baogorek commited on
Commit
9da500d
·
verified ·
1 Parent(s): 9e4bae5

Upload batch 3 to staging for candidate 5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0 (crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual)

Browse files
Files changed (50) hide show
  1. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2076.h5 +3 -0
  2. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2076.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  3. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2077.h5 +3 -0
  4. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2077.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  5. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2078.h5 +3 -0
  6. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2078.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  7. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2079.h5 +3 -0
  8. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2079.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  9. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2080.h5 +3 -0
  10. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2080.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  11. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2081.h5 +3 -0
  12. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2081.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  13. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2082.h5 +3 -0
  14. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2082.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  15. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2083.h5 +3 -0
  16. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2083.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  17. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2084.h5 +3 -0
  18. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2084.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  19. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2085.h5 +3 -0
  20. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2085.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  21. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2086.h5 +3 -0
  22. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2086.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  23. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2087.h5 +3 -0
  24. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2087.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  25. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2088.h5 +3 -0
  26. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2088.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  27. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2089.h5 +3 -0
  28. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2089.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  29. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2090.h5 +3 -0
  30. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2090.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  31. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2091.h5 +3 -0
  32. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2091.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  33. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2092.h5 +3 -0
  34. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2092.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  35. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2093.h5 +3 -0
  36. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2093.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  37. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2094.h5 +3 -0
  38. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2094.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  39. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2095.h5 +3 -0
  40. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2095.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  41. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2096.h5 +3 -0
  42. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2096.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  43. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2097.h5 +3 -0
  44. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2097.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  45. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2098.h5 +3 -0
  46. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2098.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  47. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2099.h5 +3 -0
  48. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2099.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
  49. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2100.h5 +3 -0
  50. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2100.h5.metadata.json +314 -0
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2076.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:c4168a528946417e3b923b611a08455f5585944cd969f46d3abb6bbc9c386736
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2076.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.6920223355123575e-10,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 201636316.80829033,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.949520285279364,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.340389102197189,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.46740941021675,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 717048999998.4044,
63
+ "error": -1.5955810546875,
64
+ "pct_error": -2.225205048312598e-10,
65
+ "target": 717049000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 158702903570497.66,
69
+ "error": 55827.46875,
70
+ "pct_error": 3.51773455391378e-08,
71
+ "target": 158702903514670.2
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 10969099133117.445,
75
+ "error": 7683.4296875,
76
+ "pct_error": 7.004613231805386e-08,
77
+ "target": 10969099125434.016
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 853426800008.8212,
81
+ "error": 8.8211669921875,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.0336172935027936e-09,
83
+ "target": 853426800000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 74861999999741.03,
87
+ "error": -258.96875,
88
+ "pct_error": -3.4592817450776095e-10,
89
+ "target": 74862000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 14111129999894.111,
93
+ "error": -105.888671875,
94
+ "pct_error": -7.50391158433095e-10,
95
+ "target": 14111130000000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 174.46628497234906,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 174.46628943979672,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 15.729345881087962,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1564,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.9214637253906,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.022215389477005,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.821465801148755,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 7.004613231805386e-08,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.30977800063125,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 21.720076618239904,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 19.814633548212278,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.9370044682958443,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.35377334295541,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 18.265737012841,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1972,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 509.52138969578874,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 48.10730591081579,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.53743671451628,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 38.81273402451712,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 89.0104914996469,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.23671906857882,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.70896635601368,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 80.24426694245557,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 38.81273402451712,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 56.90289870087495,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.53159201944862,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 47.542627712628914,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 16.78702690251951,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 51.108017225817825,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 47.53205750374712,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.121312960596057,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 36.26312693924264,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 16.78702690251951,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2076
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2077.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:d3a1f23a0f2d6875be0c33c288ee93ac8c8d2f602c3ab9bfc01da0dae5268f56
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2077.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.8083077916623483e-09,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 202144878.29266235,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.461025974583276,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.330769565485291,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.321135191107505,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 746776999998.6576,
63
+ "error": -1.3424072265625,
64
+ "pct_error": -1.797601193612685e-10,
65
+ "target": 746777000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 165400872858079.25,
69
+ "error": 720460.0,
70
+ "pct_error": 4.3558416028214915e-07,
71
+ "target": 165400872137619.25
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 11404485802201.04,
75
+ "error": 84922.578125,
76
+ "pct_error": 7.446418911844253e-07,
77
+ "target": 11404485717278.46
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 885757200032.0007,
81
+ "error": 32.000732421875,
82
+ "pct_error": 3.6128108720849236e-09,
83
+ "target": 885757200000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 77697999999274.61,
87
+ "error": -725.390625,
88
+ "pct_error": -9.33602698911169e-10,
89
+ "target": 77698000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 14679891499635.281,
93
+ "error": -364.71875,
94
+ "pct_error": -2.4844785126647564e-09,
95
+ "target": 14679891500000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 170.37896494345134,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 170.37896919336455,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 14.793735500161423,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1567,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 25.687810882272803,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.11356679507602,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.884876108173955,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 7.446418911844253e-07,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.405259456778456,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 22.282653644433562,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 20.44481201271929,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.9556876485779837,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.57344820059873,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 17.083581358598796,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1980,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 502.82341118170916,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 46.2798818851269,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.5763576439961,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.016859776216116,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 89.00698297695185,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.21599350132672,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.90053824841339,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 80.58044835966423,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.016859776216116,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 57.74137894698067,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.54718345576087,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 48.15901161525596,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 16.92984094387677,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 51.666688022615205,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 48.11291970126264,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.272728877859647,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 37.013052280695476,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 16.92984094387677,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2077
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2078.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:ed36f5cc8394bed1713e5e7d52555fa4154bb1e21fe80bbd56e7cf2c0743ffa4
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2078.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.6838741627712122e-08,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 202718459.13962072,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.349082041145888,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.350742218598675,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.49190441832035,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 777205000036.6617,
63
+ "error": 36.6617431640625,
64
+ "pct_error": 4.717126519266152e-09,
65
+ "target": 777205000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 172388579496783.7,
69
+ "error": 8280972.625,
70
+ "pct_error": 4.8036668362621065e-06,
71
+ "target": 172388571215811.06
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 11857442298076.598,
75
+ "error": 877544.56640625,
76
+ "pct_error": 7.4007919186235e-06,
77
+ "target": 11857441420532.031
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 919410000148.675,
