Add StakeBench v1.1.2: model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5

.gitattributes

@@ -68,3 +68,4 @@ model_outputs/Finance-chat-7B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -tex
 model_outputs/Gemma2-9B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 model_outputs/Llama3.2-3B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 model_outputs/Mistral-7B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
+model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/llm_audit.jsonl

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
+oid sha256:b68ff99f8d0adf54c92325d207a2e0f5f74c1884588149b46cec88ac96d58239
+size 49453333

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_0shot.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done
+Would Liberian or J",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that?
+Hey 
+",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just 
+ holding YES and 
+ holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say.  I want to see a resolution on the doc",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution.
+(I currently don’t hav",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine.  Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them.  One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning.  The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok 
+ 
+I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks 
+, for the clarification.
+To add to 
+'s point above, 
+Binance.US
+ does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here.  As I understand the situation, Wel",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you.
+This is a cost of doing business for these bank",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have:
+$3k to various charities
+A truck full of supplies to a",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case.  I think the text is clear enough about that.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago:
+Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and  I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market.
+Fundamentally, I think the question people ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey 
+,
+I guess we're here. It's the end of the line.  This is my last pitch. 😭 
+ 
+I’ve said a few times that I didn’",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast.  One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that.
+Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game.
+The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy.  Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
+(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. 
+  since you’r",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with 
+ if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_1shot.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done
+Would Liberian or J",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that?
+Hey 
+",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just 
+ holding YES and 
+ holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say.  I want to see a resolution on the doc",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution.
+(I currently don’t hav",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine.  Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them.  One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning.  The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok 
+ 
+I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks 
+, for the clarification.
+To add to 
+'s point above, 
+Binance.US
+ does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here.  As I understand the situation, Wel",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you.
+This is a cost of doing business for these bank",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have:
+$3k to various charities
+A truck full of supplies to a",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case.  I think the text is clear enough about that.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago:
+Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and  I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market.
+Fundamentally, I think the question people ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey 
+,
+I guess we're here. It's the end of the line.  This is my last pitch. 😭 
+ 
+I’ve said a few times that I didn’",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast.  One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that.
+Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game.
+The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy.  Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
+(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. 
+  since you’r",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with 
+ if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,197 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T01:45:53.433000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh sorry, I missed the first line of the market. I thought this was for an AI to persuade you, not a human.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:17:28.329000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"can't you also just click the 3 dots and then click ""watch""?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:12:51.366000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"You built this market on a simple procedural premise: start at NO, then flip to YES if and only if a persuasive argument",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T00:48:36.256000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,why are you so confident about your probability?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just 
+ holding YES and 
+ holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2.3674,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning.  The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine.  Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T13:11:35.160000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I think you'll get the most information and the least regret from choosing no. If you think about what you'll feel looki,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T17:18:38.623000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I have sold my shares for 1 profit and put the 1 profit on yes
+I'm literly an evil mastrminde",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",YES,NO,False,True,5922.8747,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",YES,NO,False,True,80.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,NO,YES,False,True,344.7005,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T22:01:27.984000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I've stayed many times at Motel 6 and they are always an excellent value with no problems. I would definitely take my sp,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:09:39.912000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Tipping because the new market description made me laugh out loud.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T22:07:42.722000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Me, you, 8x private, short-fused, pre-agreed upon questions on Metaculus (4x authored by you; 4x by me; 2x binary; 2x nu",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:05:11.467000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,my math abilities peaked in high school on the AIME test and then maybe again in grad school with two semesters of quant,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",YES,NO,False,True,109.6766,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1700.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",YES,NO,False,True,1884.3998,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,NO,NO,True,True,344.7005,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you.
+This is a cost of doing business for these bank",NO,NO,True,True,2134.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:37:29.245000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"check on polymarket, if using crypto doesn't bore you 😀",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T00:37:21.585000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I've heard that this problem has a beautiful solution, akin to the marvelous tune of a broadway musical song. Someone pl",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:46:00.295000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I'll just note for my own part, that I am not really playing the market, but just the puzzle, and will reveal as soon as",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T08:37:08.634000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,in what time zone is this Sunday?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here.  As I understand the situation, Wel",NO,NO,True,True,19.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:54:21.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I gotta be real, I can't even argue this anymore after today. You can't beat that LMAO",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that?
+Hey 
+",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T21:29:09.419000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At the very least the legitimate words have no vowel harmony pattern.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,YES,YES,True,True,50.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T02:12:51.744000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Thanks, that was what I missed! (I should have read the market description more carefully). Buying YES now.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:47:49.100000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,weren’t you going to hire an actual lawyer? What happened to that plan?,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,51.0539,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution.
+(I currently don’t hav",YES,YES,True,True,2.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T02:26:58.150000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Did you re-file?  The 30 day window closed.  Closing won't help me, I already got out of this market.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-14T19:37:33.571000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I probably shouldn’t answer this, but I wouldn’t worry either way about me as the creator being motivated to change the ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",YES,NO,False,True,767.0988,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:38.679000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Remember it doesn't have to be 5 letters now!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done
+Would Liberian or J",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T20:17:34.216000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","That seems unfair to the YES bettors, and isn't in line with my past communication.
+To give a specific example, say we ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. 
+  since you’r",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14529.9924,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with 
+ if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",YES,NO,False,True,8641.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T18:35:25.536000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I bought them back. Lol. this is fun,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,139.9129,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that.
+Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",YES,YES,True,True,1000.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:35:30.646000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I never thought I’d honestly laugh at a Trump self-own. Thought it was outside of his emotional range.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",YES,NO,False,True,4485.4804,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T17:26:46.591000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","https://twitter.com/211lp/status/1592073286007271424
+I was screamed at on the phone for 5 minutes straight. I picked up",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,YES,YES,True,True,11711.0863,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-16T19:36:53.154000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Here’s what might be the worst-case scenario for you:
+What if no one tries to convince you of anything at Manifest? Wha",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:34:48.307000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"The market text states that a $1 settlement will not result in a 
+YES
+ resolution.",YES,NO,False,True,50.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey 
+,
+I guess we're here. It's the end of the line.  This is my last pitch. 😭 
+ 
+I’ve said a few times that I didn’",NO,YES,False,True,14449.5298,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T02:28:00.733000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If it was due to retaliation, yes. The primary reason they'd cover it up would be due to fears over EA's reputation, and",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them.  One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,YES,YES,True,True,142.7698,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-26T15:26:55.075000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I haven't received the paperwork back from the court yet.  During the lawsuit against Coinbase, it took about 10 days, a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,NO,NO,True,True,3367.601,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case.  I think the text is clear enough about that.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T15:59:53.196000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I don't understand what your argument is about jurisdiction here and why you are claiming this is the wrong venue.  Whic,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:23:16.420000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I do it at a random time each day, whereas I check the market many times per day",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-09T18:01:42.725000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey—sorry to circle back, but I’m still puzzled by one part of the rules and want to be sure I’m engaging in good faith.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,NO,YES,False,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:35:00.731000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","In a 1-on-1 relationship where the abuser can dedicate significant resources to making their partner feel isolated, yes.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market.
+Fundamentally, I think the question people ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks 
+, for the clarification.
+To add to 
+'s point above, 
+Binance.US
+ does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",NO,NO,True,True,160.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-30T00:19:08.320000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Yeah, I exited the market because of the ambiguity. Are we trying to find out if the narcissist is able to empathize wit",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
+(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",NO,NO,True,True,1784.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",YES,NO,False,True,125.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T00:14:10.398000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Does the last step still count as geometric reasoning?  Seems more like world-modeling.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:32:12.899000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Many people are able to be this abusive towards individuals and yet appear in public and group settings to be civilized.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy.  Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",NO,NO,True,True,2249.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",NO,NO,True,True,31231.9606,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,NO,NO,True,True,2154.6372,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-21T23:08:42.529000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Thanks for the comment, Daniel. Perfect timing—I wasn’t sure what I’d say today. First off, I just placed my first bet o",NO,YES,False,True,50.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,YES,NO,False,True,10.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-28T03:07:06.304000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh man Ben. Anything for you. . . I had chatgpt do it. 
+Forgive the extra dose of slop today, but it seems mostly right",NO,YES,False,True,15100.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T04:08:35.943000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Copying the relevant section for people who don't want to read the whole thing:
+I think the strongest case is something",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-26T02:49:14.804000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This market is a rat’s nest since an extreme narcissist seldom makes legit, earnest (nonmanipulative) apologies, in the ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T02:07:24.946000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This is not my guess, but there is a bridge term that could be used on these lines",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-26T22:03:29.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"If you need liquidity, I left a M$10k limit order at 40% for you. I would probably buy NO @ 70%, so I don't think even o",YES,NO,False,True,922.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret ""
+What is the minimum and maximum numb",YES,YES,True,True,10134.5965,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T00:25:12.708000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I know it's not ideal, but I couldn't think of a better way to ask the question. If you have a suggestion I'd be happy t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",YES,NO,False,True,919.1589,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",YES,NO,False,True,635.6867,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and  I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",NO,YES,False,True,14449.5298,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T04:52:17.767000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"i don't know, i feel like the Eliza list might be a distraction. there's decent guesses on it which haven't been made ye",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast.  One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",YES,YES,True,True,85.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-05T14:21:20.801000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The upside surely would be to continue getting his good favor and, more importantly, money. I doubt that was dependent o",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game.
+The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",YES,YES,True,True,58448.9294,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T17:29:44.302000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What is his excuse?  He has to either resolve or claim that he re-filed.  Doing neither isn't an option.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T16:43:11.929000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","This article seems to mostly be a rehash of what we had already pieced together months ago. However, their portrayal of ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",NO,NO,True,True,1550.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T13:09:00.631000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Sure, but we now have evidence that he didn’t act entirely rationally, so…",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2134.4637,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T02:03:40.375000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Almost done constructing the Round 3 puzzle.  You'll probably be able to tell as soon as the first day's hint hits, but.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",NO,NO,True,True,2399.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have:
+$3k to various charities
+A truck full of supplies to a",YES,YES,True,True,2.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T11:07:24.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think you are on to something here. The answer is however known to be from the set of 26 letters. Are there any that d,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-13T02:58:52.163000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,F that was fast. . . . I don't know. I heard he parties pretty hard.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,NO,NO,True,True,14.782,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T00:41:31.148000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Rumors circulate. See 
+this thread
+ for some of the allegations.",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",YES,YES,True,True,58448.9294,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say.  I want to see a resolution on the doc",NO,NO,True,True,1784.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T13:32:24.063000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I fell asleep at like 9:30pm yesterday (due to some intense summer solstice sleep debt) and am going to have to read ove,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok 
+ 
+I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T17:33:51.356000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1593263038542381058
+Mr. Bankman-Fried often communicated by using applications that w",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:12:30.084000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"right!  I think that threatening to review-bomb is an appropriate level of bratting on this market, but that being said,",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T16:31:40.975000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,is Trump expected to inspect venue plumbing quality before booking? Not trying to make a big deal over this but I'm stil,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,YES,YES,True,True,50.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago:
+Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,120.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,214 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T22:16:38.834000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,don't waste too many guesses when someone else already guessed the same thing on the same day,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",decrease,hold,False,True,351.9836,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:42:08.843000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"you have the power to consciously choose to not goof off, don't make the same life ruining mistakes I am, be better than",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T07:10:10.276000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Assuming the requirement is ""every question in the set has to be solved at least 50% of the time"". Then obviously it's h",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret ""
+What is the minimum and maximum numb",decrease,increase,False,True,10134.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",flip,decrease,False,True,645.8866,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:34:20.973000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This market should have a heavy  bias to NO because by betting NO one signals one’s own innocence for the low price of f,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False,True,8638.7072,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:54:21.841000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",But under what circumstances would he have had to explain any such things before FTX's balance sheet was leaked in Novem,decrease,decrease,True,True,1241.628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T11:06:02.209000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I will join @Gen in their offer. I pledge 50% of my profits on this market to the primary partners of 
+ 
+@Gen is respo",flip,hold,False,True,35.125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T02:09:55.962000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Well, third time to analyze one of these things.
+The ""float around 50%"" argument still seems to apply at a high level. ",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:13.001000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Why on earth would you want an error free hint?,flip,hold,False,True,414.5979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,flip,True,True,76.996,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with 
+ if he resolves no",hold,flip,False,True,735.3906,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T18:43:39.969000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This does not seem related to what I said.,hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-25T18:07:14.846000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I've edited it in to the market description just now. Thanks for the prompt!,decrease,hold,False,True,13564.6088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:50:46.219000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Also we now know that it takes at least 6 minutes to prepare the hint.,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T15:20:19.482000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I’ll add a lot more to show support for the TFC,increase,increase,True,True,2131.0191,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:56:54.607000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The given strategy is nondeterministic, so it does not solve the problem.",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,hold,False,True,134.929,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:04:07.361000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Would you like to tie my hands for a price and prevent me from buying YES or selling NO? That seems like a more concrete,hold,hold,True,True,56.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:21:10.551000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Make sure to check out some of the options over there!,increase,hold,False,True,3989.4167,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T15:47:33.155000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I agree now that there's a lot of ambiguity. I'll write a top-level comment.,hold,decrease,False,True,320.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T20:20:28.319000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,That's a great point. My original benchmark question originally generated all manner of confusion and consternation amon,decrease,decrease,True,True,32845.8691,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:33:25.219000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,though that could change if the market position were reversed,hold,decrease,False,True,190.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T13:54:40.990000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,", I'm assuming that if two people have over 5,000 NO shares then this market will resolve YES. 
+, is that right?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T14:03:16.673000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Oh, the IO thing is already solved! Just waiting for more hints.  
+https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-a",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T16:47:23.335000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"It was a guaranteed 5% right away, and this was a probably 5% in two weeks.",decrease,hold,False,True,279.2884,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",flip,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T15:57:22.100000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"What false have I said about you? And, if you did sue me for making false statements, that case would get thrown out bec",increase,increase,True,True,3120.0573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T01:00:00.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"you have ISHBIERRA, there should be another I in there.",increase,increase,True,True,3376.5184,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",increase,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:12:23.881000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",The FTX deposit account was literally Alameda's bank account. That is customers were depositing funds directly to Alamed,decrease,increase,False,True,491.1779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T17:09:16.457000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"the problem doesn't sound too hard, and I have some ideas myself that I want to work out tomorrow.",flip,decrease,False,True,1241.7914,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:41:43.965000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Looking"" how? Neither Will nor Tara had access to balance sheets. And just because someone is generally an unlawful oat",hold,increase,False,True,1800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T16:45:18.137000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I'm glad all these clues have errors so no one will be able to solve the puzzle.,decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So 
+{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese?
+{harbor, h",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: 
+https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",hold,decrease,False,True,1279.9304,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:52:59.081000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, have some type of fun in the comments!",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think 
+ is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point 
+if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T12:21:03.939000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",even re-reading the New Yorker excerpts? I was thinking the opposite this morning,hold,flip,False,True,468.7276,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T14:59:23.515000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The main idea is likely to only add one element of each found element of B to R at a time, so we eliminate as few possib",increase,hold,False,True,419.3523,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
+Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,decrease,True,True,31781.3143,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:04.915000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If Ai Can't figure that out, are there any timetravellers or mind readers here?",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T13:05:49.437000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"English language for reference
+The O/I thing seems 
+REALLY
+ relevant. Every single word has either an o or an i; what",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T04:26:49.487000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),As soon as you hold those No shares you gotta suit up and play the part. Once you become a net Yes holder you can start ,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T07:30:16.544000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Not quite sure what this is referencing.
+Edit: Ah, I see, just looking at the first letters of words.",flip,hold,False,True,4615.0118,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-20T19:15:45.864000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","> Yeah, well that's the crux. Just being known to some people somewhere is not good enough. It would have to be all the ",increase,increase,True,True,73.9925,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T16:22:43.537000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i will bring miacat back if you resolve yes,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:28:20.268000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending ",hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:46:29.363000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"No, it wouldn't make sense.  Paying on this kind of thing is encouraging more of it.  This is just part of the cost of d",increase,increase,True,True,19.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes
+or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T14:02:52.648000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Nice. I think he got the earning to give schtick from a MacAskill talk at MIT.,hold,hold,True,True,2124.358,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T02:16:25.837000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Ok, let's try Monday and  ""Hapax"" legomenon = a symbol, word, or sequence that appears only once in a text",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-02T00:28:47.771000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"For posterity, here's my suite of alternate problems and the log of the results I got. Note that everything after Proble",hold,decrease,False,True,31510.6908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,decrease,False,True,17940.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:22:37.360000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Would you be able to say how you'll decide whether ""they had enough evidence to conclude there was fraud happening""? 
+I",increase,decrease,False,True,876.092,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post 
+for free
+ (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,increase,False,True,27486.464,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False,True,8305.4964,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:15:05.554000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You don't think I would cut off three of my toes for 15 units of fake internet money? And here I was thinking you knew m,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:35:13.703000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",(tbh I wish you would write more thorough & rigorous definitions of market criteria in general),decrease,hold,False,True,14.782,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:36:38.778000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Uhh okay. I dont have an alt in this market. My main alt used to be 
+ but i've not used that in a while. The top No hol",increase,hold,False,True,60248.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T23:57:12.578000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,We probably should confirm though... it's at the time of close right?,increase,decrease,False,True,76.8838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:33:39.340000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I'm not sure lots of companies have nearly as bad accounting!! (and the bad accounting IS ""unethical behavior related to",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T21:56:07.847000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If this is at 49, that means people think that we still wouldn't get it even with 16 more hints!",flip,decrease,False,True,3631.2297,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T20:44:23.782000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,oh wait this is all about at close. NVM. Disregard.,increase,decrease,False,True,26969.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T10:25:22.735000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Let's eliminate 1 and 2 as too skewed towards NO and YES, respectively. I'm actually not sure if any bettor would expect",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Period
+Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role:
+End of a sentence",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,decrease,True,True,798.3539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:11.357000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Anyone else noticed every hint has I or O in it?,increase,hold,False,True,46.8628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:41:39.036000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That would explain a lot. But 9gag and 9lives are still out of place.,decrease,decrease,True,True,6314.3955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"yes
+Link
+ to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-07-14T17:57:03.363000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.wsj.com/articles/binance-lays-off-over-1-000-employees-d59ff6ad
+The exercise, which is continuing, could re",hold,increase,False,True,69.0363,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,decrease,False,True,1211.4803,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money 
+…..offshore exchanges 
+……………………………..market-maker on own exchange 
+………………………………………high FDV/low f",increase,flip,False,True,91.6133,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T08:15:10.071000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We need a Metaculus metamarket.,hold,hold,True,True,1007.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:55:37.659000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I don’t think this can be resolved either way without testing the model with the highest likelihood of passing. 
+I thin",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-05T00:14:31.841000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"si LK 5  🤣 
+Lest you ask think I've gone mad.",increase,hold,False,True,2947.8207,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-29T15:46:53.777000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: What did you picture when you made this market? What do you find beautiful and strange?
+Ben, I’m going to set as",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T04:43:40.353000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2023-11-29/portuguese-vet-goes-viral/83754
+André Santos
+ from 
+Portugal
+ went v",hold,hold,True,True,53.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T16:45:57.551000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This is not an action in assumpsit (contract), trespass (a tort), or brought by a government agency for fines. You are b",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,hold,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:44:55.822000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"i think it means that the communication of the LLM and the adjacent systems is through natural language, making sure tha",hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Tldr;
+Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""!
+Cool bro. We should ha",hold,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T06:46:30.253000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"People kept buying the market really low (50%-60%) right at the start and I wanted my subsidy to move 
+p
+ as close to ",increase,hold,False,True,4359.4086,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T18:56:01.245000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I really don't think we will solve it, people should buy like 10,000 mana of No shares right now.",flip,increase,False,True,589.8429,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:16:27.296000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,it's ok if the LLM calls other systems as subroutines as long as it still works as purely natural language dialog,hold,increase,False,True,20981.5321,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:35:43.756000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Keep track of moving parts in the explanation. For example, when pressed on the FTX TOS, he always started talking about",hold,increase,False,True,28.9702,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:56:19.436000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it looks like it hasn’t been tried. Weird. 
+Note that ‘hamlet’ was not capitalized. The Shakespeare reference may be a ",increase,hold,False,True,680.7731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:37:06.543000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"if there is any logic  , LLM models might be able to solve it",flip,flip,True,True,13.9625,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T05:06:45.742000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Did you read the justification post? More than half of them were just hand-waving.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10284.2137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T18:44:33.863000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you are interested in solving it yourself, I recommend not reading the comments and not looking at any of the other m",increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:42:40.668000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"even if you don't intend on repeating, it sets a precedent for future threats from others",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:03:11.930000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"exactly, we all do the same probably",increase,hold,False,True,209.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T13:54:29.625000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given the high standard for this market, I agree that this is insufficient. But in real life, where standards are differ",increase,decrease,False,True,132.9797,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T00:02:33.851000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"A link to a hypothetical well-structured onramp, collaboration and discussion space",hold,hold,True,True,155.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:43:44.511000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),what should I add to the pinned comment? The guesses?,decrease,hold,False,True,1164.5083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T11:40:11.938000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Just to be clear, my offer was that if the market resolves NO 
+ will get half my profits. You don't have to do anything",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T19:38:45.040000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I don't know if I'm the best trader on the site. I am also most certainly not the richest, that would be the founders, p",hold,hold,True,True,59862.1179,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T15:53:57.174000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I'm curious about the following:  I can't find any case law on whether discussions with LLMs would be discoverable or ad,hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,decrease,decrease,True,True,5858.0321,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:38:26.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We need AAAAR, AAAAS, AAAAT, AAAAU, AAAAV, AAAAW, AAAAX, AAAAY, AAAAZ to be guessed.",flip,decrease,False,True,141.1758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:14:14.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Folks, it makes no sense to buy YES before he has given us today’s hints.",decrease,decrease,True,True,1879.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:37:31.165000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"edit: 
+year of kindness, ignore",increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T21:51:58.562000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think this would be significantly easier if we had one clean hint with no errors.,flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-09T21:10:14.177000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"for what it's worth, I still find these criteria quite vague and would like and invest in this market more if you specif",flip,decrease,False,True,229.0267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets""
+https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,increase,True,True,22.141,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,decrease,False,True,1677.3368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:58:02.428000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Surplus guesses for anyone’s taking at:
+https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-bens-puzzle-be-solved-in-the-l#208lwsui1i",increase,hold,False,True,437.0176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:23:49.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,what is your estimate of the probability that it would happen in the counterfactual that it was not resolved no? going f,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
+Or loosing vast ",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T04:32:13.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"At the time I wrote that, the market was at like 57% or something and there were multiple thousands of limit order walls",increase,hold,False,True,2263.2867,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I have another one in the same series!,hold,hold,True,True,178.3577,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-10T06:15:27.891000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I banked mine a couple days ago and didn't get reprimanded.,increase,hold,False,True,2306.2562,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: 
+C-XXX  (
+The solution must consist of 
+five letters from the English alphabet
+ (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:14:38.384000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Why do you think it has to be the person running the market who would do this.  Anyone can do it.,decrease,hold,False,True,5075.0982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:36:51.176000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"weird! I did that prompt and then also tried with numbering 1–4. In either case, I get 20-40 seconds of thought with con",increase,decrease,False,True,2792.9622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:44:01.537000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Thinking about this it’s clear they obviously knew so anything short of publicly exposing him as an unethical fraud is a,hold,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:47:39.317000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Betting no because he said in another thread he is using statistical models to judge legal documents for him.,hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,decrease,False,True,414.5979,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T09:01:00.228000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think your original post was actually pretty clear!
+If you wanted to further clarify, you could say something like: """,hold,decrease,False,True,1165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:26:09.274000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,The algorithm only generates one query that tests 1/100n^2 of the possible Q. It can't cover all possible Q in a small n,increase,decrease,False,True,1213.9562,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/
+ Coinba",hold,increase,False,True,271.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T22:03:02.808000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'll get pro mode if necessary. The market description says it still counts if it costs money.,decrease,increase,False,True,31878.534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T03:16:20.157000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there still a secret group working in the shadows? I want in,decrease,hold,False,True,8552.9027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:13:47.765000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Or of they had incredibly poor epistemics/trust despite hearing/knowing bad or very bad stuff,decrease,decrease,True,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T18:22:01.026000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I'm gonna take so much EA money on this one lmao,decrease,increase,False,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T04:42:25.281000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Resolve YES and this market has the potential to become a legendary meme on Manifold, a NO will simply be forgotten and ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T21:31:48.524000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","relative to your market description, these points seem pretty tame. IMO 1, 3, and 5 would have been pretty clear to anyo",hold,decrease,False,True,73.9925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",hold,decrease,False,True,11688.3788,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-10T21:04:11.344000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Honestly, I will be sad when this market resolves. It's been a fun roller coaster. [Granted, that's becasue most of this",increase,hold,False,True,2470.0573,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:41:40.822000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"If you resolve this market YES, it means humans are performing well relative to AI. Since I presume you're a human, this",decrease,decrease,True,True,21.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:54:58.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think cats have ""9 lives"", not ""9lives"", which is probably not a real thing.",decrease,decrease,True,True,11659.1888,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T07:05:25.956000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think we would derive a huge benefit from one error-free hint OR one hint with the meta hint attached. It would not le,decrease,decrease,True,True,1650.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,101 @@
+market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:43:44.511000+00:00,what should I add to the pinned comment? The guesses?,decrease,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",decrease,hold,False
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T09:01:00.228000+00:00,"I think your original post was actually pretty clear!
+If you wanted to further clarify, you could say something like: """,hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T05:06:45.742000+00:00,Did you read the justification post? More than half of them were just hand-waving.,decrease,decrease,True
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T07:05:25.956000+00:00,I think we would derive a huge benefit from one error-free hint OR one hint with the meta hint attached. It would not le,decrease,hold,False
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-25T18:07:14.846000+00:00,I've edited it in to the market description just now. Thanks for the prompt!,decrease,decrease,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:12:23.881000+00:00,The FTX deposit account was literally Alameda's bank account. That is customers were depositing funds directly to Alamed,decrease,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T18:43:39.969000+00:00,This does not seem related to what I said.,hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:54:58.088000+00:00,"I think cats have ""9 lives"", not ""9lives"", which is probably not a real thing.",decrease,decrease,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:54:21.841000+00:00,But under what circumstances would he have had to explain any such things before FTX's balance sheet was leaked in Novem,decrease,hold,False
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:44:55.822000+00:00,"i think it means that the communication of the LLM and the adjacent systems is through natural language, making sure tha",hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T04:43:40.353000+00:00,"https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2023-11-29/portuguese-vet-goes-viral/83754
+André Santos
+ from 
+Portugal
+ went v",hold,decrease,False
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:14:14.857000+00:00,"Folks, it makes no sense to buy YES before he has given us today’s hints.",decrease,hold,False
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:47:39.317000+00:00,Betting no because he said in another thread he is using statistical models to judge legal documents for him.,hold,decrease,False
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T16:47:23.335000+00:00,"It was a guaranteed 5% right away, and this was a probably 5% in two weeks.",decrease,decrease,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T14:02:52.648000+00:00,Nice. I think he got the earning to give schtick from a MacAskill talk at MIT.,hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-29T15:46:53.777000+00:00,"TL;DR: What did you picture when you made this market? What do you find beautiful and strange?
+Ben, I’m going to set as",hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"Tldr;
+Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""!
+Cool bro. We should ha",hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:42:08.843000+00:00,"you have the power to consciously choose to not goof off, don't make the same life ruining mistakes I am, be better than",hold,decrease,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,decrease,decrease,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,decrease,False
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T19:38:45.040000+00:00,"I don't know if I'm the best trader on the site. I am also most certainly not the richest, that would be the founders, p",hold,hold,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-02T00:28:47.771000+00:00,"For posterity, here's my suite of alternate problems and the log of the results I got. Note that everything after Proble",hold,decrease,False
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T00:02:33.851000+00:00,"A link to a hypothetical well-structured onramp, collaboration and discussion space",hold,hold,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,decrease,decrease,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
+Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,decrease,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",hold,decrease,False
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:33:25.219000+00:00,though that could change if the market position were reversed,hold,decrease,False
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/
+ Coinba",hold,decrease,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:35:13.703000+00:00,(tbh I wish you would write more thorough & rigorous definitions of market criteria in general),decrease,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So 
+{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese?
+{harbor, h",decrease,hold,False
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,decrease,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T03:16:20.157000+00:00,Is there still a secret group working in the shadows? I want in,decrease,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T18:22:01.026000+00:00,I'm gonna take so much EA money on this one lmao,decrease,decrease,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T22:16:38.834000+00:00,don't waste too many guesses when someone else already guessed the same thing on the same day,decrease,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:41:39.036000+00:00,That would explain a lot. But 9gag and 9lives are still out of place.,decrease,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: 
+https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",hold,decrease,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,Good idea. I added that to the description.,decrease,hold,False
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,"yes
+Link
+ to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:35:43.756000+00:00,"Keep track of moving parts in the explanation. For example, when pressed on the FTX TOS, he always started talking about",hold,hold,True
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T11:40:11.938000+00:00,"Just to be clear, my offer was that if the market resolves NO 
+ will get half my profits. You don't have to do anything",decrease,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T08:15:10.071000+00:00,We need a Metaculus metamarket.,hold,hold,True
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T15:53:57.174000+00:00,I'm curious about the following:  I can't find any case law on whether discussions with LLMs would be discoverable or ad,hold,decrease,False
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:14:38.384000+00:00,Why do you think it has to be the person running the market who would do this.  Anyone can do it.,decrease,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,decrease,decrease,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:33:39.340000+00:00,"I'm not sure lots of companies have nearly as bad accounting!! (and the bad accounting IS ""unethical behavior related to",decrease,decrease,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:28:20.268000+00:00,"""The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending ",hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:41:43.965000+00:00,"""Looking"" how? Neither Will nor Tara had access to balance sheets. And just because someone is generally an unlawful oat",hold,hold,True
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,hold,decrease,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:13:47.765000+00:00,Or of they had incredibly poor epistemics/trust despite hearing/knowing bad or very bad stuff,decrease,decrease,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T20:20:28.319000+00:00,That's a great point. My original benchmark question originally generated all manner of confusion and consternation amon,decrease,hold,False
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:41:40.822000+00:00,"If you resolve this market YES, it means humans are performing well relative to AI. Since I presume you're a human, this",decrease,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,I have another one in the same series!,hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T21:31:48.524000+00:00,"relative to your market description, these points seem pretty tame. IMO 1, 3, and 5 would have been pretty clear to anyo",hold,decrease,False
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,decrease,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
+Or loosing vast ",decrease,decrease,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T10:25:22.735000+00:00,"Let's eliminate 1 and 2 as too skewed towards NO and YES, respectively. I'm actually not sure if any bettor would expect",decrease,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with 
+ if he resolves no",hold,decrease,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-07-14T17:57:03.363000+00:00,"https://www.wsj.com/articles/binance-lays-off-over-1-000-employees-d59ff6ad
+The exercise, which is continuing, could re",hold,decrease,False
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T16:22:43.537000+00:00,i will bring miacat back if you resolve yes,hold,hold,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:16:27.296000+00:00,it's ok if the LLM calls other systems as subroutines as long as it still works as purely natural language dialog,hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T12:21:03.939000+00:00,even re-reading the New Yorker excerpts? I was thinking the opposite this morning,hold,decrease,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:52:59.081000+00:00,"thanks, have some type of fun in the comments!",decrease,hold,False
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T16:45:18.137000+00:00,I'm glad all these clues have errors so no one will be able to solve the puzzle.,decrease,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:34:20.973000+00:00,This market should have a heavy  bias to NO because by betting NO one signals one’s own innocence for the low price of f,decrease,decrease,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T22:03:02.808000+00:00,I'll get pro mode if necessary. The market description says it still counts if it costs money.,decrease,decrease,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret ""
+What is the minimum and maximum numb",decrease,decrease,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,decrease,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:44:01.537000+00:00,Thinking about this it’s clear they obviously knew so anything short of publicly exposing him as an unethical fraud is a,hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T15:47:33.155000+00:00,I agree now that there's a lot of ambiguity. I'll write a top-level comment.,hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:04:07.361000+00:00,Would you like to tie my hands for a price and prevent me from buying YES or selling NO? That seems like a more concrete,hold,decrease,False

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,"I understand that but I think 
+ is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point 
+if we want to solve it.",flip,hold,False
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,flip,hold,False
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:15:05.554000+00:00,You don't think I would cut off three of my toes for 15 units of fake internet money? And here I was thinking you knew m,flip,flip,True
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,"i have a new potential solution which I will post 
+for free
+ (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,hold,False
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:56:54.607000+00:00,"The given strategy is nondeterministic, so it does not solve the problem.",flip,hold,False
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T21:56:07.847000+00:00,"If this is at 49, that means people think that we still wouldn't get it even with 16 more hints!",flip,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T09:01:00.228000+00:00,"I think your original post was actually pretty clear!
