Daily Papers

Machine learning demand forecasts optimize statistical accuracy yet leave excess operational volatility that inflates safety stock and amplifies the Bullwhip effect. We introduce Contextual Deconvolution (CD), a two-stage estimator that reframes demand sensing as a convex decomposition: a kernel-modulated banded operator separates transient promotion-driven shocks from a smooth structural baseline, and hierarchical partial pooling enables catalog-scale deployment without per-SKU training. The operator is data-derived, not imposed---it reduces to the identity wherever the promotional response is impulsive (most of M5, all of Favorita) and contributes only where genuine multi-day carryover exists, so the gains rest on the structural decomposition itself. Evaluating strictly out-of-sample on 30,490 M5 SKUs and 2,845 Favorita items, with calendar-aware baselines given CD's identical future calendar, we anchor the contribution on a full inventory-cost accounting: CD lowers safety stock, holding cost, and order variance but under-provisions event spikes, reducing total cost only when holding costs exceed sim20\% of stockout costs (95\% CI [17%,25%]); otherwise it is an operational-stability and inventory-capital layer, not an expected-cost minimizer. Its accuracy contribution is reliability rather than central tendency: across eleven baselines, CD attains the lowest cross-sectional dispersion of per-SKU error and mis-forecasts by more than 200\% on 0.8\% of SKUs versus 9.9--20.6\% for every baseline, ranking first on both in all four M5 draws. Because the Variance Ratio and std-based safety stock are minimized by any sufficiently smooth forecast, we treat them as diagnostics, not objectives. A supporting analysis shows the learned demand operators are non-normal, yet CD's compact parametric kernel matches their operational performance interpretably.

Reliable machine learning and statistical analysis rely on diverse, well-distributed training data. However, real-world datasets are often limited in size and exhibit underrepresentation across key subpopulations, leading to biased predictions and reduced performance, particularly in supervised tasks such as classification. To address these challenges, we propose Conditional Data Synthesis Augmentation (CoDSA), a novel framework that leverages generative models, such as diffusion models, to synthesize high-fidelity data for improving model performance across multimodal domains including tabular, textual, and image data. CoDSA generates synthetic samples that faithfully capture the conditional distributions of the original data, with a focus on under-sampled or high-interest regions. Through transfer learning, CoDSA fine-tunes pre-trained generative models to enhance the realism of synthetic data and increase sample density in sparse areas. This process preserves inter-modal relationships, mitigates data imbalance, improves domain adaptation, and boosts generalization. We also introduce a theoretical framework that quantifies the statistical accuracy improvements enabled by CoDSA as a function of synthetic sample volume and targeted region allocation, providing formal guarantees of its effectiveness. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CoDSA consistently outperforms non-adaptive augmentation strategies and state-of-the-art baselines in both supervised and unsupervised settings.

High-quality power flow datasets are essential for training machine learning models in power systems. However, security and privacy concerns restrict access to real-world data, making statistically accurate and physically consistent synthetic datasets a viable alternative. We develop a diffusion model for generating synthetic power flow datasets from real-world power grids that both replicate the statistical properties of the real-world data and ensure AC power flow feasibility. To enforce the constraints, we incorporate gradient guidance based on the power flow constraints to steer diffusion sampling toward feasible samples. For computational efficiency, we further leverage insights from the fast decoupled power flow method and propose a variable decoupling strategy for the training and sampling of the diffusion model. These solutions lead to a physics-informed diffusion model, generating power flow datasets that outperform those from the standard diffusion in terms of feasibility and statistical similarity, as shown in experiments across IEEE benchmark systems.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown high agreement with human raters across a variety of tasks, demonstrating potential to ease the challenges of human data collection. In computational social science (CSS), researchers are increasingly leveraging LLM annotations to complement slow and expensive human annotations. Still, guidelines for collecting and using LLM annotations, without compromising the validity of downstream conclusions, remain limited. We introduce Confidence-Driven Inference: a method that combines LLM annotations and LLM confidence indicators to strategically select which human annotations should be collected, with the goal of producing accurate statistical estimates and provably valid confidence intervals while reducing the number of human annotations needed. Our approach comes with safeguards against LLM annotations of poor quality, guaranteeing that the conclusions will be both valid and no less accurate than if we only relied on human annotations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Confidence-Driven Inference over baselines in statistical estimation tasks across three CSS settings--text politeness, stance, and bias--reducing the needed number of human annotations by over 25% in each. Although we use CSS settings for demonstration, Confidence-Driven Inference can be used to estimate most standard quantities across a broad range of NLP problems.

Sampling equilibrium molecular configurations from the Boltzmann distribution is a longstanding challenge. Boltzmann Generators (BGs) address this by combining exact-likelihood generative models with importance sampling, but practical scalability is limited. Meanwhile, coarse-grained surrogates enable the modeling of larger systems by reducing effective dimensionality, yet often lack a reweighting procedure required to ensure asymptotically correct statistics. In this work, we propose Coarse-Grained Boltzmann Generators (CG-BGs), a framework for reduced-order generative modeling with importance sampling in coarse-grained coordinate space. CG-BGs generate samples using a flow-based model and reweight them using a learned potential of mean force (PMF). We show that the PMF can be learned from rapidly converged trajectories via enhanced sampling force matching. Experiments demonstrate that CG-BGs capture solvent-mediated interactions in highly reduced representations while substantially reducing computational cost relative to atomistic BGs, providing a practical route toward equilibrium sampling of larger molecular systems.

Diffusion models have been successful on a range of conditional generation tasks including molecular design and text-to-image generation. However, these achievements have primarily depended on task-specific conditional training or error-prone heuristic approximations. Ideally, a conditional generation method should provide exact samples for a broad range of conditional distributions without requiring task-specific training. To this end, we introduce the Twisted Diffusion Sampler, or TDS. TDS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that targets the conditional distributions of diffusion models through simulating a set of weighted particles. The main idea is to use twisting, an SMC technique that enjoys good computational efficiency, to incorporate heuristic approximations without compromising asymptotic exactness. We first find in simulation and in conditional image generation tasks that TDS provides a computational statistical trade-off, yielding more accurate approximations with many particles but with empirical improvements over heuristics with as few as two particles. We then turn to motif-scaffolding, a core task in protein design, using a TDS extension to Riemannian diffusion models. On benchmark test cases, TDS allows flexible conditioning criteria and often outperforms the state of the art.

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

The predictive analysis of match outcomes and player momentum in professional tennis has long been a subject of scholarly debate. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to game prediction by combining a multi-level fuzzy evaluation model with a CV-GRNN model. We first identify critical statistical indicators via Principal Component Analysis and then develop a two-tier fuzzy model based on the Wimbledon data. In addition, the results of Pearson Correlation Coefficient indicate that the momentum indicators, such as Player Win Streak and Score Difference, have a strong correlation among them, revealing insightful trends among players transitioning between losing and winning streaks. Subsequently, we refine the CV-GRNN model by incorporating 15 statistically significant indicators, resulting in an increase in accuracy to 86.64% and a decrease in MSE by 49.21%. This consequently strengthens the methodological framework for predicting tennis match outcomes, emphasizing its practical utility and potential for adaptation in various athletic contexts.

Early time classification algorithms aim to label a stream of features without processing the full input stream, while maintaining accuracy comparable to that achieved by applying the classifier to the entire input. In this paper, we introduce a statistical framework that can be applied to any sequential classifier, formulating a calibrated stopping rule. This data-driven rule attains finite-sample, distribution-free control of the accuracy gap between full and early-time classification. We start by presenting a novel method that builds on the Learn-then-Test calibration framework to control this gap marginally, on average over i.i.d. instances. As this algorithm tends to yield an excessively high accuracy gap for early halt times, our main contribution is the proposal of a framework that controls a stronger notion of error, where the accuracy gap is controlled conditionally on the accumulated halt times. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability, and usefulness of our method. We show that our proposed early stopping mechanism reduces up to 94% of timesteps used for classification while achieving rigorous accuracy gap control.

Cells that collide with each other repolarize away from contact, in a process called contact inhibition of locomotion (CIL), which is necessary for correct development of the embryo. CIL can occur even when cells make a micron-scale contact with a neighbor - much smaller than their size. How precisely can a cell sense cell-cell contact and repolarize in the correct direction? What factors control whether a cell recognizes it has contacted a neighbor? We propose a theoretical model for the limits of CIL where cells recognize the presence of another cell by binding the protein ephrin with the Eph receptor. This recognition is made difficult by the presence of interfering ligands that bind nonspecifically. Both theoretical predictions and simulation results show that it becomes more difficult to sense cell-cell contact when it is difficult to distinguish ephrin from the interfering ligands, or when there are more interfering ligands, or when the contact width decreases. However, the error of estimating contact position remains almost constant when the contact width changes. This happens because the cell gains spatial information largely from the boundaries of cell-cell contact. We study using statistical decision theory the likelihood of a false positive CIL event in the absence of cell-cell contact, and the likelihood of a false negative where CIL does not occur when another cell is present. Our results suggest that the cell is more likely to make incorrect decisions when the contact width is very small or so large that it nears the cell's perimeter. However, in general, we find that cells have the ability to make reasonably reliable CIL decisions even for very narrow (micron-scale) contacts, even if the concentration of interfering ligands is ten times that of the correct ligands.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

As Large Language Model (LLM) capabilities advance, locally deployed personal agents relying on API-based remote models and external skills have emerged as a novel paradigm. With the rapid expansion of available skills, enabling personal agents to learn and adapt to implicit user preferences becomes a critical challenge. However, local deployment constraints preclude complex centralized selection algorithms, creating an urgent need for a lightweight local preference harness. This paper explores the implementation of such a harness through a novel architecture that strictly decouples statistical preference learning from semantic intent parsing. Specifically, we leverage localized statistical results to influence and modulate the selection decisions of the remote LLM. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our decoupled approach achieves the lowest cumulative regret and highest test accuracy, significantly outperforming traditional memory-augmented agents.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

In the domain of semantic parsing, significant progress has been achieved in Text-to-SQL and question-answering tasks, both of which focus on extracting information from data sources in their native formats. However, the inherent constraints of their formal meaning representations, such as SQL programming language or basic logical forms, hinder their ability to analyze data from various perspectives, such as conducting statistical analyses. To address this limitation and inspire research in this field, we design SIGMA, a new dataset for Text-to-Code semantic parsing with statistical analysis. SIGMA comprises 6000 questions with corresponding Python code labels, spanning across 160 databases. Half of the questions involve query types, which return information in its original format, while the remaining 50% are statistical analysis questions, which perform statistical operations on the data. The Python code labels in our dataset cover 4 types of query types and 40 types of statistical analysis patterns. We evaluated the SIGMA dataset using three different baseline models: LGESQL, SmBoP, and SLSQL. The experimental results show that the LGESQL model with ELECTRA outperforms all other models, achieving 83.37% structure accuracy. In terms of execution accuracy, the SmBoP model, when combined with GraPPa and T5, reaches 76.38%.

With growing capabilities of large language models, prompting them has become the dominant way to access them. This has motivated the development of strategies for automatically selecting effective language prompts. In this paper, we introduce prompt flatness, a new metric to quantify the expected utility of a language prompt. This metric is inspired by flatness regularization in statistical learning that quantifies the robustness of the model towards its parameter perturbations. We provide theoretical foundations for this metric and its relationship with other prompt selection metrics, providing a comprehensive understanding of existing methods. Empirically, we show that combining prompt flatness with existing metrics improves both performance and sample efficiency. Our metric outperforms the previous prompt selection metrics with an average increase of 5% in accuracy and 10% in Pearson correlation across 6 classification benchmarks.

Federated learning has allowed the training of statistical models over remote devices without the transfer of raw client data. In practice, training in heterogeneous and large networks introduce novel challenges in various aspects like network load, quality of client data, security and privacy. Recent works in FL have worked on improving communication efficiency and addressing uneven client data distribution independently, but none have provided a unified solution for both challenges. We introduce a new family of Federated Learning algorithms called CatFedAvg which not only improves the communication efficiency but improves the quality of learning using a category coverage maximization strategy. We use the FedAvg framework and introduce a simple and efficient step every epoch to collect meta-data about the client's training data structure which the central server uses to request a subset of weight updates. We explore two distinct variations which allow us to further explore the tradeoffs between communication efficiency and model accuracy. Our experiments based on a vision classification task have shown that an increase of 10% absolute points in accuracy using the MNIST dataset with 70% absolute points lower network transfer over FedAvg. We also run similar experiments with Fashion MNIST, KMNIST-10, KMNIST-49 and EMNIST-47. Further, under extreme data imbalance experiments for both globally and individual clients, we see the model performing better than FedAvg. The ablation study further explores its behaviour under varying data and client parameter conditions showcasing the robustness of the proposed approach.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly computationally complex, developing efficient deployment strategies, such as quantization, becomes crucial. State-of-the-art Post-training Quantization (PTQ) techniques often rely on calibration processes to maintain the accuracy of these models. However, while these calibration techniques can enhance performance in certain domains, they may not be as effective in others. This paper aims to draw attention to robust statistical approaches that can mitigate such issues. We propose a weight-adaptive PTQ method that can be considered a precursor to calibration-based PTQ methods, guiding the quantization process to preserve the distribution of weights by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the quantized weights and the originally trained weights. This minimization ensures that the quantized model retains the Shannon information content of the original model to a great extent, guaranteeing robust and efficient deployment across many tasks. As such, our proposed approach can perform on par with most common calibration-based PTQ methods, establishing a new pre-calibration step for further adjusting the quantized weights with calibration. We show that our pre-calibration results achieve the same accuracy as some existing calibration-based PTQ methods on various LLMs.

