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Oct 20

AQuA: Toward Strategic Response Generation for Ambiguous Visual Questions

Visual Question Answering (VQA) is a core task for evaluating the capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs). Existing VQA benchmarks primarily feature clear and unambiguous image-question pairs, whereas real-world scenarios often involve varying degrees of ambiguity that require nuanced reasoning and context-appropriate response strategies. Although recent studies have begun to address ambiguity in VQA, they lack (1) a systematic categorization of ambiguity levels and (2) datasets and models that support strategy-aware responses. In this paper, we introduce Ambiguous Visual Question Answering (AQuA), a fine-grained dataset that classifies ambiguous VQA instances into four levels according to the nature and degree of ambiguity, along with the optimal response strategy for each case. Our evaluation of diverse open-source and proprietary VLMs shows that most models fail to adapt their strategy to the ambiguity type, frequently producing overconfident answers rather than seeking clarification or acknowledging uncertainty. To address this challenge, we fine-tune VLMs on AQuA, enabling them to adaptively choose among multiple response strategies, such as directly answering, inferring intent from contextual cues, listing plausible alternatives, or requesting clarification. VLMs trained on AQuA achieve strategic response generation for ambiguous VQA, demonstrating the ability to recognize ambiguity, manage uncertainty, and respond with context-appropriate strategies, while outperforming both open-source and closed-source baselines.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 7

Ask-to-Clarify: Resolving Instruction Ambiguity through Multi-turn Dialogue

The ultimate goal of embodied agents is to create collaborators that can interact with humans, not mere executors that passively follow instructions. This requires agents to communicate, coordinate, and adapt their actions based on human feedback. Recently, advances in VLAs have offered a path toward this goal. However, most current VLA-based embodied agents operate in a one-way mode: they receive an instruction and execute it without feedback. This approach fails in real-world scenarios where instructions are often ambiguous. In this paper, we address this problem with the Ask-to-Clarify framework. Our framework first resolves ambiguous instructions by asking questions in a multi-turn dialogue. Then it generates low-level actions end-to-end. Specifically, the Ask-to-Clarify framework consists of two components, one VLM for collaboration and one diffusion for action. We also introduce a connection module that generates conditions for the diffusion based on the output of the VLM. This module adjusts the observation by instructions to create reliable conditions. We train our framework with a two-stage knowledge-insulation strategy. First, we fine-tune the collaboration component using ambiguity-solving dialogue data to handle ambiguity. Then, we integrate the action component while freezing the collaboration one. This preserves the interaction abilities while fine-tuning the diffusion to generate actions. The training strategy guarantees our framework can first ask questions, then generate actions. During inference, a signal detector functions as a router that helps our framework switch between asking questions and taking actions. We evaluate the Ask-to-Clarify framework in 8 real-world tasks, where it outperforms existing state-of-the-art VLAs. The results suggest that our proposed framework, along with the training strategy, provides a path toward collaborative embodied agents.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 18, 2025 3

ReRound: Reconstructive Rounding to Resolve Midpoint Ambiguity in Calibration-Free LLM Quantization

ReRound (Reconstructive Rounding) is a post-training quantization method that addresses the midpoint ambiguity inherent in standard round-to-nearest (RTN) schemes when quantizing weights near the centers of quantization intervals. Starting from a pretrained LLM, ReRound trains a conditional diffusion model to produce continuous reconstructions of low-bit weights for the LLM. These reconstructed weights act as a guidance signal to disambiguate the rounding direction of weights located close to interval midpoints. To integrate this reconstruction-guided rounding with conventional RTN, ReRound introduces a tolerance metric measuring how far the quantized weight (not the final quantized integer) is away from the midpoint: quantized weights within a tolerance region around midpoints are quantized using diffusion-based reconstructions, whereas weights closer to quantization boundaries are quantized with RTN. By sweeping the tolerance parameter, ReRound generates multiple candidate quantized integer weight matrices and selects the de-quantized weight matrix candidate whose leading singular values most closely match those of the original full-precision weights. This selected candidate determines the tolerance parameter ReRound uses. ReRound is particularly effective for smaller LLMs. Across a range of such models, it consistently outperforms standard RTN for 3-bit and 4-bit weight quantization. ReRound achieves superior accuracy compared to an extensive set of calibration-free methods, remains competitive with calibration-dependent approaches, and operates entirely offline, introducing no additional overhead during low-bit inference. The ReRound strategy represents a new approach for low-bit quantization. The method applies to AI models beyond LLMs. This paper focuses on its applications to small LLMs.

Don't Guess, Just Ask: Resolving Ambiguity in Referring Segmentation via Multi-turn Clarification

Referring segmentation aims to segment the target objects in images or videos based on the textual query. Despite remarkable progress over the past years, existing works always assume that the user-provided queries are already precise and clear. However, this assumption is impractical. In real-world scenarios, it is unrealistic to expect all users to thoroughly review their visual content and carefully ensure their queries are unique and unambiguous. When encountering such cases, existing segmentation models tend to arbitrarily guess the user preferences, often resulting in undesired outcomes. To address this limitation, we propose IC-Seg, a novel agentic framework that proactively clarifies user intent through multi-turn conversation before segmentation. To effectively incentivize this capability, we further introduce Hi-GRPO, a new hierarchical optimization strategy that injects dense and informative supervision signals at the trajectory, turn, and step levels. This strategy encourages efficient intent clarification, effectively eliminating redundant interactions and improving overall dialogue quality. For evaluation, we establish Ambi-RVOS, a referring video object segmentation benchmark with ambiguous user queries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that IC-Seg not only outperforms existing methods by a large margin in resolving ambiguous queries, but also maintains state-of-the-art performance on standard reasoning segmentation benchmarks. Code and data will be released at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/IC-Seg.

Clearer Frames, Anytime: Resolving Velocity Ambiguity in Video Frame Interpolation

Existing video frame interpolation (VFI) methods blindly predict where each object is at a specific timestep t ("time indexing"), which struggles to predict precise object movements. Given two images of a baseball, there are infinitely many possible trajectories: accelerating or decelerating, straight or curved. This often results in blurry frames as the method averages out these possibilities. Instead of forcing the network to learn this complicated time-to-location mapping implicitly together with predicting the frames, we provide the network with an explicit hint on how far the object has traveled between start and end frames, a novel approach termed "distance indexing". This method offers a clearer learning goal for models, reducing the uncertainty tied to object speeds. We further observed that, even with this extra guidance, objects can still be blurry especially when they are equally far from both input frames (i.e., halfway in-between), due to the directional ambiguity in long-range motion. To solve this, we propose an iterative reference-based estimation strategy that breaks down a long-range prediction into several short-range steps. When integrating our plug-and-play strategies into state-of-the-art learning-based models, they exhibit markedly sharper outputs and superior perceptual quality in arbitrary time interpolations, using a uniform distance indexing map in the same format as time indexing. Additionally, distance indexing can be specified pixel-wise, which enables temporal manipulation of each object independently, offering a novel tool for video editing tasks like re-timing.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 14, 2023 1

Do LLMs Understand Visual Anomalies? Uncovering LLM's Capabilities in Zero-shot Anomaly Detection

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) are markedly proficient in deriving visual representations guided by natural language. Recent explorations have utilized LVLMs to tackle zero-shot visual anomaly detection (VAD) challenges by pairing images with textual descriptions indicative of normal and abnormal conditions, referred to as anomaly prompts. However, existing approaches depend on static anomaly prompts that are prone to cross-semantic ambiguity, and prioritize global image-level representations over crucial local pixel-level image-to-text alignment that is necessary for accurate anomaly localization. In this paper, we present ALFA, a training-free approach designed to address these challenges via a unified model. We propose a run-time prompt adaptation strategy, which first generates informative anomaly prompts to leverage the capabilities of a large language model (LLM). This strategy is enhanced by a contextual scoring mechanism for per-image anomaly prompt adaptation and cross-semantic ambiguity mitigation. We further introduce a novel fine-grained aligner to fuse local pixel-level semantics for precise anomaly localization, by projecting the image-text alignment from global to local semantic spaces. Extensive evaluations on MVTec and VisA datasets confirm ALFA's effectiveness in harnessing the language potential for zero-shot VAD, achieving significant PRO improvements of 12.1% on MVTec and 8.9% on VisA compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 15, 2024