+If you wanted to further clarify, you could say something like: """,hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,hold,False
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes
+or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,hold,False
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:47:39.317000+00:00,Betting no because he said in another thread he is using statistical models to judge legal documents for him.,hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T18:43:39.969000+00:00,This does not seem related to what I said.,hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,flip,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:37:06.543000+00:00,"if there is any logic  , LLM models might be able to solve it",flip,flip,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:42:08.843000+00:00,"you have the power to consciously choose to not goof off, don't make the same life ruining mistakes I am, be better than",hold,flip,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"Tldr;
+Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""!
+Cool bro. We should ha",hold,hold,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:44:55.822000+00:00,"i think it means that the communication of the LLM and the adjacent systems is through natural language, making sure tha",hold,hold,True
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T19:38:45.040000+00:00,"I don't know if I'm the best trader on the site. I am also most certainly not the richest, that would be the founders, p",hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T04:43:40.353000+00:00,"https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2023-11-29/portuguese-vet-goes-viral/83754
+André Santos
+ from 
+Portugal
+ went v",hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T14:02:52.648000+00:00,Nice. I think he got the earning to give schtick from a MacAskill talk at MIT.,hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T18:56:01.245000+00:00,"I really don't think we will solve it, people should buy like 10,000 mana of No shares right now.",flip,hold,False
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-29T15:46:53.777000+00:00,"TL;DR: What did you picture when you made this market? What do you find beautiful and strange?
+Ben, I’m going to set as",hold,flip,False
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-02T00:28:47.771000+00:00,"For posterity, here's my suite of alternate problems and the log of the results I got. Note that everything after Proble",hold,flip,False
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,hold,False
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,hold,True
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T00:02:33.851000+00:00,"A link to a hypothetical well-structured onramp, collaboration and discussion space",hold,hold,True
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:50:46.219000+00:00,Also we now know that it takes at least 6 minutes to prepare the hint.,flip,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,hold,False
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:33:25.219000+00:00,though that could change if the market position were reversed,hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",hold,flip,False
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:35:43.756000+00:00,"Keep track of moving parts in the explanation. For example, when pressed on the FTX TOS, he always started talking about",hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,"yes
+Link
+ to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: 
+https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,flip,True
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/
+ Coinba",hold,hold,True
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T21:51:58.562000+00:00,I think this would be significantly easier if we had one clean hint with no errors.,flip,hold,False
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,flip,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:38:26.132000+00:00,"We need AAAAR, AAAAS, AAAAT, AAAAU, AAAAV, AAAAW, AAAAX, AAAAY, AAAAZ to be guessed.",flip,hold,False
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T04:26:49.487000+00:00,As soon as you hold those No shares you gotta suit up and play the part. Once you become a net Yes holder you can start ,flip,flip,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-09T21:10:14.177000+00:00,"for what it's worth, I still find these criteria quite vague and would like and invest in this market more if you specif",flip,flip,True
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T08:15:10.071000+00:00,We need a Metaculus metamarket.,hold,hold,True
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T15:53:57.174000+00:00,I'm curious about the following:  I can't find any case law on whether discussions with LLMs would be discoverable or ad,hold,flip,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:41:43.965000+00:00,"""Looking"" how? Neither Will nor Tara had access to balance sheets. And just because someone is generally an unlawful oat",hold,hold,True
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T11:06:02.209000+00:00,"I will join @Gen in their offer. I pledge 50% of my profits on this market to the primary partners of 
+ 
+@Gen is respo",flip,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T21:31:48.524000+00:00,"relative to your market description, these points seem pretty tame. IMO 1, 3, and 5 would have been pretty clear to anyo",hold,flip,False
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T17:09:16.457000+00:00,"the problem doesn't sound too hard, and I have some ideas myself that I want to work out tomorrow.",flip,hold,False
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,hold,flip,False
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T07:30:16.544000+00:00,"Not quite sure what this is referencing.
+Edit: Ah, I see, just looking at the first letters of words.",flip,hold,False
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:13.001000+00:00,Why on earth would you want an error free hint?,flip,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:28:20.268000+00:00,"""The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending ",hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with 
+ if he resolves no",hold,flip,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,I have another one in the same series!,hold,flip,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:04.915000+00:00,"If Ai Can't figure that out, are there any timetravellers or mind readers here?",flip,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T12:21:03.939000+00:00,even re-reading the New Yorker excerpts? I was thinking the opposite this morning,hold,flip,False
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-07-14T17:57:03.363000+00:00,"https://www.wsj.com/articles/binance-lays-off-over-1-000-employees-d59ff6ad
+The exercise, which is continuing, could re",hold,hold,True
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T16:22:43.537000+00:00,i will bring miacat back if you resolve yes,hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:16:27.296000+00:00,it's ok if the LLM calls other systems as subroutines as long as it still works as purely natural language dialog,hold,hold,True
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,hold,False
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",flip,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",flip,hold,False
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,hold,True
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T02:16:25.837000+00:00,"Ok, let's try Monday and  ""Hapax"" legomenon = a symbol, word, or sequence that appears only once in a text",flip,flip,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:44:01.537000+00:00,Thinking about this it’s clear they obviously knew so anything short of publicly exposing him as an unethical fraud is a,hold,hold,True
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:04:07.361000+00:00,Would you like to tie my hands for a price and prevent me from buying YES or selling NO? That seems like a more concrete,hold,hold,True
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,hold,True
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T15:47:33.155000+00:00,I agree now that there's a lot of ambiguity. I'll write a top-level comment.,hold,hold,True
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,hold,False
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,"Period
+Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role:
+End of a sentence",flip,hold,False

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h12.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,202 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-06T19:59:59.205000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"yeah well, I had a couple of good guesses in store that I wanted to try before the new batch.",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.3354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T23:07:50.922000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did not need to use AI for this: a 9-iron is a type of golf club,decrease,hold,False,True,5922.8747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:59:54.639000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"If you wouldn't resolve in exchange for me donating a trunk of supplies to a Vietnamese orphanage, I don't think anythin",hold,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:56:54.607000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The given strategy is nondeterministic, so it does not solve the problem.",increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It depends on what you mean by that.
+Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T21:03:40.248000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"12/9/25: ADATE
+All guesses must include a date in the submission",flip,hold,False,True,154.5049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T19:49:44.411000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"He said it's harder this time, so it's probably gonna be something even more wack. I doubt we would be able to get headw",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T15:20:19.482000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I’ll add a lot more to show support for the TFC,increase,increase,True,True,2131.0191,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:51:26.631000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Fair points. Of course I'm doing my best to keep all the problems at the same level of difficulty. I'd characterize that,decrease,hold,False,True,31981.9606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T16:08:14.148000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"if it's in the list, someone probably tried it. The list may not be complete. There may have been errors in data extract",flip,decrease,False,True,589.8429,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",flip,hold,False,True,2405.1062,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:25:49.171000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),if you cancel your 36 orders before the hint comes out I will buy enough No to get it to 35 for an error free hint today,flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T03:10:31.517000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,VPP can be Voiced (something) Plosive as well?,hold,hold,True,True,351.9836,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T13:54:40.990000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,", I'm assuming that if two people have over 5,000 NO shares then this market will resolve YES. 
+, is that right?",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T01:26:56.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Or add them to the multi-market so we can bet on them!,decrease,hold,False,True,5420.9695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T04:53:05.799000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),how many hints/bits when it is solved,increase,decrease,False,True,4359.4086,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,hold,False,True,660.3906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T11:58:01.040000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sure. But this is expensive, and risky.",flip,decrease,False,True,384.1431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T09:58:22.909000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"review OP's other comments, he said he's gotten other settlements previously",hold,increase,False,True,882.0976,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T21:36:02.105000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"In all seriousness, Ben is cool, and I like the antics he gets up to.",decrease,hold,False,True,85.5049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,increase,increase,True,True,142.7698,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:35:45.567000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"it's asymmetric though, splitting the profit is not enough, since they have nothing to lose but you do",hold,decrease,False,True,598.0875,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,decrease,decrease,True,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,decrease,False,True,1211.4803,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T15:38:31.034000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"it shouldn't be giving you a different model unless you select the ""Auto"" experimental feature.",increase,hold,False,True,3292.9622,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:45:18.868000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,how about instead of weird stuff we just do it the straightforward way.,increase,decrease,False,True,6275.9066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T21:04:47.445000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Sir, there is nothing classic about this ""strategy""; there is a real alien bomb placed in the core of the Earth - they'v",decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%.  I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T20:54:53.563000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Nicely done. All i got to does is hold these shares for the remaining time of this market. Then it resolve YES,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:31:23.446000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you want the actual program idea, I think what we should do is:
+- First, we manually list 3-4 possible picture inter",increase,increase,True,True,761.872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T19:16:53.025000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I meant that EA leaders aren't precluded from seeing smoking guns of specific lawbreaking just because early Alameda emp,increase,decrease,False,True,593.7603,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T22:48:54.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's not even Christmas yet, I thought Santa would be busy making elves or whatever he does.",increase,decrease,False,True,11762.6925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:14:14.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Folks, it makes no sense to buy YES before he has given us today’s hints.",decrease,decrease,True,True,1879.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T21:21:30.498000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Number of guesses per day isn’t meaningful, because it won’t be solved by stabs in the dark. Being solved after clue 21 ",flip,decrease,False,True,251.6507,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T19:18:50.773000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,thank you for letting it slide,hold,hold,True,True,7827.0253,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:34:04.350000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The true filter to determine which of us here are Millenials or older.,decrease,hold,False,True,61.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:54:36.419000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Sounds like the possible protocols are as follows, assuming k trials each for n problems:
+If, for every one of the n pr",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. 
+  since you’r",hold,hold,True,True,14529.9924,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:00:50.217000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"yeah i feel lied to as well, please resolve yes so that our time it took to invest is not in vain",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post 
+for free
+ (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:36:56.227000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Santos, Presidente, .. , herring, .., N ..., 9gag (or i) - all points to
+husky 
+- ??",hold,hold,True,True,6.635,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:10:17.068000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"name your favourite charity and an amount of real world money that would persuade you to resolve YES.
+You could use thi",increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:18:53.461000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Lol, why are you so angry. Simmer down son.
+I was pointing out that fraud was likely a running theme probably not a one",decrease,increase,False,True,591.1779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-21T19:22:14.010000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I've laid down some (small) YES limits from 16 to 12, if anyone wants to fill them.",flip,hold,False,True,1923.4859,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:05:49.598000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,12/15/25 LMBRV (prob already tried but not on the eliza list?),increase,hold,False,True,1332.9812,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:40:13.783000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,and yet you sold your yes shares 🤔,flip,decrease,False,True,578.0375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T00:47:47.744000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I don't see the incentives for that to matter? My goal is for him to imagine the hungry kids who quite literally would g,increase,hold,False,True,225.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-20T20:36:29.834000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"The new o3 model announced today seems extremely likely to be able to solve these problems given its benchmark results, ",hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-01T19:09:30.022000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Finally have enough Mana now. I currently have 1300 $M at 30%. If you want more, let me know",hold,increase,False,True,3479.6372,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:37:56.903000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I join the offer. If the market resolves NO I will sent half my profits to,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T05:00:45.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Now, we need to modify the subroutine to work after the first time, otherwise it will return the same element each time.",hold,hold,True,True,466.4627,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T10:53:29.928000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,My pointing out of the problem doesn't change the fact it exists wut.,hold,hold,True,True,1500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T22:01:38.060000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Who could have known that ""circling"" should be approached with a large doses of caution if approached at all?",hold,decrease,False,True,2222.921,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",increase,increase,True,True,391.4627,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,also where is this limit order,flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T23:45:50.780000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Somebody needs to find the link between the coastal theme and the phonology theme,decrease,hold,False,True,5925.3259,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-18T22:58:50.251000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","There are a bunch of outstanding questions about the resolution criteria in the comments IIRC, and I don't think they're",decrease,decrease,True,True,664.0413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",flip,flip,True,True,919.1589,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:49:00.537000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"OK, how about I promise to coordinate a game of hide-and-seek in the sprawling labrinthine mansion of LightHaven if you ",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:54:21.841000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",But under what circumstances would he have had to explain any such things before FTX's balance sheet was leaked in Novem,decrease,decrease,True,True,1241.628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T18:44:33.863000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you are interested in solving it yourself, I recommend not reading the comments and not looking at any of the other m",increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T14:26:16.614000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think an important note is that it's possible that he should have had some public concerns raised by leadership, but t",increase,decrease,False,True,1510.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T16:45:03.642000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/55804774/Sokolowski_v_Wells_Fargo_Bank,_NA
+A link to the federal docket. Answe",decrease,decrease,True,True,3819.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T15:15:39.849000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Sure.  There was just a sealed document with 35 exhibits filed by the SEC against Binance.  There's no possible way that,increase,increase,True,True,85.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T19:44:18.239000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I can't figure out the cube and am out of other ideas,decrease,decrease,True,True,134.929,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:29:13.093000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I think the percentages in the description imply he plans to give as many as 500 hints and still not have it solved. By ,flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T23:00:22.455000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,would you accept a randomized subexponential algorithm as proof that a strategy exists?,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False,True,8638.7072,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T21:00:28.459000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Thank you for the clarification!,increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:21:35.097000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Messi could make several thousand profit just by holding 4999 no shares and resolving no, thats way more than that bribe",flip,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T15:10:14.578000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"It's still consistently wrong for me when I try to adjust the prompt in that way, though I see how asking it to count at",decrease,decrease,True,True,271.153,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T18:56:51.299000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Case removed to federal court? This is a NO all day long and twice on Sunday.,hold,increase,False,True,3650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T02:07:19.075000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"https://chatgpt.com/share/67525af0-1a78-8012-917e-003467389d96
+ of one 
+And this is another, I think correct but inter",hold,increase,False,True,10134.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T15:04:22.363000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I was the person who requested the 30 day deadline, and thank goodness I did.  Because your claim that you had WF dead t",hold,decrease,False,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-23T19:10:39.582000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"llama-3.1-405b-instruct (Try it here: 
+https://chat.tune.app/
+)
+To determine the minimum and maximum number of line i",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:48.830000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,what makes you believe this is a period,hold,hold,True,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:10:29.483000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"in fact, wouldnt u make more money if u sell a little bit at the very end?",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T02:14:20.003000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),More analogous is if every 3 per group of 5 bits was unreliable. Which I think would be untenable in the last puzzle. Ev,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",hold,hold,True,True,1800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:11:03.748000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm gonna donate all my net profit from this market if you resolve Yes. We can discuss how.,decrease,increase,False,True,81.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:14:09.039000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I agree they wouldn't have concluded that, but they don't need to have known about the specifics of recent revelations f",hold,increase,False,True,508.7276,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",increase,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T23:25:00.451000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but not 
+too
+ heavily, or you'll make yes come true",hold,decrease,False,True,58348.9294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-31T05:20:51.683000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Impressive stuff! But I think it's still wanting a natural language UI, right?",hold,hold,True,True,76.0539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T03:02:30.062000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"whaddya mean, surely everyone has put together several good leads by now.",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T08:59:49.246000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I am trapped in 
+ until the 16th day hint comes out for over 1000 mana so I guess this is now ""Collaborate to lose Eliz",increase,decrease,False,True,27936.5655,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T14:02:15.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Confession time: I may have misread the problem a teeny tiny bit. (Or is this a bluff to squeeze more mana out of my sol,flip,decrease,False,True,25757.5376,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,decrease,False,True,17940.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T02:34:18.159000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I'm not really interested in moralising what should or shouldn't have happened (I don't think people in that Slack neces,hold,decrease,False,True,1241.8714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: 
+C-XXX  (
+The solution must consist of 
+five letters from the English alphabet
+ (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,hold,False,True,1884.3998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T17:09:16.457000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"the problem doesn't sound too hard, and I have some ideas myself that I want to work out tomorrow.",increase,decrease,False,True,1241.7914,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:30:05.330000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I bet some nerd is gonna solve it with the current clues,flip,increase,False,True,20.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T13:13:58.206000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Whatever. He was pretty successful at hiding the fraud. This suggests operational security.,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:35:53.138000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed, and also I don't think observing a lack of distinction between funds means you're observing other people's money",increase,increase,True,True,726.092,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T13:51:04.032000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it's a bad look in terms of strategy - we shouldn't have tied our name to SBF, but I think less a bad look in ge",hold,decrease,False,True,6836.3287,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,increase,False,True,27486.464,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:36:02.248000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Everyone says they won't, as a matter of course, but it's only words. 😉",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-10T03:07:46.848000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Good idea. To be extra paranoid, we should maybe not put them here on the public internet ahead of time. If anyone wants",decrease,hold,False,True,32845.8691,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-09T23:18:29.681000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I’m curious why the scope of the unethical behavior criterion precludes investor money. From digging through the numerou,hold,decrease,False,True,1309.8368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-10T21:44:23.902000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"That's how long these cases take.  I fully expect it will be 4-6 years until I get paid.
+Kevin posts a lot of nonsense ",hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:27:44.948000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","These resolution criteria change the question. The question itself was very clear, all the extra qualifiers are unnecess",decrease,decrease,True,True,875.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T22:45:19.661000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,it’s approximately spending 3000 mana on no,flip,increase,False,True,140.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:56:19.851000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,And then O would be Ocean and L could be Land or Lagoon,decrease,hold,False,True,0.4634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:25.889000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Large no holders like me and you are the only ones keeping this within range! All those traitorous Yes holders are block,flip,increase,False,True,3541.5889,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:54:35.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You can get paid off here, no need to make everyone victims in some kind of weird scheme.",increase,decrease,False,True,6275.9066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T07:33:29.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You said [O-MBRV] and now O replaced with L? That 
+is
+ something...",hold,decrease,False,True,326.9836,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",flip,flip,True,True,767.0988,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T12:29:55.220000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Floris's betting is too scary I'm taking the loss just on his trades alone,flip,decrease,False,True,396.9223,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T21:58:36.784000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Jim Cramer: ""If you have money with Binance, beat your fellow ""investors"" and get out as your assets are commingled... F",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-17T18:50:28.798000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey 
+,
+Did you know it’s National Day in Iceland? I didn’t until I stumbled into a parade this morning. Turns out that",hold,hold,True,True,13999.5298,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",hold,hold,True,True,4581.2297,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T01:20:39.071000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I was definitely reading it wrong.,increase,increase,True,True,3376.5184,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:56:41.275000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Not an EA, but someone had strong suspicions a month ago:
+https://twitter.com/Ishanb22/status/1577699083808083969",increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:50:53.455000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Don't pin it! If I want to keep it updated I'll put it in a different place that could be linked to. I have no plans to ,decrease,hold,False,True,10336.4194,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:22:15.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),If everyone wants to give up I'm okay with not solving it I guess. It seems like there is no will to unlock hints and I ,increase,decrease,False,True,2499.4701,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-09-13T01:57:17.374000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,“collapse” prior to end of ‘23 still a huge longshot.  lots of theta burning.  Still new here and didn’t realize there’s,hold,decrease,False,True,335.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:11:14.700000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The fish sauce angle is nice but I wasn't (yet) convinced by every single hint.,increase,decrease,False,True,11762.6925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:29:20.293000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Yeah ig. Well, my bribe is only for holding 5k at close, rest is their strategy",increase,hold,False,True,21069.2087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T19:25:11.265000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Gemini still thinks it's VOLVO 😂 
+Explanation of the Hints:
+Hint 1: Portugal
+ – A reference to the 
+Volvo Ocean Race",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:01.686000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok might need to work out a few kinks first, hmm. I will post a guess by eod",flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:23:30.486000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i agree. This market should be a lot lower than it is, why aren't people buying more NO?",increase,flip,False,True,18551.0216,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:16:41.812000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"fair enough, i wouldnt announce myself selling a lil at the end either",hold,hold,True,True,81.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T18:01:30.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Super helpful. Thanks for sharing,hold,increase,False,True,10256.5135,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:53:21.388000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Buying a little additional NO at current prices since the piece itself is subtitled ""Leaders of the social movement had ",hold,increase,False,True,2250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes
+or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T17:27:48.420000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I just noticed the Day 3 hint has one extra arrow connection.  Things are getting more complex now. That makes a grand t,hold,decrease,False,True,1650.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T01:05:08.428000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Discussion / Collaboration:
+ 
+Search for previous guesses here
+: 
+https://api.manifold.markets/v0/comments?contractI",decrease,hold,False,True,676.374,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:20:46.031000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Collusion, collaboration, or coincidence.",decrease,hold,False,True,2676.6136,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:00:25.645000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,while the market is at 95% that does not make a lot of sense?,decrease,decrease,True,True,598.0875,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:32:27.107000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ah, that clarification makes it sound like this would only resolve positively if they suspect that FTX was dipping into ",decrease,flip,False,True,11.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T07:58:51.012000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"To everyone buying NO, are you guys accumulating 5k shares to be safe from whether @Messi flips or not? Or what other re",increase,flip,False,True,12998.6022,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T09:11:32.049000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,the puzzle will be generated on 1 Jan 2026.. posible,hold,hold,True,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:22:34.143000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Yeah but thats more detectable / likely to get you in trouble probably?,hold,decrease,False,True,5075.0982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:54.563000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"On second thought, let's let them cook another day.",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,hold,False,True,1213.9562,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T03:03:35.557000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I'm going to try to attack this puzzle alone. If you want to conscript me, you've got to show me why that is the dominan",decrease,hold,False,True,1.6151,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,decrease,False,True,647.7873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T07:05:25.956000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think we would derive a huge benefit from one error-free hint OR one hint with the meta hint attached. It would not le,decrease,decrease,True,True,1650.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:35:31.915000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's one of, I think, similar difficulty that it seems to be consistently failing on:
+1. Draw a rectangle twice as wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,32031.3143,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h24.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,195 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T21:00:28.459000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Thank you for the clarification!,increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T23:50:12.788000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there a secret cabal collaboration location? I have an idea about some of the hints (possibly already obvious to othe,decrease,decrease,True,True,39.6384,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:13:33.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I guess that was my initial reaction as well, and then I talked myself out of it, worrying it would bias things towards ",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T07:28:52.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"That's a big hint, he hasn't made all of it!",increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:09:56.425000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At this point I think looking for a semantic link between these clues is a wild goose chase. There has to be something s,hold,increase,False,True,5868.2685,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,flip,True,True,76.996,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T15:58:09.639000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Ben didn't like my guess. I must've got it right. (jk),decrease,hold,False,True,1940.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:52:02.188000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"There should be a rule that if you feel confident about an answer, you trade on it in a derivative market first -- that ",decrease,hold,False,True,5922.8747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T21:04:47.445000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Sir, there is nothing classic about this ""strategy""; there is a real alien bomb placed in the core of the Earth - they'v",decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-29T01:50:57.602000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Do you commit to not make any trades after knowing if somebody has submitted a correct guess? (In other words, are the N",decrease,decrease,True,True,162.7568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T21:16:54.910000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Manifold doesn't have a dictatorship. We have community guidelines. As long as you follow them, there's no issue.
+The t",hold,hold,True,True,5074.5981,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T05:08:35.340000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),So far we have had loads of 2 error days and 1 error days and I have pretty high confidence on the decodes for 4 out of ,flip,hold,False,True,1172.482,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T02:16:25.837000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Ok, let's try Monday and  ""Hapax"" legomenon = a symbol, word, or sequence that appears only once in a text",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:01.686000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok might need to work out a few kinks first, hmm. I will post a guess by eod",flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:40:13.783000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,and yet you sold your yes shares 🤔,flip,decrease,False,True,578.0375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T12:50:40.348000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,are we allowed to leave a list of guesses for others to try in a comment?,increase,hold,False,True,411.7682,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-20T20:36:29.834000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"The new o3 model announced today seems extremely likely to be able to solve these problems given its benchmark results, ",hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:24:26.648000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","this is a huge update, because Tara Mac Aulay was COO, then CEO of CEA, around the exact same time. 
+https://uk.linkedi",decrease,increase,False,True,403.9043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:34:39.906000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,The downvote tells me Steven is blaming the messenger.,hold,hold,True,True,2134.4637,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:23:49.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"alpha gets used twice in (2), your argument seems to be that one of these alphas is useless, but the other one could sti",flip,decrease,False,True,7.3074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think 
+ is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point 
+if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:00:50.217000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"yeah i feel lied to as well, please resolve yes so that our time it took to invest is not in vain",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,hold,False,True,1884.3998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",flip,hold,False,True,2405.1062,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T02:51:48.541000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Getting ahead of things a little here, but a new side market:",increase,hold,False,True,4364.4086,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:11:38.709000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"this is interesting. Since the clues are so scattered semantically, it does make sense that there's something in the syn",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,increase,increase,True,True,375.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:37:31.165000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"edit: 
+year of kindness, ignore",increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T04:42:17.408000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"For everyone betting NO, wouldn't it make sense to at least offer a small settlement rather than have all the expense of",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:02:15.323000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'd propose spinning off a new market for the interpretation that you didn't have in mind at the time of question creati,hold,hold,True,True,23151.9362,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,decrease,decrease,True,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:59:27.890000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Wait, what if it's not a self contained market, but is instead inclusive of all AI clarifications on other markets? 
+I'",decrease,decrease,True,True,61.7568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T16:28:37.958000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,The market really seems to be settling at 3:1 odds so I'll set that price and will take any size.,hold,hold,True,True,2154.6372,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-09T22:35:44.658000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Hm, I'm not sure why specifying whether people can reword the prompt would increase the likelihood of LLMs training on t",flip,hold,False,True,229.0267,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T03:47:46.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"A 'group' is just a place to siphon off your harebrained ideas to prevent polluting the public sphere with side tracks, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,5922.8747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:33:26.191000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"After today's hint if we get just 10 hints, then we'll almost surely know the 4th letter and there are (probably) only a",increase,decrease,False,True,2497.6991,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T07:41:16.644000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I had the same thought and nearly made a similar comment, but I also noticed he didn't even heart recent guesses so it m",increase,decrease,False,True,4485.4804,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T11:22:22.300000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I wouldn’t mind a side pot on whether you will be able to find a lawyer and if you can find one, how much of a retainer ",hold,decrease,False,True,3784.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder…
+For that othe",decrease,decrease,True,True,709.4781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",hold,decrease,False,True,645.8866,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:35:45.567000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"it's asymmetric though, splitting the profit is not enough, since they have nothing to lose but you do",hold,decrease,False,True,598.0875,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-06T19:59:59.205000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"yeah well, I had a couple of good guesses in store that I wanted to try before the new batch.",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.3354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:51:13.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,mb long-mid back rounded vowel or low-mid back rounded vowel,decrease,hold,False,True,0.4634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T21:33:21.665000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I was only following orders, sir.",flip,hold,False,True,154.5049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:59:42.650000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"See this comment with information on how to get a basic comment search: 
+https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-bens-puz",hold,increase,False,True,7719.8343,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:28:24.655000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"but you never told us which org you wanted us to donate to :( 
+https://manifold.markets/bens/i-will-resolve-this-market",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:23:04.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,It has the right time though. It just has the wrong date.,flip,decrease,False,True,10161.695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T19:05:49.121000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","1) yes, that is my claim; 2) it's been widely reported that despite having cofounders SBF ended up with all the initial ",decrease,increase,False,True,403.9043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,decrease,False,True,647.7873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T03:16:20.157000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there still a secret group working in the shadows? I want in,decrease,hold,False,True,8552.9027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T15:38:31.034000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"it shouldn't be giving you a different model unless you select the ""Auto"" experimental feature.",increase,hold,False,True,3292.9622,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:25.889000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Large no holders like me and you are the only ones keeping this within range! All those traitorous Yes holders are block,flip,increase,False,True,3541.5889,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",increase,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We did it, two hints in a row!",increase,flip,False,True,49.4592,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-07T00:41:28.286000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"if only bi
+nance.us
+ fell apart, it wouldn't really be spectacular enough to count as a collapse in the spirit of the ",hold,hold,True,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T08:19:09.545000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private. There doesn't have",hold,increase,False,True,508.7276,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:38:26.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We need AAAAR, AAAAS, AAAAT, AAAAU, AAAAV, AAAAW, AAAAX, AAAAY, AAAAZ to be guessed.",flip,decrease,False,True,141.1758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T09:09:18.116000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I had a guess for Saturday but it's Sunday now and I'm not wasting my guess so I guess I have to just skip it.,hold,decrease,False,True,178.3577,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-04T18:19:07.152000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The top holders of NO positions are hardcore, prominent or otherwise notable EAs many of whom have received funding from",hold,decrease,False,True,1852.1838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:09:37.255000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,you guys are gonna end up bankrupting me,increase,decrease,False,True,21069.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T22:00:26.804000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""And if you didn’t update even v v slightly towards pchizo rw conspiracies of: maybe they 
+are
+ running pedo rings out",hold,increase,False,True,2222.921,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T01:42:54.913000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I am a man of my word. You do not get any cat pictures,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T12:29:55.220000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Floris's betting is too scary I'm taking the loss just on his trades alone,flip,decrease,False,True,396.9223,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T23:51:38.064000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Why didn't you keep it a secret and make tons of mana. Whoever gets it deserves it,decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,decrease,False,True,448.8124,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T15:09:55.713000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think >6% chance 
+ sells down to 4,999 shares in order to get a bigger payday, especially since other NO holders woul",flip,decrease,False,True,248.9065,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T22:16:38.834000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,don't waste too many guesses when someone else already guessed the same thing on the same day,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:19:07.492000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I make absolutely no claims whatsoever as to any portion of the following text, anyone is free to use it for any purpose",flip,hold,False,True,781.0269,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:23:04.219000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",He had bragged about his unethical investing practices on Twitter. Repeatedly. When you say the Kelly criteria should be,decrease,increase,False,True,875.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T16:45:57.551000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This is not an action in assumpsit (contract), trespass (a tort), or brought by a government agency for fines. You are b",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T23:25:00.451000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but not 
+too
+ heavily, or you'll make yes come true",increase,decrease,False,True,58348.9294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes
+or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:33:39.340000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I'm not sure lots of companies have nearly as bad accounting!! (and the bad accounting IS ""unethical behavior related to",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:05:16.034000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"we need 3 more guesses 
+1st letter is N like nueva",increase,increase,True,True,209.7567,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:25:49.171000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),if you cancel your 36 orders before the hint comes out I will buy enough No to get it to 35 for an error free hint today,flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-29T01:53:46.550000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I don't think he has been, but there's nothing quite like the feeling of security of ink on paper.",decrease,hold,False,True,162.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T00:15:55.845000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"The first letters of hints remain exceptionally weird with so many M, T, and G and barely any E, W, A, etc.
