generated text by conditioning on its own denoising estimate. While empirically successful, its performance improvements are poorly understood. Moreover, there is growing interest in the use of few-step generators based on flow maps, for which how to leverage self-conditioning is unclear. Here, we show that flow language models with self-conditioning solve a fixed-point iteration that bootstraps the performance of the learned denoiser. We use this viewpoint to formulate fixed-point flows, a two-dimensional class of self-conditioned flows, where the first dimension represents the flow process and the second represents the fixed-point iteration. We show that fixed-point flows define valid flow maps, and show that they can be distilled from self-conditioned flow models by compressing both fixed-point iterations and the flow process, the former with fixed-point distillation and the latter with flow map distillation. Our resulting flow map language model, FMLM^star, outperforms state-of-the-art self-conditioned models and few-step models in one- and few-step generation on OpenWebText. Code is available at https://github.com/Ugness/self-conditioned-fmlm.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

Non-cooperative game theory provides a robust framework for analyzing distributed resource allocation in multi-user wireless networks, with Iterative Water-Filling (IWF) emerging as a canonical solution for power control problems. Although classical fixed-point theorems guarantee the existence of a Nash Equilibrium (NE) under mild concavity and compactness conditions, the convergence of practical iterative algorithms to that equilibrium remains a challenging endeavor. This challenge intensifies under varying update schedules, interference regimes, and imperfections such as channel estimation errors or feedback delay. In this paper, we present an in-depth examination of IWF in multi-user systems under three different update schemes: (1) synchronous sequential updates, (2) synchronous simultaneous updates, and (3) totally asynchronous updates. We first formulate the water-filling operator in a multi-carrier environment, then recast the iterative process as a fixed-point problem. Using contraction mapping principles, we demonstrate sufficient conditions under which IWF converges to a unique NE and highlight how spectral radius constraints, diagonal dominance, and careful step-size selection are pivotal for guaranteeing convergence. We further discuss robustness to measurement noise, partial updates, and network scaling to emphasize the practical viability of these schemes. This comprehensive analysis unifies diverse threads in the literature while offering novel insights into asynchronous implementations. Our findings enable network designers to ascertain system parameters that foster both stable convergence and efficient spectrum usage.

Large language models store all learned knowledge in a single, fixed weight vector. Teaching a model new capabilities requires modifying those same weights, inevitably degrading previously acquired knowledge. This fundamental limitation, known as catastrophic forgetting, has resisted principled solutions for decades. Existing approaches treat weights as immutable artifacts that must be protected through techniques like regularization heuristics, replay buffers, or isolated adapter modules. The problem is none of these provide a structural guarantee against forgetting. In this work, we propose Non-Interfering Weight Fields (NIWF), a framework that replaces the fixed weight paradigm with a learned function that generates weight configurations on demand from a continuous capability coordinate space. After training on a task, we commit the occupied coordinate region by snapshotting the fields outputs on anchor points to enforce a functional lock during all future training. We validate NIWF on sequential instructionfollowing and code generation tasks using Mistral-7B, demonstrating zero forgetting on committed tasks with competitive perplexity on new tasks. The framework introduces the notion of software-like versioning for neural network intelligence, where capabilities can be committed, extended, composed, and rolled back without retraining.

A language model's memory can be worse than no memory at all when the model or its interface is disposed to act on it: a memory that keeps a wrong conclusion but drops the work behind it leads a model to re-emit the stale value as a confident answer, where an empty memory leads it to abstain. We call this brittle memory. The information loss is definitional; the finding is behavioral, and it turns on one thing, whether the memory kept a re-derivation basis (the source) rather than the answer. We measure it with reclaim evaluation: induce a known drift, compress at a fixed budget, deliver a correction that names the error, and score exact recovery, judge-free. Holding the budget fixed and varying only what the compression keeps isolates correctability from capability and from size; an 8B model and a frontier one wall in the same place. A one-line source-first policy, keep the recomputable source, drop the re-derivable conclusion, restores correctability at equal budget where the source is compact and identifiable, with a length-matched control ruling out "more text." We map where the fix fails, show the failure compounds through memory loops, and replicate across three deployed memory systems, real dialogue (MultiWOZ), and tau-bench, a deployed-agent benchmark where whether a lossy memory becomes a harmful action is a joint model-and-interface property. We release the harness, the paired memory conditions, and validators built to come out false.

Multi-turn LLM serving accumulates dialogue history whose Key-Value (KV) cache grows with every turn and every user, quickly exceeding the model weights themselves and making memory -- not compute -- the binding constraint on throughput. Non-uniform KV compression, which allocates heterogeneous budgets across attention heads, preserves accuracy far better than uniform schemes, yet remains impractical: modern serving stacks assume identical KV lengths across heads, so heterogeneity traps freed memory as page fragmentation, spends up to 25% of prefill time reclaiming scattered pages, and skews GPU workloads that inflate decode latency by up to 1.7times or burn 15--20% of each decode step on re-planning. We observe that this heterogeneity need not be discovered at runtime: head-wise retention follows a two-level structural regularity -- an input-invariant head ranking with narrowly bounded per-head ratios -- that can be calibrated offline from as few as 50 samples. Building on this insight, we present Tangram, a serving framework that statically resolves what prior systems handle dynamically: Budget Reservation fixes each head's post-compression footprint at scheduling time, eliminating page reclamation; Ragged Paging clusters similar-budget heads into independent page tables, turning fragmentation into reclaimable memory; and Ahead-of-Time Load Balancing precomputes balanced GPU partitions with zero runtime planning. Implemented on vLLM, Tangram serves as a drop-in substrate for existing non-uniform compression methods, matching their accuracy while improving end-to-end throughput by up to 2.6times over the full-KV baseline. Our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/aiha-lab/TANGRAM.

Scaling laws have shaped recent advances in machine learning by enabling predictable scaling of model performance based on model size, computation, and data volume. Concurrently, the rise in computational cost for AI has motivated model compression techniques, notably quantization and sparsification, which have emerged to mitigate the steep computational demands associated with large-scale training and inference. This paper investigates the interplay between scaling laws and compression formats, exploring whether a unified scaling framework can accurately predict model performance when training occurs over various compressed representations, such as sparse, scalar-quantized, sparse-quantized or even vector-quantized formats. Our key contributions include validating a general scaling law formulation and showing that it is applicable both individually but also composably across compression types. Based on this, our main finding is demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that there exists a simple "capacity" metric -- based on the representation's ability to fit random Gaussian data -- which can robustly predict parameter efficiency across multiple compressed representations. On the practical side, we extend our formulation to directly compare the accuracy potential of different compressed formats, and to derive better algorithms for training over sparse-quantized formats.

An important feature of many real world facility location problems are capacity limits on the facilities. We show here how capacity constraints make it harder to design strategy proof mechanisms for facility location, but counter-intuitively can improve the guarantees on how well we can approximate the optimal solution.

