Daily Papers

Agents with smaller language-model backbones are less expensive but can drift into persistent failure modes, whereas those with larger backbones are generally more reliable but more costly. This reliability-cost trade-off motivates routing methods that decide when to invoke an agent with a larger backbone: before execution, after a fixed trajectory prefix, or locally at individual steps. Our method, TACIT-SWITCH, learns permanent handoff policies from accumulated trajectory evidence and Teacher-Annotated Censored Intervention Times (TACIT). It represents each annotation as an interval-censored observation on a cumulative-risk scale. The resulting mixture-cure threshold model estimates the probability that the paired Strong rollout succeeds and, conditional on success, the handoff threshold; no teacher is required at deployment. In a mechanism-based multi-step simulation, TACIT-SWITCH improves success by 7.4-11.1 percentage points over task-level, step-level, and fixed-prefix routing baselines at comparable cost. Within that controlled simulation, ablations show that task features and cumulative trajectory risk provide complementary information. With operating points selected on development data, TACIT-SWITCH achieves the highest held-out success among learned policies on both ALFWorld (48.5% with 4B Cheap; 45.5% with 9B Cheap) and DABench (73.1%).

Survival analysis can sometimes involve individuals who will not experience the event of interest, forming what is known as the cured group. Identifying such individuals is not always possible beforehand, as they provide only right-censored data. Ignoring the presence of the cured group can introduce bias in the final model. This paper presents a method for estimating a semiparametric additive hazards model that accounts for the cured fraction. Unlike regression coefficients in a hazard ratio model, those in an additive hazard model measure hazard differences. The proposed method uses a primal-dual interior point algorithm to obtain constrained maximum penalized likelihood estimates of the model parameters, including the regression coefficients and the baseline hazard, subject to certain non-negativity constraints.

This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can capture the complex behavior of mortality rates at all ages, providing a more accurate representation of the data. To evaluate the performance of our model, we applied it to two countries with different data quality: Japan and Brazil. Our results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models in both countries, particularly in Japan where it obtained an absolute mean percentage error of less than 7%, while the other models presented values greater than 30%. This highlights the ability of our model to adapt to different data quality and country-specific mortality patterns. In summary, this paper presents a mixture-based model that captures the behavior of mortality rates at all ages and outperforms other widely used models in both high- and low-quality data settings. This model can improve mortality prediction and inform public health policy.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Analyzing outcomes in long-term cancer survivor studies can be complex. The effects of predictors on the failure process may be difficult to assess over longer periods of time, as the commonly used assumption of proportionality of hazards holding over an extended period is often questionable. In this manuscript, we compare seven different survival models that estimate the hazard rate and the effects of proportional and non-proportional covariates. In particular, we focus on an extension of the the multi-resolution hazard (MRH) estimator, combining a non-proportional hierarchical MRH approach with a data-driven pruning algorithm that allows for computational efficiency and produces robust estimates even in times of few observed failures. Using data from a large-scale randomized prostate cancer clinical trial, we examine patterns of biochemical failure and estimate the time-varying effects of androgen deprivation therapy treatment and other covariates. We compare the impact of different modeling strategies and smoothness assumptions on the estimated treatment effect. Our results show that the benefits of treatment diminish over time, possibly with implications for future treatment protocols.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

We study community recovery in the sparse symmetric stochastic block model with q communities, average degree d and signal strength λ through statistical decision theory and Fisher information, and obtain three characterizations of the Kesten-Stigum threshold dλ^2=1 and of the information-computation gap below it. First, on each community-size profile the minimax risk of any class of rules closed under averaging and vertex relabeling equals its Bayes risk under the uniform prior; the posterior mean is the unique Bayes rule and is admissible, and the Bayes risk of degree-D polynomial rules is the trivial risk times 1-Corr_D^2. Combined with known low-degree and information-theoretic results, this gives the gap as a worst-case statement: for qge 5 there is a window below the threshold in which no low-degree rule beats the trivial risk asymptotically, while an exponential-time rule does on a set of labelings of probability 1-o(1). Second, the Fisher information about λ carried by cycle counts is a series with terms of order k(dλ^2)^k, convergent exactly when dλ^2<1; below the threshold the relative error of every unbiased cycle-based estimator of λ^k stays above an explicit constant, and every cycle-count test has success probability bounded below one. Third, the derivative of belief propagation at its uninformative fixed point multiplies a random perturbation by |λ|d per iteration, and one EM step taken there leaves λ unchanged. A signal-to-noise computation recovers the condition dλ^{1/χ}>1 of Chin et al. for q=n^χ communities and identifies personalized PageRank as a walk count with suboptimal weights. Experiments on networks with up to 3times 10^5 vertices confirm the threshold for q=2, the hard window for q=5, and the many-community scaling.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models offer inference speedups via selective activation but impose substantial memory requirements because the whole network must remain loaded. Structured expert pruning is a practical approach for reducing deployment costs in resource-constrained settings. However, prior studies primarily evaluate benchmark utility, leaving the effect of pruning on factual reliability underexplored, particularly in high-stakes domains such as biomedicine. In this paper, we investigate how domain-specific expert pruning affects both utility and reliability. We assess four MoE models, six pruning methods, and multiple pruning ratios across generation and classification tasks under in-domain (biomedical) and cross-domain settings. Results reveal that moderate pruning preserves in-domain utility without immediate reliability decline, although hallucination risks increase at extreme pruning ratios. When shifting to the general domain, both utility and reliability degrade rapidly. These findings indicate that safe compression depends heavily on the task and domain. Evaluating pruned MoE models solely on utility is inadequate for high-stakes deployment without reliability assessment.

Sharp bounds on two potential-outcome means need not combine into sharp bounds on their difference. We characterize exactly when composition is guaranteed across environments sharing a joint potential-outcome law. For binary treatment and outcome, fix strict selection-probability bounds and interior treatment propensities. Subtracting the full model's sharp mean intervals gives sharp average-treatment-effect bounds for every compatible observed law if and only if the absolute selection bounds coincide across environments. Under this alignment, the complete mean region is rectangular; its endpoints and attaining causal models require O(K) arithmetic operations for K environments. For every mismatch, failure occurs on a relatively open set of positive observed tables at the prescribed propensities and persists under small joint drift. We give computable perturbation certificates and an exact family whose gap is first order in the mismatch. A separate finite-confounding family shows when the lost joint information changes an identified causal sign. These results distinguish local marginal sharpness from joint attainability after combining environments.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

The task of mixture proportion estimation (MPE) is to estimate the weight of a component distribution in a mixture, given observations from both the component and mixture. Previous work on MPE adopts the irreducibility assumption, which ensures identifiablity of the mixture proportion. In this paper, we propose a more general sufficient condition that accommodates several settings of interest where irreducibility does not hold. We further present a resampling-based meta-algorithm that takes any existing MPE algorithm designed to work under irreducibility and adapts it to work under our more general condition. Our approach empirically exhibits improved estimation performance relative to baseline methods and to a recently proposed regrouping-based algorithm.

Dirichlet Process mixture models (DPMM) in combination with Gaussian kernels have been an important modeling tool for numerous data domains arising from biological, physical, and social sciences. However, this versatility in applications does not extend to strong theoretical guarantees for the underlying parameter estimates, for which only a logarithmic rate is achieved. In this work, we (re)introduce and investigate a metric, named Orlicz-Wasserstein distance, in the study of the Bayesian contraction behavior for the parameters. We show that despite the overall slow convergence guarantees for all the parameters, posterior contraction for parameters happens at almost polynomial rates in outlier regions of the parameter space. Our theoretical results provide new insight in understanding the convergence behavior of parameters arising from various settings of hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. In addition, we provide an algorithm to compute the metric by leveraging Sinkhorn divergences and validate our findings through a simulation study.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

We use a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) model of prostate cancer evolution under intermittent androgen suppression (IAS) to study a threshold-based policy for therapy design. IAS is currently one of the most widely used treatments for advanced prostate cancer. Patients undergoing IAS are submitted to cycles of treatment (in the form of androgen deprivation) and off-treatment periods in an alternating manner. One of the main challenges in IAS is to optimally design a therapy scheme, i.e., to determine when to discontinue and recommence androgen suppression. The level of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in a patient's serum is frequently monitored to determine when the patient will be taken off therapy and when therapy will resume. The threshold-based policy we propose is parameterized by lower and upper PSA threshold values and is associated with a cost metric that combines clinically relevant measures of therapy success. Using Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA), we derive unbiased gradient estimators of this cost metric with respect to the controllable PSA threshold values based on actual data and show how these estimators can be used to adaptively adjust controllable parameters so as to improve therapy outcomes based on the cost metric defined.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) model incorporates the power of multiple submodels via gating functions to achieve greater performance in numerous regression and classification applications. From a theoretical perspective, while there have been previous attempts to comprehend the behavior of that model under the regression settings through the convergence analysis of maximum likelihood estimation in the Gaussian MoE model, such analysis under the setting of a classification problem has remained missing in the literature. We close this gap by establishing the convergence rates of density estimation and parameter estimation in the softmax gating multinomial logistic MoE model. Notably, when part of the expert parameters vanish, these rates are shown to be slower than polynomial rates owing to an inherent interaction between the softmax gating and expert functions via partial differential equations. To address this issue, we propose using a novel class of modified softmax gating functions which transform the input value before delivering them to the gating functions. As a result, the previous interaction disappears and the parameter estimation rates are significantly improved.

The strongest open-weight coding models are mixture-of-experts (MoE) networks: most of their size comes from large pools of "expert" subnetworks, of which only a few act on any token. That pool is why these models do not fit on the machines most developers own, yet for a user who only wants coding help, most experts encode abilities that will never be invoked. We ask how many experts can be removed, and which, by pruning two recent open-weight MoE models from different families (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B and Gemma-4-26B-A4B) under five selection strategies, judged the way a user would: by whether the model still writes correct code. Half the experts can be removed from either model with no statistically detectable loss on the primary code benchmark, and the damage lands almost entirely on abilities outside coding, the intended trade. But the winning strategy flips between the two models, so a recipe validated on one family cannot be assumed to work on another. We further show that perplexity, the metric much of the pruning literature leans on, can rate a broken model above an intact one; that a lightweight fine-tune recovers about half of what aggressive pruning loses; and that against quantizing the full model to the same memory, pruning wins only where quantization would have to drop below 3 bits per weight. Five attempts to overturn that crossover, with failure criteria fixed in advance (better calibration, guarded selection, causal expert importance, failure attribution, and an agentic evaluation letting each model repair its failures from execution feedback), all leave it standing; the last shows single-shot benchmarks overstate compression penalties broadly, as one repair turn erases the 2-bit quantization penalty entirely. Expert pruning works, but it demands per-model validation on the task the model will actually serve.

In mixtures-of-experts (ME) model, where a number of submodels (experts) are combined, there have been two longstanding problems: (i) how many experts should be chosen, given the size of the training data? (ii) given the total number of parameters, is it better to use a few very complex experts, or is it better to combine many simple experts? In this paper, we try to provide some insights to these problems through a theoretic study on a ME structure where m experts are mixed, with each expert being related to a polynomial regression model of order k. We study the convergence rate of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), in terms of how fast the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the estimated density converges to the true density, when the sample size n increases. The convergence rate is found to be dependent on both m and k, and certain choices of m and k are found to produce optimal convergence rates. Therefore, these results shed light on the two aforementioned important problems: on how to choose m, and on how m and k should be compromised, for achieving good convergence rates.

