README.md

---
license: apache-2.0
library_name: tinycast
pipeline_tag: time-series-forecasting
datasets:
  - Salesforce/GiftEvalPretrain
tags:
  - time-series
  - time-series-forecasting
  - foundation-model
  - attention-free
  - gift-eval
  - edge
  - streaming
  - quantization
model-index:
- name: TinyCast
  results:
  - task:
      type: time-series-forecasting
      name: Time Series Forecasting
    dataset:
      name: GIFT-Eval
      type: Salesforce/GiftEval
    metrics:
    - name: MASE
      type: mase
      value: 0.774
    - name: CRPS
      type: crps
      value: 0.545
    source:
      name: GIFT-Eval leaderboard
      url: https://huggingface.co/spaces/Salesforce/GIFT-Eval
---

# TinyCast

**Probabilistic zero-shot forecasting at 146,505 parameters: the smallest GIFT-Eval entry that
publishes per-configuration results and declares no leakage.**

TinyCast forecasts a series it has never seen, with no fitting and no fine-tuning, and returns nine
quantiles rather than a single number. It is attention-free, and it computes each context's
periodicity instead of learning it, so no capacity is spent rediscovering seasonality.

**Below 1.4 M parameters it is the only zero-shot model on the GIFT-Eval board that emits a
predictive distribution**, and it fits on a microcontroller.

- **Try it:** https://huggingface.co/spaces/raws-labs/tinycast-forecaster
- **Paper:** https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15767
- **Code, training and replication:** https://github.com/raws-labs/tinycast
- **Parameters:** 146,505 (fp32 weights, about 0.6 MB)
- **GIFT-Eval, zero-shot:** 0.774 nGMASE, 0.545 nWQL, 0.554 nMSIS over 97 configurations
- **On a Cortex-M7:** 138.1 KiB INT8 weights, 730.7 KiB peak RAM, 4.08 s per call
  ([firmware profile](#on-device), 0.833 nGMASE)
- **License:** Apache-2.0

## GIFT-Eval results (zero-shot)

![GIFT-Eval size versus accuracy](assets/frontier.png)

Point accuracy (left) and probabilistic accuracy (right) against parameter count, log scale, over
the 97 GIFT-Eval configurations. Filled marker is the host profile, hollow is the firmware profile.
Dashed outlines mark models that emit a point forecast, whose nWQL column is a point error and is
not comparable.

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| nGMASE (point accuracy) | 0.774 |
| nWQL (probabilistic accuracy) | 0.545 |
| nMSIS (interval score) | 0.554 |

All three are geometric means, over the 97 benchmark configurations, of the ratio between the
model's metric and the seasonal-naive reference's; 1.000 is parity with seasonal naive. Every number
on this page comes from one profile: bf16 autocast at compute, flip-invariance symmetrization and
period-alignment downsampling, which the reproduction command below runs.

Against every zero-shot model on the board up to 10 M parameters with a public per-configuration
result and no declared leakage, recomputed from one pinned snapshot against the same reference:

| Model | Params | nGMASE | nWQL |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| **TinyCast** | 146 K | 0.774 | 0.545 |
| Reverso-Nano | 200 K | 0.760 | (0.661) |
| Reverso-Small | 550 K | 0.726 | (0.626) |
| TTM-R3 | 1.4 M | 0.724 | 0.520 |
| Reverso | 2.6 M | 0.711 | (0.610) |
| Toto-2.0-4m | 4.1 M | 0.757 | 0.524 |
| YingLong-6m | 7.3 M | 0.880 | 0.609 |
| FlowState-9.1M | 9.1 M | 0.726 | 0.502 |
| Kairos-10m | 9.9 M | 0.753 | 0.554 |

Parenthesized nWQL means the model emits a point forecast rather than a predictive distribution, so
the figure is a point error and is not comparable with the rest. The two Reverso models are the only
others here below 1.4 M parameters, and both are in that category.

**Other benchmarks.** On Chronos-ZS (27 tasks) TinyCast reaches relative MASE 0.880 and relative WQL
0.722; on fev-bench (100 tasks) relative MASE 0.819, relative WQL 0.658 and a skill score of 0.304.
On both, every neural model ahead of it carries at least 28 times its parameters. Each benchmark
normalizes over its own dataset set, so these aggregates are not comparable with the GIFT-Eval
figures above. Disjointness is not established on fev-bench: twelve of its hundred tasks name corpus
subsets we train on.

## Model description

| Component | Design |
|---|---|
| Backbone | 10 dilated causal Conv1d blocks, kernel 3, dilations doubling from 1 to 512 (receptive field 2047 over a context of 2048) |
| Efficiency | depthwise-separable convolutions, one SwiGLU feed-forward ALBERT-tied across all ten blocks |
| Structural prior | Fisher's significance test for harmonic analysis on the normalized periodogram, alpha 0.05, up to four periods, zero parameters, then a 16-bin phase fold |
| Decoder | pooled summary, phase-gather seasonal profile and a causal future-conv correction; nine decile quantiles |
| Normalization | per-context min-max over the observed history, inverted on the output |
| Context / horizon | context 2048; forecasts in blocks of 48 steps, rolled out autoregressively (evaluated to 720) |
| Input | one univariate series; NaN gaps are linearly interpolated, a longer history keeps its most recent 2,048 steps and a shorter one is padded with its first value |
| Working memory | bounded per-layer ring buffers that do not grow as the model runs; causal padding, so a per-step streaming variant is exact rather than approximate |

Every learned operation is a convolution, a matrix multiplication or a normalization, so the model
exports to a static INT8 graph and runs a forecast end to end on an embedded device.

