baogorek commited on
Commit
9e4bae5
·
verified ·
1 Parent(s): 1b5ea30

Upload batch 2 to staging for candidate 5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0 (crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual)

Browse files
Files changed (50) hide show
  1. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2051.h5 +3 -0
  2. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2051.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  3. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2052.h5 +3 -0
  4. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2052.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  5. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2053.h5 +3 -0
  6. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2053.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  7. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2054.h5 +3 -0
  8. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2054.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  9. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2055.h5 +3 -0
  10. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2055.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  11. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2056.h5 +3 -0
  12. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2056.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  13. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2057.h5 +3 -0
  14. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2057.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  15. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2058.h5 +3 -0
  16. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2058.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  17. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2059.h5 +3 -0
  18. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2059.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  19. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2060.h5 +3 -0
  20. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2060.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  21. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2061.h5 +3 -0
  22. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2061.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  23. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2062.h5 +3 -0
  24. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2062.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  25. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2063.h5 +3 -0
  26. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2063.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  27. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2064.h5 +3 -0
  28. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2064.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  29. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2065.h5 +3 -0
  30. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2065.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  31. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2066.h5 +3 -0
  32. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2066.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  33. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2067.h5 +3 -0
  34. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2067.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  35. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2068.h5 +3 -0
  36. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2068.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  37. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2069.h5 +3 -0
  38. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2069.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  39. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2070.h5 +3 -0
  40. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2070.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  41. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2071.h5 +3 -0
  42. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2071.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  43. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2072.h5 +3 -0
  44. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2072.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  45. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2073.h5 +3 -0
  46. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2073.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  47. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2074.h5 +3 -0
  48. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2074.h5.metadata.json +235 -0
  49. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2075.h5 +3 -0
  50. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2075.h5.metadata.json +306 -0
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2051.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:c4952cb1cdfdb67c5c69de5097138152dd7fc71fe1e546eed9eadf91f53d55b9
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2051.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.699164111376271e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 186842694.5529644,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 240281000897.61127,
47
+ "error": 897.6112670898438,
48
+ "pct_error": 3.735673095624888e-07,
49
+ "target": 240281000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 287884803423.6898,
53
+ "error": 3423.6898193359375,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.189256890025433e-06,
55
+ "target": 287884800000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 29376000007482.418,
59
+ "error": 7482.41796875,
60
+ "pct_error": 2.5471194065733935e-08,
61
+ "target": 29376000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 4999462406953.317,
65
+ "error": 6953.3173828125,
66
+ "pct_error": 1.390813016778064e-07,
67
+ "target": 4999462400000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 314.94449786989935,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 29.887053725691786,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1349,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.189256890025433e-06,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.706033239146723,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 9.202315567363469,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.160399281513222,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.945677119013492,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 41.93149286823639,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1545,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 588.504183674651,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 71.01013310589495,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 87.22162958642393,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.75903496523635,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.00541973167324,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 76.08238212983647,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.120108951345514,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 45.51194197985899,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 39.44140862135536,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.899778592862969,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.622165898044273,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 12.947421142088356,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2051
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2052.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:868a54e28d8b650247f629772bff35109c79568ee60aeb27ef11d81e3587fa17
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2052.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 5.049098527122134e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 187231769.5503206,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 251078002097.602,
47
+ "error": 2097.6019897460938,
48
+ "pct_error": 8.354383855798172e-07,
49
+ "target": 251078000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 301890605732.9011,
53
+ "error": 5732.901123046875,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.8989995458775048e-06,
55
+ "target": 301890600000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 30494000015758.4,
59
+ "error": 15758.3984375,
60
+ "pct_error": 5.167704609923263e-08,
61
+ "target": 30494000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 5208682716023.197,
65
+ "error": 16023.197265625,
66
+ "pct_error": 3.076247525238003e-07,
67
+ "target": 5208682700000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 310.01531367969983,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 36.05079908946947,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1355,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.8989995458775048e-06,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 9.496988199150177,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.971056532593101,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.1561832440905793,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.952213859520771,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 47.89884550827677,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1558,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 584.4448720129066,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 76.22613465632216,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.63402699733156,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.3876427421985,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.085560324994155,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.86653891798376,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.14100740633984,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 44.04553050967229,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 37.956708674240666,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.038622146263236,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 28.603497232264548,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.056044136726111,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2052
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2053.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:e1e117d55324ce1cfcf2b060d099921044eccb7edbe5331a7b6b1badedb80079
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2053.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 3.652492308230569e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 187587187.9917207,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 262512001344.30176,
47
+ "error": 1344.3017578125,
48
+ "pct_error": 5.12091545457922e-07,
49
+ "target": 262512000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 313443904080.9243,
53
+ "error": 4080.92431640625,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.3019632273610206e-06,
55
+ "target": 313443900000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 31661000008795.656,
59
+ "error": 8795.65625,
60
+ "pct_error": 2.778072786709201e-08,
61
+ "target": 31661000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 5428764808209.95,
65
+ "error": 8209.9501953125,
66
+ "pct_error": 1.5123053765955195e-07,