Pretraining data of large language models composes multiple domains (e.g., web texts, academic papers, codes), whose mixture proportions crucially impact the competence of outcome models. While existing endeavors rely on heuristics or qualitative strategies to tune the proportions, we discover the quantitative predictability of model performance regarding the mixture proportions in function forms, which we refer to as the data mixing laws. Fitting such functions on sample mixtures unveils model performance on unseen mixtures before actual runs, thus guiding the selection of an ideal data mixture. Furthermore, we propose nested use of the scaling laws of training steps, model sizes, and our data mixing law to enable predicting the performance of large models trained on massive data under various mixtures with only small-scale training. Moreover, experimental results verify that our method effectively optimizes the training mixture of a 1B model trained for 100B tokens in RedPajama, reaching a performance comparable to the one trained for 48% more steps on the default mixture. Extending the application of data mixing laws to continual training accurately predicts the critical mixture proportion that avoids catastrophic forgetting and outlooks the potential for dynamic data schedules

Multilevel data are prevalent in many real-world applications. However, it remains an open research problem to identify and justify a class of models that flexibly capture a wide range of multilevel data. Motivated by the versatility of the mixture of experts (MoE) models in fitting regression data, in this article we extend upon the MoE and study a class of mixed MoE (MMoE) models for multilevel data. Under some regularity conditions, we prove that the MMoE is dense in the space of any continuous mixed effects models in the sense of weak convergence. As a result, the MMoE has a potential to accurately resemble almost all characteristics inherited in multilevel data, including the marginal distributions, dependence structures, regression links, random intercepts and random slopes. In a particular case where the multilevel data is hierarchical, we further show that a nested version of the MMoE universally approximates a broad range of dependence structures of the random effects among different factor levels.

Mixture of Experts (MoE), an ensemble of specialized models equipped with a router that dynamically distributes each input to appropriate experts, has achieved successful results in the field of machine learning. However, theoretical understanding of this architecture is falling behind due to its inherent complexity. In this paper, we theoretically study the sample and runtime complexity of MoE following the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) when learning a regression task with an underlying cluster structure of single index models. On the one hand, we prove that a vanilla neural network fails in detecting such a latent organization as it can only process the problem as a whole. This is intrinsically related to the concept of information exponent which is low for each cluster, but increases when we consider the entire task. On the other hand, we show that a MoE succeeds in dividing this problem into easier subproblems by leveraging the ability of each expert to weakly recover the simpler function corresponding to an individual cluster. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to explore the benefits of the MoE framework by examining its SGD dynamics in the context of nonlinear regression.

Sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) models expand parameter capacity by activating a small subset of experts per token. Expert selection directly affects model capabilities under a fixed active-expert budget. Dense evaluation of all experts reveals weak agreement between single-router rankings and expert-utility evaluation rankings, especially in middle and deep layers. Richer signals for selection and computation incur additional cost: selection based on internal expert activations requires preliminary computation, while processing multiple full representations separately through the same expert repeats its computation. We propose Multi-View MoE to improve expert selection with multiple routers and reuse their preferences to modulate expert computation under a fixed expert budget. Its Multi-Router submodule aggregates sigmoid scores from independently initialized routers. These routers develop highly differentiated expert preferences during training, allowing experts strongly favored by one router or jointly supported by several routers to be selected. Multi-View further uses each selected expert's relative scores across routers to mix learned latent views into its input, reusing routing preferences for both selection and computation. Each selected expert executes one forward pass, preserving the active-expert count, expert FLOPs, and all-to-all communication volume. On a 24-layer 10B-A1B model trained on 708B tokens, full Multi-View MoE improves the nine-task downstream mean by 1.18 percentage points over the baseline. Multi-Router alone yields a 0.6-percentage-point gain and improves the rank correlation between router scores and evaluated expert utility, with relative increases of 8.1% globally and approximately 58% in the layer with the lowest single-router alignment. Controlled mixing interventions show the model uses input differences that depend on both the expert and the token.

The Makeham term is a crucial element in mortality modeling, representing a constant additive hazard that addresses background mortality factors unrelated to aging. Widely used in mortality analysis, this term enables the capture of risks not linked to age-related decline. This paper aims to explore the relationship between Makeham mortality models and competing risk frameworks, investigating how Makeham models can be analyzed within the context of competing risks. It provides insights into the mathematical properties, interpretation, and applicability of Makeham models in modeling mortality risks associated with various causes of death. Additionally, it demonstrates that competing risk models can be represented as mixture models, enhancing understanding of mortality dynamics. The contribution lies in showing that Makeham mortality models, when represented as mixtures, offer a straightforward specification that can accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and distinguish between senescent and extrinsic mortality. By expressing Makeham models as a convex combination of probability distributions, the paper allows the estimation of premature mortality profiles, particularly at older ages, where most deaths are assumed to be senescent. It also facilitates the estimation of senescent mortality, which is crucial for studying the aging process.

The problems of detecting and recovering planted structures/subgraphs in Erdős-Rényi random graphs, have received significant attention over the past three decades, leading to many exciting results and mathematical techniques. However, prior work has largely focused on specific ad hoc planted structures and inferential settings, while a general theory has remained elusive. In this paper, we bridge this gap by investigating the detection of an arbitrary planted subgraph Γ= Γ_n in an Erdős-Rényi random graph G(n, q_n), where the edge probability within Γ is p_n. We examine both the statistical and computational aspects of this problem and establish the following results. In the dense regime, where the edge probabilities p_n and q_n are fixed, we tightly characterize the information-theoretic and computational thresholds for detecting Γ, and provide conditions under which a computational-statistical gap arises. Most notably, these thresholds depend on Γ only through its number of edges, maximum degree, and maximum subgraph density. Our lower and upper bounds are general and apply to any value of p_n and q_n as functions of n. Accordingly, we also analyze the sparse regime where q_n = Θ(n^{-α}) and p_n-q_n =Θ(q_n), with αin[0,2], as well as the critical regime where p_n=1-o(1) and q_n = Θ(n^{-α}), both of which have been widely studied, for specific choices of Γ. For these regimes, we show that our bounds are tight for all planted subgraphs investigated in the literature thus farand many more. Finally, we identify conditions under which detection undergoes sharp phase transition, where the boundaries at which algorithms succeed or fail shift abruptly as a function of q_n.

Mixture of experts (MoE) has a well-principled finite mixture model construction for prediction, allowing the gating network (mixture weights) to learn from the predictors (explanatory variables) together with the experts' network (mixture component densities). We investigate the estimation properties of MoEs in a high-dimensional setting, where the number of predictors is much larger than the sample size, for which the literature lacks computational and especially theoretical results. We consider the class of finite MoE models with softmax gating functions and Gaussian regression experts, and focus on the theoretical properties of their l_1-regularized estimation via the Lasso. We provide a lower bound on the regularization parameter of the Lasso penalty that ensures an l_1-oracle inequality is satisfied by the Lasso estimator according to the Kullback--Leibler loss. We further state an l_1-ball oracle inequality for the l_1-penalized maximum likelihood estimator from the model selection.

Whether a language model has improved itself is increasingly judged not by mean accuracy but by which individual problems it gains and loses. Tracking these transitions means differencing two noisy estimates, leaving them vulnerable to measurement artifacts. Auditing three rounds of rank-32 LoRA self-training on Qwen3-8B against a frozen control pushed through the identical pipeline, we identify seven measurement failures, each of which inverts a reported finding when its control is absent. Several are standard practice. A ledger built on a single greedy decode manufactures capability changes on an untrained model, largely an artifact of inference batching; the expansion statistic separating acquisition from sharpening assigns that same model a rate of 0.280. The natural threshold repair does not survive replication: estimated across the frozen comparisons such a design already contains, its null stays non-zero. We replace it with a per-problem exact test against a pooled baseline under false-discovery-rate control, which detects nothing on any held-out replicate and is unchanged under the multiple-testing rule, error rate and pool size. Applied to a ladder of arms matched in stream, volume and evaluation, the audit finds that external distillation improves problems the base model rarely reaches while three forms of self-training do not; a regression rejects this asymmetry as a by-product of distillation's larger overall gain (p < 10^{-8}). On the far smaller set of problems the base model never reaches, the evidence is inconclusive, while self-training corrupts problems solved at baseline at rates well above the measured floor. Transition-level auditing therefore requires a separately measured null for every statistic it reports: nulls that cost no new experiments, built from baseline replicates a multi-arm study already owns, though not from as few as most possess.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

We study estimation and clustering in Gaussian mixture models under variance misspecification. Observations are generated with true variance σ^2, while the component means are estimated using a likelihood with variance τ^2, yielding a family of mismatched likelihood functions parameterized by the ratio ρ=τ/σ. We show that the interplay between ρ and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) induces a sharp phase diagram. Under correct specification (ρ=1), maximum likelihood recovers the true means, independently of the SNR. However, once the model is misspecified, two different regimes emerge. Under under-smoothing (ρ<1), the estimated Gaussian means are displaced from the truth, and in low SNR this discrepancy grows as the SNR decreases: for every fixed ρ<1, the squared error scales as SNR^{-1}. Under over-smoothing (ρ>1), the fitted likelihood blurs the cluster separation, causing distinct component means to collapse towards the overall mixture center once ρ^2 exceeds a threshold of the form 1 + λ,SNR, where λ depends on the geometry of the true means. We further show that the hard assignment objective arises as the limit τto 0 of the same mismatched likelihood family, and derive corresponding low- and high-SNR results for hard-assignment mean estimation and latent-label recovery. Furthermore, in low SNR, Bayes-optimal clustering is close to random guessing, and the hard-assignment target remains far from the true means. These results show that in low-SNR applications, even mild variance misspecification or hard-assignment procedures can induce substantial bias, whereas in high SNR these effects are largely absent.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) offers remarkable performance and computational efficiency by selectively activating subsets of model parameters. Traditionally, MoE models use homogeneous experts, each with identical capacity. However, varying complexity in input data necessitates experts with diverse capabilities, while homogeneous MoE hinders effective expert specialization and efficient parameter utilization. In this study, we propose a novel Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts (HMoE), where experts differ in size and thus possess diverse capacities. This heterogeneity allows for more specialized experts to handle varying token complexities more effectively. To address the imbalance in expert activation, we propose a novel training objective that encourages the frequent activation of smaller experts, enhancing computational efficiency and parameter utilization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HMoE achieves lower loss with fewer activated parameters and outperforms conventional homogeneous MoE models on various pre-training evaluation benchmarks. Codes will be released upon acceptance.

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) models activate few experts per token but store the full expert pool. Expert pruning reduces this storage burden; at a fixed pruning budget, the goal is to preserve the original model's output distribution as closely as possible. Yet an expert's usage or contribution magnitude does not by itself determine the damage caused by its removal. What matters is whether the surviving computation can replace its function. We introduce RAZOR, a training-free expert pruning method that scores functional replaceability using consensus residuals: deviations of expert outputs from the original weighted mixture. An exact single-deletion identity at a fixed layer input accounts for survivor renormalization and router-selected refill, providing local scores aggregated over calibration tokens for budgeted pruning without gradients or recovery training. On GLM-4.7-Flash, Qwen3.6-35B-A3B, DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, and Hy3 at 25\% and 50\% expert removal, RAZOR achieves the highest nine-task macro average among the evaluated pruning methods in all eight settings. On the two backbones with matched REAP benchmark runs, it exceeds REAP by 2.12--5.59 points and wins all 36 paired task comparisons. It also lowers reverse KL relative to REAP in all four matched GLM-4.7-Flash and Qwen3.6-35B-A3B model--budget settings. Analysis of responses generated by Qwen3.6-35B-A3B nevertheless reveals changes in diversity, formatting, and termination, underscoring that task retention and predictive fidelity do not ensure generation stability.