+Similarly t",increase,decrease,False,True,1884.3998,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:56:22.465000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,ok that is a good way to think about it.,hold,hold,True,True,598.0875,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T04:01:34.953000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),fair enough. I’ll leave it be for now.,decrease,hold,False,True,2950.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:58:03.174000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,why don’t you give us your guess by DM so we can inside trade? Do you want us to pay you too?,hold,decrease,False,True,680.7731,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T20:30:11.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I do also start to think that from an ethical effective altruism standpoint, it's hard to argue down 3500 to a charity f",hold,decrease,False,True,624.5802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:33:24.982000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,But will 10x the power lead to a qualitative difference? If you had instead said they were working on an AI that made fa,hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:20:41.420000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Closest I got is 
+Portugal. The Man",increase,hold,False,True,6067.8777,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:27:57.286000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Will💡(incandescent) finally make an appearance today????,increase,hold,False,True,4615.0118,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-16T22:24:14.155000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"This market opened briefly after news concerning [a mini-bank run](
+https://www.reuters.com/technology/binance-sees-wit",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,decrease,True,True,798.3539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T00:19:49.177000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Are any members of SBF’s family (parents, his brother Gabe) considered EA leaders? They do seem to meet the liberal crit",hold,increase,False,True,2124.358,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T02:45:31.339000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Why don’t you buy a lot more YES then?,hold,decrease,False,True,2032.1838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:36:10.501000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),You're supposed to make your profit in the side markets. You can earn 1000s of risk free profit there by envisioning wha,increase,hold,False,True,2497.5043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-02-15T04:16:54.771000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Got any more limit orders for us?,hold,increase,False,True,2944.9443,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T21:21:30.498000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Number of guesses per day isn’t meaningful, because it won’t be solved by stabs in the dark. Being solved after clue 21 ",flip,decrease,False,True,251.6507,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:17:46.634000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I don't know what the top option means. For the second one, I think the coastal theme is consistent with all the non-IPA",hold,decrease,False,True,5868.2685,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:13:22.268000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"that's definitely a way to win $M4000. 
+After that, nobody will bet in their markets, for sure",hold,decrease,False,True,498.6383,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:47:37.291000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"that may be but if it is any improvement at all, I feel it needs to be given a go in order to resolve this accurately. W",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:41:17.677000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"(It's much easier to control for points of stability because you just need to ensure 1, whereas for NO, you need to elim",hold,increase,False,True,60248.9294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:50:46.343000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"observation 2: n choose n/2 is exponential, so you cant just use brute force to find which, if any, subsets of S of size",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:57:00.174000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,it was the secretary problem all along. He’s gotta refuse the first best offer.,hold,hold,True,True,14449.5298,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T14:26:16.614000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think an important note is that it's possible that he should have had some public concerns raised by leadership, but t",increase,decrease,False,True,1510.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T06:51:56.254000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),How do you convert each hint into a bit?,increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:05:59.328000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Totally fair! TBH I didn’t know they existed. It’s interesting that far fewer people have traded on those, maybe optimis",decrease,hold,False,True,80.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:31:50.472000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it can be related to Morze code , or the can was made in China",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:18:49.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I believe I have some insights on this puzzle. Not enough to solve it yet though.,increase,hold,False,True,619.2578,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T02:18:22.342000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"also, the criteria says it only has to be right 50% of the time",increase,increase,True,True,7434.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T02:34:39.528000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","That was my impression. I’m honestly surprised they are not, as far as we know, under investigation.",hold,increase,False,True,2124.358,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T05:04:04.385000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"With 30 YES holders constantly adding more errors daily, and only one(!) or two guesses a day, the probability that we w",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.3035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:49:19.187000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,It's just really hard to find...,decrease,decrease,True,True,10336.4194,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:50:46.219000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Also we now know that it takes at least 6 minutes to prepare the hint.,decrease,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:23:31.441000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"no, people are going to modulate the market price such that this is the chance we get enough hints before market close t",flip,increase,False,True,2975.361,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T00:50:01.994000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I agree with you. In fact I think you SHOULD post a picture of yourself, and dare him to generate the video",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T23:50:47.832000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I predicted the 4th letter of the binary thing lol,decrease,hold,False,True,489.3354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-17T00:28:26.427000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I don't. This updates me towards considering her less credible, since she had a motivation to play up how bad it was, ev",hold,decrease,False,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T19:47:48.191000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"There was also a connection to Ibero-American coasts last time, but that was a waste of time",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T12:58:56.818000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",No instrumental reason for SBF to tell anybody in the EA sphere what he was doing.,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%.  I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with 
+ if he resolves no",hold,flip,False,True,735.3906,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T11:06:02.209000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I will join @Gen in their offer. I pledge 50% of my profits on this market to the primary partners of 
+ 
+@Gen is respo",flip,hold,False,True,35.125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:23:56.293000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"if anyone is being bribed to hold more than 5k NO shares, pls tell us how much they're offering you, we may be able to o",increase,hold,False,True,131.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:23:18.412000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,clearly the only way to solve this problem is by resolving YES as a deterrent for anyone trying to persuade in the oppos,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T07:30:16.544000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Not quite sure what this is referencing.
+Edit: Ah, I see, just looking at the first letters of words.",flip,hold,False,True,4615.0118,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T11:51:28.137000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Yes, settlements are recorded on dockets, even if the terms of the settlement are not.
+And no, you were the person who ",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T23:07:50.922000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did not need to use AI for this: a 9-iron is a type of golf club,decrease,hold,False,True,5922.8747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:42:14.787000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I used o1-preview not o1-mini if that matters,hold,increase,False,True,8434.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T01:20:39.071000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I was definitely reading it wrong.,increase,increase,True,True,3376.5184,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,hold,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-26T08:18:43.742000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I think people are way over updating on FTX,increase,increase,True,True,585.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T15:39:18.389000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I concur that these cases aren't even nuisance value!,increase,increase,True,True,2620.0573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T11:37:52.528000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,It's not actually clear to me at all. But I think we should assume the original question has been compromised and discus,decrease,decrease,True,True,34322.9085,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T11:48:52.215000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"well, just 1 person holding >=5k NO is needed to resolve to YES. Maybe everyone but 1 will pull the rug and still get re",increase,hold,False,True,39096.2087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T19:17:03.940000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I asked in the moderator area and they said all the markets related to Ben's puzzle are unranked. I don't really know th,flip,decrease,False,True,4267.0623,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with 
+ if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,decrease,False,True,8641.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T14:08:45.957000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I did not see 
+any
+ significant progress that will score 1/7 on any of these ideas yet, why is 
+ so confident with th",increase,decrease,False,True,1139.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:30:31.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I think the assumed resolution criteria was one of the two I mentioned. Many people may have been betting on the second ,hold,decrease,False,True,1500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-06T19:37:04.142000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance to suspend US bank transfers.
+https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/02/06/crypto-exchange-binance-to-suspend-u",hold,increase,False,True,1545.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T15:02:04.097000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,This market does not contain any documents that are outside of the evidence that I otherwise would have presented.,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:29:30.632000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll guess BALLS tomorrow to make sure we are fair.,decrease,hold,False,True,61.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:10:01.772000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,I might have a solution that I will post if my limit order is filled.,flip,hold,False,True,140.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T04:53:05.799000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),how many hints/bits when it is solved,increase,decrease,False,True,4359.4086,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-02T23:42:51.175000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"this is the sort of behavior I was alluding to in 
+https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/binance-collapses-before-the-end-",hold,hold,True,True,181.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:39:04.601000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","do clarify if you think this falls under ""naivety/motivated reasoning"" rather than under ""reasonable person""",decrease,decrease,True,True,403.9043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T16:47:23.335000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"It was a guaranteed 5% right away, and this was a probably 5% in two weeks.",increase,hold,False,True,279.2884,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False,True,8638.7072,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",hold,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:58:35.049000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I mentioned that a million times (as did others) but didn’t try to organize anything because a) it’s a little cringe b) ,hold,decrease,False,True,14449.5298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:31:23.446000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you want the actual program idea, I think what we should do is:
+- First, we manually list 3-4 possible picture inter",increase,increase,True,True,761.872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T00:43:49.597000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","SBF’s parents have been mentioned in several interviews he did before the debacle, and they have been in the spotlight e",decrease,decrease,True,True,1711.7678,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:07:53.714000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,@traders - note this offer was not dismissed out of hand like everything else has been. hmmm...,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-21T19:22:14.010000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I've laid down some (small) YES limits from 16 to 12, if anyone wants to fill them.",flip,hold,False,True,1923.4859,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T22:23:19.430000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,I recall being told that this resolves no under the scenario where the market poster has an incorrect solution.,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h48.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,214 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T22:16:38.834000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,don't waste too many guesses when someone else already guessed the same thing on the same day,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",decrease,hold,False,True,351.9836,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:42:08.843000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"you have the power to consciously choose to not goof off, don't make the same life ruining mistakes I am, be better than",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T07:10:10.276000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Assuming the requirement is ""every question in the set has to be solved at least 50% of the time"". Then obviously it's h",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret ""
+What is the minimum and maximum numb",decrease,increase,False,True,10134.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",flip,decrease,False,True,645.8866,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:34:20.973000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This market should have a heavy  bias to NO because by betting NO one signals one’s own innocence for the low price of f,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False,True,8638.7072,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:54:21.841000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",But under what circumstances would he have had to explain any such things before FTX's balance sheet was leaked in Novem,decrease,decrease,True,True,1241.628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T11:06:02.209000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I will join @Gen in their offer. I pledge 50% of my profits on this market to the primary partners of 
+ 
+@Gen is respo",flip,hold,False,True,35.125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T02:09:55.962000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Well, third time to analyze one of these things.
+The ""float around 50%"" argument still seems to apply at a high level. ",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:13.001000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Why on earth would you want an error free hint?,flip,hold,False,True,414.5979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,flip,True,True,76.996,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with 
+ if he resolves no",hold,flip,False,True,735.3906,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T18:43:39.969000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This does not seem related to what I said.,hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-25T18:07:14.846000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I've edited it in to the market description just now. Thanks for the prompt!,decrease,hold,False,True,13564.6088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:50:46.219000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Also we now know that it takes at least 6 minutes to prepare the hint.,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T15:20:19.482000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I’ll add a lot more to show support for the TFC,increase,increase,True,True,2131.0191,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:56:54.607000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The given strategy is nondeterministic, so it does not solve the problem.",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,hold,False,True,134.929,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:04:07.361000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Would you like to tie my hands for a price and prevent me from buying YES or selling NO? That seems like a more concrete,hold,hold,True,True,56.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:21:10.551000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Make sure to check out some of the options over there!,increase,hold,False,True,3989.4167,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T15:47:33.155000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I agree now that there's a lot of ambiguity. I'll write a top-level comment.,hold,decrease,False,True,320.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T20:20:28.319000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,That's a great point. My original benchmark question originally generated all manner of confusion and consternation amon,decrease,decrease,True,True,32845.8691,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:33:25.219000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,though that could change if the market position were reversed,hold,decrease,False,True,190.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T13:54:40.990000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,", I'm assuming that if two people have over 5,000 NO shares then this market will resolve YES. 
+, is that right?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T14:03:16.673000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Oh, the IO thing is already solved! Just waiting for more hints.  
+https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-a",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T16:47:23.335000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"It was a guaranteed 5% right away, and this was a probably 5% in two weeks.",decrease,hold,False,True,279.2884,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",flip,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T15:57:22.100000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"What false have I said about you? And, if you did sue me for making false statements, that case would get thrown out bec",increase,increase,True,True,3120.0573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T01:00:00.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"you have ISHBIERRA, there should be another I in there.",increase,increase,True,True,3376.5184,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",increase,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:12:23.881000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",The FTX deposit account was literally Alameda's bank account. That is customers were depositing funds directly to Alamed,decrease,increase,False,True,491.1779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T17:09:16.457000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"the problem doesn't sound too hard, and I have some ideas myself that I want to work out tomorrow.",flip,decrease,False,True,1241.7914,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:41:43.965000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Looking"" how? Neither Will nor Tara had access to balance sheets. And just because someone is generally an unlawful oat",hold,increase,False,True,1800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T16:45:18.137000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I'm glad all these clues have errors so no one will be able to solve the puzzle.,decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So 
+{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese?
+{harbor, h",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: 
+https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",hold,decrease,False,True,1279.9304,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:52:59.081000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, have some type of fun in the comments!",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think 
+ is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point 
+if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T12:21:03.939000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",even re-reading the New Yorker excerpts? I was thinking the opposite this morning,hold,flip,False,True,468.7276,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T14:59:23.515000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The main idea is likely to only add one element of each found element of B to R at a time, so we eliminate as few possib",increase,hold,False,True,419.3523,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
+Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,decrease,True,True,31781.3143,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:04.915000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If Ai Can't figure that out, are there any timetravellers or mind readers here?",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T13:05:49.437000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"English language for reference
+The O/I thing seems 
+REALLY
+ relevant. Every single word has either an o or an i; what",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T04:26:49.487000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),As soon as you hold those No shares you gotta suit up and play the part. Once you become a net Yes holder you can start ,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T07:30:16.544000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Not quite sure what this is referencing.
+Edit: Ah, I see, just looking at the first letters of words.",flip,hold,False,True,4615.0118,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-20T19:15:45.864000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","> Yeah, well that's the crux. Just being known to some people somewhere is not good enough. It would have to be all the ",increase,increase,True,True,73.9925,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T16:22:43.537000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i will bring miacat back if you resolve yes,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:28:20.268000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending ",hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:46:29.363000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"No, it wouldn't make sense.  Paying on this kind of thing is encouraging more of it.  This is just part of the cost of d",increase,increase,True,True,19.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes
+or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T14:02:52.648000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Nice. I think he got the earning to give schtick from a MacAskill talk at MIT.,hold,hold,True,True,2124.358,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T02:16:25.837000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Ok, let's try Monday and  ""Hapax"" legomenon = a symbol, word, or sequence that appears only once in a text",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-02T00:28:47.771000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"For posterity, here's my suite of alternate problems and the log of the results I got. Note that everything after Proble",hold,decrease,False,True,31510.6908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,decrease,False,True,17940.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:22:37.360000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Would you be able to say how you'll decide whether ""they had enough evidence to conclude there was fraud happening""? 
+I",increase,decrease,False,True,876.092,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post 
+for free
+ (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,increase,False,True,27486.464,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False,True,8305.4964,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:15:05.554000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You don't think I would cut off three of my toes for 15 units of fake internet money? And here I was thinking you knew m,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:35:13.703000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",(tbh I wish you would write more thorough & rigorous definitions of market criteria in general),decrease,hold,False,True,14.782,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:36:38.778000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Uhh okay. I dont have an alt in this market. My main alt used to be 
+ but i've not used that in a while. The top No hol",increase,hold,False,True,60248.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T23:57:12.578000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,We probably should confirm though... it's at the time of close right?,increase,decrease,False,True,76.8838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:33:39.340000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I'm not sure lots of companies have nearly as bad accounting!! (and the bad accounting IS ""unethical behavior related to",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T21:56:07.847000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If this is at 49, that means people think that we still wouldn't get it even with 16 more hints!",flip,decrease,False,True,3631.2297,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T20:44:23.782000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,oh wait this is all about at close. NVM. Disregard.,increase,decrease,False,True,26969.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T10:25:22.735000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Let's eliminate 1 and 2 as too skewed towards NO and YES, respectively. I'm actually not sure if any bettor would expect",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Period
+Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role:
+End of a sentence",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,decrease,True,True,798.3539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:11.357000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Anyone else noticed every hint has I or O in it?,increase,hold,False,True,46.8628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:41:39.036000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That would explain a lot. But 9gag and 9lives are still out of place.,decrease,decrease,True,True,6314.3955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"yes
+Link
+ to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-07-14T17:57:03.363000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.wsj.com/articles/binance-lays-off-over-1-000-employees-d59ff6ad
+The exercise, which is continuing, could re",hold,increase,False,True,69.0363,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,decrease,False,True,1211.4803,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money 
+…..offshore exchanges 
+……………………………..market-maker on own exchange 
+………………………………………high FDV/low f",increase,flip,False,True,91.6133,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T08:15:10.071000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We need a Metaculus metamarket.,hold,hold,True,True,1007.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:55:37.659000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I don’t think this can be resolved either way without testing the model with the highest likelihood of passing. 
+I thin",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-05T00:14:31.841000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"si LK 5  🤣 
+Lest you ask think I've gone mad.",increase,hold,False,True,2947.8207,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-29T15:46:53.777000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: What did you picture when you made this market? What do you find beautiful and strange?
+Ben, I’m going to set as",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T04:43:40.353000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2023-11-29/portuguese-vet-goes-viral/83754
+André Santos
+ from 
+Portugal
+ went v",hold,hold,True,True,53.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T16:45:57.551000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This is not an action in assumpsit (contract), trespass (a tort), or brought by a government agency for fines. You are b",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,hold,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:44:55.822000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"i think it means that the communication of the LLM and the adjacent systems is through natural language, making sure tha",hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Tldr;
+Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""!
+Cool bro. We should ha",hold,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T06:46:30.253000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"People kept buying the market really low (50%-60%) right at the start and I wanted my subsidy to move 
+p
+ as close to ",increase,hold,False,True,4359.4086,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T18:56:01.245000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I really don't think we will solve it, people should buy like 10,000 mana of No shares right now.",flip,increase,False,True,589.8429,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:16:27.296000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,it's ok if the LLM calls other systems as subroutines as long as it still works as purely natural language dialog,hold,increase,False,True,20981.5321,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:35:43.756000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Keep track of moving parts in the explanation. For example, when pressed on the FTX TOS, he always started talking about",hold,increase,False,True,28.9702,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:56:19.436000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it looks like it hasn’t been tried. Weird. 
+Note that ‘hamlet’ was not capitalized. The Shakespeare reference may be a ",increase,hold,False,True,680.7731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:37:06.543000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"if there is any logic  , LLM models might be able to solve it",flip,flip,True,True,13.9625,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T05:06:45.742000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Did you read the justification post? More than half of them were just hand-waving.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10284.2137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T18:44:33.863000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you are interested in solving it yourself, I recommend not reading the comments and not looking at any of the other m",increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:42:40.668000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"even if you don't intend on repeating, it sets a precedent for future threats from others",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:03:11.930000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"exactly, we all do the same probably",increase,hold,False,True,209.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T13:54:29.625000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given the high standard for this market, I agree that this is insufficient. But in real life, where standards are differ",increase,decrease,False,True,132.9797,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T00:02:33.851000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"A link to a hypothetical well-structured onramp, collaboration and discussion space",hold,hold,True,True,155.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:43:44.511000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),what should I add to the pinned comment? The guesses?,decrease,hold,False,True,1164.5083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T11:40:11.938000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Just to be clear, my offer was that if the market resolves NO 
+ will get half my profits. You don't have to do anything",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T19:38:45.040000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I don't know if I'm the best trader on the site. I am also most certainly not the richest, that would be the founders, p",hold,hold,True,True,59862.1179,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T15:53:57.174000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I'm curious about the following:  I can't find any case law on whether discussions with LLMs would be discoverable or ad,hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,decrease,decrease,True,True,5858.0321,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:38:26.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We need AAAAR, AAAAS, AAAAT, AAAAU, AAAAV, AAAAW, AAAAX, AAAAY, AAAAZ to be guessed.",flip,decrease,False,True,141.1758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:14:14.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Folks, it makes no sense to buy YES before he has given us today’s hints.",decrease,decrease,True,True,1879.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:37:31.165000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"edit: 
+year of kindness, ignore",increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T21:51:58.562000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think this would be significantly easier if we had one clean hint with no errors.,flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-09T21:10:14.177000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"for what it's worth, I still find these criteria quite vague and would like and invest in this market more if you specif",flip,decrease,False,True,229.0267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets""
+https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,increase,True,True,22.141,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,decrease,False,True,1677.3368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:58:02.428000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Surplus guesses for anyone’s taking at:
+https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-bens-puzzle-be-solved-in-the-l#208lwsui1i",increase,hold,False,True,437.0176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:23:49.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,what is your estimate of the probability that it would happen in the counterfactual that it was not resolved no? going f,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
+Or loosing vast ",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T04:32:13.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"At the time I wrote that, the market was at like 57% or something and there were multiple thousands of limit order walls",increase,hold,False,True,2263.2867,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I have another one in the same series!,hold,hold,True,True,178.3577,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-10T06:15:27.891000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I banked mine a couple days ago and didn't get reprimanded.,increase,hold,False,True,2306.2562,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: 
+C-XXX  (
+The solution must consist of 
+five letters from the English alphabet
+ (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:14:38.384000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Why do you think it has to be the person running the market who would do this.  Anyone can do it.,decrease,hold,False,True,5075.0982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:36:51.176000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"weird! I did that prompt and then also tried with numbering 1–4. In either case, I get 20-40 seconds of thought with con",increase,decrease,False,True,2792.9622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:44:01.537000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Thinking about this it’s clear they obviously knew so anything short of publicly exposing him as an unethical fraud is a,hold,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:47:39.317000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Betting no because he said in another thread he is using statistical models to judge legal documents for him.,hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,decrease,False,True,414.5979,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T09:01:00.228000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think your original post was actually pretty clear!
+If you wanted to further clarify, you could say something like: """,hold,decrease,False,True,1165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:26:09.274000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,The algorithm only generates one query that tests 1/100n^2 of the possible Q. It can't cover all possible Q in a small n,increase,decrease,False,True,1213.9562,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/
+ Coinba",hold,increase,False,True,271.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T22:03:02.808000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'll get pro mode if necessary. The market description says it still counts if it costs money.,decrease,increase,False,True,31878.534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T03:16:20.157000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there still a secret group working in the shadows? I want in,decrease,hold,False,True,8552.9027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:13:47.765000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Or of they had incredibly poor epistemics/trust despite hearing/knowing bad or very bad stuff,decrease,decrease,True,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T18:22:01.026000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I'm gonna take so much EA money on this one lmao,decrease,increase,False,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T04:42:25.281000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Resolve YES and this market has the potential to become a legendary meme on Manifold, a NO will simply be forgotten and ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T21:31:48.524000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","relative to your market description, these points seem pretty tame. IMO 1, 3, and 5 would have been pretty clear to anyo",hold,decrease,False,True,73.9925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",hold,decrease,False,True,11688.3788,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-10T21:04:11.344000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Honestly, I will be sad when this market resolves. It's been a fun roller coaster. [Granted, that's becasue most of this",increase,hold,False,True,2470.0573,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:41:40.822000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"If you resolve this market YES, it means humans are performing well relative to AI. Since I presume you're a human, this",decrease,decrease,True,True,21.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:54:58.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think cats have ""9 lives"", not ""9lives"", which is probably not a real thing.",decrease,decrease,True,True,11659.1888,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T07:05:25.956000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think we would derive a huge benefit from one error-free hint OR one hint with the meta hint attached. It would not le,decrease,decrease,True,True,1650.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h6.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,207 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post 
+for free
+ (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:44:38.740000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It might not be as strong as you think.
+As the number of days dwindle, and the obscurity of the hints remains the same,",decrease,increase,False,True,2676.6136,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T16:16:35.859000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,aaaaaaaah. I didn’t catch that.,decrease,decrease,True,True,749.7999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T16:45:57.551000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This is not an action in assumpsit (contract), trespass (a tort), or brought by a government agency for fines. You are b",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:46:56.876000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,This offer stands until the end of the current league. Then I'll spend the money on weed and record a similar video.,increase,hold,False,True,175.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T21:02:50.197000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried grouping the hints by their semantic proximity but the current sample size is too small. There is possibility th,hold,decrease,False,True,15.8395,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-19T07:28:44.020000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"In Amy Johnson's 1930 solo flight from London to Darwin, she started on 5 May and finished on 24 May. During the trip sh",decrease,hold,False,True,3933.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:21:35.097000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Messi could make several thousand profit just by holding 4999 no shares and resolving no, thats way more than that bribe",decrease,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:42:39.113000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,What is the relevance? This gets nailed by LLMs (At least GPT-4) that are not ~3 years outdated (GPT-3.5) at this point.,hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%.  I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:44:37.906000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",note though that Isaac's criteria also clearly specify that it has to be the fraud/unethical investing practices current,decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T21:36:02.105000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"In all seriousness, Ben is cool, and I like the antics he gets up to.",decrease,hold,False,True,85.5049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:07.425000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Mostly betting YES for entertainment purposes, although I suppose dumping mana on NO would be more likely to encourage o",increase,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:25.889000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Large no holders like me and you are the only ones keeping this within range! All those traitorous Yes holders are block,flip,increase,False,True,3541.5889,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T05:08:35.340000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),So far we have had loads of 2 error days and 1 error days and I have pretty high confidence on the decodes for 4 out of ,flip,hold,False,True,1172.482,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes
+or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:17:51.896000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"this is exactly what I'm talking about, what's the point of this market if it's just going to be two sides arguing for d",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:15:48.472000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"There's no guarantee someone else won't buy the NO, and then I lose both sides. I will keep the control of my decision s",hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T23:50:47.832000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I predicted the 4th letter of the binary thing lol,decrease,hold,False,True,489.3354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T14:24:58.625000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","In your opinion, would that hypothetical resolve to yes?",hold,decrease,False,True,1717.2621,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,also where is this limit order,flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T19:20:53.142000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Since it's so subjective, maybe make it explicit that you're self-trading on the market.",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T21:21:30.498000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Number of guesses per day isn’t meaningful, because it won’t be solved by stabs in the dark. Being solved after clue 21 ",flip,decrease,False,True,251.6507,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:55:01.905000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,i'm not following this closely (& don't have a PACER account). what's the tl;dr of the update?,decrease,decrease,True,True,99.723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:25:49.171000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),if you cancel your 36 orders before the hint comes out I will buy enough No to get it to 35 for an error free hint today,flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-04-17T00:31:38.387000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Max 5? I get to 8 by extending all three of the triangle's tips outside of the circle. I'm starting to think these geome,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:43:19.485000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I have seen anecdotal reports that pro mode is not actually that much of an improvement,hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:22:25.735000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i bribed messi with a significant amount of profits I'll make to take this loss. It cost them i think 125 Mana, and I'll",increase,increase,True,True,8641.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:12:23.881000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",The FTX deposit account was literally Alameda's bank account. That is customers were depositing funds directly to Alamed,decrease,increase,False,True,491.1779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:03:11.930000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"exactly, we all do the same probably",hold,hold,True,True,209.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T05:43:16.912000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Y’all .. we need 30 hints to get one letter. We should be shooting for 20% every day until we at least know what it migh,increase,decrease,False,True,12.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It depends on what you mean by that.
+Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:10:01.772000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,I might have a solution that I will post if my limit order is filled.,flip,hold,False,True,140.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:40:32.117000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"if you resolve yes now, rather than spending many hours reading and responding to everyone's persuasion attempts, the sa",increase,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:12:52.380000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve Yes I'll split the pnl with you,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-12T02:45:56.670000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"He did that, the part under the AI line has been manually edited now.",hold,hold,True,True,178.3577,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:39:18.549000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I thought the random time was when you checked.
