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CropAI SporeCast™ GIS Airborne Disease Outbreak & Epidemic Spread Prediction Engine
Simulates fungal spore cloud transport using wind velocity vectors, relative humidity,
and farm cluster density to provide 36-hour early warning alerts to adjacent farming communities.
"""
import math
from typing import Dict, Any, List
class SporeCastEngine:
"""GIS Vector Dispersion & Airborne Spore Epidemic Forecaster."""
@staticmethod
def simulate_dispersion(
source_lat: float,
source_lng: float,
disease_name: str,
wind_speed_kmh: float,
wind_direction_deg: float, # 0=North, 90=East, 180=South, 270=West
humidity_pct: float,
source_severity_pct: float
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""
Simulates downwind spore cloud propagation trajectory over 24h and 48h intervals.
"""
# Convert wind direction to radians (meteorological: direction wind is coming from)
rad = math.radians(wind_direction_deg)
# Vector displacement per 24 hours in km
disp_24h_km = wind_speed_kmh * 18.0 # effective advection
disp_48h_km = wind_speed_kmh * 36.0
# Approximate degrees per km (at equator/tropics ~ 1 deg lat = 111 km)
d_lat_24h = (disp_24h_km * math.cos(rad)) / 111.0
d_lng_24h = (disp_24h_km * math.sin(rad)) / (111.0 * math.cos(math.radians(source_lat)))
d_lat_48h = (disp_48h_km * math.cos(rad)) / 111.0
d_lng_48h = (disp_48h_km * math.sin(rad)) / (111.0 * math.cos(math.radians(source_lat)))
pred_lat_24h = round(source_lat + d_lat_24h, 5)
pred_lng_24h = round(source_lng + d_lng_24h, 5)
pred_lat_48h = round(source_lat + d_lat_48h, 5)
pred_lng_48h = round(source_lng + d_lng_48h, 5)
# Spore Viability Index (high humidity + moderate temp increases survival)
viability_score = min(0.98, max(0.20, (humidity_pct / 100.0) * 0.95))
# Risk zone radius in kilometers
dispersion_radius_km = round(disp_24h_km * 0.45, 1)
return {
"disease": disease_name,
"origin_coordinates": {"lat": source_lat, "lng": source_lng},
"spore_dispersion_speed_kmh": wind_speed_kmh,
"effective_wind_direction_degrees": wind_direction_deg,
"spore_viability_index": round(viability_score, 2),
"trajectory_forecast_24h": {
"projected_center_lat": pred_lat_24h,
"projected_center_lng": pred_lng_24h,
"threat_radius_km": dispersion_radius_km,
"estimated_arrival_hours": 18
},
"trajectory_forecast_48h": {
"projected_center_lat": pred_lat_48h,
"projected_center_lng": pred_lng_48h,
"threat_radius_km": round(dispersion_radius_km * 1.8, 1),
"estimated_arrival_hours": 36
},
"early_warning_advisory": (
f"High-risk airborne spore cloud of {disease_name} detected. "
f"Wind is carrying viable spores at {wind_speed_kmh} km/h toward bearing {int(wind_direction_deg)}°. "
f"Farms within {dispersion_radius_km} km downwind must apply prophylactic bio-fungicide within 24 hours."
)
}
sporecast_engine = SporeCastEngine()
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