Upload batch 3 to staging for candidate 5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0 (crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual)
Browse files- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2076.h5 +3 -0
- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2076.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2077.h5 +3 -0
- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2077.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2078.h5 +3 -0
- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2078.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2079.h5 +3 -0
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- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2081.h5 +3 -0
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- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2084.h5 +3 -0
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- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2086.h5 +3 -0
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- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2087.h5 +3 -0
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- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2091.h5 +3 -0
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- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2092.h5 +3 -0
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- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2096.h5 +3 -0
- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2096.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2097.h5 +3 -0
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- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2098.h5 +3 -0
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- staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2100.h5 +3 -0
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2076.h5
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version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
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oid sha256:c4168a528946417e3b923b611a08455f5585944cd969f46d3abb6bbc9c386736
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size 54089530
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2076.h5.metadata.json
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| 1 |
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{
|
| 2 |
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
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| 3 |
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"base_dataset_snapshot": {
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"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
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},
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"calibration_audit": {
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"age_bucket_count": 18,
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
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"age_max_pct_error": 2.6920223355123575e-10,
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
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"constraint_provenance": {
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"age_targets": {
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"classification": "hard",
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
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| 28 |
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},
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| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
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| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
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| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
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| 33 |
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},
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| 34 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
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| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
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| 36 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
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| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
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| 38 |
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},
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| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
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| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
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| 41 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
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| 42 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
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| 43 |
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},
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| 44 |
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"oasdi_tob": {
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"classification": "hard",
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| 46 |
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| 47 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
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| 49 |
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"payroll_total": {
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| 50 |
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"classification": "hard",
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| 51 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
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| 52 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
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| 53 |
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},
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| 54 |
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"ss_total": {
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| 55 |
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"classification": "hard",
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| 56 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
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| 57 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
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| 58 |
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}
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| 59 |
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},
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| 60 |
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"constraints": {
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| 61 |
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"hi_tob": {
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| 62 |
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"achieved": 717048999998.4044,
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| 63 |
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"error": -1.5955810546875,
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"pct_error": -2.225205048312598e-10,
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"target": 717049000000.0
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},
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
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"achieved": 158702903570497.66,
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"error": 55827.46875,
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| 70 |
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"pct_error": 3.51773455391378e-08,
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"target": 158702903514670.2
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| 72 |
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},
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
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"achieved": 10969099133117.445,
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"error": 7683.4296875,
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"pct_error": 7.004613231805386e-08,
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"target": 10969099125434.016
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"oasdi_tob": {
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| 82 |
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|
| 83 |
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| 84 |
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},
|
| 85 |
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|
| 86 |
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|
| 87 |
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| 88 |
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|
| 89 |
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|
| 90 |
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},
|
| 91 |
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| 92 |
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| 93 |
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|
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| 96 |
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}
|
| 97 |
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},
|
| 98 |
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|
| 99 |
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|
| 100 |
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|
| 103 |
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|
| 104 |
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| 105 |
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|
| 106 |
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| 117 |
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| 119 |
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|
| 120 |
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| 121 |
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|
| 122 |
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| 123 |
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| 124 |
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|
| 125 |
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| 126 |
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| 127 |
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| 128 |
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| 129 |
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| 130 |
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| 132 |
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| 133 |
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|
| 135 |
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| 136 |
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|
| 137 |
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| 138 |
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| 139 |
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| 140 |
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| 141 |
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| 142 |
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| 143 |
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| 144 |
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| 146 |
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| 148 |
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| 149 |
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| 150 |
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| 151 |
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| 153 |
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| 156 |
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| 157 |
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|
| 158 |
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"validation_passed": true
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| 159 |
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},
|
| 160 |
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"contract_version": 1,
|
| 161 |
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| 162 |
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| 163 |
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| 164 |
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| 165 |
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| 166 |
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},
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| 167 |
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| 168 |
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| 169 |
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| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 172 |
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|
| 173 |
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| 174 |
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| 175 |
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| 176 |
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| 177 |
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| 178 |
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| 179 |
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|
| 180 |
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| 181 |
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},
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| 182 |
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{
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| 183 |
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| 184 |
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|
| 185 |
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| 187 |
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| 188 |
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| 190 |
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| 191 |
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| 192 |
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|
| 193 |
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},
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| 194 |
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{
|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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|
| 197 |
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| 198 |
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| 199 |
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| 200 |
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|
| 201 |
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|
| 202 |
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|
| 203 |
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|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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},
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| 206 |
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{
|
| 207 |
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|
| 208 |
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|
| 209 |
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|
| 210 |
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|
| 211 |
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| 212 |
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|
| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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| 215 |
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| 216 |
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|
| 217 |
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|
| 218 |
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{
|
| 219 |
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| 220 |
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|
| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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| 223 |
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| 224 |
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| 225 |
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|
| 226 |
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|
| 227 |
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|
| 228 |
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|
| 229 |
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}
|
| 230 |
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],
|
| 231 |
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"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 235 |
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|
| 236 |
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|
| 237 |
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|
| 238 |
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|
| 239 |
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"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 240 |
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"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
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"use_greg": false,
|
| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
|
| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
|
| 249 |
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"source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
|
| 250 |
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"support_augmentation": {
|
| 251 |
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|
| 252 |
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|
| 253 |
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|
| 254 |
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"donors_per_target": 10,
|
| 255 |
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"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
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"max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
|
| 259 |
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"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
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"report_summary": {
|
| 261 |
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"augmented_household_count": 42504,
|
| 262 |
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"augmented_person_count": 104434,
|
| 263 |
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|
| 264 |
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"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 265 |
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"clone_household_count": 1190,
|
| 266 |
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|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
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"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
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"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
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"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
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"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
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],
|
| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
+
],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
+
},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
+
"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
+
"year": 2076
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2077.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
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"not_law": false,
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| 281 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 282 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
+
],
|
| 284 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
+
],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
+
},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
+
"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
+
"year": 2077
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2078.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
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| 1 |
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{
|
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
|
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"base_dataset_snapshot": {
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},
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
| 18 |
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.349082041145888,
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| 19 |
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
|
| 20 |
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| 21 |
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|
| 22 |
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|
| 23 |
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"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 24 |
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"age_targets": {
|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
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},
|
| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 33 |
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},
|
| 34 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 36 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 38 |
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},
|
| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 41 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 42 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 43 |
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},
|
| 44 |
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|
| 45 |
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|
| 46 |
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|
| 47 |
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|
| 48 |
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| 49 |
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|
| 50 |
