Daily Papers

Decision models such as Jev answer questions with probabilities, which are only useful if they are calibrated. Open-source reproductions rely on supervised fine-tuning plus temperature scaling, while reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) makes reasoning models overconfident. We present a working implementation of reinforcement learning for calibrated decisions (RLCD) for reasoning models: the model samples a rationale, and we score the answer distribution it commits to afterwards with a strictly proper scoring rule. A variance identity shows that scoring the mixture of several samples rewards disagreeing rationales, and that RLVR is exactly this mixture objective without its diversity term. Optimized naively, the per-rationale objective either switches reasoning off or is drowned out by policy-gradient noise, which leads to a two-stage recipe: calibrate, then reinforce. With Qwen3-1.7B on two reasoning tasks (3 seeds, paired tests), RLCD matches or beats SFT, RFT/STaR and GRPO (each temperature-scaled) in accuracy and beats all of them in selective prediction; on GSM8K answer verification a single query decides \gvTwoCovFive\% of the items at le5\% error, versus \gvGrpoCovFive\% for GRPO. When uncertainty comes from annotator disagreement, RLCD provably cannot beat cross-entropy. Code and results: https://github.com/ZimmyGao/openjev-rlcd.

Score distillation has emerged as one of the most prevalent approaches for text-to-3D asset synthesis. Essentially, score distillation updates 3D parameters by lifting and back-propagating scores averaged over different views. In this paper, we reveal that the gradient estimation in score distillation is inherent to high variance. Through the lens of variance reduction, the effectiveness of SDS and VSD can be interpreted as applications of various control variates to the Monte Carlo estimator of the distilled score. Motivated by this rethinking and based on Stein's identity, we propose a more general solution to reduce variance for score distillation, termed Stein Score Distillation (SSD). SSD incorporates control variates constructed by Stein identity, allowing for arbitrary baseline functions. This enables us to include flexible guidance priors and network architectures to explicitly optimize for variance reduction. In our experiments, the overall pipeline, dubbed SteinDreamer, is implemented by instantiating the control variate with a monocular depth estimator. The results suggest that SSD can effectively reduce the distillation variance and consistently improve visual quality for both object- and scene-level generation. Moreover, we demonstrate that SteinDreamer achieves faster convergence than existing methods due to more stable gradient updates.

Gait recognition, as a reliable biometric technology, has seen rapid development in recent years while it faces significant challenges caused by diverse clothing styles in the real world. This paper introduces BarbieGait, a synthetic gait dataset where real-world subjects are uniquely mapped into a virtual engine to simulate extensive clothing changes while preserving their gait identity information. As a pioneering work, BarbieGait provides a controllable gait data generation method, enabling the production of large datasets to validate cross-clothing issues that are difficult to verify with real-world data. However, the diversity of clothing increases intra-class variance and makes one of the biggest challenges to learning cloth-invariant features under varying clothing conditions. Therefore, we propose GaitCLIF (Gait-oriented CLoth-Invariant Feature) as a robust baseline model for cross-clothing gait recognition. Through extensive experiments, we validate that our method significantly improves cross-clothing performance on BarbieGait and the existing popular gait benchmarks. We believe that BarbieGait, with its extensive cross-clothing gait data, will further advance the capabilities of gait recognition in cross-clothing scenarios and promote progress in related research.

Multi-agent systems built on large language models are increasingly deployed in strategic policy and governance settings, where agents representing stakeholders with conflicting interests must coordinate under shared constraints. These systems typically assign role-based personas to agents, describing their motivations and objectives. Whether agents with role-based identities follow explicit payoffs or their assigned roles in strategic decision-making remains untested. Here we show that assigning role-based personas suppresses payoff-aligned behavior in four-agent strategic games, shifting equilibrium attainment by up to 90 percentage points even when agents have complete payoff information. We test a 2x2 factorial design (persona presence x payoff visibility) across four models (Qwen-7B, Qwen-32B, Llama-8B, Mistral-7B), and 53 environmental policy scenarios with two equilibria: Tragedy of the Commons, where individual payoff dominates, and Green Transition, where collective payoff dominates. With personas present, all models reach near-zero Tragedy equilibrium in the Tragedy-dominant scenarios despite complete payoff information, and 100% of equilibria correspond to Green Transition. No model reaches Tragedy equilibrium by removing personas alone; only Qwen models reach 65-90% Tragedy equilibrium rates when personas are removed, and payoffs are made explicit. Three distinct behavioral profiles emerge: Qwen shifts equilibrium selection based on framing condition, Mistral increases response variance without reaching the Tragedy equilibrium, and Llama holds near-constant across all conditions. Representational choices in multi-agent LLM systems are governance decisions: persona assignment determines which equilibrium a simulation produces, independent of the underlying incentive structure.

Machine learning demand forecasts optimize statistical accuracy yet leave excess operational volatility that inflates safety stock and amplifies the Bullwhip effect. We introduce Contextual Deconvolution (CD), a two-stage estimator that reframes demand sensing as a convex decomposition: a kernel-modulated banded operator separates transient promotion-driven shocks from a smooth structural baseline, and hierarchical partial pooling enables catalog-scale deployment without per-SKU training. The operator is data-derived, not imposed---it reduces to the identity wherever the promotional response is impulsive (most of M5, all of Favorita) and contributes only where genuine multi-day carryover exists, so the gains rest on the structural decomposition itself. Evaluating strictly out-of-sample on 30,490 M5 SKUs and 2,845 Favorita items, with calendar-aware baselines given CD's identical future calendar, we anchor the contribution on a full inventory-cost accounting: CD lowers safety stock, holding cost, and order variance but under-provisions event spikes, reducing total cost only when holding costs exceed sim20\% of stockout costs (95\% CI [17%,25%]); otherwise it is an operational-stability and inventory-capital layer, not an expected-cost minimizer. Its accuracy contribution is reliability rather than central tendency: across eleven baselines, CD attains the lowest cross-sectional dispersion of per-SKU error and mis-forecasts by more than 200\% on 0.8\% of SKUs versus 9.9--20.6\% for every baseline, ranking first on both in all four M5 draws. Because the Variance Ratio and std-based safety stock are minimized by any sufficiently smooth forecast, we treat them as diagnostics, not objectives. A supporting analysis shows the learned demand operators are non-normal, yet CD's compact parametric kernel matches their operational performance interpretably.

The paper introduces AniTalker, an innovative framework designed to generate lifelike talking faces from a single portrait. Unlike existing models that primarily focus on verbal cues such as lip synchronization and fail to capture the complex dynamics of facial expressions and nonverbal cues, AniTalker employs a universal motion representation. This innovative representation effectively captures a wide range of facial dynamics, including subtle expressions and head movements. AniTalker enhances motion depiction through two self-supervised learning strategies: the first involves reconstructing target video frames from source frames within the same identity to learn subtle motion representations, and the second develops an identity encoder using metric learning while actively minimizing mutual information between the identity and motion encoders. This approach ensures that the motion representation is dynamic and devoid of identity-specific details, significantly reducing the need for labeled data. Additionally, the integration of a diffusion model with a variance adapter allows for the generation of diverse and controllable facial animations. This method not only demonstrates AniTalker's capability to create detailed and realistic facial movements but also underscores its potential in crafting dynamic avatars for real-world applications. Synthetic results can be viewed at https://github.com/X-LANCE/AniTalker.