Token-choice Mixture-of-Experts (TC-MoE) routes each token to a fixed number of experts, limiting dynamic computation allocation and requiring auxiliary losses to maintain load balance. We propose Expert Threshold (ET) routing, where each expert maintains an exponential moving average (EMA) threshold estimated from the global token distribution. At both training and inference, each token is independently routed to an expert if its score exceeds the expert's threshold, enabling dynamic computation allocation while achieving load balance without auxiliary losses. This fully causal mechanism eliminates dependence on other tokens in the batch, making it well-suited for autoregressive language modeling. In pretraining experiments scaling to 2.4B parameters on FineWeb-Edu, ET achieves 0.067 lower cross-entropy loss than TC-MoE, equivalent to reaching the same performance with 1.6times fewer tokens.

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers route tokens through a handful of experts, and learning-free compression of these layers reduces inference cost without retraining. A subtle obstruction blocks every existing compressor in this family: three experts can each be pairwise compatible yet form an irreducible cycle when merged together, so any score that ranks experts on pairwise signals is structurally blind to which triples are jointly mergeable. We show the obstruction is a precise mathematical object, the harmonic kernel of the simplicial Laplacian on a 2-complex whose vertices are experts, whose edges carry KL merge barriers, and whose faces carry triplet barriers; Hodge-decomposing the edge-barrier signal isolates the kernel exactly. We turn the diagnostic into a selection objective: HodgeCover greedily covers the harmonic-critical edges and triplet-critical triangles, and a hybrid variant of HodgeCover pairs it with off-the-shelf weight pruning on survivors. On three open-weight Sparse MoE backbones under aggressive expert reduction, HodgeCover matches state-of-the-art learning-free baselines on the expert-reduction axis, leads on the aggressive-compression frontier of the hybrid axis, and uniquely balances retained mass across all four Hodge components. These results show that exposing the harmonic kernel of a learned MoE structure changes which compressor wins at the regime that matters most.

Curriculum learning plays a crucial role in enhancing the training efficiency of large language models (LLMs) on reasoning tasks. However, existing methods often fail to adequately account for variations in prompt difficulty or rely on simplistic filtering mechanisms to select prompt datasets within a narrow criterion range, resulting in significant computational waste. In this work, we approach the problem from the perspective of reinforcement learning gradient optimization, offering a systematic and theoretical investigation into how to improve the training efficiency of LLMs. We identify two key factors influencing training efficiency: the selection of training prompts and the allocation of rollout quantities across different prompts. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the sampling distribution of prompts dictates the convergence rate of gradient descent, while the allocation of the rollout quantity influences the consistency and stability of overall gradient updates. Based on these insights, we propose CurES, an efficient training method that accelerates convergence and employs Bayesian posterior estimation to minimize computational overhead. Experiments demonstrate that our CurES outperforms Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) by +3.30 points and +4.82 points with 1.5B and 7B models, respectively. Additionally, CurES exhibits faster convergence compared to baselines, including GRPO.

This work proposes a new data-driven model devised to integrate process knowledge into its structure to increase the human-machine synergy in the process industry. The proposed Contextual Mixture of Experts (cMoE) explicitly uses process knowledge along the model learning stage to mold the historical data to represent operators' context related to the process through possibility distributions. This model was evaluated in two real case studies for quality prediction, including a sulfur recovery unit and a polymerization process. The contextual mixture of experts was employed to represent different contexts in both experiments. The results indicate that integrating process knowledge has increased predictive performance while improving interpretability by providing insights into the variables affecting the process's different regimes.

In deep learning, models typically reuse the same parameters for all inputs. Mixture of Experts (MoE) defies this and instead selects different parameters for each incoming example. The result is a sparsely-activated model -- with outrageous numbers of parameters -- but a constant computational cost. However, despite several notable successes of MoE, widespread adoption has been hindered by complexity, communication costs and training instability -- we address these with the Switch Transformer. We simplify the MoE routing algorithm and design intuitive improved models with reduced communication and computational costs. Our proposed training techniques help wrangle the instabilities and we show large sparse models may be trained, for the first time, with lower precision (bfloat16) formats. We design models based off T5-Base and T5-Large to obtain up to 7x increases in pre-training speed with the same computational resources. These improvements extend into multilingual settings where we measure gains over the mT5-Base version across all 101 languages. Finally, we advance the current scale of language models by pre-training up to trillion parameter models on the "Colossal Clean Crawled Corpus" and achieve a 4x speedup over the T5-XXL model.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models suffer from large parameter counts, which create a significant memory bottleneck. Expert pruning is the most direct approach for reducing this parameter count, yet existing methods make pruning decisions for each expert independently, and assume experts' contributions are purely additive. In reality, expert usage in MoEs is inherently cooperative. We derive HOPE (Higher-Order Pruning of Experts), a second-order pruning objective which provably minimizes an upper bound on the error resulting from pruning. We show that REAP (a state-of-the-art first-order pruning method) is a special case of HOPE where interaction terms are ignored. Across three frontier MoE models (up to 122B parameters), two distinct calibration sets, and multiple benchmarks (including math, instruction following, coding, and an agentic suite), we demonstrate that HOPE produces better pruning decisions than existing methods, and its advantage is most pronounced at high pruning rates and on challenging agentic workloads. At 50% pruning, HOPE outperforms all baselines and achieves an average rank of 1.58 out of 5 methods (versus 2.42 for the next-best method, REAP), with gains of up to +6.1% on agentic coding. Over all conditions, HOPE again achieves the best average rank and surpasses every other method in the majority of head-to-head comparisons. By preserving cooperative expert structure that first-order methods ignore, HOPE enables aggressive compression with minimal degradation, particularly on complex tasks where diverse expert combinations are invoked over long sequences.

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

Sparse models, including sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, have emerged as an effective approach for scaling Transformer models. However, they often suffer from computational inefficiency since a significant number of parameters are unnecessarily involved in computations via multiplying values by zero or low activation values. To address this issue, we present \tool, a novel MoE designed to enhance both the efficacy and efficiency of sparse MoE models. \tool leverages small experts and a threshold-based router to enable tokens to selectively engage only essential parameters. Our extensive experiments on language modeling and machine translation tasks demonstrate that \tool can enhance model performance while decreasing the computation load at MoE layers by over 50\% without sacrificing performance. Furthermore, we present the versatility of \tool by applying it to dense models, enabling sparse computation during inference. We provide a comprehensive analysis and make our code available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/XMoE.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

Understanding the parameter estimation of softmax gating Gaussian mixture of experts has remained a long-standing open problem in the literature. It is mainly due to three fundamental theoretical challenges associated with the softmax gating function: (i) the identifiability only up to the translation of parameters; (ii) the intrinsic interaction via partial differential equations between the softmax gating and the expert functions in the Gaussian density; (iii) the complex dependence between the numerator and denominator of the conditional density of softmax gating Gaussian mixture of experts. We resolve these challenges by proposing novel Voronoi loss functions among parameters and establishing the convergence rates of maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for solving parameter estimation in these models. When the true number of experts is unknown and over-specified, our findings show a connection between the convergence rate of the MLE and a solvability problem of a system of polynomial equations.

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Modern Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models are designed based on total parameters (memory footprint) and active parameters (inference cost). However, we find these two factors alone are insufficient to describe an optimal architecture. Through a systematic study, we demonstrate that MoE performance is primarily determined by total parameters (N_{total}) and expert sparsity (s:=n_{exp}/n_{topk}). Moreover, n_{exp} and n_{topk} do not "cancel out" within the sparsity ratio; instead, a larger total number of experts slightly penalizes performance by forcing a reduction in core model dimensions (depth and width) to meet memory constraints. This motivates a simple principle for MoE design which maximizes N_{total} while minimizing s (maximizing n_{topk}) and n_{exp} under the given constraints. Our findings provide a robust framework for resolving architectural ambiguity and guiding MoE design.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) architectures have significantly increased computational efficiency in both research and real-world applications of large-scale machine learning models. However, their scalability and efficiency under memory constraints remain relatively underexplored. In this work, we present joint scaling laws for dense and MoE models, incorporating key factors such as the number of active parameters, dataset size, and the number of experts. Our findings provide a principled framework for selecting the optimal MoE configuration under fixed memory and compute budgets. Surprisingly, we show that MoE models can be more memory-efficient than dense models, contradicting conventional wisdom. To derive and validate the theoretical predictions of our scaling laws, we conduct over 280 experiments with up to 2.7B active parameters and up to 5B total parameters. These results offer actionable insights for designing and deploying MoE models in practical large-scale training scenarios.

The inherent rigidity of fixed-size benchmarks makes them an inefficient tool for model evaluation. Diverse evaluation objectives, including model ranking, model selection and testing throughout development, demand varying levels of statistical power. The mismatch between fixed sample sizes and these diverse needs results in either excessive computational cost or compromised reliability - a critical concern for model evaluation. To overcome these limitations, we call for adoption of sequential testing in our field. We provide an adaptive evaluation framework, that provides a principled way to navigate the trade-off between efficiency and reliability in model evaluation. Our framework combines the established statistical paradigm of sequential testing with stopping criteria tailored to common evaluation needs such as diminishing returns detection, and minimum detectable effect size. We demonstrate its ability to adaptively manage the efficiency-reliability trade-off on the Open VLM Leaderboard, including, for example, a 80% reduction in computational cost compared to fixed-size evaluation (with a 2.5-point CI width allowance) while maintaining statistical significance.

Dense-to-sparse gating mixture of experts (MoE) has recently become an effective alternative to a well-known sparse MoE. Rather than fixing the number of activated experts as in the latter model, which could limit the investigation of potential experts, the former model utilizes the temperature to control the softmax weight distribution and the sparsity of the MoE during training in order to stabilize the expert specialization. Nevertheless, while there are previous attempts to theoretically comprehend the sparse MoE, a comprehensive analysis of the dense-to-sparse gating MoE has remained elusive. Therefore, we aim to explore the impacts of the dense-to-sparse gate on the maximum likelihood estimation under the Gaussian MoE in this paper. We demonstrate that due to interactions between the temperature and other model parameters via some partial differential equations, the convergence rates of parameter estimations are slower than any polynomial rates, and could be as slow as O(1/log(n)), where n denotes the sample size. To address this issue, we propose using a novel activation dense-to-sparse gate, which routes the output of a linear layer to an activation function before delivering them to the softmax function. By imposing linearly independence conditions on the activation function and its derivatives, we show that the parameter estimation rates are significantly improved to polynomial rates.