67
+ "target": 5428764800000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 306.6935915146409,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 31.684172896669352,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1360,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.3019632273610206e-06,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.966883843722643,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 7.533509648038658,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.290723368751635,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.273053307974509,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 46.54216605360532,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1571,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 555.8277995833134,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 78.31171960339667,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.22297128118504,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 82.91880668131581,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.33075817898155,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.60131402510643,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.25475947643211,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 43.832336612754204,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 37.81181433618415,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.553616508806893,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.43363023392219,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.117197814957876,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2053
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2054.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:db0d023d65dca2644160069ddd5558b048bec3fc5fcd921dbb437f84edec2819
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2054.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.566357329394861e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 188007627.7130175,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 274469000708.25522,
47
+ "error": 708.2552185058594,
48
+ "pct_error": 2.580456148074498e-07,
49
+ "target": 274469000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 328690002796.70526,
53
+ "error": 2796.7052612304688,
54
+ "pct_error": 8.508641154980282e-07,
55
+ "target": 328690000000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 32869000003436.08,
59
+ "error": 3436.078125,
60
+ "pct_error": 1.0453856597401807e-08,
61
+ "target": 32869000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 5658706202969.584,
65
+ "error": 2969.583984375,
66
+ "pct_error": 5.247814393288346e-08,
67
+ "target": 5658706200000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 302.45915499244944,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 31.011896980264435,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1360,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 8.508641154980282e-07,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 12.496300718238288,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 8.15695680458933,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.351261645611142,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.241275067875714,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 44.783469806727865,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1582,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 551.4333428376939,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 78.84773624581128,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.7787270569654,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 82.54335263282768,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.383550334327715,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.30126875182695,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.25751473292534,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 43.32572637240028,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 37.94996459077145,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.596533757350507,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.523413779415854,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.155329798070255,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2054
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2055.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:39796f222d0c56109d0330f0773c2e4010847c34096df0a28490e7aa7a6b08c3
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2055.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.0867101965543274e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 188531873.56211177,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 287161000431.22974,
47
+ "error": 431.229736328125,
48
+ "pct_error": 1.501700218094118e-07,
49
+ "target": 287161000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 344652402125.4382,
53
+ "error": 2125.4381713867188,
54
+ "pct_error": 6.166903730792877e-07,
55
+ "target": 344652400000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 34124000000310.883,
59
+ "error": 310.8828125,
60
+ "pct_error": 9.110386018637909e-10,
61
+ "target": 34124000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 5902615500659.616,
65
+ "error": 659.6162109375,
66
+ "pct_error": 1.1174981852324618e-08,
67
+ "target": 5902615500000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 297.1325419968361,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 33.48198166309391,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1368,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 6.166903730792877e-07,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.449648505324094,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 8.810496356705128,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.1784070152726882,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.3112508243195045,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 44.16073762127657,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1594,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 564.5454005412557,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 78.53624635621499,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.54911308793368,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 82.24777504518308,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.2409043022848,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.26859768851473,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.2814489915778,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 42.058668865059964,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 36.99230694031719,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.390757646136362,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.2177891654781,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.208733809140814,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2055
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2056.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:a757b11ca12529885816e06119581323167bf4487162d281666a41ecb925e9ba
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2056.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 8.980705292341575e-08,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 189123653.2042625,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 300557000073.62756,
47
+ "error": 73.6275634765625,
48
+ "pct_error": 2.449703832436526e-08,
49
+ "target": 300557000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 357863200832.1649,
53
+ "error": 832.1649169921875,
54
+ "pct_error": 2.325371586103817e-07,
55
+ "target": 357863200000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 35431999998355.71,
59
+ "error": -1644.2890625,
60
+ "pct_error": -4.640689383890269e-09,
61
+ "target": 35432000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 6159009997904.984,
65
+ "error": -2095.015625,
66
+ "pct_error": -3.401546068280454e-08,
67
+ "target": 6159010000000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 293.1047984445588,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 35.58646146370458,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1377,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 2.325371586103817e-07,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.608618126070004,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.423378800982066,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.208361668020659,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.07422100283194,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 43.671764105276594,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1603,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 582.788406594079,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 77.42121656962074,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.69838575834919,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 82.24344892781265,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.97101147872905,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.21502092376035,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.25757222897769,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 42.01468055291524,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 36.34381669849754,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.06260612949244,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 28.3237735369466,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.220757231936744,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2056
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2057.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:0a24e591f0a0ad60416447af53b7e22f563c4d6867033812e46ba6608a32fa8e
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2057.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.4595721728604014e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 189779062.70570388,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 314676000465.9542,
47
+ "error": 465.9542236328125,
48
+ "pct_error": 1.480742807309145e-07,
49
+ "target": 314676000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 375258001641.1196,
53
+ "error": 1641.11962890625,
54
+ "pct_error": 4.3733101730176305e-07,
55
+ "target": 375258000000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 36789999999290.016,
59
+ "error": -709.984375,
60
+ "pct_error": -1.929829777113346e-09,
61
+ "target": 36790000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 6428665298367.224,
65
+ "error": -1632.7763671875,
66
+ "pct_error": -2.5398372616902297e-08,
67
