Update HM with accumulating method

data/history-matching-uq_results/{history-matching_l63_ensemble_results_2026-07-20_minimal.nc → history-matching_l63_ensemble_results_2026-09-15_minimal.nc}

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
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-oid sha256:8a656f0ff90226742e5be62946e4bef99a8762884f8113d3a24c458e9996b982
+oid sha256:4c0dfbb62d909fc8fc8afa2200592c6938e58302fbd0c030aa367a2ae449ba13
 size 672930

data/history-matching-uq_results/{history-matching_l96_flux-force_2026-07-21_minimal.nc → history-matching_l96_flux-force_2026-09-15_minimal.nc}

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
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-oid sha256:8b76f4016ea38382595960750081bb9d1797b3df69f212abea7fd322d9582308
+oid sha256:64c97226ac7e341a8c12e4e78ce073e345390ebccbe099abb8627061df133218
 size 809730

data/history-matching-uq_results/history-matching_l96_vec-force_2026-07-21_minimal.nc

@@ -1,3 +0,0 @@
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-oid sha256:9040eb783a225266d63cdfafd31b7a8443ef41c949ab9ecaf059fe5e7cabf7f7
-size 809730

src/data_store.py

@@ -112,7 +112,7 @@ UQ_BUDGET_FILES: dict[str, list[tuple[str, str]]] = {
         ("iekf", "gnki-uq_results/leaderboard_gnki_l63_2026-07-07_minimal.nc"),
         ("ces-eki-const", "ces-eki-const_results/ces-eki-const_l63_ensemble_results_2026-07-09_minimal.nc"),
         ("ces-iekf-const", "ces-iekf-const_results/ces-iekf-const_l63_ensemble_results_2026-07-17_minimal.nc"),
-        ("hm", "history-matching-uq_results/history-matching_l63_ensemble_results_2026-07-20_minimal.nc"),
+        ("hm", "history-matching-uq_results/history-matching_l63_ensemble_results_2026-09-15_minimal.nc"),
         ("gboed", "gboed-uq_results/boed_l63_ensemble_results_2026-07-30_minimal.nc"),
         ("abc", "abc/leaderboard_abc_l63_2026-09-10_minimal.nc"),
     ],
@@ -121,7 +121,7 @@ UQ_BUDGET_FILES: dict[str, list[tuple[str, str]]] = {
         ("iekf", "gnki-uq_results/leaderboard_gnki_l96_const-force_2026-07-07_minimal.nc"),
         ("ces-eki-const", "ces-eki-const_results/ces-eki-const_l96_ensemble_results_2026-07-09_minimal.nc"),
         ("ces-iekf-const", "ces-iekf-const_results/ces-iekf-const_l96_ensemble_results_2026-07-17_minimal.nc"),
-        ("hm", "history-matching-uq_results/history-matching_l96_const-force_2026-07-20_minimal.nc"),
+        ("hm", "history-matching-uq_results/history-matching_l96_const-force_2026-09-15_minimal.nc"),
         ("gboed", "gboed-uq_results/boed_l96_const-force_2026-07-30_minimal.nc"),
         ("abc", "abc/leaderboard_abc_l96_const-force_2026-09-10_minimal.nc"),
     ],
@@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ UQ_BUDGET_FILES: dict[str, list[tuple[str, str]]] = {
         ("iekf", "gnki-uq_results/leaderboard_gnki_l96_flux-force_2026-07-07_minimal.nc"),
         ("ces-eki-const", "ces-eki-const_results/ces-eki-const_l96_nn_forcing_ensemble_results_2026-07-09_minimal.nc"),
         ("ces-iekf-const", "ces-iekf-const_results/ces-iekf-const_l96_nn_forcing_ensemble_results_2026-07-17_minimal.nc"),
-        ("hm", "history-matching-uq_results/history-matching_l96_flux-force_2026-07-21_minimal.nc"),
+        ("hm", "history-matching-uq_results/history-matching_l96_flux-force_2026-09-15_minimal.nc"),
         ("abc", "abc/leaderboard_abc_l96_flux-force_2026-09-10_minimal.nc"),
     ],
     "L96_SPATIAL_FORCING": [
@@ -138,7 +138,7 @@ UQ_BUDGET_FILES: dict[str, list[tuple[str, str]]] = {
         ("iekf", "gnki-uq_results/leaderboard_gnki_l96_vec-force_2026-07-07_minimal.nc"),
         ("ces-eki-const", "ces-eki-const_results/ces-eki-const_l96_spatial_forcing_ensemble_results_2026-07-09_minimal.nc"),
         ("ces-iekf-const", "ces-iekf-const_results/ces-iekf-const_l96_spatial_forcing_ensemble_results_2026-07-17_minimal.nc"),
-        ("hm", "history-matching-uq_results/history-matching_l96_vec-force_2026-07-22_minimal.nc"),
+        ("hm", "history-matching-uq_results/history-matching_l96_vec-force_2026-09-15_minimal.nc"),
         ("gboed", "gboed-uq_results/boed_l96_vec-force_2026-08-07_minimal.nc"),
         ("abc", "abc/leaderboard_abc_l96_vec-force_2026-09-10_minimal.nc"),
     ],

src/pages/MethodDetails.py

@@ -166,7 +166,10 @@ method_meta = {
         "source": "`uq_experiments/HistoryMatching` — custom (non-EKP) wave/rejection scheme.",
         "math": (
             "History Matching runs a series of waves. At wave k, an independent GP emulator is fit per "
-            "whitened output mode on every parameter evaluated so far; a candidate survives the wave iff "
+            "whitened output mode on an accumulated training set: the current ensemble plus all training "
+            "points from historical waves that lie within the current NROY space (points that have been "
+            "ruled out are dropped, so the emulator concentrates its accuracy on the shrinking NROY region); "
+            "a candidate survives the wave iff "
             "its implausibility (whitened, GP-predicted misfit) is below a chi-squared threshold, and the "
             "surviving (\"Not Ruled Out Yet\", NROY) region is intersected across all waves run so far."
         ),