81
+ "error": 148.675048828125,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.617070173569191e-08,
83
+ "target": 919410000000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 80649999999554.0,
87
+ "error": -446.0,
88
+ "pct_error": -5.530068195908245e-10,
89
+ "target": 80650000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 15264601999009.889,
93
+ "error": -990.111328125,
94
+ "pct_error": -6.486322592131783e-09,
95
+ "target": 15264602000000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 167.88208190459537,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 167.88208600821818,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 16.841873235376934,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1572,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 25.908575569569336,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 36.988890730870914,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.882958086339314,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 7.4007919186235e-06,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.462142075216388,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 19.41207194972766,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 17.898195522759803,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.965043594679626,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.319225049479934,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 19.179022491726563,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1987,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 499.3508916369672,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 50.10385813608833,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.55115093649052,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.128878519540514,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 88.8454292956476,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 84.76673615489486,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.0302992425683,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 80.17977464501035,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.128878519540514,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 57.85492336024192,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.52281191259522,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 48.14316476537361,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 17.02343227380572,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 52.09305304493075,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 47.34305348433395,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.336987232417204,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 36.67582787396705,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 17.02343227380572,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2078
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2079.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:723e101dbb6d546d660c1f4ec190d4987261b056eb95e3366d11672379d4da89
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2079.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.0283258289949247e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 203319507.4307624,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.712483922035483,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.4059216338717984,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.03814683296511,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 808543000687.4209,
63
+ "error": 687.4208984375,
64
+ "pct_error": 8.501970809684828e-08,
65
+ "target": 808543000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 179678925915620.28,
69
+ "error": 96246055.28125,
70
+ "pct_error": 5.3565606731883505e-05,
71
+ "target": 179678829669565.0
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 12328698286846.24,
75
+ "error": 9527558.58984375,
76
+ "pct_error": 7.727957754360774e-05,
77
+ "target": 12328688759287.65
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 962860501314.6729,
81
+ "error": 1314.6728515625,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.3653824739539114e-07,
83
+ "target": 962860500000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 83727000023100.73,
87
+ "error": 23100.734375,
88
+ "pct_error": 2.759054352240018e-08,
89
+ "target": 83727000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 15861367201125.723,
93
+ "error": 1125.72265625,
94
+ "pct_error": 7.097261175884005e-09,
95
+ "target": 15861367200000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 165.96382724963172,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 165.96383124975583,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 20.495621475267505,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1574,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 25.41408965310095,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 36.711304352807076,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.811518465406028,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 7.727957754360774e-05,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.49979383472901,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 14.256191593992467,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.085327069509209,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.9741580233110547,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.096612047996724,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 23.129645003911588,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1997,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 498.8228317698223,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 57.45087244370743,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.45581968958659,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.19666162602519,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 88.2654570588564,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.6526582516473,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.12189238194199,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 79.2085270280786,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.19666162602519,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 57.1224759451893,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.50576442841799,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 47.44933135165974,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 17.10154723506764,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 51.30380112106029,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 45.35371514191108,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.301952053728803,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 35.420602882712984,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 17.10154723506764,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2079
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2080.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:b8254a44de38f603ed9797474928cff041905230f8b7609049475bc818b8d0b3
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2080.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 3.537758725922941e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 203845454.34155494,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.44398927524219,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.4050308300006544,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.0203750283861,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 840796999999.8787,
63
+ "error": -0.121337890625,
64
+ "pct_error": -1.443129442957099e-11,
65
+ "target": 840797000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 187285062766519.0,
69
+ "error": 4894.0,
70
+ "pct_error": 2.613128846388057e-09,
71
+ "target": 187285062761625.0
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 12818980891070.855,
75
+ "error": 803.3671875,
76
+ "pct_error": 6.267012911376892e-09,
77
+ "target": 12818980890267.488
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 999729500000.9185,
81
+ "error": 0.91845703125,
82
+ "pct_error": 9.187055410988673e-11,
83
+ "target": 999729500000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 86932999999927.3,
87
+ "error": -72.703125,
88
+ "pct_error": -8.363121599392635e-11,
89
+ "target": 86933000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 16478316299978.766,
93
+ "error": -21.232421875,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.2885067556932382e-10,
95
+ "target": 16478316299999.998
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 162.75812636199356,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 162.75813023219402,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 21.27534650580964,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1571,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 25.849742627368265,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 36.18632009927587,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.770078474429224,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 6.267012911376892e-09,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.557514430015015,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 14.029426755861923,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 12.924153660569008,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.9954074025616202,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.985953047408814,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 24.29702906421725,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2007,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 496.7061824507362,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 58.277683151349315,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.46782363374152,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.329800076367796,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 88.20071617628652,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.49223346889761,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.16492041108014,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 79.18295032488419,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.329800076367796,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 57.091873056970485,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.49338737167756,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 47.035500517407414,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 17.24261373548995,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 50.666262653044846,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 44.80965090899478,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.316302737567499,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 35.133839621274745,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 17.24261373548995,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2080
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2081.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:f38c8bbadf90af236ce536cad3637fafb36282d0439096414c0bc669bab380c0
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2081.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 5.052840218723613e-10,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 204390135.57579654,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.369032670834466,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.4191533542623334,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.146292645378832,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 873879999999.7726,
63
+ "error": -0.2274169921875,
64
+ "pct_error": -2.6023823887433054e-11,
65
+ "target": 873880000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 195221276504200.0,
69
+ "error": 206713.6875,
70
+ "pct_error": 1.0588686408596217e-07,
71
+ "target": 195221276297486.3
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 13329102313815.902,
75
+ "error": 30124.59765625,
76
+ "pct_error": 2.2600620068096155e-07,
77
+ "target": 13329102283691.305
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1038082000010.6761,
81
+ "error": 10.676025390625,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.0284375791724544e-09,
83
+ "target": 1038082000000.0001
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 90267999999555.75,
87
+ "error": -444.25,
88
+ "pct_error": -4.92145610847698e-10,
89
+ "target": 90268000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 17111621999815.424,
93
+ "error": -184.576171875,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.078659707858203e-09,
95
+ "target": 17111622000000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 159.96175875917083,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 159.96176251331585,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 22.45638506190466,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1572,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 25.998788368047666,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 35.21095967679708,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.650284856540797,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 2.2600620068096155e-07,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.597677147145666,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.335645588645109,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 12.321660518171699,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.029792255983423,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.6769912372942395,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 26.48123529631225,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2012,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 494.4315045115704,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 60.28260276960447,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.45142138516671,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.440190158986226,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 88.12304504979984,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.24770926354684,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.182870346832,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 79.01363690182384,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.440190158986226,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 56.39236041892843,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.47229090962313,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 45.85258976584811,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 17.37311314344643,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 49.93829083745815,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 43.889749399340424,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.293148884600708,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 34.47609400628077,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 17.37311314344643,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2081
