model_cards/A3.md

Model Card · A3 — Will this field capture be rejected at officer review?

Generated 2026-09-02 from reports/ — do not edit by hand.

What this model answers

Will this field capture be rejected at officer review?

Caveats

• NOT YET ANSWERABLE (F11). The review process changed regime mid-window: February 2024 rejection jumped to 0.790 from ~0.28 while reviewed volume collapsed sixfold.
• Every family is miscalibrated as a result - Brier scores are worse than the prior baseline. This is a property of the label, not the models.

Results

Ranked by PR-AUC ↑ (higher is better). Every family that ran is listed, including those that lost — the comparison is the deliverable.

Model	Family	PR-AUC ↑	ROC-AUC ↑	Brier ↓	Best F1 ↑	Fit	Beats baseline
xgboost	gbdt	0.3088	0.5750	0.7122	0.3962	2s	yes
stacked	ensemble	0.3084	0.5796	0.4401	0.4023	48s	yes
catboost	gbdt	0.2987	0.5630	0.6817	0.4033	4s	yes
hist_gbm	gbdt	0.2955	0.5575	0.7166	0.3960	4s	yes
random_forest	trees	0.2919	0.5683	0.5619	0.4040	2s	yes
logistic	linear	0.2893	0.5642	0.7211	0.4068	0s	yes
lightgbm	gbdt	0.2838	0.5522	0.7250	0.3954	2s	yes
extra_trees	trees	0.2825	0.5544	0.4573	0.4027	1s	yes
prior	baseline	0.2459	0.5000	0.1881	0.3947	0s	baseline

Best learned family: xgboost at 0.3088, +25.6% against the strongest baseline (prior at 0.2459).

Reproduction

make data && make ingest && make features
make train

Seed 42. Splits are chronological, never random.