Serving systems for Large Language Models (LLMs) are often optimized to improve quality of service (QoS) and throughput. However, due to the lack of open-source LLM serving workloads, these systems are frequently evaluated under unrealistic workload assumptions. Consequently, performance may degrade when systems are deployed in real-world scenarios. This work presents BurstGPT, an LLM serving workload with 10.31 million traces from regional Azure OpenAI GPT services over 213 days. BurstGPT captures LLM serving characteristics from user, model and system perspectives: (1) User request concurrency: burstiness variations of requests in Azure OpenAI GPT services, revealing diversified concurrency patterns in different services and model types. (2) User conversation patterns: counts and intervals within conversations for service optimizations. (3) Model response lengths: auto-regressive serving processes of GPT models, showing statistical relations between requests and their responses. (4) System response failures: failures of conversation and API services, showing intensive resource needs and limited availability of LLM services in Azure. The details of the characteristics can serve multiple purposes in LLM serving optimizations, such as system evaluation and trace provisioning. In our demo evaluation with BurstGPT, frequent variations in BurstGPT reveal declines in efficiency, stability, or reliability in realistic LLM serving. We identify that the generalization of KV cache management, scheduling and disaggregation optimizations can be improved under realistic workload evaluations. BurstGPT is publicly available now at https://github.com/HPMLL/BurstGPT and is widely used to develop prototypes of LLM serving frameworks in the industry.

Large language models must satisfy hard orthographic constraints during controlled text generation, yet systematic cross-architecture evaluation remains limited. We evaluate 28 configurations spanning three model families (Qwen3, Claude Haiku-4.5, GPT-5-mini) on 58 word puzzles requiring character-level constraint satisfaction. Architectural differences produce substantially larger performance gaps (2.0-2.2x, F1=0.761 vs. 0.343) than parameter scaling within families (83% gain from eightfold scaling), suggesting that constraint satisfaction may require specialized architectural features or training objectives beyond standard language model scaling. Thinking budget sensitivity proves heterogeneous: high-capacity models show strong returns (+0.102 to +0.136 F1), while mid-sized variants saturate or degrade. These patterns are inconsistent with uniform compute benefits. Using difficulty ratings from 10,000 human solvers per puzzle, we establish modest but consistent calibration (r=0.24-0.38) across all families, yet identify systematic failures on common words with unusual orthography ("data", "poop", "loll": 86-95% human success, 89-96% model miss rate). These failures reveal over-reliance on distributional plausibility that penalizes orthographically atypical but constraint-valid patterns, suggesting architectural innovations may be required beyond simply scaling parameters or computational budgets.

The paper shows that the application of the fixed-effect multiple linear regression model to an overparameterized dataset is equivalent to fitting the data with a hyper-curve parameterized by a single scalar parameter. This equivalence allows for a predictor-focused approach, where each predictor is described by a function of the chosen parameter. It is proven that a linear model will produce exact predictions even in the presence of nonlinear dependencies that violate the model assumptions. Parameterization in terms of the dependent variable and the monomial basis in the predictor function space are applied here to both synthetic and experimental data. The hyper-curve approach is especially suited for the regularization of problems with noise in predictor variables and can be used to remove noisy and "improper" predictors from the model.

The rapid growth of large language models (LLMs) with diverse capabilities, costs, and domains has created a critical need for intelligent model selection at inference time. While smaller models suffice for routine queries, complex tasks demand more capable models. However, static model deployment does not account for the complexity and domain of incoming queries, leading to suboptimal performance and increased costs. Dynamic routing systems that adaptively select models based on query characteristics have emerged as a solution to this challenge. We provide a systematic analysis of state-of-the-art multi-LLM routing and cascading approaches. In contrast to mixture-of-experts architectures, which route within a single model, we study routing across multiple independently trained LLMs. We cover diverse routing paradigms, including query difficulty, human preferences, clustering, uncertainty quantification, reinforcement learning, multimodality, and cascading. For each paradigm, we analyze representative methods and examine key trade-offs. Beyond taxonomy, we introduce a conceptual framework that characterizes routing systems along three dimensions: when decisions are made, what information is used, and how they are computed. This perspective highlights that practical systems are often compositional, integrating multiple paradigms under operational constraints. Our analysis demonstrates that effective multi-LLM routing requires balancing competing objectives. Choosing the optimal routing strategy depends on deployment and computational constraints. Well-designed routing systems can outperform even the most powerful individual models by strategically leveraging specialized capabilities across models while maximizing efficiency gains. Meanwhile, open challenges remain in developing routing mechanisms that generalize across diverse architectures, modalities, and applications.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

We survey the large language model (LLM) serving area to understand the intricate dynamics between cost-efficiency and accuracy, which is magnified by the growing need for longer contextual understanding when deploying models at a massive scale. Our findings reveal that works in this space optimize along three distinct but conflicting goals: improving serving context length (C), improving serving accuracy (A), and improving serving performance (P). Drawing inspiration from the CAP theorem in databases, we propose a CAP principle for LLM serving, which suggests that any optimization can improve at most two of these three goals simultaneously. Our survey categorizes existing works within this framework. We find the definition and continuity of user-perceived measurement metrics are crucial in determining whether a goal has been met, akin to prior CAP databases in the wild. We recognize the CAP principle for LLM serving as a guiding principle, rather than a formal theorem, to inform designers of the inherent and dynamic trade-offs in serving models. As serving accuracy and performance have been extensively studied, this survey focuses on works that extend serving context length and address the resulting challenges.

While scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) during pre-training have been extensively studied, their behavior under reinforcement learning (RL) post-training remains largely unexplored. This paper presents a systematic empirical investigation of scaling behaviors in RL-based post-training, with a particular focus on mathematical reasoning. Based on a set of experiments across the full Qwen2.5 dense model series (0.5B to 72B), we characterize how model scale, data volume, and computational budget interact to shape performance. Our analysis leads to four key findings: 1.Larger models consistently exhibit superior learning efficiency on both compute and data metrics. 2.The relationship between test loss, compute, and data can be modeled by a predictive power-law which is robust across both base and instruction-tuned models. 3.Although larger models exhibit higher learning efficiency, the analytical learning efficiency term k(N) in the power-law reveals a latent saturation trend in learning efficiency as model size continues to increase. 4.In data-constrained regimes, repeated reuse of high-quality data proves highly effective, as final performance is primarily governed by the total number of optimization steps rather than the uniqueness of samples. Collectively, these results provide a principled foundation and practical guidelines for efficiently scaling the reasoning capabilities of LLMs through RL post-training.

Scaling laws describe the relationship between the size of language models and their capabilities. Unlike prior studies that evaluate a model's capability via loss or benchmarks, we estimate the number of knowledge bits a model stores. We focus on factual knowledge represented as tuples, such as (USA, capital, Washington D.C.) from a Wikipedia page. Through multiple controlled datasets, we establish that language models can and only can store 2 bits of knowledge per parameter, even when quantized to int8, and such knowledge can be flexibly extracted for downstream applications. Consequently, a 7B model can store 14B bits of knowledge, surpassing the English Wikipedia and textbooks combined based on our estimation. More broadly, we present 12 results on how (1) training duration, (2) model architecture, (3) quantization, (4) sparsity constraints such as MoE, and (5) data signal-to-noise ratio affect a model's knowledge storage capacity. Notable insights include: * The GPT-2 architecture, with rotary embedding, matches or even surpasses LLaMA/Mistral architectures in knowledge storage, particularly over shorter training durations. This arises because LLaMA/Mistral uses GatedMLP, which is less stable and harder to train. * Prepending training data with domain names (e.g., wikipedia.org) significantly increases a model's knowledge capacity. Language models can autonomously identify and prioritize domains rich in knowledge, optimizing their storage capacity.