The statistical analysis of large scale legal corpus can provide valuable legal insights. For such analysis one needs to (1) select a subset of the corpus using document retrieval tools, (2) structuralize text using information extraction (IE) systems, and (3) visualize the data for the statistical analysis. Each process demands either specialized tools or programming skills whereas no comprehensive unified "no-code" tools have been available. Especially for IE, if the target information is not predefined in the ontology of the IE system, one needs to build their own system. Here we provide NESTLE, a no code tool for large-scale statistical analysis of legal corpus. With NESTLE, users can search target documents, extract information, and visualize the structured data all via the chat interface with accompanying auxiliary GUI for the fine-level control. NESTLE consists of three main components: a search engine, an end-to-end IE system, and a Large Language Model (LLM) that glues the whole components together and provides the chat interface. Powered by LLM and the end-to-end IE system, NESTLE can extract any type of information that has not been predefined in the IE system opening up the possibility of unlimited customizable statistical analysis of the corpus without writing a single line of code. The use of the custom end-to-end IE system also enables faster and low-cost IE on large scale corpus. We validate our system on 15 Korean precedent IE tasks and 3 legal text classification tasks from LEXGLUE. The comprehensive experiments reveal NESTLE can achieve GPT-4 comparable performance by training the internal IE module with 4 human-labeled, and 192 LLM-labeled examples. The detailed analysis provides the insight on the trade-off between accuracy, time, and cost in building such system.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) enhances factual grounding in large language models (LLMs) by incorporating retrieved evidence, but LLM accuracy declines when long or noisy contexts exceed the model's effective attention span. Existing pre-generation filters rely on heuristics or uncalibrated LLM confidence scores, offering no statistical control over retained evidence. We evaluate and demonstrate context engineering through conformal prediction, a coverage-controlled filtering framework that removes irrelevant content while preserving recall of supporting evidence. Using both embedding- and LLM-based scoring functions, we test this approach on the NeuCLIR and RAGTIME collections. Conformal filtering consistently meets its target coverage, ensuring that a specified fraction of relevant snippets are retained, and reduces retained context by 2-3x relative to unfiltered retrieval. On NeuCLIR, downstream factual accuracy measured by ARGUE F1 improves under strict filtering and remains stable at moderate coverage, indicating that most discarded material is redundant or irrelevant. These results demonstrate that conformal prediction enables reliable, coverage-controlled context reduction in RAG, offering a model-agnostic and principled approach to context engineering.

Label noise is prevalent in machine learning datasets. It is crucial to identify and remove label noise because models trained on noisy data can have substantially reduced accuracy and generalizability. Most existing label noise detection approaches are designed for classification tasks, and data cleaning for outcome prediction analysis is relatively unexplored. Inspired by the fluctuations in performance across different folds in cross-validation, we propose Repeated Cross-Validations for label noise estimation (ReCoV) to address this gap. ReCoV constructs a noise histogram that ranks the noise level of samples based on a large number of cross-validations by recording sample IDs in each worst-performing fold. We further propose three approaches for identifying noisy samples based on noise histograms to address increasingly complex noise distributions. We show that ReCoV outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for label cleaning in a classification task benchmark. More importantly, we show that removing ReCoV-identified noisy samples in two medical imaging outcome prediction datasets significantly improves model performance on test sets. As a statistical approach that does not rely on hyperparameters, noise distributions, or model structures, ReCoV is compatible with any machine learning analysis.

The two-stage object pose estimation paradigm first detects semantic keypoints on the image and then estimates the 6D pose by minimizing reprojection errors. Despite performing well on standard benchmarks, existing techniques offer no provable guarantees on the quality and uncertainty of the estimation. In this paper, we inject two fundamental changes, namely conformal keypoint detection and geometric uncertainty propagation, into the two-stage paradigm and propose the first pose estimator that endows an estimation with provable and computable worst-case error bounds. On one hand, conformal keypoint detection applies the statistical machinery of inductive conformal prediction to convert heuristic keypoint detections into circular or elliptical prediction sets that cover the groundtruth keypoints with a user-specified marginal probability (e.g., 90%). Geometric uncertainty propagation, on the other, propagates the geometric constraints on the keypoints to the 6D object pose, leading to a Pose UnceRtainty SEt (PURSE) that guarantees coverage of the groundtruth pose with the same probability. The PURSE, however, is a nonconvex set that does not directly lead to estimated poses and uncertainties. Therefore, we develop RANdom SAmple averaGing (RANSAG) to compute an average pose and apply semidefinite relaxation to upper bound the worst-case errors between the average pose and the groundtruth. On the LineMOD Occlusion dataset we demonstrate: (i) the PURSE covers the groundtruth with valid probabilities; (ii) the worst-case error bounds provide correct uncertainty quantification; and (iii) the average pose achieves better or similar accuracy as representative methods based on sparse keypoints.

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

Part-of-speech (POS) tagging is a process of assigning the words in a text corresponding to a particular part of speech. A fundamental version of POS tagging is the identification of words as nouns, verbs, adjectives etc. For processing natural languages, Part of Speech tagging is a prominent tool. It is one of the simplest as well as most constant and statistical model for many NLP applications. POS Tagging is an initial stage of linguistics, text analysis like information retrieval, machine translator, text to speech synthesis, information extraction etc. In POS Tagging we assign a Part of Speech tag to each word in a sentence and literature. Various approaches have been proposed to implement POS taggers. In this paper we present a Marathi part of speech tagger. It is morphologically rich language. Marathi is spoken by the native people of Maharashtra. The general approach used for development of tagger is statistical using Unigram, Bigram, Trigram and HMM Methods. It presents a clear idea about all the algorithms with suitable examples. It also introduces a tag set for Marathi which can be used for tagging Marathi text. In this paper we have shown the development of the tagger as well as compared to check the accuracy of taggers output. The three Marathi POS taggers viz. Unigram, Bigram, Trigram and HMM gives the accuracy of 77.38%, 90.30%, 91.46% and 93.82% respectively.

In this work, we study an integrated fault detection and classification framework called FARM for fast, accurate, and robust online chemical process monitoring. The FARM framework integrates the latest advancements in statistical process control (SPC) for monitoring nonparametric and heterogeneous data streams with novel data analysis approaches based on Riemannian geometry together in a hierarchical framework for online process monitoring. We conduct a systematic evaluation of the FARM monitoring framework using the Tennessee Eastman Process (TEP) dataset. Results show that FARM performs competitively against state-of-the-art process monitoring algorithms by achieving a good balance among fault detection rate (FDR), fault detection speed (FDS), and false alarm rate (FAR). Specifically, FARM achieved an average FDR of 96.97% while also outperforming benchmark methods in successfully detecting hard-to-detect faults that are previously known, including Faults 3, 9 and 15, with FDRs being 97.08%, 96.30% and 95.99%, respectively. In terms of FAR, our FARM framework allows practitioners to customize their choice of FAR, thereby offering great flexibility. Moreover, we report a significant improvement in average fault classification accuracy during online monitoring from 61% to 82% when leveraging Riemannian geometric analysis, and further to 84.5% when incorporating additional features from SPC. This illustrates the synergistic effect of integrating fault detection and classification in a holistic, hierarchical monitoring framework.

The wording of natural language prompts has been shown to influence the performance of large language models (LLMs), yet the role of politeness and tone remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate how varying levels of prompt politeness affect model accuracy on multiple-choice questions. We created a dataset of 50 base questions spanning mathematics, science, and history, each rewritten into five tone variants: Very Polite, Polite, Neutral, Rude, and Very Rude, yielding 250 unique prompts. Using ChatGPT 4o, we evaluated responses across these conditions and applied paired sample t-tests to assess statistical significance. Contrary to expectations, impolite prompts consistently outperformed polite ones, with accuracy ranging from 80.8% for Very Polite prompts to 84.8% for Very Rude prompts. These findings differ from earlier studies that associated rudeness with poorer outcomes, suggesting that newer LLMs may respond differently to tonal variation. Our results highlight the importance of studying pragmatic aspects of prompting and raise broader questions about the social dimensions of human-AI interaction.

Audio deepfake detection systems trained on one dataset often fail when deployed on data from different sources due to distributional shifts in recording conditions, synthesis methods, and acoustic environments. We present a modular pipeline for unsupervised domain adaptation that combines pre-trained Wav2Vec 2.0 embeddings with statistical transformations to improve cross-domain generalization without requiring labeled target data. Our approach applies power transformation for feature normalization, ANOVA-based feature selection, joint PCA for domain-agnostic dimensionality reduction, and CORAL alignment to match source and target covariance structures before classification via logistic regression. We evaluate on two cross-domain transfer scenarios: ASVspoof 2019 LA to Fake-or-Real (FoR) and FoR to ASVspoof, achieving 62.7--63.6\% accuracy with balanced performance across real and fake classes. Systematic ablation experiments reveal that feature selection (+3.5%) and CORAL alignment (+3.2%) provide the largest individual contributions, with the complete pipeline improving accuracy by 10.7% over baseline. While performance is modest compared to within-domain detection (94-96%), our pipeline offers transparency and modularity, making it suitable for deployment scenarios requiring interpretable decisions.

Credit risk modeling relies extensively on Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Information Value (IV) for feature engineering, and Population Stability Index (PSI) for drift monitoring, yet their theoretical foundations remain disconnected. We establish a unified information-theoretic framework revealing these industry-standard metrics as instances of classical information divergences. Specifically, we prove that IV exactly equals PSI (Jeffreys divergence) computed between good and bad credit outcomes over identical bins. Through the delta method applied to WoE transformations, we derive standard errors for IV and PSI, enabling formal hypothesis testing and probabilistic fairness constraints for the first time. We formalize credit modeling's inherent performance-fairness trade-off as maximizing IV for predictive power while minimizing IV for protected attributes. Using automated binning with depth-1 XGBoost stumps, we compare three encoding strategies: logistic regression with one-hot encoding, WoE transformation, and constrained XGBoost. All methods achieve comparable predictive performance (AUC 0.82-0.84), demonstrating that principled, information-theoretic binning outweighs encoding choice. Mixed-integer programming traces Pareto-efficient solutions along the performance-fairness frontier with uncertainty quantification. This framework bridges theory and practice, providing the first rigorous statistical foundation for widely-used credit risk metrics while offering principled tools for balancing accuracy and fairness in regulated environments.

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data drift is critical in machine learning models. Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is a machine learning model developed by Jeff Hawkins, inspired by how the human brain processes information. It is a biologically inspired model of memory that is similar in structure to the neocortex, and whose performance is claimed to be comparable to state of the art models in detecting anomalies in time series data. Another unique benefit of HTMs is its independence from training and testing cycle; all the learning takes place online with streaming data and no separate training and testing cycle is required. In sequential learning paradigm, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) offers some unique benefit for online learning and inference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid framework combining HTM and SPRT for real-time data drift detection and anomaly identification. Unlike existing data drift methods, our approach eliminates frequent retraining and ensures low false positive rates. HTMs currently work with one dimensional or univariate data. In a second study, we also propose an application of HTM in multidimensional supervised scenario for anomaly detection by combining the outputs of multiple HTM columns, one for each dimension of the data, through a neural network. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional drift detection techniques like the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, Wasserstein distance, and Population Stability Index (PSI) in terms of accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. Our experiments also provide insights into optimizing hyperparameters for real-time deployment in domains such as Telecom.

As a promising approach to deal with distributed data, Federated Learning (FL) achieves major advancements in recent years. FL enables collaborative model training by exploiting the raw data dispersed in multiple edge devices. However, the data is generally non-independent and identically distributed, i.e., statistical heterogeneity, and the edge devices significantly differ in terms of both computation and communication capacity, i.e., system heterogeneity. The statistical heterogeneity leads to severe accuracy degradation while the system heterogeneity significantly prolongs the training process. In order to address the heterogeneity issue, we propose an Asynchronous Staleness-aware Model Update FL framework, i.e., FedASMU, with two novel methods. First, we propose an asynchronous FL system model with a dynamical model aggregation method between updated local models and the global model on the server for superior accuracy and high efficiency. Then, we propose an adaptive local model adjustment method by aggregating the fresh global model with local models on devices to further improve the accuracy. Extensive experimentation with 6 models and 5 public datasets demonstrates that FedASMU significantly outperforms baseline approaches in terms of accuracy (0.60% to 23.90% higher) and efficiency (3.54% to 97.98% faster).