Mixed-precision quantization must decide which parts of a model to keep at higher precision. A common premise, shared by sensitivity-based methods such as HAWQ and CoopQ, is that the loss from quantizing a set of layers can be reconstructed from per-layer or pairwise sensitivities measured in isolation. We test this premise at the 4-bit weight-and-activation precisions now being deployed, treating the change in loss f(S) from quantizing a layer set S as a set function on the Boolean cube and analyzing it through two classical changes of basis. This analysis yields two findings. First, across configurations drawn from the deployment distribution, 85--93\% of the variance of f is explained by per-layer effects alone. Second, a monotone transform of a sum of per-layer terms reproduces f's ranking of configurations, misordering at most 2\% of pairs. We propose the coverage model f(S)=cbigl(1-prod_{iin S}(1-a_i)bigr), which reproduces the measured variance profile of f to within a few percent from its L fitted break-rates. This structure supports two predictors of a configuration's loss, each with L+1 parameters. The additive model is the optimal first-order predictor. By Parseval's identity its mean-squared error equals the variance of f left unexplained by per-layer effects, which we measure on full lattices, estimate out of sample at full-network scale, and report with every result as a certificate of how well any additive model can do. The coverage model itself is the second predictor. As allocators at matched memory, they attain the lowest KL divergence among the compared allocators on models from 30B to 355B parameters. Below four bits, the resulting allocations continue to solve code and reasoning tasks at budgets where allocations from gradient sensitivities no longer produce terminating generations.

Mechanistic interpretability is often motivated for alignment auditing, where a model's verbal explanations can be absent, incomplete, or misleading. Yet many evaluations do not control whether black-box prompting alone can recover the target behavior, so apparent gains from white-box tools may reflect elicitation rather than internal signal; we call this the elicitation confounder. We introduce Pando, a model-organism benchmark that breaks this confound via an explanation axis: models are trained to produce either faithful explanations of the true rule, no explanation, or confident but unfaithful explanations of a disjoint distractor rule. Across 720 finetuned models implementing hidden decision-tree rules, agents predict held-out model decisions from 10 labeled query-response pairs, optionally augmented with one interpretability tool output. When explanations are faithful, black-box elicitation matches or exceeds all white-box methods; when explanations are absent or misleading, gradient-based attribution improves accuracy by 3-5 percentage points, and relevance patching, RelP, gives the largest gains, while logit lens, sparse autoencoders, and circuit tracing provide no reliable benefit. Variance decomposition suggests gradients track decision computation, which fields causally drive the output, whereas other readouts are dominated by task representation, biases toward field identity and value. We release all models, code, and evaluation infrastructure.

Large language models are increasingly used as decision aids whose probability judgments shape downstream choices. Whether those judgments carry a systematic directional tilt has been hard to detect: calibration metrics aggregate unsigned errors, and naturalistic uncertainty offers no ground-truth probability. When an LLM rates a startup's success at 70% but its failure at 15%, the missing 15 points expose a distortion no aggregate score flags. We introduce OptimismBench, which detects directional bias with inverted pairs: each scenario elicits both P(success) and P(failure), and asymmetry between the two framings yields a signed bias score without ground truth. Across 16 models from 8 providers, fourteen are optimistic; pessimism appears only in Anthropic's frontier tier. Eleven matched base-versus-chat pairs across four families show post-training sets the sign of the bias, with opposite shifts in different families. The pattern survives prompt, temperature, perspective, and self-debiasing ablations. A seventeen-model six-language comparison further shows model identity dominates language, with inter-model variance at 4.7x inter-language variance. We release 3,870 items across 10 languages for per-model directional-bias auditing. When alignment makes a model more helpful, it also tilts its probabilities; downstream pipelines inherit the tilt by default.

We study low-precision computation of C=AB with both factors quantized. We derive an exact finite-dimensional identity for the expected squared product error under independent, zero-mean entrywise errors with known variance fields; it holds exactly for non-overloading subtractive dither and for independent stochastic rounding, and we empirically assess deterministic round-to-nearest (RTN). Using the product-preserving equivalence AB=(AT)(T^{-1}B), we formulate contraction-gauge preconditioning: jointly choosing a factor representation and its sharing pattern before quantization. Preconditioning can reduce product error but may require extra transformed, quantized copies of the opposite operand: a shared transform needs one copy, a block-specific transform up to one per block. Within the bounded family of positive diagonal gauges (folds), a geometric program computes a globally optimal shared fold and a linear program decides whether the identity fold is already optimal. For other families we derive computable selection statistics -- tail index for scaling, profile spread for partitioning, coherence and weighted-Gram energy for rotations, slice-energy covariance for hierarchy depth -- with upper bounds for ranking heuristic candidates. Across twelve linear products from a trained three-block image classifier, median within-product rank correlations between dither-model predictions and deterministic-RTN errors are 0.937 at 8 bits and 0.918 at 4 bits. The GP fold cuts held-out product error over the identity fold by 18.0% (8-bit) and 20.5% (4-bit) in geometric mean, beats a SmoothQuant-style grid baseline at both precisions and on ten of twelve products, and lowers composed logit MSE by 15.4% and 26.4%. We thus provide exact stochastic product-error accounting, certified selection within the diagonal family, and a common objective for evaluating reusable transform candidates under RTN.

Recent work has demonstrated the curse of depth in large language models (LLMs), where later layers contribute less to learning and representation than earlier layers. Such under-utilization is linked to the accumulated growth of variance in Pre-Layer Normalization, which can push deep blocks toward near-identity behavior. In this paper, we demonstrate that, sparsity, beyond enabling efficiency, acts as a regulator of variance propagation and thereby improves depth utilization. Our investigation covers two sources of sparsity: (i) implicit sparsity, which emerges from training and data conditions, including weight sparsity induced by weight decay and attention sparsity induced by long context inputs; and (ii) explicit sparsity, which is enforced by architectural design, including key/value-sharing sparsity in Grouped-Query Attention and expert-activation sparsity in Mixtureof-Experts. Our claim is thoroughly supported by controlled depth-scaling experiments and targeted layer effectiveness interventions. Across settings, we observe a consistent relationship: sparsity improves layer utilization by reducing output variance and promoting functional differentiation. We eventually distill our findings into a practical rule-of-thumb recipe for training deptheffective LLMs, yielding a notable 4.6% accuracy improvement on downstream tasks. Our results reveal sparsity, arising naturally from standard design choices, as a key yet previously overlooked mechanism for effective depth scaling in LLMs. Code is available at https://github.com/pUmpKin-Co/SparsityAndCoD.