We develop a tractable identification approach for strategic network formation models with both strategic link interdependence and individual unobserved heterogeneity (fixed effects). The key challenge is that endogenous network statistics (e.g. number of common friends) enter the link formation equation, while the mapping from model primitives to equilibrium network structure is generally intractable. Our approach sidesteps this difficulty using a ``bounding-by-c'' technique that treats endogenous covariates as random variables and exploits monotonicity restrictions to obtain identifying information. A central contribution is to develop a spectrum of fixed-effects handling strategies based on subnetwork configurations: tetrad-based restrictions that difference out all individual fixed effects, triad-based and weighted restrictions that combine ``difference-out'' and ``integrate-out'' steps by differencing out some fixed effects and profiling over the remainder conditional on observed characteristics, and general weighted cycle-based restrictions that unify these cases. We also provide point identification results. Preliminary simulations show that the approach can deliver informative bounds on the structural parameters.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) can exhibit impressive proficiency in isolated, short-term tasks, they often fail to maintain coherent performance over longer time horizons. In this paper, we present Vending-Bench, a simulated environment designed to specifically test an LLM-based agent's ability to manage a straightforward, long-running business scenario: operating a vending machine. Agents must balance inventories, place orders, set prices, and handle daily fees - tasks that are each simple but collectively, over long horizons (>20M tokens per run) stress an LLM's capacity for sustained, coherent decision-making. Our experiments reveal high variance in performance across multiple LLMs: Claude 3.5 Sonnet and o3-mini manage the machine well in most runs and turn a profit, but all models have runs that derail, either through misinterpreting delivery schedules, forgetting orders, or descending into tangential "meltdown" loops from which they rarely recover. We find no clear correlation between failures and the point at which the model's context window becomes full, suggesting that these breakdowns do not stem from memory limits. Apart from highlighting the high variance in performance over long time horizons, Vending-Bench also tests models' ability to acquire capital, a necessity in many hypothetical dangerous AI scenarios. We hope the benchmark can help in preparing for the advent of stronger AI systems.

Existing scaling laws for Large Language Models (LLMs), predominantly monotonic power laws, fail to explain emerging non-monotonic phenomena such as catastrophic overtraining and quantization-induced degradation, where performance deteriorates despite increased compute. We propose the Shannon Scaling Law, a unified theoretical framework that models LLM training as information transmission over a noisy channel, grounded in the Shannon-Hartley theorem. By mapping model parameters to channel bandwidth and training tokens to signal power, our formulation explicitly captures the interaction between learning signal and intrinsic noise. This perspective reveals a fundamental Shannon capacity for LLMs: scaling model size or data without preserving a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) inevitably amplifies noise, inducing a transition from monotonic improvement to U-shaped performance degradation. We validate our theory through experiments on Pythia and OLMo2 under perturbations, including Gaussian noise, quantization and supervised fine-tuning on math, QA and code tasks. The Shannon Scaling Law consistently outperforms classical scaling laws and recent perturbation-aware laws, achieving strong R^2 scores and accurately capturing loss basins missed by prior approaches. It also extrapolates: fitted on leq6.9B Pythia models with leq180B tokens, it predicts the unseen 12B model up to 307B tokens at pooled R^2{=}0.847, while monotonic baselines collapse.

The bandits with knapsack (BwK) framework models online decision-making problems in which an agent makes a sequence of decisions subject to resource consumption constraints. The traditional model assumes that each action consumes a non-negative amount of resources and the process ends when the initial budgets are fully depleted. We study a natural generalization of the BwK framework which allows non-monotonic resource utilization, i.e., resources can be replenished by a positive amount. We propose a best-of-both-worlds primal-dual template that can handle any online learning problem with replenishment for which a suitable primal regret minimizer exists. In particular, we provide the first positive results for the case of adversarial inputs by showing that our framework guarantees a constant competitive ratio alpha when B=Omega(T) or when the possible per-round replenishment is a positive constant. Moreover, under a stochastic input model, our algorithm yields an instance-independent O(T^{1/2}) regret bound which complements existing instance-dependent bounds for the same setting. Finally, we provide applications of our framework to some economic problems of practical relevance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are distinguished by their architecture, which dictates their parameter size and performance capabilities. Social scientists have increasingly adopted LLMs for text classification tasks, which are difficult to scale with human coders. While very large, closed-source models often deliver superior performance, their use presents significant risks. These include lack of transparency, potential exposure of sensitive data, challenges to replicability, and dependence on proprietary systems. Additionally, their high costs make them impractical for large-scale research projects. In contrast, open-source models, although available in various sizes, may underperform compared to commercial alternatives if used without further fine-tuning. However, open-source models offer distinct advantages: they can be run locally (ensuring data privacy), fine-tuned for specific tasks, shared within the research community, and integrated into reproducible workflows. This study demonstrates that small, fine-tuned open-source LLMs can achieve equal or superior performance to models such as ChatGPT-4. We further explore the relationship between training set size and fine-tuning efficacy in open-source models. Finally, we propose a hybrid workflow that leverages the strengths of both open and closed models, offering a balanced approach to performance, transparency, and reproducibility.

The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their parameters while processing an input. For these models, parameter count and computational requirement form two independent axes along which an increase leads to better performance. In this work we derive and justify scaling laws defined on these two variables which generalize those known for standard language models and describe the performance of a wide range of routing architectures trained via three different techniques. Afterwards we provide two applications of these laws: first deriving an Effective Parameter Count along which all models scale at the same rate, and then using the scaling coefficients to give a quantitative comparison of the three routing techniques considered. Our analysis derives from an extensive evaluation of Routing Networks across five orders of magnitude of size, including models with hundreds of experts and hundreds of billions of parameters.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales (C=50 and C=200) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

Deep Boltzmann machines (DBMs), one of the first ``deep'' learning methods ever studied, are multi-layered probabilistic models governed by a pairwise energy function that describes the likelihood of all variables/nodes in the network. In practice, DBMs are often constrained, i.e., via the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) architecture (which does not permit intra-layer connections), in order to allow for more efficient inference. In this work, we revisit the generic DBM approach, and ask the question: are there other possible restrictions to their design that would enable efficient (approximate) inference? In particular, we develop a new class of restricted model, the monotone DBM, which allows for arbitrary self-connection in each layer, but restricts the weights in a manner that guarantees the existence and global uniqueness of a mean-field fixed point. To do this, we leverage tools from the recently-proposed monotone Deep Equilibrium model and show that a particular choice of activation results in a fixed-point iteration that gives a variational mean-field solution. While this approach is still largely conceptual, it is the first architecture that allows for efficient approximate inference in fully-general weight structures for DBMs. We apply this approach to simple deep convolutional Boltzmann architectures and demonstrate that it allows for tasks such as the joint completion and classification of images, within a single deep probabilistic setting, while avoiding the pitfalls of mean-field inference in traditional RBMs.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