Model performance evaluation is a critical and expensive task in machine learning and computer vision. Without clear guidelines, practitioners often estimate model accuracy using a one-time completely random selection of the data. However, by employing tailored sampling and estimation strategies, one can obtain more precise estimates and reduce annotation costs. In this paper, we propose a statistical framework for model evaluation that includes stratification, sampling, and estimation components. We examine the statistical properties of each component and evaluate their efficiency (precision). One key result of our work is that stratification via k-means clustering based on accurate predictions of model performance yields efficient estimators. Our experiments on computer vision datasets show that this method consistently provides more precise accuracy estimates than the traditional simple random sampling, even with substantial efficiency gains of 10x. We also find that model-assisted estimators, which leverage predictions of model accuracy on the unlabeled portion of the dataset, are generally more efficient than the traditional estimates based solely on the labeled data.

Statically analyzing dynamically-typed code is a challenging endeavor, as even seemingly trivial tasks such as determining the targets of procedure calls are non-trivial without knowing the types of objects at compile time. Addressing this challenge, gradual typing is increasingly added to dynamically-typed languages, a prominent example being TypeScript that introduces static typing to JavaScript. Gradual typing improves the developer's ability to verify program behavior, contributing to robust, secure and debuggable programs. In practice, however, users only sparsely annotate types directly. At the same time, conventional type inference faces performance-related challenges as program size grows. Statistical techniques based on machine learning offer faster inference, but although recent approaches demonstrate overall improved accuracy, they still perform significantly worse on user-defined types than on the most common built-in types. Limiting their real-world usefulness even more, they rarely integrate with user-facing applications. We propose CodeTIDAL5, a Transformer-based model trained to reliably predict type annotations. For effective result retrieval and re-integration, we extract usage slices from a program's code property graph. Comparing our approach against recent neural type inference systems, our model outperforms the current state-of-the-art by 7.85% on the ManyTypes4TypeScript benchmark, achieving 71.27% accuracy overall. Furthermore, we present JoernTI, an integration of our approach into Joern, an open source static analysis tool, and demonstrate that the analysis benefits from the additional type information. As our model allows for fast inference times even on commodity CPUs, making our system available through Joern leads to high accessibility and facilitates security research.

Healthcare federated learning requires strong privacy guarantees while maintaining computational efficiency across resource-constrained medical institutions. This paper presents MedHE, a novel framework combining adaptive gradient sparsification with CKKS homomorphic encryption to enable privacy-preserving collaborative learning on sensitive medical data. Our approach introduces a dynamic threshold mechanism with error compensation for top-k gradient selection, achieving 97.5 percent communication reduction while preserving model utility. We provide formal security analysis under Ring Learning with Errors assumptions and demonstrate differential privacy guarantees with epsilon less than or equal to 1.0. Statistical testing across 5 independent trials shows MedHE achieves 89.5 percent plus or minus 0.8 percent accuracy, maintaining comparable performance to standard federated learning (p=0.32) while reducing communication from 1277 MB to 32 MB per training round. Comprehensive evaluation demonstrates practical feasibility for real-world medical deployments with HIPAA compliance and scalability to 100 plus institutions.

Pre-trained neural language models give high performance on natural language inference (NLI) tasks. But whether they actually understand the meaning of the processed sequences remains unclear. We propose a new diagnostics test suite which allows to assess whether a dataset constitutes a good testbed for evaluating the models' meaning understanding capabilities. We specifically apply controlled corruption transformations to widely used benchmarks (MNLI and ANLI), which involve removing entire word classes and often lead to non-sensical sentence pairs. If model accuracy on the corrupted data remains high, then the dataset is likely to contain statistical biases and artefacts that guide prediction. Inversely, a large decrease in model accuracy indicates that the original dataset provides a proper challenge to the models' reasoning capabilities. Hence, our proposed controls can serve as a crash test for developing high quality data for NLI tasks.

LLM-as-judge evaluation has become the de facto standard for scaling model assessment, but the practice is statistically unsound: uncalibrated scores can invert preferences, naive confidence intervals on uncalibrated scores achieve near-0% coverage, and importance-weighted estimators collapse under limited overlap despite high effective sample size (ESS). We introduce Causal Judge Evaluation (CJE), a framework that fixes all three failures. On n=4,961 Chatbot Arena prompts (after filtering from 5k), CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at full sample size (94% averaged across configurations), matching oracle quality, at 14x lower cost (for ranking 5 policies) by calibrating a 16x cheaper judge on just 5% oracle labels (~250 labels). CJE combines three components: (i) AutoCal-R, reward calibration via mean-preserving isotonic regression; (ii) SIMCal-W, weight stabilization via stacking of S-monotone candidates; and (iii) Oracle-Uncertainty Aware (OUA) inference that propagates calibration uncertainty into confidence intervals. We formalize the Coverage-Limited Efficiency (CLE) diagnostic, which explains why IPS-style estimators fail even when ESS exceeds 90%: the logger rarely visits regions where target policies concentrate. Key findings: SNIPS inverts rankings even with reward calibration (38% pairwise, negative Kendall's tau) due to weight instability; calibrated IPS remains near-random (47%) despite weight stabilization, consistent with CLE; OUA improves coverage from near-0% to ~86% (Direct) and ~96% (stacked-DR), where naive intervals severely under-cover.

Causal discovery is essential for advancing data-driven fields such as scientific AI and data analysis, yet existing approaches face significant time- and space-efficiency bottlenecks when scaling to large graphs. To address this challenge, we present CauScale, a neural architecture designed for efficient causal discovery that scales inference to graphs with up to 1000 nodes. CauScale improves time efficiency via a reduction unit that compresses data embeddings and improves space efficiency by adopting tied attention weights to avoid maintaining axis-specific attention maps. To keep high causal discovery accuracy, CauScale adopts a two-stream design: a data stream extracts relational evidence from high-dimensional observations, while a graph stream integrates statistical graph priors and preserves key structural signals. CauScale successfully scales to 500-node graphs during training, where prior work fails due to space limitations. Across testing data with varying graph scales and causal mechanisms, CauScale achieves 99.6% mAP on in-distribution data and 84.4% on out-of-distribution data, while delivering 4-13,000 times inference speedups over prior methods. Our project page is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauScale.

Word evolution refers to the changing meanings and associations of words throughout time, as a byproduct of human language evolution. By studying word evolution, we can infer social trends and language constructs over different periods of human history. However, traditional techniques such as word representation learning do not adequately capture the evolving language structure and vocabulary. In this paper, we develop a dynamic statistical model to learn time-aware word vector representation. We propose a model that simultaneously learns time-aware embeddings and solves the resulting "alignment problem". This model is trained on a crawled NYTimes dataset. Additionally, we develop multiple intuitive evaluation strategies of temporal word embeddings. Our qualitative and quantitative tests indicate that our method not only reliably captures this evolution over time, but also consistently outperforms state-of-the-art temporal embedding approaches on both semantic accuracy and alignment quality.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have benefited enormously from scaling, yet these gains are bounded by five fundamental limitations: (1) hallucination, (2) context compression, (3) reasoning degradation, (4) retrieval fragility, and (5) multimodal misalignment. While existing surveys describe these phenomena empirically, they lack a rigorous theoretical synthesis connecting them to the foundational limits of computation, information, and learning. This work closes that gap by presenting a unified, proof-informed framework that formalizes the innate theoretical ceilings of LLM scaling. First, computability and uncomputability imply an irreducible residue of error: for any computably enumerable model family, diagonalization guarantees inputs on which some model must fail, and undecidable queries (e.g., halting-style tasks) induce infinite failure sets for all computable predictors. Second, information-theoretic and statistical constraints bound attainable accuracy even on decidable tasks, finite description length enforces compression error, and long-tail factual knowledge requires prohibitive sample complexity. Third, geometric and computational effects compress long contexts far below their nominal size due to positional under-training, encoding attenuation, and softmax crowding. We further show how likelihood-based training favors pattern completion over inference, how retrieval under token limits suffers from semantic drift and coupling noise, and how multimodal scaling inherits shallow cross-modal alignment. Across sections, we pair theorems and empirical evidence to outline where scaling helps, where it saturates, and where it cannot progress, providing both theoretical foundations and practical mitigation paths like bounded-oracle retrieval, positional curricula, and sparse or hierarchical attention.

Despite achieving high accuracy on medical benchmarks, LLMs exhibit the Einstellung Effect in clinical diagnosis--relying on statistical shortcuts rather than patient-specific evidence, causing misdiagnosis in atypical cases. Existing benchmarks fail to detect this critical failure mode. We introduce MedEinst, a counterfactual benchmark with 5,383 paired clinical cases across 49 diseases. Each pair contains a control case and a "trap" case with altered discriminative evidence that flips the diagnosis. We measure susceptibility via Bias Trap Rate--probability of misdiagnosing traps despite correctly diagnosing controls. Extensive Evaluation of 17 LLMs shows frontier models achieve high baseline accuracy but severe bias trap rates. Thus, we propose ECR-Agent, aligning LLM reasoning with Evidence-Based Medicine standard via two components: (1) Dynamic Causal Inference (DCI) performs structured reasoning through dual-pathway perception, dynamic causal graph reasoning across three levels (association, intervention, counterfactual), and evidence audit for final diagnosis; (2) Critic-Driven Graph and Memory Evolution (CGME) iteratively refines the system by storing validated reasoning paths in an exemplar base and consolidating disease-specific knowledge into evolving illness graphs. Source code is to be released.

Context. Cosmic voids are vast underdense regions in the cosmic web that encode crucial information about structure formation, the composition of the Universe, and its expansion history. Due to their lower density, these regions are less affected by non-linear gravitational dynamics, making them suitable candidates for analysis using semi-analytic methods. Aims. We assess the accuracy of the PINOCCHIO code, a fast tool for generating dark matter halo catalogs based on Lagrangian Perturbation Theory, in modeling the statistical properties of cosmic voids. We validate this approach by comparing the resulting void statistics measured from PINOCCHIO to those obtained from N-body simulations. Methods. We generate a set of simulations using PINOCCHIO and OpenGADGET3, assuming a fiducial cosmology and varying the resolution. For a given resolution, the simulations share the same initial conditions between the different simulation codes. Snapshots are saved at multiple redshifts for each simulation and post-processed using the watershed void finder VIDE to identify cosmic voids. For each simulation code, we measure the following statistics: void size function, void ellipticity function, core density function, and the void radial density profile. We use these statistics to quantify the accuracy of PINOCCHIO relative to OpenGADGET3 in the context of cosmic voids. Results. We find agreement for all void statistics at better than 2{\sigma} between PINOCCHIO and OpenGADGET3, with no systematic difference in redshift trends. This demonstrates that the PINOCCHIO code can reliably produce void statistics with high computational efficiency compared to full N-body simulations.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Binary Neural Networks (BNNs) have emerged as a promising solution for reducing the memory footprint and compute costs of deep neural networks. BNNs, on the other hand, suffer from information loss because binary activations are limited to only two values, resulting in reduced accuracy. To improve the accuracy, previous studies have attempted to control the distribution of binary activation by manually shifting the threshold of the activation function or making the shift amount trainable. During the process, they usually depended on statistical information computed from a batch. We argue that using statistical data from a batch fails to capture the crucial information for each input instance in BNN computations, and the differences between statistical information computed from each instance need to be considered when determining the binary activation threshold of each instance. Based on the concept, we propose the Binary Neural Network with INSTAnce-aware threshold (INSTA-BNN), which decides the activation threshold value considering the difference between statistical data computed from a batch and each instance. The proposed INSTA-BNN outperforms the baseline by 2.5% and 2.3% on the ImageNet classification task with comparable computing cost, achieving 68.0% and 71.7% top-1 accuracy on ResNet-18 and MobileNetV1 based models, respectively.

In this paper, we present a new application-focused benchmark dataset and results from a set of baseline Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning models for prediction of match outcomes for games of football (soccer). By doing so we give a baseline for the prediction accuracy that can be achieved exploiting both statistical match data and contextual articles from human sports journalists. Our dataset is focuses on a representative time-period over 6 seasons of the English Premier League, and includes newspaper match previews from The Guardian. The models presented in this paper achieve an accuracy of 63.18% showing a 6.9% boost on the traditional statistical methods.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

Audio question answering (AQA) requires models to understand acoustic content and perform complex reasoning. Current models struggle with dataset imbalances and unstable training dynamics. This work combines curriculum learning with statistical data balancing to address these challenges. The method labels question difficulty using language models, then trains progressively from easy to hard examples. Statistical filtering removes overrepresented audio categories, and guided decoding constrains outputs to valid multiple-choice formats. Experiments on the DCASE 2025 training set and five additional public datasets show that data curation improves accuracy by 11.7% over baseline models, achieving 64.2% on the DCASE 2025 benchmark.