Recent years have witnessed the strong power of 3D generation models, which offer a new level of creative flexibility by allowing users to guide the 3D content generation process through a single image or natural language. However, it remains challenging for existing 3D generation methods to create subject-driven 3D content across diverse prompts. In this paper, we introduce a novel 3D customization method, dubbed Make-Your-3D that can personalize high-fidelity and consistent 3D content from only a single image of a subject with text description within 5 minutes. Our key insight is to harmonize the distributions of a multi-view diffusion model and an identity-specific 2D generative model, aligning them with the distribution of the desired 3D subject. Specifically, we design a co-evolution framework to reduce the variance of distributions, where each model undergoes a process of learning from the other through identity-aware optimization and subject-prior optimization, respectively. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can produce high-quality, consistent, and subject-specific 3D content with text-driven modifications that are unseen in subject image.

In this paper, we introduce the Curse of Depth, a concept that highlights, explains, and addresses the recent observation in modern Large Language Models(LLMs) where nearly half of the layers are less effective than expected. We first confirm the wide existence of this phenomenon across the most popular families of LLMs such as Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Qwen. Our analysis, theoretically and empirically, identifies that the underlying reason for the ineffectiveness of deep layers in LLMs is the widespread usage of Pre-Layer Normalization (Pre-LN). While Pre-LN stabilizes the training of Transformer LLMs, its output variance exponentially grows with the model depth, which undesirably causes the derivative of the deep Transformer blocks to be an identity matrix, and therefore barely contributes to the training. To resolve this training pitfall, we propose LayerNorm Scaling, which scales the variance of output of the layer normalization inversely by the square root of its depth. This simple modification mitigates the output variance explosion of deeper Transformer layers, improving their contribution. Our experimental results, spanning model sizes from 130M to 1B, demonstrate that LayerNorm Scaling significantly enhances LLM pre-training performance compared to Pre-LN. Moreover, this improvement seamlessly carries over to supervised fine-tuning. All these gains can be attributed to the fact that LayerNorm Scaling enables deeper layers to contribute more effectively during training.

Many deployments must compare candidate language models for safety before a labeled benchmark exists for the relevant language, sector, or regulatory regime. We formalize this setting as benchmarkless comparative safety scoring and specify the contract under which a scenario-based audit can be interpreted as deployment evidence. Scores are valid only under a fixed scenario pack, rubric, auditor, judge, sampling configuration, and rerun budget. Because no labels are available, we replace ground-truth agreement with an instrumental-validity chain: responsiveness to a controlled safe-versus-abliterated contrast, dominance of target-driven variance over auditor and judge artifacts, and stability across reruns. We instantiate the chain in SimpleAudit, a local-first scoring instrument, and validate it on a Norwegian safety pack. Safe and abliterated targets separate with AUROC values between 0.89 and 1.00, target identity is the dominant variance component (η^2 approx 0.52), and severity profiles stabilize by ten reruns. Applying the same chain to Petri shows that it admits both tools. The substantial differences arise upstream of the chain, in claim-contract enforcement and deployment fit. A Norwegian public-sector procurement case comparing Borealis and Gemma 3 demonstrates the resulting evidence in practice: the safer model depends on scenario category and risk measure. Consequently, scores, matched deltas, critical rates, uncertainty, and the auditor and judge used must be reported together rather than collapsed into a single ranking.

Diffusion models achieve superior generation quality but suffer from slow generation speed due to the iterative nature of denoising. In contrast, consistency models, a new generative family, achieve competitive performance with significantly faster sampling. These models are trained either through consistency distillation, which leverages pretrained diffusion models, or consistency training/tuning directly from raw data. In this work, we propose a novel framework for understanding consistency models by modeling the denoising process of the diffusion model as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and framing consistency model training as the value estimation through Temporal Difference~(TD) Learning. More importantly, this framework allows us to analyze the limitations of current consistency training/tuning strategies. Built upon Easy Consistency Tuning (ECT), we propose Stable Consistency Tuning (SCT), which incorporates variance-reduced learning using the score identity. SCT leads to significant performance improvements on benchmarks such as CIFAR-10 and ImageNet-64. On ImageNet-64, SCT achieves 1-step FID 2.42 and 2-step FID 1.55, a new SoTA for consistency models.

Speaker anonymization aims to conceal cues to speaker identity while preserving linguistic content. Current machine learning based approaches require substantial computational resources, hindering real-time streaming applications. To address these concerns, we propose a streaming model that achieves speaker anonymization with low latency. The system is trained in an end-to-end autoencoder fashion using a lightweight content encoder that extracts HuBERT-like information, a pretrained speaker encoder that extract speaker identity, and a variance encoder that injects pitch and energy information. These three disentangled representations are fed to a decoder that re-synthesizes the speech signal. We present evaluation results from two implementations of our system, a full model that achieves a latency of 230ms, and a lite version (0.1x in size) that further reduces latency to 66ms while maintaining state-of-the-art performance in naturalness, intelligibility, and privacy preservation.

We analyze downstream courtroom governance in Philadelphia eviction cases using 755,004 Municipal Court landlord--tenant records filed from 1969 through 2022. Post-filing case processing is organized by repeated courtroom relationships, judge and tenant-attorney regimes, reusable agreement templates, and repeated team-property units. Among both-represented, both-attorney-named cases, 58.2% involve a plaintiff-side and tenant-side attorney pair that had appeared against one another in the prior year, and greater prior pair exposure predicts lower default, higher judgment-by-agreement, and higher served-writ rates. Judge-linked cases display statistically distinct baseline outcome, continuance, fee, and award regimes; tenant-attorney identity explains meaningful variance in both case outcomes and agreement terms. Settlement text is highly standardized: reusable templates explain strictness, waiver, lockout-trigger, payment-plan, deadline, and time-is-essence language far more strongly than raw attorney identity. Monetary burden concentrates in repeated plaintiff-attorney-property units. Assignment-cell support and balance audits indicate that judge-linked evidence reflects institutional heterogeneity rather than a clean judge lottery, and judge--triad interactions are not estimable in this docket. Eviction court emerges as a repeated institutional field that organizes bargaining, text, debt, and enforcement after cases enter the courtroom pipeline.

Text-to-image person re-identification (ReID) aims to search for images containing a person of interest using textual descriptions. However, due to the significant modality gap and the large intra-class variance in textual descriptions, text-to-image ReID remains a challenging problem. Accordingly, in this paper, we propose a Semantically Self-Aligned Network (SSAN) to handle the above problems. First, we propose a novel method that automatically extracts semantically aligned part-level features from the two modalities. Second, we design a multi-view non-local network that captures the relationships between body parts, thereby establishing better correspondences between body parts and noun phrases. Third, we introduce a Compound Ranking (CR) loss that makes use of textual descriptions for other images of the same identity to provide extra supervision, thereby effectively reducing the intra-class variance in textual features. Finally, to expedite future research in text-to-image ReID, we build a new database named ICFG-PEDES. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SSAN outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by significant margins. Both the new ICFG-PEDES database and the SSAN code are available at https://github.com/zifyloo/SSAN.