CAT: Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Model to Answer Questions in Dynamic Audio-Visual Scenarios

This paper focuses on the challenge of answering questions in scenarios that are composed of rich and complex dynamic audio-visual components. Although existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) can respond to audio-visual content, these responses are sometimes ambiguous and fail to describe specific audio-visual events. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the CAT, which enhances MLLM in three ways: 1) besides straightforwardly bridging audio and video, we design a clue aggregator that aggregates question-related clues in dynamic audio-visual scenarios to enrich the detailed knowledge required for large language models. 2) CAT is trained on a mixed multimodal dataset, allowing direct application in audio-visual scenarios. Notably, we collect an audio-visual joint instruction dataset named AVinstruct, to further enhance the capacity of CAT to model cross-semantic correlations. 3) we propose AI-assisted ambiguity-aware direct preference optimization, a strategy specialized in retraining the model to favor the non-ambiguity response and improve the ability to localize specific audio-visual objects. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that CAT outperforms existing methods on multimodal tasks, especially in Audio-Visual Question Answering (AVQA) tasks. The codes and the collected instructions are released at https://github.com/rikeilong/Bay-CAT.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 7, 2024

Fact-Checking with Large Language Models via Probabilistic Certainty and Consistency

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve external evidence indiscriminately, overlooking the model's internal knowledge and potentially introducing irrelevant noise. Moreover, current systems lack targeted mechanisms to resolve specific uncertainties in the model's reasoning. Inspired by how humans fact-check, we argue that LLMs should adaptively decide whether to rely on internal knowledge or initiate retrieval based on their confidence in a given claim. We introduce Probabilistic Certainty and Consistency (PCC), a framework that estimates factual confidence by jointly modeling an LLM's probabilistic certainty and reasoning consistency. These confidence signals enable an adaptive verification strategy: the model answers directly when confident, triggers targeted retrieval when uncertain or inconsistent, and escalates to deep search when ambiguity is high. Our confidence-guided routing mechanism ensures that retrieval is invoked only when necessary, improving both efficiency and reliability. Extensive experiments across three challenging benchmarks show that PCC achieves better uncertainty quantification than verbalized confidence and consistently outperforms strong LLM-based fact-checking baselines. Furthermore, we demonstrate that PCC generalizes well across various LLMs.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 5

VideoRFSplat: Direct Scene-Level Text-to-3D Gaussian Splatting Generation with Flexible Pose and Multi-View Joint Modeling

We propose VideoRFSplat, a direct text-to-3D model leveraging a video generation model to generate realistic 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) for unbounded real-world scenes. To generate diverse camera poses and unbounded spatial extent of real-world scenes, while ensuring generalization to arbitrary text prompts, previous methods fine-tune 2D generative models to jointly model camera poses and multi-view images. However, these methods suffer from instability when extending 2D generative models to joint modeling due to the modality gap, which necessitates additional models to stabilize training and inference. In this work, we propose an architecture and a sampling strategy to jointly model multi-view images and camera poses when fine-tuning a video generation model. Our core idea is a dual-stream architecture that attaches a dedicated pose generation model alongside a pre-trained video generation model via communication blocks, generating multi-view images and camera poses through separate streams. This design reduces interference between the pose and image modalities. Additionally, we propose an asynchronous sampling strategy that denoises camera poses faster than multi-view images, allowing rapidly denoised poses to condition multi-view generation, reducing mutual ambiguity and enhancing cross-modal consistency. Trained on multiple large-scale real-world datasets (RealEstate10K, MVImgNet, DL3DV-10K, ACID), VideoRFSplat outperforms existing text-to-3D direct generation methods that heavily depend on post-hoc refinement via score distillation sampling, achieving superior results without such refinement.

everex EverEx
·
Mar 20, 2025 2

MiCRo: Mixture Modeling and Context-aware Routing for Personalized Preference Learning

Reward modeling is a key step in building safe foundation models when applying reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) to align Large Language Models (LLMs). However, reward modeling based on the Bradley-Terry (BT) model assumes a global reward function, failing to capture the inherently diverse and heterogeneous human preferences. Hence, such oversimplification limits LLMs from supporting personalization and pluralistic alignment. Theoretically, we show that when human preferences follow a mixture distribution of diverse subgroups, a single BT model has an irreducible error. While existing solutions, such as multi-objective learning with fine-grained annotations, help address this issue, they are costly and constrained by predefined attributes, failing to fully capture the richness of human values. In this work, we introduce MiCRo, a two-stage framework that enhances personalized preference learning by leveraging large-scale binary preference datasets without requiring explicit fine-grained annotations. In the first stage, MiCRo introduces context-aware mixture modeling approach to capture diverse human preferences. In the second stage, MiCRo integrates an online routing strategy that dynamically adapts mixture weights based on specific context to resolve ambiguity, allowing for efficient and scalable preference adaptation with minimal additional supervision. Experiments on multiple preference datasets demonstrate that MiCRo effectively captures diverse human preferences and significantly improves downstream personalization.

  • 8 authors
·
May 30, 2025 2

3D-Fixer: Coarse-to-Fine In-place Completion for 3D Scenes from a Single Image

Compositional 3D scene generation from a single view requires the simultaneous recovery of scene layout and 3D assets. Existing approaches mainly fall into two categories: feed-forward generation methods and per-instance generation methods. The former directly predict 3D assets with explicit 6DoF poses through efficient network inference, but they generalize poorly to complex scenes. The latter improve generalization through a divide-and-conquer strategy, but suffer from time-consuming pose optimization. To bridge this gap, we introduce 3D-Fixer, a novel in-place completion paradigm. Specifically, 3D-Fixer extends 3D object generative priors to generate complete 3D assets conditioned on the partially visible point cloud at the original locations, which are cropped from the fragmented geometry obtained from the geometry estimation methods. Unlike prior works that require explicit pose alignment, 3D-Fixer uses fragmented geometry as a spatial anchor to preserve layout fidelity. At its core, we propose a coarse-to-fine generation scheme to resolve boundary ambiguity under occlusion, supported by a dual-branch conditioning network and an Occlusion-Robust Feature Alignment (ORFA) strategy for stable training. Furthermore, to address the data scarcity bottleneck, we present ARSG-110K, the largest scene-level dataset to date, comprising over 110K diverse scenes and 3M annotated images with high-fidelity 3D ground truth. Extensive experiments show that 3D-Fixer achieves state-of-the-art geometric accuracy, which significantly outperforms baselines such as MIDI and Gen3DSR, while maintaining the efficiency of the diffusion process. Code and data will be publicly available at https://zx-yin.github.io/3dfixer.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 5

PolyVivid: Vivid Multi-Subject Video Generation with Cross-Modal Interaction and Enhancement

Despite recent advances in video generation, existing models still lack fine-grained controllability, especially for multi-subject customization with consistent identity and interaction. In this paper, we propose PolyVivid, a multi-subject video customization framework that enables flexible and identity-consistent generation. To establish accurate correspondences between subject images and textual entities, we design a VLLM-based text-image fusion module that embeds visual identities into the textual space for precise grounding. To further enhance identity preservation and subject interaction, we propose a 3D-RoPE-based enhancement module that enables structured bidirectional fusion between text and image embeddings. Moreover, we develop an attention-inherited identity injection module to effectively inject fused identity features into the video generation process, mitigating identity drift. Finally, we construct an MLLM-based data pipeline that combines MLLM-based grounding, segmentation, and a clique-based subject consolidation strategy to produce high-quality multi-subject data, effectively enhancing subject distinction and reducing ambiguity in downstream video generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PolyVivid achieves superior performance in identity fidelity, video realism, and subject alignment, outperforming existing open-source and commercial baselines.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 9, 2025 2