Tooth segmentation in Cone-Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) remains challenging, especially for fine structures like root apices, which is critical for assessing root resorption in orthodontics. We introduce GEPAR3D, a novel approach that unifies instance detection and multi-class segmentation into a single step tailored to improve root segmentation. Our method integrates a Statistical Shape Model of dentition as a geometric prior, capturing anatomical context and morphological consistency without enforcing restrictive adjacency constraints. We leverage a deep watershed method, modeling each tooth as a continuous 3D energy basin encoding voxel distances to boundaries. This instance-aware representation ensures accurate segmentation of narrow, complex root apices. Trained on publicly available CBCT scans from a single center, our method is evaluated on external test sets from two in-house and two public medical centers. GEPAR3D achieves the highest overall segmentation performance, averaging a Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) of 95.0% (+2.8% over the second-best method) and increasing recall to 95.2% (+9.5%) across all test sets. Qualitative analyses demonstrated substantial improvements in root segmentation quality, indicating significant potential for more accurate root resorption assessment and enhanced clinical decision-making in orthodontics. We provide the implementation and dataset at https://github.com/tomek1911/GEPAR3D.

Recent generative models can produce images that appear highly realistic, raising challenges in distinguishing real and AI-generated images. Yet existing detectors based on pre-trained feature extractors tend to over-rely on global semantics, limiting sensitivity to the critical micro-defects. In this work, we propose Micro-Defects expose Macro-Fakes (MDMF), a local distribution-aware detection framework that amplifies micro-scale statistical irregularities into macro-level distributional discrepancies. To avoid localized forensic cues being diluted by plain aggregation, we introduce a learnable Patch Forensic Signature that projects semantic patch embeddings into a compact forensic latent space. We then use Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) to quantify distributional discrepancies between generated and real images. Our theory-grounded analysis shows that patch-wise modeling yields provably larger discrepancies when localized forensic signals are present in generated images, enabling more reliable separation from real images. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MDMF consistently outperforms baseline detectors across multiple benchmarks, validating its general effectiveness. Project page: https://zbox1005.github.io/MDMF-project/

Autonomous agents, especially delegated systems with memory, persistent context, and multi-step planning, pose a measurement problem not present in stateless models: an agent that preserves continued operation as a terminal objective and one that does so merely instrumentally can produce observationally similar trajectories. External behavioral monitoring cannot reliably distinguish between them. We introduce the Unified Continuation-Interest Protocol (UCIP), a multi-criterion detection framework that moves this distinction from behavior to the latent structure of agent trajectories. UCIP encodes trajectories with a Quantum Boltzmann Machine (QBM), a classical algorithm based on the density-matrix formalism of quantum statistical mechanics, and measures the von Neumann entropy of the reduced density matrix induced by a bipartition of hidden units. We test whether agents with terminal continuation objectives (Type A) produce latent states with higher entanglement entropy than agents whose continuation is merely instrumental (Type B). Higher entanglement reflects stronger cross-partition statistical coupling. On gridworld agents with known ground-truth objectives, UCIP achieves 100% detection accuracy and 1.0 AUC-ROC on held-out non-adversarial evaluation under the frozen Phase I gate. The entanglement gap between Type A and Type B agents is Delta = 0.381 (p < 0.001, permutation test). Pearson r = 0.934 across an 11-point interpolation sweep indicates that, within this synthetic family, UCIP tracks graded changes in continuation weighting rather than merely a binary label. Among the tested models, only the QBM achieves positive Delta. All computations are classical; "quantum" refers only to the mathematical formalism. UCIP does not detect consciousness or subjective experience; it detects statistical structure in latent representations that correlates with known objectives.

Radio frequency (RF) signal mapping, which is the process of analyzing and predicting the RF signal strength and distribution across specific areas, is crucial for cellular network planning and deployment. Traditional approaches to RF signal mapping rely on statistical models constructed based on measurement data, which offer low complexity but often lack accuracy, or ray tracing tools, which provide enhanced precision for the target area but suffer from increased computational complexity. Recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a data-driven method for modeling RF signal propagation, which leverages models trained on synthetic datasets to perform RF signal mapping in "unseen" areas. In this paper, we present Geo2SigMap, an ML-based framework for efficient and high-fidelity RF signal mapping using geographic databases. First, we develop an automated framework that seamlessly integrates three open-source tools: OpenStreetMap (geographic databases), Blender (computer graphics), and Sionna (ray tracing), enabling the efficient generation of large-scale 3D building maps and ray tracing models. Second, we propose a cascaded U-Net model, which is pre-trained on synthetic datasets and employed to generate detailed RF signal maps, leveraging environmental information and sparse measurement data. Finally, we evaluate the performance of Geo2SigMap via a real-world measurement campaign, where three types of user equipment (UE) collect over 45,000 data points related to cellular information from six LTE cells operating in the citizens broadband radio service (CBRS) band. Our results show that Geo2SigMap achieves an average root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 6.04 dB for predicting the reference signal received power (RSRP) at the UE, representing an average RMSE improvement of 3.59 dB compared to existing methods.

Topological data analysis (TDA) is an area of data science that focuses on using invariants from algebraic topology to provide multiscale shape descriptors for geometric data sets such as point clouds. One of the most important such descriptors is {\em persistent homology}, which encodes the change in shape as a filtration parameter changes; a typical parameter is the feature scale. For many data sets, it is useful to simultaneously vary multiple filtration parameters, for example feature scale and density. While the theoretical properties of single parameter persistent homology are well understood, less is known about the multiparameter case. In particular, a central question is the problem of representing multiparameter persistent homology by elements of a vector space for integration with standard machine learning algorithms. Existing approaches to this problem either ignore most of the multiparameter information to reduce to the one-parameter case or are heuristic and potentially unstable in the face of noise. In this article, we introduce a new general representation framework that leverages recent results on {\em decompositions} of multiparameter persistent homology. This framework is rich in information, fast to compute, and encompasses previous approaches. Moreover, we establish theoretical stability guarantees under this framework as well as efficient algorithms for practical computation, making this framework an applicable and versatile tool for analyzing geometric and point cloud data. We validate our stability results and algorithms with numerical experiments that demonstrate statistical convergence, prediction accuracy, and fast running times on several real data sets.

In computational social science (CSS), researchers analyze documents to explain social and political phenomena. In most scenarios, CSS researchers first obtain labels for documents and then explain labels using interpretable regression analyses in the second step. One increasingly common way to annotate documents cheaply at scale is through large language models (LLMs). However, like other scalable ways of producing annotations, such surrogate labels are often imperfect and biased. We present a new algorithm for using imperfect annotation surrogates for downstream statistical analyses while guaranteeing statistical properties -- like asymptotic unbiasedness and proper uncertainty quantification -- which are fundamental to CSS research. We show that direct use of surrogate labels in downstream statistical analyses leads to substantial bias and invalid confidence intervals, even with high surrogate accuracy of 80-90%. To address this, we build on debiased machine learning to propose the design-based supervised learning (DSL) estimator. DSL employs a doubly-robust procedure to combine surrogate labels with a smaller number of high-quality, gold-standard labels. Our approach guarantees valid inference for downstream statistical analyses, even when surrogates are arbitrarily biased and without requiring stringent assumptions, by controlling the probability of sampling documents for gold-standard labeling. Both our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that DSL provides valid statistical inference while achieving root mean squared errors comparable to existing alternatives that focus only on prediction without inferential guarantees.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

High-fidelity clothing reconstruction is the key to achieving photorealism in a wide range of applications including human digitization, virtual try-on, etc. Recent advances in learning-based approaches have accomplished unprecedented accuracy in recovering unclothed human shape and pose from single images, thanks to the availability of powerful statistical models, e.g. SMPL, learned from a large number of body scans. In contrast, modeling and recovering clothed human and 3D garments remains notoriously difficult, mostly due to the lack of large-scale clothing models available for the research community. We propose to fill this gap by introducing Deep Fashion3D, the largest collection to date of 3D garment models, with the goal of establishing a novel benchmark and dataset for the evaluation of image-based garment reconstruction systems. Deep Fashion3D contains 2078 models reconstructed from real garments, which covers 10 different categories and 563 garment instances. It provides rich annotations including 3D feature lines, 3D body pose and the corresponded multi-view real images. In addition, each garment is randomly posed to enhance the variety of real clothing deformations. To demonstrate the advantage of Deep Fashion3D, we propose a novel baseline approach for single-view garment reconstruction, which leverages the merits of both mesh and implicit representations. A novel adaptable template is proposed to enable the learning of all types of clothing in a single network. Extensive experiments have been conducted on the proposed dataset to verify its significance and usefulness. We will make Deep Fashion3D publicly available upon publication.

Recent advances in large-scale language models (LLMs) have made multi-agent architectures attractive for challenging reasoning tasks. However, many existing systems rely on stochastic routing or ad-hoc heuristics, making their behavior difficult to reproduce and their decision process hard to interpret. We propose ORCH, a deterministic coordination framework for discrete-choice reasoning that orchestrates heterogeneous LLMs. ORCH follows a ``many analyses, one decision'' paradigm: multiple base models independently produce structured analyses, and a dedicated merge agent outputs the final choice. The framework uses fixed rules for task decomposition and answer aggregation, keeping the pipeline predictable, reproducible, and training-free. Determinism here refers to fixed routing and aggregation rules under a fixed evaluation protocol, rather than strict bit-level reproducibility across deployments. To exploit model complementarity, we optionally introduce an EMA-guided router that updates agent selection using historical accuracy, latency, or cost; since it relies on answer-based feedback, it is mainly intended for benchmarking, controlled evaluation, or delayed-feedback settings. Experiments on MMLU, MMLU-Pro, and GSM8K show that ORCH consistently outperforms single-model baselines and a majority-vote ensemble. On MMLU-Pro, ORCH improves accuracy by over 10 points compared to the strongest baseline, and on GSM8K it yields gains exceeding 50 points; McNemar tests confirm statistical significance. The EMA router provides an additional 0.7--2.0 point accuracy boost, and ablations show that both multi-agent collaboration and routing contribute substantially. Overall, ORCH offers a practical path toward controllable, interpretable, and deployment-ready LLM-based agent systems for discrete-choice reasoning.

The increasing complexity of Artificial Intelligence models poses challenges to interpretability, particularly in the healthcare sector. This study investigates the impact of deep learning model complexity and Explainable AI (XAI) efficacy, utilizing four ResNet architectures (ResNet-18, 34, 50, 101). Through methodical experimentation on 4,369 lung X-ray images of COVID-19-infected and healthy patients, the research evaluates models' classification performance and the relevance of corresponding XAI explanations with respect to the ground-truth disease masks. Results indicate that the increase in model complexity is associated with a decrease in classification accuracy and AUC-ROC scores (ResNet-18: 98.4%, 0.997; ResNet-101: 95.9%, 0.988). Notably, in eleven out of twelve statistical tests performed, no statistically significant differences occurred between XAI quantitative metrics - Relevance Rank Accuracy and the proposed Positive Attribution Ratio - across trained models. These results suggest that increased model complexity does not consistently lead to higher performance or relevance of explanations for models' decision-making processes.

This study examines the efficacy of various neural network (NN) models in interpreting mental constructs via electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. Through the assessment of 16 prevalent NN models and their variants across four brain-computer interface (BCI) paradigms, we gauged their information representation capability. Rooted in comprehensive literature review findings, we proposed EEGNeX, a novel, purely ConvNet-based architecture. We pitted it against both existing cutting-edge strategies and the Mother of All BCI Benchmarks (MOABB) involving 11 distinct EEG motor imagination (MI) classification tasks and revealed that EEGNeX surpasses other state-of-the-art methods. Notably, it shows up to 2.1%-8.5% improvement in the classification accuracy in different scenarios with statistical significance (p < 0.05) compared to its competitors. This study not only provides deeper insights into designing efficient NN models for EEG data but also lays groundwork for future explorations into the relationship between bioelectric brain signals and NN architectures. For the benefit of broader scientific collaboration, we have made all benchmark models, including EEGNeX, publicly available at (https://github.com/chenxiachan/EEGNeX).