+ "target": 6428665300000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 290.43890683515576,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 35.48405940551335,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1384,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 4.3733101730176305e-07,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.216964842839875,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.888883465698257,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.2302295015466715,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.323866852765807,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 44.403508460624856,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1606,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 593.3972053738852,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 78.42500174101494,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.41304495781694,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.78253353073046,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.616455233861313,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.80950953455735,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.279987244594565,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.36648891843382,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 35.288976416414904,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.882813227701854,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 28.211628188179688,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.222729955355828,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2057
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2058.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:91763e86104f13c85e94efb627566262882ae94136fb2307283372572b6b8be2
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2058.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.1553418915138955e-06,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 190432214.8275729,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 329538002954.6478,
47
+ "error": 2954.6478271484375,
48
+ "pct_error": 8.966030707076081e-07,
49
+ "target": 329538000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 393470306096.5309,
53
+ "error": 6096.5308837890625,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.5494259373043054e-06,
55
+ "target": 393470300000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 38201000009110.94,
59
+ "error": 9110.9375,
60
+ "pct_error": 2.3849997382267482e-08,
61
+ "target": 38201000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 6712393814842.368,
65
+ "error": 14842.3681640625,
66
+ "pct_error": 2.211188527714584e-07,
67
+ "target": 6712393800000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 289.7608143077038,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 33.40358355254681,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1390,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.5494259373043054e-06,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.262007687715428,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 9.308514889579817,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.2414606688277667,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.569146565191121,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 46.873246142623636,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1621,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 593.1238164829159,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 81.90380101824107,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.28337593483833,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.28655674222635,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.495508496020584,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.3495908555494,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.278744572756814,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 41.627856934597,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 36.23919182668997,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.954046345400215,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 28.147704540800767,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.21150466579275,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2058
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2059.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:26d77bf4ec0866de89cadcd63557a4382be6d34cea4cb60b33c54d6661bf6a32
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2059.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.1740387396623816e-05,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 191078096.33031216,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 344937040336.68054,
47
+ "error": 40336.68054199219,
48
+ "pct_error": 1.1693926874180558e-05,
49
+ "target": 344937000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 412568062367.68665,
53
+ "error": 62367.68664550781,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.5116947180951458e-05,
55
+ "target": 412568000000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 39670000188145.5,
59
+ "error": 188145.5,
60
+ "pct_error": 4.742765313839173e-07,
61
+ "target": 39670000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 7005625370142.188,
65
+ "error": 370142.1884765625,
66
+ "pct_error": 5.283499880118654e-06,
67
+ "target": 7005625000000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 287.47039815589056,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 30.135387569358958,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1395,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.5116947180951458e-05,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.434211612177668,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 8.572401932395174,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.25647776243654,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.190181171275613,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 43.769938286190154,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1634,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 591.811920479746,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 81.10394402893864,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.50899646270267,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.21072239375543,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.48575169581896,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.29160392650104,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.354491436966725,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 43.81060199399627,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 37.506513075147225,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.996444358971424,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 28.67829972381687,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.256171158484689,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2059
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2060.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:155a07156193c117c35d0a8114e524ade25b4558af2207a9a49d8d08fda91752
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2060.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.7139823444943893e-09,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 191741256.4411169,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 360892999993.3238,
47
+ "error": -6.67620849609375,
48
+ "pct_error": -1.8499135467004764e-09,
49
+ "target": 360893000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 428438400037.21796,
53
+ "error": 37.21795654296875,
54
+ "pct_error": 8.686886269524102e-09,
55
+ "target": 428438400000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 41195999999856.664,
59
+ "error": -143.3359375,
60
+ "pct_error": -3.479365411690455e-10,
61
+ "target": 41196000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 7309190399675.508,
65
+ "error": -324.4921875,
66
+ "pct_error": -4.4395092991420775e-09,
67
+ "target": 7309190400000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 283.4255755544853,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 26.021714163442976,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1395,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 8.686886269524102e-09,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.904420843386836,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.631428794513683,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.2739604682062706,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.147824942873778,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 37.562448314672245,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1649,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 590.4985885862571,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 76.89452836304483,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.01762371168805,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.40530026351314,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.50122477600854,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.43731205306567,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.522153427125644,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 45.19560106702097,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 38.51720275327454,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.0199168845759425,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.311689695535247,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.353494513329103,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2060
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2061.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:0e7393e9e628d56a525395f9f4a04584d89858e647943b13b7256658f32d625e
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2061.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.79481699376592e-08,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 192323233.98883933,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 377293000026.65894,
47
+ "error": 26.658935546875,
48
+ "pct_error": 7.0658441971822954e-09,
49
+ "target": 377293000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 449211000650.4185,
53
+ "error": 650.4185180664062,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.447913158997456e-07,
55
+ "target": 449211000000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 42781999999727.73,
59
+ "error": -272.2734375,
60
+ "pct_error": -6.36420544855313e-10,
61
+ "target": 42782000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 7623320097732.443,
65
+ "error": -2267.556640625,
66
+ "pct_error": -2.9745001008484477e-08,
67
+ "target": 7623320100000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 277.4473113423979,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 25.919077961221966,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1400,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.447913158997456e-07,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.85886217975065,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.425286862791525,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.3081779606399697,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.855493330791085,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 33.45360958837479,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1659,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 588.2933858851741,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 73.79559868257934,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.18120391353071,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.62410118349176,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.498279757295922,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.73503203041906,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.676535442714766,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 44.60984124846374,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 38.83017484360104,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.056955861487923,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.562748011123286,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.561713521831303,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2061