Large language model agents are increasingly evaluated as autonomous tool users, yet most benchmarks focus on bounded tasks with immediate success criteria. Real-world deployments often require Long-Term Coherence, the capacity to preserve purposeful behavior across extended horizons while adapting decisions to accumulated evidence. Evaluating this capacity requires a persistent environment in which actions constrain future choices, feedback arrives at heterogeneous delays, and incoherent behavior produces measurable cumulative effects. Seller-side e-commerce provides a suitable setting for this evaluation through recurrent and interdependent decisions over Product Sourcing, Listing and Pricing Control, Cash-Flow Management, and Mixed-Latency Feedback Adaptation. We introduce MerchantBench, a 365-day order-level simulation grounded in 98,843 real e-commerce product records and equipped with 26 tools for agent interaction. MerchantBench couples promptly observable Upstream Supplier Events with delayed Downstream Order Outcomes, requiring agents to follow individual order lifecycles and revisit earlier decisions. We evaluate eight LLMs under two agent frameworks in 48 runs, each spanning 365 simulated days. Our results reveal a substantial gap between even the latest LLMs and human participants, with the best LLM configuration attaining only 27.3\% of the mean final net assets achieved by human participants.

We investigate a failure mode of large language models (LLMs) in which plain-text prompts elicit excessive outputs, a phenomenon we term Overflow. Unlike jailbreaks or prompt injection, Overflow arises under ordinary interaction settings and can lead to elevated serving cost, latency, and cross-user performance degradation, particularly when scaled across many requests. Beyond usability, the stakes are economic and environmental: unnecessary tokens increase per-request cost and energy consumption, compounding into substantial operational spend and carbon footprint at scale. Moreover, Overflow represents a practical vector for compute amplification and service degradation in shared environments. We introduce BenchOverflow, a model-agnostic benchmark of nine plain-text prompting strategies that amplify output volume without adversarial suffixes or policy circumvention. Using a standardized protocol with a fixed budget of 5000 new tokens, we evaluate nine open- and closed-source models and observe pronounced rightward shifts and heavy tails in length distributions. Cap-saturation rates (CSR@1k/3k/5k) and empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs) quantify tail risk; within-prompt variance and cross-model correlations show that Overflow is broadly reproducible yet heterogeneous across families and attack vectors. A lightweight mitigation-a fixed conciseness reminder-attenuates right tails and lowers CSR for all strategies across the majority of models. Our findings position length control as a measurable reliability, cost, and sustainability concern rather than a stylistic quirk. By enabling standardized comparison of length-control robustness across models, BenchOverflow provides a practical basis for selecting deployments that minimize resource waste and operating expense, and for evaluating defenses that curb compute amplification without eroding task performance.

We introduce RecurrentGemma, an open language model which uses Google's novel Griffin architecture. Griffin combines linear recurrences with local attention to achieve excellent performance on language. It has a fixed-sized state, which reduces memory use and enables efficient inference on long sequences. We provide a pre-trained model with 2B non-embedding parameters, and an instruction tuned variant. Both models achieve comparable performance to Gemma-2B despite being trained on fewer tokens.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

The surprising ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform well on complex reasoning with only few-shot chain-of-thought prompts is believed to emerge only in very large-scale models (100+ billion parameters). We show that such abilities can, in fact, be distilled down from GPT-3.5 (ge 175B) to T5 variants (le 11B). We propose model specialization, to specialize the model's ability towards a target task. The hypothesis is that large models (commonly viewed as larger than 100B) have strong modeling power, but are spread on a large spectrum of tasks. Small models (commonly viewed as smaller than 10B) have limited model capacity, but if we concentrate their capacity on a specific target task, the model can achieve a decent improved performance. We use multi-step math reasoning as our testbed because it is a very typical emergent ability. We show two important aspects of model abilities: (1). there exists a very complex balance/ tradeoff between language models' multi-dimensional abilities; (2). by paying the price of decreased generic ability, we can clearly lift up the scaling curve of models smaller than 10B towards a specialized multi-step math reasoning ability. We further give comprehensive discussions about important design choices for better generalization, including the tuning data format, the start model checkpoint, and a new model selection method. We hope our practice and discoveries can serve as an important attempt towards specialized smaller models in the new research paradigm set by LLMs.

Dense associative memories (DAMs) store and retrieve patterns via energy-function based fixed points, but existing models are limited to vector representations. We extend DAMs to Gaussian densities equipped with the 2-Wasserstein distance. Our framework defines a log-sum-exp energy over stored distributions and a retrieval dynamics aggregating optimal transport maps in a Gibbs-weighted manner. Stationary points correspond to self-consistent Wasserstein barycenters, generalizing classical DAM fixed points. We prove exponential storage capacity and provide quantitative retrieval guarantees under Wasserstein perturbations. We validate the method on synthetic and real-world image (CelebA and CIFAR-10 datasets) and text (text8 and NLI corpus) datasets. By generalizing from vectors to distributions, our work bridges classical DAMs with modern generative modeling and paves way for distributional storage and retrieval in memory-augmented learning.

Existing large language models (LLMs) evaluations use fixed-difficulty benchmarks that cannot adapt as models improve, and rarely isolate specific cognitive processes. We introduce Working Memory Fidelity-Active Manipulation (WMF-AM), a probe of cumulative state tracking, the ability to maintain and update intermediate results across K sequential operations within a single query, without a scratchpad. Unlike multi-step agent benchmarks that stress task orchestration, WMF-AM isolates within-pass cumulative load by parameterizing depth K. The core probe uses arithmetic accumulation on 28 models from 12 families (0.5B to frontier); a matched non-arithmetic extension (permissions, schedules, inventories) confirms the design generalizes beyond arithmetic. Three construct-isolation ablations confirm that cumulative load, not arithmetic skill or entity tracking, drives difficulty. We release WMF-AM as a lightweight, recalibratable diagnostic for characterizing where models degrade under cumulative load. Code and data can be accessed at https://github.com/dengzhe-hou/WMF-AM

Financial institutions deploy Large Language Models (LLMs) for reconciliations, regulatory reporting, and client communications, but nondeterministic outputs (output drift) undermine auditability and trust. We quantify drift across five model architectures (7B-120B parameters) on regulated financial tasks, revealing a stark inverse relationship: smaller models (Granite-3-8B, Qwen2.5-7B) achieve 100% output consistency at T=0.0, while GPT-OSS-120B exhibits only 12.5% consistency (95% CI: 3.5-36.0%) regardless of configuration (p<0.0001, Fisher's exact test). This finding challenges conventional assumptions that larger models are universally superior for production deployment. Our contributions include: (i) a finance-calibrated deterministic test harness combining greedy decoding (T=0.0), fixed seeds, and SEC 10-K structure-aware retrieval ordering; (ii) task-specific invariant checking for RAG, JSON, and SQL outputs using finance-calibrated materiality thresholds (plus or minus 5%) and SEC citation validation; (iii) a three-tier model classification system enabling risk-appropriate deployment decisions; and (iv) an audit-ready attestation system with dual-provider validation. We evaluated five models (Qwen2.5-7B via Ollama, Granite-3-8B via IBM watsonx.ai, Llama-3.3-70B, Mistral-Medium-2505, and GPT-OSS-120B) across three regulated financial tasks. Across 480 runs (n=16 per condition), structured tasks (SQL) remain stable even at T=0.2, while RAG tasks show drift (25-75%), revealing task-dependent sensitivity. Cross-provider validation confirms deterministic behavior transfers between local and cloud deployments. We map our framework to Financial Stability Board (FSB), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requirements, demonstrating practical pathways for compliance-ready AI deployments.