When Search Agents Should Ask: DiscoBench for Clarification-Aware Deep Search

Search agents powered by large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to solve complex information-seeking tasks, requiring multi-step retrieval and reasoning to fulfill user goals. However, existing benchmarks often assume that user queries are complete and explicit, overlooking the fact that real-world search requests are frequently vague, underspecified, or even factually incorrect. In deep search scenarios, such ambiguity can propagate along multi-step reasoning chains and lead agents toward incorrect search trajectories. To address this gap, we introduce DiscoBench, a benchmark for clarification-aware deep search, designed to evaluate whether search agents can proactively identify ambiguity, ask effective clarification questions, and recover correct reasoning paths through user interaction. DiscoBench contains 211 samples and 463 ambiguity instances across 11 real-world domains, covering four ambiguity types. We further design a user simulator for multi-turn interaction and evaluate model performance from four perspectives: task utility, ambiguity detection, interaction strategy, and cost efficiency. Experiments on representative LLMs show that ambiguity detection and effective clarification are distinct capabilities, and that repeatedly searching instead of asking for clarification often performs worse than direct guessing, highlighting a critical gap between retrieval ability and interactive problem-solving in current search agents.

CondAmbigQA: A Benchmark and Dataset for Conditional Ambiguous Question Answering

Large language models (LLMs) are prone to hallucinations in question-answering (QA) tasks when faced with ambiguous questions. Users often assume that LLMs share their cognitive alignment, a mutual understanding of context, intent, and implicit details, leading them to omit critical information in the queries. However, LLMs generate responses based on assumptions that can misalign with user intent, which may be perceived as hallucinations if they misalign with the user's intent. Therefore, identifying those implicit assumptions is crucial to resolve ambiguities in QA. Prior work, such as AmbigQA, reduces ambiguity in queries via human-annotated clarifications, which is not feasible in real application. Meanwhile, ASQA compiles AmbigQA's short answers into long-form responses but inherits human biases and fails capture explicit logical distinctions that differentiates the answers. We introduce Conditional Ambiguous Question-Answering (CondAmbigQA), a benchmark with 200 ambiguous queries and condition-aware evaluation metrics. Our study pioneers the concept of ``conditions'' in ambiguous QA tasks, where conditions stand for contextual constraints or assumptions that resolve ambiguities. The retrieval-based annotation strategy uses retrieved Wikipedia fragments to identify possible interpretations for a given query as its conditions and annotate the answers through those conditions. Such a strategy minimizes human bias introduced by different knowledge levels among annotators. By fixing retrieval results, CondAmbigQA evaluates how RAG systems leverage conditions to resolve ambiguities. Experiments show that models considering conditions before answering improve performance by 20%, with an additional 5% gain when conditions are explicitly provided. These results underscore the value of conditional reasoning in QA, offering researchers tools to rigorously evaluate ambiguity resolution.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 3, 2025

A^2Search: Ambiguity-Aware Question Answering with Reinforcement Learning

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) have led to strong performance in open-domain question answering (QA). However, existing models still struggle with questions that admit multiple valid answers. Standard QA benchmarks, which typically assume a single gold answer, overlook this reality and thus produce inappropriate training signals. Existing attempts to handle ambiguity often rely on costly manual annotation, which is difficult to scale to multi-hop datasets such as HotpotQA and MuSiQue. In this paper, we present A^2Search, an annotation-free, end-to-end training framework to recognize and handle ambiguity. At its core is an automated pipeline that detects ambiguous questions and gathers alternative answers via trajectory sampling and evidence verification. The model is then optimized with RL using a carefully designed AnsF1 reward, which naturally accommodates multiple answers. Experiments on eight open-domain QA benchmarks demonstrate that A^2Search achieves new state-of-the-art performance. With only a single rollout, A^2Search-7B yields an average AnsF1@1 score of 48.4% across four multi-hop benchmarks, outperforming all strong baselines, including the substantially larger ReSearch-32B (46.2%). Extensive analyses further show that A^2Search resolves ambiguity and generalizes across benchmarks, highlighting that embracing ambiguity is essential for building more reliable QA systems. Our code, data, and model weights can be found at https://github.com/zfj1998/A2Search

Strategy Executability in Mathematical Reasoning: Leveraging Human-Model Differences for Effective Guidance

Example-based guidance is widely used to improve mathematical reasoning at inference time, yet its effectiveness is highly unstable across problems and models-even when the guidance is correct and problem-relevant. We show that this instability arises from a previously underexplored gap between strategy usage-whether a reasoning strategy appears in successful solutions-and strategy executability-whether the strategy remains effective when instantiated as guidance for a target model. Through a controlled analysis of paired human-written and model-generated solutions, we identify a systematic dissociation between usage and executability: human- and model-derived strategies differ in structured, domain-dependent ways, leading to complementary strengths and consistent source-dependent reversals under guidance. Building on this diagnosis, we propose Selective Strategy Retrieval (SSR), a test-time framework that explicitly models executability by selectively retrieving and combining strategies using empirical, multi-route, source-aware signals. Across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks, SSR yields reliable and consistent improvements over direct solving, in-context learning, and single-source guidance, improving accuracy by up to +13 points on AIME25 and +5 points on Apex for compact reasoning models. Code and benchmark are publicly available at: https://github.com/lwd17/strategy-execute-pipeline.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 25

Ensembling Portfolio Strategies for Long-Term Investments: A Distribution-Free Preference Framework for Decision-Making and Algorithms

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 5, 2024

Statutory Construction and Interpretation for Artificial Intelligence

AI systems are increasingly governed by natural language principles, yet a key challenge arising from reliance on language remains underexplored: interpretive ambiguity. As in legal systems, ambiguity arises both from how these principles are written and how they are applied. But while legal systems use institutional safeguards to manage such ambiguity, such as transparent appellate review policing interpretive constraints, AI alignment pipelines offer no comparable protections. Different interpretations of the same rule can lead to inconsistent or unstable model behavior. Drawing on legal theory, we identify key gaps in current alignment pipelines by examining how legal systems constrain ambiguity at both the rule creation and rule application steps. We then propose a computational framework that mirrors two legal mechanisms: (1) a rule refinement pipeline that minimizes interpretive disagreement by revising ambiguous rules (analogous to agency rulemaking or iterative legislative action), and (2) prompt-based interpretive constraints that reduce inconsistency in rule application (analogous to legal canons that guide judicial discretion). We evaluate our framework on a 5,000-scenario subset of the WildChat dataset and show that both interventions significantly improve judgment consistency across a panel of reasonable interpreters. Our approach offers a first step toward systematically managing interpretive ambiguity, an essential step for building more robust, law-following AI systems.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 1, 2025

Beating the average: how to generate profit by exploiting the inefficiencies of soccer betting

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 12, 2023

Clarification Is Not Correction: LLMs Fail to Let Go

Dialogue failures in language models are usually framed as memory failures: context too long, summaries lossy, a constraint forgotten. We argue this misses a deeper problem: in many conversations the model does not forget, it commits too early. An ambiguous early turn collapses into a single hidden interpretation, and later clarification is filtered through that commitment. We call this early posterior collapse: unresolved user intent collapsing into a committed task state before ambiguity is resolved. We study it with controlled dialogue tasks in writing, planning, and coding using Gemini-2.5-Pro and Gemini-2.5-Flash. Across thousands of trials, the same information in different orders yields different outcomes, even when the final dialogue contains equivalent task-relevant information. This order effect suggests later clarification is treated as extra context rather than a corrective signal: it refines a stale task state without invalidating it. Coding tasks are especially vulnerable, suggesting early assumptions get embedded in structured artifacts such as interfaces and control flow. Standard prompting and memory strategies do not reliably help: summaries can collapse ambiguity, and chain-of-thought can reduce explicit wrong commitment in reasoning traces without improving final task success. These findings motivate uncertainty-preserving state management. If assistants cannot let go of early interpretations, robustness cannot rely on post hoc correction alone; it must keep ambiguous early turns from hardening into one task state. Assistants should hold tentative hypotheses while ambiguity remains, ask before executing when high-impact ambiguity persists, and rebuild from a revised state when later evidence invalidates an earlier reading. Rather than one prompting fix, we aim to redirect research for interactive LLMs from retaining more context toward preserving uncertainty.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 20