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2082.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:2451da06113348c9ccb5ee0bb2f89c3d98b46b137eac7f73f6162a18d36c824d
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2082.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 5.4662316656579675e-09,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 204918068.041386,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.53972674051693,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.4376127008447734,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.32492764890381,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 907958000008.679,
63
+ "error": 8.678955078125,
64
+ "pct_error": 9.558762716034221e-10,
65
+ "target": 907958000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 203502134304149.66,
69
+ "error": 3027807.34375,
70
+ "pct_error": 1.487850434174785e-06,
71
+ "target": 203502131276342.3
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 13859871509476.465,
75
+ "error": 370514.5859375,
76
+ "pct_error": 2.6732902652748038e-06,
77
+ "target": 13859871138961.879
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1078113500089.5492,
81
+ "error": 89.54931640625,
82
+ "pct_error": 8.30611214925423e-09,
83
+ "target": 1078113499999.9999
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 93748999998856.89,
87
+ "error": -1143.109375,
88
+ "pct_error": -1.2193296728498437e-09,
89
+ "target": 93749000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 17766183299114.945,
93
+ "error": -885.0546875,
94
+ "pct_error": -4.9816816170077456e-09,
95
+ "target": 17766183300000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 157.62719345707177,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 157.62719711609824,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 24.020826302050956,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1572,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 25.750863917005123,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 34.6370338234337,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.558604164925561,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 2.6732902652748038e-06,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.627421139303623,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.68159571879163,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.846961847389887,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.054219984126054,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.973747893768803,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 29.921111235082254,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2018,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 493.0765368409098,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 63.679073275047806,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.41356566951089,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.508804300202335,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 87.94765546107253,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 82.76819512045053,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.192882339707054,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 78.637818593968,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.508804300202335,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 55.64732422398374,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.45312241994691,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 44.94876979545744,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 17.47980192342907,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 48.88267101269349,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 42.63295947672211,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.243739438269106,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.47162280247793,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 17.47980192342907,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2082
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2083.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:71d116d8b29d14026d846bb4fc3a8ced16ed0ae4962acbb208fd6109a1d7b89d
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2083.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.011711807828178e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 205252256.0729733,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 10.993216786861568,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.35689092131254,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.563537477526573,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 943051000735.893,
63
+ "error": 735.8929443359375,
64
+ "pct_error": 7.803320757158812e-08,
65
+ "target": 943051000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 212143065255961.62,
69
+ "error": 130743496.3125,
70
+ "pct_error": 6.162990844496762e-05,
71
+ "target": 212142934512465.3
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 14412151651757.242,
75
+ "error": 13224292.7890625,
76
+ "pct_error": 9.175801950293277e-05,
77
+ "target": 14412138427464.453
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1119881501525.1772,
81
+ "error": 1525.17724609375,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.3619094931863326e-07,
83
+ "target": 1119881500000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 97381000029455.8,
87
+ "error": 29455.796875,
88
+ "pct_error": 3.0247991779710624e-08,
89
+ "target": 97381000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 18437989500507.965,
93
+ "error": 507.96484375,
94
+ "pct_error": 2.754990416661209e-09,
95
+ "target": 18437989500000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 152.0794996213186,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 152.07950312554792,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 25.071971994999767,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1569,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 26.536646259664987,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 34.305235819657824,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.563391311658103,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 9.175801950293277e-05,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.7497492456902926,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 14.090210299251932,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.22187357899869,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.1140205047043605,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.038618978158125,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 28.078793359432424,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2024,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 488.1207677578536,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 59.53393614456878,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.54786451022366,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.62814082567612,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 88.23843225466203,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.73184779576832,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.0738819803732,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 79.56295270141867,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.62814082567612,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 56.11753619406963,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.53353554767975,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 44.97277687513282,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 17.75011537610621,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 46.00081457171654,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 41.65070518322439,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.420843847826411,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 34.108972582396596,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 17.75011537610621,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2083
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2084.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:edd8c844ba86a5e4204e09c9c0973bf750ee11b6e3f8f6d740efdccca3297360
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2084.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.748013323844491e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 205701911.34372076,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 10.91390180043645,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.3326342022111404,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.333725147003204,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 978964999999.8688,
63
+ "error": -0.1312255859375,
64
+ "pct_error": -1.3404522729362133e-11,
65
+ "target": 978965000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 221159702258070.56,
69
+ "error": 5657.4375,
70
+ "pct_error": 2.5580779149101382e-09,
71
+ "target": 221159702252413.12
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 14986793987314.377,
75
+ "error": 950.404296875,
76
+ "pct_error": 6.341611806632852e-09,
77
+ "target": 14986793986363.973
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1163374500001.204,
81
+ "error": 1.2041015625,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.0350076974353487e-10,
83
+ "target": 1163374500000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 101162999999922.39,
87
+ "error": -77.609375,
88
+ "pct_error": -7.671715449324358e-11,
89
+ "target": 101163000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 19128095999975.836,
93
+ "error": -24.1640625,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.2632758900833624e-10,
95
+ "target": 19128096000000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 147.4444341450476,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 147.44443749632651,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 26.81413445940334,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1567,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 26.636003616076366,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 33.96423373752845,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.522893998095457,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 6.341611806632852e-09,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.847923039694762,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.363881928505302,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 12.691926493737618,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.173092361955541,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.7705885717309,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 29.909413771640047,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2031,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 482.60626632021365,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 60.56947315076413,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.60130133593121,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.778689682140985,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 87.69742595037529,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.22843784868704,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.105886822931936,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 79.60403659181104,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.77868968214098,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 55.915879374089414,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.57069937282415,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 44.5737968844674,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 17.98724237257824,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 44.0305655305101,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.45500856152924,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.48855745527598,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.43845970415527,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 17.987242372578237,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2084
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2085.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:099adae975102a70504cc44dbae6fbe12b740a276e9f53074f19a2d4e7d7d85d
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2085.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 8.964525765370772e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 206258059.85393158,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.177970322749092,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.361359718840534,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.605118097101055,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1015208999999.4843,
63
+ "error": -0.5157470703125,
64
+ "pct_error": -5.08020585231711e-11,
65
+ "target": 1015209000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 230569177595137.9,
69
+ "error": 25833.5625,
70
+ "pct_error": 1.1204256688747984e-08,
71
+ "target": 230569177569304.34
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 15584762377100.383,
75
+ "error": 4295.22265625,
76
+ "pct_error": 2.756039876324971e-08,
77
+ "target": 15584762372805.16