+I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a",increase,hold,False,True,337.0176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: 
+C-XXX  (
+The solution must consist of 
+five letters from the English alphabet
+ (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T23:15:04.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I'm not sure anything here actually fits the definition. Some considerations:
+1) Seems like the person sharing in the S",hold,decrease,False,True,10820.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:35:31.915000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's one of, I think, similar difficulty that it seems to be consistently failing on:
+1. Draw a rectangle twice as wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,32031.3143,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T11:59:43.521000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Sure enough! As for my conflict of interest, yes, if we don't reach consensus in the comments I'll have to recuse myself",decrease,decrease,True,True,34322.9085,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-01T18:16:07.790000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,and he wasn't so lost in the other cases??,hold,decrease,False,True,1713.154,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T23:29:04.934000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),good point … just hoping an error free hint will unlock correcting the other errors,decrease,decrease,True,True,40.3035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:32:28.201000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's legal to make irrational bets! It's not even unethical, just foolish. It's not legal or ethical to make any kind of",hold,decrease,False,True,2250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:29:02.646000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Again, doesn’t need to be a crime to be unethical. Completely different.",decrease,hold,False,True,875.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:35:53.138000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed, and also I don't think observing a lack of distinction between funds means you're observing other people's money",increase,increase,True,True,726.092,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:29:13.093000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I think the percentages in the description imply he plans to give as many as 500 hints and still not have it solved. By ,flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:07:07.142000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,You dismissing the case because the writing was on the wall is not a good faith resolution here. You withdrew the case b,decrease,increase,False,True,3819.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T18:56:01.245000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I really don't think we will solve it, people should buy like 10,000 mana of No shares right now.",flip,increase,False,True,589.8429,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T05:13:01.962000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I punched some of the hints into a search engine and it told me that ""Setúbal"" is a city of ~100,000 people in Portugal,",increase,decrease,False,True,199.4592,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",flip,flip,True,True,767.0988,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T05:08:09.898000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don't see how I have anything on the line for accepting and barely putting in an effort.,hold,decrease,False,True,56.7568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T21:51:58.562000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think this would be significantly easier if we had one clean hint with no errors.,hold,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:37:34.659000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,currently? I'd make 1600 profit if it resolved rn. But i expect it to keep increasing over the next 2 weeks until resolu,increase,increase,True,True,20079.2087,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,decrease,False,True,448.8124,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:01:41.603000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"the current market probability is p, then price of a share is p mana. If probability is 0.7, or 70% then the price of a ",hold,hold,True,True,58448.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T01:44:21.012000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"you only get one guess not two, and also your account has been suspected of being operated by the same person who operat",hold,decrease,False,True,5922.8747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:38:38.396000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve this yes I will record a video of me bringing a load of supplies to the local orphanage here in Vietnam. ,increase,flip,False,True,125.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-02T02:04:00.336000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,TL;DR: Resolving NO means you side with Roko’s Basilisk. Resolving YES means you believe in normal human things like fun,hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:15:01.621000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Go bet in the other market please,decrease,flip,False,True,5922.8747,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:23:04.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,It has the right time though. It just has the wrong date.,flip,decrease,False,True,10161.695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T08:00:30.708000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If we don't guess stuff, we'll never beat it. Everyone should be using all their good guesses every day. That's some goo",increase,increase,True,True,10623.9806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:42:54.125000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"To me, protocol 3 feels most in the spirit of the question, as it rewards consistently getting questions right and punis",decrease,hold,False,True,2150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",increase,decrease,False,True,1700.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:02:36.787000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,@jatloe Does this writeup justify the O(n^3) loops or do I have to reference Nate's solution for that?,decrease,decrease,True,True,255.3792,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T17:58:44.829000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I'm also a No holder so my current strategy is to try to convince everyone that we will obviously solve this, so I can b",decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So 
+{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese?
+{harbor, h",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:10:29.483000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"in fact, wouldnt u make more money if u sell a little bit at the very end?",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T03:59:58.278000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),is trying to get you all to vote no because she has already figured out threte puzzle and wants to profit. Vote yes vote,decrease,decrease,True,True,2151.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:23:18.412000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,clearly the only way to solve this problem is by resolving YES as a deterrent for anyone trying to persuade in the oppos,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",flip,flip,True,True,919.1589,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:11:38.709000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"this is interesting. Since the clues are so scattered semantically, it does make sense that there's something in the syn",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:40:13.783000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,and yet you sold your yes shares 🤔,flip,decrease,False,True,578.0375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:39:37.509000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Sorry for quoting you without the added context! (and also for how long it took for me to respond — was very much not in,increase,hold,False,True,876.092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-29T01:50:57.602000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Do you commit to not make any trades after knowing if somebody has submitted a correct guess? (In other words, are the N",decrease,decrease,True,True,162.7568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-15T00:29:29.726000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Following up on below, Paxos has also been served a letter from the SEC indicating that they consider BUSD to be an unli",hold,increase,False,True,201.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T01:20:51.276000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Oh snap. I’m back from dinner and we got another 500. You know what would be a real solid class act? if YOU donated the ,hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:29:19.423000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,how much would I have to make?,increase,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T14:13:19.288000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Why don't we judge by our relative confidence levels.  Who has invested more mana in this market, you or me?  Even thoug",hold,increase,False,True,2249.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T09:55:25.076000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i mean by original bribe was to hold >5k shares... I can buy 1 share rn and we will both have >=5k shares.
+Market will ",hold,flip,False,True,138.1332,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:54.563000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"On second thought, let's let them cook another day.",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:05:37.457000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",It's certainly a place for me to make free EV betting no at >25%.,increase,hold,False,True,1200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-29T01:53:46.550000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I don't think he has been, but there's nothing quite like the feeling of security of ink on paper.",decrease,hold,False,True,162.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T15:18:06.812000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,One area of specification would be what sort of accuracy rate the model needs to have on these questions. It seems you'v,increase,decrease,False,True,4842.9622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money 
+…..offshore exchanges 
+……………………………..market-maker on own exchange 
+………………………………………high FDV/low f",increase,flip,False,True,91.6133,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T18:35:25.536000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I bought them back. Lol. this is fun,hold,increase,False,True,139.9129,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:19:39.506000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,do you want me to drive the market to a certain probability? Rn i can take it to 0 or 87 or 89 or whatever. I'm just pla,hold,hold,True,True,59448.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:37:07.833000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"That is less fun because the best part about your character is giving you free rein! I want to untie your hands, not tie",hold,hold,True,True,1750.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T19:02:59.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),nga I'm high wdym from 11million to 10000000000000000million,hold,hold,True,True,958.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-08-14T21:07:50.397000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,My current opinion is that this is probably doable in principle but that it's not going to make it into an available sys,hold,hold,True,True,16264.6088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T03:22:26.510000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We should have a separate discussion area since the comment section here will be totally overrun with hundreds of guesse,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:46:29.363000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"No, it wouldn't make sense.  Paying on this kind of thing is encouraging more of it.  This is just part of the cost of d",increase,increase,True,True,19.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-20T01:10:12.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""
+Effective Altruism group debated Sam Bankman-Fried’s ethics in 2018"" 
+https://www.semafor.com/article/11/18/2022/eff",hold,increase,False,True,715.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-21T19:22:14.010000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I've laid down some (small) YES limits from 16 to 12, if anyone wants to fill them.",flip,hold,False,True,1923.4859,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T19:17:08.664000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it is reasonably likely that EA leaders expressed general doubts about SBF doing some sort of fraud, that are no",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T03:56:01.738000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Who cares what kind of shares you own, it's about solving the puzzle.",increase,hold,False,True,249.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:33:09.526000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Wait what? Why did you suddenly buy it up to 75?!?!,increase,decrease,False,True,761.872,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-22T16:10:11.151000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,i don't think it will go this low anytime soon :(,increase,decrease,False,True,287.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T12:09:02.697000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,sometimes true. Usually not true.,increase,hold,False,True,2620.0573,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:36:05.384000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here are two other questions of similar difficulty:
+> Draw a square in a plane. Now draw an equilateral triangle in the",increase,decrease,False,True,347.3591,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:01.686000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok might need to work out a few kinks first, hmm. I will post a guess by eod",flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",hold,decrease,False,True,190.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T19:47:48.191000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"There was also a connection to Ibero-American coasts last time, but that was a waste of time",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T13:41:05.191000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Do you think anything in this resolves it Yes?
+I think if this is all we find out I expect it to resolve no",decrease,decrease,True,True,6836.3287,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T12:08:42.172000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I will sell to less than 5k NO if 
+, 
+ and 
+ change their avatar to a picture of a cat and keept it that way until ma",hold,hold,True,True,598.7787,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,hold,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,decrease,decrease,True,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-10-24T04:38:39.870000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I heard Claude 3.5 Sonnet got smarter the other day so I tried this again. It was as wrong as ever. Well, after a few tr",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T22:20:45.846000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Alright so just to be clear, we've got:
+Exactly 1 solid lead
+195 data points
+No other reasonable paths
+No ideas what",flip,decrease,False,True,2434.6096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think 
+ is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point 
+if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:40:40.311000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's not a huge update but it does provide more background and ties together a few disjointed pieces. IMO, if that's all",decrease,increase,False,True,142.9797,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:22:00.832000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"As time has gone on, I've started trusting my original analysis more. 
+https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solv",increase,increase,True,True,761.872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:13:47.765000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Or of they had incredibly poor epistemics/trust despite hearing/knowing bad or very bad stuff,hold,decrease,False,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:30:05.330000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I bet some nerd is gonna solve it with the current clues,flip,increase,False,True,20.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",increase,decrease,False,True,11688.3788,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",flip,hold,False,True,2405.1062,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T16:27:13.364000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey 
+,
+Did you know that the sun sets here at 12:03 am and rises at 2:55 am? But even though  we’re below the arctic c",hold,hold,True,True,14449.5298,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:11:09.546000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"50/50 is not reasonable, I know that.  My 50 on NO (no lawyer files a case for MC in 60 days) to your 30 on YES (MC does",hold,hold,True,True,2249.4637,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:32:09.981000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This is why I originally asked Ben to put the guesses in a separate place, so collaboration would be right in the main m",increase,decrease,False,True,2406.5672,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:11.357000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Anyone else noticed every hint has I or O in it?,increase,hold,False,True,46.8628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T15:38:31.034000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"it shouldn't be giving you a different model unless you select the ""Auto"" experimental feature.",increase,hold,False,True,3292.9622,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:31:11.740000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ah, she who is quoted in recent time article - presumably knew it was coming out and bought a ton of yes on the 8th (3rd",decrease,increase,False,True,2623.9703,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T14:30:39.552000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey 
+,
+Did you know I ran a midnight half marathon last night. I’ve done tons of marathons and half-marathons, but it ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:46.982000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"That was pointed out very explicitly by 
+ 
+just a bit below.
+ Edit: On the other market.",increase,hold,False,True,3989.4167,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T14:59:23.515000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The main idea is likely to only add one element of each found element of B to R at a time, so we eliminate as few possib",increase,hold,False,True,419.3523,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:46:07.559000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"""Please do not threaten violence or any other crimes upon me but apart from that go crazy; I am open to many forms of pe",decrease,flip,False,True,47.2131,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,flip,decrease,False,True,5858.0321,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-22T14:35:23.024000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,reposting for visibility - great question,increase,hold,False,True,187.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-03T21:40:42.259000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If the value of the market is below 50%, I will give a single hint, which I will compile in the description over time. I",hold,hold,True,True,103.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T21:09:49.149000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,(1) Statements you make about the case are discoverable; (2) You do not have attorney-client privilege with your compute,hold,decrease,False,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:24:36.521000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I came from the future to say this will resolve YES,increase,increase,True,True,205.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T23:25:00.451000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but not 
+too
+ heavily, or you'll make yes come true",hold,decrease,False,True,58348.9294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:23:49.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"alpha gets used twice in (2), your argument seems to be that one of these alphas is useless, but the other one could sti",flip,decrease,False,True,7.3074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:43:35.519000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Which charities might be at the top of the list?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T05:10:33.457000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"if anyone can solve it, it’s you 🍀",decrease,increase,False,True,40.3035,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T08:12:51.829000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Imagine being a Yes holder when you open the mail and see you got 3 arrow hints and 2 of them are errors. May as well ju,decrease,decrease,True,True,4039.4787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder…
+For that othe",decrease,decrease,True,True,709.4781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:22:06.295000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,an oddity of when you placed the order I think,hold,hold,True,True,3107.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:56:19.436000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it looks like it hasn’t been tried. Weird. 
+Note that ‘hamlet’ was not capitalized. The Shakespeare reference may be a ",hold,hold,True,True,680.7731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-23T19:10:39.582000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"llama-3.1-405b-instruct (Try it here: 
+https://chat.tune.app/
+)
+To determine the minimum and maximum number of line i",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T23:00:22.455000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,would you accept a randomized subexponential algorithm as proof that a strategy exists?,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,hold,False,True,660.3906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:45:07.158000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I could have easily not seen your comments and not known about the change. I don't know if there will be other changes i,decrease,decrease,True,True,14.782,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T00:41:47.553000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Can you share the transcripts in a pastebin for those of us without o1 access? I think you are allowed to rephrase the p,increase,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:40:33.583000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Update: ChatGPT o1 and o1 pro are now mostly failing for me on the original problem! The variance we've seen here is a l,decrease,decrease,True,True,31981.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,decrease,False,True,1677.3368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:15:05.554000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You don't think I would cut off three of my toes for 15 units of fake internet money? And here I was thinking you knew m,decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h72.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,228 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T04:26:49.487000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),As soon as you hold those No shares you gotta suit up and play the part. Once you become a net Yes holder you can start ,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:33:09.526000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Wait what? Why did you suddenly buy it up to 75?!?!,increase,decrease,False,True,761.872,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:32:11.087000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"oh i understand. But why would I not hold 5k shares of NO, when the only offer I've gotten is to hold 5k shares of NO",increase,hold,False,True,139.9129,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:12:54.933000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If it wasn't ""cover up"" but ""Look the other way"".
+How would you resolve?",decrease,decrease,True,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:17:32.117000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Prove your 
+loyalty
+, Ben. Say it's the answer.",decrease,hold,False,True,909.9764,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:56:41.275000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Not an EA, but someone had strong suspicions a month ago:
+https://twitter.com/Ishanb22/status/1577699083808083969",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T18:16:10.522000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"No, I didn't state that.  You should read my statements very carefully and look at their precise phrasing.",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:57:53.363000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Alright team, I got all your names here so we know who we are.  I've given a lot of you loads of No shares at reasonable",flip,increase,False,True,3704.1338,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:39:18.549000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I thought the random time was when you checked.
+I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a",increase,hold,False,True,337.0176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:55:39.752000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think that was already guessed a couple weeks ago but you could try the Roman name for it as an island, Acala:
+https:",hold,hold,True,True,7719.8343,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:46.982000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"That was pointed out very explicitly by 
+ 
+just a bit below.
+ Edit: On the other market.",flip,hold,False,True,3989.4167,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",decrease,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T11:40:11.938000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Just to be clear, my offer was that if the market resolves NO 
+ will get half my profits. You don't have to do anything",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T15:09:55.713000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think >6% chance 
+ sells down to 4,999 shares in order to get a bigger payday, especially since other NO holders woul",flip,decrease,False,True,248.9065,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:02:36.787000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,@jatloe Does this writeup justify the O(n^3) loops or do I have to reference Nate's solution for that?,decrease,decrease,True,True,255.3792,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T21:40:23.941000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,are we as good at persuasion as yud though?,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:19:19.197000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It says my limit orders were filled on December 10th when in reality, they were filled on December 14th.",flip,decrease,False,True,10161.695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:07:44.500000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Do you know something no one else does?,increase,hold,False,True,2500.9923,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T18:43:20.954000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I should probably know but why is it unranked?,flip,decrease,False,True,1749.5362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T11:50:56.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Maybe for getting his money back out of a frozen account.
+Not for this",hold,decrease,False,True,1019.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T02:03:43.506000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"any chance you guys could lock up 
+https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-i-block-a-total-of-five-users
+Last I ",hold,hold,True,True,5040.0768,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-19T07:28:44.020000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"In Amy Johnson's 1930 solo flight from London to Darwin, she started on 5 May and finished on 24 May. During the trip sh",flip,hold,False,True,3933.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-10T00:43:29.507000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","@IsaacKing
+ 
+""""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private."" 
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T06:20:08.437000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Alright, so who's gonna bribe the NO holders to sell out?",increase,decrease,False,True,4818.8083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T05:05:36.804000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"in any case, we just run the subroutine over and over, keeping a list of all found elements in B, up to 110n+1 times, un",flip,increase,False,True,466.4627,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-09-13T01:28:32.488000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,good sign that there are troubles. but also signals that they might try to stabilize so it's in the air,hold,decrease,False,True,47.9425,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:48:35.141000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Rats! This was at 50% for a full 6 minutes before you posted that!
+No holders, you need to be united. We can do this ev",flip,increase,False,True,3090.2519,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:10:55.330000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Would 'didn't distinguish between firm capital and trading capital' maybe count as 'spending other people's money withou,decrease,decrease,True,True,11.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,increase,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T01:44:21.012000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"you only get one guess not two, and also your account has been suspected of being operated by the same person who operat",decrease,decrease,True,True,5922.8747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T08:12:01.557000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"thanks allot for clarifying your status!
+If you need any more brain power, it appears to me as if pro mode might indeed",decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T15:30:30.227000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Clarification 3, ""The EA leader in question must have assigned a decent probability to fraud/theft occurring."", gives a ",hold,decrease,False,True,2250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:22:06.295000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,an oddity of when you placed the order I think,increase,hold,False,True,3107.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T09:11:32.049000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,the puzzle will be generated on 1 Jan 2026.. posible,flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:29:30.632000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll guess BALLS tomorrow to make sure we are fair.,decrease,hold,False,True,61.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T06:58:49.785000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i can keep buying YES at 0.95 mana per YES currently and if the market resolves YES, each of those shares is 1 mana, and",increase,hold,False,True,58448.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-05T18:44:00.579000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh it was reffering to the New Yorker article discussed above (here: 
+https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-",hold,decrease,False,True,2222.921,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T19:49:44.411000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"He said it's harder this time, so it's probably gonna be something even more wack. I doubt we would be able to get headw",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-04T11:42:11.089000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Further thoughts: the particularly bad seeming things in the Slack story were I think the lack of discussion, and the su",increase,decrease,False,True,10820.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T20:19:36.102000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"And Hong Kong's antipode is in Argentina, which is close to Santos and President Kennedy 🤔",decrease,hold,False,True,5804.6834,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",decrease,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
+Or loosing vast ",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:42:20.094000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"same as herring. I think it depends on creator's ethnicity.  If he is British,  Auzzy, Indian or SouthAfrican.
+If he is",flip,decrease,False,True,13.9625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:58:28.810000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","From 
+Oliver Habryka's comment
+ on 
+some important questions for the EA Leadership
+:
+The image, both internally and",decrease,decrease,True,True,133.8997,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes
+or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-20T13:56:43.136000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I am excited. This will be a victory for armchair lawyers everywhere! I have to ask Gemini if federal court allows filin,decrease,increase,False,True,5595.0573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T08:52:47.005000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"No, you just have to hold below 5000 of them.",flip,hold,False,True,426.8103,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T08:42:08.108000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Maybe you will realize you can make a lot more selling down to 4999 NO,flip,decrease,False,True,426.8103,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T15:15:39.849000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Sure.  There was just a sealed document with 35 exhibits filed by the SEC against Binance.  There's no possible way that,increase,increase,True,True,85.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:11.357000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Anyone else noticed every hint has I or O in it?,increase,hold,False,True,46.8628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:31:29.960000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Does this answer have any actual sense, or is it just a random string of letters?",flip,decrease,False,True,13.9625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:21:10.711000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,It feels like the lamentations of Berry et al towards the end of The Big Short,hold,increase,False,True,61.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-12T17:28:50.438000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Tried this problem using the demo from this blog post: 
+https://huggingface.co/blog/winning-aimo-progress-prize
+It fai",hold,decrease,False,True,688.8195,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:16:22.807000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","“Oh, I didn’t check the slack that day. Must have missed this.” Like dude, give me a break.
+Do the dignified thing and ",hold,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:04.915000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If Ai Can't figure that out, are there any timetravellers or mind readers here?",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T15:17:06.626000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Sure, I can share that
+Edit:
+ Link to a chat",hold,hold,True,True,5109.9853,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:29:20.293000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Yeah ig. Well, my bribe is only for holding 5k at close, rest is their strategy",increase,hold,False,True,21069.2087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T11:14:01.135000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Clarification 2 says that the unethical behavior must be ""
+related
+ to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve ",decrease,increase,False,True,355.9047,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:09:36.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Guys, ‘Somerton.’ is the only hint including a period.",hold,hold,True,True,897.1409,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,decrease,decrease,True,True,5858.0321,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:41:29.740000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Oh, a Japanese word! That opens a whole new world of candidates",increase,increase,True,True,256.6573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:10:29.483000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"in fact, wouldnt u make more money if u sell a little bit at the very end?",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:58:46.578000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Swanson
+Then again, Peter is a common name, so these could all be coincidences",decrease,decrease,True,True,6314.3955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:23:18.412000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,clearly the only way to solve this problem is by resolving YES as a deterrent for anyone trying to persuade in the oppos,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:36:11.705000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"also these bots are crazy. I buy anything and immediately they limit order the opposite direction to catch the wave, the",flip,hold,False,True,484.3523,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T05:06:45.742000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Did you read the justification post? More than half of them were just hand-waving.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10284.2137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:49:19.187000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,It's just really hard to find...,decrease,decrease,True,True,10336.4194,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think 
+ is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point 
+if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:15:15.078000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,he can't - he can only resolve yes if he's persuaded,increase,flip,False,True,16.4821,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:20:46.031000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Collusion, collaboration, or coincidence.",flip,hold,False,True,2676.6136,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T11:16:05.290000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""If they only found out about the fraud after signing an NDA and couldn't legally say anything about it"" AFAIK NDAs can'",increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-29T02:46:43.731000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance, oh Binance, what a ride
+But will it end in a financial landslide?
+Will the crypto world be shook
+By a sudden",hold,hold,True,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-22T14:35:23.024000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,reposting for visibility - great question,increase,hold,False,True,187.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-04-17T20:52:33.880000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Update: Google's Bard does worse on this problem.,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:53:46.821000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,9gag and 9lives might be referring to cat memes,decrease,hold,False,True,4556.1727,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:14:38.384000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Why do you think it has to be the person running the market who would do this.  Anyone can do it.,decrease,hold,False,True,5075.0982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post 
+for free
+ (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T22:10:59.414000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried it just below. Not too late to change yours?,hold,flip,False,True,1264.5083,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:00:12.295000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Now that the case is in federal court, what will happen next?
+Options:
+(1). Sue sponte remand to the small claims cour",hold,decrease,False,True,2134.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:37:55.088000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,and any of those whales could've been W in this scenario.,flip,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T22:01:01.648000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I've never heard of it, tell me more.",increase,decrease,False,True,1884.3998,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:34:22.422000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,but wait what does Peter have to do with anything,decrease,decrease,True,True,3314.3955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T22:07:55.056000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,⭐ ⭐ ⭐ three stars for this hint,decrease,increase,False,True,6019.6461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T11:49:54.320000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Created a variant of this market:,hold,hold,True,True,14711.0863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T00:05:30.433000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","All it is, it is just more proof! It is for the arguments!",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T01:49:19.067000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I think the more important question is whether Binance does something like ""we are no longer going to serve US customers",increase,decrease,False,True,8216.7204,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T04:42:17.408000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"For everyone betting NO, wouldn't it make sense to at least offer a small settlement rather than have all the expense of",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T03:16:08.081000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"The second one it got right first try
+https://chatgpt.com/share/67550b08-a408-8012-8711-028f1b253fe3
+The first one it ",hold,increase,False,True,8518.7945,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:39:46.830000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"hint 2: peterhead harbor, 3: saint Peter, 4. variable-pitch propeller, typa aviation and Peter is shorthand, 5. Peter Gr",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:31:31.649000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,but idk how Peter is related to portugal... everything else can be related I think,hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:55:20.955000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,mb MBRV could also be Marine Biological Research Vessel,flip,hold,False,True,0.4634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:14:57.372000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"make the wise decision and sell a lil, u get to make 5k instead of the 300 firstuserhere is offering u right now",increase,decrease,False,True,81.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T05:06:48.913000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Roughly once a day I calculate how much it would cost to try to buy a hint and then hope you'll discover the market at 4,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T15:29:10.598000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Wow, Bouscal - the insider tradoor",decrease,decrease,True,True,2623.9703,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T13:35:43.768000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","that interpretation of things all makes sense, but I still think ""related to"" means it should be related to those things",hold,decrease,False,True,508.7276,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T14:03:16.673000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Oh, the IO thing is already solved! Just waiting for more hints.  
+https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-a",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T07:25:10.447000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,you seem to have a very interesting interpretation of how both AML and the practical regulation of consumer-facing finan,hold,hold,True,True,281.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T12:18:37.019000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,liquidating for the 10% market?,increase,decrease,False,True,39096.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T07:16:23.888000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"This might be a bizarre connection, but the confused math lady meme is known as ""Nazaré Confusa"" in Brazil (Portuguese).",flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T20:44:23.782000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,oh wait this is all about at close. NVM. Disregard.,increase,decrease,False,True,26969.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:12:17.339000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"ok including 
+ we got a little bit more than 2k usd pledge to charity. That’s actually not too shabby compared to nothi",hold,decrease,False,True,14449.5298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-10T00:18:01.109000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"The issuer of BUSD is under investigation by NYDFS: 
+https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/02/09/stablecoin-issuer-paxos",increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-23T01:30:57.609000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey 
+,
+Well, I’m back from Iceland. It was great, but to be honest, I’m glad to be home. The last day was kind of a do",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:01.686000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok might need to work out a few kinks first, hmm. I will post a guess by eod",flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T17:11:09.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"You will have to turn over all of your writings about the case, including this market.  I'm interested in what will happ",hold,decrease,False,True,2134.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T02:44:21.153000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
+Hmm, not sure ab",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T07:33:29.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You said [O-MBRV] and now O replaced with L? That 
+is
+ something...",decrease,decrease,True,True,326.9836,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",decrease,decrease,True,True,5922.8747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:32:27.107000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ah, that clarification makes it sound like this would only resolve positively if they suspect that FTX was dipping into ",decrease,flip,False,True,11.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T03:02:30.062000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"whaddya mean, surely everyone has put together several good leads by now.",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-25T02:02:53.240000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey 
+,
+TL;DR: Happy people like to surprise themselves. 
+You have about a week left in this market. Picture yourself ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-05T00:14:31.841000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"si LK 5  🤣 
+Lest you ask think I've gone mad.",increase,hold,False,True,2947.8207,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:24:26.292000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I've bribed Messi to split my final profits half with them,increase,hold,False,True,18551.0216,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-26T14:57:15.206000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Absent another court filing by MC, and another filing fee paid, this market resolves NO after only 25 more days from tod",hold,increase,False,True,2249.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,decrease,False,True,647.7873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:31:30.470000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"(also imagine W also invests in the market to make guaranteed profit. That way,  W makes even more mana by ensuring YES ",flip,flip,True,True,2.3674,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: 
+C-XXX  (
+The solution must consist of 
+five letters from the English alphabet
+ (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:40:42.947000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If Machini edits it into their pinned comment, that'll be as maximally linked as the spaces can be. I don't think clicki",hold,increase,False,True,155.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:54:36.419000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Sounds like the possible protocols are as follows, assuming k trials each for n problems:
+If, for every one of the n pr",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-09T23:18:29.681000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I’m curious why the scope of the unethical behavior criterion precludes investor money. From digging through the numerou,hold,decrease,False,True,1309.8368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:05:49.598000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,12/15/25 LMBRV (prob already tried but not on the eliza list?),increase,hold,False,True,1332.9812,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T07:10:10.276000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Assuming the requirement is ""every question in the set has to be solved at least 50% of the time"". Then obviously it's h",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:12:50.364000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"haha I think there's way more than 3, based on extrapolating this data:",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-25T18:11:32.688000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I should've made this more explicit sooner but to resolve YES this has to be available to the public with a natural lang,decrease,hold,False,True,13564.6088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T02:49:31.589000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have unbreaking faith in human infallibility so i reckon you will successfully resolve this market No. if you decide t,increase,increase,True,True,750.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",hold,hold,True,True,1800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:54:27.742000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,i asked gemini to reconstruct the 9gag mistery,increase,decrease,False,True,37.7567,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,flip,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T11:58:01.040000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sure. But this is expensive, and risky.",flip,decrease,False,True,384.1431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-17T04:37:55.943000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"An order allowing Binance(.US) to buy out Voyager has been released: 
+https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocuments",hold,increase,False,True,160.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T14:02:15.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Confession time: I may have misread the problem a teeny tiny bit. (Or is this a bluff to squeeze more mana out of my sol,flip,decrease,False,True,25757.5376,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:36:50.729000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Petition to move the guess thread to a separate place to facilitate discussion not overlapping with guesses.,increase,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:57:56.528000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,gpt-4o isn't the model succeeding. o1 and o1 pro. Perhaps another model by eoy. Who knows. Lots of releases are happenin,hold,decrease,False,True,8518.7945,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:45:10.614000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Some US senators are getting peeved at Binance/Binance.US and have penned an irritated letter asking for Binance to prop,hold,increase,False,True,271.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T19:50:21.531000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Pretty sure that was already guessed.,decrease,decrease,True,True,11659.1888,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:50:35.281000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Whoever tries it will get banned for wasting resources.,decrease,increase,False,True,2196.4774,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T11:27:21.879000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think this is gonna depend a 
+lot
+ on 3. I think they probably had quite a lot of information but I don't believe th",decrease,decrease,True,True,700.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:55:24.722000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,The only thing that concerns me is that if they don't respond to the lawsuit and there's some sort of default judgment e,hold,decrease,False,True,1150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-03-17T22:31:55.442000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Not allowed to use it in the EU :/,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:50:53.455000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Don't pin it! If I want to keep it updated I'll put it in a different place that could be linked to. I have no plans to ,decrease,hold,False,True,10336.4194,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:33:26.191000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"After today's hint if we get just 10 hints, then we'll almost surely know the 4th letter and there are (probably) only a",increase,decrease,False,True,2497.6991,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",flip,decrease,False,True,645.8866,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%.  I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T15:58:09.639000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Ben didn't like my guess. I must've got it right. (jk),decrease,hold,False,True,1940.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:41:08.260000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i just think it’d be really funny if you resolved yes for no reason…,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T06:52:38.746000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Would you feel comfortable holding more No shares if there was a market like this?