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2062.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:33fb68d56659b8463f9cda106338ce6be0f5689df6ef619b76ca377765571a7e
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2062.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 6.220985193633272e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 192921450.71128148,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 394399006766.6304,
47
+ "error": 6766.63037109375,
48
+ "pct_error": 1.7156814218833592e-06,
49
+ "target": 394399000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 470947414142.0416,
53
+ "error": 14142.041625976562,
54
+ "pct_error": 3.0028919633013284e-06,
55
+ "target": 470947400000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 44429000035597.016,
59
+ "error": 35597.015625,
60
+ "pct_error": 8.012112724796867e-08,
61
+ "target": 44429000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 7950651346882.478,
65
+ "error": 46882.4775390625,
66
+ "pct_error": 5.896683902998299e-07,
67
+ "target": 7950651300000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 271.2970201525674,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 25.106667414733458,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1407,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 3.0028919633013284e-06,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 15.951179323920314,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 15.203442308447881,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.3535820469343378,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.537772225602656,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 29.82686120012879,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1674,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 583.681185171191,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 70.56719312801086,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.34779484103798,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.7455361265786,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.6621023567978,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.97705115931326,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 35.80618228078135,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 44.705536718660845,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 38.49611790427846,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.085038160975726,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.545397080127735,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.790445372362093,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2062
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2063.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:f35fa3de1fcbe6f9e3a971c13a30bc5208e44abd1127c1ec7c0dc10b47ab37d8
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2063.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 8.269803799875768e-06,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 193574839.43515247,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 412059106691.46094,
47
+ "error": 106691.4609375,
48
+ "pct_error": 2.5892277789709725e-05,
49
+ "target": 412059000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 489041757677.6971,
53
+ "error": 157677.69708251953,
54
+ "pct_error": 3.224218493529376e-05,
55
+ "target": 489041600000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 46136000516541.37,
59
+ "error": 516541.3671875,
60
+ "pct_error": 1.1196058765118347e-06,
61
+ "target": 46136000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 8286994731688.497,
65
+ "error": 931688.4970703125,
66
+ "pct_error": 1.1242780187313673e-05,
67
+ "target": 8286993800000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 266.0084419442463,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 22.120836836107973,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1413,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 3.224218493529376e-05,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 17.130995542594345,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 16.229966844762853,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.395178428539272,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.823628119135713,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 27.707845697458367,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1683,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 575.007640632033,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 68.6429177109226,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.5021914050775,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.51389582331772,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.838102668575164,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.86147143637977,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 36.039043317770854,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 45.3054726619942,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 39.13507134824076,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.284062432074433,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 30.216275253255176,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 13.957377523230482,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2063
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2064.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:39f56fdedf88bda11a3dd44ba0a3f0a4167bf7a6873370dfaf8c5651a731a327
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2064.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.3678033811094266e-09,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 194235552.46215802,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 430271999988.58417,
47
+ "error": -11.41583251953125,
48
+ "pct_error": -2.6531664899252685e-09,
49
+ "target": 430272000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 512551400074.43115,
53
+ "error": 74.43121337890625,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.452170716515578e-08,
55
+ "target": 512551399999.99994
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 47902000000029.34,
59
+ "error": 29.34375,
60
+ "pct_error": 6.125788067304079e-11,
61
+ "target": 47902000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 8637127999511.45,
65
+ "error": -488.55078125,
66
+ "pct_error": -5.656403161444406e-09,
67
+ "target": 8637128000000.001
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 259.9221107568356,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 19.086326794457587,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1417,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.452170716515578e-08,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 18.27968788802285,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 17.063468642886246,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.4408571883775485,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.081995256893138,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 25.868740045279303,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1693,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 567.6505706788807,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 67.15188035140082,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.38849219960227,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.03969410123017,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.91573458892079,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.46054384471142,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 36.18862282837507,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 47.364624373204414,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.353981839121744,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.446440815425008,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 30.446561080659396,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 14.116377495146482,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2064
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2065.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:6a91df27fc41179c7ee4a9b6839e5a3e094325eb56294a85c98ee291faf9cfca
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2065.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 5.853915936563204e-09,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 194926443.19542244,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 449286999993.83545,
47
+ "error": -6.16455078125,
48
+ "pct_error": -1.3720741488736599e-09,
49
+ "target": 449287000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 532143100286.9083,
53
+ "error": 286.9083251953125,
54
+ "pct_error": 5.391563382017215e-08,
55
+ "target": 532143100000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 49733000000005.19,
59
+ "error": 5.1875,
60
+ "pct_error": 1.0430699937667143e-11,
61
+ "target": 49733000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 9002161798527.758,
65
+ "error": -1472.2421875,
66
+ "pct_error": -1.6354318220541202e-08,
67
+ "target": 9002161800000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 253.837773247684,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 18.724183968237057,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1419,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 5.391563382017215e-08,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 16.410653235872697,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 15.867868970408356,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.4826285010207063,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.324596803298048,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 28.108867901100417,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1696,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 557.7966448114872,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 70.56906820720602,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.3431891475855,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 80.49542943368765,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.03831576101726,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.24500133568964,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 36.30035361392997,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 48.494222443699314,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.09394720282988,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.646279736827862,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 30.057136477653014,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 14.188752007324782,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2065
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2066.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:c77cbed59f75cdd1cd5ceb35c4ff26e52921c993d424766e9ea5e4e0df2c27f1
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2066.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 5.472079790945732e-08,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 195579524.0809998,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 469050000796.4658,