Exemplar methods separate a mixture by picking one learned spectrum per source and deforming it until it explains the observation, making one deformation class both reconstructor and selector. We show that the second role is empty as soon as the class can interpolate: the rule then ranks candidates on its regulariser, a choice made before the data, and the estimates sum back to the mixture whichever candidate wins. The condition is a parameter count, so the diagnosis runs before any experiment. On free per-bin deformation of complex spectra it explains the observed pathologies at once: a criterion that ranks candidates by their loudness, and half an output that is a mask on the mixture rather than an exemplar. The same theorem prescribes the repair, a selection class poorer than the reconstruction class: one complex gain and one pure delay rank the candidates, and a local combination of the best-aligned atoms, fitted jointly in closed form, rebuilds them. On MUSDB18 against the exact ceiling of the masking class, the distance between the criterion and an oracle inside its own candidate pool falls under the rigid selector from 6.2-7.7 to 0.5-2.8 dB, though only 0.9-1.2 dB of that reaches the output, and the per-frame latency of the deployed rule by a factor of 47 to 806. One lock remains, quantified: atoms are scored against the mixture, so the score carries a term for the other source that absorbs the capacity the reconstruction class gains, leaving the output 10.0 dB under the ceiling. Ranking hypotheses by the residual of a fit free enough to interpolate ranks them on the regulariser alone.

Sparse Mixture of Expert (SMoE) models have emerged as a scalable alternative to dense models in language modeling. These models use conditionally activated feedforward subnetworks in transformer blocks, allowing for a separation between total model parameters and per-example computation. However, large token-routed SMoE models face a significant challenge: during inference, the entire model must be used for a sequence or a batch, resulting in high latencies in a distributed setting that offsets the advantages of per-token sparse activation. Our research explores task-specific model pruning to inform decisions about designing SMoE architectures, mainly modulating the choice of expert counts in pretraining. We investigate whether such pruned models offer advantages over smaller SMoE models trained from scratch, when evaluating and comparing them individually on tasks. To that end, we introduce an adaptive task-aware pruning technique UNCURL to reduce the number of experts per MoE layer in an offline manner post-training. Our findings reveal a threshold pruning factor for the reduction that depends on the number of experts used in pretraining, above which, the reduction starts to degrade model performance. These insights contribute to our understanding of model design choices when pretraining with SMoE architectures, particularly useful when considering task-specific inference optimization for later stages.

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

This article initiates the study of a basic question about model pruning. Given a vector s of importance scores assigned to model components, how many of the scored components could be discarded without sacrificing performance? We propose Effective Model Pruning (EMP), which derives the desired sparsity directly from the score distribution using the notion of effective sample size from particle filtering, also known as the inverse Simpson index. Rather than prescribe a pruning criterion, EMP supplies a universal adaptive threshold derived from the distribution of the score s over the model components: EMP maps s to a number N_{eff}=N_{eff}(s), called the effective sample size. The N-N_{eff} lowest scoring components are discarded. A tight lower bound on the effective mass s_{eff} (the sum of retained normalized scores) in terms of N_{eff} is derived. This process yields models with a provable upper bound on the loss change relative to the original dense model. Numerical experiments are performed demonstrating this phenomenon across a variety of network architectures including MLPs, CNNs, Transformers, LLMs, and KAN. It is also shown that EMP addresses a rich set of pruning criteria such as weight magnitude, attention score, KAN importance score, and even feature-level signals such as image pixels.

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and derived quantities such as quantiles, which coherently quantifies the epistemic uncertainty on any target estimand of interest. As the predictive recursions are based on an underlying nonparametric model (a Dirichlet process mixture model), our method naturally inherits robustness with respect to restrictive parametric assumptions. In addition, implementation of our method is typically very fast. This approach can be applied to marginal or conditional counterfactual distributions and is easily extended to an instrumental variables setup. Using the concept of almost conditionally identically distributed random variables, we prove convergence of the martingale posterior inference on the counterfactual outcome distributions for the causal models considered in the paper. We illustrate our approach on both simulated and real data. Using the latter, we investigate the effect of zinc lozenges on common cold duration, the impact of vitamin A supplementation on children's survival rates with one-sided non-compliance (analysed in Imbens and Rubin, 1997a) and the effect of job training (LaLonde, 1986).

We study sparse recovery when observations come from mixed-quality sources: a small collection of high-quality measurements with small noise variance and a larger collection of lower-quality measurements with higher variance. For this heterogeneous-noise setting, we establish sample-size conditions for information-theoretic and algorithmic recovery. On the information-theoretic side, we show that it is sufficient for (n_1, n_2) to satisfy a linear trade-off defining the Price of Quality: the number of low-quality samples needed to replace one high-quality sample. In the agnostic setting, where the decoder is completely agnostic to the quality of the data, it is uniformly bounded, and in particular one high-quality sample is never worth more than two low-quality samples for this sufficient condition to hold. In the informed setting, where the decoder is informed of per-sample variances, the price of quality can grow arbitrarily large. On the algorithmic side, we analyze the LASSO in the agnostic setting and show that the recovery threshold matches the homogeneous-noise case and only depends on the average noise level, revealing a striking robustness of computational recovery to data heterogeneity. Together, these results give the first conditions for sparse recovery with mixed-quality data and expose a fundamental difference between how the information-theoretic and algorithmic thresholds adapt to changes in data quality.

The Mixtures-of-Experts (MoE) model is a widespread distributed and integrated learning method for large language models (LLM), which is favored due to its ability to sparsify and expand models efficiently. However, the performance of MoE is limited by load imbalance and high latency of All-To-All communication, along with relatively redundant computation owing to large expert capacity. Load imbalance may result from existing routing policies that consistently tend to select certain experts. The frequent inter-node communication in the All-To-All procedure also significantly prolongs the training time. To alleviate the above performance problems, we propose a novel routing strategy that combines load balance and locality by converting partial inter-node communication to that of intra-node. Notably, we elucidate that there is a minimum threshold for expert capacity, calculated through the maximal angular deviation between the gating weights of the experts and the assigned tokens. We port these modifications on the PanGu-Sigma model based on the MindSpore framework with multi-level routing and conduct experiments on Ascend clusters. The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed LocMoE reduces training time per epoch by 12.68% to 22.24% compared to classical routers, such as hash router and switch router, without impacting the model accuracy.

The emergence of large-scale Mixture of Experts (MoE) models has marked a significant advancement in artificial intelligence, offering enhanced model capacity and computational efficiency through conditional computation. However, the deployment and inference of these models present substantial challenges in terms of computational resources, latency, and energy efficiency. This comprehensive survey systematically analyzes the current landscape of inference optimization techniques for MoE models across the entire system stack. We first establish a taxonomical framework that categorizes optimization approaches into model-level, system-level, and hardware-level optimizations. At the model level, we examine architectural innovations including efficient expert design, attention mechanisms, various compression techniques such as pruning, quantization, and knowledge distillation, as well as algorithm improvement including dynamic routing strategies and expert merging methods. At the system level, we investigate distributed computing approaches, load balancing mechanisms, and efficient scheduling algorithms that enable scalable deployment. Furthermore, we delve into hardware-specific optimizations and co-design strategies that maximize throughput and energy efficiency. This survey not only provides a structured overview of existing solutions but also identifies key challenges and promising research directions in MoE inference optimization. Our comprehensive analysis serves as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners working on large-scale deployment of MoE models in resource-constrained environments. To facilitate ongoing updates and the sharing of cutting-edge advances in MoE inference optimization research, we have established a repository accessible at https://github.com/MoE-Inf/awesome-moe-inference/.

The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of a Gaussian location mixture maximizes the likelihood over the infinite-dimensional space of mixing distributions. The maximizing mixing distribution can be nonunique, and the classical bound on its number of atoms grows linearly with the sample size n. We show that a vanishingly small random perturbation of the likelihood yields exact polylogarithmic sparsity. The resulting randomly reweighted NPMLE maximizes a weighted likelihood whose independent weights, taken to be Gamma in our analysis, concentrate around one as n grows. With high probability, it is unique, has O{(log n/loglog n)^d+log n} atoms in dimension d, nearly maximizes the ordinary likelihood, and estimates the mixture density at a Hellinger rate that is parametric up to logarithmic factors. This sparsity holds for the estimator itself, not for an approximation of it, and requires no support penalty. The proof rests on an effective-dimension principle for positive kernel mixtures: low-dimensional variation of the fitted values controls the support of every extreme point of the set of maximizers. Numerical illustrations verify that the reweighted NPMLE has Hellinger risk and support size comparable to those of the ordinary NPMLE.

Mixture of Expert Tuning (MoE-Tuning) has effectively enhanced the performance of general MLLMs with fewer parameters, yet its application in resource-limited medical settings has not been fully explored. To address this gap, we developed MoE-TinyMed, a model tailored for medical applications that significantly lowers parameter demands. In evaluations on the VQA-RAD, SLAKE, and Path-VQA datasets, MoE-TinyMed outperformed LLaVA-Med in all Med-VQA closed settings with just 3.6B parameters. Additionally, a streamlined version with 2B parameters surpassed LLaVA-Med's performance in PathVQA, showcasing its effectiveness in resource-limited healthcare settings.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

In large-scale pretraining, the algorithm, architecture, and systems decisions are conventionally made in disconnected stages. A scaling law stage selects an architecture and training recipe, optimizing loss under compute constraints, and a separate systems stage then optimizes the implementation for hardware efficiency. In this work, we develop MOSAIC, which formulates model architecture and systems co-design as an optimization problem. MOSAIC couples a predictive scaling law with a calibrated performance model that estimates Model FLOPs Utilization (MFU), communication cost, memory footprint, and the best parallel layout. We instantiate the framework for sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models, where expert count, routing sparsity, and other MoE layer dimensions affect both the loss and systems efficiency. We fit a scaling law on sparse MoE models trained on text data, whose scaling dimensions include the sparsity factor, which is the fraction of model parameters inactive per token in a forward pass. The scaling law sweeps in our work span active parameters from 104 million to 2.7 billion and total model sizes reaching 79 billion parameters. We show that, within the calibrated sparsity range, an efficiency-agnostic model-FLOPs budget admits no interior optimal sparsity. The fitted loss decreases monotonically with sparser models and the compute optimum lies at the upper boundary of the data support. An optimal sparsity in MoE models instead emerges under the cluster's systems constraints, as captured by MOSAIC. Our results argue for a shift towards unified architecture and systems co-design for frontier language model training.

Sparse mixture of experts (SMoE) offers an appealing solution to scale up the model complexity beyond the mean of increasing the network's depth or width. However, effective training of SMoE has proven to be challenging due to the representation collapse issue, which causes parameter redundancy and limited representation potentials. In this work, we propose a competition mechanism to address this fundamental challenge of representation collapse. By routing inputs only to experts with the highest neural response, we show that, under mild assumptions, competition enjoys the same convergence rate as the optimal estimator. We further propose CompeteSMoE, an effective and efficient algorithm to train large language models by deploying a simple router that predicts the competition outcomes. Consequently, CompeteSMoE enjoys strong performance gains from the competition routing policy while having low computation overheads. Our extensive empirical evaluations on two transformer architectures and a wide range of tasks demonstrate the efficacy, robustness, and scalability of CompeteSMoE compared to state-of-the-art SMoE strategies.

Scaling the capacity of language models has consistently proven to be a reliable approach for improving performance and unlocking new capabilities. Capacity can be primarily defined by two dimensions: the number of model parameters and the compute per example. While scaling typically involves increasing both, the precise interplay between these factors and their combined contribution to overall capacity remains not fully understood. We explore this relationship in the context of sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs), which allow scaling the number of parameters without proportionally increasing the FLOPs per example. We investigate how varying the sparsity level, i.e., the fraction of inactive parameters, impacts model's performance during pretraining and downstream few-shot evaluation. We find that under different constraints (e.g., parameter size and total training compute), there is an optimal level of sparsity that improves both training efficiency and model performance. These results provide a better understanding of the impact of sparsity in scaling laws for MoEs and complement existing works in this area, offering insights for designing more efficient architectures.