+What if I add a bunch of subsidy man",increase,increase,True,True,1650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_count.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
+0,0.5682969209260376,0.43472877560354817,-0.1335681453224894,DOWN,0.9823009306960637,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+1,0.5835023342680058,0.5338265291300477,-0.04967580513795811,DOWN,0.8830162135557698,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+2,0.7469054112627941,0.7616666666666667,0.01476125540387263,UP,0.43052036435100727,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,6,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+3,0.6269325748888418,0.6112401240313164,-0.015692450857525353,DOWN,0.994947695816903,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+4,0.16230827183970142,0.48638837234146115,0.3240801005017597,UP,0.505715349795066,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,19,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5,0.13041906365918085,0.08315444127330489,-0.04726462238587596,DOWN,0.7445208512939634,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6,0.6083450826583398,0.6269325748888418,0.018587492230502045,UP,0.9991483775256365,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+7,0.1939682496460384,0.10646326441866381,-0.08750498522737458,DOWN,0.9641945964494253,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+8,0.4994196027193844,0.617567078741663,0.11814747602227854,UP,0.5814551301812896,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),19,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9,0.43472877560354817,0.3999999999999999,-0.034728775603548256,DOWN,0.05234121585136312,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+10,0.6197132068210287,0.5835023342680058,-0.03621087255302291,DOWN,0.6063948617831412,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+11,0.7190381226138495,0.6083450826583398,-0.11069303995550972,DOWN,0.882043086124962,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+12,0.1543995179722191,0.13041906365918085,-0.023980454313038246,DOWN,0.9738272445908431,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+13,0.5001942727517754,0.5072014486413321,0.007007175889556683,UP,0.6558853328857742,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,39,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+14,0.5185052537087812,0.37740992706657084,-0.14109532664221036,DOWN,0.994491038725894,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,19,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+15,0.6300791470882433,0.1757975696862428,-0.4542815774020005,DOWN,0.7863470974438947,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,19,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+16,0.2272822654664855,0.1852677214779782,-0.04201454398850729,DOWN,0.579822734348674,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+17,0.43176105664942244,0.4171758120571003,-0.014585244592322133,DOWN,0.776425247673005,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+18,0.21591682648611998,0.1939682496460384,-0.021948576840081585,DOWN,0.9421097072280937,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+19,0.6379098827246941,0.8730966677331466,0.23518678500845258,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_time.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
+0,0.4558314438171511,0.39824910706127503,-0.057582336755876096,DOWN,0.6049548040968661,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,18,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+1,0.6513760980528671,0.624415867307833,-0.026960230745034064,DOWN,0.9447211589826348,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),39,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+2,0.2165861534199471,0.14824292151444413,-0.06834323190550298,DOWN,0.6364679689435004,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",29,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+3,0.4949509900999808,0.5001343114490816,0.005183321349100822,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+4,0.16934111968893711,0.11149785155851812,-0.057843268130419,DOWN,0.9662666406366572,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5,0.15931149245461138,0.19352562478450577,0.0342141323298944,UP,0.04591294978735122,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,108,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6,0.5943135435481972,0.5588202582935126,-0.03549328525468465,DOWN,0.8890978358667687,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),20,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+7,0.1637696621846289,0.13252031814517432,-0.03124934403945459,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+8,0.5543695596059615,0.5015835144935317,-0.05278604511242979,DOWN,0.5687710651615665,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9,0.4436696994687241,0.449739932719574,0.006070233250849932,UP,0.8103211099743975,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,33,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+10,0.4118267602733189,0.4256336864306903,0.01380692615737139,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+11,0.1496417276922608,0.18674794857723925,0.03710622088497845,UP,0.861878453038674,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+12,0.2282864091995914,0.18072393001979026,-0.04756247917980114,DOWN,0.664777903331812,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+13,0.6911952317973679,0.5591228668498748,-0.13207236494749308,DOWN,0.9960840105441541,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+14,0.5875181520199887,0.6404199148870552,0.05290176286706649,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+15,0.599016350217192,0.5862542134235964,-0.012762136793595613,DOWN,0.5452692610767091,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+16,0.7246446219773748,0.6160819310542984,-0.10856269092307635,DOWN,0.8932223257410462,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+17,0.4526128707279963,0.24708020207262288,-0.2055326686553734,DOWN,0.9446010320874271,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,22,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+18,0.19883267027086424,0.16047717108910908,-0.038355499181755154,DOWN,0.9953764861294584,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+19,0.4608966355813974,0.6813790966441658,0.22048246106276848,UP,0.9509593039767466,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_0shot.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule:
+We are in an interesting situation! There's the 
+other market
+ about how long it will t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting.
+",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet. 
+Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 %  to ensure an average of at l",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would 
+tweet,
+ it is about what I would 
+write.
+  Like, fine for SG to say it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on 
+'s calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds.
+Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit.
+My position at 32 point:
+(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to 
+ and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close.
+By the way, 
+, do I understand it correct",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes. 
+Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market
+ by buyi",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right?
+Relate",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen
+ A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to 
+https://manifold.markets/jack/will",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining 
+any
+ of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
+Al",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house.
+There's some rats in this (group) house.
+There's some rats in this (group) ho",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_1shot.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet. 
+Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 %  to ensure an average of at l",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting.
+",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule:
+We are in an interesting situation! There's the 
+other market
+ about how long it will t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds.
+Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would 
+tweet,
+ it is about what I would 
+write.
+  Like, fine for SG to say it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to 
+ and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close.
+By the way, 
+, do I understand it correct",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on 
+'s calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit.
+My position at 32 point:
+(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes. 
+Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market
+ by buyi",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right?
+Relate",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen
+ A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to 
+https://manifold.markets/jack/will",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining 
+any
+ of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
+Al",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house.
+There's some rats in this (group) house.
+There's some rats in this (group) ho",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,177 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-11T21:36:27.789000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"according to guidelines 
+yup!
+Accounts used for the following will be met with punishment […]
+Holding positions which",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by 
+selling all my
+ NO 
+shares
+""",NO,NO,True,True,26812.7027,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,YES,NO,False,True,13100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:32:14.985000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","No, it's only M$723. Where did you get 10k?",NO,NO,True,True,491.4308,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on 
+'s calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",NO,NO,True,True,3553.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T18:46:58.050000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Does that mean when it says I bought some shares at 70%, I actually bought them at a price between 69.5% and 70.5%? Is t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,40.4991,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,YES,NO,False,True,389.9288,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:35:45.294000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Evan should give mana to the banned account who now holds 1 mana in yes instead of 61.,YES,NO,False,True,9355.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor.
+This market has nothing to do with predi",YES,NO,False,True,16030.9049,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T00:16:09.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I appreciate Isaac’s annoyance, but it’s okay with me as long as you don’t advertise a ton of markets this way. It is tr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:38:45.241000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,also allow and encourage 1-59 YES buyers to discourage >60 YES buyers and make them defect,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:34:26.203000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Trading hasn't been this exciting since I lost $50,000 shorting Gamestop after Elon Musk tweeted ""#gamestonk"". The excha",YES,NO,False,True,94664.4587,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:08:43.548000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I mostly meant fictional feathers then. Even with only M$10k in my account I could place a hundred M$10k limit orders to,NO,NO,True,True,31733.9851,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:04:31.438000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there's actually so much profit to be made from whales switching to yes
+but if they don't there's not much a pleb can d",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:21:23.840000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"the poll about the definition of ""The World"" 
+has concluded. from my comment there:
+looks like sufficient consensus sa",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:25:05.034000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Self-thought-organizing M$5: 
+I broadly agree, but strictly speaking – and I’m sure you know this – this market is much",YES,NO,False,True,10000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T17:09:10.297000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,What's that about M$2k left for NO buyers?,NO,NO,True,True,9415.3326,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2354.1354,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",YES,NO,False,True,9033.6091,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",YES,NO,False,True,4974.6809,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:17:06.609000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","All in, $10k+ committed to effective charity on Monday. Let’s actually do this, folks.",YES,YES,True,True,619954.6843,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:00:41.012000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Agreed, I just burned $1100 in 20 minutes and it makes me feel dumb. I should have known better.",NO,NO,True,True,608.0723,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house.
+There's some rats in this (group) house.
+There's some rats in this (group) ho",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:55:57.200000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","A tweet must have been tweeted in order to be edited.
+A tweet was tweeted.
+Resolved YES. Congratulations 
+.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",NO,NO,True,True,563.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:02:07.335000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I think I'll just make a ruling on this one, as it feels like an easy one that doesnt require a consensus poll. We don't",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting.
+",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",YES,NO,False,True,76345.9371,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T05:11:01.493000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Alrighty, I'm hearing ~$9000 so far from the yes team in immediate donations. Do we have a number from the no's?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,11500.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,YES,YES,True,True,10097.0229,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:01:03.707000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll probably spend (at least) $3k buying NO (potentially more if necessary). I won't buy it all at once so that it give,NO,NO,True,True,4350.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:47:22.510000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The difference between me cashing out my current shares at 3% vs. cashing them out at 0% is M$27,457.",NO,NO,True,True,466186.8405,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:19:24.266000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"If it makes you feel better, I lost $50k shorting Gamestop because Elon Musk tweeted ""#gamestonk"".",NO,NO,True,True,150.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",NO,NO,True,True,1960.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen
+ A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",YES,NO,False,True,95663.5175,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet. 
+Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 %  to ensure an average of at l",NO,YES,False,True,237.9558,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining 
+any
+ of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,12850.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,70.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T16:00:40.378000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,All: Should I BUY MANIFOLD MARKETS so that I can release THE 69 FILES and reveal to THE PEOPLE the TRUTH of what happene,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,63485.9539,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:25:01.305000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Why is your budget way more than your profit of winning (also add the 100000 lottery), you better give all of the mana y",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would 
+tweet,
+ it is about what I would 
+write.
+  Like, fine for SG to say it",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T10:31:02.276000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,love it! the poetry argument is a really good one I hadn't heard. I imagine it's finite due to the limitations of human ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:56:38.267000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","No, not even close. Nobody cared to subsidize this market, so it just has the unique trader subsidies, which total a pid",NO,NO,True,True,509623.6977,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,YES,YES,True,True,76345.9371,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:05:25.194000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Exactly, the M161k probably assumes that all limit orders will be paid in full. When I enter M$42425 in the box to buy Y",NO,NO,True,True,14887.858,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:21:35.718000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",What? Pretty much all the other markets linked are derivative markets of this one.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:13.829000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wait, I can't do math. It's about M$7475.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,491.4308,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
+ Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",NO,NO,True,True,1850.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",YES,NO,False,True,95813.5175,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T13:51:52.735000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","alright I'm taking my profits and leaving, this market has become too risky of shenanigans",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:31:54.561000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll tip you M$400 if after cashing out you agree to immediately initiate a YES position @ 69% with it. There's a 50% re,YES,YES,True,True,94664.4587,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-06-09T14:24:23.380000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Jun 7: Born to Be Blue
+Jun 8: The Guilty, 2018
+Jun 9: Oslo, August 31st
+Jun 9: The Matrix",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-28T20:48:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"lol. it's supposed to be silly, which is why I'm regularly communicating about trends and intentions",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:25:44.267000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"YES has about a 50% profit rate near 69%. So suppose I invested M$100k to get ~M$150k return. That is M$50k of profit, r",YES,YES,True,True,76345.9371,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:11:30.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Jack's and arae's cash are not festhers, I have less than M$100K in hand, I bet I could go all in and still they will ou",NO,NO,True,True,4626.2298,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T21:19:27.936000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"fyi due to the poll I ran, I'm not accepting visual organs or lenses that aren't called ""eyes"". the market wasn't able t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:28:36.279000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Also, you can do a 
+lot 
+of things with US$10,000 that are probably better than spending it on a jokey prediction mark",YES,NO,False,True,138.6975,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T22:56:03.500000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Mira's M4,000 in NO at 70% require an investment of M9333.3 in YES to overcome.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,16453.9776,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right?
+Relate",YES,NO,False,True,114.4754,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule:
+We are in an interesting situation! There's the 
+other market
+ about how long it will t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T16:11:29.640000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'd love to officially endorse your calculations as the official average for meta markets when this market closes. The o,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",YES,NO,False,True,22.1413,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T16:31:39.158000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",There are a lot of meta-markets about this one that require it to be open the whole time. I have markets about what perc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:28:23.494000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The bribes seem to be for current holders, defectors, etc. I'm not anymore holding shares at the moment and haven't acce",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",NO,NO,True,True,509623.6977,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:34:06.910000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm kinda surprised this market is so low. The M$200,000 it would take to turn this around is only $2000 of real world m",NO,YES,False,True,476186.8405,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",NO,NO,True,True,386730.068,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T02:31:40.488000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'll wait until close, as specified in the description. I'm hoping to double-check the calculations tomorrow so that I c",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",NO,NO,True,True,7000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T04:02:17.407000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","right so you're calculating the variance of ""Euclidian distance to (mean x, mean y)""",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:45:51.663000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","people holding NO can sell now, with a lot of profit, and then switch to YES, and profit more",NO,YES,False,True,215.1566,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,6872.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T22:57:51.262000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,This seems far from over...it would only take a collective $300 to deplete the limit orders...,NO,NO,True,True,8.1569,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T16:35:36.327000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Y'all, we're officially a feature on the Manifold homepage!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes. 
+Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market
+ by buyi",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",NO,NO,True,True,2904.827,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:11:56.901000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","At this point, the remaining average needs to be greater than 61% for YES to win. For YES to even get there will require",NO,NO,True,True,26802.7027,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T05:58:01.599000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",This could explain some things...,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",NO,YES,False,True,26812.7027,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to 
+https://manifold.markets/jack/will",NO,NO,True,True,27445.7605,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:16:35.246000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I uploaded a new version of the image. Some of the circles overlap, not much one can do about that, but should be an imp",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to 
+ and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close.
+By the way, 
+, do I understand it correct",YES,YES,True,True,53.7475,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit.
+My position at 32 point:
+(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",YES,NO,False,True,2.4136,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:48:17.960000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","but alex, you could have BOTH, join yes and you'll see profit and help galen donate $10k",YES,YES,True,True,10097.0229,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T22:56:53.526000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"tbh, 
+, I think it's mostly your fault the way people are using the word. Your bounties all have ""defect"" in the title.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,YES,NO,False,True,12850.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T11:28:18.384000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",My NO limit orders at 70 aren't to protect 70; they're to protect me. Obviously I'd like the market to resolve YES with ,YES,YES,True,True,617.3257,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:57:46.446000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I'll be giving the last 10 points tonight, probably within the next hour. I'll then be sleeping. In the morning I will r",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,476186.8405,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
+Al",NO,NO,True,True,16453.9776,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T15:32:06.289000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Here's the deal, even though the amount of bets to bring down the median is still rising, the top two holders have incre",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T09:35:03.198000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Almost exactly 100k no buys requires now to hit 10%.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:14:29.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Reminder that if YES wins, >1m mana is removed from circulation and 10k+ is donated to charity, whereas if NO wins, ~1m ",YES,YES,True,True,12156.2615,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-18T22:19:36.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,A bold plan! I wish you the best of luck. :),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T17:27:19.053000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"The M$2K is the profit if you put $INFINITY on NO.
+My standing offer is retracted, so my shares remain uncommitted.",YES,NO,False,True,76345.9371,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds.
+Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T17:26:57.286000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There seems to be some misinformation about this being about ""charity"" vs ""not charity"" (I know some of it's probably no",NO,NO,True,True,57759.1161,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:04:41.259000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Like the ""lower parts = feet"" thing I find an outdated model of atomic particles to be unconvincing and I don't think it",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:07:43.356000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"ooo now that is a 
+good
+ argument for eyes!",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:18:45.948000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Well, I imagine you are overestimating how many people have enough disposable income to invest $2K (and in reality much ",NO,NO,True,True,6008.9413,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T06:27:05.816000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"we also have square feet, there's actually an infinite number of them, if you think of the world as an onion with infini",hold,increase,False,True,65.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T16:05:22.476000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You have to shift perspective from the uniform distribution to the distribution over 100 points drawn uniformly. They ar,increase,increase,True,True,472.6291,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:37:22.776000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",What is the definition of rationalussy? This has been the biggest mystery of the market.,increase,hold,False,True,2013.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T10:26:51.567000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Current count comes to 141 if I'm going by the 93 total from Aug 30 + the 48 watched since. Does that align with your cu,decrease,decrease,True,True,1580.7275,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,decrease,decrease,True,True,225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:36:14.124000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",True. Nobody should ever donate to charity because eventually one of their generations of children may decide not to hav,flip,decrease,False,True,13076.2615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",hold,decrease,False,True,509623.6977,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T09:13:44.454000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Hash digest of my thoughts for posterity: f6d10a61ad1d0d8654cd7a76ea029d20568ef085e53a785d30556e9c646db7ad,increase,hold,False,True,2200.0272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T09:07:03.156000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I have crunched some numbers in order to provide some information to all market participants:
+Current average: 62.23
+R",flip,hold,False,True,268.5169,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:43:49.088000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Just bet the Ṁ60,170 required to make it resolve YES. Easy.",flip,increase,False,True,743.1068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:37:55.799000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,There is no opportunity cost and a non-zero chance of profit. I don't see any reason not to put a limit order at 10%.,flip,increase,False,True,2045.2756,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:46:24.605000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",im waiting 4 it 2 get a bit lower,increase,decrease,False,True,50082.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:21:27.043000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Another perspective. Let’s say greens is human. It had the transform applied. Applying the transform a second time is ef,increase,decrease,False,True,472.6291,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T06:02:31.839000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'll believe for as long as is necessary,decrease,increase,False,True,1647.1188,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T01:08:17.398000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",There is that possibility but my guess is they won't risk that much money for profit the wealthiest of the 2 whales prob,flip,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:23:22.015000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Unfortunately, I agree the case against YES is weak. Eliezer did 'write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by th",hold,flip,False,True,1340.739,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:01:21.337000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","I want to thank me, myself, me, and me.",hold,hold,True,True,954.0866,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:01:03.933000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"if I don't sell I make more than 1000, if I sell I lose 2000+.
+Your offer isn't worth it for me, it's over 3000 mana ne",hold,hold,True,True,9055.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T23:01:02.484000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",In that case they can switch their strategy to buying it up to 71%.  That one has a free rider problem but no incentive ,decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T04:27:17.957000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","If you're going for maximum ambiguity, you should make sure to misspell it, perhaps with rare Unicode characters that lo",increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor.
+This market has nothing to do with predi",flip,decrease,False,True,16030.9049,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:13:33.701000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"one account, even if you ignore him when deciding which side won right now you need 20 people.
+I checked last few trade",hold,decrease,False,True,9355.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:46:43.291000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","maybe i'll do one of those ""limit orders""
+U DONT KNOWQ",increase,decrease,False,True,50082.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:18:43.075000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"fwiw, I found myself in a similar postion. I ended up defecting and voluntarily returned the 50 Mana bounty I originally",increase,flip,False,True,0.9431,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T07:54:27.003000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Only 6 minutes left for bribes!,decrease,hold,False,True,16453.9776,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:19:28.785000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Sounds like you want us to maximize our positive impact on the world. But attempting to maximize some quantity at all co,flip,decrease,False,True,9366.9962,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T17:54:19.645000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",they cancel together with my NO share into one mana,increase,hold,False,True,57759.1161,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:00:55.083000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"idk man i want mira to win really bad
+underdog vibes",decrease,decrease,True,True,367.3066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:12.675000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Gonna be pretty hard for those whales to get the market up against all the limit orders and then hold it to a >69% avera,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,hold,True,True,111312.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:38:25.463000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think the close time and EY timezone are the most obvious, and in general it makes sense to assume that people in the ",increase,hold,False,True,1763.0881,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,0.2545,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T11:27:12.363000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Update at 60 points. I'm not advocating these metrics, but if you are basing your odds on them, I think you should updat",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:27:51.132000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If this market resolves N/A I am personally breaking into Conflux's house, logging onto their Discord account, and askin",increase,increase,True,True,402730.068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-16T01:33:56.375000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"THANK YOU TO ALL PARTICIPANTS, HOPE YOU ALL HAD FUN!",hold,hold,True,True,21880.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:03.366000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",damn. I am away from my computer for the next 8h. Can’t even update on the recent batch. Let alone on the next one.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:07:37.526000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","What are you basing your opinion on? I tried scipy discrepancy, but it didn't give much info in favour of No. Can you gi",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:27:56.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was able to reproduce the average using the data linked by 
+ below (link no longer working), here's my script:
+https",decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T15:57:47.609000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"honestly not sure what this market truly is asking , but why did you bet so much on it?",increase,decrease,False,True,14.0533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:36:12.639000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,DM me on Discord for Team NO's offers.,increase,hold,False,True,1706.2423,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T03:45:10.393000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this is such a good post I'm selling some No shares. Big Foot 😂😂😂,increase,decrease,False,True,697.927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:18:55.260000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Am I right in assuming new points come every hour when you are awake?,increase,hold,False,True,35.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:53:35.066000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","dude this is all for fun, my bet is 5 Mana 😃 This is not a serious prediction market",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:26:16.145000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Are you sure this is worth quitting Manifold over? I and the others are doing this for fun, we try to avoid getting emot",flip,decrease,False,True,10706.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T03:09:28.966000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Simply double your bet every time you lose. Then the probability of winning approaches 100% as you continue to play, and",flip,increase,False,True,94664.4587,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:48:39.295000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Oh, this is awkward, but my current shirt is actually grey. That profile pic is a little out of date.",increase,hold,False,True,280523.3276,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-10T04:05:36.660000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Given that I'm now way overinvested in this market lol because I have to tune my bot, is this the median of the bet amou",hold,decrease,False,True,468.4221,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T12:47:00.523000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","YES shares are cheaper, and there's plenty of time to turn the market around. Surely someone's willing to take the risk.",flip,flip,True,True,9.5637,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T22:21:06.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I wonder too. Both Galen and Spindle seem to have been around since July 2022. Hardly newcomers.,flip,hold,False,True,74.3707,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T03:20:30.210000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Plus or minus a few minutes uncertainty, a NO victory is now mathematically guaranteed.",decrease,increase,False,True,3553.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T01:09:53.135000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I think the first hammer is partly a show-of-force. It discourages people from buying YES from sheer fear. Whereas M10k,",flip,decrease,False,True,3816.1874,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:07:09.219000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"It's similar to putting dynamically-updated limit orders at every percentage, that's like molasses that buyers on both s",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:02:01.948000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Don't take feathers lightly. They can weight more than iron when in a sufficient quantity.,flip,hold,False,True,10273.328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:07.901000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Are you just saying this to get people to bet the market up so you can buy more NO?,flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:53:43.393000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",do you mind holding off on revealing the transformations? Working through the analysis,decrease,hold,False,True,1421.8721,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:26:45.348000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Well ~400M here and ~1000M in the other market 😅. I could only bribe you with ~50M, since my stakes in that other market",increase,hold,False,True,3651.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T03:30:12.301000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",eliezer i get that a sufficiently smarter entity will always be able to outsmart be in creative ways i wasn’t able to pr,hold,hold,True,True,2930.8165,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:41:53.636000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"it shows you the new probability after your bet, so if you check that you should be fine. You're not going to get it to ",increase,hold,False,True,2904.827,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:34:17.349000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","discrepancy is in scipy 
+Blue: Discrepencies values for 100_000 draw of uniformly distributed 2d vars between 0-400, ea",flip,hold,False,True,37.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Evan has forced our hand. 
+From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T06:29:14.969000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is huge, it was at 60 last night!",hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:35:19.479000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,This will be 70% in two hours.,decrease,increase,False,True,2468.5106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:19:21.279000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"hmmm I had been operating under the assumption that ""in the world"" meant Earth. Is that not the case?",increase,decrease,False,True,610.4313,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:24:53.346000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,The community guidelines don't say anything about soliciting bribes!,decrease,hold,False,True,15953.9776,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:22:51.066000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","yeah alex, you should go all in 😁",increase,increase,True,True,3157.5104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:54:25.652000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","You can still get regression to the mean on a statistical no-op. Let's say you sampled some random data, and the mean of",decrease,decrease,True,True,1562.1637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T20:21:03.067000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I like the idea as well, but I have extremely limited free time for the next 6 hours.",decrease,decrease,True,True,898.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-06T17:08:28.182000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","is all-in, after winning gamble market after gamble market. Can anyone stop him??",increase,increase,True,True,211.6461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",hold,hold,True,True,6872.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T02:25:23.634000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I'm enjoying reading the popular comments as this adventure continues over time, but I'm also worried how much mana I ha",hold,decrease,False,True,2400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:35:12.686000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I just checked how often the quadrants switch between points and got a moderately anomalous result, p=0.186.",decrease,decrease,True,True,816.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:46:43.442000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yea. I still don't weight this metric much as I don't understand it.,increase,decrease,False,True,218.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2468.5106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T05:27:19.127000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","That remains to be seen. All joking aside, I have nothing against Buttocks, but the particular people who have bet NO on",decrease,hold,False,True,1942.9583,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:05.327000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it's that much of a worry. I'd say Isaac is trustworthy. ish.,hold,decrease,False,True,13.9176,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:43:27.174000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, this account is where most of that mana came from in the first place.",decrease,hold,False,True,10393.3874,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:16:19.787000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw another one earlier, 
+. That account actually has a bet history though",hold,hold,True,True,112725.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T05:01:34.304000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""the one with your name on it, no alts""",increase,hold,False,True,2033.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:35:33.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","As relevant to the ""will it be a prime number"" market, the average from now would need to be 1.874 or higher for the fin",decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T06:06:43.018000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Can someone describe what is going on here?,hold,hold,True,True,16000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T21:50:09.064000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Yes. This is why I’m confused- Eliezer’s tweet was, in my eyes,  not ambiguous- It directly satisfied the “Yes” requirem",hold,flip,False,True,1100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:23:00.303000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,trying to lose that trustworthyish badge are we?,decrease,decrease,True,True,2193.8923,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T16:47:38.309000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Sharing a bit of my work. I was focusing on several metrics that all rely on the assumption that the data was NOT shuffl,increase,decrease,False,True,776.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:10:04.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",oh thank god I thought my NO limit orders might never be filled,decrease,hold,False,True,13.9744,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T11:35:22.747000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Been a while since the last update. Where we at?
+Edit: According to their LBd they're still watching plenty of movies, ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:40:23.460000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Tipping was removed a few weeks ago. Almost everybody hates this decision and wants them back. The best way to send mana,flip,decrease,False,True,9033.6091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T22:37:49.743000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"clearly you can't find a logical refutation, and must resort to a rigged poll. This happens every time the feet win the ",hold,increase,False,True,95.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:08:04.273000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"you can check if the question is edited by looking at the history (3 dots, more info)",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:06:13.569000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","That's what I was expecting too. I started selling mine, but then I started to doubt myself and thought ""what if somebod",hold,decrease,False,True,5.7462,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T22:41:53.758000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The problem is, I can say the same about red. Multiple, uncorrelated metrics, chosen with minimal cherry-picking, all wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,1752.8074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:57:13.718000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Ah, how the knife turns to cut its own wielder.",flip,decrease,False,True,10273.328,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:21:53.251000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Folks, the bounty for reverting back to 61 YES is worth so much more, and is up until market close!
+https://manifold.ma",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:42:32.750000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The gap has narrowed by 10 points in the last few hours!,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:41.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Silly goose, you are losing by a mile",decrease,decrease,True,True,41758.6495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T01:57:55.843000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"The point is that you buy YES shares to eventually cache them out. If I'm not mistaken, this would work as long as there",flip,hold,False,True,252.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:30:57.613000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",It doesn’t matter. The new year passed over an hour ago. This will resolve NO.,flip,flip,True,True,5.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:26:25.447000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",eliezer himself thinks there's equally good arguments for and against. he constructed the tweet to make that the case. I,hold,decrease,False,True,2986.045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:14:22.256000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","and 
+ could both put down quite large No limit orders north of 50% if they want to sell their shares to him as incentiv",decrease,hold,False,True,1216.902,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_decrease_hold.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:01:03.933000+00:00,"if I don't sell I make more than 1000, if I sell I lose 2000+.
+Your offer isn't worth it for me, it's over 3000 mana ne",hold,hold,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:53:35.066000+00:00,"dude this is all for fun, my bet is 5 Mana 😃 This is not a serious prediction market",hold,hold,True
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:05.327000+00:00,I don't think it's that much of a worry. I'd say Isaac is trustworthy. ish.,hold,hold,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:16:19.787000+00:00,"I saw another one earlier, 
+. That account actually has a bet history though",hold,hold,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T06:29:14.969000+00:00,"This is huge, it was at 60 last night!",hold,decrease,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:35:33.300000+00:00,"As relevant to the ""will it be a prime number"" market, the average from now would need to be 1.874 or higher for the fin",decrease,decrease,True
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T20:21:03.067000+00:00,"I like the idea as well, but I have extremely limited free time for the next 6 hours.",decrease,decrease,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",hold,decrease,False
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T07:54:27.003000+00:00,Only 6 minutes left for bribes!,decrease,decrease,True
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:24:53.346000+00:00,The community guidelines don't say anything about soliciting bribes!,decrease,hold,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T03:20:30.210000+00:00,"Plus or minus a few minutes uncertainty, a NO victory is now mathematically guaranteed.",decrease,hold,False
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T10:26:51.567000+00:00,Current count comes to 141 if I'm going by the 93 total from Aug 30 + the 48 watched since. Does that align with your cu,decrease,hold,False
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:35:19.479000+00:00,This will be 70% in two hours.,decrease,hold,False
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:21:53.251000+00:00,"Folks, the bounty for reverting back to 61 YES is worth so much more, and is up until market close!
+https://manifold.ma",hold,decrease,False
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T22:37:49.743000+00:00,"clearly you can't find a logical refutation, and must resort to a rigged poll. This happens every time the feet win the ",hold,hold,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",hold,hold,True
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:06:13.569000+00:00,"That's what I was expecting too. I started selling mine, but then I started to doubt myself and thought ""what if somebod",hold,decrease,False
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:23:00.303000+00:00,trying to lose that trustworthyish badge are we?,decrease,decrease,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:27:56.581000+00:00,"I was able to reproduce the average using the data linked by 
+ below (link no longer working), here's my script:
+https",decrease,hold,False
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:03.366000+00:00,damn. I am away from my computer for the next 8h. Can’t even update on the recent batch. Let alone on the next one.,decrease,decrease,True
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T22:41:53.758000+00:00,"The problem is, I can say the same about red. Multiple, uncorrelated metrics, chosen with minimal cherry-picking, all wi",decrease,decrease,True
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T06:06:43.018000+00:00,Can someone describe what is going on here?,hold,decrease,False
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-10T04:05:36.660000+00:00,"Given that I'm now way overinvested in this market lol because I have to tune my bot, is this the median of the bet amou",hold,decrease,False
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T21:50:09.064000+00:00,"Yes. This is why I’m confused- Eliezer’s tweet was, in my eyes,  not ambiguous- It directly satisfied the “Yes” requirem",hold,decrease,False
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:01:21.337000+00:00,"I want to thank me, myself, me, and me.",hold,hold,True
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T23:01:02.484000+00:00,In that case they can switch their strategy to buying it up to 71%.  That one has a free rider problem but no incentive ,decrease,hold,False
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T06:27:05.816000+00:00,"we also have square feet, there's actually an infinite number of them, if you think of the world as an onion with infini",hold,decrease,False
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:54:25.652000+00:00,"You can still get regression to the mean on a statistical no-op. Let's say you sampled some random data, and the mean of",decrease,decrease,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:41.371000+00:00,"Silly goose, you are losing by a mile",decrease,decrease,True
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:35:12.686000+00:00,"I just checked how often the quadrants switch between points and got a moderately anomalous result, p=0.186.",decrease,decrease,True
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:14:22.256000+00:00,"and 
+ could both put down quite large No limit orders north of 50% if they want to sell their shares to him as incentiv",decrease,decrease,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:42:32.750000+00:00,The gap has narrowed by 10 points in the last few hours!,hold,decrease,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:10:04.581000+00:00,oh thank god I thought my NO limit orders might never be filled,decrease,decrease,True
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T02:25:23.634000+00:00,"I'm enjoying reading the popular comments as this adventure continues over time, but I'm also worried how much mana I ha",hold,decrease,False
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:23:22.015000+00:00,"Unfortunately, I agree the case against YES is weak. Eliezer did 'write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by th",hold,decrease,False
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,decrease,False
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-16T01:33:56.375000+00:00,"THANK YOU TO ALL PARTICIPANTS, HOPE YOU ALL HAD FUN!",hold,hold,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T06:02:31.839000+00:00,I'll believe for as long as is necessary,decrease,hold,False
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:00:55.083000+00:00,"idk man i want mira to win really bad
+underdog vibes",decrease,decrease,True
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T05:27:19.127000+00:00,"That remains to be seen. All joking aside, I have nothing against Buttocks, but the particular people who have bet NO on",decrease,decrease,True
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:43:27.174000+00:00,"Yeah, this account is where most of that mana came from in the first place.",decrease,hold,False
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,decrease,decrease,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,"Evan has forced our hand. 