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1208696000004.4685,
81
+ "error": 4.468505859375,
82
+ "pct_error": 3.696964215464434e-10,
83
+ "target": 1208696000000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 105103999999817.22,
87
+ "error": -182.78125,
88
+ "pct_error": -1.739051320596742e-10,
89
+ "target": 105104000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 19832007499928.87,
93
+ "error": -71.12890625,
94
+ "pct_error": -3.586571165324539e-10,
95
+ "target": 19832007500000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 144.7942666226432,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 144.79426987205417,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 36.1612478737485,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1568,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 26.22763044753698,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 33.53566240119527,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.439319309295869,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 2.756039876324971e-08,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.892994546325632,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 9.503304559732959,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 9.125864763852915,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.2174920195065106,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.5048591203314885,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 40.541424703425164,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2036,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 481.4932022201685,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 68.8233052633901,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.50991027144636,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.7171185195477,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.83614978391621,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.87312094771009,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.06162808002224,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 78.51139447642997,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.7171185195477,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 55.15565641877951,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.51334308686684,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 43.86083922808168,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 18.107122229420007,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 39.99888439890565,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 36.127525361656076,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.426091439541615,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.190496125928007,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 18.107122229420007,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2085
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2086.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:a4b4ac7c4cdd74c412c48ef679249bca5ba88710089820919b77b2a66eda21cc
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2086.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.8881248203554909e-10,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 206872691.63643098,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.711888745831171,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.414348704417594,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.088269898926757,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1052673999998.9276,
63
+ "error": -1.0723876953125,
64
+ "pct_error": -1.0187272558384648e-10,
65
+ "target": 1052674000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 240388850232903.06,
69
+ "error": 50389.0,
70
+ "pct_error": 2.0961454727098367e-08,
71
+ "target": 240388850182514.06
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 16207007569246.684,
75
+ "error": 8505.19921875,
76
+ "pct_error": 5.247852934524626e-08,
77
+ "target": 16207007560741.484
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1245073800009.9224,
81
+ "error": 9.92236328125,
82
+ "pct_error": 7.969297306914659e-10,
83
+ "target": 1245073800000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 109216999999693.84,
87
+ "error": -306.15625,
88
+ "pct_error": -2.803192268602873e-10,
89
+ "target": 109217000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 20554748999856.535,
93
+ "error": -143.46484375,
94
+ "pct_error": -6.979644643191703e-10,
95
+ "target": 20554749000000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 142.96494812971278,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 142.96495130841026,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 41.41966976890666,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1569,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 25.431030783061193,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 33.75604562989597,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.421772616286487,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 5.247852934524626e-08,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.916260931448219,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.553311719038808,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.065538757588917,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.2482607990457284,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.474528950604365,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 53.97512196114179,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2041,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 481.74042217173246,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 75.71021205817735,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.40218005453669,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.65628108996764,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.15845102883323,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 80.16612937068068,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.96168227172576,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 77.38322557916982,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.65628108996764,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 54.59301766941444,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.4184077769225,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 43.66580394922976,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 18.210364794565358,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.06645519386816,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 33.39340198158688,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.306355690626473,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.019239870897902,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 18.210364794565358,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2086
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2087.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:b0318fae5f6997089337395c04ee298261a858ba3d47e8b51f380477403d0007
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2087.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.1851219988461543e-09,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 207399381.891196,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.91907704315249,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.428700329344154,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.225838740513666,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1090788999997.8113,
63
+ "error": -2.188720703125,
64
+ "pct_error": -2.006548198712125e-10,
65
+ "target": 1090789000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 250637036108260.94,
69
+ "error": 466538.34375,
70
+ "pct_error": 1.8614102363423307e-07,
71
+ "target": 250637035641722.6
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 16854537392351.105,
75
+ "error": 76632.857421875,
76
+ "pct_error": 4.5467197340628586e-07,
77
+ "target": 16854537315718.248
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1293945600051.7,
81
+ "error": 51.699951171875,
82
+ "pct_error": 3.995527414125833e-09,
83
+ "target": 1293945600000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 113503999998911.56,
87
+ "error": -1088.4375,
88
+ "pct_error": -9.589419756131942e-10,
89
+ "target": 113504000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 21300794099291.477,
93
+ "error": -708.5234375,
94
+ "pct_error": -3.3262771057910932e-09,
95
+ "target": 21300794100000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 140.18311882978455,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 140.18312182508194,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 43.202160141236796,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1568,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 25.128089235401614,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 33.557687585808004,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.3767170526338095,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 4.5467197340628586e-07,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.964071618018068,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.907315297850828,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.80186178067131,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.3013640400192505,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.576010341998776,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 59.582916970474145,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2047,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 476.2390890387268,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 77.38174780358602,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.37296105693454,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.77372738160956,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.59715478590437,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 79.0582305481974,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.010327225263126,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 76.7031028288867,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.77372738160956,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 54.12816221635774,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.4151379983895,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 43.30234790142824,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 18.400878852907045,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 39.33965624015261,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 31.324038264654618,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.338937403948133,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 28.055956028898464,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 18.400878852907045,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2087
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2088.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:1eb19360f15459edfffac021372a62ced0470d87bcb72b07afb0f3fa6221ff55
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2088.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.2657703187233999e-08,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 207984022.64572608,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.071497739073317,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.424820095462979,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.201350648963935,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1130016000032.5847,
63
+ "error": 32.584716796875,
64
+ "pct_error": 2.883562427158111e-09,
65
+ "target": 1130016000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 261332859232188.12,
69
+ "error": 8711309.3125,
70
+ "pct_error": 3.333415334175151e-06,
71
+ "target": 261332850520878.8
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 17528398920197.014,
75
+ "error": 1395413.1484375,
76
+ "pct_error": 7.960871188963443e-06,
77
+ "target": 17528397524783.865
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1344892200392.8809,
81
+ "error": 392.880859375,
82
+ "pct_error": 2.921281418503282e-08,
83
+ "target": 1344892200000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 117972999997563.47,
87
+ "error": -2436.53125,
88
+ "pct_error": -2.065329566934807e-09,
89
+ "target": 117973000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 22066100795977.805,
93
+ "error": -4022.1953125,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.8227938632909715e-08,
95
+ "target": 22066100800000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 137.22524709853238,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 137.22524996882868,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 43.431547951120706,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1570,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.884641795450705,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 33.753563725823625,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.387407024971778,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 7.960871188963443e-06,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.026321086088771,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 8.968415947152351,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.717244322234171,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.3486274638600797,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.678186068744693,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 63.15745830621948,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2051,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 472.3542157502095,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 77.64486528250865,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.37611887830732,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.88508891513171,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.1896609979884,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 78.38012262335212,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.012739414423784,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 76.15460854788533,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.88508891513172,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 54.06243466022123,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.42412910729747,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 43.40395050485573,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 18.60105617640537,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 37.239174931163774,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 30.344312204317486,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.382455175429007,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 27.95514651859692,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 18.60105617640537,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2088