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|
| 51 |
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|
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| 53 |
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| 54 |
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| 55 |
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|
| 56 |
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|
| 57 |
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| 58 |
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|
| 59 |
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|
| 60 |
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| 61 |
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| 62 |
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|
| 63 |
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| 64 |
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| 65 |
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|
| 66 |
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| 67 |
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| 68 |
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|
| 70 |
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| 71 |
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| 73 |
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| 92 |
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| 93 |
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|
| 95 |
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|
| 96 |
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|
| 97 |
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|
| 98 |
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|
| 99 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 105 |
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|
| 106 |
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|
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| 108 |
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|
| 109 |
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|
| 110 |
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| 165 |
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| 167 |
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| 168 |
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| 169 |
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| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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| 172 |
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|
| 173 |
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|
| 174 |
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| 175 |
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| 176 |
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| 177 |
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| 178 |
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|
| 179 |
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|
| 180 |
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|
| 181 |
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| 182 |
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| 183 |
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| 184 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 193 |
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| 194 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 270 |
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| 271 |
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| 272 |
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| 273 |
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| 274 |
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| 275 |
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|
| 276 |
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| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
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| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
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| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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| 281 |
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| 282 |
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| 283 |
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| 284 |
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| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
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| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
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| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2078
|
| 306 |
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}
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| 1 |
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{
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.712483922035483,
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
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"constraint_provenance": {
|
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|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
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},
|
| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 33 |
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},
|
| 34 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 36 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 38 |
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},
|
| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 41 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 42 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 43 |
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},
|
| 44 |
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"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 45 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 46 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 47 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 48 |
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},
|
| 49 |
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"payroll_total": {
|
| 50 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 51 |
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|
| 52 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 53 |
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},
|
| 54 |
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"ss_total": {
|
| 55 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 56 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 57 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 58 |
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}
|
| 59 |
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},
|
| 60 |
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"constraints": {
|
| 61 |
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|
| 62 |
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"achieved": 808543000687.4209,
|
| 63 |
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"error": 687.4208984375,
|
| 64 |
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"pct_error": 8.501970809684828e-08,
|
| 65 |
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"target": 808543000000.0
|
| 66 |
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|
| 67 |
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|
| 68 |
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|
| 69 |
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|
| 70 |
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|
| 71 |
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| 72 |
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},
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|
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},
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| 96 |
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| 97 |
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},
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| 99 |
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| 158 |
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| 159 |
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},
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| 161 |
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| 162 |
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| 163 |
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| 166 |
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| 167 |
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| 168 |
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| 169 |
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| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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| 172 |
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| 173 |
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{
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| 193 |
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| 194 |
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{
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| 195 |
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| 196 |
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| 197 |
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| 205 |
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| 206 |
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{
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| 209 |
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| 212 |
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| 217 |
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| 218 |
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{
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| 219 |
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| 220 |
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| 221 |
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| 222 |
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| 223 |
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| 224 |
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| 225 |
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| 226 |
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| 227 |
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|
| 228 |
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|
| 229 |
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}
|
| 230 |
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],
|
| 231 |
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"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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|
| 235 |
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| 236 |
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| 237 |
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| 238 |
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|
| 239 |
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|
| 240 |
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"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
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"use_greg": false,
|
| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
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| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
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| 249 |
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"source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
|
| 250 |
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"support_augmentation": {
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| 251 |
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|
| 252 |
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|
| 253 |
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|
| 254 |
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|
| 255 |
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"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
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|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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|
| 259 |
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"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
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"report_summary": {
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|
| 262 |
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| 263 |
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|
| 264 |
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|
| 265 |
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|
| 266 |
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|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
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"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
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"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
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"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
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"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
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],
|
| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2079
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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ADDED
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| 1 |
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| 3 |
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|
| 266 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 267 |
+
"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
+
},
|
| 269 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
+
"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
+
"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
+
},
|
| 275 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 282 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
+
],
|
| 284 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
+
],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
+
},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
+
"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
+
"year": 2080
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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ADDED
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|
| 1 |
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{
|
| 2 |
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
|
| 3 |
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"base_dataset_snapshot": {
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},
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"age_bucket_count": 18,
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
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"age_max_pct_error": 5.052840218723613e-10,
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"baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
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| 15 |
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"calibrated_weight_sum": 204390135.57579654,
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| 16 |
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 17 |
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
| 18 |
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.369032670834466,
|
| 19 |
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
|
| 20 |
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"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.4191533542623334,
|
| 21 |
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
|
| 22 |
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"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.146292645378832,
|
| 23 |
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"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 24 |
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"age_targets": {
|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
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},
|
| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 33 |
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},
|
| 34 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 36 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 38 |
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},
|
| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 41 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 42 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 43 |
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},
|
| 44 |
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"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 45 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 46 |
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|
| 47 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 48 |
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},
|
| 49 |
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|
| 50 |
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|
| 51 |
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|
| 52 |
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|
| 53 |
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|
| 54 |
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|
| 55 |
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|
| 56 |
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|
| 57 |
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|
| 58 |
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}
|
| 59 |
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|
| 60 |
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|
| 61 |
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|
| 62 |
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|
| 63 |
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"error": -0.2274169921875,
|
| 64 |
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|
| 65 |
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|
| 66 |
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|
| 67 |
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| 68 |
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|
| 70 |
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|
| 71 |
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|
| 72 |
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|
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|
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| 92 |
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|
| 93 |
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|
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|
| 95 |
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| 96 |
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|
| 97 |
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|
| 98 |
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|
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|
| 100 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 105 |
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|
| 106 |
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|
| 109 |
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|
| 110 |
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| 153 |
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|
| 154 |
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|
| 155 |
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|
| 156 |
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|
| 157 |
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|
| 158 |
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|
| 159 |
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},
|
| 160 |
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|
| 161 |
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|
| 162 |
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| 163 |
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| 165 |
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|
| 166 |
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|
| 167 |
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|
| 168 |
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|
| 169 |
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| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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|
| 172 |
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|
| 173 |
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|
| 174 |
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|
| 175 |
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|
| 176 |
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|
| 177 |
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|
| 178 |
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|
| 179 |
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|
| 180 |
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|
| 181 |
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|
| 182 |
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{
|
| 183 |
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|
| 184 |
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|
| 185 |
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|
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|
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|
| 188 |
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|
| 189 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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{
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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|
| 241 |
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|
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| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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| 245 |
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|
| 256 |
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| 257 |
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| 259 |