47
+ "error": 796.4658203125,
48
+ "pct_error": 1.6980403375173223e-07,
49
+ "target": 469050000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 557614802754.0232,
53
+ "error": 2754.023193359375,
54
+ "pct_error": 4.93893489440986e-07,
55
+ "target": 557614800000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 51631000002616.19,
59
+ "error": 2616.1875,
60
+ "pct_error": 5.067086633998954e-09,
61
+ "target": 51631000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 9379550399650.383,
65
+ "error": -349.6171875,
66
+ "pct_error": -3.727440789699259e-09,
67
+ "target": 9379550400000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 246.6672868629025,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 19.0450004853022,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1420,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 4.93893489440986e-07,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 15.139126043087831,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 15.065404663909298,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.528025995870425,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.796875177562476,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 29.34092959256032,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1706,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 551.0013932871652,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 72.59632831065169,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.37400121020619,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 80.45374705218045,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.11921261061448,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.28143335551228,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 36.451984446989925,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 48.56756358166079,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.251545232135875,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.764744090668879,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 29.903042797328176,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 14.350330138891836,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2066
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2067.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:1348b35fb4e8872ff3aa53d2e6a2ff61f8aef94816ad399792ca61e2335b892a
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2067.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.115170791278258e-06,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 196206032.1128253,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 489656018757.42413,
47
+ "error": 18757.42413330078,
48
+ "pct_error": 3.830735073868344e-06,
49
+ "target": 489656000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 584218232753.1799,
53
+ "error": 32753.179931640625,
54
+ "pct_error": 5.6063265286224605e-06,
55
+ "target": 584218200000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 53598000063736.02,
59
+ "error": 63736.0234375,
60
+ "pct_error": 1.1891492861207507e-07,
61
+ "target": 53598000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 9775691537161.715,
65
+ "error": 137161.71484375,
66
+ "pct_error": 1.4030896560804896e-06,
67
+ "target": 9775691400000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 239.14820744947966,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 20.014385415163495,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1427,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 5.6063265286224605e-06,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 14.96825501005739,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 14.553526901791422,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.5655883517848432,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.4328638591934615,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 29.645539105556885,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1715,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 546.1192876016537,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8423,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 73.17207725366094,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.64872445029864,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 80.85591568783087,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.221635285757685,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 74.67835283849716,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 36.653628745448465,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 48.384803312925584,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.839590772652194,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.825468229925556,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 30.095610932619625,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 14.563010997677415,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2067
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2068.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:e6fd2c0a7eb15901423c0451f9d2590d2cd083296459e0c4cca6e8df4d4db088
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2068.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 1.6171934388068222e-05,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 196836688.90783712,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 511168282771.4313,
47
+ "error": 282771.43127441406,
48
+ "pct_error": 5.531868803884712e-05,
49
+ "target": 511168000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 606443700723.7117,
53
+ "error": 400723.7116699219,
54
+ "pct_error": 6.607768799983806e-05,
55
+ "target": 606443300000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 55637000939215.84,
59
+ "error": 939215.84375,
60
+ "pct_error": 1.6881137440012941e-06,
61
+ "target": 55637000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 10184986429063.414,
65
+ "error": 2429063.4140625,
66
+ "pct_error": 2.384945733898551e-05,
67
+ "target": 10184984000000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 231.91891914673187,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 20.785074513645895,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1431,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 6.607768799983806e-05,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 15.027370328726326,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.672021893299721,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.5990555931783532,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.999955878361195,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 30.205234289105643,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1727,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 540.5020211133954,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8430,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 73.04632092885353,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 86.99296069789173,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.3479967945273,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.3469155011649,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.2460758431177,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 36.87631665991171,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 48.71143676490509,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 41.52807557562887,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.896720282436695,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 30.51267809918055,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 14.781544400367308,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2068
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2069.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:4c97e038e32a7010f3d671c5db04c0f9ac1fe9ef7efb715a989f12dc62925bfc
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2069.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 6.064937404050946e-09,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 197450681.66037244,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 533595999966.9945,
47
+ "error": -33.0054931640625,
48
+ "pct_error": -6.18548361758006e-09,
49
+ "target": 533596000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 635206000892.7512,
53
+ "error": 892.751220703125,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.4054514924341475e-07,
55
+ "target": 635206000000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 57745999999028.62,
59
+ "error": -971.3828125,
60
+ "pct_error": -1.682164673743636e-09,
61
+ "target": 57746000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 10614122997753.783,
65
+ "error": -2246.216796875,
66
+ "pct_error": -2.116252842439267e-08,
67
+ "target": 10614123000000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 224.22337034750586,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 24.438851226082104,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1432,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.4054514924341475e-07,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 12.43759300555068,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 12.815649269483304,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.644292837264119,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.633738533704208,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 31.85556458217568,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1734,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 542.4407977645047,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8428,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 73.68863423000924,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 87.12952264569093,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.67411360206505,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.321536676474075,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 75.74085128096483,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 37.05504894124951,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 47.71636219506083,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 41.681098797833855,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.805211166933643,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 30.44871372405098,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 15.031531944969196,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2069
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2070.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:c67e102eb548645bc5508dace2482fcc4b758f031efae35ec0ae8f8fabe33baa
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2070.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 5.947257634891466e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 198113107.47887602,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 556960010462.8887,
47
+ "error": 10462.888671875,
48
+ "pct_error": 1.8785709336173153e-06,
49
+ "target": 556960000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 659230022068.2953,
53
+ "error": 22068.295288085938,
54
+ "pct_error": 3.34758662198109e-06,
55
+ "target": 659230000000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 59930000021477.3,
