| # Model Card · B1 — How long until this event is cleared? |
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| *Generated 2026-09-02 from `reports/` — do not edit by hand.* |
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| ## What this model answers |
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| How long until this event is cleared? |
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| ## Caveats |
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| - Predicts ADMINISTRATIVE closure (ticket closed), not physical road-clear time. |
| - n=2,720 of 8,173 events carry a usable duration (F4). Metrics are means over five chronological folds with a standard deviation, because a single split at this size is one draw from a small sample. |
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| ## Results |
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| Ranked by **Deviance ↓** (lower is better). Every family that ran is listed, including those that lost — the comparison is the deliverable. Figures are means over 5 chronological folds, ± one standard deviation. |
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| | Model | Family | Deviance ↓ | MAE min ↓ | RMSE ↓ | R² ↑ | Fit | Beats baseline | |
| |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| |
| | `xgboost` | gbdt | 0.4990 ± 0.128 | 538.6806 | 1.4936 | 0.2428 | 1s | yes | |
| | `random_forest` | trees | 0.5034 ± 0.134 | 546.6247 | 1.5039 | 0.2350 | 0s | yes | |
| | `extra_trees` | trees | 0.5084 ± 0.122 | 551.1427 | 1.5178 | 0.2170 | 0s | yes | |
| | `lightgbm` | gbdt | 0.5119 ± 0.133 | 549.3335 | 1.5196 | 0.2177 | 1s | yes | |
| | `hist_gbm` | gbdt | 0.5322 ± 0.120 | 549.0341 | 1.5411 | 0.1887 | 4s | yes | |
| | `hist_gbm_poisson` | gbdt | 0.5363 ± 0.152 | 552.7476 | 1.5548 | 0.1832 | 1s | yes | |
| | `ridge` | linear | 0.5401 ± 0.151 | 554.2421 | 1.5587 | 0.1781 | 0s | yes | |
| | `poisson_glm` | linear | 0.5445 ± 0.160 | 555.4239 | 1.5670 | 0.1703 | 0s | yes | |
| | `catboost` | gbdt | 0.5468 ± 0.112 | 538.7609 | 1.5571 | 0.1721 | 2s | yes | |
| | `mean` | baseline | 0.6904 ± 0.213 | 554.9495 | 1.7510 | -0.0338 | 0s | *baseline* | |
| | `torch_mlp` | deep | 4.4045 ± 3.908 | 14098.0595 | 10.6682 | -54.3918 | 1s | **no** | |
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| **Best learned family: `xgboost`** at 0.4990, +27.7% against the strongest baseline (`mean` at 0.6904). |
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| ### Scored on their own metric, not on poisson_deviance |
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| These ran and are reported; the target's primary metric simply does not apply to them. |
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| | Model | Family | Metric | Value | |
| |---|---|---|---:| |
| | `lightgbm_q50` | quantile | Pinball ↓ | 0.5658 ± 0.090 | |
| | `lightgbm_q90` | quantile | Pinball ↓ | 0.2343 ± 0.040 | |
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| ## Reproduction |
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| ```bash |
| make data && make ingest && make features |
| make train-b |
| ``` |
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| Seed `42`. Splits are chronological, never random. |
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