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|
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|
| 266 |
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|
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|
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|
| 270 |
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|
| 271 |
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|
| 272 |
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| 273 |
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|
| 274 |
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|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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|
| 281 |
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| 282 |
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| 283 |
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| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
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| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
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| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
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| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2081
|
| 306 |
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}
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{
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.53972674051693,
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
|
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"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.4376127008447734,
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
|
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"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.32492764890381,
|
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|
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"age_targets": {
|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
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},
|
| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 33 |
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},
|
| 34 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 36 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 38 |
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},
|
| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 41 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 42 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 43 |
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},
|
| 44 |
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"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 45 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 46 |
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|
| 47 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 48 |
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},
|
| 49 |
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|
| 50 |
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|
| 51 |
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|
| 52 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 53 |
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},
|
| 54 |
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|
| 55 |
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|
| 56 |
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| 57 |
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|
| 58 |
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}
|
| 59 |
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},
|
| 60 |
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| 61 |
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|
| 62 |
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| 63 |
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|
| 64 |
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},
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{
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| 171 |
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{
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{
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| 228 |
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|
| 229 |
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}
|
| 230 |
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],
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| 231 |
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"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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|
| 235 |
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|
| 239 |
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|
| 240 |
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|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
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|
| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
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| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
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|
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|
| 252 |
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|
| 253 |
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|
| 254 |
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|
| 255 |
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"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
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|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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|
| 259 |
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|
| 260 |
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|
| 262 |
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| 263 |
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|
| 264 |
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|
| 265 |
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|
| 266 |
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|
| 267 |
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|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
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"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
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"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
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"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
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"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
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],
|
| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2082
|
| 306 |
+
}
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| 1 |
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| 2 |
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| 3 |
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| 4 |
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| 5 |
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| 6 |
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| 7 |
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| 8 |
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| 9 |
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| 10 |
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| 11 |
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| 17 |
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| 18 |
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| 19 |
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| 20 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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| 23 |
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| 24 |
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| 25 |
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| 26 |
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| 27 |
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|
| 28 |
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| 29 |
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|
| 30 |
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| 31 |
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| 32 |
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| 33 |
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| 34 |
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| 35 |
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| 36 |
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| 37 |
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| 38 |
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| 39 |
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| 40 |
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| 41 |
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| 42 |
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| 43 |
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| 44 |
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| 45 |
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| 46 |
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| 47 |
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| 48 |
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| 49 |
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| 50 |
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| 51 |
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| 52 |
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| 53 |
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| 54 |
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| 55 |
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| 56 |
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| 57 |
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| 58 |
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| 59 |
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| 250 |
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"support_augmentation": {
|
| 251 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 252 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 253 |
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"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 254 |
+
"donors_per_target": 10,
|
| 255 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
|
| 259 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
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"report_summary": {
|
| 261 |
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"augmented_household_count": 42504,
|
| 262 |
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"augmented_person_count": 104434,
|
| 263 |
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"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 264 |
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"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 265 |
+
"clone_household_count": 1190,
|
| 266 |
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"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
+
"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
+
"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
+
},
|
| 275 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 282 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
+
],
|
| 284 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
+
],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
+
},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
+
"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
+
"year": 2083
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2084.h5
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|
| 1 |
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{
|
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
|
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"base_dataset_snapshot": {
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},
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"age_bucket_count": 18,
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
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"age_max_pct_error": 2.748013323844491e-11,
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"baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
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"calibrated_weight_sum": 205701911.34372076,
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 17 |
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
| 18 |
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 10.91390180043645,
|
| 19 |
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
|
| 20 |
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"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.3326342022111404,
|
| 21 |
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
|
| 22 |
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"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.333725147003204,
|
| 23 |
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"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 24 |
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"age_targets": {
|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
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},
|
| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 33 |
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},
|
| 34 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 36 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 38 |
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},
|
| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 41 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 42 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 43 |
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},
|
| 44 |
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"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 45 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 46 |
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|
| 47 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 48 |
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},
|
| 49 |
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|
| 50 |
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|
| 51 |
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|
| 52 |
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|
| 53 |
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|
| 54 |
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|
| 55 |
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|
| 56 |
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|
| 57 |
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|
| 58 |
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|
| 59 |
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|
| 60 |
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|
| 61 |
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|
| 62 |
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|
| 63 |
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|
| 64 |
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|
| 65 |
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|
| 66 |
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|
| 67 |
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|
| 68 |
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|
| 69 |
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|
| 70 |
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|
| 71 |
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|
| 72 |
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|
| 73 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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| 95 |
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|
| 96 |
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|
| 97 |
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|
| 98 |
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|
| 99 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 105 |
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|
| 106 |
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| 107 |
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|
| 109 |
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|
| 110 |
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|
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|
| 142 |
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|
| 143 |
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|
| 144 |
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|
| 145 |
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|
| 146 |
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|
| 147 |
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|
| 148 |
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|
| 149 |
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|
| 150 |
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"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 44.5737968844674,
|
| 151 |
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|
| 152 |
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|
| 153 |
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|
| 154 |
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|
| 155 |
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|
| 156 |
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|
| 157 |
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|
| 158 |
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"validation_passed": true
|
| 159 |
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},
|
| 160 |
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"contract_version": 1,
|
| 161 |
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"policyengine_us": {
|
| 162 |
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"locked_version": "1.700.2",
|
| 163 |
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| 164 |
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| 165 |
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|
| 166 |
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| 167 |
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|
| 168 |
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|
| 169 |
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| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 172 |
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|
| 173 |
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|
| 174 |
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|
| 175 |
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|
| 176 |
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|
| 177 |
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|
| 178 |
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|
| 179 |
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|
| 180 |
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|
| 181 |
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|
| 182 |
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{
|
| 183 |
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|
| 184 |
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|
| 185 |
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|
| 186 |
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|
| 187 |
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|
| 188 |
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|
| 189 |
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|
| 190 |
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|
| 191 |
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|
| 192 |
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|
| 193 |
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| 194 |
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{
|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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],
|
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|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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|
| 235 |
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|
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|
| 241 |
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|
| 242 |
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|
| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
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| 253 |
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|
| 254 |
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|
| 255 |
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|
| 256 |
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|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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|
| 259 |
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| 260 |
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|
| 262 |
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|
| 263 |
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|
| 264 |
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|
| 265 |
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|
| 266 |
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|
| 267 |
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|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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|
| 270 |
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|
| 271 |
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|
| 272 |
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"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
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"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
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| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
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],
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| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2084
|
| 306 |
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}
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2085.h5.metadata.json
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| 1 |