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2089.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:6afffeb73be5334cfb61f6297384e1e09e7e10e18ab9adc368ed8970f846e4e2
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2089.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 8.086049442055627e-08,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 208571361.00973028,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.18562398920749,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.4190181028558477,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.15897966534221,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1170571000443.6948,
63
+ "error": 443.69482421875,
64
+ "pct_error": 3.7904136034358446e-08,
65
+ "target": 1170571000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 272496386485007.3,
69
+ "error": 61898169.28125,
70
+ "pct_error": 2.2715230884343374e-05,
71
+ "target": 272496324586838.03
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 18229692122072.562,
75
+ "error": 9247879.0,
76
+ "pct_error": 5.0729785393532824e-05,
77
+ "target": 18229682874193.562
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1385707701835.9705,
81
+ "error": 1835.970458984375,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.3249334321981288e-07,
83
+ "target": 1385707700000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 122629000010028.58,
87
+ "error": 10028.578125,
88
+ "pct_error": 8.177982471519788e-09,
89
+ "target": 122629000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 22860399589768.28,
93
+ "error": -10231.71875,
94
+ "pct_error": -4.475739238608935e-08,
95
+ "target": 22860399600000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 134.9744407233672,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 134.97444352320375,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 47.64256157202112,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1573,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.699501095044347,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 33.90395828329419,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.39611246824182,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 5.0729785393532824e-05,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.085284475568315,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.8556114501510566,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.68690513958193,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.390255658185911,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.739889757001597,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 68.41204738962617,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2056,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 469.1400165417369,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 77.94264007331552,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.3798583349084,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 39.92901699783552,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 84.9637111876919,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 77.91680762764467,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.99235528886674,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.97749521007918,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 39.92901699783552,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 54.01230732618123,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.42921031625427,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 43.48525365978128,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 18.746974634691615,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 35.922660914488745,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 28.545145585019892,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.412484475717973,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 27.636769295803887,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 18.746974634691615,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2089
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2090.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:29616ca781b1998da814e8be94c4a67a235afaf687ed569193c6108550a93482
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2090.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.7395061455893727e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 209064336.0312823,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.327672055621406,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.397830150083531,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.98842732827244,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1212548999999.5864,
63
+ "error": -0.41357421875,
64
+ "pct_error": -3.410783553901739e-11,
65
+ "target": 1212549000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 284148340461317.4,
69
+ "error": 692.625,
70
+ "pct_error": 2.437547229300039e-10,
71
+ "target": 284148340460624.75
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 18959529319421.78,
75
+ "error": 134.26171875,
76
+ "pct_error": 7.081490077573583e-10,
77
+ "target": 18959529319287.52
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1440490100002.8367,
81
+ "error": 2.836669921875,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.9692394427945044e-10,
83
+ "target": 1440490100000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 127476999999944.11,
87
+ "error": -55.890625,
88
+ "pct_error": -4.384369337213772e-11,
89
+ "target": 127477000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 23680276799964.08,
93
+ "error": -35.921875,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.5169533406805449e-10,
95
+ "target": 23680276800000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 132.1589556948177,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 132.15895838554286,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 45.80428276909979,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1573,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.4457604486804,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 34.560173475388666,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.466521600963477,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 7.081490077573583e-10,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.164386412675839,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 8.553730738927014,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.019699577363657,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.4363853984694135,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.739594058854106,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 69.80744962599728,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2062,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 464.03935796516987,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 77.79220541690803,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.40416156112414,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 40.069534540315786,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 84.51413308727676,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 77.56162635657336,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.04221245711065,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.8313207083757,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 40.069534540315786,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 54.33415223510656,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.44118098806204,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 44.10562268129682,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 18.92129835284109,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 35.78715068827892,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 27.826970305389843,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.46441916393655,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 27.756627295061193,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 18.92129835284109,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2090
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2091.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:ada4358766f84a8b88391b2e7b315fd212c11cdb2d20bd63819fd30b4486a5f5
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2091.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.0934944485200113e-10,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 209579964.51048517,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.59254879078828,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.3806111439968425,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.882305694851162,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1256273999998.61,
63
+ "error": -1.389892578125,
64
+ "pct_error": -1.1063610152920461e-10,
65
+ "target": 1256274000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 296310797534089.94,
69
+ "error": 13346.875,
70
+ "pct_error": 4.504349862264355e-09,
71
+ "target": 296310797520743.06
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 19719127275188.363,
75
+ "error": 2445.57421875,
76
+ "pct_error": 1.2402040845542138e-08,
77
+ "target": 19719127272742.79
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1497453400012.1648,
81
+ "error": 12.164794921875,
82
+ "pct_error": 8.123655081269975e-10,
83
+ "target": 1497453400000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 132517999999760.94,
87
+ "error": -239.0625,
88
+ "pct_error": -1.804000211292051e-10,
89
+ "target": 132518000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 24540549999845.273,
93
+ "error": -154.7265625,
94
+ "pct_error": -6.30493458785561e-10,
95
+ "target": 24540550000000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 129.80750001819655,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 129.8075026251093,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 45.52053574621064,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1576,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.022272837373876,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 35.255671467966,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.530654868675281,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.2402040845542138e-08,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.2408412679129555,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 8.478358318566864,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.239282926326037,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.4791711140803336,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.7271612101964875,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 70.05901288706201,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2067,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 459.29899294954396,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 77.75459196524118,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.4169774915643,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 40.14893558819822,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 84.1577082245465,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 77.15732070258274,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.07372462055,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.72182760986894,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 40.14893558819823,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 54.51589117133716,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.45228320602813,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 44.74081520534711,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 19.067133322042736,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 35.973458405476116,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 27.520238535171526,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.517776341680078,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 27.773321406827527,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.067133322042743,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2091
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2092.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:143d2f0997e83304c3223785dda2a17b3649e16f96ab42049112cd009626965a
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2092.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 6.571032719320928e-10,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 210125836.53689164,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.621596947604495,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.372217740921222,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.80722126799514,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1302100999995.7986,
63
+ "error": -4.201416015625,
64
+ "pct_error": -3.226643720897995e-10,
65
+ "target": 1302101000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 309006558668864.8,
69
+ "error": 203684.4375,
70
+ "pct_error": 6.591589463721744e-08,
71
+ "target": 309006558465180.4
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 20509712239155.547,
75
+ "error": 34533.69921875,
76
+ "pct_error": 1.6837729790751456e-07,
77
+ "target": 20509712204621.848
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1542956800055.4048,
81
+ "error": 55.40478515625,
82
+ "pct_error": 3.5908189494514687e-09,