With the growing prominence of the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture in developing large-scale foundation models, we investigate the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HMoE), a specialized variant of MoE that excels in handling complex inputs and improving performance on targeted tasks. Our analysis highlights the advantages of using the Laplace gating function over the traditional Softmax gating within the HMoE frameworks. We theoretically demonstrate that applying the Laplace gating function at both levels of the HMoE model helps eliminate undesirable parameter interactions caused by the Softmax gating and, therefore, accelerates the expert convergence as well as enhances the expert specialization. Empirical validation across diverse scenarios supports these theoretical claims. This includes large-scale multimodal tasks, image classification, and latent domain discovery and prediction tasks, where our modified HMoE models show great performance improvements compared to the conventional HMoE models.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) has emerged as a pivotal architectural paradigm for efficient scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs), operating through selective activation of parameter subsets for each input token. Nevertheless, conventional MoE architectures encounter substantial challenges, including excessive memory utilization and communication overhead during training and inference, primarily attributable to the proliferation of expert modules. In this paper, we introduce Mixture of Latent Experts (MoLE), a novel parameterization methodology that facilitates the mapping of specific experts into a shared latent space. Specifically, all expert operations are systematically decomposed into two principal components: a shared projection into a lower-dimensional latent space, followed by expert-specific transformations with significantly reduced parametric complexity. This factorized approach substantially diminishes parameter count and computational requirements. Beyond the pretraining implementation of the MoLE architecture, we also establish a rigorous mathematical framework for transforming pre-trained MoE models into the MoLE architecture, characterizing the sufficient conditions for optimal factorization and developing a systematic two-phase algorithm for this conversion process. Our comprehensive theoretical analysis demonstrates that MoLE significantly enhances computational efficiency across multiple dimensions while preserving model representational capacity. Empirical evaluations corroborate our theoretical findings, confirming that MoLE achieves performance comparable to standard MoE implementations while substantially reducing resource requirements.

Modern fine-grained Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models route each token to a small number of experts and renormalize their router probabilities. We show that this renormalization implicitly calibrates expert output gain to the training top-k: reducing k at inference changes not only which experts are used but also the strength of the expert branch. We separate these effects by activating the top k_1 experts while normalizing by the probability mass of the top k_2 experts, introducing one integer with no parameters, training, or measurable compute overhead. On Qwen3.6-35B-A3B, reducing from 8 to 4 experts causes a 4.65-point MMLU drop under standard renormalization but only 0.35 points with k_2=16, while halving routed-expert compute. The result replicates on the 11times larger Qwen3.5-397B-A17B, where reducing from 10 to 5 experts loses only 0.55 points with an appropriate reference set. Removing renormalization entirely is catastrophic, showing that preserving a suitable reference mass is crucial. We further find that perplexity and downstream accuracy favor different k_2, cautioning against selecting MoE compression settings using unlabeled text alone. Analyses also show that expert identity matters substantially more than expert weighting, while balanced and domain-specialized routing leaves limited room for expert pruning.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

Generative modeling has shown increasing promise for predicting cellular perturbation effects under chemical compound treatments. Existing approaches either model perturbation as a distribution-to-distribution mapping without explicit concentration handling, or treat concentration as a discrete class label, precluding continuous dose control. We introduce a joint flow matching approach that simultaneously models cell latents and drug concentration via a dual-timestep formulation, enabling dose-conditioned single-cell morphing through the invertibility of flow matching. The joint formulation induces a monotonic dose-response geometry in latent space and additionally supports concentration estimation from cell morphology. As proof of concept, we further demonstrate generalization to an unseen dose held out during training. Empirically, our method achieves competitive or improved per-concentration metrics on two compounds compared with representative baselines, while enabling capabilities structurally unavailable to discrete-class methods.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

The emergence of Mixture of Experts (MoE) LLMs has significantly advanced the development of language models. Compared to traditional LLMs, MoE LLMs outperform traditional LLMs by achieving higher performance with considerably fewer activated parameters. Despite this efficiency, their enormous parameter size still leads to high deployment costs. In this paper, we introduce a two-stage compression method tailored for MoE to reduce the model size and decrease the computational cost. First, in the inter-expert pruning stage, we analyze the importance of each layer and propose the Layer-wise Genetic Search and Block-wise KT-Reception Field with the non-uniform pruning ratio to prune the individual expert. Second, in the intra-expert decomposition stage, we apply the low-rank decomposition to further compress the parameters within the remaining experts. Extensive experiments on Qwen1.5-MoE-A2.7B, DeepSeek-V2-Lite, and Mixtral-8times7B demonstrate that our proposed methods can both reduce the model size and enhance inference efficiency while maintaining performance in various zero-shot tasks. The code will be available at https://github.com/xiaochengsky/MoEI-2.git

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

Since GPT, most Transformers have repeated the same attention mechanism at every layer. Yet this design is largely a convention rather than a tested conclusion. When multiple sequence mixers are combined in one stack, improvements may arise from mechanism choice, placement, or both, making causal attribution difficult. We introduce Aether-7B-5Attn, a 6.59B-parameter mixture-of-experts model (approx2.98B active) whose 49 layers contain seven sequence-mixing mechanisms arranged as a 7times7 Latin square. Because each mechanism appears exactly once in every row and column, the design guarantees balanced exposure across depth while eliminating placement confounds. To evaluate this principle, we build a parameter-matched proxy with four mechanisms arranged as a 4times4 Latin square over sixteen layers, matched to 700.9M parameters and trained with eight seeds per arm. The results reveal a clear dissociation. Rearranging a distributed heterogeneous stack into a balanced periodic cycle changes validation loss by only 0.16\%, indicating that exact placement has little effect. In contrast, clustering the same mechanisms into contiguous depth bands incurs a 0.59\% penalty, while replacing the heterogeneous stack with a homogeneous one incurs a 1.68\% penalty. These results indicate that performance depends primarily on heterogeneous composition distributed across depth rather than on any particular permutation. We confirm this finding at 2.16times larger scale (1.514B parameters), where the homogeneous-stack penalty increases to 2.63\% and removing the SSM-family mechanism produces a 3.20\% degradation. We further report per-mechanism cost profiles, English and Korean evaluations, and a causal-safety audit of all 49 layers. We release model weights, training recipes, training code, logs, and architecture source code.

Continual learning (CL) has garnered significant attention because of its ability to adapt to new tasks that arrive over time. Catastrophic forgetting (of old tasks) has been identified as a major issue in CL, as the model adapts to new tasks. The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model has recently been shown to effectively mitigate catastrophic forgetting in CL, by employing a gating network to sparsify and distribute diverse tasks among multiple experts. However, there is a lack of theoretical analysis of MoE and its impact on the learning performance in CL. This paper provides the first theoretical results to characterize the impact of MoE in CL via the lens of overparameterized linear regression tasks. We establish the benefit of MoE over a single expert by proving that the MoE model can diversify its experts to specialize in different tasks, while its router learns to select the right expert for each task and balance the loads across all experts. Our study further suggests an intriguing fact that the MoE in CL needs to terminate the update of the gating network after sufficient training rounds to attain system convergence, which is not needed in the existing MoE studies that do not consider the continual task arrival. Furthermore, we provide explicit expressions for the expected forgetting and overall generalization error to characterize the benefit of MoE in the learning performance in CL. Interestingly, adding more experts requires additional rounds before convergence, which may not enhance the learning performance. Finally, we conduct experiments on both synthetic and real datasets to extend these insights from linear models to deep neural networks (DNNs), which also shed light on the practical algorithm design for MoE in CL.

Intermittent Androgen Suppression (IAS) is a treatment strategy for delaying or even preventing time to relapse of advanced prostate cancer. IAS consists of alternating cycles of therapy (in the form of androgen suppression) and off-treatment periods. The level of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in a patient's serum is frequently monitored to determine when the patient will be taken off therapy and when therapy will resume. In spite of extensive recent clinical experience with IAS, the design of an ideal protocol for any given patient remains one of the main challenges associated with effectively implementing this therapy. We use a threshold-based policy for optimal IAS therapy design that is parameterized by lower and upper PSA threshold values and is associated with a cost metric that combines clinically relevant measures of therapy success. We apply Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA) to a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) model of prostate cancer evolution under IAS and derive unbiased estimators of the cost metric gradient with respect to various model and therapy parameters. These estimators are subsequently used for system analysis. By evaluating sensitivity estimates with respect to several model parameters, we identify critical parameters and demonstrate that relaxing the optimality condition in favor of increased robustness to modeling errors provides an alternative objective to therapy design for at least some patients.

We introduce MixtureKit, a modular open-source framework for constructing, training, and analyzing Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models from arbitrary pre-trained or fine-tuned models. MixtureKit currently supports three complementary methods: (i) Traditional MoE, which uses a single router per transformer block to select experts, (ii) BTX (Branch-Train-Mix), which introduces separate routers for each specified sub-layer enabling fine-grained token routing, and (iii) BTS (Branch-Train-Stitch), which keeps experts fully intact and introduces trainable stitch layers for controlled information exchange between hub and experts. MixtureKit automatically modifies the model configuration, patches decoder and causal LM classes, and saves a unified checkpoint ready for inference or fine-tuning. We further provide a visualization interface to inspect per-token routing decisions, expert weight distributions, and layer-wise contributions. Experiments with multilingual code-switched data (e.g. Arabic-Latin) show that a BTX-based model trained using MixtureKit can outperform baseline dense models on multiple benchmarks. We release MixtureKit as a practical foundation for research and development of MoE-based systems across diverse domains.

We consider the classic supervised learning problem, where a continuous non-negative random label Y (i.e. a random duration) is to be predicted based upon observing a random vector X valued in R^d with dgeq 1 by means of a regression rule with minimum least square error. In various applications, ranging from industrial quality control to public health through credit risk analysis for instance, training observations can be right censored, meaning that, rather than on independent copies of (X,Y), statistical learning relies on a collection of ngeq 1 independent realizations of the triplet (X, ; min{Y,; C},; δ), where C is a nonnegative r.v. with unknown distribution, modeling censorship and δ=I{Yleq C} indicates whether the duration is right censored or not. As ignoring censorship in the risk computation may clearly lead to a severe underestimation of the target duration and jeopardize prediction, we propose to consider a plug-in estimate of the true risk based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator of the conditional survival function of the censorship C given X, referred to as Kaplan-Meier risk, in order to perform empirical risk minimization. It is established, under mild conditions, that the learning rate of minimizers of this biased/weighted empirical risk functional is of order O_{P}(log(n)/n) when ignoring model bias issues inherent to plug-in estimation, as can be attained in absence of censorship. Beyond theoretical results, numerical experiments are presented in order to illustrate the relevance of the approach developed.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has emerged as a promising paradigm for foundation models due to its efficient and powerful scalability. In this work, we present Sigma-MoE-Tiny, an MoE language model that achieves the highest sparsity compared to existing open-source models. Sigma-MoE-Tiny employs fine-grained expert segmentation with up to 96 experts per layer, while activating only one expert for each token, resulting in 20B total parameters with just 0.5B activated. The major challenge introduced by such extreme sparsity lies in expert load balancing. We find that the widely-used load balancing loss tends to become ineffective in the lower layers under this setting. To address this issue, we propose a progressive sparsification schedule aiming to balance expert utilization and training stability. Sigma-MoE-Tiny is pre-trained on a diverse and high-quality corpus, followed by post-training to further unlock its capabilities. The entire training process remains remarkably stable, with no occurrence of irrecoverable loss spikes. Comprehensive evaluations reveal that, despite activating only 0.5B parameters, Sigma-MoE-Tiny achieves top-tier performance among counterparts of comparable or significantly larger scale. In addition, we provide an in-depth discussion of load balancing in highly sparse MoE models, offering insights for advancing sparsity in future MoE architectures. Project page: https://qghuxmu.github.io/Sigma-MoE-Tiny Code: https://github.com/microsoft/ltp-megatron-lm