Post-disaster aid allocation in developing nations often suffers from systematic biases that disadvantage vulnerable regions, perpetuating historical inequities. This paper presents a fairness-aware artificial intelligence framework for prioritizing post-flood aid distribution in Bangladesh, a country highly susceptible to recurring flood disasters. Using real data from the 2022 Bangladesh floods that affected 7.2 million people and caused 405.5 million US dollars in damages, we develop an adversarial debiasing model that predicts flood vulnerability while actively removing biases against marginalized districts and rural areas. Our approach adapts fairness-aware representation learning techniques from healthcare AI to disaster management, employing a gradient reversal layer that forces the model to learn bias-invariant representations. Experimental results on 87 upazilas across 11 districts demonstrate that our framework reduces statistical parity difference by 41.6 percent, decreases regional fairness gaps by 43.2 percent, and maintains strong predictive accuracy (R-squared=0.784 vs baseline 0.811). The model generates actionable priority rankings ensuring aid reaches the most vulnerable populations based on genuine need rather than historical allocation patterns. This work demonstrates how algorithmic fairness techniques can be effectively applied to humanitarian contexts, providing decision-makers with tools to implement more equitable disaster recovery strategies.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are critical for automating complex tasks, yet their practical deployment is severely hampered by the challenge of failure attribution. Current diagnostic tools, which rely on statistical correlations, are fundamentally inadequate; on challenging benchmarks like Who\&When, state-of-the-art methods achieve less than 15\% accuracy in locating the root-cause step of a failure. To address this critical gap, we introduce the first failure attribution framework for MAS grounded in multi-granularity causal inference. Our approach makes two key technical contributions: (1) a performance causal inversion principle, which correctly models performance dependencies by reversing the data flow in execution logs, combined with Shapley values to accurately assign agent-level blame; (2) a novel causal discovery algorithm, CDC-MAS, that robustly identifies critical failure steps by tackling the non-stationary nature of MAS interaction data. The framework's attribution results directly fuel an automated optimization loop, generating targeted suggestions whose efficacy is validated via counterfactual simulations. Evaluations on the Who\&When and TRAIL benchmarks demonstrate a significant leap in performance. Our method achieves up to 36.2\% step-level accuracy. Crucially, the generated optimizations boost overall task success rates by an average of 22.4\%. This work provides a principled and effective solution for debugging complex agent interactions, paving the way for more reliable and interpretable multi-agent systems.

Despite rapid advancements in the research and deployment of large language models (LLMs), the statistical distribution of model parameters, as well as their influence on initialization, training dynamics, and downstream efficiency, has received surprisingly little attention. A recent work introduced BackSlash, a training-time compression algorithm. It first demonstrated that pre-trained LLM parameters follow generalized Gaussian distributions (GGDs) better. By optimizing GG priors during training, BackSlash can reduce parameters by up to 90\% with minimal performance loss. Building on this foundational insight, we propose a unified, end-to-end framework for LLM optimization based on the GG model. Our contributions are threefold: (1) GG-based initialization scheme that aligns with the statistical structure of trained models, resulting in faster convergence and improved accuracy; (2) DeepShape, a post-training regularization method that reshapes weight distributions to match a GG profile, improving compressibility with minimized degradation in performance; and (3) RF8, a compact and hardware-efficient 8-bit floating-point format designed for GG-distributed-initialized BackSlash training, enabling low-cost inference without compromising accuracy. Experiments across diverse model architectures show that our framework consistently yields smaller and faster models that match or outperform standard training baselines. By grounding LLM development in principled statistical modeling, this work forges a new path toward efficient, scalable, and hardware-aware AI systems. The code is available on our project page: https://huggingface.co/spaces/shifeng3711/gg_prior.

There are growing implications surrounding generative AI in the speech domain that enable voice cloning and real-time voice conversion from one individual to another. This technology poses a significant ethical threat and could lead to breaches of privacy and misrepresentation, thus there is an urgent need for real-time detection of AI-generated speech for DeepFake Voice Conversion. To address the above emerging issues, the DEEP-VOICE dataset is generated in this study, comprised of real human speech from eight well-known figures and their speech converted to one another using Retrieval-based Voice Conversion. Presenting as a binary classification problem of whether the speech is real or AI-generated, statistical analysis of temporal audio features through t-testing reveals that there are significantly different distributions. Hyperparameter optimisation is implemented for machine learning models to identify the source of speech. Following the training of 208 individual machine learning models over 10-fold cross validation, it is found that the Extreme Gradient Boosting model can achieve an average classification accuracy of 99.3% and can classify speech in real-time, at around 0.004 milliseconds given one second of speech. All data generated for this study is released publicly for future research on AI speech detection.

Large language models (LLMs) reach high accuracy in mathematical reasoning, but individual traces on the same problem diverge; some arrive at the correct answer while others fail. Prior work analyzes failure at the step, chunk, or sentence level, or at tokens where failure has already occurred. Neither identifies the precise token that triggers the shift toward failure. We introduce the cliff token, a token where the token-wise potential drops significantly under an adaptive threshold that scales with the local token-wise potential, based on a one-sided two-proportion z-test. Across seven models and three mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM1K, MATH500, AIME 2025), cliff tokens act as failure triggers; deleting the first cliff token and resampling recovers pass@64 to 1.0, while keeping it limits recovery to between 0.71 and 1.00. We further introduce a cliff taxonomy of deterministic, uncertain, and sampled-off cliffs, defined by greedy choice and token entropy. Each type has distinct probabilistic characteristics, and the taxonomy generalizes across model scales. Finally, we validate the taxonomy via single-token preference optimization at cliff positions (Cliff-DPO). Trained on GSM8K, Cliff-DPO improves accuracy across benchmarks by up to +6.6. Optimizing at uncertain and sampled-off cliffs improves reasoning, while deterministic cliffs do not.

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess prediction confidence and enables abstention when uncertainty is high. Conformal prediction (CP), a leading UQ method, provides statistical guarantees but relies on static thresholds, which fail to adapt to task complexity and evolving data distributions, leading to suboptimal trade-offs in accuracy, coverage, and informativeness. To address this, we propose learnable conformal abstention, integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with CP to optimize abstention thresholds dynamically. By treating CP thresholds as adaptive actions, our approach balances multiple objectives, minimizing prediction set size while maintaining reliable coverage. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLM/VLM benchmarks show our method outperforms Least Ambiguous Classifiers (LAC) and Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS), improving accuracy by up to 3.2%, boosting AUROC for hallucination detection by 22.19%, enhancing uncertainty-guided selective generation (AUARC) by 21.17%, and reducing calibration error by 70%-85%. These improvements hold across multiple models and datasets while consistently meeting the 90% coverage target, establishing our approach as a more effective and flexible solution for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications. The code is available at: {https://github.com/sinatayebati/vlm-uncertainty}.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating factually incorrect information when responding to queries that involve numerical and statistical data or other timely facts. In this paper, we present an approach for enhancing the accuracy of LLMs by integrating them with Data Commons, a vast, open-source repository of public statistics from trusted organizations like the United Nations (UN), Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and global census bureaus. We explore two primary methods: Retrieval Interleaved Generation (RIG), where the LLM is trained to produce natural language queries to retrieve data from Data Commons, and Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG), where relevant data tables are fetched from Data Commons and used to augment the LLM's prompt. We evaluate these methods on a diverse set of queries, demonstrating their effectiveness in improving the factual accuracy of LLM outputs. Our work represents an early step towards building more trustworthy and reliable LLMs that are grounded in verifiable statistical data and capable of complex factual reasoning.

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly tasked with complex real-world analysis (e.g., in financial forecasting, scientific discovery), yet their reasoning suffers from stochastic instability and lacks a verifiable, compositional structure. To address this, we introduce Analytica, a novel agent architecture built on the principle of Soft Propositional Reasoning (SPR). SPR reframes complex analysis as a structured process of estimating the soft truth values of different outcome propositions, allowing us to formally model and minimize the estimation error in terms of its bias and variance. Analytica operationalizes this through a parallel, divide-and-conquer framework that systematically reduces both sources of error. To reduce bias, problems are first decomposed into a tree of subpropositions, and tool-equipped LLM grounder agents are employed, including a novel Jupyter Notebook agent for data-driven analysis, that help to validate and score facts. To reduce variance, Analytica recursively synthesizes these grounded leaves using robust linear models that average out stochastic noise with superior efficiency, scalability, and enable interactive "what-if" scenario analysis. Our theoretical and empirical results on economic, financial, and political forecasting tasks show that Analytica improves 15.84% accuracy on average over diverse base models, achieving 71.06% accuracy with the lowest variance of 6.02% when working with a Deep Research grounder. Our Jupyter Notebook grounder shows strong cost-effectiveness that achieves a close 70.11% accuracy with 90.35% less cost and 52.85% less time. Analytica also exhibits highly noise-resilient and stable performance growth as the analysis depth increases, with a near-linear time complexity, as well as good adaptivity to open-weight LLMs and scientific domains.

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

We present Point2SSM, a novel unsupervised learning approach for constructing correspondence-based statistical shape models (SSMs) directly from raw point clouds. SSM is crucial in clinical research, enabling population-level analysis of morphological variation in bones and organs. Traditional methods of SSM construction have limitations, including the requirement of noise-free surface meshes or binary volumes, reliance on assumptions or templates, and prolonged inference times due to simultaneous optimization of the entire cohort. Point2SSM overcomes these barriers by providing a data-driven solution that infers SSMs directly from raw point clouds, reducing inference burdens and increasing applicability as point clouds are more easily acquired. While deep learning on 3D point clouds has seen success in unsupervised representation learning and shape correspondence, its application to anatomical SSM construction is largely unexplored. We conduct a benchmark of state-of-the-art point cloud deep networks on the SSM task, revealing their limited robustness to clinical challenges such as noisy, sparse, or incomplete input and limited training data. Point2SSM addresses these issues through an attention-based module, providing effective correspondence mappings from learned point features. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms existing networks in terms of accurate surface sampling and correspondence, better capturing population-level statistics.

We study the design of sample-efficient algorithms for reinforcement learning in the presence of rich, high-dimensional observations, formalized via the Block MDP problem. Existing algorithms suffer from either 1) computational intractability, 2) strong statistical assumptions that are not necessarily satisfied in practice, or 3) suboptimal sample complexity. We address these issues by providing the first computationally efficient algorithm that attains rate-optimal sample complexity with respect to the desired accuracy level, with minimal statistical assumptions. Our algorithm, MusIK, combines systematic exploration with representation learning based on multi-step inverse kinematics, a learning objective in which the aim is to predict the learner's own action from the current observation and observations in the (potentially distant) future. MusIK is simple and flexible, and can efficiently take advantage of general-purpose function approximation. Our analysis leverages several new techniques tailored to non-optimistic exploration algorithms, which we anticipate will find broader use.

Multilingual contextual embeddings, such as multilingual BERT and XLM-RoBERTa, have proved useful for many multi-lingual tasks. Previous work probed the cross-linguality of the representations indirectly using zero-shot transfer learning on morphological and syntactic tasks. We instead investigate the language-neutrality of multilingual contextual embeddings directly and with respect to lexical semantics. Our results show that contextual embeddings are more language-neutral and, in general, more informative than aligned static word-type embeddings, which are explicitly trained for language neutrality. Contextual embeddings are still only moderately language-neutral by default, so we propose two simple methods for achieving stronger language neutrality: first, by unsupervised centering of the representation for each language and second, by fitting an explicit projection on small parallel data. Besides, we show how to reach state-of-the-art accuracy on language identification and match the performance of statistical methods for word alignment of parallel sentences without using parallel data.

The software package Volna-OP2 is a robust and efficient code capable of simulating the complete life cycle of a tsunami whilst harnessing the latest High Performance Computing (HPC) architectures. In this paper, a comprehensive error analysis and scalability study of the GPU version of the code is presented. A novel decomposition of the numerical errors into the dispersion and dissipation components is explored. Most tsunami codes exhibit amplitude smearing and/or phase lagging/leading, so the decomposition shown here is a new approach and novel tool for explaining these occurrences. It is the first time that the errors of a tsunami code have been assessed in this manner. To date, Volna-OP2 has been widely used by the tsunami modelling community. In particular its computational efficiency has allowed various sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification studies. Due to the number of simulations required, there is always a trade-off between accuracy and runtime when carrying out these statistical studies. The analysis presented in this paper will guide the user towards an acceptable level of accuracy within a given runtime.

Federated Learning is a distributed learning paradigm with two key challenges that differentiate it from traditional distributed optimization: (1) significant variability in terms of the systems characteristics on each device in the network (systems heterogeneity), and (2) non-identically distributed data across the network (statistical heterogeneity). In this work, we introduce a framework, FedProx, to tackle heterogeneity in federated networks. FedProx can be viewed as a generalization and re-parametrization of FedAvg, the current state-of-the-art method for federated learning. While this re-parameterization makes only minor modifications to the method itself, these modifications have important ramifications both in theory and in practice. Theoretically, we provide convergence guarantees for our framework when learning over data from non-identical distributions (statistical heterogeneity), and while adhering to device-level systems constraints by allowing each participating device to perform a variable amount of work (systems heterogeneity). Practically, we demonstrate that FedProx allows for more robust convergence than FedAvg across a suite of realistic federated datasets. In particular, in highly heterogeneous settings, FedProx demonstrates significantly more stable and accurate convergence behavior relative to FedAvg---improving absolute test accuracy by 22% on average.