We describe ufakzeka-1, a 151M-parameter (182M with embeddings) decoder-only Turkish language model pretrained from scratch on 13.5B tokens of openly licensed text and instruction-tuned for chat, at a total cost of about \$286 in cloud GPU, API and notebook time. The contribution is not the model's capability, which is what a model this size can be expected to have, but the record of building and measuring it: a Turkish byte-level tokenizer at 1.77 tokens per word, a three-stage pretraining schedule, a post-training mixture of openly licensed and generated data, and an evaluation battery of release gates, a rule-checked sweep of 5,508 conversations, judged conversations and hand tests, all with prompts held out from the training data, enforced by decontamination inside the data build and by a checked-in invariant script we run before each build. We report three findings that we believe transfer to other small-model efforts: a safety gate that had been "fixed" with training data written from its own questions read 64/64 while the honest figure was 34/64; training-seed variance was as large as the spread across every recipe we tried, so single-seed comparisons at this scale are uninformative; and data rounds repaired only what was absent from the data, while identity tracking over long context and multi-turn arithmetic did not move across any data change we tried, which we read as limits of the model size rather than gaps in the data, a reading the next, larger model will test. Weights, the data recipe, the evaluation code and the spend ledger are released under Apache-2.0.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly integrated into daily applications, it is essential to ensure they operate fairly across diverse user demographics. In this work, we show that LLMs suffer from personalization bias, where their performance is impacted when they are personalized to a user's identity. We quantify personalization bias by evaluating the performance of LLMs along two axes - safety and utility. We measure safety by examining how benign LLM responses are to unsafe prompts with and without personalization. We measure utility by evaluating the LLM's performance on various tasks, including general knowledge, mathematical abilities, programming, and reasoning skills. We find that various LLMs, ranging from open-source models like Llama (Touvron et al., 2023) and Mistral (Jiang et al., 2023) to API-based ones like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4o (Ouyang et al., 2022), exhibit significant variance in performance in terms of safety-utility trade-offs depending on the user's identity. Finally, we discuss several strategies to mitigate personalization bias using preference tuning and prompt-based defenses.

Recent innovations on hardware (e.g. Nvidia A100) have motivated learning N:M structured sparsity masks from scratch for fast model inference. However, state-of-the-art learning recipes in this regime (e.g. SR-STE) are proposed for non-adaptive optimizers like momentum SGD, while incurring non-trivial accuracy drop for Adam-trained models like attention-based LLMs. In this paper, we first demonstrate such gap origins from poorly estimated second moment (i.e. variance) in Adam states given by the masked weights. We conjecture that learning N:M masks with Adam should take the critical regime of variance estimation into account. In light of this, we propose STEP, an Adam-aware recipe that learns N:M masks with two phases: first, STEP calculates a reliable variance estimate (precondition phase) and subsequently, the variance remains fixed and is used as a precondition to learn N:M masks (mask-learning phase). STEP automatically identifies the switching point of two phases by dynamically sampling variance changes over the training trajectory and testing the sample concentration. Empirically, we evaluate STEP and other baselines such as ASP and SR-STE on multiple tasks including CIFAR classification, machine translation and LLM fine-tuning (BERT-Base, GPT-2). We show STEP mitigates the accuracy drop of baseline recipes and is robust to aggressive structured sparsity ratios.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation σ^2 mapsto κ(σ^2), explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: anisotropy across eigenmodes, inhomogeneity across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

Large multimodal reasoning models have achieved rapid progress, but their advancement is constrained by two major limitations: the absence of open, large-scale, high-quality long chain-of-thought (CoT) data, and the instability of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in post-training. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), the standard framework for RL fine-tuning, is prone to gradient vanishing when reward variance is low, which weakens optimization signals and impairs convergence. This work makes three contributions: (1) We propose Variance-Aware Sampling (VAS), a data selection strategy guided by Variance Promotion Score (VPS) that combines outcome variance and trajectory diversity to promote reward variance and stabilize policy optimization. (2) We release large-scale, carefully curated resources containing ~1.6M long CoT cold-start data and ~15k RL QA pairs, designed to ensure quality, difficulty, and diversity, along with a fully reproducible end-to-end training codebase. (3) We open-source a family of multimodal reasoning models in multiple scales, establishing standardized baselines for the community. Experiments across mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both the curated data and the proposed VAS. Comprehensive ablation studies and analyses provide further insight into the contributions of each component. In addition, we theoretically establish that reward variance lower-bounds the expected policy gradient magnitude, with VAS serving as a practical mechanism to realize this guarantee. Our code, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/LengSicong/MMR1.

Run the same LLM agent on the same task twice: do you get the same behavior? We find the answer is often no. In a study of 3,000 agent runs across three models (Llama 3.1 70B, GPT-4o, and Claude Sonnet 4.5) on HotpotQA, we observe that ReAct-style agents produce 2.0--4.2 distinct action sequences per 10 runs on average, even with identical inputs. More importantly, this variance predicts failure: tasks with consistent behavior (leq2 unique paths) achieve 80--92% accuracy, while highly inconsistent tasks (geq6 unique paths) achieve only 25--60%, a 32--55 percentage point gap depending on model. We trace variance to early decisions: 69% of divergence occurs at step 2, the first search query. Our results suggest that monitoring behavioral consistency during execution could enable early error detection and improve agent reliability.

We study nonlinear filtering with misspecified initial distributions and dynamics, but a correctly specified observation model. Observations are treated as a random process generated by the true model, rather than as fixed realizations, and both the correct filter and the misspecified filter are analyzed under this common observation law. Our main result is a Bayesian total variation balance identity for the expected change in total variation distance under a Bayesian update: a covariance term minus a non-negative remainder. The identity characterizes conditional and averaged update non-expansivity. Combined with prediction contraction, it yields finite-time bounds separating the initialization error from accumulated dynamical discrepancies, while allowing expansive updates. When the averaged updates are non-expansive and a uniform joint prediction--update coefficient is less than one, a persistent dynamical misspecification yields an asymptotic error bound proportional to the one-step discrepancy. When the conditional updates are non-expansive, we characterize an accumulated joint contraction that implies almost-sure and \(L^1\) coalescence of the true and misspecified filters. Finally, we verify update non-expansivity for scalar Gaussian predictive laws under a variance-ordering condition and, separately, derive explicit prediction contraction bounds for truncated kernels and bounded transition functions with elliptically symmetric noise.