Incrementally fine-tuning foundational models on new tasks or domains is now the de facto approach in NLP. A known pitfall of this approach is the catastrophic forgetting of prior knowledge that happens during fine-tuning. A common approach to alleviate such forgetting is to rehearse samples from prior tasks during fine-tuning. Several existing works assume a fixed memory buffer to store prior task examples, while relying on inferences (forward passes) with the model at hand for choosing examples for rehearsal from the buffer. However, given the increasing computational cost of model inference, and decreasing cost of data storage, we focus on the setting to rehearse samples with a fixed computational budget instead of a fixed memory budget. We propose a sampling scheme, \bf mix-cd, that prioritizes rehearsal of ``collateral damage'' samples, which are samples predicted correctly by the prior model but forgotten by the incrementally tuned one. The crux of our scheme is a procedure to efficiently estimate the density of collateral damage samples without incurring additional model inferences. Our approach is computationally efficient, easy to implement, and outperforms several leading continual learning methods in compute-constrained settings. All the code will be publicly available at https://github.com/jybai/mix-cd-rehearsal.

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant progress in advancing artificial general intelligence (AGI), leading to the development of increasingly large models such as GPT-4 and LLaMA-405B. However, scaling up model sizes results in exponentially higher computational costs and energy consumption, making these models impractical for academic researchers and businesses with limited resources. At the same time, Small Models (SMs) are frequently used in practical settings, although their significance is currently underestimated. This raises important questions about the role of small models in the era of LLMs, a topic that has received limited attention in prior research. In this work, we systematically examine the relationship between LLMs and SMs from two key perspectives: Collaboration and Competition. We hope this survey provides valuable insights for practitioners, fostering a deeper understanding of the contribution of small models and promoting more efficient use of computational resources. The code is available at https://github.com/tigerchen52/role_of_small_models

Large Language Models (LLMs) and other large foundation models have achieved noteworthy success, but their size exacerbates existing resource consumption and latency challenges. In particular, the large-scale deployment of these models is hindered by the significant resource requirements during inference. In this paper, we study two approaches for mitigating these challenges: employing a cache to store previous queries and learning a model multiplexer to choose from an ensemble of models for query processing. Theoretically, we provide an optimal algorithm for jointly optimizing both approaches to reduce the inference cost in both offline and online tabular settings. By combining a caching algorithm, namely Greedy Dual Size with Frequency (GDSF) or Least Expected Cost (LEC), with a model multiplexer, we achieve optimal rates in both offline and online settings. Empirically, simulations show that the combination of our caching and model multiplexing algorithms greatly improves over the baselines, with up to 50times improvement over the baseline when the ratio between the maximum cost and minimum cost is 100. Experiments on real datasets show a 4.3times improvement in FLOPs over the baseline when the ratio for FLOPs is 10, and a 1.8times improvement in latency when the ratio for average latency is 1.85.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly multilingual, yet open models continue to underperform relative to proprietary systems, with the gap most pronounced for African languages. Continued pre-training (CPT) offers a practical route to language adaptation, but improvements on demanding capabilities such as mathematical reasoning often remain limited. This limitation is driven in part by the uneven domain coverage and missing task-relevant knowledge that characterize many low-resource language corpora. We present AfriqueLLM, a suite of open LLMs adapted to 20 African languages through CPT on 26B tokens. We perform a comprehensive empirical study across five base models spanning sizes and architectures, including Llama 3.1, Gemma 3, and Qwen 3, and systematically analyze how CPT data composition shapes downstream performance. In particular, we vary mixtures that include math, code, and synthetic translated data, and evaluate the resulting models on a range of multilingual benchmarks. Our results identify data composition as the primary driver of CPT gains. Adding math, code, and synthetic translated data yields consistent improvements, including on reasoning-oriented evaluations. Within a fixed architecture, larger models typically improve performance, but architectural choices dominate scale when comparing across model families. Moreover, strong multilingual performance in the base model does not reliably predict post-CPT outcomes; robust architectures coupled with task-aligned data provide a more dependable recipe. Finally, our best models improve long-context performance, including document-level translation. Models have been released on [Huggingface](https://huggingface.co/collections/McGill-NLP/afriquellm).

LLM serving systems process heterogeneous query workloads where different categories exhibit different characteristics. Code queries cluster densely in embedding space while conversational queries distribute sparsely. Content staleness varies from minutes (stock data) to months (code patterns). Query repetition patterns range from power-law (code) to uniform (conversation), producing long tail cache hit rate distributions: high-repetition categories achieve 40-60% hit rates while low-repetition or volatile categories achieve 5-15% hit rates. Vector databases must exclude the long tail because remote search costs (30ms) require 15--20% hit rates to break even, leaving 20-30% of production traffic uncached. Uniform cache policies compound this problem: fixed thresholds cause false positives in dense spaces and miss valid paraphrases in sparse spaces; fixed TTLs waste memory or serve stale data. This paper presents category-aware semantic caching where similarity thresholds, TTLs, and quotas vary by query category. We present a hybrid architecture separating in-memory HNSW search from external document storage, reducing miss cost from 30ms to 2ms. This reduction makes low-hit-rate categories economically viable (break-even at 3-5% versus 15-20%), enabling cache coverage across the entire workload distribution. Adaptive load-based policies extend this framework to respond to downstream model load, dynamically adjusting thresholds and TTLs to reduce traffic to overloaded models by 9-17% in theoretical projections.