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.

Financial bond yield forecasting is challenging due to data scarcity, nonlinear macroeconomic dependencies, and evolving market conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that leverages Causal Generative Adversarial Networks (CausalGANs) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) reinforcement learning (RL) to generate high-fidelity synthetic bond yield data for four major bond categories (AAA, BAA, US10Y, Junk). By incorporating 12 key macroeconomic variables, we ensure statistical fidelity by preserving essential market properties. To transform this market dependent synthetic data into actionable insights, we employ a finetuned Large Language Model (LLM) Qwen2.5-7B that generates trading signals (BUY/HOLD/SELL), risk assessments, and volatility projections. We use automated, human and LLM evaluations, all of which demonstrate that our framework improves forecasting performance over existing methods, with statistical validation via predictive accuracy, MAE evaluation(0.103%), profit/loss evaluation (60% profit rate), LLM evaluation (3.37/5) and expert assessments scoring 4.67 out of 5. The reinforcement learning-enhanced synthetic data generation achieves the least Mean Absolute Error of 0.103, demonstrating its effectiveness in replicating real-world bond market dynamics. We not only enhance data-driven trading strategies but also provides a scalable, high-fidelity synthetic financial data pipeline for risk & volatility management and investment decision-making. This work establishes a bridge between synthetic data generation, LLM driven financial forecasting, and language model evaluation, contributing to AI-driven financial decision-making.

This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality news sources, a supervisor agent that reconciles disparate forecasts for the same event, and a set of statistical calibration techniques to counter behavioral biases in large language models. On the ForecastBench benchmark (Karger et al., 2024), the AIA Forecaster achieves performance equal to human superforecasters, surpassing prior LLM baselines. In addition to reporting on ForecastBench, we also introduce a more challenging forecasting benchmark sourced from liquid prediction markets. While the AIA Forecaster underperforms market consensus on this benchmark, an ensemble combining AIA Forecaster with market consensus outperforms consensus alone, demonstrating that our forecaster provides additive information. Our work establishes a new state of the art in AI forecasting and provides practical, transferable recommendations for future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that verifiably achieves expert-level forecasting at scale.

This paper studies attack detection for discrete-time linear systems with stochastic process noise that produce both a vulnerable (i.e., attackable) linear measurement and a secured (i.e., unattackable) quadratic measurement. The motivating application of this model is a dynamic-game setting where the quadratic measurement is interpreted as a system-level utility or reward, and control inputs into the linear system are interpreted as control policies that, once applied, are known to all game participants and which steer the system towards a game-theoretic equilibrium (e.g., Nash equilibrium). To detect attacks on the linear channel, we develop a novel quadratic-utility-aware observer that leverages the secured quadratic output and enforces measurement consistency via a projection step. We establish three properties for this observer: feasibility of the true state, prox-regularity of the quadratic-constraint set, and a monotone error-reduction guarantee in the noise-free case. To detect adversarial manipulation, we compare linear and quadratic observer trajectories using a wild bootstrap maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) test that provides valid inference under temporal dependence. We validate our framework using numerical experiments of a pursuit-evasion game, where the quadratic observer preserves estimation accuracy under linear-sensor attacks, while the statistical test detects distributional divergence between the observers' trajectories.

Hybrid methods have been shown to outperform pure statistical and pure deep learning methods at forecasting tasks and quantifying the associated uncertainty with those forecasts (prediction intervals). One example is Exponential Smoothing Recurrent Neural Network (ES-RNN), a hybrid between a statistical forecasting model and a recurrent neural network variant. ES-RNN achieves a 9.4\% improvement in absolute error in the Makridakis-4 Forecasting Competition. This improvement and similar outperformance from other hybrid models have primarily been demonstrated only on univariate datasets. Difficulties with applying hybrid forecast methods to multivariate data include (i) the high computational cost involved in hyperparameter tuning for models that are not parsimonious, (ii) challenges associated with auto-correlation inherent in the data, as well as (iii) complex dependency (cross-correlation) between the covariates that may be hard to capture. This paper presents Multivariate Exponential Smoothing Long Short Term Memory (MES-LSTM), a generalized multivariate extension to ES-RNN, that overcomes these challenges. MES-LSTM utilizes a vectorized implementation. We test MES-LSTM on several aggregated coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity datasets and find our hybrid approach shows consistent, significant improvement over pure statistical and deep learning methods at forecast accuracy and prediction interval construction.

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

The Scielo database is an important source of scientific information in Latin America, containing articles from several research domains. A striking characteristic of Scielo is that many of its full-text contents are presented in more than one language, thus being a potential source of parallel corpora. In this article, we present the development of a parallel corpus from Scielo in three languages: English, Portuguese, and Spanish. Sentences were automatically aligned using the Hunalign algorithm for all language pairs, and for a subset of trilingual articles also. We demonstrate the capabilities of our corpus by training a Statistical Machine Translation system (Moses) for each language pair, which outperformed related works on scientific articles. Sentence alignment was also manually evaluated, presenting an average of 98.8% correctly aligned sentences across all languages. Our parallel corpus is freely available in the TMX format, with complementary information regarding article metadata.

The work focuses on gathering high-fidelity and low-fidelity numerical simulations data using Nektar++ (Solver based on Applied Mathematics) and XFOIL respectively. The utilization of the higher polynomial distribution in calculating the Coefficient of lift and drag has demonstrated superior accuracy and precision. Further, Co-kriging Data fusion and Adaptive sampling technique has been used to obtain the precise data predictions for the lift and drag within the confined domain without conducting the costly simulations on HPC clusters. This creates a methodology to quantifying uncertainty in computational fluid dynamics by minimizing the required number of samples. To minimize the reliability on high-fidelity numerical simulations in Uncertainty Quantification, a multi-fidelity strategy has been adopted. The effectiveness of the multi-fidelity deep neural network model has been validated through the approximation of benchmark functions across 1-, 32-, and 100-dimensional, encompassing both linear and nonlinear correlations. The surrogate modelling results showed that multi-fidelity deep neural network model has shown excellent approximation capabilities for the test functions and multi-fidelity deep neural network method has outperformed Co-kriging in effectiveness. In addition to that, multi-fidelity deep neural network model is utilized for the simulation of aleatory uncertainty propagation in 1-, 32-, and 100 dimensional function test, considering both uniform and Gaussian distributions for input uncertainties. The results have shown that multi-fidelity deep neural network model has efficiently predicted the probability density distributions of quantities of interest as well as the statistical moments with precision and accuracy. The Co-Kriging model has exhibited limitations when addressing 32-Dimension problems due to the limitation of memory capacity for storage and manipulation.

In this paper, we study semantic role labelling (SRL), a subtask of semantic parsing of natural language sentences and its application for the Vietnamese language. We present our effort in building Vietnamese PropBank, the first Vietnamese SRL corpus and a software system for labelling semantic roles of Vietnamese texts. In particular, we present a novel constituent extraction algorithm in the argument candidate identification step which is more suitable and more accurate than the common node-mapping method. In the machine learning part, our system integrates distributed word features produced by two recent unsupervised learning models in two learned statistical classifiers and makes use of integer linear programming inference procedure to improve the accuracy. The system is evaluated in a series of experiments and achieves a good result, an F_1 score of 74.77%. Our system, including corpus and software, is available as an open source project for free research and we believe that it is a good baseline for the development of future Vietnamese SRL systems.

Weight oscillation is an undesirable side effect of quantization-aware training, in which quantized weights frequently jump between two quantized levels, resulting in training instability and a sub-optimal final model. We discover that the learnable scaling factor, a widely-used de facto setting in quantization aggravates weight oscillation. In this study, we investigate the connection between the learnable scaling factor and quantized weight oscillation and use ViT as a case driver to illustrate the findings and remedies. In addition, we also found that the interdependence between quantized weights in query and key of a self-attention layer makes ViT vulnerable to oscillation. We, therefore, propose three techniques accordingly: statistical weight quantization (rm StatsQ) to improve quantization robustness compared to the prevalent learnable-scale-based method; confidence-guided annealing (rm CGA) that freezes the weights with high confidence and calms the oscillating weights; and query-key reparameterization (rm QKR) to resolve the query-key intertwined oscillation and mitigate the resulting gradient misestimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these proposed techniques successfully abate weight oscillation and consistently achieve substantial accuracy improvement on ImageNet. Specifically, our 2-bit DeiT-T/DeiT-S algorithms outperform the previous state-of-the-art by 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/nbasyl/OFQ.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

We propose a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy. The test covers 57 tasks including elementary mathematics, US history, computer science, law, and more. To attain high accuracy on this test, models must possess extensive world knowledge and problem solving ability. We find that while most recent models have near random-chance accuracy, the very largest GPT-3 model improves over random chance by almost 20 percentage points on average. However, on every one of the 57 tasks, the best models still need substantial improvements before they can reach expert-level accuracy. Models also have lopsided performance and frequently do not know when they are wrong. Worse, they still have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law. By comprehensively evaluating the breadth and depth of a model's academic and professional understanding, our test can be used to analyze models across many tasks and to identify important shortcomings.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Offline evaluation of search systems depends on test collections. These benchmarks provide the researchers with a corpus of documents, topics and relevance judgements indicating which documents are relevant for each topic. While test collections are an integral part of Information Retrieval (IR) research, their creation involves significant efforts in manual annotation. Large language models (LLMs) are gaining much attention as tools for automatic relevance assessment. Recent research has shown that LLM-based assessments yield high systems ranking correlation with human-made judgements. These correlations are helpful in large-scale experiments but less informative if we want to focus on top-performing systems. Moreover, these correlations ignore whether and how LLM-based judgements impact the statistically significant differences among systems with respect to human assessments. In this work, we look at how LLM-generated judgements preserve ranking differences among top-performing systems and also how they preserve pairwise significance evaluation as human judgements. Our results show that LLM-based judgements are unfair at ranking top-performing systems. Moreover, we observe an exceedingly high rate of false positives regarding statistical differences. Our work represents a step forward in the evaluation of the reliability of using LLMs-based judgements for IR evaluation. We hope this will serve as a basis for other researchers to develop more reliable models for automatic relevance assessment.

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing is the de facto tool for assessing effectiveness differences between Information Retrieval systems. Researchers use statistical tests to check whether those differences will generalise to online settings or are just due to the samples observed in the laboratory. Much work has been devoted to studying which test is the most reliable when comparing a pair of systems, but most of the IR real-world experiments involve more than two. In the multiple comparisons scenario, testing several systems simultaneously may inflate the errors committed by the tests. In this paper, we use a new approach to assess the reliability of multiple comparison procedures using simulated and real TREC data. Experiments show that Wilcoxon plus the Benjamini-Hochberg correction yields Type I error rates according to the significance level for typical sample sizes while being the best test in terms of statistical power.

Many people are interested in ChatGPT since it has become a prominent AIGC model that provides high-quality responses in various contexts, such as software development and maintenance. Misuse of ChatGPT might cause significant issues, particularly in public safety and education, despite its immense potential. The majority of researchers choose to publish their work on Arxiv. The effectiveness and originality of future work depend on the ability to detect AI components in such contributions. To address this need, this study will analyze a method that can see purposely manufactured content that academic organizations use to post on Arxiv. For this study, a dataset was created using physics, mathematics, and computer science articles. Using the newly built dataset, the following step is to put originality.ai through its paces. The statistical analysis shows that Originality.ai is very accurate, with a rate of 98%.

While there are numerous benchmarks comparing the performance of modern language models (LMs), end-task evaluations often conflate notions of *factual accuracy* ("truth") and *reasoning ability* ("rationality", or "honesty" in the sense of correctly reporting implications of beliefs). Our goal is a dataset that clearly distinguishes these two notions. Our approach is to leverage and extend a collection of human-annotated *entailment trees*, engineered to express both good and bad chains of reasoning, and using a mixture of true and false facts, in particular including counterfactual examples, to avoid belief bias (also known as the "content effect"). The resulting dataset, called BaRDa, contains 3000 entailments (1787 valid, 1213 invalid), using 6681 true and 2319 false statements. Testing on four GPT-series models, GPT3(curie)/GPT3(davinici)/3.5/4, we find factual accuracy (truth) scores of 74.1/80.6/82.6/87.1 and reasoning accuracy scores of 63.1/78.0/71.8/79.2. This shows the clear progression of models towards improved factual accuracy and entailment reasoning, and the dataset provides a new benchmark that more cleanly separates and quantifies these two notions.