The probabilistic reading of the cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) has a long industry lineage. Falkenstein, Boral and Carty (2000) state, in discrete form, that the default rate at a score percentile equals the portfolio average rate times the local slope of the power curve; van der Burgt (2008, 2019) formalizes this as the continuous identity p(Dmid x) = p_D, dy/dx and imports the continuous form as a working fact; Tasche (2009) analyzes the resulting calibration method; Voloshyn and Voloshyn (2023) substitute Bayes' theorem, f(xmid D)=p(Dmid x) f(x)/p_D, into the area integral and write the Gini as a functional of the calibration curve. The slope itself is already in the lineage (van der Burgt's dy/dx is the ratio of the two cumulative differentials), but it enters as a cited working fact, never as Bayes' theorem. We make that identification explicit and draw out its consequences. First, the CAP slope is Bayes' theorem in cumulative coordinates: the standardized PD it recovers is the posterior probability rescaled by the prior. The weight of the paper then falls on two results this reading unlocks. The odds form places the weight of evidence (the log of the likelihood ratio, i.e. the Bayes factor) and the information value inside one geometry (the weight of evidence at a point is the log of the ratio of the "bad" and "good" CAP slopes). The accuracy ratio, Somers' D_{xy}, and the Gini (2A-1)/(1-p_D) are revealed as one number computed three ways. Run in comparison mode (realized outcomes against model claims), the same identity recovers the reliability diagram in cumulative coordinates, with the sign of the gap between the empirical and model-implied Gini coefficients as a calibration diagnostic. A worked five-band example carries every identity in discrete form, and a kernel-density example extends them to the continuous case.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) generate intermediate reasoning traces before producing final answers, yielding strong gains on multi-step and mathematical tasks. Yet aligning LRMs with human preferences, a crucial prerequisite for model deployment, remains underexplored. The statistically correct objective for preference alignment requires marginalizing over reasoning traces, but this computation is intractable in practice. A common workaround optimizes a single sampled trajectory, which introduces substantial gradient variance from stochastic trace sampling. To address this challenge, we frame preference optimization for LRMs through the lens of the bias--variance trade-off and propose Bias--Variance Optimized Preference Optimization (BVPO), a simple, drop-in method that mixes two gradient estimators: a high-variance trace-based estimator and a low-variance empty-trace estimator obtained by disabling reasoning trace generation. Our theory shows that BVPO strictly reduces trace-induced variance for any nontrivial mixture, provides a closed-form choice of the mixing weight that minimizes mean-squared error relative to the true marginal gradient, and under standard smoothness and step-size conditions, tightens classical convergence bounds for stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, BVPO improves alignment over the best baseline by up to 7.8 points on AlpacaEval~2 and 6.8 points on Arena-Hard. Despite being trained only on general conversational data, BVPO also boosts reasoning performance for base models by up to 4.0 points on the average of six math reasoning benchmarks. These results identify variance from trace sampling as a key bottleneck and demonstrate that directly optimizing the bias--variance trade-off yields more stable training and stronger overall performance.

Portfolio risk assessment ordinarily relies on reliable estimates of cross-asset return covariances, which are difficult to obtain in short, high-dimensional panels. We show that firm-level distribution-valued characteristics can instead provide one-sided certificates of portfolio risk. Under maintained links from characteristics to systematic exposures and from exposures to returns, multi-firm Wasserstein-2 dispersion yields a sharp upper bound on systematic portfolio variance and a corresponding bound for standardized returns. A weighted pairwise relaxation produces an objective that is convex under a checkable condition and requires marginal volatility scales but no cross-asset return covariances. With zero firm-specific slack, the common-map scale changes the certified variance reduction but not the normalized allocation, which depends only on observed information geometry. In a 52-firm panel from 2018-2022, an allocation constructed from Qwen3-Embedding-8B news representations lies between the 0.69th and 1.33rd in-sample variance percentiles across four prespecified capped portfolio populations; equal risk weighting lies between the 21.1st and 28.6th percentiles. The lower in-sample variance ranking relative to equal risk also appears across the reported frozen language-model representations. The framework therefore distribution-valued firm information into a coherent risk bound and an implementable allocation rule constructed without cross-asset return covariances.

Variances in ad impression outcomes across demographic groups are increasingly considered to be potentially indicative of algorithmic bias in personalized ads systems. While there are many definitions of fairness that could be applicable in the context of personalized systems, we present a framework which we call the Variance Reduction System (VRS) for achieving more equitable outcomes in Meta's ads systems. VRS seeks to achieve a distribution of impressions with respect to selected protected class (PC) attributes that more closely aligns the demographics of an ad's eligible audience (a function of advertiser targeting criteria) with the audience who sees that ad, in a privacy-preserving manner. We first define metrics to quantify fairness gaps in terms of ad impression variances with respect to PC attributes including gender and estimated race. We then present the VRS for re-ranking ads in an impression variance-aware manner. We evaluate VRS via extensive simulations over different parameter choices and study the effect of the VRS on the chosen fairness metric. We finally present online A/B testing results from applying VRS to Meta's ads systems, concluding with a discussion of future work. We have deployed the VRS to all users in the US for housing ads, resulting in significant improvement in our fairness metric. VRS is the first large-scale deployed framework for pursuing fairness for multiple PC attributes in online advertising.

Feature embeddings acquired from pretrained models are widely used in medical applications of deep learning to assess the characteristics of datasets; e.g. to determine the quality of synthetic, generated medical images. The Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) is one popular synthetic image quality metric that relies on the assumption that the characteristic features of the data can be detected and encoded by an InceptionV3 model pretrained on ImageNet1K (natural images). While it is widely known that this makes it less effective for applications involving medical images, the extent to which the metric fails to capture meaningful differences in image characteristics is not obviously known. Here, we use Monte Carlo dropout to compute the predictive variance in the FID as well as a supplemental estimate of the predictive variance in the feature embedding model's latent representations. We show that the magnitudes of the predictive variances considered exhibit varying degrees of correlation with the extent to which test inputs (ImageNet1K validation set augmented at various strengths, and other external datasets) are out-of-distribution relative to its training data, providing some insight into the effectiveness of their use as indicators of the trustworthiness of the FID.