59
+ "error": 21477.296875,
60
+ "pct_error": 3.5837304980810945e-08,
61
+ "target": 59930000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 11060910076214.86,
65
+ "error": 76214.859375,
66
+ "pct_error": 6.890469172518355e-07,
67
+ "target": 11060910000000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 216.844474853118,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 28.69194438927297,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1435,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 3.34758662198109e-06,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.370076495008615,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.378574356102884,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.698259283635575,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.330899760686919,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 34.315540332658635,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1742,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 543.2379186820591,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8428,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 73.6233755718475,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 87.48387217976794,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 82.18214505068137,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.265832651508575,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 76.46872056151669,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 37.255862052418536,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 46.61495195267232,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 41.109147371033885,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.684896564040724,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 30.385486234791838,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 15.299098717762188,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2070
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2071.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:32be7bb1ea32f79dd4ea2ff863a9fb185e8c16fac73541a7a760c743668650db
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2071.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.2417274972495784e-05,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 198750392.84637704,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 581150460082.4727,
47
+ "error": 460082.47265625,
48
+ "pct_error": 7.916759402155209e-05,
49
+ "target": 581150000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 690376212480.6785,
53
+ "error": 612480.6784667969,
54
+ "pct_error": 8.871702280132682e-05,
55
+ "target": 690375600000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 62196001231835.47,
59
+ "error": 1231835.46875,
60
+ "pct_error": 1.980570243665187e-06,
61
+ "target": 62196000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 11523277177826.752,
65
+ "error": 3877826.751953125,
66
+ "pct_error": 3.365212861829047e-05,
67
+ "target": 11523273300000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 209.42276434140538,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 31.317857982917687,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1439,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 8.871702280132682e-05,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.224419681636666,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 10.508373112533791,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.7593180410824207,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.475049895127342,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 35.28312157455728,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1751,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 541.6179401490484,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8428,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 72.16571265166046,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 87.44086048115497,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 82.2963772882276,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.26191720114997,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 76.92421102001978,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 37.42820254156691,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 45.74914180452398,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.137054421491115,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.526699239819466,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 30.407122208623637,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 15.571688584528365,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2071
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2072.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:8bd2bc5fb54f44ec46d1f9bfd94be1cd76337de68d0fee48ef9818c33dc311a3
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2072.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 4.682516832207776e-09,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 199354524.3170209,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 606265999983.1456,
47
+ "error": -16.8543701171875,
48
+ "pct_error": -2.780028917535785e-09,
49
+ "target": 606266000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 722881600936.2573,
53
+ "error": 936.25732421875,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.2951738212990205e-07,
55
+ "target": 722881600000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 64542999998975.32,
59
+ "error": -1024.6796875,
60
+ "pct_error": -1.5875922834389477e-09,
61
+ "target": 64543000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 12004207597882.31,
65
+ "error": -2117.689453125,
66
+ "pct_error": -1.7641226507320648e-08,
67
+ "target": 12004207600000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 201.97815612519364,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 28.894055430110544,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1445,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.2951738212990205e-07,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 12.838601827557916,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 11.601813461475603,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.8146857998799188,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 5.583883356861489,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 32.9469899686176,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1759,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 535.282302708223,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8429,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 68.02201950641938,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 87.41538308629747,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 82.45618635961863,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.23668999619453,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 77.38000842561028,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 37.701496053334125,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 44.85788238056433,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 40.17262646486003,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.639666243974908,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 31.40229685032314,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 15.83123774475403,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2072
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2073.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:7cf90316384d3710b29ebbe89b9372b31d9d46f9cd62552a0c64dee60d790398
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2073.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 2.516917811080275e-07,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 199940769.1845893,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 632641004681.193,
47
+ "error": 4681.1929931640625,
48
+ "pct_error": 7.399446120570849e-07,
49
+ "target": 632641000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 750120012681.4639,
53
+ "error": 12681.4638671875,
54
+ "pct_error": 1.6905913543416388e-06,
55
+ "target": 750120000000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 66975000006090.17,
59
+ "error": 6090.171875,
60
+ "pct_error": 9.093201754385964e-09,
61
+ "target": 66975000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 12504649229035.494,
65
+ "error": 29035.494140625,
66
+ "pct_error": 2.321975904819865e-07,
67
+ "target": 12504649200000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 195.42343301099615,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 25.26969131652398,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1446,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 1.6905913543416388e-06,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 15.215896354616842,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 13.831099463561214,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.8570208854742514,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 6.595897720532286,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 29.0457634493478,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1766,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 529.2779627439518,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8429,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 62.81518561603674,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 87.83272740531675,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.18713248689681,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.33109480685348,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 78.26120117869935,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 37.99569884082577,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 46.335892155179955,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 41.64759948047297,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.673775590015921,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.50977893622522,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 16.05426793057063,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2073
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2074.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:2a9451b7d09d85f276b078491afebd199c1894776e8630990339b33e8cd857c7
3
+ size 52551920
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2074.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 4.497384511587402e-06,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 161309969.28033406,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 200492372.12563473,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "constraint_provenance": {
18
+ "age_targets": {
19
+ "classification": "hard",
20
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
21
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
22
+ },
23
+ "hi_tob": {
24
+ "classification": "hard",
25
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
26
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
27
+ },
28
+ "oasdi_tob": {
29
+ "classification": "hard",
30
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
31
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
32
+ },
33
+ "payroll_total": {
34
+ "classification": "hard",
35
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