Commonly used evaluation measures including Recall, Precision, F-Measure and Rand Accuracy are biased and should not be used without clear understanding of the biases, and corresponding identification of chance or base case levels of the statistic. Using these measures a system that performs worse in the objective sense of Informedness, can appear to perform better under any of these commonly used measures. We discuss several concepts and measures that reflect the probability that prediction is informed versus chance. Informedness and introduce Markedness as a dual measure for the probability that prediction is marked versus chance. Finally we demonstrate elegant connections between the concepts of Informedness, Markedness, Correlation and Significance as well as their intuitive relationships with Recall and Precision, and outline the extension from the dichotomous case to the general multi-class case.

Consistently checking the statistical significance of experimental results is one of the mandatory methodological steps to address the so-called "reproducibility crisis" in deep reinforcement learning. In this tutorial paper, we explain how the number of random seeds relates to the probabilities of statistical errors. For both the t-test and the bootstrap confidence interval test, we recall theoretical guidelines to determine the number of random seeds one should use to provide a statistically significant comparison of the performance of two algorithms. Finally, we discuss the influence of deviations from the assumptions usually made by statistical tests. We show that they can lead to inaccurate evaluations of statistical errors and provide guidelines to counter these negative effects. We make our code available to perform the tests.

In this paper we introduce a new publicly available dataset for verification against textual sources, FEVER: Fact Extraction and VERification. It consists of 185,445 claims generated by altering sentences extracted from Wikipedia and subsequently verified without knowledge of the sentence they were derived from. The claims are classified as Supported, Refuted or NotEnoughInfo by annotators achieving 0.6841 in Fleiss kappa. For the first two classes, the annotators also recorded the sentence(s) forming the necessary evidence for their judgment. To characterize the challenge of the dataset presented, we develop a pipeline approach and compare it to suitably designed oracles. The best accuracy we achieve on labeling a claim accompanied by the correct evidence is 31.87%, while if we ignore the evidence we achieve 50.91%. Thus we believe that FEVER is a challenging testbed that will help stimulate progress on claim verification against textual sources.

Neural networks -- especially those that use large, pre-trained language models -- have improved search engines in various ways. Most prominently, they can estimate the relevance of a passage or document to a user's query. In this work, we depart from this direction by exploring whether neural networks can effectively predict which of a document's passages are unlikely to be relevant to any query submitted to the search engine. We refer to this query-agnostic estimation of passage relevance as a passage's quality. We find that our novel methods for estimating passage quality allow passage corpora to be pruned considerably while maintaining statistically equivalent effectiveness; our best methods can consistently prune >25% of passages in a corpora, across various retrieval pipelines. Such substantial pruning reduces the operating costs of neural search engines in terms of computing resources, power usage, and carbon footprint -- both when processing queries (thanks to a smaller index size) and when indexing (lightweight models can prune low-quality passages prior to the costly dense or learned sparse encoding step). This work sets the stage for developing more advanced neural "learning-what-to-index" methods.

Despite its crucial role in research experiments, code correctness is often presumed only on the basis of the perceived quality of results. This assumption comes with the risk of erroneous outcomes and potentially misleading findings. To address this issue, we posit that the current focus on reproducibility should go hand in hand with the emphasis on software quality. We present a case study in which we identify and fix three bugs in widely used implementations of the state-of-the-art Conformer architecture. Through experiments on speech recognition and translation in various languages, we demonstrate that the presence of bugs does not prevent the achievement of good and reproducible results, which however can lead to incorrect conclusions that potentially misguide future research. As a countermeasure, we propose a Code-quality Checklist and release pangoliNN, a library dedicated to testing neural models, with the goal of promoting coding best practices and improving research software quality within the NLP community.

This paper describes our 3^{rd} place submission in the AVeriTeC shared task in which we attempted to address the challenge of fact-checking with evidence retrieved in the wild using a simple scheme of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) designed for the task, leveraging the predictive power of Large Language Models. We release our codebase and explain its two modules - the Retriever and the Evidence & Label generator - in detail, justifying their features such as MMR-reranking and Likert-scale confidence estimation. We evaluate our solution on AVeriTeC dev and test set and interpret the results, picking the GPT-4o as the most appropriate model for our pipeline at the time of our publication, with Llama 3.1 70B being a promising open-source alternative. We perform an empirical error analysis to see that faults in our predictions often coincide with noise in the data or ambiguous fact-checks, provoking further research and data augmentation.

Machine learning methods have proven useful in transcribing historical data. However, results from even highly accurate methods require manual verification and correction. Such manual review can be time-consuming and expensive, therefore the objective of this paper was to make it more efficient. Previously, we used machine learning to transcribe 2.3 million handwritten occupation codes from the Norwegian 1950 census with high accuracy (97%). We manually reviewed the 90,000 (3%) codes with the lowest model confidence. We allocated those 90,000 codes to human reviewers, who used our annotation tool to review the codes. To assess reviewer agreement, some codes were assigned to multiple reviewers. We then analyzed the review results to understand the relationship between accuracy improvements and effort. Additionally, we interviewed the reviewers to improve the workflow. The reviewers corrected 62.8% of the labels and agreed with the model label in 31.9% of cases. About 0.2% of the images could not be assigned a label, while for 5.1% the reviewers were uncertain, or they assigned an invalid label. 9,000 images were independently reviewed by multiple reviewers, resulting in an agreement of 86.43% and disagreement of 8.96%. We learned that our automatic transcription is biased towards the most frequent codes, with a higher degree of misclassification for the lowest frequency codes. Our interview findings show that the reviewers did internal quality control and found our custom tool well-suited. So, only one reviewer is needed, but they should report uncertainty.

We introduce WIQA, the first large-scale dataset of "What if..." questions over procedural text. WIQA contains three parts: a collection of paragraphs each describing a process, e.g., beach erosion; a set of crowdsourced influence graphs for each paragraph, describing how one change affects another; and a large (40k) collection of "What if...?" multiple-choice questions derived from the graphs. For example, given a paragraph about beach erosion, would stormy weather result in more or less erosion (or have no effect)? The task is to answer the questions, given their associated paragraph. WIQA contains three kinds of questions: perturbations to steps mentioned in the paragraph; external (out-of-paragraph) perturbations requiring commonsense knowledge; and irrelevant (no effect) perturbations. We find that state-of-the-art models achieve 73.8% accuracy, well below the human performance of 96.3%. We analyze the challenges, in particular tracking chains of influences, and present the dataset as an open challenge to the community.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Benchmarks are pivotal in driving AI progress, and invalid benchmark questions frequently undermine their reliability. Manually identifying and correcting errors among thousands of benchmark questions is not only infeasible but also a critical bottleneck for reliable evaluation. In this work, we introduce a framework for systematic benchmark revision that leverages statistical analysis of response patterns to flag potentially invalid questions for further expert review. Our approach builds on a core assumption commonly used in AI evaluations that the mean score sufficiently summarizes model performance. This implies a unidimensional latent construct underlying the measurement experiment, yielding expected ranges for various statistics for each item. When empirically estimated values for these statistics fall outside the expected range for an item, the item is more likely to be problematic. Across nine widely used benchmarks, our method guides expert review to identify problematic questions with up to 84\% precision. In addition, we introduce an LLM-judge first pass to review questions, further reducing human effort. Together, these components provide an efficient and scalable framework for systematic benchmark revision.

Creating test collections for offline retrieval evaluation requires human effort to judge documents' relevance. This expensive activity motivated much work in developing methods for constructing benchmarks with fewer assessment costs. In this respect, adjudication methods actively decide both which documents and the order in which experts review them, in order to better exploit the assessment budget or to lower it. Researchers evaluate the quality of those methods by measuring the correlation between the known gold ranking of systems under the full collection and the observed ranking of systems under the lower-cost one. This traditional analysis ignores whether and how the low-cost judgements impact on the statistically significant differences among systems with respect to the full collection. We fill this void by proposing a novel methodology to evaluate how the low-cost adjudication methods preserve the pairwise significant differences between systems as the full collection. In other terms, while traditional approaches look for stability in answering the question "is system A better than system B?", our proposed approach looks for stability in answering the question "is system A significantly better than system B?", which is the ultimate questions researchers need to answer to guarantee the generalisability of their results. Among other results, we found that the best methods in terms of ranking of systems correlation do not always match those preserving statistical significance.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Recently, reading comprehension models achieved near-human performance on large-scale datasets such as SQuAD, CoQA, MS Macro, RACE, etc. This is largely due to the release of pre-trained contextualized representations such as BERT and ELMo, which can be fine-tuned for the target task. Despite those advances and the creation of more challenging datasets, most of the work is still done for English. Here, we study the effectiveness of multilingual BERT fine-tuned on large-scale English datasets for reading comprehension (e.g., for RACE), and we apply it to Bulgarian multiple-choice reading comprehension. We propose a new dataset containing 2,221 questions from matriculation exams for twelfth grade in various subjects -history, biology, geography and philosophy-, and 412 additional questions from online quizzes in history. While the quiz authors gave no relevant context, we incorporate knowledge from Wikipedia, retrieving documents matching the combination of question + each answer option. Moreover, we experiment with different indexing and pre-training strategies. The evaluation results show accuracy of 42.23%, which is well above the baseline of 24.89%.

We have tried to reproduce the results of the paper "Natural Language Inference over Interaction Space" submitted to ICLR 2018 conference as part of the ICLR 2018 Reproducibility Challenge. Initially, we were not aware that the code was available, so we started to implement the network from scratch. We have evaluated our version of the model on Stanford NLI dataset and reached 86.38% accuracy on the test set, while the paper claims 88.0% accuracy. The main difference, as we understand it, comes from the optimizers and the way model selection is performed.

AI chatbots are rapidly shaping how people encounter the news, yet no prior study has systematically measured how accurately these systems, with their proprietary search integrations and retrieval-synthesis pipelines, handle emerging facts across languages and regions. We present a 14-day (February 9-22, 2026) evaluation of six AI chatbots (Gemini 3 Flash and Pro, Grok 4, Claude 4.5 Sonnet, GPT-5 and GPT-4o mini) on 2,100 factual questions derived from same-day BBC News reporting across six regional services (US & Canada, Arabic, Afrique, Hindi, Russian, Turkish). The best systems achieve over 90% multiple-choice accuracy on questions about events reported hours earlier. The same systems, however, lose 11-13% under free-response evaluation, and 16-17% across the cohort. We further characterize three failure patterns. First, every model achieves its lowest accuracy on Hindi (79% vs. 89-91% elsewhere) and citations indicate an Anglophone retrieval bias (e.g., models answering Hindi queries cite English Wikipedia more than any Hindi outlet). Second, retrieval, not reasoning, failures drive over 70% of all errors. When models retrieve a correct source, they often extract the correct answer; the problem is to land on the right source in the first place. Third, models achieving 88-96% accuracy on well-formed questions drop to 19-70% when questions contain subtle false premises, with the most vulnerable model accepting fabricated facts 64% of the time. We also identify a detection-accuracy paradox: the best false-premise detector ranks second in adversarial accuracy (abstention rate), while a weaker detector ranks first, showing that premise detection and answer recovery are partially independent capabilities. Overall, these suggest that high accuracy can mask systematic regional inequity, near-total dependence on retrieval infrastructure, and vulnerability to imperfect queries real users pose.

Academic citations are widely used for evaluating research and tracing knowledge flows. Such uses typically rely on raw citation counts and neglect variability in citation types. In particular, citations can vary in their fidelity as original knowledge from cited studies may be paraphrased, summarized, or reinterpreted, possibly wrongly, leading to variation in how much information changes from cited to citing paper. In this study, we introduce a computational pipeline to quantify citation fidelity at scale. Using full texts of papers, the pipeline identifies citations in citing papers and the corresponding claims in cited papers, and applies supervised models to measure fidelity at the sentence level. Analyzing a large-scale multi-disciplinary dataset of approximately 13 million citation sentence pairs, we find that citation fidelity is higher when authors cite papers that are 1) more recent and intellectually close, 2) more accessible, and 3) the first author has a lower H-index and the author team is medium-sized. Using a quasi-experiment, we establish the "telephone effect" - when citing papers have low fidelity to the original claim, future papers that cite the citing paper and the original have lower fidelity to the original. Our work reveals systematic differences in citation fidelity, underscoring the limitations of analyses that rely on citation quantity alone and the potential for distortion of evidence.

Is there a statistical difference between Naive Bayes and Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision for predicting software defects? By utilizing systematic literature review and meta-analysis, we are answering this question. We conducted a systematic literature review by establishing criteria to search and choose papers, resulting in five studies. After that, using the meta-data and forest-plots of five chosen papers, we conducted a meta-analysis to compare the two models. The results have shown that there is no significant statistical evidence that Naive Bayes perform differently from Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision.