In this paper, we propose a dimensionless anomaly detection method for multivariate streams. Our method is independent of the unit of measurement for the different stream channels, therefore dimensionless. We first propose the variance norm, a generalisation of Mahalanobis distance to handle infinite-dimensional feature space and singular empirical covariance matrix rigorously. We then combine the variance norm with the path signature, an infinite collection of iterated integrals that provide global features of streams, to propose SigMahaKNN, a method for anomaly detection on (multivariate) streams. We show that SigMahaKNN is invariant to stream reparametrisation, stream concatenation and has a graded discrimination power depending on the truncation level of the path signature. We implement SigMahaKNN as an open-source software, and perform extensive numerical experiments, showing significantly improved anomaly detection on streams compared to isolation forest and local outlier factors in applications ranging from language analysis, hand-writing analysis, ship movement paths analysis and univariate time-series analysis.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

We study estimation and clustering in Gaussian mixture models under variance misspecification. Observations are generated with true variance σ^2, while the component means are estimated using a likelihood with variance τ^2, yielding a family of mismatched likelihood functions parameterized by the ratio ρ=τ/σ. We show that the interplay between ρ and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) induces a sharp phase diagram. Under correct specification (ρ=1), maximum likelihood recovers the true means, independently of the SNR. However, once the model is misspecified, two different regimes emerge. Under under-smoothing (ρ<1), the estimated Gaussian means are displaced from the truth, and in low SNR this discrepancy grows as the SNR decreases: for every fixed ρ<1, the squared error scales as SNR^{-1}. Under over-smoothing (ρ>1), the fitted likelihood blurs the cluster separation, causing distinct component means to collapse towards the overall mixture center once ρ^2 exceeds a threshold of the form 1 + λ,SNR, where λ depends on the geometry of the true means. We further show that the hard assignment objective arises as the limit τto 0 of the same mismatched likelihood family, and derive corresponding low- and high-SNR results for hard-assignment mean estimation and latent-label recovery. Furthermore, in low SNR, Bayes-optimal clustering is close to random guessing, and the hard-assignment target remains far from the true means. These results show that in low-SNR applications, even mild variance misspecification or hard-assignment procedures can induce substantial bias, whereas in high SNR these effects are largely absent.

Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples that mislead the models with imperceptible perturbations. Though adversarial attacks have achieved incredible success rates in the white-box setting, most existing adversaries often exhibit weak transferability in the black-box setting, especially under the scenario of attacking models with defense mechanisms. In this work, we propose a new method called variance tuning to enhance the class of iterative gradient based attack methods and improve their attack transferability. Specifically, at each iteration for the gradient calculation, instead of directly using the current gradient for the momentum accumulation, we further consider the gradient variance of the previous iteration to tune the current gradient so as to stabilize the update direction and escape from poor local optima. Empirical results on the standard ImageNet dataset demonstrate that our method could significantly improve the transferability of gradient-based adversarial attacks. Besides, our method could be used to attack ensemble models or be integrated with various input transformations. Incorporating variance tuning with input transformations on iterative gradient-based attacks in the multi-model setting, the integrated method could achieve an average success rate of 90.1% against nine advanced defense methods, improving the current best attack performance significantly by 85.1% . Code is available at https://github.com/JHL-HUST/VT.

Federated learning and gossip learning are emerging methodologies designed to mitigate data privacy concerns by retaining training data on client devices and exclusively sharing locally-trained machine learning (ML) models with others. The primary distinction between the two lies in their approach to model aggregation: federated learning employs a centralized parameter server, whereas gossip learning adopts a fully decentralized mechanism, enabling direct model exchanges among nodes. This decentralized nature often positions gossip learning as less efficient compared to federated learning. Both methodologies involve a critical step: computing a representation of received ML models and integrating this representation into the existing model. Conventionally, this representation is derived by averaging the received models, exemplified by the FedAVG algorithm. Our findings suggest that this averaging approach inherently introduces a potential delay in model convergence. We identify the underlying cause and refer to it as the "vanishing variance" problem, where averaging across uncorrelated ML models undermines the optimal variance established by the Xavier weight initialization. Unlike federated learning where the central server ensures model correlation, and unlike traditional gossip learning which circumvents this problem through model partitioning and sampling, our research introduces a variance-corrected model averaging algorithm. This novel algorithm preserves the optimal variance needed during model averaging, irrespective of network topology or non-IID data distributions. Our extensive simulation results demonstrate that our approach enables gossip learning to achieve convergence efficiency comparable to that of federated learning.

This paper discusses the weight parametrization of two standard 1-Lipschitz network architectures, the Almost-Orthogonal-Layers (AOL) and the SDP-based Lipschitz Layers (SLL). It examines their impact on initialization for deep 1-Lipschitz feedforward networks, and discusses underlying issues surrounding this initialization. These networks are mainly used in certifiably robust classification applications to combat adversarial attacks by limiting the impact of perturbations on the classification output. Exact and upper bounds for the parameterized weight variance were calculated assuming a standard Normal distribution initialization; additionally, an upper bound was computed assuming a Generalized Normal Distribution, generalizing the proof for Uniform, Laplace, and Normal distribution weight initializations. It is demonstrated that the weight variance holds no bearing on the output variance distribution and that only the dimension of the weight matrices matters. Additionally, this paper demonstrates that the weight initialization always causes deep 1-Lipschitz networks to decay to zero.

Benchmark contamination is diagnosed with n-gram overlap, likelihood-based membership inference, or canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at release. A recent alternative reads it off a linear probe on internal activations. We show the natural way to do this does not work, specify one that survives measurement, then find that the correction making it work carries more variance than the null it is tested against. The protocol reports a zero-sum contrast on the depth profile of probe accuracy, recentred on a level-matched placebo baseline, tested against a label-permutation null, with the reference set twice the size of the suspect set. Each choice replaces a simpler alternative we rejected on measurement. Reporting the level of excess separability rather than its shape makes the false positive rate track the size of the analyst's own control set, 0.03 to 0.99 under a true null. Contrasting against a flat depth profile rejects a true null 0.72 of the time when surface decodability rises with depth, and loses all power when it falls. On real transformers the protocol fails a test the simulations did not pose. The recentring subtracts an estimate, and the permutation null holds it fixed. Re-estimated across split seeds on four audits of contaminated checkpoints, its standard deviation is 1.30 to 1.56 times the null's own in every arm: what is subtracted to remove a bias is more variable than what it corrects. The one nominally significant result, p = 0.0075, becomes 0.0745 once that variance is propagated, and no verdict is issued. The simulations missed this because their surface key is the covariate driving item variation; on real text it is a proxy, and degrading key quality in simulation reproduces it. We add a companion measurement and a widened null. No arm shows contamination.

Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this characterization is incomplete: while MFVI underestimates the variance in parameter space, it can overestimate the predictive variance compared to the exact posterior. We show that if the MFVI posterior underestimates predictive variances in some directions, it necessarily overestimates them in others. Crucially, this overestimation occurs in directions where the training data concentrates. This leads to the surprising result that, for a test point drawn from the training distribution, MFVI's expected predictive variance exceeds that of the exact posterior. We demonstrate a pathological case of this effect, where the MFVI posterior fails to reduce predictive variance compared to the prior on in distribution data. We connect these results to the Cold Posterior Effect, arguing that varying the temperature can correct this overestimation, yielding predictions closer to those of the exact posterior. We validate our theory on synthetic and real-world regression tasks.