36
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
37
+ },
38
+ "ss_total": {
39
+ "classification": "hard",
40
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
41
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
42
+ }
43
+ },
44
+ "constraints": {
45
+ "hi_tob": {
46
+ "achieved": 659863101224.6224,
47
+ "error": 101224.62243652344,
48
+ "pct_error": 1.534024826918973e-05,
49
+ "target": 659863000000.0
50
+ },
51
+ "oasdi_tob": {
52
+ "achieved": 785361462769.0813,
53
+ "error": 162769.08129882812,
54
+ "pct_error": 2.0725375861890333e-05,
55
+ "target": 785361300000.0
56
+ },
57
+ "payroll_total": {
58
+ "achieved": 69501000228515.73,
59
+ "error": 228515.7265625,
60
+ "pct_error": 3.287948757032273e-07,
61
+ "target": 69501000000000.0
62
+ },
63
+ "ss_total": {
64
+ "achieved": 13025572434805.25,
65
+ "error": 834805.25,
66
+ "pct_error": 6.408972102230048e-06,
67
+ "target": 13025571600000.0
68
+ }
69
+ },
70
+ "effective_sample_size": 189.21442213131772,
71
+ "entropy_error": null,
72
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
73
+ "greg_attempted": false,
74
+ "greg_error": null,
75
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
76
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 22.791043536687976,
77
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1451,
78
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
79
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
80
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 2.0725375861890333e-05,
81
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 16.71473659561507,
82
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 15.175104726588536,
83
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.8924681545686077,
84
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.228072151400944,
85
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
86
+ "method_used": "entropy",
87
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
88
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
89
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
90
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41314,
91
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 26.205834469885264,
92
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1773,
93
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 41314,
94
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 524.7874759410547,
95
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8429,
96
+ "positive_weight_count": 9343,
97
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.61461005954398,
98
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 41314,
99
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 59.29268359672486,
100
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2043,
101
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 87.91191374713897,
102
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.56035816532058,
103
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.3725718501582,
104
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 78.79376773605607,
105
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 38.25059154753953,
106
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 46.91261282665096,
107
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 43.03424412505906,
108
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.761778032758011,
109
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 33.361081409561386,
110
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 16.260104660618136,
111
+ "validation_issues": [],
112
+ "validation_passed": true
113
+ },
114
+ "contract_version": 1,
115
+ "policyengine_us": {
116
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
117
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
118
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
119
+ "version": "1.700.2"
120
+ },
121
+ "profile": {
122
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
123
+ "approximate_windows": [
124
+ {
125
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
126
+ "end_year": 2074,
127
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
128
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
129
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
130
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
131
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
132
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
133
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
134
+ "start_year": 2026
135
+ },
136
+ {
137
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
138
+ "end_year": 2078,
139
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
140
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
141
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
142
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
143
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
144
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
145
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
146
+ "start_year": 2075
147
+ },
148
+ {
149
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
150
+ "end_year": 2085,
151
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
152
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
153
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
154
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
155
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
156
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
157
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
158
+ "start_year": 2079
159
+ },
160
+ {
161
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
162
+ "end_year": 2095,
163
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
164
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
165
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
166
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
167
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
168
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
169
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
170
+ "start_year": 2086
171
+ },
172
+ {
173
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
174
+ "end_year": null,
175
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
176
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
177
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
178
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
179
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
180
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
181
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
182
+ "start_year": 2096
183
+ }
184
+ ],
185
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
186
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
187
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
188
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
189
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
190
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
191
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
192
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
193
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
194
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
195
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
196
+ "use_greg": false,
197
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
198
+ "use_payroll": true,
199
+ "use_ss": true,
200
+ "use_tob": true
201
+ },
202
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
203
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
204
+ "target_source": {
205
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
206
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
207
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
208
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
209
+ "not_law": false,
210
+ "notes": [
211
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
212
+ ],
213
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
214
+ "source_urls": [
215
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
216
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
217
+ ],
218
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
219
+ },
220
+ "tax_assumption": {
221
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
222
+ "end_year": 2100,
223
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
224
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
225
+ "parameter_groups": [
226
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
227
+ ],
228
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
229
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
230
+ "start_year": 2035,
231
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
232
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
233
+ },
234
+ "year": 2074
235
+ }
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2075.h5 ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
1
+ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
2
+ oid sha256:1809a2c6da7a99c0631ab8e5081750522fc7e55feaa1576aa12660a81c3c5b61
3
+ size 54089530
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/2075.h5.metadata.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920",
3
+ "base_dataset_snapshot": {
4
+ "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5@688f972425f5e858fc52bda2b696e0af74fea920"
5
+ },
6
+ "calibration_audit": {
7
+ "age_bucket_count": 18,
8
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
9
+ "age_max_pct_error": 4.494347967747639e-11,
10
+ "approximate_entropy_error": null,
11
+ "approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
12
+ "approximate_solution_used": false,
13
+ "approximation_method": null,
14
+ "baseline_weight_sum": 162019254.47659642,
15
+ "calibrated_weight_sum": 201147832.41658288,
16
+ "calibration_quality": "exact",
17
+ "clone_donor_family_count": 1179,
18
+ "clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 12.43702465123448,
19
+ "clone_older_donor_count": 117,
20
+ "clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 3.3589137841384074,
21
+ "clone_worker_donor_count": 167,
22
+ "clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 25.674763099395914,
23
+ "constraint_provenance": {
24
+ "age_targets": {
25
+ "classification": "hard",
26
+ "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
27
+ "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
28
+ },
29
+ "hi_tob": {
30
+ "classification": "hard",
31
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
32
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
33
+ },
34
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
35
+ "classification": "hard",
36
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
37
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
38
+ },
39
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
40
+ "classification": "hard",
41
+ "scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
42
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
43
+ },
44
+ "oasdi_tob": {
45
+ "classification": "hard",
46
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
47
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
48
+ },
49
+ "payroll_total": {
50
+ "classification": "hard",
51
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
52
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