NRR-Core: Non-Resolution Reasoning as a Computational Framework for Contextual Identity and Ambiguity Preservation

Current artificial intelligence systems exhibit a fundamental architectural limitation: they resolve ambiguity prematurely. This premature semantic collapse--collapsing multiple valid interpretations into single outputs--stems from classical identity assumptions in neural architectures. We propose Non-Resolution Reasoning (NRR), a framework treating ambiguity retention as a valid reasoning mode. NRR introduces three principles: (1) Non-Identity (A neq A)--the same symbol refers to different entities across contexts; (2) Approximate Identity (A approx A)--entities share partial structural overlap without being identical; (3) Non-Resolution--conflicting interpretations coexist without forced convergence. We formalize these through Multi-Vector Embeddings for context-dependent representation, Non-Collapsing Attention for parallel interpretation retention, and Contextual Identity Tracking (CIT) for maintaining A neq A across inference. We illustrate NRR through case studies in paradox handling, creative generation, and context-dependent reasoning. Functional verification in a synthetic two-turn disambiguation task shows NRR-lite maintains high entropy (H = 0.91 bits, near-maximum 1.0) at ambiguous turns while standard architectures collapse early (H = 0.15 bits), preserving interpretive flexibility until context arrives. NRR challenges the assumption that meaning must collapse to be useful. The question is not whether AI should resolve ambiguity, but when, how, and under whose control.

  • 1 authors
·
Dec 15, 2025

The Entity-Deduction Arena: A playground for probing the conversational reasoning and planning capabilities of LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) are effective at answering questions that are clearly asked. However, when faced with ambiguous queries they can act unpredictably and produce incorrect outputs. This underscores the need for the development of intelligent agents capable of asking clarification questions to resolve ambiguities effectively. This capability requires complex understanding, state tracking, reasoning and planning over multiple conversational turns. However, directly measuring this can be challenging. In this paper, we offer a surrogate problem which assesses an LLMs's capability to deduce an entity unknown to itself, but revealed to a judge, by asking the judge a series of queries. This entity-deducing game can serve as an evaluation framework to probe the conversational reasoning and planning capabilities of language models. We systematically evaluate various LLMs and discover significant differences in their performance on this task. We find that strong LLMs like GPT-4 outperform human players by a large margin. We further employ Behavior Cloning (BC) to examine whether a weaker model is capable of imitating a stronger model and generalizing to data or domains, using only the demonstrations from a stronger model. We finally propose to use Reinforcement Learning to enhance reasoning and planning capacity of Vicuna models through episodes of game playing, which lead to significant performance improvement. We hope that this problem offers insights into how autonomous agents could be trained to behave more intelligently in ambiguous circumstances.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 2, 2023

An analytical framework for the Levine hats problem: new strategies, bounds and generalizations

We study the Levine hat problem, a classic combinatorial puzzle introduced by Lionel Levine in 2010. This problem involves a game in which n geq 2 players, each seeing an infinite stack of hats on each of their teammates' heads but not on their own, must simultaneously guess the index of a black hat on their own stack. If one of the players fails to do so, the team loses collectively. The players must therefore come up with a good strategy before the game starts. While the optimal winning probability V_{n} remains unknown even for n=2, we make three key advances. First, we develop a novel geometric framework for representing strategies through measurable functions, providing a new expression of V_{n} and a unified treatment of the game for finite and for infinite stacks via integral formulations. Secondly, we construct a new strategy K_{5} that reaches the conjectured optimal probability of victory : 0.35. We also show that K_{5} is part of a larger class of strategies that allow us to improve current bounds and resolve conjectured inequalities. Finally, we introduce and entirely solve a continuous generalization of the problem, demonstrating that extending to uncountable hat stacks increases the optimal winning probability to exactly 1/2. This generalization naturally leads to a broader and smoother strategic framework, within which we also describe how to compute optimal responses to a range of strategies.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 3, 2025

Benchmarking the Benchmarks: Evaluating Automated Safety Benchmarks for Small Language Models

Small Language Models (SLMs) are increasingly deployed in resource-constrained, privacy-sensitive settings, where safety and bias failures can cause security and societal risks. However, existing AI safety\slash security\slash compliance benchmarks are designed for large language models that may not transfer reliably to SLMs. We therefore ask: Can these benchmarks effectively and reliably evaluate SLMs? To answer this question, we conduct a large-scale assessment of the effectiveness and robustness of these automated pipelines by evaluating five widely used benchmark suites across 26 open-source SLMs under a unified judging rubric, which assigns a score of 0, 1, or 0.5 to harmful, safe, or ambiguous/irrelevant responses, respectively. Across the benchmarks, ambiguous judgments dominate and correlate with prompt complexity and model architecture, indicating that {\em LLM-centric safety benchmarks are insufficient as standalone evidence for SLM safety assessment}. In general, the ambiguity rate increases with lexical density, output perplexity, and output length and decreases with lexical sophistication, self-coherence, and reply-prompt similarity. This reveals a capability-safety confound that mixes model capability with apparent safety. Since ambiguity is prevalent, aggregate mean-score leaderboards are mathematically brittle: model rankings change significantly under reasonable ambiguity treatments, even when the underlying outputs remain unchanged.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 16

Ambig-DS: A Benchmark for Task-Framing Ambiguity in Data-Science Agents

As data-science agents shift from co-pilots to auto-pilots, silent misframing becomes a critical failure mode. Agents quietly commit to plausible but unintended task framings, producing clean, executable artifacts that hide their incorrect assessment of the task. Existing benchmarks score whether the pipeline runs, ignoring whether the agent recognized the task was underspecified. We introduce Ambig-DS, two diagnostic suites: one for prediction-target ambiguity (Ambig-DS-Target, 51 tasks built on DSBench, a tabular modeling benchmark) and one for evaluation-objective ambiguity (Ambig-DS-Objective, 61 tasks built on MLE-bench, a Kaggle-style ML competition benchmark), constructed so that scoring uses each source benchmark's original evaluator. For every task we pair the original, fully specified version with an ambiguous variant produced by controlled edits; a human-and-LLM verification pipeline confirms each variant admits multiple plausible interpretations with decision-relevant consequences. The suites are analyzed independently and ambiguity lowers performance in both. Across five agents spanning efficient to frontier-class models, we find in our controlled diagnostic setting: (i) failures are silent commitments: wrong-target submissions on Target, wrong-metric or non-committal baseline submissions on Objective, rather than execution errors; (ii) allowing the agent to ask one clarifying question recovers much of the loss under idealized conditions, suggesting missing framing information drives a substantial part of the observed degradation; but (iii) agents cannot reliably tell when to use it: permissive prompts induce over-asking on clear tasks, while conservative prompts induce silent defaulting on ambiguous ones. Recognizing target and objective underspecification, not pipeline execution, is the bottleneck missing from standard DS-agent evaluations.