83
+ "target": 1542956800000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 137763999999032.61,
87
+ "error": -967.390625,
88
+ "pct_error": -7.022085777126099e-10,
89
+ "target": 137764000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 25438839199311.438,
93
+ "error": -688.5625,
94
+ "pct_error": -2.706737106149089e-09,
95
+ "target": 25438839200000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 128.14346476554402,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 128.14346730783157,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 43.29199925000125,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1576,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 23.961793588390655,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 35.595553483515964,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.5717167740450275,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.6837729790751456e-07,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.3155022031017225,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 8.946349007960833,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.29682886278869,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.5244727336673294,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.707228059351362,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 70.21083691816615,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2067,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 453.84181252629503,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 77.23928706883963,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.42943932327614,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 40.23665305124335,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 84.15963101223349,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 77.00152447931148,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.123968086120556,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.8282716375519,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 40.23665305124335,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 54.75621095016289,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.46927764075888,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 45.1473601916824,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 19.167167332555525,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 37.1342989776475,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 27.458863845647258,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.594281750766022,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 27.924810358693392,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.167167332555522,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2092
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2093.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:aca6b7e48f4fc6867cc172ad3be6e7da0104e2cf0aead88c8204daf2697ba785
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2093.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.3501788855153124e-08,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 210713835.46153638,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.453259708235192,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.344521268113093,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.53662356338825,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1350009000023.9026,
63
+ "error": 23.902587890625,
64
+ "pct_error": 1.770550262303807e-09,
65
+ "target": 1350009000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 322259572822205.9,
69
+ "error": 10408737.0625,
70
+ "pct_error": 3.229923414699259e-06,
71
+ "target": 322259562413468.8
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 21332577324491.07,
75
+ "error": 1490054.20703125,
76
+ "pct_error": 6.984877112804528e-06,
77
+ "target": 21332575834436.863
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1604008000640.2678,
81
+ "error": 640.267822265625,
82
+ "pct_error": 3.99167474392662e-08,
83
+ "target": 1604008000000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 143214999995992.28,
87
+ "error": -4007.71875,
88
+ "pct_error": -2.7983931501588522e-09,
89
+ "target": 143215000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 26380333994370.684,
93
+ "error": -5629.31640625,
94
+ "pct_error": -2.1339064191719483e-08,
95
+ "target": 26380334000000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 126.15343758394792,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 126.15344010075351,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 45.1976078832241,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1577,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.15525063263327,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 36.14009863094041,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.655217611731904,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 6.984877112804528e-06,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.4116035820240285,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 8.052372824510503,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.7745371707471715,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.5639208765712924,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.679204315059707,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 67.78930732362807,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2070,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 449.4707577994635,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 76.29741515415817,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.48428727190542,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 40.277115013999016,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 84.10292756299452,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 77.29562101599244,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.143660452601424,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 76.07962558016375,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 40.27711501399902,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 55.424867082699826,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.52419764716704,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 45.9668921693995,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 19.29262530606917,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 37.26181180935541,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 27.44016986022279,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.64424766240491,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 28.243191404818944,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.292625306069173,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2093
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2094.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:750c1721818448a6f6b865e15e3d179aa5af3651bf9b0ed511f57ffda46a5972
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2094.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.906694845913288e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 211284839.8530625,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.423160209631853,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.30829346159811,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.20757110678737,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1400377999999.1938,
63
+ "error": -0.80615234375,
64
+ "pct_error": -5.756676724070215e-11,
65
+ "target": 1400378000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 336094820618315.75,
69
+ "error": 2040.625,
70
+ "pct_error": 6.071575266343704e-10,
71
+ "target": 336094820616275.1
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 22189062802298.676,
75
+ "error": 363.96484375,
76
+ "pct_error": 1.6402893939182738e-09,
77
+ "target": 22189062801934.71
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1667411200005.5396,
81
+ "error": 5.53955078125,
82
+ "pct_error": 3.3222463548583573e-10,
83
+ "target": 1667411200000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 148875999999905.03,
87
+ "error": -94.96875,
88
+ "pct_error": -6.379050350627368e-11,
89
+ "target": 148876000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 27368736799937.613,
93
+ "error": -62.38671875,
94
+ "pct_error": -2.2794884252750752e-10,
95
+ "target": 27368736800000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 124.47604273292181,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 124.47604521695959,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 34.434312531484146,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1577,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.127242367246183,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.11171223329694,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.780690261016672,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.6402893939182738e-09,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.487443093879678,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.578405348725676,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.983715417770594,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.593186203111174,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.717178543985283,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 58.348176955626485,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2078,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 445.0371261601352,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 72.77618937039692,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.5450778036309,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 40.483178433377816,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 84.4048423556191,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 77.81363992364327,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.193691502160675,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 76.48667819049064,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 40.483178433377816,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 56.24650527610206,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.58402821383636,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 47.20262794077314,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 19.41288719125498,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 39.56942767168157,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 30.56611598243024,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.719733507778466,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.49157641831059,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.41288719125498,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2094
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2095.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:56946e3a26e9fc877691d679457bf1b782e7845957567dd2e2eff8198967f608
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2095.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 5.877827119857627e-09,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 211804222.41958243,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.03770819218786,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.2547763779173406,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 24.662293978961152,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1453665999989.5815,
63
+ "error": -10.41845703125,
64
+ "pct_error": -7.167022570005765e-10,
65
+ "target": 1453666000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 350538500389247.1,
69
+ "error": 4377980.125,
70
+ "pct_error": 1.2489299106421917e-06,
71
+ "target": 350538496011267.0
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 23080575607681.64,
75
+ "error": 555652.9296875,
76
+ "pct_error": 2.407448377845594e-06,
77
+ "target": 23080575052028.71
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1733244800337.5032,
81
+ "error": 337.503173828125,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.9472331538402712e-08,
83
+ "target": 1733244800000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 154753999997012.28,
87
+ "error": -2987.71875,
88
+ "pct_error": -1.930624571901211e-09,
89
+ "target": 154754000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 28409400396874.723,
93
+ "error": -3125.27734375,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.1000856405790247e-08,
95
+ "target": 28409400400000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 122.90802636668239,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 122.90802878796798,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 33.852681959227134,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1577,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.608616806304973,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.939916730024194,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.922087346098972,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 2.407448377845594e-06,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.562511522419657,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.608212091920393,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 8.680714091583933,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.6114205640716732,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.846502565864568,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 48.337806057317366,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2085,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 440.69535762080955,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 68.92622487850849,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.73146718462435,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 40.6913095339402,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 84.82049326263751,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 78.96085510020042,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.32364327558763,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 77.80086033440533,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 40.6913095339402,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 57.440291334477045,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.7246806445069,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 48.58068455791097,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 19.55862251357339,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.262019807953536,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 33.4202769444926,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.796666519540992,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 30.899407572593145,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.55862251357339,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2095