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{
|
| 2 |
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
|
| 3 |
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},
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|
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"calibrated_weight_sum": 206258059.85393158,
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.177970322749092,
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
|
| 20 |
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"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.361359718840534,
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
|
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"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.605118097101055,
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"constraint_provenance": {
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"age_targets": {
|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
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},
|
| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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|
| 33 |
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|
| 34 |
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|
| 35 |
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| 36 |
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| 43 |
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| 45 |
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| 48 |
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| 53 |
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| 58 |
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| 59 |
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| 60 |
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| 61 |
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| 62 |
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{
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{
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{
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{
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| 228 |
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| 229 |
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}
|
| 230 |
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],
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| 231 |
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|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
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| 234 |
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| 235 |
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| 239 |
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|
| 240 |
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|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
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|
| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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|
| 245 |
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|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
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| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
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|
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|
| 252 |
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| 253 |
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|
| 254 |
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|
| 255 |
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|
| 256 |
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|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
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| 258 |
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|
| 259 |
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|
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| 264 |
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| 265 |
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| 266 |
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| 267 |
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| 268 |
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},
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| 269 |
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|
| 270 |
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|
| 271 |
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|
| 272 |
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|
| 273 |
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| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
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| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
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],
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| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
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| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2085
|
| 306 |
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}
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| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
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|
| 3 |
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| 4 |
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|
| 5 |
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| 6 |
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| 7 |
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| 8 |
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| 9 |
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| 10 |
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| 11 |
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| 12 |
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| 14 |
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| 15 |
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| 16 |
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|
| 17 |
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| 18 |
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| 19 |
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| 20 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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| 23 |
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|
| 24 |
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|
| 25 |
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|
| 26 |
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|
| 27 |
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|
| 28 |
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| 29 |
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|
| 30 |
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| 31 |
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| 32 |
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| 33 |
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| 34 |
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| 35 |
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| 36 |
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| 37 |
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| 38 |
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| 39 |
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| 40 |
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| 41 |
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| 42 |
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| 43 |
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| 44 |
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| 45 |
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| 46 |
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| 47 |
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| 48 |
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| 49 |
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| 50 |
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| 51 |
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| 52 |
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| 53 |
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| 54 |
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| 55 |
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| 56 |
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| 57 |
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| 58 |
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| 59 |
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| 60 |
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| 61 |
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|
| 234 |
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"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 235 |
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"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 236 |
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"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 237 |
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"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 238 |
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"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 239 |
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"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 240 |
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"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 243 |
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"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 244 |
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"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
|
| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
|
| 249 |
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"source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
|
| 250 |
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"support_augmentation": {
|
| 251 |
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"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 252 |
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"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 253 |
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"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 254 |
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"donors_per_target": 10,
|
| 255 |
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"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
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"max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
|
| 259 |
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"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
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"report_summary": {
|
| 261 |
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"augmented_household_count": 42504,
|
| 262 |
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"augmented_person_count": 104434,
|
| 263 |
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"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 264 |
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"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 265 |
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"clone_household_count": 1190,
|
| 266 |
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"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
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"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
+
"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
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"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
+
},
|
| 275 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
+
],
|
| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
+
],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
+
},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
+
"year": 2086
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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|
| 1 |
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{
|
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
|
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"base_dataset_snapshot": {
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},
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"age_max_pct_error": 1.1851219988461543e-09,
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
| 18 |
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.91907704315249,
|
| 19 |
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
|
| 20 |
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"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.428700329344154,
|
| 21 |
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
|
| 22 |
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"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.225838740513666,
|
| 23 |
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"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 24 |
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"age_targets": {
|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
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},
|
| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 33 |
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},
|
| 34 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 36 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 38 |
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},
|
| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 41 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 42 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 43 |
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},
|
| 44 |
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"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 45 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 46 |
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|
| 47 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 48 |
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},
|
| 49 |
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|
| 50 |
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|
| 51 |
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|
| 52 |
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|
| 53 |
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|
| 54 |
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|
| 55 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 56 |
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|
| 57 |
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|
| 58 |
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}
|
| 59 |
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|
| 60 |
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|
| 61 |
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|
| 62 |
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|
| 63 |
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|
| 64 |
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|
| 65 |
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|
| 66 |
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|
| 67 |
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|
| 68 |
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| 69 |
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|
| 70 |
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|
| 71 |
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|
| 72 |
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},
|
| 73 |
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| 74 |
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|
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|
| 96 |
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|
| 97 |
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| 98 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 105 |
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|
| 106 |
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| 109 |
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|
| 110 |
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| 130 |
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| 131 |
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|
| 132 |
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| 133 |
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| 134 |
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| 135 |
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| 136 |
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| 137 |
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| 138 |
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| 139 |
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| 140 |
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| 141 |
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| 142 |
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| 143 |
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| 144 |
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| 146 |
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| 147 |
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| 148 |
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| 149 |
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| 150 |
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| 151 |
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| 153 |
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| 154 |
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| 156 |
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| 157 |
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|
| 158 |
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|
| 159 |
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},
|
| 160 |
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|
| 161 |
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| 162 |
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| 163 |
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| 169 |
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| 170 |
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|
| 171 |
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| 172 |
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|
| 173 |
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| 174 |
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| 175 |
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| 176 |
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| 232 |
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|
| 233 |
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| 234 |
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| 235 |
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| 241 |
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| 242 |
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| 244 |
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| 245 |
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| 246 |
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| 247 |
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},
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| 255 |
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| 256 |
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| 257 |
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| 266 |
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| 268 |
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| 269 |
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|
| 270 |
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|
| 271 |
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|
| 272 |
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|
| 273 |
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| 274 |
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| 275 |
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| 276 |
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|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
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| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
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| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
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| 280 |
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| 281 |
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| 282 |
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| 283 |
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| 284 |
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| 285 |
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| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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|
| 292 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
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| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
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| 305 |
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"year": 2087
|
| 306 |
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}
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{
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| 17 |
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| 27 |
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| 28 |
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| 33 |
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| 34 |
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| 53 |
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| 58 |
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| 59 |
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| 229 |
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],
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| 232 |
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| 233 |
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| 234 |
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| 240 |
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|
| 241 |
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| 242 |