Researchers have found that fake news spreads much times faster than real news. This is a major problem, especially in today's world where social media is the key source of news for many among the younger population. Fact verification, thus, becomes an important task and many media sites contribute to the cause. Manual fact verification is a tedious task, given the volume of fake news online. The Factify5WQA shared task aims to increase research towards automated fake news detection by providing a dataset with an aspect-based question answering based fact verification method. Each claim and its supporting document is associated with 5W questions that help compare the two information sources. The objective performance measure in the task is done by comparing answers using BLEU score to measure the accuracy of the answers, followed by an accuracy measure of the classification. The task had submissions using custom training setup and pre-trained language-models among others. The best performing team posted an accuracy of 69.56%, which is a near 35% improvement over the baseline.

Finding relevant literature underpins the practice of evidence-based medicine. From 2014 to 2016, TREC conducted a clinical decision support track, wherein participants were tasked with finding articles relevant to clinical questions posed by physicians. In total, 87 teams have participated over the past three years, generating 395 runs. During this period, each team has trialled a variety of methods. While there was significant overlap in the methods employed by different teams, the results were varied. Due to the diversity of the platforms used, the results arising from the different techniques are not directly comparable, reducing the ability to build on previous work. By using a stable platform, we have been able to compare different document and query processing techniques, allowing us to experiment with different search parameters. We have used our system to reproduce leading teams runs, and compare the results obtained. By benchmarking our indexing and search techniques, we can statistically test a variety of hypotheses, paving the way for further research.

Evaluation efforts such as TREC, CLEF, NTCIR and FIRE, alongside public leaderboard such as MS MARCO, are intended to encourage research and track our progress, addressing big questions in our field. However, the goal is not simply to identify which run is "best", achieving the top score. The goal is to move the field forward by developing new robust techniques, that work in many different settings, and are adopted in research and practice. This paper uses the MS MARCO and TREC Deep Learning Track as our case study, comparing it to the case of TREC ad hoc ranking in the 1990s. We show how the design of the evaluation effort can encourage or discourage certain outcomes, and raising questions about internal and external validity of results. We provide some analysis of certain pitfalls, and a statement of best practices for avoiding such pitfalls. We summarize the progress of the effort so far, and describe our desired end state of "robust usefulness", along with steps that might be required to get us there.

Retrieval-augmented language models are being increasingly tasked with subjective, contentious, and conflicting queries such as "is aspartame linked to cancer". To resolve these ambiguous queries, one must search through a large range of websites and consider "which, if any, of this evidence do I find convincing?". In this work, we study how LLMs answer this question. In particular, we construct ConflictingQA, a dataset that pairs controversial queries with a series of real-world evidence documents that contain different facts (e.g., quantitative results), argument styles (e.g., appeals to authority), and answers (Yes or No). We use this dataset to perform sensitivity and counterfactual analyses to explore which text features most affect LLM predictions. Overall, we find that current models rely heavily on the relevance of a website to the query, while largely ignoring stylistic features that humans find important such as whether a text contains scientific references or is written with a neutral tone. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of RAG corpus quality (e.g., the need to filter misinformation), and possibly even a shift in how LLMs are trained to better align with human judgements.

With the growing importance of detecting misinformation, many studies have focused on verifying factual claims by retrieving evidence. However, canonical fact verification tasks do not apply to catching subtle differences in factually consistent claims, which might still bias the readers, especially on contentious political or economic issues. Our underlying assumption is that among the trusted sources, one's argument is not necessarily more true than the other, requiring comparison rather than verification. In this study, we propose ClaimDiff, a novel dataset that primarily focuses on comparing the nuance between claim pairs. In ClaimDiff, we provide 2,941 annotated claim pairs from 268 news articles. We observe that while humans are capable of detecting the nuances between claims, strong baselines struggle to detect them, showing over a 19% absolute gap with the humans. We hope this initial study could help readers to gain an unbiased grasp of contentious issues through machine-aided comparison.

Software is used in critical applications in our day-to-day life and it is important to ensure its correctness. One popular approach to assess correctness is to evaluate software on tests. If a test fails, it indicates a fault in the software under test; if all tests pass correctly, one may assume that the software is correct. However, the reliability of these results depends on the test suite considered, and there is a risk of false negatives (i.e. software that passes all available tests but contains bugs because some cases are not tested). Therefore, it is important to consider error-inducing test cases when evaluating software. To support data-driven creation of such a test-suite, which is especially of interest for testing software synthesized from large language models, we curate a dataset (Codehacks) of programming problems together with corresponding error-inducing test cases (i.e., "hacks"). This dataset is collected from the wild, in particular, from the Codeforces online judge platform. The dataset comprises 288,617 hacks for 5,578 programming problems, each with a natural language description, as well as the source code for 2,196 submitted solutions to these problems that can be broken with their corresponding hacks. Keywords: competitive programming, language model, dataset

LLMs are highly sensitive to prompt phrasing, yet standard benchmarks typically report performance using a single prompt, raising concerns about the reliability of such evaluations. In this work, we argue for a stochastic method of moments evaluation over the space of meaning-preserving prompt perturbations. We introduce a formal definition of reliable evaluation that accounts for prompt sensitivity, and suggest ReliableEval - a method for estimating the number of prompt resamplings needed to obtain meaningful results. Using our framework, we stochastically evaluate five frontier LLMs and find that even top-performing models like GPT-4o and Claude-3.7-Sonnet exhibit substantial prompt sensitivity. Our approach is model-, task-, and metric-agnostic, offering a recipe for meaningful and robust LLM evaluation.

Generative search engines directly generate responses to user queries, along with in-line citations. A prerequisite trait of a trustworthy generative search engine is verifiability, i.e., systems should cite comprehensively (high citation recall; all statements are fully supported by citations) and accurately (high citation precision; every cite supports its associated statement). We conduct human evaluation to audit four popular generative search engines -- Bing Chat, NeevaAI, perplexity.ai, and YouChat -- across a diverse set of queries from a variety of sources (e.g., historical Google user queries, dynamically-collected open-ended questions on Reddit, etc.). We find that responses from existing generative search engines are fluent and appear informative, but frequently contain unsupported statements and inaccurate citations: on average, a mere 51.5% of generated sentences are fully supported by citations and only 74.5% of citations support their associated sentence. We believe that these results are concerningly low for systems that may serve as a primary tool for information-seeking users, especially given their facade of trustworthiness. We hope that our results further motivate the development of trustworthy generative search engines and help researchers and users better understand the shortcomings of existing commercial systems.

We present the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD), a new reading comprehension dataset consisting of 100,000+ questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to each question is a segment of text from the corresponding reading passage. We analyze the dataset to understand the types of reasoning required to answer the questions, leaning heavily on dependency and constituency trees. We build a strong logistic regression model, which achieves an F1 score of 51.0%, a significant improvement over a simple baseline (20%). However, human performance (86.8%) is much higher, indicating that the dataset presents a good challenge problem for future research. The dataset is freely available at https://stanford-qa.com

In domains with high stakes such as law, recruitment, and healthcare, learning models frequently rely on sensitive user data for inference, necessitating the complete set of features. This not only poses significant privacy risks for individuals but also demands substantial human effort from organizations to verify information accuracy. This paper asks whether it is necessary to use all input features for accurate predictions at inference time. The paper demonstrates that, in a personalized setting, individuals may only need to disclose a small subset of their features without compromising decision-making accuracy. The paper also provides an efficient sequential algorithm to determine the appropriate attributes for each individual to provide. Evaluations across various learning tasks show that individuals can potentially report as little as 10\% of their information while maintaining the same accuracy level as a model that employs the full set of user information.

Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in their favour. As sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry in the USA alone, identifying such opportunities could be extremely lucrative. Many researchers have applied machine learning to the sports outcome prediction problem, generally using accuracy to evaluate the performance of predictive models. We hypothesise that for the sports betting problem, model calibration is more important than accuracy. To test this hypothesis, we train models on NBA data over several seasons and run betting experiments on a single season, using published odds. We show that using calibration, rather than accuracy, as the basis for model selection leads to greater returns, on average (return on investment of +34.69% versus -35.17%) and in the best case (+36.93% versus +5.56%). These findings suggest that for sports betting (or any probabilistic decision-making problem), calibration is a more important metric than accuracy. Sports bettors who wish to increase profits should therefore select their predictive model based on calibration, rather than accuracy.

We fine-tune GPT-3 to answer long-form questions using a text-based web-browsing environment, which allows the model to search and navigate the web. By setting up the task so that it can be performed by humans, we are able to train models on the task using imitation learning, and then optimize answer quality with human feedback. To make human evaluation of factual accuracy easier, models must collect references while browsing in support of their answers. We train and evaluate our models on ELI5, a dataset of questions asked by Reddit users. Our best model is obtained by fine-tuning GPT-3 using behavior cloning, and then performing rejection sampling against a reward model trained to predict human preferences. This model's answers are preferred by humans 56% of the time to those of our human demonstrators, and 69% of the time to the highest-voted answer from Reddit.

The increasing reliance on AI-driven solutions, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) like the GPT series, for information retrieval highlights the critical need for their factuality and fairness, especially amidst the rampant spread of misinformation and disinformation online. Our study evaluates the factual accuracy, stability, and biases in widely adopted GPT models, including GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, contributing to reliability and integrity of AI-mediated information dissemination. We introduce 'Global-Liar,' a dataset uniquely balanced in terms of geographic and temporal representation, facilitating a more nuanced evaluation of LLM biases. Our analysis reveals that newer iterations of GPT models do not always equate to improved performance. Notably, the GPT-4 version from March demonstrates higher factual accuracy than its subsequent June release. Furthermore, a concerning bias is observed, privileging statements from the Global North over the Global South, thus potentially exacerbating existing informational inequities. Regions such as Africa and the Middle East are at a disadvantage, with much lower factual accuracy. The performance fluctuations over time suggest that model updates may not consistently benefit all regions equally. Our study also offers insights into the impact of various LLM configuration settings, such as binary decision forcing, model re-runs and temperature, on model's factuality. Models constrained to binary (true/false) choices exhibit reduced factuality compared to those allowing an 'unclear' option. Single inference at a low temperature setting matches the reliability of majority voting across various configurations. The insights gained highlight the need for culturally diverse and geographically inclusive model training and evaluation. This approach is key to achieving global equity in technology, distributing AI benefits fairly worldwide.

We introduce a corpus of 7,032 sentences rated by human annotators for formality, informativeness, and implicature on a 1-7 scale. The corpus was annotated using Amazon Mechanical Turk. Reliability in the obtained judgments was examined by comparing mean ratings across two MTurk experiments, and correlation with pilot annotations (on sentence formality) conducted in a more controlled setting. Despite the subjectivity and inherent difficulty of the annotation task, correlations between mean ratings were quite encouraging, especially on formality and informativeness. We further explored correlation between the three linguistic variables, genre-wise variation of ratings and correlations within genres, compatibility with automatic stylistic scoring, and sentential make-up of a document in terms of style. To date, our corpus is the largest sentence-level annotated corpus released for formality, informativeness, and implicature.

Context: Code reviews are crucial for software quality. Recent AI advances have allowed large language models (LLMs) to review and fix code; now, there are tools that perform these reviews. However, their reliability and accuracy have not yet been systematically evaluated. Objective: This study compares different LLMs' performance in detecting code correctness and suggesting improvements. Method: We tested GPT4o and Gemini 2.0 Flash on 492 AI generated code blocks of varying correctness, along with 164 canonical code blocks from the HumanEval benchmark. To simulate the code review task objectively, we expected LLMs to assess code correctness and improve the code if needed. We ran experiments with different configurations and reported on the results. Results: With problem descriptions, GPT4o and Gemini 2.0 Flash correctly classified code correctness 68.50% and 63.89% of the time, respectively, and corrected the code 67.83% and 54.26% of the time for the 492 code blocks of varying correctness. Without problem descriptions, performance declined. The results for the 164 canonical code blocks differed, suggesting that performance depends on the type of code. Conclusion: LLM code reviews can help suggest improvements and assess correctness, but there is a risk of faulty outputs. We propose a process that involves humans, called the "Human in the loop LLM Code Review" to promote knowledge sharing while mitigating the risk of faulty outputs.

Retrieval models are often evaluated on partially-annotated datasets. Each query is mapped to a few relevant texts and the remaining corpus is assumed to be irrelevant. As a result, models that successfully retrieve false negatives are punished in evaluation. Unfortunately, completely annotating all texts for every query is not resource efficient. In this work, we show that using partially-annotated datasets in evaluation can paint a distorted picture. We curate D-MERIT, a passage retrieval evaluation set from Wikipedia, aspiring to contain all relevant passages for each query. Queries describe a group (e.g., ``journals about linguistics'') and relevant passages are evidence that entities belong to the group (e.g., a passage indicating that Language is a journal about linguistics). We show that evaluating on a dataset containing annotations for only a subset of the relevant passages might result in misleading ranking of the retrieval systems and that as more relevant texts are included in the evaluation set, the rankings converge. We propose our dataset as a resource for evaluation and our study as a recommendation for balance between resource-efficiency and reliable evaluation when annotating evaluation sets for text retrieval.