### On device

Deployed on an STM32H753 (Arm Cortex-M7) development board as a static W8A8 graph with quantization
scales calibrated once and frozen. Single core, no neural accelerator, no off-chip memory.

| Measurement | Value |
|---|---|
| INT8 matrix and convolution coefficients | 138.1 KiB |
| Complete firmware image, including an 8 KiB context | 365.5 KiB |
| Peak RAM (statics, heap, stack high-water) | 730.7 KiB |
| One core call at a 2048-step context | 4.08 s |

The board runs the **firmware configuration**, which scores **0.833 nGMASE and 0.581 nWQL**, not the
0.774 / 0.545 headlined above: it executes INT8 and drops both inference-time strategies.
Quantization alone, with the strategies kept, costs 2.1% of aggregate point accuracy over all 97
configurations.

**Training data.** Pretrained once on GIFT-Eval-Pretrain, Chronos KernelSynth and four synthetic
shards, for 36,621 steps in about 7.8 h on eight RTX 3090s, roughly 62 accelerator-hours. Before
caching, the corpus is filtered on two exclusion lists: of its 71 top-level directories two are
removed, leaving 69. GIFT-Eval-Pretrain is published already disjoint from the GIFT-Eval test set,
so the overlap list removes nothing here and exists for the secondary benchmark. No per-dataset
fine-tuning; every result above is zero-shot.

## Files

- `model.safetensors`: 146,505 fp32 parameters, about 0.6 MB. The weight-tied feed-forward is stored
  once, so counting parameters by summing a loaded `state_dict()` overcounts; instantiate from the
  config instead.
- `config.json`: the `TinyCastConfig` the loader rebuilds the architecture from.

## Usage

There is no PyPI package. Install from GitHub:

```bash
pip install git+https://github.com/raws-labs/tinycast.git
```

Forecast a synthetic hourly series, no data download needed:

```python
import numpy as np, pandas as pd
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
from tinycast import TinyCastPredictor

weights = hf_hub_download("raws-labs/tinycast", "model.safetensors")
hf_hub_download("raws-labs/tinycast", "config.json")   # sibling, picked up automatically

t = np.arange(1000)                                     # daily cycle plus noise; NaN = missing
y = 10 + 3 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / 24) + np.random.default_rng(42).normal(0, 0.5, t.size)

predictor = TinyCastPredictor(prediction_length=96, checkpoint_path=weights,
                              freq="H", domain="Energy", device="cpu",
                              force_flip_invariance=True)
forecast = predictor.predict([{"target": y, "start": pd.Period("2026-01-01", freq="h")}])[0]

forecast.forecast_array.shape                           # (9, 96): deciles x horizon
median, lower, upper = forecast.quantile(0.5), forecast.quantile(0.1), forecast.quantile(0.9)
```

Load the weights:

```python
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
from tinycast import load_model

weights = hf_hub_download("raws-labs/tinycast", "model.safetensors")
hf_hub_download("raws-labs/tinycast", "config.json")   # sibling, picked up automatically

model, config = load_model(weights)   # TinyCastForPrediction, 146,505 params
```

Reproduce the table above. The GIFT-Eval data loader is a separate install, needed only by the
benchmark driver; note that its distribution name and its import name differ:

```bash
pip install "salesforce-gift-eval @ git+https://github.com/SalesforceAIResearch/gift-eval.git"

# the loader does not fetch the data; download it once first
hf download Salesforce/GiftEval --repo-type dataset --local-dir /path/to/gift-eval

export GIFT_EVAL=/path/to/gift-eval
python -m tinycast.eval --ckpt model.safetensors --flip \
    --device cuda --output all_results.csv
```

The repository README documents the thread caps that keep this from running many times slower, and
everything else that moves the numbers. It also covers the training recipe, checkpoint averaging and
export, and the synthetic-corpus builder, all of which ship in the same package.

## Intended use and limitations

TinyCast is built for forecasting a univariate signal on hardware that was not chosen for machine
learning, where a per-signal model would have to be fitted and maintained for every deployment.

- It is univariate. It uses no covariates and no cross-series structure, so a task that supplies
  either will be forecast without them.
- The model emits no signal when its input leaves the regime its pretraining covers, so degradation
  there is silent.
- The period comes from a rounded FFT bin, so its resolution falls as the ratio of window to period
  falls: about seven percent for a weekly cycle in hourly data.
- Min-max normalization is per context window and therefore sensitive to a single extreme value.
- Fresh deployments degrade toward the seasonal-naive baseline rather than failing: parity at 64
  observed samples, and two thirds of the way back to full-context accuracy by 512.

## License

Apache-2.0. Third-party attributions are in the code repository's `NOTICE`.

## Citation

```bibtex
@misc{tinycast2026,
  title         = {TinyCast: Probabilistic Zero-Shot Forecasting with Computed Periodicity},
  author        = {Armin Steinhauser},
  year          = {2026},
  eprint        = {2608.15767},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  primaryClass  = {cs.LG}
}
```