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|
| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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|
| 245 |
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| 246 |
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| 247 |
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},
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| 253 |
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| 254 |
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| 255 |
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|
| 256 |
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|
| 257 |
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| 258 |
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| 259 |
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| 264 |
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| 265 |
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| 266 |
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| 267 |
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| 268 |
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},
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| 269 |
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|
| 270 |
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|
| 271 |
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|
| 272 |
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|
| 273 |
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| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
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| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
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| 283 |
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],
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| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
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| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
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| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
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| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2088
|
| 306 |
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}
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| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
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|
| 3 |
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| 4 |
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|
| 5 |
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| 6 |
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| 7 |
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| 8 |
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| 9 |
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| 10 |
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| 11 |
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| 12 |
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| 14 |
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| 15 |
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| 16 |
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| 17 |
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| 18 |
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| 19 |
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| 20 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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| 23 |
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| 24 |
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|
| 25 |
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| 26 |
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| 27 |
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| 28 |
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| 29 |
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| 30 |
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| 31 |
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| 32 |
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| 33 |
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| 34 |
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| 35 |
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| 36 |
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| 37 |
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| 38 |
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| 39 |
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| 40 |
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| 41 |
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| 42 |
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| 43 |
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| 44 |
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| 45 |
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| 46 |
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| 47 |
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| 48 |
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| 49 |
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| 50 |
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| 51 |
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| 52 |
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| 53 |
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| 54 |
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| 55 |
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| 57 |
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| 58 |
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| 59 |
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| 219 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 220 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 221 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 222 |
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"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 223 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 224 |
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"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 225 |
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"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 226 |
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"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 227 |
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"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 228 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 229 |
+
}
|
| 230 |
+
],
|
| 231 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 232 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 235 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 236 |
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"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 237 |
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"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 238 |
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"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 239 |
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"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 240 |
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"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 243 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 244 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
|
| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
|
| 249 |
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"source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
|
| 250 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 251 |
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"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 252 |
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"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 253 |
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"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 254 |
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"donors_per_target": 10,
|
| 255 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
|
| 259 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 261 |
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"augmented_household_count": 42504,
|
| 262 |
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"augmented_person_count": 104434,
|
| 263 |
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"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 264 |
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"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 265 |
+
"clone_household_count": 1190,
|
| 266 |
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"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
+
},
|
| 269 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
+
"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
+
"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
+
},
|
| 275 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 282 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
+
],
|
| 284 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
+
],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
+
},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
+
"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
+
"year": 2089
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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ADDED
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|
| 1 |
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{
|
| 2 |
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
|
| 3 |
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"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
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"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
|
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},
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"calibration_audit": {
|
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"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 8 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 9 |
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"age_max_pct_error": 1.7395061455893727e-11,
|
| 10 |
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"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
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"approximate_solution_used": false,
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"approximation_method": null,
|
| 14 |
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"baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
|
| 15 |
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"calibrated_weight_sum": 209064336.0312823,
|
| 16 |
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 17 |
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
| 18 |
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.327672055621406,
|
| 19 |
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
|
| 20 |
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"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.397830150083531,
|
| 21 |
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
|
| 22 |
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"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.98842732827244,
|
| 23 |
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"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 24 |
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"age_targets": {
|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
+
},
|
| 29 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 33 |
+
},
|
| 34 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 36 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 38 |
+
},
|
| 39 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 41 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 42 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 43 |
+
},
|
| 44 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 45 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 46 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 47 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 48 |
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},
|
| 49 |
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"payroll_total": {
|
| 50 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 51 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 52 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 53 |
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},
|
| 54 |
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"ss_total": {
|
| 55 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 56 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 57 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 58 |
+
}
|
| 59 |
+
},
|
| 60 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 61 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 62 |
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"achieved": 1212548999999.5864,
|
| 63 |
+
"error": -0.41357421875,
|
| 64 |
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"pct_error": -3.410783553901739e-11,
|
| 65 |
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"target": 1212549000000.0
|
| 66 |
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},
|
| 67 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 68 |
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"achieved": 284148340461317.4,
|
| 69 |
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"error": 692.625,
|
| 70 |
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"pct_error": 2.437547229300039e-10,
|
| 71 |
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"target": 284148340460624.75
|
| 72 |
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},
|
| 73 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 74 |
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"achieved": 18959529319421.78,
|
| 75 |
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"error": 134.26171875,
|
| 76 |
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"pct_error": 7.081490077573583e-10,
|
| 77 |
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"target": 18959529319287.52
|
| 78 |
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},
|
| 79 |
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|
| 80 |
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|
| 81 |
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"error": 2.836669921875,
|
| 82 |
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|
| 83 |
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"target": 1440490100000.0
|
| 84 |
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},
|
| 85 |
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|
| 86 |
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|
| 87 |
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"error": -55.890625,
|
| 88 |
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"pct_error": -4.384369337213772e-11,
|
| 89 |
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"target": 127477000000000.0
|
| 90 |
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},
|
| 91 |
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|
| 92 |
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"achieved": 23680276799964.08,
|
| 93 |
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"error": -35.921875,
|
| 94 |
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|
| 95 |
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"target": 23680276800000.0
|
| 96 |
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}
|
| 97 |
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},
|
| 98 |
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|
| 99 |
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|
| 100 |
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|
| 101 |
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|
| 102 |
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"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 103 |
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"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 104 |
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|
| 105 |
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"hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
|
| 106 |
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"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 45.80428276909979,
|
| 107 |
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"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1573,
|
| 108 |
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"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 109 |
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"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 110 |
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"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.4457604486804,
|
| 111 |
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"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 34.560173475388666,
|
| 112 |
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"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.466521600963477,
|
| 113 |
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"max_constraint_pct_error": 7.081490077573583e-10,
|
| 114 |
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"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.164386412675839,
|
| 115 |
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|
| 116 |
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"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.019699577363657,
|
| 117 |
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|
| 118 |
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|
| 119 |
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"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 120 |
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"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 121 |
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|
| 122 |
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|
| 123 |
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|
| 124 |
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|
| 125 |
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|
| 126 |
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|
| 127 |
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|
| 128 |
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|
| 129 |
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|
| 130 |
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|
| 131 |
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|
| 132 |
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|
| 133 |
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|
| 134 |
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|
| 135 |
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|
| 136 |
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|
| 137 |
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|
| 138 |
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|
| 139 |
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|
| 140 |
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"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
|
| 141 |
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"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
|
| 142 |
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|
| 143 |
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|
| 144 |
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|
| 145 |
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|
| 146 |
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|
| 147 |
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|
| 148 |
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|
| 149 |
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|
| 150 |
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|
| 151 |
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|
| 152 |
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|
| 153 |
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"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 27.826970305389843,
|
| 154 |
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|
| 155 |
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|
| 156 |
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|
| 157 |
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"validation_issues": [],
|
| 158 |
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"validation_passed": true
|
| 159 |
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},
|
| 160 |
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"contract_version": 1,
|
| 161 |
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"policyengine_us": {
|
| 162 |
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"locked_version": "1.700.2",
|
| 163 |
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"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
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| 164 |
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| 165 |
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"version": "1.700.2"
|
| 166 |
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},
|
| 167 |
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"profile": {
|
| 168 |
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|
| 169 |
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"approximate_windows": [
|
| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 172 |
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|
| 173 |
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"max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
|
| 174 |
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|
| 175 |
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|
| 176 |
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|
| 177 |
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|
| 178 |
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|
| 179 |
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|
| 180 |