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2096.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:7013c7bd9701eb8f816e5c70d0525ae2c4f31c9b17d24e68aa1f00c74958fe81
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2096.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 3.2975788714860746e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 212164063.9039431,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.665758915576316,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.2229422715450067,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 24.324507535015968,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1509441999999.0322,
63
+ "error": -0.9677734375,
64
+ "pct_error": -6.411464882387001e-11,
65
+ "target": 1509442000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 365617950503716.4,
69
+ "error": 5066.5625,
70
+ "pct_error": 1.3857532140011025e-09,
71
+ "target": 365617950498649.8
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 24008576965363.68,
75
+ "error": 841.3203125,
76
+ "pct_error": 3.504248976285537e-09,
77
+ "target": 24008576964522.36
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1801576000005.196,
81
+ "error": 5.196044921875,
82
+ "pct_error": 2.884166375370786e-10,
83
+ "target": 1801576000000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 160854999999892.16,
87
+ "error": -107.84375,
88
+ "pct_error": -6.70440769637251e-11,
89
+ "target": 160855000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 29501193599939.91,
93
+ "error": -60.08984375,
94
+ "pct_error": -2.0368614424468573e-10,
95
+ "target": 29501193600000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 121.82064009811965,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 121.82064239156469,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 32.517452081457215,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1577,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 25.140907258003477,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 38.17248838736096,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.989405680027119,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 3.504248976285537e-09,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.638300638533473,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.921887975605523,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.931849135015504,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.624798533764882,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.019971036040748,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 35.096602202731354,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2089,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 437.25828160055363,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 63.923882651739426,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.88560173110203,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 40.912560702940866,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.91467177557095,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 80.51744959769972,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.534726244187254,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 79.17572099408977,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 40.91256070294086,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 58.15091567428019,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.87164019312476,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 49.215229381651596,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 19.680790281942663,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 43.1795505549342,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 36.72628259549554,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.83733459505157,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.602084120358214,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.68079028194266,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2096
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2097.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:6c0bb2c2ed5941c71621fd00f263f3c08c806161425f0eed8e885e8199a41b05
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2097.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.8589281324232657e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 212455832.53281984,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.991826024673736,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.260262956411014,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 24.711109238256093,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1567877999999.465,
63
+ "error": -0.534912109375,
64
+ "pct_error": -3.4116947197103346e-11,
65
+ "target": 1567878000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 381361809531669.2,
69
+ "error": 2997.9375,
70
+ "pct_error": 7.86113718021524e-10,
71
+ "target": 381361809528671.25
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 24974591863261.9,
75
+ "error": 520.74609375,
76
+ "pct_error": 2.08510351885624e-09,
77
+ "target": 24974591862741.152
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1855753500003.3232,
81
+ "error": 3.3232421875,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.7907778093911718e-10,
83
+ "target": 1855753500000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 167184999999910.72,
87
+ "error": -89.28125,
88
+ "pct_error": -5.3402667703442296e-11,
89
+ "target": 167185000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 30645405699945.45,
93
+ "error": -54.55078125,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.7800639281469848e-10,
95
+ "target": 30645405700000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 122.30081267714021,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 122.30081487874742,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 22.60647004762742,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1576,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.692805806359445,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.68993889073286,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.894706020807383,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 2.08510351885624e-09,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.608933553639054,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.64402569813246,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 14.991165159345696,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.6804307398737013,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.072847476739149,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 29.77537338938385,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2096,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 423.95053427952354,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 62.118852423823505,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.72656835680021,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 41.1395342118954,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.14459014716705,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 79.73844528474619,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.83001169877771,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 78.64123319486099,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 41.1395342118954,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 57.29842599628845,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.72162610959447,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 48.30051016370345,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 19.629315878389697,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 46.343779713692115,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 37.692350074029726,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.225626415556166,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.082294281566476,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.629315878389697,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2097
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2098.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:bf49a4ad36007fb3e57ee2d6e6e115a0a822c62de8970b3526d5ad2b9522b51b
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2098.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.3273118542356754e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 212986793.2539273,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.952579005225967,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.266137592175052,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 24.76143394951653,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1629434999999.5242,
63
+ "error": -0.475830078125,
64
+ "pct_error": -2.920215155099774e-11,
65
+ "target": 1629435000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 397800019746323.44,
69
+ "error": 1963.5,
70
+ "pct_error": 4.935897190909676e-10,
71
+ "target": 397800019744359.94
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 25980210251774.453,
75
+ "error": 345.65625,
76
+ "pct_error": 1.3304597871027255e-09,
77
+ "target": 25980210251428.797
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 1928625000003.285,
81
+ "error": 3.284912109375,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.703240448181995e-10,
83
+ "target": 1928625000000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 173749999999921.5,
87
+ "error": -78.5,
88
+ "pct_error": -4.5179856115107915e-11,
89
+ "target": 173750000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 31844475599948.047,
93
+ "error": -51.953125,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.6314642970600527e-10,
95
+ "target": 31844475600000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 121.28474290256392,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 121.28474506185454,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 24.050031346912355,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1577,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.766074127294104,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.85250339390945,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.919428676148714,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.3304597871027255e-09,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.644133536217722,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 12.9996876548683,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.314065357164845,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.7120644169434547,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.041122931529336,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 34.40987584711077,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2096,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 420.606373982655,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 64.29149756477561,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.70103003583378,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 41.17819074594532,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.05822402662763,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 79.16029277555197,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.84554631814435,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 78.21135555897322,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 41.17819074594532,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 57.51551322674769,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.6927050636305,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 48.554674688485136,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 19.68452300370259,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 45.703466486802625,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 36.38666071013421,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.276151161450667,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.40368929973891,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.68452300370259,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2098
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2099.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:14b825b31f2dc26a513a6dff0297dc0df082f6c6a5162db91abacc12fd9f4018
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2099.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.1848512839263e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 213534453.31604832,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.864525640227347,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.263770277617374,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 24.73591319359877,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1694186999999.4712,
63
+ "error": -0.52880859375,
64
+ "pct_error": -3.1213118371820824e-11,
65
+ "target": 1694187000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 414963886691198.9,
69
+ "error": 1645.125,
70
+ "pct_error": 3.9645016175365754e-10,
71
+ "target": 414963886689553.75
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 27027089405278.395,
75
+ "error": 288.18359375,
76
+ "pct_error": 1.066276835924443e-09,
77
+ "target": 27027089404990.21
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 2022238400003.7473,
81
+ "error": 3.747314453125,
82
+ "pct_error": 1.8530527622880665e-10,
83
+ "target": 2022238400000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 180556999999922.97,