We introduce a scaling law for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) under fixed compute budgets that explicitly accounts for data composition. Conventional approaches measure training data solely by total tokens, yet the number of examples and their average token length -- what we term dataset volume -- play a decisive role in model performance. Our formulation is tuned following established procedures. Experiments on the BRICC dataset salavati2024reducing and subsets of the MMLU dataset hendrycks2021measuringmassivemultitasklanguage, evaluated under multiple subsampling strategies, reveal that data composition significantly affects token efficiency. These results motivate refined scaling laws for practical LLM fine-tuning in resource-constrained settings.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated human-like instruction-following abilities, particularly those exceeding 100 billion parameters. The combined capability of some smaller, resource-friendly LLMs can address most of the instructions that larger LLMs excel at. In this work, we explore how to route the best-performing LLM for each instruction to achieve better overall performance. We develop a new paradigm, constructing capability instructions with model capability representation, user instruction, and performance inquiry prompts to assess the performance. To learn from capability instructions, we introduce a new end-to-end framework called Model Selection with Aptitude Test (Model-SAT), which generates positive and negative samples based on what different models perform well or struggle with. Model-SAT uses a model capability encoder that extends its model representation to a lightweight LLM. Our experiments show that Model-SAT understands the performance dimensions of candidate models and provides the probabilities of their capability to handle various instructions. Additionally, during deployment, a new model can quickly infer its aptitude test results across 50 tasks, each with 20 shots. Model-SAT performs state-of-the-art model routing without candidate inference and in real-world new model-released scenarios. The code is available at https://github.com/Now-Join-Us/CIT-LLM-Routing

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) highlight a strong connection between intelligence and compression. Learned image compression, a fundamental task in modern data compression, has made significant progress in recent years. However, current models remain limited in scale, restricting their representation capacity, and how scaling model size influences compression performance remains unexplored. In this work, we present a pioneering study on scaling up learned image compression models and revealing the performance trends through scaling laws. Using the recent state-of-the-art HPCM model as baseline, we scale model parameters from 68.5 millions to 1 billion and fit power-law relations between test loss and key scaling variables, including model size and optimal training compute. The results reveal a scaling trend, enabling extrapolation to larger scale models. Experimental results demonstrate that the scaled-up HPCM-1B model achieves state-of-the-art rate-distortion performance. We hope this work inspires future exploration of large-scale compression models and deeper investigations into the connection between compression and intelligence.

The exploration and application of Large Language Models (LLMs) is thriving. To reduce deployment costs, continuous batching has become an essential feature in current service frameworks. The effectiveness of continuous batching relies on an accurate estimate of the memory requirements of requests. However, due to the diversity in request output lengths, existing frameworks tend to adopt aggressive or conservative schedulers, which often result in significant overestimation or underestimation of memory consumption. Consequently, they suffer from harmful request evictions or prolonged queuing times, failing to achieve satisfactory throughput under strict Service Level Agreement (SLA) guarantees (a.k.a. goodput), across various LLM application scenarios with differing input-output length distributions. To address this issue, we propose a novel Past-Future scheduler that precisely estimates the peak memory resources required by the running batch via considering the historical distribution of request output lengths and calculating memory occupancy at each future time point. It adapts to applications with all types of input-output length distributions, balancing the trade-off between request queuing and harmful evictions, thereby consistently achieving better goodput. Furthermore, to validate the effectiveness of the proposed scheduler, we developed a high-performance LLM serving framework, LightLLM, that implements the Past-Future scheduler. Compared to existing aggressive or conservative schedulers, LightLLM demonstrates superior goodput, achieving up to 2-3times higher goodput than other schedulers under heavy loads. LightLLM is open source to boost the research in such direction (https://github.com/ModelTC/lightllm).

We introduce UnpredictaBench, an evaluation that tests the ability of large language models (LLMs) to capture true underlying distributions. As LLMs are increasingly used as substitutes for other entities (e.g., for humans in economic simulations), the tendency of many models to collapse towards a single plausible answer means a failure to capture the unpredictability of real systems. Recent work on improving output diversity is insufficient for this setting: simulation requires samples that are calibrated to a target distribution, not merely varied outputs. UnpredictaBench isolates a simplified but fundamental version of this problem: sampling outcomes from individual target distributions, including canonical statistical distributions, distributions induced by stochastic programs, and natural-language scenarios that describe random processes. We introduce 448 such problems together with KS@N, a general-purpose evaluation metric that quantifies how well a model outputs approximate black-box target distributions via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. This is the rate at which we fail to reject model samples of size N against ground-truth samples, with larger N indicating greater difficulty. Tested across open and proprietary models, we find a large spread in distributional capabilities. For instance, when models generate samples of size 100 (KS@100, our standard metric), scores range from near 0 to over 20%. No model is able to achieve over 40% at KS@100, showing significant headroom in distributional sampling as a capability. Although adding reasoning can somewhat increase scores, we find no immediate solution for this issue. UnpredictaBench shows that even simple distributional simulation remains challenging, making it a necessary first step toward using LLMs as stand-ins for complex systems.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in important tasks such as natural language understanding, language generation, and complex reasoning and have the potential to make a substantial impact on our society. Such capabilities, however, come with the considerable resources they demand, highlighting the strong need to develop effective techniques for addressing their efficiency challenges. In this survey, we provide a systematic and comprehensive review of efficient LLMs research. We organize the literature in a taxonomy consisting of three main categories, covering distinct yet interconnected efficient LLMs topics from model-centric, data-centric, and framework-centric perspective, respectively. We have also created a GitHub repository where we compile the papers featured in this survey at https://github.com/AIoT-MLSys-Lab/EfficientLLMs, and will actively maintain this repository and incorporate new research as it emerges. We hope our survey can serve as a valuable resource to help researchers and practitioners gain a systematic understanding of the research developments in efficient LLMs and inspire them to contribute to this important and exciting field.

The deployment of ever-larger machine learning models reflects a growing consensus that the more expressive the modelx2013and the more data one has access tox2013the more one can improve performance. As models get deployed in a variety of real world scenarios, they inevitably face strategic environments. In this work, we consider the natural question of how the interplay of models and strategic interactions affects scaling laws. We find that strategic interactions can break the conventional view of scaling lawsx2013meaning that performance does not necessarily monotonically improve as models get larger and/ or more expressive (even with infinite data). We show the implications of this phenomenon in several contexts including strategic regression, strategic classification, and multi-agent reinforcement learning through examples of strategic environments in whichx2013by simply restricting the expressivity of one's model or policy classx2013one can achieve strictly better equilibrium outcomes. Motivated by these examples, we then propose a new paradigm for model-selection in games wherein an agent seeks to choose amongst different model classes to use as their action set in a game.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized numerous applications, yet their deployment remains challenged by memory constraints on local devices. While scaling laws have enhanced LLM capabilities, the primary bottleneck has shifted from capability to availability, emphasizing the need for efficient memory management. Traditional compression methods, such as quantization, often require predefined compression ratios and separate compression processes for each setting, complicating deployment in variable memory environments. In this paper, we introduce BitStack, a novel, training-free weight compression approach that enables megabyte-level trade-offs between memory usage and model performance. By leveraging weight decomposition, BitStack can dynamically adjust the model size with minimal transmission between running memory and storage devices. Our approach iteratively decomposes weight matrices while considering the significance of each parameter, resulting in an approximately 1-bit per parameter residual block in each decomposition iteration. These blocks are sorted and stacked in storage as basic transmission units, with different quantities loaded based on current memory availability. Extensive experiments across a wide range of tasks demonstrate that, despite offering fine-grained size control, BitStack consistently matches or surpasses strong quantization baselines, particularly at extreme compression ratios. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first decomposition-based method that effectively bridges the gap to practical compression techniques like quantization. Code is available at https://github.com/xinghaow99/BitStack.