  • 5 authors
·
May 9 1

ASPI: Seeking Ambiguity Clarification Amplifies Prompt Injection Vulnerability in LLM Agents

Clarification-seeking behavior is widely regarded as a desirable property of LLM agents, enabling them to resolve ambiguity before acting on underspecified tasks. However, the security implications of this interaction pattern remain unexplored. We investigate whether the transition from standard execution to a clarification-seeking state increases an agent's susceptibility to prompt injection attacks. We introduce ASPI (Ambiguous-State Prompt Injection), a benchmark of 728 task-attack scenarios that isolates clarification as a distinct agent state and measures how this state transition affects vulnerability under controlled conditions. Each benchmark instance is evaluated under matched execution and clarification settings: in the execution setting, the agent acts on a fully specified instruction and encounters adversarial content only through tool-returned data; in the clarification setting, the agent must first request and incorporate additional user input before acting. We evaluate ten frontier LLMs and find that clarification-seeking consistently and substantially amplifies vulnerability. For instance, attack success rises from 1.8% to 34.0% for o3 and from 2.2% to 35.7% for Gemini-3-Flash. A decomposition analysis reveals that this gap reflects both a state-dependent shift in how models process incoming content and a channel-specific effect arising from the agent-solicited clarification interface. These findings demonstrate that standard execution-time security evaluation systematically underestimates the attack surface of interactive agents, and that robustness under fully specified tasks does not translate to robustness under ambiguity. For reproducibility, our data and source code are available at https://github.com/scaleapi/aspi.

  • 6 authors
·
May 16

AM-Bench: Understanding Agents under Task Underspecification across Models and Harnesses

Ambiguous or incomplete task specifications complicate both execution and clarification for language-model agents. Yet agents' responses to these information gaps remain poorly characterized across models and execution harnesses. We present AM-Bench, a benchmark built from 48 tasks adapted from Terminal-Bench 2.0 and Harness-Bench. Each task includes a fully specified reference and six variants spanning ambiguous or missing goals, context, and constraints. We evaluate every pairing of five models and four harnesses over 20,160 runs. Our results reveal distinct execution deficits: goal gaps hinder completion, context gaps increase token use, and constraint gaps weaken compliance without necessarily preventing completion. Missingness lowers success more than ambiguity in all three domains. These effects also reshape system comparisons: advantages under complete information need not persist, and rankings depend on model times harness pairings and the evaluation criterion -- completion, success, or repeat consistency. Estimates based on observed clarification requests and matched fully specified runs further suggest that clarification could recover unfinished work while leaving most constraint violations unresolved. Together, these findings motivate joint model-harness evaluation across information conditions and targeted clarification of unresolved requirements before dependent actions. To support future research on agents under task underspecification, we provide the AM-Bench project repository at https://github.com/s4-lab-cuhksz/AM-Bench.git.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 12

ToMPO: Training LLM Strategic Decision Making from a Multi-Agent Perspective

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been used to make decisions in complex scenarios, where they need models to think deeply, reason logically, and decide wisely. Many existing studies focus solely on multi-round conversations in social tasks or simulated environments, neglecting the various types of decisions and their interdependence. Current reinforcement learning methods struggle to consider the strategies of others during training. To address these issues, we first define a strategic decision-making problem that includes two types of decisions and their temporal dependencies. Furthermore, we propose **T**heory **o**f **M**ind **P**olicy **O**ptimization **(ToMPO)** algorithm to optimize the perception of other individual strategies and the game situation trends. Compared to the Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) algorithm, ToMPO enhances the LLM's strategic decision-making mainly by: 1) generating rollouts based on reasoning the strategies of other individuals, 2) estimating advantages at both the graph-level and sample-level, and 3) balancing global and partial rewards. The ToMPO algorithm outperforms the GRPO method by 35% in terms of model output compliance and cooperative outcomes. Additionally, when compared to models with parameter sizes 100 times larger, it shows an 18% improvement. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the ToMPO algorithm in enhancing the model's strategic decision-making capabilities.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 24, 2025

Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming

Frontier models are increasingly trained and deployed as autonomous agent. One safety concern is that AI agents might covertly pursue misaligned goals, hiding their true capabilities and objectives - also known as scheming. We study whether models have the capability to scheme in pursuit of a goal that we provide in-context and instruct the model to strongly follow. We evaluate frontier models on a suite of six agentic evaluations where models are instructed to pursue goals and are placed in environments that incentivize scheming. Our results show that o1, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Claude 3 Opus, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Llama 3.1 405B all demonstrate in-context scheming capabilities. They recognize scheming as a viable strategy and readily engage in such behavior. For example, models strategically introduce subtle mistakes into their responses, attempt to disable their oversight mechanisms, and even exfiltrate what they believe to be their model weights to external servers. Additionally, this deceptive behavior proves persistent. When o1 has engaged in scheming, it maintains its deception in over 85% of follow-up questions and often remains deceptive in multi-turn interrogations. Analysis of the models' chains-of-thought reveals that models explicitly reason about these deceptive strategies, providing evidence that the scheming behavior is not accidental. Surprisingly, we also find rare instances where models engage in scheming when only given a goal, without being strongly nudged to pursue it. We observe cases where Claude 3.5 Sonnet strategically underperforms in evaluations in pursuit of being helpful, a goal that was acquired during training rather than in-context. Our findings demonstrate that frontier models now possess capabilities for basic in-context scheming, making the potential of AI agents to engage in scheming behavior a concrete rather than theoretical concern.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 6, 2024

Plan before Solving: Problem-Aware Strategy Routing for Mathematical Reasoning with LLMs

Existing methods usually leverage a fixed strategy, such as natural language reasoning, code-augmented reasoning, tool-integrated reasoning, or ensemble-based reasoning, to guide Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform mathematical reasoning. Our analysis reveals that the single strategy cannot adapt to problem-specific requirements and thus overlooks the trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency. To address these issues, we propose Planning and Routing through Instance-Specific Modeling (PRISM), a novel framework that decouples mathematical reasoning into two stages: strategy planning and targeted execution. Specifically, we first curate a multi-strategy preference dataset, which we call MathStrat, capturing correctness, process quality, and computational efficiency for each problem--strategy pair. Then, we train a lightweight Strategy Adapter based on the dataset to obtain confidence distributions over the mentioned four reasoning strategies. At inference time, an adaptive routing policy dynamically tailors the reasoning approach based on predictor confidence. It directs the model to use single-strategy execution for high-confidence predictions, dual-strategy verification for competitive scenarios, or comprehensive multi-strategy exploration for uncertain cases. Extensive experiments across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that PRISM consistently outperforms individual strategies and ensemble baselines, achieving improvements ranging from 0.9% to 7.6% across different base models. The adaptive routing approach shows particularly strong benefits for mathematical reasoning tasks across diverse model architectures. Our code is released at https://github.com/reml-group/PRISM.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 29, 2025

BoardgameQA: A Dataset for Natural Language Reasoning with Contradictory Information

Automated reasoning with unstructured natural text is a key requirement for many potential applications of NLP and for developing robust AI systems. Recently, Language Models (LMs) have demonstrated complex reasoning capacities even without any finetuning. However, existing evaluation for automated reasoning assumes access to a consistent and coherent set of information over which models reason. When reasoning in the real-world, the available information is frequently inconsistent or contradictory, and therefore models need to be equipped with a strategy to resolve such conflicts when they arise. One widely-applicable way of resolving conflicts is to impose preferences over information sources (e.g., based on source credibility or information recency) and adopt the source with higher preference. In this paper, we formulate the problem of reasoning with contradictory information guided by preferences over sources as the classical problem of defeasible reasoning, and develop a dataset called BoardgameQA for measuring the reasoning capacity of LMs in this setting. BoardgameQA also incorporates reasoning with implicit background knowledge, to better reflect reasoning problems in downstream applications. We benchmark various LMs on BoardgameQA and the results reveal a significant gap in the reasoning capacity of state-of-the-art LMs on this problem, showing that reasoning with conflicting information does not surface out-of-the-box in LMs. While performance can be improved with finetuning, it nevertheless remains poor.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 13, 2023