While flow matching is elegant, its reliance on single-sample conditional velocities leads to high-variance training targets that destabilize optimization and slow convergence. By explicitly characterizing this variance, we identify 1) a high-variance regime near the prior, where optimization is challenging, and 2) a low-variance regime near the data distribution, where conditional and marginal velocities nearly coincide. Leveraging this insight, we propose Stable Velocity, a unified framework that improves both training and sampling. For training, we introduce Stable Velocity Matching (StableVM), an unbiased variance-reduction objective, along with Variance-Aware Representation Alignment (VA-REPA), which adaptively strengthen auxiliary supervision in the low-variance regime. For inference, we show that dynamics in the low-variance regime admit closed-form simplifications, enabling Stable Velocity Sampling (StableVS), a finetuning-free acceleration. Extensive experiments on ImageNet 256times256 and large pretrained text-to-image and text-to-video models, including SD3.5, Flux, Qwen-Image, and Wan2.2, demonstrate consistent improvements in training efficiency and more than 2times faster sampling within the low-variance regime without degrading sample quality. Our code is available at https://github.com/linYDTHU/StableVelocity.

Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events. This paper proposes Neural Tangent Kernel-based uncertainty quantification (NTK-UQ) using last-layer empirical features. Theoretical analysis predicts that UQ quality is architecture-dependent through two mechanisms. First, a variance collapse mechanism explains when UQ fails: when the eigenvalue truncation rank approaches the effective rank of the feature space, the GP correction term consumes nearly all prior variance, destroying discrimination between tropical cyclones and routine conditions; architectures with concentrated spectra (spectral operators) require aggressive truncation (k leq 10), while attention-based models tolerate full-rank computation. Second, decomposition performance depends on the non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed structure of extreme weather: Independent Component Analysis exploits higher-order statistics (kurtosis, negentropy) to isolate heavy-tailed extreme-event features, achieving higher discrimination than singular value decomposition, which captures only second-order variance. A data-driven selection rule chooses ICA or SVD from the feature eigenspectrum concentration ratio, correctly prescribing the superior decomposition for all four evaluated architectures. Compared to split conformal prediction (the natural post-hoc baseline), NTK-UQ achieves 31--37\% sharper prediction intervals at 90\% coverage, and uniquely produces adaptive intervals that scale with extreme event severity, which conformal prediction cannot achieve by construction. The framework requires no retraining; inference-time uncertainty requires only a single matrix-vector product per sample.

Prompt optimization improves language models without updating their weights by searching for a better system prompt, but its effectiveness varies widely across tasks. We study what makes a task amenable to prompt optimization. We show that the reward variance across different system prompts can be decomposed into two components: variance among responses, which captures generation stochasticity, and variance among system prompts, which captures differences in system prompt quality. Prompt optimization succeeds when variance among system prompts is sufficiently large, but fails when variance among responses dominates the variance of the system prompts. Surprisingly, we further show that scaling to more user prompts can hurt optimization by reducing variance among system prompts, especially on heterogeneous datasets where different user prompts favor different system prompts. Motivated by this insight, we propose p1, a simple user prompt filtering method that selects a small subset of user prompts with high variance across candidate system prompts. This subset of user prompts allows one to distinguish a good system prompt from a bad one, making system optimization easier. Experiments on reasoning benchmarks show that p1 substantially improves prompt optimization over training on the full dataset and outperforms strong baselines such as GEPA. Notably, training on only two prompts from AIME 24 yields a system prompt that generalizes well to other reasoning benchmarks.

Creating content for a specific identity (ID) has shown significant interest in the field of generative models. In the field of text-to-image generation (T2I), subject-driven content generation has achieved great progress with the ID in the images controllable. However, extending it to video generation is not well explored. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective subject identity controllable video generation framework, termed Video Custom Diffusion (VCD). With a specified subject ID defined by a few images, VCD reinforces the identity information extraction and injects frame-wise correlation at the initialization stage for stable video outputs with identity preserved to a large extent. To achieve this, we propose three novel components that are essential for high-quality ID preservation: 1) an ID module trained with the cropped identity by prompt-to-segmentation to disentangle the ID information and the background noise for more accurate ID token learning; 2) a text-to-video (T2V) VCD module with 3D Gaussian Noise Prior for better inter-frame consistency and 3) video-to-video (V2V) Face VCD and Tiled VCD modules to deblur the face and upscale the video for higher resolution. Despite its simplicity, we conducted extensive experiments to verify that VCD is able to generate stable and high-quality videos with better ID over the selected strong baselines. Besides, due to the transferability of the ID module, VCD is also working well with finetuned text-to-image models available publically, further improving its usability. The codes are available at https://github.com/Zhen-Dong/Magic-Me.

We introduce novel variants of momentum by incorporating the variance of the stochastic loss function. The variance characterizes the confidence or uncertainty of the local features of the averaged loss surface across the i.i.d. subsets of the training data defined by the mini-batches. We show two applications of the gradient of the variance of the loss function. First, as a bias to the conventional momentum update to encourage conformity of the local features of the loss function (e.g. local minima) across mini-batches to improve generalization and the cumulative training progress made per epoch. Second, as an alternative direction for "exploration" in the parameter space, especially, for non-convex objectives, that exploits both the optimistic and pessimistic views of the loss function in the face of uncertainty. We also introduce a novel data-driven stochastic regularization technique through the parameter update rule that is model-agnostic and compatible with arbitrary architectures. We further establish connections to probability distributions over loss functions and the REINFORCE policy gradient update with baseline in RL. Finally, we incorporate the new variants of momentum proposed into Adam, and empirically show that our methods improve the rate of convergence of training based on our experiments on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

Deep learning methods for unsupervised registration often rely on objectives that assume a uniform noise level across the spatial domain (e.g. mean-squared error loss), but noise distributions are often heteroscedastic and input-dependent in real-world medical images. Thus, this assumption often leads to degradation in registration performance, mainly due to the undesired influence of noise-induced outliers. To mitigate this, we propose a framework for heteroscedastic image uncertainty estimation that can adaptively reduce the influence of regions with high uncertainty during unsupervised registration. The framework consists of a collaborative training strategy for the displacement and variance estimators, and a novel image fidelity weighting scheme utilizing signal-to-noise ratios. Our approach prevents the model from being driven away by spurious gradients caused by the simplified homoscedastic assumption, leading to more accurate displacement estimation. To illustrate its versatility and effectiveness, we tested our framework on two representative registration architectures across three medical image datasets. Our method consistently outperforms baselines and produces sensible uncertainty estimates. The code is publicly available at https://voldemort108x.github.io/hetero_uncertainty/.