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a significant stride toward Artificial General Intelligence. As scaling laws underscore the potential of increasing model sizes, the academic community has intensified its investigations into LLMs with capacities exceeding 50 billion parameters. This technical report builds on our prior work with Tele-FLM (also known as FLM-2), a publicly available 52-billion-parameter model. We delve into two primary areas: we first discuss our observation of Supervised Fine-tuning (SFT) on Tele-FLM-52B, which supports the "less is more" approach for SFT data construction; second, we demonstrate our experiments and analyses on the best practices for progressively growing a model from 52 billion to 102 billion, and subsequently to 1 trillion parameters. We will open-source a 1T model checkpoint, namely Tele-FLM-1T, to advance further training and research.

P. Kabamba developed generation theory as a tool for studying self-reproducing systems. We provide an alternative definition of a generation system and give a complete solution to the problem of finding optimal seeds for a finite self-replicating system. We also exhibit examples illustrating a connection between self-replication and fixed-point theory.

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) encapsulate large amounts of knowledge and take enormous amounts of compute to train. We make use of this resource, together with the observation that LLMs are able to transfer knowledge and performance from one domain or even modality to another seemingly-unrelated area, to help with multivariate demand time series forecasting. Attention in transformer-based methods requires something worth attending to -- more than just samples of a time-series. We explore different methods to map multivariate input time series into the LLM token embedding space. In particular, our novel multivariate patching strategy to embed time series features into decoder-only pre-trained Transformers produces results competitive with state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. We also use recently-developed weight-based diagnostics to validate our findings.

Foundation models are often used as fixed black-box predictors for downstream tasks with limited labeled data, but their predictions may be biased and unsafe to trust blindly. We study this setting through black-box assisted nonparametric regression: a learner observes labeled samples and can query a fixed predictor f_0, while the target f^* is close to f_0 in L_2(P_X) up to an unknown radius δ. We give a finite-sample minimax characterization showing a phase transition at δ_c(n) asymp n^{-β/(2β+d)}, with leading risk min{δ^2, n^{-2β/(2β+d)}}. We then analyze a Safe Residual Estimator: it learns a correction around f_0, initializes the residual head at zero so the initial predictor equals f_0, and uses holdout selection to revert to f_0 when the learned correction is not supported by validation data. Here, "safe" means avoiding negative transfer, i.e., performing worse than the black-box predictor alone. The estimator matches the leading minimax term up to an additive validation-selection cost. Synthetic regression experiments verify the predicted phase transition, while CIFAR-100 with CLIP and AG News with Qwen3-8B provide practice-facing evidence that the same residual-correction tradeoff is useful beyond the formal squared-loss regression setting.

In [7] Krotov and Hopfield suggest a generalized version of the well-known Hopfield model of associative memory. In their version they consider a polynomial interaction function and claim that this increases the storage capacity of the model. We prove this claim and take the "limit" as the degree of the polynomial becomes infinite, i.e. an exponential interaction function. With this interaction we prove that model has an exponential storage capacity in the number of neurons, yet the basins of attraction are almost as large as in the standard Hopfield model.

We propose the convergent graph solver (CGS), a deep learning method that learns iterative mappings to predict the properties of a graph system at its stationary state (fixed point) with guaranteed convergence. CGS systematically computes the fixed points of a target graph system and decodes them to estimate the stationary properties of the system without the prior knowledge of existing solvers or intermediate solutions. The forward propagation of CGS proceeds in three steps: (1) constructing the input dependent linear contracting iterative maps, (2) computing the fixed-points of the linear maps, and (3) decoding the fixed-points to estimate the properties. The contractivity of the constructed linear maps guarantees the existence and uniqueness of the fixed points following the Banach fixed point theorem. To train CGS efficiently, we also derive a tractable analytical expression for its gradient by leveraging the implicit function theorem. We evaluate the performance of CGS by applying it to various network-analytic and graph benchmark problems. The results indicate that CGS has competitive capabilities for predicting the stationary properties of graph systems, irrespective of whether the target systems are linear or non-linear. CGS also shows high performance for graph classification problems where the existence or the meaning of a fixed point is hard to be clearly defined, which highlights the potential of CGS as a general graph neural network architecture.

In this paper, we study the Hard Core (HC) model with a countable set mathbb Z of spin values on a Cayley tree of order k=2. This model is defined by a countable set of parameters (that is, the activity function λ_i>0, iin mathbb Z). A functional equation is obtained that provides the consistency condition for finite-dimensional Gibbs distributions. Analyzing this equation, the following results are obtained: Let kgeq 2 and Λ=sum_iλ_i. For Λ=+infty there is no translation-invariant Gibbs measure (TIGM); Let k=2 and Λ<+infty. For the model under constraint such that at G-admissible graph the loops are imposed at two vertices of the graph, the uniqueness of TIGM is proved; Let k=2 and Λ<+infty. For the model under constraint such that at G-admissible graph the loops are imposed at three vertices of the graph, the uniqueness and non-uniqueness conditions of TIGMs are found.

With the growth of model sizes and scale of their deployment, their sheer size burdens the infrastructure requiring more network and more storage to accommodate these. While there is a vast literature about reducing model sizes, we investigate a more traditional type of compression -- one that compresses the model to a smaller form and is coupled with a decompression algorithm that returns it to its original size -- namely lossless compression. Somewhat surprisingly, we show that such lossless compression can gain significant network and storage reduction on popular models, at times reducing over 50% of the model size. We investigate the source of model compressibility, introduce compression variants tailored for models and categorize models to compressibility groups. We also introduce a tunable lossy compression technique that can further reduce size even on the less compressible models with little to no effect on the model accuracy. We estimate that these methods could save over an ExaByte per month of network traffic downloaded from a large model hub like HuggingFace.

Using the weights of trained Neural Network (NN) models as data modality has recently gained traction as a research field - dubbed Weight Space Learning (WSL). Multiple recent works propose WSL methods to analyze models, evaluate methods, or synthesize weights. Weight space learning methods require populations of trained models as datasets for development and evaluation. However, existing collections of models - called `model zoos' - are unstructured or follow a rudimentary definition of diversity. In parallel, work rooted in statistical physics has identified phases and phase transitions in NN models. Models are homogeneous within the same phase but qualitatively differ from one phase to another. We combine the idea of `model zoos' with phase information to create a controlled notion of diversity in populations. We introduce 12 large-scale zoos that systematically cover known phases and vary over model architecture, size, and datasets. These datasets cover different modalities, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific ML. For every model, we compute loss landscape metrics and validate full coverage of the phases. With this dataset, we provide the community with a resource with a wide range of potential applications for WSL and beyond. Evidence suggests the loss landscape phase plays a role in applications such as model training, analysis, or sparsification. We demonstrate this in an exploratory study of the downstream methods like transfer learning or model weights averaging.

