| --- |
| title: A grid lab in your browser |
| emoji: 🌡️ |
| colorFrom: blue |
| colorTo: indigo |
| sdk: static |
| app_file: index.html |
| pinned: false |
| license: apache-2.0 |
| short_description: Texas grid model, heat waves and hurricanes, in-browser |
| custom_headers: |
| cross-origin-embedder-policy: require-corp |
| cross-origin-opener-policy: same-origin |
| cross-origin-resource-policy: cross-origin |
| --- |
| |
| # A grid lab in your browser |
|
|
| AC optimal power flow for a 2,000-bus Texas grid model (Texas A&M's Texas2k, CC BY 4.0; synthetic, not ERCOT's network) |
| on real heat-wave days and hurricane damage draws. GENCO, a neural network, proposes; physics certifies. |
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| Nothing runs on a server: this Space serves files and the page computes. GENCO runs as ONNX (onnxruntime-web); the AC |
| power flow, the check and the exact solver run as Python compiled to WebAssembly (Pyodide), in a Web Worker. No licensed |
| solver. The `custom_headers` above make the page cross-origin isolated, so WebAssembly threads work. |
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|
| The page makes four claims, each with its evidence in its "How it works" sheet: |
| - **Real data:** a real day's ERA5 temperature anomaly, ERCOT load at the peak hour (EIA-930), wind and sun (ERA5) and |
| Henry Hub gas price; 52 days of four Texas heat waves. Hurricanes: Harvey (2017) and Beryl (2024) on NOAA's HURDAT2 |
| tracks, 600 stored damage draws each. The page opens on June 2023's ERCOT peak. |
| - **In your browser:** your what-ifs are not sent anywhere (only the basemap tiles come from CARTO). |
| - **Certified:** a point is certified when a full AC power flow of its dispatch meets every limit (ratings within 1%, |
| voltages within 0.005 p.u., reactive and slack mismatches within 1 Mvar and 1 MW; base case only). None of the 181 |
| certified answers was wrong against Ipopt, on what-ifs that included 30 where Ipopt found no dispatch. "Not |
| certified" and "no dispatch found" are flags, not proofs. |
| - **Quantified:** 90% split-conformal bands on line loading (90.5% coverage over all lines of unseen heat-dome |
| what-ifs, 87-90% on the lines loaded above 90%; on real days, bands calibrated on 129 other hot days covered 84-87% |
| and are marked indicative), and a hurricane Monte Carlo reports the share of draws without a dispatch with its 90% |
| interval. |
|
|
| ## What you can do |
| - **One what-if.** The weather is a real heat-wave day, a hurricane (a storm, a track shift, a wind speed and new |
| random damage) or up to three synthetic heat domes; sliders set demand, wind, sun, fuel prices and outages. The rail runs |
| Predict (GENCO), Repair (AC power flow), Certify (a few linear steps, then a full AC check) and, only when the check |
| cannot certify, an Exact step: the exact AC-OPF from GENCO's prediction, with a 30 s limit. |
| - **Many what-ifs.** Four findings from exact solves done offline, each with a button that reruns it live: a real heat |
| wave, a +8 °C dome scan, a hurricane's Monte Carlo. A study runs on a second engine in the browser; click a cell to |
| open that what-if above. |
|
|
| ## Model and results |
| GENCO small, fine-tuned from its GOC 2000 checkpoint on Texas heat-wave and hurricane what-ifs (12 other storms; Harvey |
| and Beryl never seen in training). With the fast correction: heat, 97.0% AC-feasible, 0.27% above the optimum, on the |
| 1,484 of 1,500 unseen heat-dome what-ifs that have an exact optimum (synthetic domes, mostly at 0.6-0.75 of peak load); |
| storms, 92.1% and 0.73%, on the 1,149 of 1,200 Harvey and Beryl what-ifs that have one. The model and the correction |
| settings were chosen after seeing these test sets; the pre-registered hurricane test did not pass. |
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| Development notes, the file map, the data rebuild and the tests are in `DEV.md` (not part of the Space). |
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|