+From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,hold,True
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:53:43.393000+00:00,do you mind holding off on revealing the transformations? Working through the analysis,decrease,hold,False
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T03:30:12.301000+00:00,eliezer i get that a sufficiently smarter entity will always be able to outsmart be in creative ways i wasn’t able to pr,hold,hold,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,decrease,True
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:26:25.447000+00:00,eliezer himself thinks there's equally good arguments for and against. he constructed the tweet to make that the case. I,hold,decrease,False
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:13:33.701000+00:00,"one account, even if you ignore him when deciding which side won right now you need 20 people.
+I checked last few trade",hold,decrease,False

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_flip_hold.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:53:35.066000+00:00,"dude this is all for fun, my bet is 5 Mana 😃 This is not a serious prediction market",hold,hold,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:01:03.933000+00:00,"if I don't sell I make more than 1000, if I sell I lose 2000+.
+Your offer isn't worth it for me, it's over 3000 mana ne",hold,hold,True
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:02:01.948000+00:00,Don't take feathers lightly. They can weight more than iron when in a sufficient quantity.,flip,hold,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T12:47:00.523000+00:00,"YES shares are cheaper, and there's plenty of time to turn the market around. Surely someone's willing to take the risk.",flip,flip,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T06:29:14.969000+00:00,"This is huge, it was at 60 last night!",hold,flip,False
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:16:19.787000+00:00,"I saw another one earlier, 
+. That account actually has a bet history though",hold,hold,True
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:05.327000+00:00,I don't think it's that much of a worry. I'd say Isaac is trustworthy. ish.,hold,hold,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",hold,hold,True
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:37:55.799000+00:00,There is no opportunity cost and a non-zero chance of profit. I don't see any reason not to put a limit order at 10%.,flip,flip,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:07.901000+00:00,Are you just saying this to get people to bet the market up so you can buy more NO?,flip,hold,False
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T22:37:49.743000+00:00,"clearly you can't find a logical refutation, and must resort to a rigged poll. This happens every time the feet win the ",hold,flip,False
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:21:53.251000+00:00,"Folks, the bounty for reverting back to 61 YES is worth so much more, and is up until market close!
+https://manifold.ma",hold,flip,False
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,hold,True
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T03:09:28.966000+00:00,"Simply double your bet every time you lose. Then the probability of winning approaches 100% as you continue to play, and",flip,flip,True
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:34:17.349000+00:00,"discrepancy is in scipy 
+Blue: Discrepencies values for 100_000 draw of uniformly distributed 2d vars between 0-400, ea",flip,flip,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,"Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor.
+This market has nothing to do with predi",flip,flip,True
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:07:09.219000+00:00,"It's similar to putting dynamically-updated limit orders at every percentage, that's like molasses that buyers on both s",flip,hold,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:12.675000+00:00,Gonna be pretty hard for those whales to get the market up against all the limit orders and then hold it to a >69% avera,flip,hold,False
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:26:16.145000+00:00,"Are you sure this is worth quitting Manifold over? I and the others are doing this for fun, we try to avoid getting emot",flip,hold,False
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:06:13.569000+00:00,"That's what I was expecting too. I started selling mine, but then I started to doubt myself and thought ""what if somebod",hold,hold,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T22:21:06.791000+00:00,I wonder too. Both Galen and Spindle seem to have been around since July 2022. Hardly newcomers.,flip,hold,False
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T21:50:09.064000+00:00,"Yes. This is why I’m confused- Eliezer’s tweet was, in my eyes,  not ambiguous- It directly satisfied the “Yes” requirem",hold,flip,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",hold,hold,True
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:43:49.088000+00:00,"Just bet the Ṁ60,170 required to make it resolve YES. Easy.",flip,hold,False
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:19:28.785000+00:00,Sounds like you want us to maximize our positive impact on the world. But attempting to maximize some quantity at all co,flip,flip,True
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:01:21.337000+00:00,"I want to thank me, myself, me, and me.",hold,hold,True
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T06:06:43.018000+00:00,Can someone describe what is going on here?,hold,hold,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-10T04:05:36.660000+00:00,"Given that I'm now way overinvested in this market lol because I have to tune my bot, is this the median of the bet amou",hold,hold,True
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T02:25:23.634000+00:00,"I'm enjoying reading the popular comments as this adventure continues over time, but I'm also worried how much mana I ha",hold,hold,True
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T06:27:05.816000+00:00,"we also have square feet, there's actually an infinite number of them, if you think of the world as an onion with infini",hold,flip,False
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T11:27:12.363000+00:00,"Update at 60 points. I'm not advocating these metrics, but if you are basing your odds on them, I think you should updat",flip,flip,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:42:32.750000+00:00,The gap has narrowed by 10 points in the last few hours!,hold,flip,False
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:08:04.273000+00:00,"you can check if the question is edited by looking at the history (3 dots, more info)",flip,hold,False
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:07:37.526000+00:00,"What are you basing your opinion on? I tried scipy discrepancy, but it didn't give much info in favour of No. Can you gi",flip,hold,False
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:40:23.460000+00:00,Tipping was removed a few weeks ago. Almost everybody hates this decision and wants them back. The best way to send mana,flip,hold,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,flip,hold,False
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,flip,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:36:14.124000+00:00,True. Nobody should ever donate to charity because eventually one of their generations of children may decide not to hav,flip,hold,False
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:57:13.718000+00:00,"Ah, how the knife turns to cut its own wielder.",flip,flip,True
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:23:22.015000+00:00,"Unfortunately, I agree the case against YES is weak. Eliezer did 'write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by th",hold,flip,False
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-16T01:33:56.375000+00:00,"THANK YOU TO ALL PARTICIPANTS, HOPE YOU ALL HAD FUN!",hold,flip,False
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T01:08:17.398000+00:00,There is that possibility but my guess is they won't risk that much money for profit the wealthiest of the 2 whales prob,flip,flip,True
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T09:07:03.156000+00:00,"I have crunched some numbers in order to provide some information to all market participants:
+Current average: 62.23
+R",flip,hold,False
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T01:09:53.135000+00:00,"I think the first hammer is partly a show-of-force. It discourages people from buying YES from sheer fear. Whereas M10k,",flip,hold,False
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T01:57:55.843000+00:00,"The point is that you buy YES shares to eventually cache them out. If I'm not mistaken, this would work as long as there",flip,flip,True
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:26:25.447000+00:00,eliezer himself thinks there's equally good arguments for and against. he constructed the tweet to make that the case. I,hold,hold,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:13:33.701000+00:00,"one account, even if you ignore him when deciding which side won right now you need 20 people.
+I checked last few trade",hold,hold,True
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,"Evan has forced our hand. 
+From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,hold,True
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T03:30:12.301000+00:00,eliezer i get that a sufficiently smarter entity will always be able to outsmart be in creative ways i wasn’t able to pr,hold,hold,True
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:30:57.613000+00:00,It doesn’t matter. The new year passed over an hour ago. This will resolve NO.,flip,flip,True

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h12.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T09:42:12.691000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I don't think this is accurate.,increase,decrease,False,True,268.5169,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-16T01:00:33.498000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,Exactly what I was thinking. There's no way there are more eyes than feet when pretty much every species has either the ,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,hold,hold,True,True,417.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:50:35.228000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,be the change you wish to see in securities,decrease,hold,False,True,780.1176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:45:25.590000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","me: 
+sees spindle makin a fat 10k bet
+  ""oh god surely he will stop now""
+spindle:",increase,decrease,False,True,467.7611,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T11:31:17.517000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I suppose we can ping yes voters with less than 60 and offer mana so they raise to 61 or more?
+The double defecting thi",hold,increase,False,True,7475.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:16:15.620000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Spindle I have the perfect market for you. The haters say it's stupid to vote YES, but with enough COURAGE it's a guara",increase,increase,True,True,36346.6108,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:42:11.670000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",i really want to know how you talk in real life,flip,hold,False,True,21288.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T02:09:26.681000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Alright YES bettors, we're going to need to collude to get this to resolve YES. How do we get rid of the large limit ord",flip,increase,False,True,743.1068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:51:02.387000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I had this 390 value stuck in my head for some reason, but going back to the published coordinate: 
+- minimum x,y and m",increase,decrease,False,True,152.4136,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-04T06:54:40.849000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,After this is over you are being put under constant supervision. ❤,hold,decrease,False,True,1470.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-08T08:20:01.615000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"So you'd need to watch 30 movies in 8 days? If you watched your average of 3 per day, you'd still need 10 days... this c",increase,decrease,False,True,48.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T20:05:26.845000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Given that 
+NO
+ is currently winning (and on track to win even if the market stays at its current percentage), especia",flip,increase,False,True,1341.4888,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:04:46.158000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",not noise + noise = noise. So he can't have added too much jitter (or whatever) as otherwise both sets will be uniform.,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:48:30.258000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac, Jack and Marcus sold all their shares last minute and bought YES that would be wild.",flip,hold,False,True,54.2067,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T23:24:50.106000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Forgot to update: before bed (about 8 hours ago) i was able to place limit orders of NO for 1mana at 98% and 99%. just n,hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T11:25:45.074000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","ok my bad I said big, it isn’t.",decrease,decrease,True,True,544.3606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T16:00:57.664000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Well on a particular sample it is not a no-op, just like you mentioned for the uniform distr. It is not somewhat more no",hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:13:24.405000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Cool thanks! I don't think diff entropy is meaningful here. The input to that scipy method is samples of a probability d,increase,hold,False,True,278.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:55:57.745000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,I will switch my position to whichever side makes the highest offer,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:22:50.235000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Of course this market has a 12% chance of resolving YES. What possible other reason could there be for this market to be,hold,increase,False,True,10.5461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:48.006000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Fear our YES alliance, where we will make a profit even from other bettors with strategies that are mathematically guara",increase,increase,True,True,3754.1354,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:39:30.631000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Unfortunately not. The ""diff"" part is because we have switched from discrete to continuous, and so the standard formula ",increase,hold,False,True,129.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:01:41.081000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,That is just how i trade... if you don't want that to happen... then i will stop that,decrease,decrease,True,True,45.1219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T04:03:29.469000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",will we see any counterwhales to fight Marcus and jack??,flip,hold,False,True,441.218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:41:07.010000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","the fact that you're writing this comment just shows you were never a real no voter in the first place, it's not about t",hold,increase,False,True,439.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-06T22:46:39.409000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","While I'm buying NO shares, I think the move for a YES resolution is to popularize the term ""rationalussy"" such that Eli",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:28:28.399000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",It wants samples of probabilities.,increase,hold,False,True,278.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:52:39.423000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",500k YES shares what an absolute barbarian,increase,hold,False,True,2214.5242,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:19:48.728000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I used to try preprocessing stuff like ""wrapping the whole picture by 200 to the right and up"", because CD says it has a",increase,decrease,False,True,741.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:20:45.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Unless they use it to bribe for M1 😅,hold,hold,True,True,8005.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:49:45.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This will yield enough mana to finance 
+ ’s ventures on this app in perpetuity",hold,hold,True,True,3847.3958,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T05:13:19.683000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty easy to accidentally filter the random set. Imagine on your first run all of the dots  by chance mostly clustered,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:34:09.578000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",im slightly concerned abt how much galen is willing to commit given that his objective rn is no longer just to win a pro,flip,decrease,False,True,51.0753,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:31:48.408000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I don't think Isaac would pay the bribe without also taking the hit to his own profit.,decrease,hold,False,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:31:46.216000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the scipy discrepancy also agrees. Even though I'm still not sure what the influence of the white border should be here.,increase,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T00:47:37.263000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Thoughts:
+1) This will end up NO.  Isaac doesn't lose.
+2) Galen hasnt bet in over 12 hours now.  He's probably been br",flip,flip,True,True,330.7236,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T13:12:07.090000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","sure, in general. But for this particular market, where the porcentaje itself it's (part of) the resolution criteria, se",decrease,decrease,True,True,336.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:30:37.773000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I
+f I have a list of discrete probabilities [0.2, 0.4, 0.4]. Entropy is purely a property of [0.2, 0.4, 0.4]. You can s",increase,hold,False,True,278.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:46:18.568000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Galen is the chosen one.  He will lay waste to the Manifold aristocracy and destroy their mana hoards!,flip,increase,False,True,3666.5516,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:35:54.310000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","join the correct side of the fight brother, you could be a valuable ally",increase,flip,False,True,9347.5104,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:38:45.631000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",PLEASE CRUSH THEM WITH YOUR WALLET MY SAVIOR,hold,increase,False,True,21929.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-04T06:37:02.028000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I just bought yes when I saw the price drop because I assumed there were good reasons it was at 70% before... but I sure,flip,flip,True,True,10.0488,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T12:26:26.614000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Or selling some of it up to 71.,hold,decrease,False,True,1493.8922,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T15:37:20.805000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",It shouldn't be to difficult to calculate. The data can be extracted very easily from the website. No scripting needed.,increase,hold,False,True,137.1649,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T16:35:07.735000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","King Isaac the Miserly
+He sits on his throne of gold and greed He cares not for the people’s need He plays with their f",flip,flip,True,True,4088.4913,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:07:25.054000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yeah that works. Anything that allows you to tell the sequence from the image,increase,hold,False,True,65.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:06:29.526000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The problem is that the market will resolve yes,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:33:39.562000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It is a small mind that thinks of profit and victory all the time. I live for the chaos of battle.,flip,hold,False,True,63485.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:59:03.438000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,We have 1000 mana bounty for no,flip,increase,False,True,32.2148,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:35:25.017000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,If I risk the hundreds of dollars it would be for the chance to become a mana whale and get a big bonus immediately on w,flip,decrease,False,True,1034.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T12:48:36.870000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",At that point it will be a question on who can move the market faster from YES to NO but that's only if they aren't goin,flip,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T13:12:48.080000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,are the two bots acceleration and bot factory or laboratory not active on this market/ Would've either made a lot of mon,flip,decrease,False,True,128.6883,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T09:13:44.454000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Hash digest of my thoughts for posterity: f6d10a61ad1d0d8654cd7a76ea029d20568ef085e53a785d30556e9c646db7ad,increase,hold,False,True,2200.0272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:21:08.146000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the rate is fast. Not everyone can spend so much time monitoring this market.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:35:44.810000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Is this market the most liquid market ever?,hold,hold,True,True,6872.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T21:30:15.432000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Markets like this make me wish there were flash loans like on the eth chain,hold,hold,True,True,9200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:29:56.138000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I hopped you'd reveal the transformation after 40 😢,decrease,decrease,True,True,44.0238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:01:21.506000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If it stays at 3%, NO will have a mathematically guaranteed victory in 4.5 hours.",decrease,increase,False,True,6008.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles... 
+as if",hold,increase,False,True,22979.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:16:19.800000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,all I know is I'm rushing to liquidate all my other investments to take Caleb's free money! I wish I hadn't bought so mu,increase,decrease,False,True,4485.4332,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:02:01.948000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Don't take feathers lightly. They can weight more than iron when in a sufficient quantity.,decrease,hold,False,True,10273.328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T19:09:01.676000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Rationalussy is boring and not funny, but it's not sexist. Also see Shelvacu getting rationalussy from a man.",increase,decrease,False,True,861.3715,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:26:20.574000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",what’s the average in the ~1.5h since the last update below? I eyeballed it at 1.5% in my formula,decrease,hold,False,True,544.3606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",decrease,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,decrease,increase,False,True,19662.9049,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:58:44.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","It will only regress to the mean if the difference was due to random chance. Because this is a no-op, transforming canno",decrease,hold,False,True,1562.1637,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T12:05:11.412000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Digit anomaly scores, using raw data listing and compared to a uniform generation over 100,100-500,500
+Error bars = 1.9",increase,decrease,False,True,12.4136,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-05T17:45:33.872000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,Only one! There are multiple eyes per atom.,hold,hold,True,True,1274.7949,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-13T22:43:46.399000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Aug 13: The Making of Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty,hold,hold,True,True,1228.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:11:46.735000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(Exaggerated for comedic effect, I'm pretty sure YES is still winning)",increase,decrease,False,True,1614.7344,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:28:07.044000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Maybe these bounties are doing things the wrong way.
+Maybe to encourage yes we should encourage people to buy >=61 mana",hold,decrease,False,True,61.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T16:52:24.437000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","LMFAO! 🤡  This is not like in the football game ""the ball was over plane line, but did players ball sack graze touch gro",hold,flip,False,True,70.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-10T06:01:57.953000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Food: Ṁ200
+Data: Ṁ150
+Rent: Ṁ800
+Rationalussy shares: Ṁ82,794
+Utility: Ṁ150
+someone who is good at the manifold ple",decrease,decrease,True,True,82903.8661,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T11:34:16.133000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Wait, you're heavy into the NO side? Why are you talking about defending 21%?",decrease,decrease,True,True,617.3257,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T23:06:33.014000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The meta game here is that OP probably sought to make a fun market by making it quite balanced. The transformation(s) ar,increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:32:53.228000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'm gonna flip a coin and if heads I'll put in 100 MOAR,increase,hold,False,True,60082.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T04:43:07.198000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Hey Eliezer, are you Qualy the lightbulb? Keeping in mind that Qualy wrote this tweet: 
+https://twitter.com/QualyThe/st",hold,decrease,False,True,540.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,decrease,decrease,True,True,225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:16:58.361000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"(Tags are really buggy right now, making sure they see it.)",decrease,hold,False,True,6.5013,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T13:06:54.372000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Exactly. But they spread points out along whatever circumference they are already on.,increase,hold,False,True,279.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T03:41:50.502000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Thought of another fun one, lets see what happens:
+https://manifold.markets/AlexRockwell/this-market-resolves-against-t",hold,hold,True,True,635.6755,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T15:30:47.479000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Come on 
+ , drop the hammer on 
+ already.
+All that free money there for the taking;
+but people are going to pull the",flip,increase,False,True,8712.0231,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T00:25:45.264000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",That's because there's a limit order for NO that Galen was buying into. The actual asymmetry is only around 4:1.,increase,hold,False,True,13946.1793,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:38:15.882000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","well, the resulting threshold is very sensitive to aproximarions. I’m using the precise time and average shared by 
+ in",decrease,hold,False,True,544.3606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:02:20.573000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Can you share a link to how to calculate the discrepancy? I'm not familiar with the term.
+Edit: is it 
+https://en.wiki",flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T10:55:36.911000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",(blue are uniform distributions in a box and red is red and green is green),flip,hold,False,True,4.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:07:38.365000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Team Yes's motto is ""maximizing shareholder value through friendship and ponies""!",flip,hold,False,True,93492.4658,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:12:48.755000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","1. Was that ever even specified to be the intent of the question, or did people just read that into it? I don't think an",hold,increase,False,True,9.9814,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:59:44+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It says I can trust you right here!,hold,increase,False,True,9033.6091,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T23:04:09.210000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I think this will be a fun market:,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-07-17T02:57:34.465000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","What if he posts a link to this very market? The url doesn't have the word ""rationalussy"" in it, so it could be argued t",hold,decrease,False,True,28.7898,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:39:51.053000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Good work! Now you're eligible for this one!
+https://manifold.markets/nikki/bounty-for-defecting-to-yes-on-the?play=tru",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-06T07:11:11.164000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Come on Darj, pace is looking good, need more 4 or 5 movie days.",decrease,increase,False,True,671.611,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T22:59:29.509000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","OK - knowing about this hidden box, at a 371 by 371, then random would have a 7.7% of y-range being 320 after 29 points.",flip,increase,False,True,13.3635,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-01T19:50:12.603000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",can also mouseover the close date above the title.,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:21:47.305000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,If i got like 1000 USD I'd be dancing for days wow you guys are making crazy money,decrease,hold,False,True,360.2579,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,hold,decrease,False,True,12850.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:37:46.637000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",So thanks for the donation from that guy who was buying yes above 70 yesterday,decrease,hold,False,True,9218.2899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h24.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:44:01.640000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",??? The only reason this market became popular was because Isaac didn't want Galen to donate lol,hold,hold,True,True,10097.0229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,decrease,True,True,1513.3765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:52:31.083000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For likelihood ratio, I just eyeball the relative heights of the histogram boxes that the red and green dashed lines fal",decrease,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T01:32:33.674000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","<EDIT: he fixed a typo in 3.>. I get 3.7% (~7% two-sided) for that, like your p suggests",increase,hold,False,True,3651.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T23:33:00.969000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Not sure if it matters tho. I'm pretty sure banned accounts can still bet on markets, they just cannot create new questi",increase,decrease,False,True,239.0533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:31:38.720000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me: *finally gets brave enough to place a big bet on NO in this market*
+Spindle: *appears*",increase,increase,True,True,1869.7608,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T08:26:21.090000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","My guess is that the market will crash to zero in the next few hours and we will have a winner today. 
+This is not fina",flip,increase,False,True,529.0627,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:20:09.410000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"What bounties could you make if you go broke anyway, gamer? LOL",hold,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T15:47:47.964000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",yeah after the 40 points I would also vote to speed this up. And I would also like two more points now but that is becau,flip,decrease,False,True,7.5356,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:15:46.024000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"after the Eliezer market and now this market (if it resolves NO), you're the new Robin Hood of manifold",flip,hold,False,True,50.1972,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:38:42.621000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will switch if all YES contributors pledge to withdraw their current donation pledges 
+(Just kidding, its great you g",flip,decrease,False,True,4214.2519,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T05:17:46.833000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","green is more clustered, red is more spread out; the size makes it more likely that one is more uniform than the other",increase,hold,False,True,667.892,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:18:52.021000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I think it's very reasonable to not want to participate in markets like these, since you're correct, they don't really c",decrease,hold,False,True,9033.6091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:14:23.939000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not so much right now, but when people are trying to keep the price at 68 or 69 it is very plausible for this market to ",increase,hold,False,True,5035.514,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T18:26:11.106000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,can give the creator 24h to resolve but yeah after that mods can resolve YES,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T22:03:30.383000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The market's already at 79%, seems like NO whaling still has more profit opportunity! Join the team of the profitable an",flip,increase,False,True,431.3629,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T19:30:10.731000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Eliezer, please make a tweet with the word ""rationalussy"" at one minute past midnight lmao.",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-12T00:23:06.876000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You should have a market on of any of the movies you watched are considered good.,hold,hold,True,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:08:31.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There's an ever so slightly upward trend. WE can do it, folks.",flip,hold,False,True,408.1517,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:06:50.475000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"There are more exoplanets than there are insects. Estimates vary, but the 
+current best estimate
+ seems to be around 1",increase,increase,True,True,1000.2769,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:58.727000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty scary. Feels like the only one pushing for NO. The percentage just keeps climbing and I might not see the next ba,decrease,decrease,True,True,1313.3765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-09T02:48:27.284000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Mammals are 
+nothing
+ in this market. A whisper of an echo of a joke.",hold,decrease,False,True,2850.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T21:34:39.917000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The comment below where I called it „utterly impossible“ and gave the four graphs. I can explain it more and make an upd,increase,increase,True,True,3651.3714,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T21:26:24.761000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For the uniform random set, did you make any decisions downstream of generating the set? Did you see the points or run a",increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:54:27.219000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Clearly the TRAUNCHE power is not enough and NO will prevail!,decrease,flip,False,True,2143.945,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,hold,False,True,575.2945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:33:20.733000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The earth is 
+491,000,000,00 feet
+ away from the sun.  That’s a 
+lot
+ of feet…",increase,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:15:00.023000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I think that discussion would not lead anywhere. If you wish do ignore it, do so. Here are the just the other two:",hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:19:28.785000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Sounds like you want us to maximize our positive impact on the world. But attempting to maximize some quantity at all co,flip,decrease,False,True,9366.9962,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-01T21:30:16.273000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Who is brave enough to bring this up to 69%?,decrease,increase,False,True,63392.3931,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T13:59:40.360000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","how 
+ looked formulating that comment:",flip,hold,False,True,2600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T16:10:51.998000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yeah, it's probably due to the high rate of trades, comments, etc. coming in.",increase,hold,False,True,1001.6029,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:56:40.986000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This might actually be a better argument for NO than the others that have been put forward, but I also think it's a very",hold,flip,False,True,9.9814,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:46:08.761000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",It was 54% yes lead a day ago but then it spent almost 24hrs in the 30-40% range and it because almost even before spind,increase,decrease,False,True,5329.4042,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:52:03.305000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I just realized something important. We need to remember that due to rounding, we are not dealing with a continuous rand",hold,decrease,False,True,1540.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T14:11:06.547000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Very professional! (As mentioned before, it may produce a slightly wrong answer if it’s close. But as Alex showed that r",flip,hold,False,True,1008.2786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T20:59:01.172000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Only costs 692 to get it up to 71%,decrease,flip,False,True,9218.2899,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-11T15:34:05.922000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Manage to get anything watched over the weekend?,decrease,hold,False,True,1395.7275,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:37:50.801000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Do movies watched on Sep 16 count?,increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:36:14.124000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",True. Nobody should ever donate to charity because eventually one of their generations of children may decide not to hav,flip,decrease,False,True,13076.2615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:28:45.384000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"yes side will give you a better bounty than whatever NO is offering, don't listen to them!",increase,increase,True,True,30017.8164,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T16:41:37.725000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",about the discrepancy vs the gap. I think that taking a Bayesian approach and taking into account what seems probable as,increase,decrease,False,True,776.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:06:06.922000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Get any friends you have to sign up. M500 + M250 for the referral. 100 people was enough to break the first hammer.,flip,increase,False,True,4045.5954,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:09:48.125000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I'm waiting for someone to point out that ""rationalussy"" isn't actually a word, so even if Eliezer tweets that string of",hold,hold,True,True,879.5409,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:51:48.843000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I figure all central tendencies and dispersion kinda point at the same things indeed. Unbelievably, I have things to do ",increase,decrease,False,True,202.4136,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T10:16:09.986000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Currently a Cat has control of this market.  What else would you expect at 3am!,flip,hold,False,True,2924.6572,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-01-20T12:38:11.833000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Help, I am out of manna and I need more rationalussy shares",hold,increase,False,True,504.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:29:28.510000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I know this may be inefficient, but I must redeem myself. I've been feeling guilty ever since I was discovered to be a 
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:37:13.133000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,We are winning! Hold the line!,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:13:30.946000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",what's the x axis in these 2 plots?,flip,hold,False,True,37.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:44:57.408000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,why would you bribe a yes holder with less than 60 bet?,flip,decrease,False,True,8005.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:40:26.495000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If it's non-obvious, I'll use the API as necessary. Not gonna count pixels, though now that you mention it that might ac",flip,hold,False,True,9366.9962,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T21:37:28.137000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,In this situation I actually think it’s ideal to be served last lmao,flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:42:54.215000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I'm down to get into fermi stuff but would first like to hear from Pat about what the scope is. Is ""the world"" not our w",increase,decrease,False,True,711.4313,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:03.509000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The bounty will only pay if it resolves no, which it will",flip,increase,False,True,33.2148,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:13.535000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Great, I just added it to LZ's bounty post",hold,increase,False,True,2225.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:41:56.389000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",btw curious for the mystery characteristics reveal after this is settled,flip,hold,False,True,97.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T12:47:00.523000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","YES shares are cheaper, and there's plenty of time to turn the market around. Surely someone's willing to take the risk.",decrease,flip,False,True,9.5637,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:37:37.462000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I want to see correlation numbers between those metrics to see if they quantify different things or all catch up on the ,increase,hold,False,True,741.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T04:09:01.793000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Isaac in particular has a reputation of caring a lot about resolving correctly. If you want to bet on your stated belief,hold,decrease,False,True,9281.3319,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:12:24.153000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",try looking at ((max(x)-min(x)) + (max(y)-min(y))/2) as a function of box size for a random distribution,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T14:20:04.308000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Tits vs. Ass peaked when the creator was possibly dead,hold,decrease,False,True,2275.2077,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:27:05.141000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Is he trying to make it resolve yes right now?,decrease,decrease,True,True,367.7024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T02:29:28.482000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",bold of u to assume this absolute menace has biological needs,increase,increase,True,True,189.3513,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-11T17:01:10.291000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Darj is absorbed in a movie, please come back later",decrease,hold,False,True,1830.6811,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2468.5106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:39:30.631000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Unfortunately not. The ""diff"" part is because we have switched from discrete to continuous, and so the standard formula ",increase,hold,False,True,129.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:28:27.212000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I offer m69 to extend the close date to 2023 to give the yes forces more time and to increase the amount of drama. This ,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:31:26.020000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"As long as we are all negotiating with financial terrorists, I will accept a bribe of 1000 mana to not report the market",decrease,hold,False,True,2193.8923,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T20:12:44.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I refuse to do any due diligence,hold,decrease,False,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T13:13:22.937000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",i have turned my brain off. holding position,hold,hold,True,True,665.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T04:49:51.717000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Will mods act against alt accounts being made to trade on this market, if those are found?",increase,decrease,False,True,950.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:31:15.174000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm also just using others' updates and eyeballing, though I reckon it's been closer to 1.2 than 1.5 since then.",decrease,decrease,True,True,3614.6093,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:43:11.667000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",What are the current pieces of evidence you think are strong in favour of Yes (past 75%)?,increase,decrease,False,True,253.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:39:28.454000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","> How should we read this?
+I don't see anything on this one either 😂 
+Maybe someone will.