Mixture-of-experts (MoEs) have been adopted for reducing inference costs by sparsely activating experts in Large language models (LLMs). Despite this reduction, the massive number of experts in MoEs still makes them expensive to serve. In this paper, we study how to address this, by pruning MoEs. Among pruning methodologies, unstructured pruning has been known to achieve the highest performance for a given pruning ratio, compared to structured pruning, since the latter imposes constraints on the sparsification structure. This is intuitive, as the solution space of unstructured pruning subsumes that of structured pruning. However, our counterintuitive finding reveals that expert pruning, a form of structured pruning, can actually precede unstructured pruning to outperform unstructured-only pruning. As existing expert pruning, requiring O(k^n{n}) forward passes for n experts, cannot scale for recent MoEs, we propose a scalable alternative with O(1) complexity, yet outperforming the more expensive methods. The key idea is leveraging a latent structure between experts, based on behavior similarity, such that the greedy decision of whether to prune closely captures the joint pruning effect. Ours is highly effective -- for Snowflake Arctic, a 480B-sized MoE with 128 experts, our method needs only one H100 and two hours to achieve nearly no loss in performance with 40% sparsity, even in generative tasks such as GSM8K, where state-of-the-art unstructured pruning fails to. The code will be made publicly available.

Large language models (LLMs) have garnered unprecedented advancements across diverse fields, ranging from natural language processing to computer vision and beyond. The prowess of LLMs is underpinned by their substantial model size, extensive and diverse datasets, and the vast computational power harnessed during training, all of which contribute to the emergent abilities of LLMs (e.g., in-context learning) that are not present in small models. Within this context, the mixture of experts (MoE) has emerged as an effective method for substantially scaling up model capacity with minimal computation overhead, gaining significant attention from academia and industry. Despite its growing prevalence, there lacks a systematic and comprehensive review of the literature on MoE. This survey seeks to bridge that gap, serving as an essential resource for researchers delving into the intricacies of MoE. We first briefly introduce the structure of the MoE layer, followed by proposing a new taxonomy of MoE. Next, we overview the core designs for various MoE models including both algorithmic and systemic aspects, alongside collections of available open-source implementations, hyperparameter configurations and empirical evaluations. Furthermore, we delineate the multifaceted applications of MoE in practice, and outline some potential directions for future research. To facilitate ongoing updates and the sharing of cutting-edge developments in MoE research, we have established a resource repository accessible at https://github.com/withinmiaov/A-Survey-on-Mixture-of-Experts.

We solve a longstanding problem in Bernoulli percolation: we derive sharp Ornstein--Zernike asymptotics for the probability that two distant points are connected by a finite cluster in the whole supercritical regime. Our proof has two main ingredients. First, the renewal structure from Fridbergh and Hammond (2024) yields an a priori bound on cluster volume. Second, we adapt the coarse-graining and irreducible-cluster framework of Companion, Ioffe, Velenik (2008) to finite supercritical connections. The main distinction from the subcritical analysis is that our argument does not require a separation of masses between irreducible and unrestricted finite connections. The volume bound and a modified coarse-graining construction instead provide stretched-exponential tails for the effective random-walk increments, which suffice to obtain the sharp asymptotics.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs), also known as non-normalized probabilistic models, specify probability density or mass functions up to an unknown normalizing constant. Unlike most other probabilistic models, EBMs do not place a restriction on the tractability of the normalizing constant, thus are more flexible to parameterize and can model a more expressive family of probability distributions. However, the unknown normalizing constant of EBMs makes training particularly difficult. Our goal is to provide a friendly introduction to modern approaches for EBM training. We start by explaining maximum likelihood training with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and proceed to elaborate on MCMC-free approaches, including Score Matching (SM) and Noise Constrastive Estimation (NCE). We highlight theoretical connections among these three approaches, and end with a brief survey on alternative training methods, which are still under active research. Our tutorial is targeted at an audience with basic understanding of generative models who want to apply EBMs or start a research project in this direction.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Sparsely-activated Mixture-of-experts (MoE) models allow the number of parameters to greatly increase while keeping the amount of computation for a given token or a given sample unchanged. However, a poor expert routing strategy (e.g. one resulting in load imbalance) can cause certain experts to be under-trained, leading to an expert being under or over-specialized. Prior work allocates a fixed number of experts to each token using a top-k function regardless of the relative importance of different tokens. To address this, we propose a heterogeneous mixture-of-experts employing an expert choice method. Instead of letting tokens select the top-k experts, we have experts selecting the top-k tokens. As a result, each token can be routed to a variable number of experts and each expert can have a fixed bucket size. We systematically study pre-training speedups using the same computational resources of the Switch Transformer top-1 and GShard top-2 gating of prior work and find that our method improves training convergence time by more than 2x. For the same computational cost, our method demonstrates higher performance in fine-tuning 11 selected tasks in the GLUE and SuperGLUE benchmarks. For a smaller activation cost, our method outperforms the T5 dense model in 7 out of the 11 tasks.

The mixture of Expert (MoE) parallelism is a recent advancement that scales up the model size with constant computational cost. MoE selects different sets of parameters (i.e., experts) for each incoming token, resulting in a sparsely-activated model. Despite several successful applications of MoE, its training efficiency degrades significantly as the number of experts increases. The routing stage in MoE relies on the efficiency of the All2All communication collective, which suffers from network congestion and has poor scalability. To mitigate these issues, we introduce SMILE, which exploits heterogeneous network bandwidth and splits a single-step routing into bi-level routing. Our experimental results show that the proposed method obtains a 2.5x speedup over Switch Transformer in terms of pretraining throughput on the Colossal Clean Crawled Corpus without losing any convergence speed.

Clustering is a widely deployed unsupervised learning tool. Model-based clustering is a flexible framework to tackle data heterogeneity when the clusters have different shapes. Likelihood-based inference for mixture distributions often involves non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions, imposing difficult computational and statistical challenges. The classic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a computationally thrifty iterative method that maximizes a surrogate function minorizing the log-likelihood of observed data in each iteration, which however suffers from bad local maxima even in the special case of the standard Gaussian mixture model with common isotropic covariance matrices. On the other hand, recent studies reveal that the unique global solution of a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxed K-means achieves the information-theoretically sharp threshold for perfectly recovering the cluster labels under the standard Gaussian mixture model. In this paper, we extend the SDP approach to a general setting by integrating cluster labels as model parameters and propose an iterative likelihood adjusted SDP (iLA-SDP) method that directly maximizes the exact observed likelihood in the presence of data heterogeneity. By lifting the cluster assignment to group-specific membership matrices, iLA-SDP avoids centroids estimation -- a key feature that allows exact recovery under well-separateness of centroids without being trapped by their adversarial configurations. Thus iLA-SDP is less sensitive than EM to initialization and more stable on high-dimensional data. Our numeric experiments demonstrate that iLA-SDP can achieve lower mis-clustering errors over several widely used clustering methods including K-means, SDP and EM algorithms.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) models represent a significant advancement in large language model (LLM) development through their efficient parameter utilization. These models achieve substantial performance improvements at reduced inference costs. However, the deployment of SMoE models faces constraints from extensive memory requirements of expert components in resource-limited environments. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Hierarchical Clustering for Sparsely activated Mixture of Experts (HC-SMoE), a task-agnostic expert merging framework for parameter reduction without retraining. HC-SMoE introduces a novel hierarchical clustering approach based on expert outputs to ensure merging robustness independent of routing decisions. The proposed output-based clustering method enables effective capture of functional relationships between experts for large-scale architectures. We provide theoretical analysis and comprehensive evaluations across multiple zero-shot language tasks to demonstrate HC-SMoE's effectiveness in state-of-the-art models including Qwen and Mixtral. The experimental results validate HC-SMoE's superior performance and practical applicability for real-world deployments.

Scaling the size of a model enhances its capabilities but significantly increases computation complexity. Mixture-of-Experts models (MoE) address the issue by allowing model size to scale up without substantially increasing training or inference costs. Despite their promising results, MoE models encounter several challenges. Primarily, for dynamic routing methods, the dispersion of training tokens across multiple experts can lead to underfitting, particularly for infrequent tokens. Additionally, while fixed routing methods can mitigate that issue, they compromise on the diversity of representations. In this paper, we propose MaskMoE, a method designed to enhance token-level learning by employing a routing masking technique within the Mixture-of-Experts model. MaskMoE is capable of maintaining representation diversity while achieving more comprehensive training. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms previous dominant Mixture-of-Experts models in terms of both perplexity (PPL) and downstream task performance.

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) models that employ sparse activation have demonstrated effectiveness in significantly increasing the number of parameters while maintaining low computational requirements per token. However, recent studies have established that MoE models are inherently parameter-inefficient as the improvement in performance diminishes with an increasing number of experts. We hypothesize this parameter inefficiency is a result of all experts having equal capacity, which may not adequately meet the varying complexity requirements of different tokens or tasks. In light of this, we propose Stratified Mixture of Experts (SMoE) models, which feature a stratified structure and can assign dynamic capacity to different tokens. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SMoE on three multilingual machine translation benchmarks, containing 4, 15, and 94 language pairs, respectively. We show that SMoE outperforms multiple state-of-the-art MoE models with the same or fewer parameters.