53
+ },
54
+ "ss_total": {
55
+ "classification": "hard",
56
+ "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
57
+ "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
58
+ }
59
+ },
60
+ "constraints": {
61
+ "hi_tob": {
62
+ "achieved": 688164999999.4895,
63
+ "error": -0.510498046875,
64
+ "pct_error": -7.418250664811491e-11,
65
+ "target": 688165000000.0
66
+ },
67
+ "income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
68
+ "achieved": 152282394751289.62,
69
+ "error": 3342.96875,
70
+ "pct_error": 2.1952430913193765e-09,
71
+ "target": 152282394747946.66
72
+ },
73
+ "income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
74
+ "achieved": 10550587406039.613,
75
+ "error": 535.0078125,
76
+ "pct_error": 5.070881761719428e-09,
77
+ "target": 10550587405504.605
78
+ },
79
+ "oasdi_tob": {
80
+ "achieved": 815080300002.1603,
81
+ "error": 2.1602783203125,
82
+ "pct_error": 2.650387109481729e-10,
83
+ "target": 815080300000.0
84
+ },
85
+ "payroll_total": {
86
+ "achieved": 72130999999934.0,
87
+ "error": -66.0,
88
+ "pct_error": -9.150018715947375e-11,
89
+ "target": 72131000000000.0
90
+ },
91
+ "ss_total": {
92
+ "achieved": 13561019599975.229,
93
+ "error": -24.771484375,
94
+ "pct_error": -1.82666828200735e-10,
95
+ "target": 13561019600000.0
96
+ }
97
+ },
98
+ "donor_family_count": 42493,
99
+ "donor_family_effective_sample_size": 179.97926289625673,
100
+ "effective_sample_size": 179.9792676567843,
101
+ "entropy_error": null,
102
+ "fell_back_to_ipf": false,
103
+ "greg_attempted": false,
104
+ "greg_error": null,
105
+ "hi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
106
+ "hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 18.344087095566803,
107
+ "hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1561,
108
+ "largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
109
+ "lp_fallback_used": false,
110
+ "max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 24.209914852847124,
111
+ "max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 36.3682837275911,
112
+ "max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.692271190071326,
113
+ "max_constraint_pct_error": 5.070881761719428e-09,
114
+ "max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.185080066685729,
115
+ "max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 19.6539553262898,
116
+ "max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 17.974429713899582,
117
+ "max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 1.9208618509927449,
118
+ "max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.482774675239861,
119
+ "method_requested": "entropy",
120
+ "method_used": "entropy",
121
+ "negative_weight_count": 0,
122
+ "negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
123
+ "negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
124
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 42504,
125
+ "oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 21.124576552276075,
126
+ "oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 1959,
127
+ "payroll_total_contributor_count": 42504,
128
+ "payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 516.7939660645576,
129
+ "payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 8652,
130
+ "positive_clone_donor_family_count": 222,
131
+ "positive_clone_older_donor_count": 24,
132
+ "positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 96,
133
+ "positive_donor_family_count": 9565,
134
+ "positive_weight_count": 9570,
135
+ "positive_weight_pct": 22.51552795031056,
136
+ "ss_total_contributor_count": 42504,
137
+ "ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 52.44285078079407,
138
+ "ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 2238,
139
+ "top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 98.49088607124662,
140
+ "top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
141
+ "top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
142
+ "top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 38.57253741067601,
143
+ "top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 89.15420503475747,
144
+ "top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 85.18771399068041,
145
+ "top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 32.49736762182752,
146
+ "top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 79.9097551788422,
147
+ "top_100_weight_share_pct": 38.57253741067601,
148
+ "top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 55.64297169233022,
149
+ "top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 98.5300894312799,
150
+ "top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 46.274703576138826,
151
+ "top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 16.603590351191155,
152
+ "top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 49.3905419760498,
153
+ "top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 45.885216299037396,
154
+ "top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 7.945446243940355,
155
+ "top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 35.04010819619444,
156
+ "top_10_weight_share_pct": 16.603590351191155,
157
+ "validation_issues": [],
158
+ "validation_passed": true
159
+ },
160
+ "contract_version": 1,
161
+ "policyengine_us": {
162
+ "locked_version": "1.700.2",
163
+ "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
164
+ "package_tree_sha256": "e3b3e42002892f1c9ae576a3b96aeeda55b0f504cfc8623adbb9e06cce441f18",
165
+ "version": "1.700.2"
166
+ },
167
+ "profile": {
168
+ "allow_greg_fallback": false,
169
+ "approximate_windows": [
170
+ {
171
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
172
+ "end_year": 2074,
173
+ "max_age_error_pct": 1.0,
174
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 1.0,
175
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
176
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
177
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
178
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
179
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
180
+ "start_year": 2026
181
+ },
182
+ {
183
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
184
+ "end_year": 2078,
185
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
186
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
187
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
188
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
189
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
190
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
191
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
192
+ "start_year": 2075
193
+ },
194
+ {
195
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
196
+ "end_year": 2085,
197
+ "max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
198
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
199
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
200
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
201
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
202
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
203
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
204
+ "start_year": 2079
205
+ },
206
+ {
207
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
208
+ "end_year": 2095,
209
+ "max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
210
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
211
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
212
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
213
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
214
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
215
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
216
+ "start_year": 2086
217
+ },
218
+ {
219
+ "age_bucket_size": 5,
220
+ "end_year": null,
221
+ "max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
222
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
223
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
224
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
225
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
226
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
227
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
228
+ "start_year": 2096
229
+ }
230
+ ],
231
+ "benchmark_tob": false,
232
+ "calibration_method": "entropy",
233
+ "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
234
+ "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
235
+ "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
236
+ "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
237
+ "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
238
+ "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
239
+ "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
240
+ "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
241
+ "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
242
+ "use_greg": false,
243
+ "use_h6_reform": false,
244
+ "use_payroll": true,
245
+ "use_ss": true,
246
+ "use_tob": true
247
+ },
248
+ "run_id": "crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual",
249
+ "source_sha": "5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0",
250
+ "support_augmentation": {
251
+ "activation_start_year": 2075,
252
+ "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
253
+ "clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
254
+ "donors_per_target": 10,
255
+ "family": "targeted_donor",
256
+ "max_distance_for_clone": 5.0,
257
+ "name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
258
+ "non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "clone_all",
259
+ "report_file": "support_augmentation_report.json",
260
+ "report_summary": {
261
+ "augmented_household_count": 42504,
262
+ "augmented_person_count": 104434,
263
+ "base_household_count": 41314,
264
+ "base_person_count": 101384,
265
+ "clone_household_count": 1190,
266
+ "skipped_target_count": 0,
267
+ "successful_target_count": 1190
268
+ },
269
+ "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
270
+ "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
271
+ "target_year": 2100,
272
+ "target_year_strategy": "fixed",
273
+ "top_n_targets": 60
274
+ },
275
+ "target_source": {
276
+ "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
277
+ "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
278
+ "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
279
+ "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
280
+ "not_law": false,
281
+ "notes": [
282
+ "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
283
+ ],
284
+ "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
285
+ "source_urls": [
286
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
287
+ "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
288
+ ],
289
+ "type": "trustees_current_law"
290
+ },
291
+ "tax_assumption": {
292
+ "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
293
+ "end_year": 2100,
294
+ "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
295
+ "not_default_current_law": true,
296
+ "parameter_groups": [
297
+ "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
298
+ ],
299
+ "projection_base_year": 2026,
300
+ "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
301
+ "start_year": 2035,
302
+ "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
303
+ "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
304
+ },
305
+ "year": 2075
306
+ }