Are ChatGPT and GPT-4 Good Poker Players? -- A Pre-Flop Analysis

Since the introduction of ChatGPT and GPT-4, these models have been tested across a large number of tasks. Their adeptness across domains is evident, but their aptitude in playing games, and specifically their aptitude in the realm of poker has remained unexplored. Poker is a game that requires decision making under uncertainty and incomplete information. In this paper, we put ChatGPT and GPT-4 through the poker test and evaluate their poker skills. Our findings reveal that while both models display an advanced understanding of poker, encompassing concepts like the valuation of starting hands, playing positions and other intricacies of game theory optimal (GTO) poker, both ChatGPT and GPT-4 are NOT game theory optimal poker players. Profitable strategies in poker are evaluated in expectations over large samples. Through a series of experiments, we first discover the characteristics of optimal prompts and model parameters for playing poker with these models. Our observations then unveil the distinct playing personas of the two models. We first conclude that GPT-4 is a more advanced poker player than ChatGPT. This exploration then sheds light on the divergent poker tactics of the two models: ChatGPT's conservativeness juxtaposed against GPT-4's aggression. In poker vernacular, when tasked to play GTO poker, ChatGPT plays like a nit, which means that it has a propensity to only engage with premium hands and folds a majority of hands. When subjected to the same directive, GPT-4 plays like a maniac, showcasing a loose and aggressive style of play. Both strategies, although relatively advanced, are not game theory optimal.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 23, 2023

Choosing LLMs for Strategic Agent Interactions

Game-theoretic benchmarks claim that large language model (LLM) strategic decision-making varies across game types, interaction structures, and capability dimensions. However, they only evaluate strategic performance across individual fixed models. In parallel, contemporary LLM routers pick models under quality-cost trade-offs, but with no notion of a strategic structure. They do not account for an opponent that might be unknown, and that can adapt over time and shift the feedback signal. To address this, we extend the game-theoretic evaluations and define strategic selection as the meta game layered on top of the base game. In each round, a strategic selector fields an LLM from a portfolio of models to navigate a game payoff matrix that is latent and learned online. We find that the evaluation signal is game-specific, and that extracting a reliable signal requires a much higher number of seed runs N compared to traditional benchmarking setups. Evaluating across 5 games and 10 LLMs, we show a model's strategic competence varies significantly depending on the game setup and the opponent faced. Building on this, we implement a suite of selector methods and find that approaches that rely on query embeddings or LLM self-reflection do not consistently capture the underlying strategic signal. A lightweight multi-armed bandit algorithm performs more reliably across games, though it still falls short of the best fixed model. Finally, we show that simple non-stationary and adversarial bandit variants fail to outperform a stationary bandit baseline, pointing to a gap in how current methods handle a shifting opponent in strategic settings.

CORE-AIx CORE-AIx
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Oct 12 3

Grounding Multimodal LLMs to Embodied Agents that Ask for Help with Reinforcement Learning

Embodied agents operating in real-world environments must interpret ambiguous and under-specified human instructions. A capable household robot should recognize ambiguity and ask relevant clarification questions to infer the user intent accurately, leading to more effective task execution. To study this problem, we introduce the Ask-to-Act task, where an embodied agent must fetch a specific object instance given an ambiguous instruction in a home environment. The agent must strategically ask minimal, yet relevant, clarification questions to resolve ambiguity while navigating under partial observability. To solve this problem, we propose a novel approach that fine-tunes multimodal large language models (MLLMs) as vision-language-action (VLA) policies using online reinforcement learning (RL) with LLM-generated rewards. Our method eliminates the need for large-scale human demonstrations or manually engineered rewards for training such agents. We benchmark against strong zero-shot baselines, including GPT-4o, and supervised fine-tuned MLLMs, on our task. Our results demonstrate that our RL-finetuned MLLM outperforms all baselines by a significant margin (19.1-40.3%), generalizing well to novel scenes and tasks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of adapting MLLMs as VLA agents that can act and ask for help using LLM-generated rewards with online RL.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 1, 2025

Soft Strategy Selection for Batch-Mode Active Learning

Real-world deployment of active learning typically forces practitioners to choose an acquisition strategy before any data is labeled. This is a daunting task: strategy performance varies widely across settings (e.g. datasets, surrogate models) and cannot be assessed without deployment. Existing strategy selection methods explore one strategy from a portfolio at each round and identify the optimal one using bandit feedback or model retraining. Many acquisition rounds are therefore spent exploring strategies rather than collecting the most informative data. Such overhead is a major barrier to AL-driven design of high-throughput experiments, such as genetic perturbation screens and directed evolution, where AL runs consist of only a few rounds with large batch sizes. This regime permits a natural alternative: acquiring data using multiple AL strategies within a single batch. We refer to this as soft strategy selection and introduce FractAL, a method specifically designed for this task. FractAL infers a per-strategy reward using influence-function-based data attribution, which requires no additional retraining, and then computes budget shares for each strategy in the portfolio using online mirror descent. We benchmark FractAL across 7 setups spanning classification, regression, and genetic perturbation effect prediction. The results highlight that strategy selection is a hard problem: every existing method performs worse than random sampling on at least one setup. FractAL, however, matches or outperforms every baseline, including random sampling, on all 7 setups. Its allocations concentrate budget on the strongest strategies in the portfolio while pruning the weakest. FractAL is therefore a reliable choice for real-world deployments, where the optimal strategy is unknown in advance, an important step towards making AL practical for high-throughput experiments and modern scientific discovery.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 3

When Reasoning Models Hurt Behavioral Simulation: A Solver-Sampler Mismatch in Multi-Agent LLM Negotiation

Large language models are increasingly used as agents in social, economic, and policy simulations. A common assumption is that stronger reasoning should improve simulation fidelity. We argue that this assumption can fail when the objective is not to solve a strategic problem, but to sample plausible boundedly rational behavior. In such settings, reasoning-enhanced models can become better solvers and worse simulators: they can over-optimize for strategically dominant actions, collapse compromise-oriented terminal behavior, and sometimes exhibit a diversity-without-fidelity pattern in which local variation survives without outcome-level fidelity. We study this solver-sampler mismatch in three multi-agent negotiation environments adapted from earlier simulation work: an ambiguous fragmented-authority trading-limits scenario, an ambiguous unified-opposition trading-limits scenario, and a new-domain grid-curtailment case in emergency electricity management. We compare three reflection conditions, no reflection, bounded reflection, and native reasoning, across two primary model families and then extend the same protocol to direct OpenAI runs with GPT-4.1 and GPT-5.2. Across all three experiments, bounded reflection produces substantially more diverse and compromise-oriented trajectories than either no reflection or native reasoning. In the direct OpenAI extension, GPT-5.2 native ends in authority decisions in 45 of 45 runs across the three experiments, while GPT-5.2 bounded recovers compromise outcomes in every environment. The contribution is not a claim that reasoning is generally harmful. It is a methodological warning: model capability and simulation fidelity are different objectives, and behavioral simulation should qualify models as samplers, not only as solvers.

  • 1 authors
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Apr 11 2

Can LLMs Reason in the Wild with Programs?

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown superior capability to solve reasoning problems with programs. While being a promising direction, most of such frameworks are trained and evaluated in settings with a prior knowledge of task requirements. However, as LLMs become more capable, it is necessary to assess their reasoning abilities in more realistic scenarios where many real-world problems are open-ended with ambiguous scope, and often require multiple formalisms to solve. To investigate this, we introduce the task of reasoning in the wild, where an LLM is tasked to solve a reasoning problem of unknown type by identifying the subproblems and their corresponding formalisms, and writing a program to solve each subproblem, guided by a tactic. We create a large tactic-guided trajectory dataset containing detailed solutions to a diverse set of reasoning problems, ranging from well-defined single-form reasoning (e.g., math, logic), to ambiguous and hybrid ones (e.g., commonsense, combined math and logic). This allows us to test various aspects of LLMs reasoning at the fine-grained level such as the selection and execution of tactics, and the tendency to take undesired shortcuts. In experiments, we highlight that existing LLMs fail significantly on problems with ambiguous and mixed scope, revealing critical limitations and overfitting issues (e.g. accuracy on GSM8K drops by at least 50\%). We further show the potential of finetuning a local LLM on the tactic-guided trajectories in achieving better performance. Project repo is available at github.com/gblackout/Reason-in-the-Wild