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|
| 181 |
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},
|
| 182 |
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{
|
| 183 |
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|
| 184 |
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|
| 185 |
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|
| 186 |
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|
| 187 |
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|
| 188 |
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|
| 189 |
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|
| 190 |
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|
| 191 |
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|
| 192 |
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|
| 193 |
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|
| 194 |
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{
|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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|
| 197 |
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|
| 198 |
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|
| 199 |
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|
| 200 |
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|
| 201 |
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|
| 202 |
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|
| 203 |
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|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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},
|
| 206 |
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{
|
| 207 |
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|
| 208 |
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|
| 209 |
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|
| 210 |
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|
| 211 |
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|
| 212 |
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|
| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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|
| 215 |
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|
| 216 |
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|
| 217 |
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|
| 218 |
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{
|
| 219 |
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|
| 220 |
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|
| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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|
| 223 |
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|
| 224 |
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|
| 225 |
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|
| 226 |
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|
| 227 |
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|
| 228 |
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|
| 229 |
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}
|
| 230 |
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],
|
| 231 |
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"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 235 |
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"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 236 |
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|
| 237 |
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|
| 238 |
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|
| 239 |
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|
| 240 |
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|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
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"use_greg": false,
|
| 243 |
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"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 244 |
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"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
|
| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
|
| 249 |
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"source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
|
| 250 |
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"support_augmentation": {
|
| 251 |
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|
| 252 |
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|
| 253 |
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"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 254 |
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"donors_per_target": 10,
|
| 255 |
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"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
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"max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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|
| 259 |
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"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
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"report_summary": {
|
| 261 |
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|
| 262 |
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|
| 263 |
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|
| 264 |
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"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 265 |
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"clone_household_count": 1190,
|
| 266 |
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|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
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"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
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"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
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"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
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"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
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],
|
| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2090
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2091.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
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| 276 |
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|
| 277 |
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|
| 278 |
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|
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|
| 287 |
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|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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|
| 290 |
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|
| 291 |
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|
| 292 |
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|
| 293 |
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|
| 294 |
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|
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| 296 |
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|
| 298 |
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| 299 |
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|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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|
| 302 |
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|
| 303 |
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|
| 304 |
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| 306 |
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|
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2092.h5
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size 54089530
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2092.h5.metadata.json
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| 1 |
+
{
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| 2 |
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
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| 3 |
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"base_dataset_snapshot": {
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| 4 |
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| 5 |
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},
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| 23 |
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| 24 |
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| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
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| 26 |
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| 27 |
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| 28 |
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},
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| 29 |
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| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
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| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
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| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
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| 33 |
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},
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| 34 |
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| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
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| 36 |
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| 37 |
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| 38 |
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| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
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| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
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| 41 |
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| 42 |
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| 43 |
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| 44 |
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| 45 |
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| 46 |
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| 47 |
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| 48 |
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},
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| 49 |
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| 50 |
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| 51 |
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| 52 |
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| 53 |
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},
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| 54 |
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| 55 |
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| 56 |
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| 57 |
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| 58 |
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| 59 |
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| 139 |
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| 140 |
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|
| 201 |
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|
| 202 |
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|
| 203 |
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|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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},
|
| 206 |
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{
|
| 207 |
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|
| 208 |
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|
| 209 |
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|
| 210 |
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|
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|
| 212 |
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|
| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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|
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|
| 216 |
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|
| 217 |
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|
| 218 |
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{
|
| 219 |
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|
| 220 |
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|
| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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|
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|
| 224 |
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|
| 225 |
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|
| 226 |
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|
| 227 |
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|
| 228 |
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|
| 229 |
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}
|
| 230 |
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],
|
| 231 |
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"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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|
| 235 |
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|
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|
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|
| 239 |
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|
| 240 |
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|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
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|
| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
|
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
|
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|
| 252 |
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|
| 253 |
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|
| 254 |
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|
| 255 |
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"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
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|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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|
| 259 |
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"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
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"report_summary": {
|
| 261 |
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|
| 262 |
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|
| 263 |
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|
| 264 |
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|
| 265 |
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"clone_household_count": 1190,
|
| 266 |
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|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
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"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
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"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
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"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
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"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
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],
|
| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
+
],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
+
},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2092
|
| 306 |
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}
|
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| 1 |
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{
|
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
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},
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"age_max_pct_error": 1.3501788855153124e-08,
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.453259708235192,
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
|
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|
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"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 24 |
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"age_targets": {
|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
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},
|
| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 33 |
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},
|
| 34 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 36 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 38 |
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},
|
| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 41 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 42 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 43 |
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},
|
| 44 |
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"oasdi_tob": {
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| 45 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 46 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 47 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
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| 48 |
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},
|
| 49 |
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| 50 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 51 |
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| 52 |
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},
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"ss_total": {
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| 55 |
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"classification": "hard",
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| 56 |
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|
| 57 |
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|
| 58 |
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}
|
| 59 |
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},
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| 60 |
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| 61 |
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"error": 23.902587890625,
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|
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"target": 1350009000000.0
|
| 66 |
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},
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| 67 |
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"target": 322259562413468.8
|
| 72 |
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},
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| 73 |
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},
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| 96 |
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}
|
| 97 |
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|
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|
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|
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| 103 |
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|
| 104 |
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|
| 105 |
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|
| 106 |
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|
| 107 |
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|
| 108 |
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|
| 109 |
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|
| 110 |
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|
| 111 |
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|
| 112 |
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|
| 113 |
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|
| 114 |
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|
| 115 |
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|
| 116 |
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|
| 117 |
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|
| 118 |
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|
| 119 |
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"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 120 |
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"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 121 |
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|
| 122 |
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|
| 123 |
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|
| 124 |
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|
| 125 |
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|
| 126 |
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"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 2070,
|
| 127 |
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|
| 128 |
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|
| 129 |
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|
| 130 |
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|
| 131 |
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|
| 132 |
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|
| 133 |
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|
| 134 |
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|
| 135 |
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|
| 136 |
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|
| 137 |
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|
| 138 |
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|
| 139 |
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|
| 140 |
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"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
|
| 141 |
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"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
|
| 142 |
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"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 40.277115013999016,
|
| 143 |
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|
| 144 |
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|
| 145 |
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|