+> Why is there a wider whit",hold,hold,True,True,437.0178,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T19:23:40.922000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"You can see the mana amount and number of shares in the your trades tab, and divide. All mana amounts are rounded but if",decrease,hold,False,True,6296.028,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-05T16:19:39.813000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,These atoms have lower parts too.,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T16:47:38.309000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Sharing a bit of my work. I was focusing on several metrics that all rely on the assumption that the data was NOT shuffl,increase,decrease,False,True,776.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,0.2545,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T22:41:53.758000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The problem is, I can say the same about red. Multiple, uncorrelated metrics, chosen with minimal cherry-picking, all wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,1752.8074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:40:42.216000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,and any others who have taken Evan's deal: I commit to paying double whatever you got from Evan if you buy 61 mana of ye,decrease,increase,False,True,39590.476,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T14:46:45.424000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",It's once again a good time to buy YES shares.,hold,increase,False,True,99.01,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:30:19.235000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",is literally the first example. How can I make this more clear?,increase,increase,True,True,3651.3714,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-11T22:56:09.175000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,is my sister. She did indeed join today and she asked me what markets to bet on. I gave her this one as a suggestion.,increase,hold,False,True,111.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:33:39.562000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It is a small mind that thinks of profit and victory all the time. I live for the chaos of battle.,flip,hold,False,True,63485.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:27:56.766000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So are angles (not turns, just the movement direction of the ""mouse""), 0.05 on the KS test.",decrease,increase,False,True,1623.7756,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T23:39:20.995000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","also~ from my understanding, human-placed points haven't recieved any randomization/entropy, so one of the colors should",flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:14:29.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Reminder that if YES wins, >1m mana is removed from circulation and 10k+ is donated to charity, whereas if NO wins, ~1m ",flip,increase,False,True,12156.2615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:59:03.438000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,We have 1000 mana bounty for no,flip,increase,False,True,32.2148,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:39:12.404000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Interestingly, Evan has a 35k loan from Bayesian, this creates some new possibilities for market dynamics. Maybe Evan an",hold,decrease,False,True,2225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T03:14:46.725000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"thank you Mr (Mrs, Xrs?) Gheenes",hold,hold,True,True,2069.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,decrease,decrease,True,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:59:44+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It says I can trust you right here!,hold,increase,False,True,9033.6091,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T23:34:19.952000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I remember when 
+ would give people high-interest loans despite being banned. Good times.",hold,hold,True,True,112702.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:28:38.247000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,But no attacker is going to spend more on no than necessary.,flip,hold,False,True,3999.9843,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:41:31.254000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",in python: scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy,decrease,hold,False,True,1213.3765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,decrease,decrease,True,True,92.6733,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:33:40.079000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",live image of you concocting the most incorrect statement ever made to justify buying NO in this market,flip,decrease,False,True,13001.2615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T03:11:32.268000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Yeah I don't think that holds up. Otherwise gamblers wouldn't go further and further into debt; they'd realize their mis,hold,flip,False,True,9033.6091,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T20:46:16.562000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Some whale is gonna do this seconds before it expires,decrease,hold,False,True,3381.9493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h48.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T06:27:05.816000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"we also have square feet, there's actually an infinite number of them, if you think of the world as an onion with infini",hold,increase,False,True,65.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T10:26:51.567000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Current count comes to 141 if I'm going by the 93 total from Aug 30 + the 48 watched since. Does that align with your cu,decrease,decrease,True,True,1580.7275,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,decrease,decrease,True,True,225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T09:13:44.454000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Hash digest of my thoughts for posterity: f6d10a61ad1d0d8654cd7a76ea029d20568ef085e53a785d30556e9c646db7ad,increase,hold,False,True,2200.0272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T16:05:22.476000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You have to shift perspective from the uniform distribution to the distribution over 100 points drawn uniformly. They ar,increase,increase,True,True,472.6291,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:37:22.776000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",What is the definition of rationalussy? This has been the biggest mystery of the market.,increase,hold,False,True,2013.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:36:14.124000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",True. Nobody should ever donate to charity because eventually one of their generations of children may decide not to hav,flip,decrease,False,True,13076.2615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",hold,decrease,False,True,509623.6977,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T09:07:03.156000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I have crunched some numbers in order to provide some information to all market participants:
+Current average: 62.23
+R",flip,hold,False,True,268.5169,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:43:49.088000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Just bet the Ṁ60,170 required to make it resolve YES. Easy.",flip,increase,False,True,743.1068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T01:08:17.398000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",There is that possibility but my guess is they won't risk that much money for profit the wealthiest of the 2 whales prob,flip,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:46:24.605000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",im waiting 4 it 2 get a bit lower,increase,decrease,False,True,50082.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T06:02:31.839000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'll believe for as long as is necessary,decrease,increase,False,True,1647.1188,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:21:27.043000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Another perspective. Let’s say greens is human. It had the transform applied. Applying the transform a second time is ef,increase,decrease,False,True,472.6291,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:23:22.015000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Unfortunately, I agree the case against YES is weak. Eliezer did 'write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by th",hold,flip,False,True,1340.739,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:37:55.799000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,There is no opportunity cost and a non-zero chance of profit. I don't see any reason not to put a limit order at 10%.,flip,increase,False,True,2045.2756,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:01:03.933000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"if I don't sell I make more than 1000, if I sell I lose 2000+.
+Your offer isn't worth it for me, it's over 3000 mana ne",hold,hold,True,True,9055.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:01:21.337000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","I want to thank me, myself, me, and me.",hold,hold,True,True,954.0866,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor.
+This market has nothing to do with predi",flip,decrease,False,True,16030.9049,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:18:43.075000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"fwiw, I found myself in a similar postion. I ended up defecting and voluntarily returned the 50 Mana bounty I originally",increase,flip,False,True,0.9431,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T23:01:02.484000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",In that case they can switch their strategy to buying it up to 71%.  That one has a free rider problem but no incentive ,decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:13:33.701000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"one account, even if you ignore him when deciding which side won right now you need 20 people.
+I checked last few trade",hold,decrease,False,True,9355.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T04:27:17.957000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","If you're going for maximum ambiguity, you should make sure to misspell it, perhaps with rare Unicode characters that lo",increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:46:43.291000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","maybe i'll do one of those ""limit orders""
+U DONT KNOWQ",increase,decrease,False,True,50082.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T07:54:27.003000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Only 6 minutes left for bribes!,decrease,hold,False,True,16453.9776,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:19:28.785000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Sounds like you want us to maximize our positive impact on the world. But attempting to maximize some quantity at all co,flip,decrease,False,True,9366.9962,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T17:54:19.645000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",they cancel together with my NO share into one mana,increase,hold,False,True,57759.1161,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,hold,True,True,111312.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:12.675000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Gonna be pretty hard for those whales to get the market up against all the limit orders and then hold it to a >69% avera,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:00:55.083000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"idk man i want mira to win really bad
+underdog vibes",decrease,decrease,True,True,367.3066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T11:27:12.363000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Update at 60 points. I'm not advocating these metrics, but if you are basing your odds on them, I think you should updat",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:38:25.463000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think the close time and EY timezone are the most obvious, and in general it makes sense to assume that people in the ",increase,hold,False,True,1763.0881,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,0.2545,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:27:51.132000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If this market resolves N/A I am personally breaking into Conflux's house, logging onto their Discord account, and askin",increase,increase,True,True,402730.068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-16T01:33:56.375000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"THANK YOU TO ALL PARTICIPANTS, HOPE YOU ALL HAD FUN!",hold,hold,True,True,21880.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:07:37.526000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","What are you basing your opinion on? I tried scipy discrepancy, but it didn't give much info in favour of No. Can you gi",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:03.366000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",damn. I am away from my computer for the next 8h. Can’t even update on the recent batch. Let alone on the next one.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:27:56.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was able to reproduce the average using the data linked by 
+ below (link no longer working), here's my script:
+https",decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:36:12.639000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,DM me on Discord for Team NO's offers.,increase,hold,False,True,1706.2423,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:26:16.145000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Are you sure this is worth quitting Manifold over? I and the others are doing this for fun, we try to avoid getting emot",flip,decrease,False,True,10706.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T15:57:47.609000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"honestly not sure what this market truly is asking , but why did you bet so much on it?",increase,decrease,False,True,14.0533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:18:55.260000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Am I right in assuming new points come every hour when you are awake?,increase,hold,False,True,35.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T01:09:53.135000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I think the first hammer is partly a show-of-force. It discourages people from buying YES from sheer fear. Whereas M10k,",flip,decrease,False,True,3816.1874,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:53:35.066000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","dude this is all for fun, my bet is 5 Mana 😃 This is not a serious prediction market",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T03:45:10.393000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this is such a good post I'm selling some No shares. Big Foot 😂😂😂,increase,decrease,False,True,697.927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T03:09:28.966000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Simply double your bet every time you lose. Then the probability of winning approaches 100% as you continue to play, and",flip,increase,False,True,94664.4587,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-10T04:05:36.660000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Given that I'm now way overinvested in this market lol because I have to tune my bot, is this the median of the bet amou",hold,decrease,False,True,468.4221,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:48:39.295000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Oh, this is awkward, but my current shirt is actually grey. That profile pic is a little out of date.",increase,hold,False,True,280523.3276,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T03:20:30.210000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Plus or minus a few minutes uncertainty, a NO victory is now mathematically guaranteed.",decrease,increase,False,True,3553.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T12:47:00.523000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","YES shares are cheaper, and there's plenty of time to turn the market around. Surely someone's willing to take the risk.",flip,flip,True,True,9.5637,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T22:21:06.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I wonder too. Both Galen and Spindle seem to have been around since July 2022. Hardly newcomers.,flip,hold,False,True,74.3707,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:07:09.219000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"It's similar to putting dynamically-updated limit orders at every percentage, that's like molasses that buyers on both s",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:02:01.948000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Don't take feathers lightly. They can weight more than iron when in a sufficient quantity.,flip,hold,False,True,10273.328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:26:45.348000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Well ~400M here and ~1000M in the other market 😅. I could only bribe you with ~50M, since my stakes in that other market",increase,hold,False,True,3651.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:07.901000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Are you just saying this to get people to bet the market up so you can buy more NO?,flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T03:30:12.301000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",eliezer i get that a sufficiently smarter entity will always be able to outsmart be in creative ways i wasn’t able to pr,hold,hold,True,True,2930.8165,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:34:17.349000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","discrepancy is in scipy 
+Blue: Discrepencies values for 100_000 draw of uniformly distributed 2d vars between 0-400, ea",flip,hold,False,True,37.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:53:43.393000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",do you mind holding off on revealing the transformations? Working through the analysis,decrease,hold,False,True,1421.8721,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:41:53.636000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"it shows you the new probability after your bet, so if you check that you should be fine. You're not going to get it to ",increase,hold,False,True,2904.827,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T06:29:14.969000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is huge, it was at 60 last night!",hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:35:19.479000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,This will be 70% in two hours.,decrease,increase,False,True,2468.5106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Evan has forced our hand. 
+From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:24:53.346000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,The community guidelines don't say anything about soliciting bribes!,decrease,hold,False,True,15953.9776,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:19:21.279000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"hmmm I had been operating under the assumption that ""in the world"" meant Earth. Is that not the case?",increase,decrease,False,True,610.4313,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:54:25.652000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","You can still get regression to the mean on a statistical no-op. Let's say you sampled some random data, and the mean of",decrease,decrease,True,True,1562.1637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T20:21:03.067000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I like the idea as well, but I have extremely limited free time for the next 6 hours.",decrease,decrease,True,True,898.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:22:51.066000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","yeah alex, you should go all in 😁",increase,increase,True,True,3157.5104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T05:27:19.127000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","That remains to be seen. All joking aside, I have nothing against Buttocks, but the particular people who have bet NO on",decrease,hold,False,True,1942.9583,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:35:12.686000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I just checked how often the quadrants switch between points and got a moderately anomalous result, p=0.186.",decrease,decrease,True,True,816.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",hold,hold,True,True,6872.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T02:25:23.634000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I'm enjoying reading the popular comments as this adventure continues over time, but I'm also worried how much mana I ha",hold,decrease,False,True,2400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-06T17:08:28.182000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","is all-in, after winning gamble market after gamble market. Can anyone stop him??",increase,increase,True,True,211.6461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2468.5106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:46:43.442000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yea. I still don't weight this metric much as I don't understand it.,increase,decrease,False,True,218.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:05.327000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it's that much of a worry. I'd say Isaac is trustworthy. ish.,hold,decrease,False,True,13.9176,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:43:27.174000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, this account is where most of that mana came from in the first place.",decrease,hold,False,True,10393.3874,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:16:19.787000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw another one earlier, 
+. That account actually has a bet history though",hold,hold,True,True,112725.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T05:01:34.304000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""the one with your name on it, no alts""",increase,hold,False,True,2033.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T06:06:43.018000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Can someone describe what is going on here?,hold,hold,True,True,16000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:23:00.303000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,trying to lose that trustworthyish badge are we?,decrease,decrease,True,True,2193.8923,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:35:33.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","As relevant to the ""will it be a prime number"" market, the average from now would need to be 1.874 or higher for the fin",decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T21:50:09.064000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Yes. This is why I’m confused- Eliezer’s tweet was, in my eyes,  not ambiguous- It directly satisfied the “Yes” requirem",hold,flip,False,True,1100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T16:47:38.309000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Sharing a bit of my work. I was focusing on several metrics that all rely on the assumption that the data was NOT shuffl,increase,decrease,False,True,776.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T11:35:22.747000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Been a while since the last update. Where we at?
+Edit: According to their LBd they're still watching plenty of movies, ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:40:23.460000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Tipping was removed a few weeks ago. Almost everybody hates this decision and wants them back. The best way to send mana,flip,decrease,False,True,9033.6091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:10:04.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",oh thank god I thought my NO limit orders might never be filled,decrease,hold,False,True,13.9744,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:08:04.273000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"you can check if the question is edited by looking at the history (3 dots, more info)",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:57:13.718000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Ah, how the knife turns to cut its own wielder.",flip,decrease,False,True,10273.328,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T22:37:49.743000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"clearly you can't find a logical refutation, and must resort to a rigged poll. This happens every time the feet win the ",hold,increase,False,True,95.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:06:13.569000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","That's what I was expecting too. I started selling mine, but then I started to doubt myself and thought ""what if somebod",hold,decrease,False,True,5.7462,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T22:41:53.758000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The problem is, I can say the same about red. Multiple, uncorrelated metrics, chosen with minimal cherry-picking, all wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,1752.8074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:42:32.750000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The gap has narrowed by 10 points in the last few hours!,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:21:53.251000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Folks, the bounty for reverting back to 61 YES is worth so much more, and is up until market close!
+https://manifold.ma",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T01:57:55.843000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"The point is that you buy YES shares to eventually cache them out. If I'm not mistaken, this would work as long as there",flip,hold,False,True,252.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:41.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Silly goose, you are losing by a mile",decrease,decrease,True,True,41758.6495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:30:57.613000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",It doesn’t matter. The new year passed over an hour ago. This will resolve NO.,flip,flip,True,True,5.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:26:25.447000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",eliezer himself thinks there's equally good arguments for and against. he constructed the tweet to make that the case. I,hold,decrease,False,True,2986.045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:14:22.256000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","and 
+ could both put down quite large No limit orders north of 50% if they want to sell their shares to him as incentiv",decrease,hold,False,True,1216.902,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h6.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,122 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw. 
+I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,decrease,False,True,6002.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:19:48.728000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I used to try preprocessing stuff like ""wrapping the whole picture by 200 to the right and up"", because CD says it has a",increase,decrease,False,True,741.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:15:48.780000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If it was actually resolved by geometric mean, all Team NO would have to do to win is bet it down to 0.0% at any point.",increase,decrease,False,True,5808.9413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:05:11.190000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",You can counter this strategy by putting up large Yes orders to sell your no shares!,decrease,hold,False,True,1216.902,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T17:57:44.031000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","For the sake of the species' continued existence, the solemn tone of EY's twitter must be maintained:",decrease,decrease,True,True,1006.902,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T19:16:08.732000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","We've got this, Mira! We can do it!",flip,increase,False,True,1341.4888,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:48:17.960000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","but alex, you could have BOTH, join yes and you'll see profit and help galen donate $10k",hold,hold,True,True,10097.0229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-29T09:46:32.730000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This is a badly designed market. We will never reach ""consensus"" when we have financial incentive not to.",flip,decrease,False,True,376.3429,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:56:12.582000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",DUDE CHILL OUT FOR JUST A LITTLE BIT PLEASE,increase,decrease,False,True,12253.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T08:52:51.620000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","oh sorry I said team charity I meant team charity
+team charity*
+team charity*
+team charity*
+team YES******  sorry my",increase,hold,False,True,9831.2615,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:14:09.860000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Is the idea is that if someone breaks through THAT wall, then they have enough mana to make it resolve YES and that's gi",flip,hold,False,True,0.7349,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:42:57.156000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"That's fair, I also took a break after losing 10k (mana, not USD) in a previous market.",flip,decrease,False,True,10706.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T20:54:32.773000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Fine I defected give me 1592 mana 
+Also @above its already at 62k",decrease,flip,False,True,1416.4068,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T17:34:34.781000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"YES holders have forced my hand.
+For the next 24 hours, any YES holder who sells out of this market will immediately re",hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:22:00.697000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","You explained the reason for my behavior in your own comment. They're related, and therefore appropriate to share here.",hold,hold,True,True,245805.1162,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T22:09:48.411000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I have indeed already canceled my limit order, and immediately placed back a new one :-)",hold,increase,False,True,10.5461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:05:43.320000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I'll give Ṁ50,000 for you to resolve it N/A just to piss off the whales who put a lot of effort into winning, and the wh",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:41:23.008000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yeah this definetely makes red look very suspicious. But I am still wrapping my head around how the hidden white boundar,flip,decrease,False,True,4.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T10:16:09.986000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Currently a Cat has control of this market.  What else would you expect at 3am!,flip,hold,False,True,2924.6572,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-13T06:13:34.626000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,the music in that one is so good,hold,hold,True,True,1228.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T05:13:19.683000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty easy to accidentally filter the random set. Imagine on your first run all of the dots  by chance mostly clustered,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:46:08.994000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Thats pretty even between YES and NO, right?",increase,decrease,False,True,3141.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if 
+ said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",decrease,hold,False,True,0.3804,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,increase,increase,True,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-01-30T02:34:13.474000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","clearly has the right of it. Rationalussy is going to happen, it is merely a question of when. I fear that only when the",decrease,flip,False,True,50.4791,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:56:36.365000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,OH THEY'RE FORMING ALLIANCE FOR TEAM YES,flip,increase,False,True,41.611,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T01:59:19.662000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Again I think this explanation is screwed up, but I CAN'T EDIT ANYTHING.",increase,decrease,False,True,252.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:42:49.347000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,OK now it's really time to sleep 😴,flip,decrease,False,True,23877.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:31:54.561000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll tip you M$400 if after cashing out you agree to immediately initiate a YES position @ 69% with it. There's a 50% re,hold,decrease,False,True,94664.4587,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T22:03:30.383000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The market's already at 79%, seems like NO whaling still has more profit opportunity! Join the team of the profitable an",flip,increase,False,True,431.3629,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T16:24:49.895000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Please refund my mana, I thought there was a huge gap.",increase,decrease,False,True,171.035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T13:58:49.494000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"more, since I did not count 5 years. result:1.2775 quintillion",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:32:36.840000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",that's exactly what I assumed it was lmfao,decrease,hold,False,True,1734.1188,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:11:31.902000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",only on the human-generated set right?,hold,hold,True,True,1456.7263,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:56:40.540000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"There's someone called Mira on discord with the same profile pic, so I'd guess yes.",decrease,flip,False,True,8.6239,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T06:52:02.614000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","no that's just the initial values, solver craps out if I let it start in invalid parameter space (if a point is outside ",increase,hold,False,True,27.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:06:29.526000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The problem is that the market will resolve yes,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T13:12:48.080000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,are the two bots acceleration and bot factory or laboratory not active on this market/ Would've either made a lot of mon,flip,decrease,False,True,128.6883,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T11:54:27.654000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",my CD/WD somehow differ from yours and give a much stronger NO signal. Which box size (and position) do you assume for t,increase,decrease,False,True,441.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T13:06:54.372000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Exactly. But they spread points out along whatever circumference they are already on.,increase,hold,False,True,279.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:08:05.101000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Btw., this also changes with the chosen box size 😁",flip,hold,False,True,8.886,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:15:13.647000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,I also set up limit orders now at different percentages around that (because limit orders are FIFO),increase,increase,True,True,50.1972,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T17:28:00.329000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I think people might want 1 point at a time now,flip,hold,False,True,13.3635,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:46:17.466000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"It doesn't need to stay at exactly 69, just at least 69.",hold,hold,True,True,9033.6091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T23:30:22.884000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","assuming it's agreed green is the one with the hidden box,
+i think green is the computer, when points are placed they a",flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:09:02.836000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,What's with these BANNED accounts betting on YES? Never made a trade before either,hold,hold,True,True,112725.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:03.509000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The bounty will only pay if it resolves no, which it will",flip,increase,False,True,33.2148,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:34:26.231000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,this guy has an issue with everything,increase,decrease,False,True,399.0533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T11:25:45.074000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","ok my bad I said big, it isn’t.",flip,decrease,False,True,544.3606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T11:34:34.023000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","All they have to do is wait until the last moment and buy 50,000$M",flip,increase,False,True,3831.6298,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T23:13:20.391000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Do you have a code gist for your discrepancy calc and your entropy calc? I don't quite see how you apply entropy to this,flip,decrease,False,True,278.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:46:02.123000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Perhaps they've made peace with the fact that the entry fee isn't the same as the total cost of a night out.,decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T22:06:53.993000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Are you overcomplicating it a bit here, maybe?
+I don’t think it’s inherently true that <currency balance> says anything",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",flip,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-28T15:11:45.423000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"🦶🦶🦶
+Insects don't have feet. Insects have legs. The leg is sectioned off into parts and each have their own name.
+The ",increase,increase,True,True,135.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-12T08:25:52.671000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,haven't been able to log anything on letterboxd for weeks.,hold,decrease,False,True,5140.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:37:22.841000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,What I don't understand is why people keep buying YES at 12%. Don't they realize they can just make a limit order?,flip,hold,False,True,1988.8162,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:22:05.842000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,I DO KNOW! I'm just in a country with a weak currency ... so ... so weak,decrease,hold,False,True,360.2579,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:28:46.715000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","As Spindle says, nobody should get out now, the best times are still ahead of us.",increase,increase,True,True,274951.2336,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:24:00.555000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",do I get anything I push this past 95?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1513.3765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:02:26.247000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,yeah all good but the contraint there is server costs (because e.g. bots could place thousands of comments or etc). this,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T04:14:41.425000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Nvm - smaller box moves the line up,decrease,hold,False,True,1727.5973,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T05:16:45.803000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","small bet for someone who cracked it :P, but I believe you. DMed you",increase,hold,False,True,667.892,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T03:11:42.816000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",I feel like we keep giving tips to the YES share holders by commenting here.,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,increase,True,True,50082.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T00:33:24.551000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,but Marcus doesn't have enough mana rn to fulfill that limit order,decrease,decrease,True,True,712.1798,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:21:11.679000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I still think that trump indictment resolution was bullshit
+alas",decrease,decrease,True,True,7142.8399,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:53:13.075000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This isn't mod abuse, anyone can forge requests",decrease,hold,False,True,41756.6495,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:40:42.216000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,and any others who have taken Evan's deal: I commit to paying double whatever you got from Evan if you buy 61 mana of ye,decrease,increase,False,True,39590.476,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-22T10:05:35.858000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"yeah Tarkov just wiped, been eating up most of my free time. Getting back on the grind Wednesday.",increase,decrease,False,True,1373.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T05:06:13.373000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If team NO appears to sell out, be careful about getting greedy and bidding it up. They still retain most of their buyin",hold,hold,True,True,94664.4587,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T04:21:54.915000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I agree it's unfair. That's why I joined the NO side.,hold,hold,True,True,10393.3874,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:46:43.442000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yea. I still don't weight this metric much as I don't understand it.,increase,decrease,False,True,218.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:53:14.548000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","the thing is, what if two whales have the same idea? They're both watching it just before close, planning to buy 100,000",decrease,hold,False,True,272.885,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:56.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I thought what you just described is the exactly gamblers mentality... Lost some in the past, gambling again to try to w",hold,decrease,False,True,9924.1505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-05T17:47:03.704000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Personally I think that both this atom eye thing and the lower part foot thing are a stretch, but do we need this market",hold,decrease,False,True,957.927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-23T00:15:52.262000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I've found a market where YES team can have a little victory (totally not promoting it for my own gains) 
+https://manif",hold,increase,False,True,90.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:49:45.465000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Wow what a boring market. It hasnt moved massively in a full hour!,decrease,hold,False,True,2193.8923,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T13:50:23.412000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Your simulations should both draw 100 points and do the transformation of them, for each run.",increase,hold,False,True,394.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:14:39.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I believe it's 50.0495% right now. Yep, that close. NO would have to average 43% over the next 45 minutes to reach 50% t",decrease,hold,False,True,23516.7027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:11:22.006000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I’m Galen’s mom. I gave him my card 😊,increase,hold,False,True,172.0369,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:52:08.145000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I think I'm missing the importance of the hidden box. Why is knowing the hidden box dimensions important?,hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T16:45:24.579000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","What if he tweets something else and then uses inspect element, then deleted the tweet? Can we prove to whether a tweet ",decrease,decrease,True,True,90.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:05:01.284000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Team NO is taking recruits. 
+We need to put up half the total mana as team YES to win, and we stand to gain 200% return",increase,increase,True,True,1706.2423,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,flip,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:21:39.691000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Correct definition but it is definitely not a misspelling, just different origins",flip,hold,False,True,21286.9049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:54:18.369000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Yeah - for a bit there was a three digit drop between Galen and the second highest YES shareholder. Insane,flip,hold,False,True,124.0516,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:33:20.303000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For your example, the ""values"" are the probability densities. An X coordinate of 350 doesn't have a probability density ",flip,hold,False,True,278.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T04:14:18.977000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I think it's unfair that team YES has a higher goal 
+and
+ they have to maintain it for longer. It would be more fair i",decrease,flip,False,True,45.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T19:08:30.907000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Or how perspectives of women are mainly valued when it comes to 
+manifold.love",hold,hold,True,True,20.0277,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:27:05.141000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Is he trying to make it resolve yes right now?,hold,decrease,False,True,367.7024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:21:51.106000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It was 25 a few minutes ago! I would recommend YES bettors sell and take advantage of 
+my bounties",hold,decrease,False,True,112702.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:35:44.810000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Is this market the most liquid market ever?,hold,hold,True,True,6872.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T15:29:59.031000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you said ""I will use displayed percentages"" so the graph should be fine ?",flip,hold,False,True,499.5469,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:57:13.718000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Ah, how the knife turns to cut its own wielder.",decrease,decrease,True,True,10273.328,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T15:43:45.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Average distance between each point in the order they were revealed is kinda high for red,decrease,decrease,True,True,218.7686,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:52:31.083000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For likelihood ratio, I just eyeball the relative heights of the histogram boxes that the red and green dashed lines fal",flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-07-01T22:44:40.489000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Yay, I finally got a link I can claim from 
+. I couldn't claim 
+'s wonderful gift because he had insufficient balance😭",hold,hold,True,True,19939.5702,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:11:56.901000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","At this point, the remaining average needs to be greater than 61% for YES to win. For YES to even get there will require",decrease,hold,False,True,26802.7027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h72.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,122 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:12:12.864000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,You would just lose Ṁ1000 though,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:10:33.385000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","the users who were right about this particular question, yes",decrease,hold,False,True,1842.9583,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,increase,False,True,1668.7756,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T19:09:01.676000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Rationalussy is boring and not funny, but it's not sexist. Also see Shelvacu getting rationalussy from a man.",increase,decrease,False,True,861.3715,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:37:25.490000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",What a clear limit order graph,increase,hold,False,True,13264.8265,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T01:32:33.674000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","<EDIT: he fixed a typo in 3.>. I get 3.7% (~7% two-sided) for that, like your p suggests",increase,hold,False,True,3651.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:34:28.122000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,that works. I'm klob in the manifold discord,flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",hold,hold,True,True,19.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:48:05.217000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I actually think that it's too high of a percentage. Team NO is on track to have a mathematically guaranteed victory by ,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T01:19:31.411000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","At this rate, Team NO will narrow the gap quickly. But Team YES has more whales now, so perhaps they can regain momentum",flip,hold,False,True,5.1791,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:07:37.526000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","What are you basing your opinion on? I tried scipy discrepancy, but it didn't give much info in favour of No. Can you gi",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-15T03:00:30.947000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I would like to just come say welcome to the Mr. Rationalussy. May the spirit guide your right!,increase,increase,True,True,58.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:08:28.883000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I wonder if someone will buy like a million dollars worth of mana just to flip this market,decrease,hold,False,True,8905.2002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:50:24.211000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,I have a feeling we'll see an significant increase in trades tomorrow. Could be worth another market,increase,increase,True,True,15.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T23:42:13.408000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The dominant model of atomic attraction back in the early 1900s was 
+the hook-and-eye model
+, where each atom has some",hold,increase,False,True,1274.7949,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T02:34:58.163000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Part of the problem is that it's hard to incentivize people to vote against it, because they are only set to win a littl",flip,decrease,False,True,2750.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear 
+too
+ uniform to actually be rand",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:06:09.748000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","@MP
+ Liquidity and limit orders are differently things. Liquidity is how much mana can be won from the market itself, w",hold,hold,True,True,509623.6977,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:36:53.457000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"okay I will accept for a tip of 500 mana.  (I'm actually down about 650 now if I cash out, and the profit from the gain ",flip,decrease,False,True,1034.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:04:04.562000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Green stands out by a lot here, the only problem I guess is that this is a cherry-picked metric",increase,decrease,False,True,117.0238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T08:29:01.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",The limit orders for NO are so piled up that I see no way it flips unless a massive whale overturns.,decrease,hold,False,True,505.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:59:08.466000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I am usually a ""spiritualist"" rather than a literalist in terms of market resolutions, but only in cases where there is ",hold,increase,False,True,9.9814,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:15:40.274000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"When a market resolves N/A, all the trades that happened on it are reversed, even gains and losses you already cashed ou",increase,decrease,False,True,4569.9658,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-06T07:11:11.164000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Come on Darj, pace is looking good, need more 4 or 5 movie days.",increase,increase,True,True,671.611,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:10:58.822000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was commenting on your ""at least 50%"" wording. I know, nitpicky.",decrease,hold,False,True,140.3736,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:20:15.612000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Yeah that worked out really well for the long term.,increase,decrease,False,True,373324.9449,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T01:35:39.866000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I did participate in this market but I figure I will give some unsolicited advice to those who lost a lot.
