README.md

metadata

title: Slipstream
emoji: 📈
colorFrom: blue
colorTo: green
sdk: docker
app_port: 7860
pinned: false
short_description: Smart-money, quality, trend-adaptive paper fund

Slipstream

A quality, trend-adaptive equity paper fund that drafts the smart money.

Strategy (rule v2, Oct 2026): hold the large-caps that concentrated 13F managers are collectively buying — every filer with 10–150 positions, $250M–$100B and ≥40% in its top 10 (rule-based, ~900–1,500 a quarter); signal = 2·new + add − 2·exit conviction positions — restricted to the top-1,000 by market cap and to companies whose ROA is in the top 30% of their sector; top-20 dollar-weighted (1–10% per name, ≤5 per sector) with a dynamic sector cap (each sector 30% ± its 12-1m relative strength, 15–45%) and a regime overlay that rotates into large-cap momentum when SPY is in a confirmed downtrend. An AI overlay excludes only names hit by a critical adverse event. Rebalanced monthly.

Backtest 2014-03 → 2026-10 (survivorship-free, data through d − 1, 20 bp/side, Sharpe net of T-bills): CAGR 19.9% vs SPY 13.9%, Sharpe 0.85 vs 0.73, max drawdown -37.5% vs -33.7%, alpha +3.9% (t 1.8), β 1.17. Chosen on 2016–2021 from ~210 configurations; it trailed SPY over the never-used 2014-03 → 2016-02 window. Research and pre-registrations: Quant Model/data/research/slipstream/.

The page shows the live Alpaca paper portfolio, performance vs SPY, and the current target book. The informational Top AI Picks of the Month panels moved to the Signalflow Space (Nov 2026); /picks redirects there.

Setup (Space secrets)

Add these under Settings → Variables and secrets:

Secret	Purpose
ALPACA_API_KEY, ALPACA_SECRET_KEY	your Alpaca paper account (required)
ALPACA_PAPER_ENDPOINT	optional, defaults to https://paper-api.alpaca.markets
REBALANCE_TOKEN	enables the rebalance executor (send as X-Rebalance-Token)
GEMINI_API_KEY	optional — the AI event-risk overlay. Model via GEMINI_MODEL, default gemini-flash-lite-latest. Without it the overlay is off and the book is purely rule-based
SLIPSTREAM_CASH_BUFFER	optional, default 0.01 — fraction of equity the executor keeps in cash

The fund only ever trades the paper endpoint. Rebalance is dry-run by default; a real submit needs dry=0 and the matching REBALANCE_TOKEN.

Rebalance

POST /api/rebalance?dry=1 returns the trade plan (no orders). Monthly, trigger a real rebalance with POST /api/rebalance?dry=0 and header X-Rebalance-Token: <token>. A Hugging Face scheduled Job (rebalance, weekdays 15:00 UTC, ops/hf_ops.py in the Refinery Space) does this every weekday, and the Space no-ops until the first market-open day of the month.

The executor sizes the book off (1 − CASH_BUFFER) × equity, never 100%: a fully-invested target plus the min-trade deadband (small overweights are never sold) had left the account on a standing margin balance. Sells are placed first and waited for before buys go in.

Ops

• Supervisor — GET /api/supervisor is a flag-only monitor (tracking vs SPY, guardrails, freshness). The HF scheduled Job supervisor runs it daily (13:00 UTC). On ALERT it opens a discussion on this Space, which HF notifies you about. It doubles as the keep-alive: free Spaces sleep after 48 h idle, and the weekday-only rebalance ping left it asleep every weekend. All schedules (refresh, rebalance, supervisor, shadow book) are HF Jobs. See the Refinery README.
• Restarts are safe. All fund state lives in Alpaca. The data/ risk-screen cache is ephemeral inside the container — a restart just recomputes it (one LLM call).
• Public by design. The dashboard, holdings and dry-run plan are world-readable (it's a paper account). If you flip the Space to private under Settings, give the Jobs' requests an Authorization: Bearer header (ops/hf_ops.py currently calls the public URL).

Data refresh

The smart-money signal bundle in data/ is regenerated by engine/export_bundle.py (run where the licensed Sharadar cache lives) and committed. Refresh it weekly: 13F is quarterly and ~45-day lagged, but prices.parquet feeds the sector-strength and momentum sleeves, and the supervisor WATCHes at 10 days / ALERTs at 14. The regime test (SPY vs 200-day MA) additionally pulls SPY live from Alpaca, so the fund's biggest switch never waits on the bundle.