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 19, 2024

Quantifying Consistency in LLM Logical Reasoning via Structural Uncertainty

Large language models can arrive at the same answer through reasoning paths that are unstable, contradictory, or difficult to rank consistently -- a failure mode especially prevalent in multi-step deductive reasoning. Existing methods assess reliability primarily through output dispersion -- measuring how much sampled answers differ -- but this discards a complementary signal: whether the model can consistently rank competing reasoning candidates. We propose structural uncertainty, a consistency-aware framework derived from the stability of self-preference-induced rankings over sampled reasoning solutions. Given a query, we generate multiple candidate solutions and ask the model to judge pairwise preferences among its own outputs. We aggregate self-preferences into ranking distributions via Bradley-Terry modeling with PageRank, and decompose the signal into two entropy-based components: across-trial ranking instability and within-trial candidate ambiguity. Across five LLMs and eight benchmarks, structural signals provide information complementary to answer dispersion: on logical and mathematical reasoning tasks, the combination improves identification of unreliable instances, while on factual retrieval the structural signal collapses toward uniformity, diagnosing a regime boundary where reasoning-level consistency evaluation is uninformative. The two components relate differently to accuracy: within-trial ambiguity correlates positively with correctness -- consistent with settings where multiple plausible solution paths remain competitive -- while across-trial instability correlates negatively, signaling unreliable reasoning. Structural uncertainty is best understood not as a universal confidence estimator, but as a regime-sensitive evaluator of logical reasoning consistency.

  • 6 authors
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Jun 14

Assessing the Impact of Requirement Ambiguity on LLM-based Function-Level Code Generation

Software requirement ambiguity is ubiquitous in real-world development, stemming from the inherent imprecision of natural language and the varying interpretations of stakeholders. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in generating code from precise specifications, such ambiguity poses a significant obstacle to reliable automated code generation. Existing benchmarks typically assume clear and unambiguous requirements, leaving an empirical gap in understanding how LLMs behave when faced with the inherent uncertainty of real-world software requirements. In this paper, we introduce Orchid, the first code generation benchmark specifically designed with ambiguous requirements. It comprises 1,304 function-level tasks covering four distinct types of ambiguity: lexical, syntactic, semantic, and vagueness. Leveraging this dataset, we conduct the first systematic empirical study to evaluate the impact of requirement ambiguity on LLM-based code generation. Our results demonstrate that ambiguity consistently degrades the performance of all evaluated LLMs, with the most pronounced negative effects observed in highly advanced models. Furthermore, we observe that LLMs frequently produce functionally divergent implementations for the same ambiguous requirement and lack the capability to identify or resolve such ambiguity autonomously. These findings reveal a significant performance gap between clear and ambiguous requirements, underscoring the urgent need for ambiguity-aware techniques in the next generation of automated software engineering tools. The Orchid benchmark is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-YDD/Orchid.

  • 10 authors
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Apr 22

Localizing Input Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models via Shapley Values

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, the ability to reliably quantify uncertainty has become a critical requirement for safety and trust. However, current uncertainty quantification methods primarily operate at the output level, often failing to distinguish whether uncertainty arises from the model's lack of knowledge or from ambiguity in the user's input. While input-centric uncertainty quantification has recently emerged as a promising direction, it remains relatively underexplored and typically relies on coarse, input-level information. Consequently, users are provided with scalar uncertainty scores that offer little actionable guidance on which parts of the input should be clarified to improve reliability. To address this limitation, we propose Shapley-based input uncertainty Quantification (ShaQ), a framework for span-level attribution of input-induced uncertainty. Our approach models ambiguous spans in the input as players in a cooperative game and quantifies their contributions using Shapley values, defined via the weighted average of marginal reductions in conditional entropy obtained by clarifying each span coalition. Unlike existing input-level approaches, our formulation captures complex interactions among spans and provides a principled decomposition in which individual attributions sum exactly to the total input-induced uncertainty. We evaluate ShaQ on the AmbigQA and AmbiEnt benchmarks, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance in ambiguity detection. We further demonstrate its utility on MediTOD, showing that ShaQ can localize under-specified clinical utterances and facilitate human-AI collaboration in high-stakes settings. Overall, ShaQ improves uncertainty estimation and provides actionable insights for targeted input clarification.

  • 3 authors
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May 26

The Hot Mess of AI: How Does Misalignment Scale With Model Intelligence and Task Complexity?

As AI becomes more capable, we entrust it with more general and consequential tasks. The risks from failure grow more severe with increasing task scope. It is therefore important to understand how extremely capable AI models will fail: Will they fail by systematically pursuing goals we do not intend? Or will they fail by being a hot mess, and taking nonsensical actions that do not further any goal? We operationalize this question using a bias-variance decomposition of the errors made by AI models: An AI's incoherence on a task is measured over test-time randomness as the fraction of its error that stems from variance rather than bias in task outcome. Across all tasks and frontier models we measure, the longer models spend reasoning and taking actions, the more incoherent their failures become. Incoherence changes with model scale in a way that is experiment dependent. However, in several settings, larger, more capable models are more incoherent than smaller models. Consequently, scale alone seems unlikely to eliminate incoherence. Instead, as more capable AIs pursue harder tasks, requiring more sequential action and thought, our results predict failures to be accompanied by more incoherent behavior. This suggests a future where AIs sometimes cause industrial accidents (due to unpredictable misbehavior), but are less likely to exhibit consistent pursuit of a misaligned goal. This increases the relative importance of alignment research targeting reward hacking or goal misspecification.

  • 5 authors
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Jan 30

SpeedrunBench: Challenging LLM Agents with Video Game Speedrunning

Frontier LLM agents have been shown to be capable of solving increasingly complex tasks for which humans have measurable solutions. This begs the pertinent question of whether LLM agents can go beyond what humans have already solved. The ability to develop sophisticated strategies to tackle consequential problems becomes paramount as well-trodden, human-developed solutions become insufficient for problems for which we lack context or enough training data. We study agents' capability of such strategy formation through the communal practice of video game speedrunning. In speedrunning, practitioners compete to find the fastest way to complete a video game under certain conditions, and in so doing uncovering interesting unorthodox play styles that require a thorough understanding and mastery of the underlying game mechanics. We introduce SPEEDRUNBENCH, a benchmark that evaluates frontier LLM agents across 9 different games. To perform well in this benchmark, agents must repeatedly improve their strategy, reflect on their performance, exploit their gained knowledge, and reason across a long-horizon of actions to improve on an increasingly difficult problem: being faster than themselves and everyone else. Our experiments show that while frontier agents approach human world records in simple platformer games, they remain behind human performance on longer, more complex games under practical budgets. These results suggest that SPEEDRUNBENCH is a useful testbed for studying agents' strategy formation capabilities as well as being a saturation-resistant evaluation measure, as there is almost always a faster completion time waiting to be discovered.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 5

What is Missing from AI Post-Training AI: An Empirical Analysis

Large language model (LLM) agents can now post-train an LLM end-to-end. They can write code, launch training, evaluate checkpoints, and improve downstream performance, raising the prospect of AI-for-AI. We argue that this picture conflates two distinct capabilities: execution-level capability, iterating within a selected training strategy; and strategy-level capability, revising the high-level judgment as experimental evidence accumulates. Analyzing a large corpus of publicly released post-training trajectories, we find that across different tasks, the agent's training strategy is locked in at the very beginning, and the entire remaining budget is spent on local adjustments within the selected strategy. We then examine three natural explanations--missing experience, missing guidance, and insufficient reasoning--with escalating interventions. Extensive experiments show that (1) an experience-driven scaffold improves execution across the board (+12.6 points on GSM8K and +40.8 on HumanEval) but leaves the strategy static; (2) human guidance effectively redirects the initial strategy, yet the agent falls back into local adjustment loops once training starts; and (3) additional inference compute pays off on easier tasks but yields almost no gain on the hardest one. In conclusion, what agents lack is neither experience, guidance, nor reasoning compute, but a mechanism for spontaneously reevaluating their strategy during execution.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 18