Equivariance theory predicts that an architectural symmetry prior reduces sample complexity by a factor of |G|; this is widely cited but rarely measured as a scaling law with controls that separate the prior from its confounds. On a controlled C_n-symmetric task, we report three findings. First, a wrong-group control with identical orbit size and matched compute is worse than no constraint (joint pairwise CI [+0.79, +3.26] excludes zero, robust across estimators); misaligned constraint is actively harmful, not merely unhelpful. Second, an augmentation baseline equipped with test-time orbit averaging matches the equivariant model exactly -- bit-identical per-epoch validation curves across matched cells -- so the architecture-vs-augmentation gap is conditional on asymmetric test-time computation, not unconditional. Third, the relative exchange rate beta_diff = 1.28 is consistent in sign and order of magnitude with the theoretical 1.0 (single-level CI [+0.92, +2.05]); the more conservative two-level bootstrap (seeds x group sizes) widens this to [-0.63, +1.72], including zero, and a finer-N replication on a sqrt(2)-spaced grid is inconclusive (point estimate -0.82). The methodological contributions -- the relative-rate estimator that cancels the shared-difficulty confound, the wrong-group control, and a pre-specified failure taxonomy -- transfer to any inductive bias whose strength can be parameterised. Honest scoping: the primary estimator beta_diff was adopted post-hoc after the initial analysis revealed a positive-slope identifiability problem; the design was never externally pre-registered; and the headline number rests on an OLS slope over seven group sizes on a coarse N grid. This is an exploratory study, not a confirmatory measurement; the wrong-group result is the cleanest finding and the one we report with the most confidence. A registered replication on fresh seeds is future work.

Latent diffusion models have emerged as the dominant framework for high-fidelity and efficient image generation, owing to their ability to learn diffusion processes in compact latent spaces. However, while previous research has focused primarily on reconstruction accuracy and semantic alignment of the latent space, we observe that another critical factor, robustness to sampling perturbations, also plays a crucial role in determining generation quality. Through empirical and theoretical analyses, we show that the commonly used β-VAE-based tokenizers in latent diffusion models, tend to produce overly compact latent manifolds that are highly sensitive to stochastic perturbations during diffusion sampling, leading to visual degradation. To address this issue, we propose a simple yet effective solution that constructs a latent space robust to sampling perturbations while maintaining strong reconstruction fidelity. This is achieved by introducing a Variance Expansion loss that counteracts variance collapse and leverages the adversarial interplay between reconstruction and variance expansion to achieve an adaptive balance that preserves reconstruction accuracy while improving robustness to stochastic sampling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach consistently enhances generation quality across different latent diffusion architectures, confirming that robustness in latent space is a key missing ingredient for stable and faithful diffusion sampling.

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio optimization, which is based on deep learning models. We employ the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN) along with two probabilistic deep learning models: DeepVAR and GPVAR to the task of one-day ahead multivariate forecasting. We then use these forecasts to optimize portfolios of stocks and cryptocurrencies. Our analysis presents results across different combinations of observation windows and rebalancing periods to compare performances of classical and deep learning variance-covariance estimation methods. The conclusions of the study are that although the strategies (portfolios) performance differed significantly between different combinations of parameters, generally the best results in terms of the information ratio and annualized returns are obtained using the LSTM-RNN models. Moreover, longer observation windows translate into better performance of the deep learning models indicating that these methods require longer windows to be able to efficiently capture the long-term dependencies of the variance-covariance matrix structure. Strategies with less frequent rebalancing typically perform better than these with the shortest rebalancing windows across all considered methods.

Recent self-supervised methods for image representation learning are based on maximizing the agreement between embedding vectors from different views of the same image. A trivial solution is obtained when the encoder outputs constant vectors. This collapse problem is often avoided through implicit biases in the learning architecture, that often lack a clear justification or interpretation. In this paper, we introduce VICReg (Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization), a method that explicitly avoids the collapse problem with a simple regularization term on the variance of the embeddings along each dimension individually. VICReg combines the variance term with a decorrelation mechanism based on redundancy reduction and covariance regularization, and achieves results on par with the state of the art on several downstream tasks. In addition, we show that incorporating our new variance term into other methods helps stabilize the training and leads to performance improvements.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

Autoregressive (AR) models are promising for image generation, yet continuous-token AR variants often trail latent diffusion and masked-generation models. The core issue is heterogeneous variance in VAE latents, which is amplified during AR decoding, especially under classifier-free guidance (CFG), and can cause variance collapse. We propose SphereAR to address this issue. Its core design is to constrain all AR inputs and outputs -- including after CFG -- to lie on a fixed-radius hypersphere (constant ell_2 norm), leveraging hyperspherical VAEs. Our theoretical analysis shows that hyperspherical constraint removes the scale component (the primary cause of variance collapse), thereby stabilizing AR decoding. Empirically, on ImageNet generation, SphereAR-H (943M) sets a new state of the art for AR models, achieving FID 1.34. Even at smaller scales, SphereAR-L (479M) reaches FID 1.54 and SphereAR-B (208M) reaches 1.92, matching or surpassing much larger baselines such as MAR-H (943M, 1.55) and VAR-d30 (2B, 1.92). To our knowledge, this is the first time a pure next-token AR image generator with raster order surpasses diffusion and masked-generation models at comparable parameter scales.

Deep neural networks are powerful predictors for a variety of tasks. However, they do not capture uncertainty directly. Using neural network ensembles to quantify uncertainty is competitive with approaches based on Bayesian neural networks while benefiting from better computational scalability. However, building ensembles of neural networks is a challenging task because, in addition to choosing the right neural architecture or hyperparameters for each member of the ensemble, there is an added cost of training each model. We propose AutoDEUQ, an automated approach for generating an ensemble of deep neural networks. Our approach leverages joint neural architecture and hyperparameter search to generate ensembles. We use the law of total variance to decompose the predictive variance of deep ensembles into aleatoric (data) and epistemic (model) uncertainties. We show that AutoDEUQ outperforms probabilistic backpropagation, Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, distribution-free ensembles, and hyper ensemble methods on a number of regression benchmarks.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) frequently suffer from posterior collapse, a failure mode in which the approximate posterior converges to the prior, rendering the latent code uninformative. Despite extensive research, a unified account of why collapse occurs has remained an open question. We identify and formalize two logically independent but coupled causes. Gradient imbalance occurs when the decoder's reconstruction signal vanishes faster than the KL regularization pressure as the posterior widens. Information gap occurs when the stochastic sampling step discards a substantial fraction of the encoder's computed representation, attenuating decoder sensitivity and making collapse inexpensive. Both causes share the same collapse trajectory, and we show that the information gap is algebraically equivalent to mismatch between the aggregate posterior and the prior, unifying two pathologies. Subsequently, we introduce λ-VAE, which resolves both causes through a single modification to the reparameterization step: the sampling noise is scaled by per-dimension exponent, while the KL penalty retains the original posterior variance. This asymmetry shifts the stable training attractor away from the degenerate collapsed state, driving all latent dimensions toward the same equilibrium -- a mechanism we term variance equalization. A closed-form optimal exponent per dimension follows from a net information gain objective, with a single hyperparameter controlling the reconstruction-generation tradeoff. We validate on standard benchmarks (Binary MNIST, Binary Omniglot, CIFAR-10, CelebA-64), showing consistent reductions in collapsed dimensions, information capacity gains of up to 2.8times nats, and reconstruction quality improvements of up to +0.33 BPD.