Every public LLM cost calculator we surveyed treats GPU utilization as a fixed input -- entered by the user, baked in as a preset, or silently assumed at 100% -- never measured against the operator's actual load. We show that this assumption is the dominant source of error: on identical H100 hardware, effective cost spans \0.21 to 15.25 per million output tokens, an underutilization penalty of 2.5-24x across low-to-moderate enterprise loads (1-10 rps) and up to 36.3x near idle -- driven by one operator-controlled variable, offered request rate lambda, which sets in-flight concurrency via Little's Law and which no open-source calculator exposes. Because calculators take utilization as a user-supplied input, any utilization-naive estimate understates true cost by exactly 1/U, systematically mispricing self-hosting -- most severely over-selling it for low-traffic workloads. We propose a measurement methodology that parameterizes the relationship as C_eff = f(H, M, Q, lambda, L), validate it with 42 benchmarks across dense, ultra-sparse MoE, and sparse MoE models, and release vllm-cost-meter, an open-source cost meter that attaches to a live vLLM server and reports real \$/M-tokens against the operator's own traffic. We further show that FP8 quantization benefits the MoE architectures we tested roughly 2.2-2.4x more than the dense model (+69 to +74% vs. +31% peak throughput; n=3, broader validation needed), and our data are consistent with active parameter count, not total model size, being a primary predictor of saturation economics. To rule out single-hardware confounding we repeat the core sweep on A100 80GB PCIe (56 runs): the load-driven spread reproduces at 7.0-11.4x, the active-parameters ordering survives at FP8, and the dense-FP8 advantage inverts on silicon without native FP8 tensor cores -- a hardware-conditional caveat the framework already accommodates.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely deployed to solve problems related to marketing attribution and budget optimization. However, AI models can be quite complex, and it can be difficult to understand model workings and insights without extensive implementation teams. In principle, recently developed large language models (LLMs), like GPT-4, can be deployed to provide marketing insights, reducing the time and effort required to make critical decisions. In practice, there are substantial challenges that need to be overcome to reliably use such models. We focus on domain-specific question-answering, SQL generation needed for data retrieval, and tabular analysis and show how a combination of semantic search, prompt engineering, and fine-tuning can be applied to dramatically improve the ability of LLMs to execute these tasks accurately. We compare both proprietary models, like GPT-4, and open-source models, like Llama-2-70b, as well as various embedding methods. These models are tested on sample use cases specific to marketing mix modeling and attribution.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

It is a common belief that large language models (LLMs) are better than smaller-sized ones. However, larger models also require significantly more time and compute during inference. This begs the question: what happens when both models operate under the same budget? (e.g., compute, run-time). To address this question, we analyze code generation LLMs of various sizes and make comparisons such as running a 70B model once vs. generating five outputs from a 13B model. We consider a standard unit-test setup, which can be used to select the correct output from the smaller model. Our findings reveal that the repeated use of smaller models can yield consistent improvements, with gains of up to 15% across five tasks. On the other hand, in scenarios where unit-tests are unavailable, a ranking-based selection of candidates from the smaller model falls short of the performance of a single output from larger ones. Our results highlight the potential of using smaller models instead of larger ones, and the importance of studying approaches for ranking LLM outputs.

Scaling model size, specifically depth and width, has driven significant progress in transformer-based language models. However, most architectures maintain a constant width across all layers, allocating a fixed parameter and computation budget evenly despite different layers potentially playing distinct computational roles. In this work, we empirically investigate nonuniform capacity allocation across network depth by proposing a times-shaped > <former architecture. This design maintains wider early and late layers while narrowing the middle layers, utilizing a parameter-free residual resizing mechanism. Across decoder-only language models ranging from 200M to 2B parameters (dense) and 3B parameters (MoE), our > <former consistently outperforms parameter-matched uniform baselines on language modeling loss. By reducing the average layer width, this architecture also requires fewer overall FLOPs (22% reduction under fitted loss-matched scaling curves) and smaller KV cache memory and I/O cost (15% reduction). In analysis, we show that this bottleneck structure results in qualitatively different representations in residual streams. Overall, our results demonstrate that nonuniform width allocation can result in more resource-optimal scaling of language models.

This paper reformulates the Greenwood and Guner (2009) marriage and divorce model in continuous time using the HACT methods of Achdou et al. (2022). Replacing the AR(1) match quality process with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process yields a tridiagonal generator, reducing the computational complexity of both the value function and stationary distribution calculations from quadratic to linear in the number of grid points. The continuous-time model closely replicates the discrete-time equilibrium across all key outcomes, including the share of married households, the marriage rate, and the divorce rate, while achieving substantial gains in computation time and memory usage.

Learning compatible representations enables the interchangeable use of semantic features as models are updated over time. This is particularly relevant in search and retrieval systems where it is crucial to avoid reprocessing of the gallery images with the updated model. While recent research has shown promising empirical evidence, there is still a lack of comprehensive theoretical understanding about learning compatible representations. In this paper, we demonstrate that the stationary representations learned by the d-Simplex fixed classifier optimally approximate compatibility representation according to the two inequality constraints of its formal definition. This not only establishes a solid foundation for future works in this line of research but also presents implications that can be exploited in practical learning scenarios. An exemplary application is the now-standard practice of downloading and fine-tuning new pre-trained models. Specifically, we show the strengths and critical issues of stationary representations in the case in which a model undergoing sequential fine-tuning is asynchronously replaced by downloading a better-performing model pre-trained elsewhere. Such a representation enables seamless delivery of retrieval service (i.e., no reprocessing of gallery images) and offers improved performance without operational disruptions during model replacement. Code available at: https://github.com/miccunifi/iamcl2r.

We introduce Compartmentalized Diffusion Models (CDM), a method to train different diffusion models (or prompts) on distinct data sources and arbitrarily compose them at inference time. The individual models can be trained in isolation, at different times, and on different distributions and domains and can be later composed to achieve performance comparable to a paragon model trained on all data simultaneously. Furthermore, each model only contains information about the subset of the data it was exposed to during training, enabling several forms of training data protection. In particular, CDMs are the first method to enable both selective forgetting and continual learning for large-scale diffusion models, as well as allowing serving customized models based on the user's access rights. CDMs also allow determining the importance of a subset of the data in generating particular samples.

Compression is fundamental to intelligence. A model that can represent its training data as a short code has discovered regularities that enable generalization. Large neural networks may learn functions far simpler than their parameter counts suggest, but it is challenging to construct codes that realize this simplicity. Parameter-based methods such as quantization produce code lengths that scale with model size, insensitive to how much information the parameters store. Prequential coding bypasses this issue by compressing the training trajectory, but codes the exact data sequence regardless of how much the model learns, yielding large codes when the data has high entropy. We introduce requential coding, where a teacher model selects training samples drawn from the student's own distribution. The student's code records only these selections, which cost bits only where teacher and student disagree. The resulting code length is independent of parameter count and data entropy, and often orders of magnitude shorter than the prequential counterpart, with an advantage that grows with scale. This compression sheds light on phenomena inaccessible to prior compressors. Holding loss fixed, larger models and ensembles compress to much smaller sizes despite more parameters. Plugged into a PAC-Bayes bound, the requential code yields state-of-the-art generalization guarantees for billion-parameter LLMs, outperforming bounds built on aggressive post-training quantization even granted zero error. The bound tightens with scale in the compute-optimal regime, as models become increasingly compressible relative to dataset size. The same code predicts that models gradually overfit when trained for multiple epochs. It also isolates the learnable information in a dataset from its unpredictable, random content, revealing that lower-entropy text holds far more learnable structure than higher-entropy image data.