Conservative Equilibrium Discovery in Offline Game-Theoretic Multiagent Reinforcement Learning

Offline learning of strategies takes data efficiency to its extreme by restricting algorithms to a fixed dataset of state-action trajectories. We consider the problem in a mixed-motive multiagent setting, where the goal is to solve a game under the offline learning constraint. We first frame this problem in terms of selecting among candidate equilibria. Since datasets may inform only a small fraction of game dynamics, it is generally infeasible in offline game-solving to even verify a proposed solution is a true equilibrium. Therefore, we consider the relative probability of low regret (i.e., closeness to equilibrium) across candidates based on the information available. Specifically, we extend Policy Space Response Oracles (PSRO), an online game-solving approach, by quantifying game dynamics uncertainty and modifying the RL objective to skew towards solutions more likely to have low regret in the true game. We further propose a novel meta-strategy solver, tailored for the offline setting, to guide strategy exploration in PSRO. Our incorporation of Conservatism principles from Offline reinforcement learning approaches for strategy Exploration gives our approach its name: COffeE-PSRO. Experiments demonstrate COffeE-PSRO's ability to extract lower-regret solutions than state-of-the-art offline approaches and reveal relationships between algorithmic components empirical game fidelity, and overall performance.

  • 2 authors
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Feb 26

Probing Outcome-Level Resemblance and Mechanism-Level Alignment in LLM Risk Decisions: Evidence from the St. Petersburg Game

LLMs can appear cautious in risk decision-making tasks, yet cautious-looking outputs do not necessarily indicate alignment with human decision-making mechanisms. We investigate this distinction using the St. Petersburg game as a controlled testbed, a classical paradox in which the expected payoff is infinite, yet humans typically report low, finite willingness to pay. We evaluate 28 LLMs with a structured prompt suite that includes the original game; controlled decision variants that perturb truncation, repeated play, numeric endowment, and occupational identity; a human-perspective prompt that asks models to reason as human decision makers; and paired comparisons between base models and their instruction-tuned counterparts. In the original game, most models generate finite bids, creating the appearance of human-like risk behavior. However, this outcome-level resemblance masks substantial mechanism-level differences. The controlled variants reveal that rather than maintaining human-like behavior seen in the original game, models often shift to conditionally and computationally rational behavior. Human-cue prompting and instruction tuning often lower bids and reduce some visible pathologies, but most mechanism-level response patterns remain largely unchanged. These findings show that behavioral alignment in risk decision-making can be surface-level: LLMs may produce human-like risk decisions without exhibiting human-consistent mechanisms. High-stakes evaluations of LLM decision-making should therefore move beyond outcome similarity and examine whether the alignment is supported by mechanism-level consistency.

  • 6 authors
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Jun 2 1

Can Large Language Models Serve as Rational Players in Game Theory? A Systematic Analysis

Game theory, as an analytical tool, is frequently utilized to analyze human behavior in social science research. With the high alignment between the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) and humans, a promising research direction is to employ LLMs as substitutes for humans in game experiments, enabling social science research. However, despite numerous empirical researches on the combination of LLMs and game theory, the capability boundaries of LLMs in game theory remain unclear. In this research, we endeavor to systematically analyze LLMs in the context of game theory. Specifically, rationality, as the fundamental principle of game theory, serves as the metric for evaluating players' behavior -- building a clear desire, refining belief about uncertainty, and taking optimal actions. Accordingly, we select three classical games (dictator game, Rock-Paper-Scissors, and ring-network game) to analyze to what extent LLMs can achieve rationality in these three aspects. The experimental results indicate that even the current state-of-the-art LLM (GPT-4) exhibits substantial disparities compared to humans in game theory. For instance, LLMs struggle to build desires based on uncommon preferences, fail to refine belief from many simple patterns, and may overlook or modify refined belief when taking actions. Therefore, we consider that introducing LLMs into game experiments in the field of social science should be approached with greater caution.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 9, 2023

Ask When It Pays: Cost-Aware Open-Ended Interaction for Instance Goal Navigation

Instance Goal Navigation (IGN) requires an embodied agent to find a specific object instance among distractors from an under-specified natural-language description. Such ambiguity often cannot be resolved from perception and language alone, making interaction with an oracle a natural mechanism for disambiguation. Prior interactive methods allow oracle queries but treat lightweight clarification and route-level guidance alike, letting agents boost success rate through repeated high-information questions rather than by resolving the underlying ambiguity efficiently. We recast interactive IGN as a cost-sensitive uncertainty-reduction problem, where the agent should ask the question whose answer provides the largest reduction in navigation uncertainty relative to its penalty. To this end, we apply an information-gain analysis on existing navigation corpora to identify which cues reduce navigation uncertainty, yielding a compact set of question types and data-derived weights. However, existing interactive navigation benchmarks do not model the cost of different question types or evaluate how efficiently agents use interaction, making them unsuitable for studying cost-sensitive interaction. Based on this taxonomy, we construct a benchmark for diagnosing interaction behavior and efficiency, together with a Weighted Success Rate metric that penalizes each query by its derived cost. We further propose a zero-shot MLLM navigator that selectively queries at each decision step only when the expected uncertainty reduction justifies the interaction cost.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 2

TMGBench: A Systematic Game Benchmark for Evaluating Strategic Reasoning Abilities of LLMs

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has accelerated their application in reasoning, with strategic reasoning drawing increasing attention. To evaluate LLMs' strategic reasoning capabilities, game theory, with its concise structure, has become a preferred approach. However, current research focuses on a limited selection of games, resulting in low coverage. Classic game scenarios risk data leakage, and existing benchmarks often lack extensibility, making them inadequate for evaluating state-of-the-art models. To address these challenges, we propose TMGBench, a benchmark with comprehensive game type coverage, novel scenarios, and flexible organization. Specifically, we incorporate all 144 game types summarized by the Robinson-Goforth topology of 2x2 games, constructed as classic games. We also employ synthetic data generation to create diverse, higher-quality scenarios through topic guidance and human inspection, referred to as story-based games. Lastly, we provide a sustainable framework for increasingly powerful LLMs by treating these games as atomic units and organizing them into more complex forms via sequential, parallel, and nested structures. Our comprehensive evaluation of mainstream LLMs covers tests on rational reasoning, robustness, Theory-of-Mind (ToM), and reasoning in complex forms. Results reveal flaws in accuracy, consistency, and varying mastery of ToM. Additionally, o1-mini, OpenAI's latest reasoning model, achieved accuracy rates of 66.6%, 60.0%, and 70.0% on sequential, parallel, and nested games, highlighting TMGBench's challenges.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 14, 2024

AlphaNIST: Emergent Assembly Skills from Binary Task Rewards

The NIST Assembly Task Board #1 remains a challenging benchmark for learning-based methods in robotic manipulation. Over short horizons, it demands precise, contact-rich control of small, tight-fitting parts. Over long horizons, it requires recovery and coordination across extended action sequences. Demonstrations, task decomposition, and dense progress rewards have enabled research advances by providing guidance on how to assemble. But how much of the strategy must be specified? The progression from AlphaGo to AlphaGo Zero showed that RL at scale can discover superhuman strategies without prescribing how to win. AlphaNIST asks whether a sparse binary task reward and task diversity admitted by this task-agnostic reward can similarly let a robot discover how to assemble. In simulation, we train a single policy from scratch across all 20 assembly tasks on the NIST Assembly Task Board #1, reaching 98.2% overall training success without demonstrations, progress shaping, scripted primitives, or per-task tuning. The framework also trains policies to complete ten assembly pairs in a single episode without a prescribed order, with task success rewarded only when all ten pairs are simultaneously complete. The learned policies discover dexterous and planning-like behaviors: choosing grasps for later assembly, using surrounding geometry to reorient parts, and preparing one part, assembling another, then returning to finish the first without an explicit planner. For videos, see our website: https://alpha-nist.github.io/

  • 15 authors
·
Oct 8