Sparse expert models are a thirty-year old concept re-emerging as a popular architecture in deep learning. This class of architecture encompasses Mixture-of-Experts, Switch Transformers, Routing Networks, BASE layers, and others, all with the unifying idea that each example is acted on by a subset of the parameters. By doing so, the degree of sparsity decouples the parameter count from the compute per example allowing for extremely large, but efficient models. The resulting models have demonstrated significant improvements across diverse domains such as natural language processing, computer vision, and speech recognition. We review the concept of sparse expert models, provide a basic description of the common algorithms, contextualize the advances in the deep learning era, and conclude by highlighting areas for future work.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Sparse mixture of experts (SMoE) offers an appealing solution to scale up the model complexity beyond the mean of increasing the network's depth or width. However, we argue that effective SMoE training remains challenging because of the suboptimal routing process where experts that perform computation do not directly contribute to the routing process. In this work, we propose competition, a novel mechanism to route tokens to experts with the highest neural response. Theoretically, we show that the competition mechanism enjoys a better sample efficiency than the traditional softmax routing. Furthermore, we develop CompeteSMoE, a simple yet effective algorithm to train large language models by deploying a router to learn the competition policy, thus enjoying strong performances at a low training overhead. Our extensive empirical evaluations on both the visual instruction tuning and language pre-training tasks demonstrate the efficacy, robustness, and scalability of CompeteSMoE compared to state-of-the-art SMoE strategies. We have made the implementation available at: https://github.com/Fsoft-AIC/CompeteSMoE. This work is an improved version of the previous study at arXiv:2402.02526

The mixture of experts (MoE) model is a sparse variant of large language models (LLMs), designed to hold a better balance between intelligent capability and computational overhead. Despite its benefits, MoE is still too expensive to deploy on resource-constrained edge devices, especially with the demands of on-device inference services. Recent research efforts often apply model compression techniques, such as quantization, pruning and merging, to restrict MoE complexity. Unfortunately, due to their predefined static model optimization strategies, they cannot always achieve the desired quality-overhead trade-off when handling multiple requests, finally degrading the on-device quality of service. These limitations motivate us to propose the D^2MoE, an algorithm-system co-design framework that matches diverse task requirements by dynamically allocating the most proper bit-width to each expert. Specifically, inspired by the nested structure of matryoshka dolls, we propose the matryoshka weight quantization (MWQ) to progressively compress expert weights in a bit-nested manner and reduce the required runtime memory. On top of it, we further optimize the I/O-computation pipeline and design a heuristic scheduling algorithm following our hottest-expert-bit-first (HEBF) principle, which maximizes the expert parallelism between I/O and computation queue under constrained memory budgets, thus significantly reducing the idle temporal bubbles waiting for the experts to load. Evaluations on real edge devices show that D^2MoE improves the overall inference throughput by up to 1.39times and reduces the peak memory footprint by up to 53% over the latest on-device inference frameworks, while still preserving comparable serving accuracy as its INT8 counterparts.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) models have emerged as a promising paradigm for scaling language models efficiently by activating only a subset of parameters for each input token. In this report, we present dots.llm1, a large-scale MoE model that activates 14B parameters out of a total of 142B parameters, delivering performance on par with state-of-the-art models while reducing training and inference costs. Leveraging our meticulously crafted and efficient data processing pipeline, dots.llm1 achieves performance comparable to Qwen2.5-72B after pretraining on 11.2T high-quality tokens and post-training to fully unlock its capabilities. Notably, no synthetic data is used during pretraining. To foster further research, we open-source intermediate training checkpoints at every one trillion tokens, providing valuable insights into the learning dynamics of large language models.

We model Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) token routing as a congestion game with a single effective parameter, the congestion coefficient gamma_eff, that quantifies the balance-quality tradeoff. Tracking gamma_eff across training checkpoints of two open-source MoE models, OLMoE-1B-7B (20 checkpoints, with dense sampling in the surge region) and OpenMoE-8B (6 checkpoints), reveals a three-phase trajectory: a surge phase where the router learns to balance load (gamma_eff: 14 to 36-39, peaking in the step 30K-40K region), a stabilization phase where experts specialize under steady balance (B_0: 2.4 to 2.3, steps 100K-400K), and a relaxation phase where the router trades balance for quality as experts differentiate (gamma_eff: 27 to 9, steps 400K-1.2M). This non-monotone trajectory, invisible to post-hoc analysis of converged models, reveals that early MoE training prioritizes balance while late training prioritizes quality. The theoretical framework is honest about its limits: the single-type equilibrium reduces to temperature-scaled softmax (held-out L1: MFG = 0.199 vs. softmax = 0.200). The game is not a better predictor; it reveals what the temperature means and, critically, how that temperature evolves. We complement the dynamics with an effective congestion decomposition, a multi-type extension that improves load prediction via token clustering on all 16 layers (mean: 30%), scope diagnostics (K/M, epsilon_l), and robustness verification across four independent quality estimators (r >= 0.89). All confidence intervals are from bootstrap resampling over 50 independent text batches.

Recently, inspired by the concept of sparsity, Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have gained increasing popularity for scaling model size while keeping the number of activated parameters constant. In this study, we thoroughly investigate the sparsity of the dense LLaMA model by constructing MoE for both the attention (i.e., Attention MoE) and MLP (i.e., MLP MoE) modules in the transformer blocks. Specifically, we investigate different expert construction methods and granularities under the same activation conditions to analyze the impact of sparsifying the model. Additionally, to comprehensively evaluate the model's capabilities across various domains (e.g., conversation, code, math) after sparsification, we apply sparsity to the instructed large language models (LLMs) and construct instructed MoE models. To counteract the performance degradation resulting from increased sparsity, we design a two-stage post-training strategy to enhance model performance. Experiments on the LLaMA3 model demonstrate the potential effectiveness of this approach for future developments of instructed MoE models. The source codes and models are available at: https://github.com/OpenSparseLLMs/LLaMA-MoE-v2.

Albeit worryingly underrated in the recent literature on machine learning in general (and, on deep learning in particular), multivariate density estimation is a fundamental task in many applications, at least implicitly, and still an open issue. With a few exceptions, deep neural networks (DNNs) have seldom been applied to density estimation, mostly due to the unsupervised nature of the estimation task, and (especially) due to the need for constrained training algorithms that ended up realizing proper probabilistic models that satisfy Kolmogorov's axioms. Moreover, in spite of the well-known improvement in terms of modeling capabilities yielded by mixture models over plain single-density statistical estimators, no proper mixtures of multivariate DNN-based component densities have been investigated so far. The paper fills this gap by extending our previous work on Neural Mixture Densities (NMMs) to multivariate DNN mixtures. A maximum-likelihood (ML) algorithm for estimating Deep NMMs (DNMMs) is handed out, which satisfies numerically a combination of hard and soft constraints aimed at ensuring satisfaction of Kolmogorov's axioms. The class of probability density functions that can be modeled to any degree of precision via DNMMs is formally defined. A procedure for the automatic selection of the DNMM architecture, as well as of the hyperparameters for its ML training algorithm, is presented (exploiting the probabilistic nature of the DNMM). Experimental results on univariate and multivariate data are reported on, corroborating the effectiveness of the approach and its superiority to the most popular statistical estimation techniques.

As foundational models reshape scientific discovery, a bottleneck persists in dynamical system reconstruction (DSR): the ability to learn across system hierarchies. Many meta-learning approaches have been applied successfully to single systems, but falter when confronted with sparse, loosely related datasets requiring multiple hierarchies to be learned. Mixture of Experts (MoE) offers a natural paradigm to address these challenges. Despite their potential, we demonstrate that naive MoEs are inadequate for the nuanced demands of hierarchical DSR, largely due to their gradient descent-based gating update mechanism which leads to slow updates and conflicted routing during training. To overcome this limitation, we introduce MixER: Mixture of Expert Reconstructors, a novel sparse top-1 MoE layer employing a custom gating update algorithm based on K-means and least squares. Extensive experiments validate MixER's capabilities, demonstrating efficient training and scalability to systems of up to ten parametric ordinary differential equations. However, our layer underperforms state-of-the-art meta-learners in high-data regimes, particularly when each expert is constrained to process only a fraction of a dataset composed of highly related data points. Further analysis with synthetic and neuroscientific time series suggests that the quality of the contextual representations generated by MixER is closely linked to the presence of hierarchical structure in the data.

It is widely acknowledged that the performance of Transformer models is exponentially related to their number of parameters and computational complexity. While approaches like Mixture of Experts (MoE) decouple parameter count from computational complexity, they still face challenges in inference due to high memory access costs. This work introduces UltraMem, incorporating large-scale, ultra-sparse memory layer to address these limitations. Our approach significantly reduces inference latency while maintaining model performance. We also investigate the scaling laws of this new architecture, demonstrating that it not only exhibits favorable scaling properties but outperforms traditional models. In our experiments, we train networks with up to 20 million memory slots. The results show that our method achieves state-of-the-art inference speed and model performance within a given computational budget.

Empirical scaling laws have driven the evolution of large language models (LLMs), yet their coefficients shift whenever the model architecture or data pipeline changes. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, now standard in state-of-the-art systems, introduce a new sparsity dimension that current dense-model frontiers overlook. We investigate how MoE sparsity influences two distinct capability regimes: memorization and reasoning. We train families of MoE Transformers that systematically vary total parameters, active parameters, and top-k routing while holding the compute budget fixed. For every model we record pre-training loss, downstream task loss, and task accuracy, allowing us to separate the train-test generalization gap from the loss-accuracy gap. Memorization benchmarks improve monotonically with total parameters, mirroring training loss. By contrast, reasoning performance saturates and can even regress despite continued gains in both total parameters and training loss. Altering top-k alone has little effect when active parameters are constant, and classic hyperparameters such as learning rate and initialization modulate the generalization gap in the same direction as sparsity. Neither post-training reinforcement learning (GRPO) nor extra test-time compute rescues the reasoning deficit of overly sparse models. Our model checkpoints, code and logs are open-source at https://github.com/rioyokotalab/optimal-sparsity.

Pre-training data mixtures are commonly tuned by running small-scale experiments and extrapolating to the target training budget. When high-quality data is scarce and must be repeated, this extrapolation frequently fails, but the source of the failure has not been isolated. We show that a primary culprit is a repetition mismatch: because high-quality datasets are small, their repetition rate changes as the training budget grows, shifting the optimal mixture in ways that small-scale proxy experiments do not anticipate. A subsampling procedure that matches the target repetition rate controls for this effect. In a two-source setting combining limited high-quality data with web crawl, a single repetition-controlled experiment using only 1/16 of the target tokens recovers a mixture within 0.05 of the optimum for a 757M parameter model, compared to an error of 0.75 without repetition control. Achieving comparable accuracy without repetition control requires three to four horizons, consuming 44 to 94% of the target token budget. With three data sources, the larger mixture space requires more than a single experiment to constrain, but the approach remains effective: at the 757M scale, just two repetition-controlled horizons recover the optimal mixture, outperforming baselines that instead require the full two-source experiments to construct. Our results reveal that repetition dynamics, not scale alone, shape whether small-scale mixture experiments generalize. More broadly, they suggest that data repetition deserves treatment as a first-class variable in mixture optimization, rather than an inconvenient side effect of limited data.

The pretraining data mixture of Large Language Models (LLMs) constitutes their "digital DNA", shaping model behaviors, capabilities, and failure modes. Yet this composition is rarely disclosed, making post-hoc auditing of data combination or provenance difficult. In this work, we formalize Data Mixture Surgery (DMS): given only generated text from a target LLM, estimate the domain-level distribution of its pretraining corpus under a predefined taxonomy. We propose LLMSurgeon, a strong framework that casts DMS as an inverse problem under the label-shift assumption. Rather than directly aggregating classifier outputs, LLMSurgeon estimates a calibrated soft confusion matrix and solves a constrained inverse problem to correct systematic domain confusion and recover the latent mixture prior. To evaluate, we introduce LLMScan, a recipe-verifiable evaluation suite built from open-source LLMs with transparent pretraining mixtures. Across LLMScan, LLMSurgeon recovers domain mixtures with high fidelity under fixed protocols. Our work presents a practical, post-hoc approach for auditing the digital DNA of foundation models without access to their training data.