87
+ "error": -77.03125,
88
+ "pct_error": -4.266312023349967e-11,
89
+ "target": 180557000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 33106719099945.39,
93
+ "error": -54.61328125,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.64961321250344e-10,
95
+ "target": 33106719100000.004
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 120.07300797986053,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 120.073010105342,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 27.01126809651147,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1576,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.901926762029255,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 38.12685249629369,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.962682482174724,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.066276835924443e-09,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.6954805487760485,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.937062352145613,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.988255888501687,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.741775235537473,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.957130017174824,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 38.16329617254714,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2083,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 419.0234038396344,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 66.04911041306183,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.70684192436502,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 41.21930770735076,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.71576597673587,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 78.84590937320442,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.83906399465663,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 77.97567832017643,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 41.21930770735076,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 57.88684693051111,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.69433661096801,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 48.989006117409325,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 19.7442204851438,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 44.57101264971276,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 35.492463692631134,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.253195358208487,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.767464573354232,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.744220485143796,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2099
306
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2100.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:6094345e3a6c594ec765d6b8d3d716f699e109f22977ca35e91c176e51dc2b79
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2100.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,314 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 6.327271725434078e-13,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 968569100.8782666,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 247753034.05838272,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 270.0352386251072,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 68.8165176089595,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 77.03062325873158,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 1761512000000.3323,
63
+ "error": 0.332275390625,
64
+ "pct_error": 1.8863078459017026e-11,
65
+ "target": 1761512000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 432886199854522.7,
69
+ "error": 330.5625,
70
+ "pct_error": 7.636244817029105e-11,
71
+ "target": 432886199854192.1
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 28116962543606.164,
75
+ "error": 562.87890625,
76
+ "pct_error": 2.001919323213907e-09,
77
+ "target": 28116962543043.285
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 2101276799998.2222,
81
+ "error": -1.77783203125,
82
+ "pct_error": -8.460722696076976e-11,
83
+ "target": 2101276800000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 187613999999988.8,
87
+ "error": -11.1875,
88
+ "pct_error": -5.963041137654973e-12,
89
+ "target": 187614000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 34434590200013.492,
93
+ "error": 13.4921875,
94
+ "pct_error": 3.918207657368898e-11,
95
+ "target": 34434590200000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 335.57729876541066,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 337.6261670794885,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 39.58644908315711,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 11842,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.158214799215997,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 2.0367174751857964,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 2.586797458080257,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 2.001919323213907e-09,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 3.2272342351737544,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 9.553595308853929,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 9.270955557626717,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 0.7474868060659189,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.107688928959314,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 53.15952694180555,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 13758,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 882.1273943554921,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 36564,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 117,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 42493,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 42504,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 133.83549044386035,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14906,
139
+ "support_blueprint": {
140
+ "base_weight_scale": 5.0,
141
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
142
+ "clone_total_prior_weight": 162019254.47659642,
143
+ "include_value_overrides": false,
144
+ "mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
145
+ "target_year": 2100
146
+ },
147
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 43.99554258204574,
148
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.72471578733808,
149
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 93.91797422455471,
150
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.69048837337638,
151
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.34571908065742,
152
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 77.17031884852408,
153
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 24.445163005746746,
154
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 62.080905162056396,
155
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 33.26083411329773,
156
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 11.364886423265036,
157
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 18.595249372684293,
158
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 24.147998899162673,
159
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 11.793430437164993,
160
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.00372059934133,
161
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 33.35088879697419,
162
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.4761211623163515,
163
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 20.082299825744666,
164
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 11.793430437164993,
165
+ "validation_issues": [],
166
+ "validation_passed": true
167
+ },
168
+ "contract_version": 1,
169
+ "policyengine_us": {
170
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
171
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
172
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
173
+ "version": "1.700.2"
174
+ },
175
+ "profile": {
176
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
177
+ "approximate_windows": [
178
+ {
179
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
180
+ "end_year": 2074,
181
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
182
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
183
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
184
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
185
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
186
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
187
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
188
+ "start_year": 2026
189
+ },
190
+ {
191
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
192
+ "end_year": 2078,
193
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
194
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
195
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
196
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
197
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
198
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
199
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
200
+ "start_year": 2075
201
+ },
202
+ {
203
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
204
+ "end_year": 2085,
205
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
206
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
207
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
208
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
209
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
210
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
211
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
212
+ "start_year": 2079
213
+ },
214
+ {
215
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
216
+ "end_year": 2095,
217
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
218
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
219
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
220
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
221
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
222
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
223
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
224
+ "start_year": 2086
225
+ },
226
+ {
227
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
228
+ "end_year": null,
229
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
230
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
231
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
232
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
233
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
234
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
235
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
236
+ "start_year": 2096
237
+ }
238
+ ],
239
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
240
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
241
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
242
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
243
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
244
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
245
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
246
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
247
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
248
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
249
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
250
+ "use_greg": false,
251
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
252
+ "use_payroll": true,
253
+ "use_ss": true,
254
+ "use_tob": true
255
+ },
256
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
257
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
258
+ "support_augmentation": {
259
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
260
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
261
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
262
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
263
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
264
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
265
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
266
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
267
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
268
+ "report_summary": {
269
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
270
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
271
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
272
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
273
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
274
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
275
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
276
+ },
277
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
278
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
279
+ "target_year": 2100,
280
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
281
+ "top_n_targets": 60
282
+ },
283
+ "target_source": {
284
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
285
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
286
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
287
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
288
+ "not_law": false,
289
+ "notes": [
290
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
291
+ ],
292
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
293
+ "source_urls": [
294
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
295
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
296
+ ],
297
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
298
+ },
299
+ "tax_assumption": {
300
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
301
+ "end_year": 2100,
302
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
303
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
304
+ "parameter_groups": [
305
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
306
+ ],
307
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
308
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
309
+ "start_year": 2035,
310
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
311
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
312
+ },
313
+ "year": 2100
314
+ }