| 146 |
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|
| 147 |
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"top_100_weight_share_pct": 40.27711501399902,
|
| 148 |
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|
| 149 |
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|
| 150 |
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|
| 151 |
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|
| 152 |
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"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 37.26181180935541,
|
| 153 |
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|
| 154 |
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"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.64424766240491,
|
| 155 |
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|
| 156 |
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"top_10_weight_share_pct": 19.292625306069173,
|
| 157 |
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"validation_issues": [],
|
| 158 |
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"validation_passed": true
|
| 159 |
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},
|
| 160 |
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"contract_version": 1,
|
| 161 |
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"policyengine_us": {
|
| 162 |
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"locked_version": "1.700.2",
|
| 163 |
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"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
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| 164 |
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"package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
|
| 165 |
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"version": "1.700.2"
|
| 166 |
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},
|
| 167 |
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"profile": {
|
| 168 |
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"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 169 |
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"approximate_windows": [
|
| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 172 |
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"end_year": 2074,
|
| 173 |
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"max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
|
| 174 |
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"max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
|
| 175 |
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|
| 176 |
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"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 177 |
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|
| 178 |
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|
| 179 |
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|
| 180 |
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|
| 181 |
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},
|
| 182 |
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{
|
| 183 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 184 |
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|
| 185 |
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|
| 186 |
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|
| 187 |
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|
| 188 |
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|
| 189 |
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|
| 190 |
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|
| 191 |
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|
| 192 |
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|
| 193 |
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},
|
| 194 |
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{
|
| 195 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 196 |
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|
| 197 |
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|
| 198 |
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|
| 199 |
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|
| 200 |
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|
| 201 |
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|
| 202 |
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|
| 203 |
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|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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},
|
| 206 |
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{
|
| 207 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 208 |
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"end_year": 2095,
|
| 209 |
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|
| 210 |
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|
| 211 |
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|
| 212 |
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|
| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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|
| 215 |
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|
| 216 |
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|
| 217 |
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},
|
| 218 |
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{
|
| 219 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 220 |
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"end_year": null,
|
| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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|
| 223 |
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|
| 224 |
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|
| 225 |
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|
| 226 |
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|
| 227 |
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|
| 228 |
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"start_year": 2096
|
| 229 |
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}
|
| 230 |
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],
|
| 231 |
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"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 232 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 235 |
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"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 236 |
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|
| 237 |
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"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 238 |
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"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 239 |
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"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 240 |
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"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
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"use_greg": false,
|
| 243 |
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"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 244 |
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"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
|
| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
|
| 249 |
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"source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
|
| 250 |
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"support_augmentation": {
|
| 251 |
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"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 252 |
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"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 253 |
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"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 254 |
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"donors_per_target": 10,
|
| 255 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
|
| 259 |
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"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
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"report_summary": {
|
| 261 |
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"augmented_household_count": 42504,
|
| 262 |
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"augmented_person_count": 104434,
|
| 263 |
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"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 264 |
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"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 265 |
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"clone_household_count": 1190,
|
| 266 |
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"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
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"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
+
"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
+
"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
+
},
|
| 275 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
+
],
|
| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
+
],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
+
},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
+
"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
+
"year": 2093
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2094.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
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|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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|
| 290 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
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| 303 |
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|
| 304 |
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|
| 305 |
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"year": 2094
|
| 306 |
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| 185 |
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| 186 |
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|
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|
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|
| 192 |
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|
| 193 |
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{
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{
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|
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|
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
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|
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| 257 |
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| 259 |
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|
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|
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|
| 270 |
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|
| 271 |
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|
| 272 |
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| 273 |
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|
| 274 |
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|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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|
| 281 |
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| 282 |
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|
| 283 |
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| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
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| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2095
|
| 306 |
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}
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{
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
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|
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"classification": "hard",
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
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},
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"hi_tob": {
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|
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
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|
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
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},
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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|
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|
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
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| 49 |
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| 55 |
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| 57 |
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| 58 |
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|
| 59 |
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| 60 |
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| 61 |
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| 62 |
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| 63 |
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|
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| 67 |
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| 71 |
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|
| 72 |
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| 73 |
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| 87 |
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| 88 |
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| 89 |
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|
| 90 |
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},
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| 91 |
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| 92 |
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| 93 |
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| 94 |
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|
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}
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| 97 |
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},
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| 98 |
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| 99 |
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|
| 103 |
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|
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|
| 120 |
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| 121 |
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|
| 122 |
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| 123 |
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| 124 |
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| 125 |
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| 127 |
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| 128 |
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| 130 |
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| 132 |
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| 133 |
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| 135 |
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| 137 |
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| 138 |
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| 139 |
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| 140 |
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| 141 |
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| 142 |
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| 143 |
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| 144 |
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| 146 |
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| 147 |
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| 148 |
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| 149 |
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| 153 |
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| 155 |
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| 156 |
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| 157 |
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"validation_issues": [],
|
| 158 |
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"validation_passed": true
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| 159 |
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},
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| 160 |
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"contract_version": 1,
|
| 161 |
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|
| 162 |
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| 163 |
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| 164 |
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| 165 |
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| 166 |
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},
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| 167 |
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| 168 |
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| 169 |
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| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 172 |
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|
| 173 |
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| 174 |
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| 175 |
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| 176 |
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| 177 |
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| 178 |
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| 179 |
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| 180 |
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| 181 |
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},
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| 182 |
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{
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| 183 |
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| 184 |
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|
| 185 |
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| 186 |
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| 187 |
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| 188 |
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| 191 |
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| 192 |
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| 193 |
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},
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| 194 |
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{
|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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|
| 197 |
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| 198 |
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|
| 199 |
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| 200 |
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|
| 201 |
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|
| 202 |
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|
| 203 |
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|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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},
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| 206 |
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{
|
| 207 |
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|
| 208 |
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|
| 209 |
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| 210 |
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| 211 |
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| 212 |
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|
| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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|
| 215 |
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|
| 216 |
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| 217 |
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| 218 |
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{
|
| 219 |
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|
| 220 |
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|
| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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|
| 223 |
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| 224 |
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|
| 225 |
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|
| 226 |
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|
| 227 |
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|
| 228 |
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|
| 229 |
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}
|
| 230 |
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],
|
| 231 |
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"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 235 |
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|
| 236 |
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|
| 237 |
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|
| 238 |
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|
| 239 |
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"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 240 |
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"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
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"use_greg": false,
|
| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
|
| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
|
| 249 |
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"source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
|
| 250 |
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"support_augmentation": {
|
| 251 |
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|
| 252 |
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|
| 253 |
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|
| 254 |
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"donors_per_target": 10,
|
| 255 |