A treatment may affect some individuals while leaving others unaffected. We study the reach of treatment effects by asking how large an unaffected covariate region could be. We develop efficient local randomization tests over nearest-neighbour regions to construct a finite-sample valid upper confidence bound for the size of the largest zero-effect region. A small bound provides evidence that treatment effects extend broadly across covariate values by ruling out large zero-effect regions. Under a general outcome model, we characterize how the size of the bound depends on the number of affected units, the size of their treatment effects, and the geometry of the true zero-effect set. We show that, when region size is measured as a sample fraction, the excess of the upper confidence bound over the true size decreases to zero at a minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor. Numerical simulations assess the coverage, power and computational efficiency of our method. Applications to voter-turnout, HIV clinical-trial, and AI-assisted writing data illustrate how our method rules out large zero-effect regions across the covariates of interest.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have emerged as a promising paradigm for scaling large language models (LLMs) with sparse activation of task-specific experts. Despite their computational efficiency during inference, the massive overall parameter footprint of MoE models (e.g., GPT-4) introduces critical challenges for practical deployment. Current pruning approaches often fail to address two inherent characteristics of MoE systems: 1).intra-layer expert homogeneity where experts within the same MoE layer exhibit functional redundancy, and 2). inter-layer similarity patterns where deeper layers tend to contain progressively more homogeneous experts. To tackle these issues, we propose Cluster-driven Expert Pruning (C-Prune), a novel two-stage framework for adaptive task-specific compression of MoE LLMs. C-Prune operates through layer-wise expert clustering, which groups functionally similar experts within each MoE layer using parameter similarity metrics, followed by global cluster pruning, which eliminates redundant clusters across all layers through a unified importance scoring mechanism that accounts for cross-layer homogeneity. We validate C-Prune through extensive experiments on multiple MoE models and benchmarks. The results demonstrate that C-Prune effectively reduces model size while outperforming existing MoE pruning methods.

We propose a neural-network based survival model (SurvSurf) specifically designed for direct and simultaneous probabilistic prediction of the first hitting time of sequential events from baseline. Unlike existing models, SurvSurf is theoretically guaranteed to never violate the monotonic relationship between the cumulative incidence functions of sequential events, while allowing nonlinear influence from predictors. It also incorporates implicit truths for unobserved intermediate events in model fitting, and supports both discrete and continuous time and events. We also identified a variant of the Integrated Brier Score (IBS) that showed robust correlation with the mean squared error (MSE) between the true and predicted probabilities by accounting for implied truths about the missing intermediate events. We demonstrated the superiority of SurvSurf compared to modern and traditional predictive survival models in two simulated datasets and two real-world datasets, using MSE, the more robust IBS and by measuring the extent of monotonicity violation.

This paper formalizes threshold-based selection as an evaluation-gating architecture in which each incumbent is tested before variation and a replacement is generated and evaluated only when contextual pressure exceeds intrinsic strength. The mechanism is instantiated as Leaf Abscission Optimization (LAO), using rank-based strength, a phenological seasonal signal, diversity modulation, environmental pressure, and a base regrowth kernel. A blocked two-to-the-fourth-power factorial analysis at dimension 10 on the CEC 2017 suite reduces the original multi-layer design to a parsimonious core: drift is harmful, while the other three auxiliary layers show no robust independent evidence of benefit. The resulting LAO-Core attains the third-best mean Friedman rank among nine optimizers at dimensions 10, 30, and 50 under the equal evaluation budget. A four-budget sweep shows budget-dependent relative performance, with adaptive differential-evolution baselines gaining relative advantage at larger budgets; the nine-cell dimension-budget analysis establishes neither an evaluation-budget-per-dimension-only law nor a statistically significant dimension-budget interaction. A paired intervention shows that diversity modulation changes late-run replacement behaviour without a detectable effect on final error at the tested budget. The evidence supports LAO as a parsimonious evaluation-gating mechanism with regime-qualified competitiveness, rather than as a generally superior optimizer.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models scale by activating only a small subset of experts per token. However, training such models remains challenging because top-k routing is discrete and non-differentiable, requiring gradient estimators for expert selection whose design remains a central open problem. We introduce ProbMoE, a probabilistic routing framework that models expert selection as a distribution over cardinality-constrained expert subsets and formulates routing as probabilistic inference in this discrete subset space. We first propose ProbMoE Exact-k routing, which samples k-expert subsets in the forward pass, and the backward pass uses gradients through each expert's exact marginal probability as a tractable surrogate for the true gradient. ProbMoE naturally generalizes to a dynamic-k routing setting, where both training and inference constrain the routing cardinality to the same predefined range, allowing adaptive expert allocation per token. Across benchmarks and model backbones, ProbMoE Exact-k achieves strong performance compared to competitive baselines, with improved expert utilization and routing diversity; ProbMoE Dynamic-k achieves comparable performance with fewer activated experts.

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, intersection-over-union control in instance segmentation, and the simultaneous control of the type-1 error of outlier detection and confidence set coverage in classification or regression. Our main insight is to reframe the risk-control problem as multiple hypothesis testing, enabling techniques and mathematical arguments different from those in the previous literature. We use the framework to provide new calibration methods for several core machine learning tasks, with detailed worked examples in computer vision and tabular medical data.

Adversarial robustness is a key desirable property of neural networks. It has been empirically shown to be affected by their sizes, with larger networks being typically more robust. Recently, Bubeck and Sellke proved a lower bound on the Lipschitz constant of functions that fit the training data in terms of their number of parameters. This raises an interesting open question, do -- and can -- functions with more parameters, but not necessarily more computational cost, have better robustness? We study this question for sparse Mixture of Expert models (MoEs), that make it possible to scale up the model size for a roughly constant computational cost. We theoretically show that under certain conditions on the routing and the structure of the data, MoEs can have significantly smaller Lipschitz constants than their dense counterparts. The robustness of MoEs can suffer when the highest weighted experts for an input implement sufficiently different functions. We next empirically evaluate the robustness of MoEs on ImageNet using adversarial attacks and show they are indeed more robust than dense models with the same computational cost. We make key observations showing the robustness of MoEs to the choice of experts, highlighting the redundancy of experts in models trained in practice.

Class-incremental learning is becoming more popular as it helps models widen their applicability while not forgetting what they already know. A trend in this area is to use a mixture-of-expert technique, where different models work together to solve the task. However, the experts are usually trained all at once using whole task data, which makes them all prone to forgetting and increasing computational burden. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel approach named SEED. SEED selects only one, the most optimal expert for a considered task, and uses data from this task to fine-tune only this expert. For this purpose, each expert represents each class with a Gaussian distribution, and the optimal expert is selected based on the similarity of those distributions. Consequently, SEED increases diversity and heterogeneity within the experts while maintaining the high stability of this ensemble method. The extensive experiments demonstrate that SEED achieves state-of-the-art performance in exemplar-free settings across various scenarios, showing the potential of expert diversification through data in continual learning.

The Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture reduces the training and inference cost significantly compared to a dense model of equivalent capacity. Upcycling is an approach that initializes and trains an MoE model using a pre-trained dense model. While upcycling leads to initial performance gains, the training progresses slower than when trained from scratch, leading to suboptimal performance in the long term. We propose Drop-Upcycling - a method that effectively addresses this problem. Drop-Upcycling combines two seemingly contradictory approaches: utilizing the knowledge of pre-trained dense models while statistically re-initializing some parts of the weights. This approach strategically promotes expert specialization, significantly enhancing the MoE model's efficiency in knowledge acquisition. Extensive large-scale experiments demonstrate that Drop-Upcycling significantly outperforms previous MoE construction methods in the long term, specifically when training on hundreds of billions of tokens or more. As a result, our MoE model with 5.9B active parameters achieves comparable performance to a 13B dense model in the same model family, while requiring approximately 1/4 of the training FLOPs. All experimental resources, including source code, training data, model checkpoints and logs, are publicly available to promote reproducibility and future research on MoE.

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

Building upon our previous investigations of O1 replication (Part 1: Journey Learning [Qin et al., 2024] and Part 2: Distillation [Huang et al., 2024]), this work explores the potential of inference-time scaling in large language models (LLMs) for medical reasoning tasks, ranging from diagnostic decision-making to treatment planning. Through extensive experiments on medical benchmarks of varying complexity (MedQA, Medbullets, and JAMA Clinical Challenges), our investigation reveals several key insights: (1) Increasing inference time does lead to improved performance. With a modest training set of 500 samples, our model yields substantial performance improvements of 6%-11%. (2) Task complexity directly correlates with the required length of reasoning chains, confirming the necessity of extended thought processes for challenging problems. (3) The differential diagnoses generated by our model adhere to the principles of the hypothetico-deductive method, producing a list of potential conditions that may explain a patient's symptoms and systematically narrowing these possibilities by evaluating the evidence. These findings demonstrate the promising synergy between inference-time scaling and journey learning in advancing LLMs' real-world clinical reasoning capabilities.

The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layer, a sparsely-activated model controlled by a router, has achieved great success in deep learning. However, the understanding of such architecture remains elusive. In this paper, we formally study how the MoE layer improves the performance of neural network learning and why the mixture model will not collapse into a single model. Our empirical results suggest that the cluster structure of the underlying problem and the non-linearity of the expert are pivotal to the success of MoE. To further understand this, we consider a challenging classification problem with intrinsic cluster structures, which is hard to learn using a single expert. Yet with the MoE layer, by choosing the experts as two-layer nonlinear convolutional neural networks (CNNs), we show that the problem can be learned successfully. Furthermore, our theory shows that the router can learn the cluster-center features, which helps divide the input complex problem into simpler linear classification sub-problems that individual experts can conquer. To our knowledge, this is the first result towards formally understanding the mechanism of the MoE layer for deep learning.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

In this article, we consider identification, estimation, and inference procedures for treatment effect parameters using Difference-in-Differences (DiD) with (i) multiple time periods, (ii) variation in treatment timing, and (iii) when the "parallel trends assumption" holds potentially only after conditioning on observed covariates. We show that a family of causal effect parameters are identified in staggered DiD setups, even if differences in observed characteristics create non-parallel outcome dynamics between groups. Our identification results allow one to use outcome regression, inverse probability weighting, or doubly-robust estimands. We also propose different aggregation schemes that can be used to highlight treatment effect heterogeneity across different dimensions as well as to summarize the overall effect of participating in the treatment. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and prove the validity of a computationally convenient bootstrap procedure to conduct asymptotically valid simultaneous (instead of pointwise) inference. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of our proposed tools by analyzing the effect of the minimum wage on teen employment from 2001--2007. Open-source software is available for implementing the proposed methods.

Recursive synthetic-data training can degrade a fitted model, but its effects on the variable-screening stage that precedes model fitting are less understood. When each generation labels data for the next, a marginal screener ranks variables against the current pseudo-label target rather than the original response. Across generations, this target drift can erode or reverse the active--inactive score margin and cause screening to discard variables that clean-label screening would retain. We call this process screening collapse. In a Gaussian linear model with minimum-norm recursive generators, we establish finite-sample screening bounds, characterize a late-generation information-loss limit, and derive a minimax impossibility result. Screening collapse can precede and compound ordinary model collapse: omitted variables incur a covariance-weighted loss that no refit restricted to the selected variables can eliminate, while recursive labels further degrade estimation on the retained variables. We also examine two approaches to mitigating screening collapse. Fixed-fraction real-label retention preserves a clean-label component but leaves resolution fixed, whereas data accumulation can avoid screening collapse if the pooled target preserves a positive margin and the growing sample resolves it. Numerical experiments on gene-expression data support the theoretical findings.

We establish a fundamental connection between optimal structure learning and optimal conditional independence testing by showing that the minimax optimal rate for structure learning problems is determined by the minimax rate for conditional independence testing in these problems. This is accomplished by establishing a general reduction between these two problems in the case of poly-forests, and demonstrated by deriving optimal rates for several examples, including Bernoulli, Gaussian and nonparametric models. Furthermore, we show that the optimal algorithm in these settings is a suitable modification of the PC algorithm. This theoretical finding provides a unified framework for analyzing the statistical complexity of structure learning through the lens of minimax testing.