model_cards/B1.md

Model Card · B1 — How long until this event is cleared?

Generated 2026-09-02 from reports/ — do not edit by hand.

What this model answers

How long until this event is cleared?

Caveats

• Predicts ADMINISTRATIVE closure (ticket closed), not physical road-clear time.
• n=2,720 of 8,173 events carry a usable duration (F4). Metrics are means over five chronological folds with a standard deviation, because a single split at this size is one draw from a small sample.

Results

Ranked by Deviance ↓ (lower is better). Every family that ran is listed, including those that lost — the comparison is the deliverable. Figures are means over 5 chronological folds, ± one standard deviation.

Model	Family	Deviance ↓	MAE min ↓	RMSE ↓	R² ↑	Fit	Beats baseline
xgboost	gbdt	0.4990 ± 0.128	538.6806	1.4936	0.2428	1s	yes
random_forest	trees	0.5034 ± 0.134	546.6247	1.5039	0.2350	0s	yes
extra_trees	trees	0.5084 ± 0.122	551.1427	1.5178	0.2170	0s	yes
lightgbm	gbdt	0.5119 ± 0.133	549.3335	1.5196	0.2177	1s	yes
hist_gbm	gbdt	0.5322 ± 0.120	549.0341	1.5411	0.1887	4s	yes
hist_gbm_poisson	gbdt	0.5363 ± 0.152	552.7476	1.5548	0.1832	1s	yes
ridge	linear	0.5401 ± 0.151	554.2421	1.5587	0.1781	0s	yes
poisson_glm	linear	0.5445 ± 0.160	555.4239	1.5670	0.1703	0s	yes
catboost	gbdt	0.5468 ± 0.112	538.7609	1.5571	0.1721	2s	yes
mean	baseline	0.6904 ± 0.213	554.9495	1.7510	-0.0338	0s	baseline
torch_mlp	deep	4.4045 ± 3.908	14098.0595	10.6682	-54.3918	1s	no

Best learned family: xgboost at 0.4990, +27.7% against the strongest baseline (mean at 0.6904).

Scored on their own metric, not on poisson_deviance

These ran and are reported; the target's primary metric simply does not apply to them.

Model	Family	Metric	Value
lightgbm_q50	quantile	Pinball ↓	0.5658 ± 0.090
lightgbm_q90	quantile	Pinball ↓	0.2343 ± 0.040

Reproduction

make data && make ingest && make features
make train-b

Seed 42. Splits are chronological, never random.