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"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
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"max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
|
| 259 |
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"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
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"report_summary": {
|
| 261 |
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"augmented_household_count": 42504,
|
| 262 |
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"augmented_person_count": 104434,
|
| 263 |
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|
| 264 |
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"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 265 |
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"clone_household_count": 1190,
|
| 266 |
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|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
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"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 271 |
+
"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
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"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
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"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
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],
|
| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
+
],
|
| 289 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
+
},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
+
],
|
| 299 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
+
"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
+
"year": 2096
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2097.h5.metadata.json
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| 245 |
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|
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|
| 259 |
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|
| 268 |
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},
|
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|
| 270 |
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|
| 271 |
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|
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|
| 273 |
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|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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|
| 276 |
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|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
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| 283 |
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],
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| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
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| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
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| 304 |
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},
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| 305 |
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"year": 2097
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| 306 |
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| 169 |
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| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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|
| 172 |
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|
| 173 |
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| 174 |
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| 175 |
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| 176 |
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| 177 |
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| 178 |
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|
| 179 |
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|
| 180 |
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|
| 181 |
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|
| 182 |
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{
|
| 183 |
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|
| 184 |
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|
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| 188 |
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|
| 189 |
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|
| 191 |
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|
| 192 |
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|
| 193 |
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| 194 |
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{
|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 232 |
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|
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
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| 234 |
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| 241 |
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|
| 244 |
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| 257 |
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| 258 |
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| 259 |
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|
| 265 |
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|
| 268 |
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|
| 270 |
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|
| 271 |
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|
| 272 |
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|
| 273 |
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|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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|
| 281 |
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| 282 |
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| 283 |
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],
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| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
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| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
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| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
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},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2098
|
| 306 |
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}
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| 1 |
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{
|
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"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
|
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"calibration_quality": "exact",
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"clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
|
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"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 11.864525640227347,
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"clone_older_donor_count": 117,
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"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.263770277617374,
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"clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
|
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|
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"age_targets": {
|
| 25 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 26 |
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"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 27 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 28 |
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},
|
| 29 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 30 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 31 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 32 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 33 |
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},
|
| 34 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 35 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 36 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 37 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 38 |
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},
|
| 39 |
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"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 40 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 41 |
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"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 42 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 43 |
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},
|
| 44 |
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"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 45 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 46 |
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"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 47 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 48 |
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},
|
| 49 |
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"payroll_total": {
|
| 50 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 51 |
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|
| 52 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
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| 53 |
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},
|
| 54 |
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"ss_total": {
|
| 55 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 56 |
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|
| 57 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 58 |
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}
|
| 59 |
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},
|
| 60 |
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"constraints": {
|
| 61 |
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|
| 62 |
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"achieved": 1694186999999.4712,
|
| 63 |
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"error": -0.52880859375,
|
| 64 |
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"pct_error": -3.1213118371820824e-11,
|
| 65 |
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"target": 1694187000000.0
|
| 66 |
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},
|
| 67 |
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"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 68 |
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| 69 |
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"error": 1645.125,
|
| 70 |
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"pct_error": 3.9645016175365754e-10,
|
| 71 |
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| 72 |
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| 73 |
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|
| 74 |
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| 75 |
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},
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}
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| 97 |
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},
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| 157 |
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| 158 |
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| 159 |
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},
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| 160 |
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| 161 |
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| 162 |
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| 163 |
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| 166 |
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| 167 |
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| 168 |
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| 169 |
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| 170 |
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{
|
| 171 |
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| 172 |
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| 173 |
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| 174 |
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| 176 |
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| 182 |
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{
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| 184 |
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| 193 |
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| 194 |
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{
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| 195 |
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| 196 |
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| 197 |
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| 199 |
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| 200 |
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| 205 |
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| 206 |
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{
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| 207 |
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| 208 |
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| 209 |
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| 212 |
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| 213 |
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| 217 |
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| 218 |
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{
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| 219 |
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| 220 |
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|
| 221 |
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| 222 |
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| 223 |
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| 224 |
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| 225 |
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| 226 |
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| 227 |
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|
| 228 |
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|
| 229 |
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}
|
| 230 |
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],
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| 231 |
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"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 232 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 233 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 234 |
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|
| 235 |
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| 236 |
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| 237 |
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| 238 |
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|
| 239 |
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|
| 240 |
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|
| 241 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 242 |
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"use_greg": false,
|
| 243 |
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|
| 244 |
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"use_payroll": true,
|
| 245 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 246 |
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"use_tob": true
|
| 247 |
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},
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| 248 |
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"run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
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| 249 |
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|
| 250 |
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| 251 |
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|
| 252 |
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|
| 253 |
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|
| 254 |
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|
| 255 |
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"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 256 |
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|
| 257 |
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"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 258 |
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|
| 259 |
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"report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
|
| 260 |
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"report_summary": {
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|
| 262 |
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| 263 |
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|
| 264 |
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|
| 265 |
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|
| 266 |
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|
| 267 |
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"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 268 |
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},
|
| 269 |
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"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 270 |
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|
| 271 |
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"target_year": 2100,
|
| 272 |
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"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 273 |
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"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 274 |
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},
|
| 275 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 276 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 277 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 278 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 279 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 280 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 281 |
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"notes": [
|
| 282 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 283 |
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],
|
| 284 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 285 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 286 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 287 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 288 |
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],
|
| 289 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 290 |
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},
|
| 291 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 292 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 293 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 294 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 295 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 296 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 297 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 298 |
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],
|
| 299 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 300 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 301 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 302 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 303 |
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"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 304 |
+
},
|
| 305 |
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"year": 2099
|
| 306 |
+
}
|
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staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2100.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
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| 1 |
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| 3 |
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|
| 268 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 269 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 42504,
|
| 270 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 104434,
|
| 271 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 272 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 273 |
+
"clone_household_count": 1190,
|
| 274 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 275 |
+
"successful_target_count": 1190
|
| 276 |
+
},
|
| 277 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
|
| 278 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 279 |
+
"target_year": 2100,
|
| 280 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "fixed",
|
| 281 |
+
"top_n_targets": 60
|
| 282 |
+
},
|
| 283 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 284 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 285 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 286 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 287 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 288 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 289 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 290 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 291 |
+
],
|
| 292 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 293 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 294 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 295 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 296 |
+
],
|
| 297 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 298 |
+
},
|
| 299 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 301 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 304 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 305 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 308 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 309 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 310 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
|
| 311 |
+
"wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
|
| 312 |
+
},
|
| 313 |
+
"year": 2100
|
| 314 |
+
}
|