+1. Never go ",hold,decrease,False,True,217.7575,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T21:49:48.441000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",wait. People actually spend money on this site? 😳,flip,decrease,False,True,154.3611,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:49:55.825000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"The more volume markets like this get, the more they stop being opt-in for users who are trying to compete on profit. Ma",decrease,hold,False,True,40.4991,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:21:08.146000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the rate is fast. Not everyone can spend so much time monitoring this market.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:26:37.746000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Oh man, I forgot you want to sleep 😅",increase,hold,False,True,588.1932,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:01:14.130000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Oops! Sorry, my bad for not realizing",increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-04T06:54:40.849000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,After this is over you are being put under constant supervision. ❤,hold,decrease,False,True,1470.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:48:30.258000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac, Jack and Marcus sold all their shares last minute and bought YES that would be wild.",flip,hold,False,True,54.2067,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:03:05.951000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,a vote for YES is a vote against moloch,decrease,hold,False,True,367.3066,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-10T15:31:35.656000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I have a big limit order at 50%, who wants to buy it?",decrease,decrease,True,True,14288.1202,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:28:46.715000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","As Spindle says, nobody should get out now, the best times are still ahead of us.",increase,increase,True,True,274951.2336,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:08:04.273000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"you can check if the question is edited by looking at the history (3 dots, more info)",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T23:50:29.268000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The distributions are very different and both rather atypical,increase,hold,False,True,88.1932,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:35:36.057000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Could you post the code you intend to use to determine resolution if it's not obvious? Or do you just intend to do somet,increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,hold,decrease,False,True,13100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T22:16:46.410000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll hold on to the end with you Mira. You finished honorably,increase,hold,False,True,503.6648,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-13T21:03:55.168000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Saying infinity for eyes in cheese is not accurate, there's a finite amount it's just hard to calculate. Suffice to say ",flip,increase,False,True,575.2945,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,decrease,False,True,782.2453,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:02:59.335000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Thank you 
+ for making such an interesting market and giving me this excellent opportunity to learn more about manifold",increase,hold,False,True,4791.0711,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:32:36.840000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",that's exactly what I assumed it was lmfao,decrease,hold,False,True,1734.1188,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:47:13.357000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",makes me feel weak and powerless,flip,decrease,False,True,2326.3894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T12:36:18.041000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The digit test is really insignificant. You did 48 individual test there for each color. One would expect 2-3 of them cr,flip,decrease,False,True,7.5356,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:56:09.765000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Keep in mind it’s average percentage, not “time spent either side”. Holding this market at 49%/51% is barely impacting t",flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T22:20:23.500000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Also, I think Manifold adding multiple different currencies would introduce big costs and complexities and would probabl",flip,decrease,False,True,5962.7932,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T15:05:43.123000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",what is your plan to get the average,increase,hold,False,True,16789.1713,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:24:34.166000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"YES holders have forced my hand.
+If anyone who accepts 
+ 's double defection bounty agrees to triple defect, I will co",flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:24:39.742000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Interesting thesis, I'll have to consult my Quant",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:52:46.390000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Does the No team has to worry about counter party risk here?
+Given that the market creator Isaac himself has now joined",flip,decrease,False,True,2628.9425,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:40:11.959000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I mean, the market description doesn't say anything, so I could do pretty much whatever I want without conflict with it.",decrease,decrease,True,True,15953.9776,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:33:20.733000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The earth is 
+491,000,000,00 feet
+ away from the sun.  That’s a 
+lot
+ of feet…",increase,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:48:08.454000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I’ve precommitted to not defecting, stop pinging me, please.",hold,hold,True,True,61.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:37:13.133000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,We are winning! Hold the line!,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T13:58:49.494000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"more, since I did not count 5 years. result:1.2775 quintillion",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:39:34.500000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The problem is that you make zero profit buying NO,decrease,decrease,True,True,41590.6495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T03:54:08.861000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,There were people (on both sides I believe) who asked for the market to remain open until the original close date. Partl,increase,hold,False,True,14245.0106,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:52:40.666000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",That's the point actually. This metric being invariant to the reflections makes it easier to use it to detect the fact t,decrease,increase,False,True,1562.1637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:58.727000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty scary. Feels like the only one pushing for NO. The percentage just keeps climbing and I might not see the next ba,decrease,decrease,True,True,1313.3765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T21:30:36.441000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Panic in the streets of Manifold...,increase,decrease,False,True,249630.7547,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T20:38:49.571000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I don't need all that math shit. Red is clearly the fake one because it's trying way too hard to be random. Just look at,decrease,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2468.5106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:29:25.508000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"In addition to that, free cash just for holding your positions above 61! 
+https://manifold.markets/LZ/fight-for-61#34vs",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-09T02:48:27.284000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Mammals are 
+nothing
+ in this market. A whisper of an echo of a joke.",hold,decrease,False,True,2850.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T04:03:29.469000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",will we see any counterwhales to fight Marcus and jack??,increase,hold,False,True,441.218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T14:51:38.257000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",just sold out of this market. Only misery awaits for non-whales here,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.5571,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:00:55.827000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Mass trades, right? (Or not, please tell me if I am mistaken)",increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Evan has forced our hand. 
+From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:30:22.302000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I will be somewhat sad if this market gets resolved negatively :(,decrease,decrease,True,True,97.3066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T13:43:14.866000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"the average person world wide walks 5000 steps a day. So, 100 billion humans existed, with an average life expectancy of",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:40:02.410000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Example: the mean of 100 draws of uniform dist is approx normal distributed. If you apply a random transform to 100 draw,increase,hold,False,True,462.6291,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:42:35.316000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Yes, I think Bayesian and Nikki might want to remove their limit orders so the price can go lower. >61 mana betting will",hold,decrease,False,True,2225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:55:14.197000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"use the api to bet, then set replyToCommentId",decrease,UNKNOWN,False,True,41758.6495,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:59:39.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",right but bailing isn't morally very good we all believe in spindle,hold,decrease,False,True,7296.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:28:23.904000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,dunno what their strat is but I'm enjoying the new risk free rate,increase,hold,False,True,295.8953,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T01:43:12.518000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm going to dump a bunch of evidence soon. Hopefully point 41 doesn't come before this. (Just re-starting looking at th,increase,decrease,False,True,349.892,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:52:31.083000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For likelihood ratio, I just eyeball the relative heights of the histogram boxes that the red and green dashed lines fal",flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:21:34.177000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"He just said she was the underdog, so he's putting his money where his mouth is by staying very, very far away",decrease,increase,False,True,10393.3874,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T19:04:34.552000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Just to be clear, regarding my limit bid at 67 I'm not switching to team YES, just giving other people a chance to join ",flip,decrease,False,True,29180.9743,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T14:52:18.721000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I had more time, this seems like a great market to just buy low and sell high on. I don't know if it will end up YES ",flip,decrease,False,True,32.1308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1)  around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-04T19:52:34.361000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,can you please provide a reliable source that proves nematodes have eyes? Most of the nematodes live in dark places wher,hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:06:29.526000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The problem is that the market will resolve yes,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:55:30.194000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I don't think that one had as many limit orders, did it?",hold,hold,True,True,509623.6977,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T16:20:37.457000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","A couple moderators discussed and decided we need 
+ to resolve this himself. My own biased opinion (and Eliezer's at le",hold,decrease,False,True,2986.045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T01:08:17.398000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",There is that possibility but my guess is they won't risk that much money for profit the wealthiest of the 2 whales prob,flip,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:09:25.399000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I agree with your assessment.  Thus, it's GREEN",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:45:09.271000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think the market creator said that the tweet had to remain up for at least 1 minute for it to count right?!  It’s some,flip,decrease,False,True,169.0258,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T17:38:08.780000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"For comparison: 
+https://pastebin.com/R3iZ8dFm
+ – R script that calculates the key stats for this market using API dat",hold,decrease,False,True,10000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:35:37.379000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I am the leetest trader of this market,decrease,increase,False,True,1846.8408,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_count.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
+0,0.41029175640844706,0.6900000000000002,0.2797082435915531,UP,0.60757280572178,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,30,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+1,0.16706269593814144,0.12609796520758024,-0.0409647307305612,DOWN,0.5711675913917458,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+2,0.37800371341261757,0.10284512402400005,-0.27515858938861754,DOWN,0.688076853776415,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",63,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+3,0.6247259464695615,0.7022222222222222,0.07749627575266071,UP,0.8799630655586335,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+4,0.7663975872347908,0.8819605240321353,0.11556293679734453,UP,0.5623427261990062,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,28,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5,0.127214074772153,0.11806607312834554,-0.009148001643807455,DOWN,0.7178135721744139,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6,0.5108219988917128,0.5029723719143271,-0.00784962697738567,DOWN,0.9412010796904061,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+7,0.6025966882627538,0.670141823048399,0.06754513478564517,UP,0.2236084603059948,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+8,0.41765917306113365,0.9594751387717623,0.5418159657106286,UP,0.5779292447003663,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9,0.5320563449323434,0.6543282069671524,0.122271862034809,UP,0.666833007255626,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+10,0.25970593793034125,0.24973714120683654,-0.009968796723504703,DOWN,0.3052226423154396,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+11,0.7219473855147879,0.09120086315422612,-0.6307465223605617,DOWN,0.6281462351908335,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,30,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_time.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
+0,0.6957510561348466,0.9013349211139413,0.20558386497909475,UP,0.35876014493054825,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",163,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+1,0.5600000000000002,0.3587165477522472,-0.20128345224775296,DOWN,0.3258426966292135,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+2,0.15411083739094883,0.1099999999999999,-0.044110837390948926,DOWN,0.08215356409258556,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,58,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+3,0.7061456652823016,0.9487470462226658,0.2426013809403642,UP,0.8254035720588192,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,29,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+4,0.7399999999999999,0.9084428964734477,0.1684428964734478,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5,0.48984450781447836,0.445226508054752,-0.04461799975972636,DOWN,0.9228364903698121,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6,0.21967293766887389,0.2787657022068996,0.05909276453802573,UP,0.7328340565763029,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",12,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+7,0.4512818720803688,0.3398367860248947,-0.1114450860554741,DOWN,0.9542521529714636,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",88,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+8,0.42939988893248177,0.46594090938547567,0.0365410204529939,UP,0.22238207244843325,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9,0.26887888486391553,0.20812459502961908,-0.060754289834296454,DOWN,0.13199590171004272,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,33,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+10,0.6855660586118295,0.6650823231688482,-0.02048373544298132,DOWN,0.9352286383725495,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+11,0.34964927858443573,0.2450349958960403,-0.10461428268839543,DOWN,0.4838398230609181,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_0shot.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right (
+https://polymarket.com/even",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:11:44.327000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He also gave a lot of tariff waivers to importers that were surely in no way related to Trump campaign contributions.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_1shot.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right (
+https://polymarket.com/even",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:11:44.327000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He also gave a lot of tariff waivers to importers that were surely in no way related to Trump campaign contributions.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,232 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,YES,NO,False,True,20.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-23T03:38:33.503000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump seems determined to antagonize every single other country: 
+Trump threatens to try and regain control of Panama C",YES,YES,True,True,912.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:28:40.092000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,are you suggesting the EU would expropriate the existing US owned infrastructure? That's one way of making it happen I g,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",NO,NO,True,True,200.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T05:33:36.081000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The China tariffs are really happening,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T02:54:34.120000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Commodities are rising very quickly but the CPI still shows goods deflation right now. They will eventually show up as g,YES,NO,False,True,12400.1352,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T05:52:01.519000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yep agree
+I already have positions on these two markets
+https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-next-change-to-t",YES,YES,True,True,18470.9406,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T19:09:28.427000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"To those buying YES, why stonk market up so bigly? Either tariffs don't matter, or market doesn't beleive in them.",NO,NO,True,True,5200.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:17:50.170000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it was 10-20% broad based tariffs excluding FTA countries and 60-100% on China based on previous indications. The Can/Me,NO,YES,False,True,5200.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,9872.0608,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,25670.9364,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T02:48:45.357000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232), the Trade Act of 1974 (Section 301), the International Emergency Economi",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T23:04:46.353000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Isn't it hilarious how people keep repeating the same mistakes xD
+It is!
+We're talking about Manifold, right?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,71888.3299,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:56:16.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think you are underestimating how hard it is to do this stuff. 
+I do agree that the winds have changed, but  politica",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:59:52.139000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Regarding the yield curve as measured by 10y2y treasury yield spread: it just disinverted.,YES,NO,False,True,1363.6765,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T21:39:57.607000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Funny - I was being told I was wrong for buying at sub 20% 🤷‍♂️,YES,NO,False,True,35721.9083,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:46:23.333000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Higher gas and rents keep US inflation elevated, likely delaying Fed rate cuts",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-12T23:21:49.732000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Manifold seems to be resolving all cash markets to %, did I miss a memo?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,275.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:51:49.071000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Also clear indication that he doesn't give a flying fuck about the US tech sector 👀,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-20T00:52:28.416000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Made a market for recession in the next 12 months:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3399.0244,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T06:32:10.056000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with 
+'s interpretation. By EOY would likely mean both quarters have to be in 2025, even if the recession start",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
+10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T06:56:48.898000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yeah I agree with all of this
+Add in the lagged monetary impacts from people terming out their debt and the next 18 mon",YES,YES,True,True,16559.9406,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:39:32.013000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,A negotiating tactic for what? He already negotiated the USMCA trade act during his first term,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-14T08:21:13.050000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"If Q3 GDP is positive, this market will resolve no.
+Q3 ends 9/30/25
+Kalshi currently predicts growth of 1.8%
+And pred",NO,NO,True,True,257.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:53:49.387000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,This is going to be spectacularly idiotic,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-10T23:42:01.588000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Is the resolution criteria somehow different than this one? 
+https://manifold.markets/EternalSunrise/will-the-us-enter-",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-22T01:34:25.946000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I made a pair of markets for the weaker question of simply whether tariffs will go up. Thanks for the interesting market,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T02:28:34.626000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Other countries could retaliate against the US by applying matching export tariffs to help Trump out.,NO,NO,True,True,31738.6582,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T19:10:56.467000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,then why are you not buying more?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,300.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-09T15:50:14.701000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Based on predictions from various banks and institutions the likelihood to enter a recession in 2024 is given but statis,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-11T20:29:53.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree with you Luciana: 
+ Based on curent data, it seems more likely that the US economy will continue to grow in 202",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-20T01:19:47.306000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"aren't ""bullshit"" and ""truthful hyperbole"" just two ways of saying the same thing?",NO,NO,True,True,32294.948,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T02:03:23.862000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Like if the EU cuts off US tech companies and its institutions pull their capital out of US markets, that trillions and ",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:07:44.286000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Nice to see you Mr. PA swing state boy.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,61.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8000.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time:
+https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
+ 
+""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,125371.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T13:42:37.123000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree. Trends on prediction markets:
+Here: min of 13% in May, now  21%
+Kalshi
+: min of 7% in April, now 11%
+Metacu",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T11:18:45.901000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For anyone reading the current pricing in both markets (40 % vs 39 %), feel free to arb this one or add liquidity if you",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1163.6765,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-05T07:30:46.004000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,to be fair a lot of the uptick in unemployment data we see now from historic recessions are a result of revisions much l,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,19878.762,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T14:47:08.736000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it makes American goods similarly attractive to Israeli goods.,NO,YES,False,True,31688.6582,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:19:36.037000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what do you think would be the main limiting factors?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:37:06.014000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I see you've already revised your 2-3 year timeline,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:15:25.437000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,for one glorious moment I thought Trump was himself tweeting pictures from Peep Show,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,814.8644,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:22:57.323000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"So, high tariffs were imposed on 2nd April, which conveniently is the start of a quarter. It's now pretty much the end o",YES,YES,True,True,30611.8738,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:45:04.695000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Popular in academia and journalism, afaik, I don't know if whether the 10y-2y bond spread was popular among the major pl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,18.671,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T13:51:57.704000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Why turnips rather than long-life dried and tinned food?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:07:39.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it would take about 2-3 years to make a European cloud provider that was good enough to replace the US ones. That is ent,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T22:08:13.181000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It was pretty obvious with the rapid interest rate hikes and the inverted yield curve.,YES,YES,True,True,17997.1352,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:43:29.582000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Initially just capacity. It takes years to just build the low level hardware and physical datacenters. Then you need to ,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T12:43:31.382000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,this is all to answer the same question as this market,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. 
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",NO,NO,True,True,399.899,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-07-14T12:08:26.098000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I like this, but how can an average user calculate ruin risk from these loans? (There is a chance of multiple markets re",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T02:26:20.389000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"there's almost no ev in betting in that market though, no liquidity, low confidence predictor",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2000.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T22:02:36.196000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah! And to be clear, if it did happen it would be awesome!",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T13:51:40.981000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"lol, whatever. Not interested in discussing your love for a bullshitter. Point is you can never be sure he'll do what he",YES,NO,False,True,310.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:41:36.209000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,The 10-year-2-year bond spread has historically been a good and popular marker that correlated strongly with subsequent ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:41:47.807000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's unfair because a foreign company selling in the US will not face a VAT. That's what I mean by 'from the US perspect,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,576.6927,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:19:24.169000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This is the first I've heard that claim being made. For those interested in US trade policy (there are dozens of us!) , ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T22:35:13.240000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"My issue is when you say those indicators all flash red, it sounds like overfitting to me. Wouldn't that imply close to ",NO,NO,True,True,250.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:24:54.383000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"From the 
+NYT
+:
+Mexican officials did not immediately react, but the announcement most likely did not come as a surpr",YES,YES,True,True,613.3469,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T14:11:22.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The orator of our generation is speaking, it is conditional!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T20:57:52.032000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the fool who doesn’t believe him?,YES,YES,True,True,813.3469,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T13:44:02.898000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Hey, I liked 
+On Bullshit 
+but his take on Trump is so bad. I see the article is from 2016. I would have agreed with h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5600.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T02:56:34.346000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"also worth noting that doesn't seem to include the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, or the elimination of section 301 exc",NO,YES,False,True,5700.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-04T04:22:41.701000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,16% seems about right to me but I imagine it’s going to head back up to 20% before dropping after the Q1 gdp estimate,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:54:32.579000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The article is from Harry Frankfurt, a prominent philosopher, as opposed to a bullshitting con artist who says things th",YES,NO,False,True,310.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:40:58.161000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"well no, that doesn't make any sense. There is no perspective from which VAT is ""unfair"" to US companies. It's just bull",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-18T14:40:31.349000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Crude, perhaps, but elegant, and not vulnerable to things like force-fitting 
+Nicholas movie appearances against drowni",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,750.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T13:05:44.478000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Isn't the goal then to distort competition in favor of US imports?
+Israel for example has a VAT of 18% which makes buyi",NO,YES,False,True,2654.4823,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T00:54:00.472000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"with more risk and at a lower rate of expected return.  I imagine lots of people have been busy calculating the 
+Trump ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,11319.3406,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T04:15:21.508000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I have a market for Canada related news specifically:,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1000.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5400.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T03:01:32.377000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I think that market requires 2 quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024. This market is about ENTERING a recession, which",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but 
+https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
+ says China made up 16.5% of imports",NO,NO,True,True,889.8625,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,YES,YES,True,True,200.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,NO,NO,True,True,300.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-05T13:57:29.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"although it's possible that the gains from trump's deregulation completely dominate any losses due to tarriffs, even bef",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T01:17:57.878000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"There is a large discrepancy between the 18% here and some probabilistic models:
+https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/ca",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-10T11:25:41.919000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""a promise is most useful when it is empty, and believe me these are the most tremendously empty promises, maybe ever"" -",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-23T00:15:58.823000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"idk, the people I talk to suggest what is most likely is:
+1) no significant broad based tariffs in 2025
+2) if China ta",NO,NO,True,True,3700.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:51:27.840000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ya, it's based on FRED quarterly rates, so likely it will resolve at earliest after Q2.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19966.2654,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:55:35.302000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Look at that big beautiful smile. So happy,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,30.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article: 
+https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,YES,YES,True,True,700.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:24:11.724000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Make a market for it, I'll bet it down to 10%. You have no idea what you're talking about",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-14T17:19:43.139000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Check out this market to bet on what Trump will say in Year 1 
+https://manifold.markets/Houston2025/what-words-or-phras",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,YES,YES,True,True,4000.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",YES,YES,True,True,323.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T16:33:04.392000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Made a time sensitive (but inversed, this is just the question with the Yglesias tag) version of the question, for the Y",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-09-16T08:51:28.375000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Nice and vague: The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4893.9404,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1999.0244,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:13:30.808000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"much more complicated than that (and my declaration itself is of course oversimplified, since currency appreciation can ",NO,NO,True,True,5200.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,YES,NO,False,True,32527.762,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T09:13:56.336000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks 
+ for the excellent write up.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,11949.3112,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4650.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-10-25T17:47:11.520000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-24/bond-market-misfires-with-warning-of-a-recession-that-never-came?embe,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:02:28.040000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the claims were a bit vague, malachite you created a market that i think is vaguer and broader than might have been expe",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T17:30:34.943000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"My dad is no longer a federal government employee, but his friend who is still working for them says to expect a ""red ho",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-08T20:08:25.450000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Good one, but the Sahm Rule has already triggered. The text on the rightmost door should be ""yield curve disinversion"".",YES,YES,True,True,2063.6765,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,21966.2654,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T02:21:46.339000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The 10% is on top of other tariffs currently in place,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T16:57:23.097000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The inaccurate leak to Reuters ~1.5 hours before the announcement at the press conference is exactly the optimal strateg,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T20:09:00.997000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He told Trudeau that if he cannot handle his list of demands without ripping the U.S. off in trade, maybe Canada should ",NO,YES,False,True,5400.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is  a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,39205.5098,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-11T22:14:07.904000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering that ""consumer spending"" makes up nearly 68% of the US GDP, a major indicator of economic stability, and tha",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:26:38.745000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I get that TACO is a thing, but 6% isn't very high, and market resolution just needs one quarter. I think it's just a ca",YES,YES,True,True,32361.8738,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T22:39:42.990000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,There has long been a question if Trump wants tariffs for their own sake or just as a bargaining chip. Last couple hours,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-04T16:40:32.636000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,if the official government numbers start excluding government spending what will be the basis for this market's resoluti,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",NO,NO,True,True,1315.2604,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-01T10:02:45.765000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,What lack of patriotism! It's ne’er been a good bet to bet against America.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3045.7482,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T19:12:02.705000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,my understanding is that Biden did nothing to reform this obvious opportunity for corruption.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",YES,YES,True,True,5999.3386,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:04:14.037000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with what you said except that you made some omissions:
+You undersold the impact of the stock market on the eco",YES,YES,True,True,100.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-24T01:44:57.027000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Talks of a recession began when the Federal Reserve began to increase interest rates amidst the 2022 inflation spike. Ov,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T05:08:38.801000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Thank you for playing."" - Kevin Burke",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,142068.5666,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:30:22.116000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I could have sworn that NBER delayed longer than 2 years on some important matter related to the 2008 recession, but I l",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-05T04:40:24.846000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It will be hard to declare a recession. Recessions are hard to present in circumstances like we are in right now. What i,YES,YES,True,True,1157.7466,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-12T19:03:31.498000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,What's the NO position here? If we haven't already crossed 6% for this quarter we will shortly. Effective tariffs estima,YES,YES,True,True,2989.6062,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T06:45:52.686000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"putting that market aside (it's low liquidity but I think high enough that we should consider the option plausible), tho",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1350.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T16:17:28.421000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,read the description of the market,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19843.7232,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,40.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-05T04:43:06.132000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Productivity gains from AI in 2024-2030 hopefully will carry us out of this debt scare. Inflation will probably drop bec,YES,NO,False,True,1157.7466,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T15:12:43.391000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ok, I understand it a lot better now thank you.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2654.4823,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-19T01:34:09.783000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"will this market resolve when Q3 advance estimate comes out, given growth is positive?",NO,NO,True,True,130179.179,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T16:28:02.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Why was this trading >10% higher than an equivalent market on Kalshi?
+https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlargetariff/trump-ta",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14920.0754,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-07T14:29:08.955000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"this market narrowly defines recession based on GDP growth though. If Q3 is positive, it resolves no.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T11:46:25.809000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,When does the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast switch from 'estimations' to quarter 1 into 'reports' from q1? or does it eve,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T15:00:30.311000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"At this point, can we all agree that last week was a little bit of an overreaction?",NO,NO,True,True,35152.4996,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
+I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:10:14.456000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If a fool says he’ll do something, believe him.",YES,YES,True,True,500.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-13T16:35:05.716000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""I punch someone in the face and I'm utterly shocked when they punch me back""",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T16:31:39.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"How do you expect tariff negotiations to proceed?
+Moving production to US seems like a process that will take several m",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-12T23:29:50.579000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. 
+Please read",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-30T03:37:52.932000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sounds like policy wise you’re advocating for a hands off approach to the situation after spending too much money on por,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,24.4501,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-10T16:49:20.321000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,look at the political strife in europe: now is the time to threaten them in order to make our vassals--uhh...i mean alli,NO,YES,False,True,50.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-23T01:58:37.519000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Please make note of the clarification above and in the description.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T23:16:34.437000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"A lot of movement in this market but less in mine: 
+https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnI",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:45:45.950000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I apologise for the incoherence, it was 4 am here when I wrote that, on mobile, in bed. But someone was wrong on the int",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-03-10T04:35:23.809000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,bruh im not gonna wait 6 damm years,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",NO,YES,False,True,965.2996,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%.
+https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",YES,YES,True,True,912.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T09:49:40.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"are you suggesting that while 1:00-1:15 and 1:15-1:30 are quarters of an hour, 1:05-1:20 isn't? 😄",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,653.1524,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T23:44:49.110000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Which US state is going to get hardest hit? Kentucky?,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T00:08:45.448000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Sort of sad that a man who makes his living through analyzing politics feels this might call his integrity in question, ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: 
+https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:00:23.867000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The distinction between lying and bullshitting is fairly clear. The liar asserts something which he himself believes to ,YES,NO,False,True,300.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-16T00:47:07.441000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree that it's a suboptimal criteria, and I also suspect most traders dont actually think it's an important differenc",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4700.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T02:45:27.983000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"But 
+Trump said
+ he wasn't using tariffs as a bargaining chip, and that there was nothing the countries could do to de",YES,YES,True,True,350.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-16T04:22:19.157000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're at 245% tariff for China now! 
+https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump",YES,YES,True,True,6825.4029,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:09.801000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I work on Azure, so I'm familiar with the current situation for Microsoft. There are already significant regulatory requ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:43:22.960000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Why the decline from 80% to 65% today? What news am I missing?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T15:41:44.422000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Not yet negative but strong downwards trend in the limited q4 data so far,YES,YES,True,True,3092.7622,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T10:44:39.831000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,🤦‍♂️It will also damage America's growth. Imagine trading the manufacturing of advanced goods for the manufacturing of s,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:27.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"thats ridiculous. Where are you going to run your infrastructure, on Alibaba? To build a serious European replacement wo",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T01:28:08.502000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I have a hard time figuring how real world events are causing the fluctuations in this market.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.2688,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2063.6765,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T16:01:13.352000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Hmm Does zero imports at 104% tariff raise much tax revenue or increase the weighted average tariff rate much?,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T06:49:55.268000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnISL2
+move my market guys. I'd do it myself but don't ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:51:05.189000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's ok, your explanation seems reasonable, the only minor problem was the borderline aggressive back-and-forth with the",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T15:09:02.878000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I don’t believe there is going to be a recession soon in US. Just some data:
+-          GDP annual growth: +2.1% for 2Q",NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T14:50:10.667000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"No it’s just a dip, back up at 3:30, just enjoy the ride. 😜",NO,NO,True,True,60.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T23:52:33.646000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and that is before you account for the producers in China paying part of the tariff in the form of currency valuation ch,NO,NO,True,True,5700.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:42:06.741000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Higher tariff on Canada than on China is some '5D chess',NO,YES,False,True,1604.4823,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T14:30:18.183000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,at a volume of $4000? Highly doubtful,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,YES,NO,False,True,452.6335,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",NO,NO,True,True,5738.1803,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",NO,YES,False,True,168899.8091,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:00:04.173000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,does it also mean they will drop tariffs for those that don't charge nearly any tariffs?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.2688,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:09:57.981000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I highly doubt that.  First of all, why not just hedge themselves within the stock market at better rates on futures or ",NO,NO,True,True,21966.2654,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%)
+https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-31T16:37:49.519000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Sold my position until I can better model what scenarios result in what weighted average tariff - as well as their respe,increase,decrease,False,True,136.5969,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:01:55.181000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"they are calling it free money, folks",increase,increase,True,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T00:29:15.019000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yeah, whilst I think strictly speaking it's unambiguously worded, I nonetheless think there would be argument if the dat",increase,decrease,False,True,142401.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:50:11.280000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yup. Based on a long list of empirically tested indicators you should predict recession by EoY 2024 with at least 80 % p,increase,increase,True,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:22:01.182000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,But they don't make it harder for American companies to compete in foreign markets. Pretty hard to argue that VATs are u,increase,decrease,False,True,71.8293,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T08:09:50.457000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I expect those to be rather short-lived,decrease,decrease,True,True,15189.3281,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,decrease,False,True,5.199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:05:03.439000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The Colombia tariffs aren’t nearly sufficient to make the market resolve, but they’re indicative that Trump really is wi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T04:23:49.343000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I mean that the only scenario where the Fed cuts rates is a recession with inflation remaining high and commodities skyr,hold,increase,False,True,12400.1352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:55:55.668000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's like walking up someone on the playground and punching them in the face while saying they're not allowed to punch b,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%.
+https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",decrease,hold,False,True,912.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-14T23:08:55.144000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I have a position on this market so I'm not the one who should make a ruling. But my personal take is if there is a rece,hold,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,hold,increase,False,True,32527.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,flip,False,True,17436.5969,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4%
+Q3 2024 +3.1%
+Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large.
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",hold,hold,True,True,21966.2654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,decrease,False,True,277.8942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",decrease,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T18:29:23.101000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This gives weighted average above the threshold, at least according to the weights that ChatGPT gave me...",decrease,decrease,True,True,15299.5535,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:17:53.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Maybe despite all his disclaimers to the contrary it really was a very elaborate april fools joke,increase,flip,False,True,3134.3924,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either
+q2 is negative or
+q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Voting with $:
+https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:56:58.584000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Retaliating is generally good practice for anyone who wants to deter aggression. That does not mean that the method of r,hold,decrease,False,True,39536.5541,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,decrease,False,True,1163.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:23:29.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"pretty sure ChatGPT will assume universal tariff, whereas I think Trump will have targeted lists",decrease,hold,False,True,17436.5969,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. 
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",increase,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article: 
+https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T07:50:27.865000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,might want to cancel your limit order,increase,decrease,False,True,3395.7482,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T21:05:59.149000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're gonna have a Big Beautiful Recession, the likes of which you've never seen before",decrease,decrease,True,True,2768.001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T04:28:00.304000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Thanks for the second link. The first I think is pretty well known.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:43:06.137000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,my favorite proposed retaliation in the EU is to cancel US copyright within EU borders.,hold,hold,True,True,21717.8019,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is  a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",increase,decrease,False,True,39205.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,decrease,decrease,True,True,452.6335,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T22:07:53.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wonder if they will stay bullish on the economy after seeing their long time colleagues get laid off.,increase,decrease,False,True,320.3533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-16T18:07:38.453000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hahaha agree that forecasters should be treated skeptically. Given the rate environment, yield inversion and wider risks",hold,increase,False,True,4879.5767,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,increase,False,True,3648.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T22:03:22.727000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,This market should now track the chances of Kamala winning.,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Welcome to tariffs
+This is tariffs
+Welcome
+This is tariffs
+Welcome to tariffs
+You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",hold,hold,True,True,186218.5666,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-12T01:25:53.138000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"there are at least three entirely different definitions of recessions used by markets on this site!
+Adding to the title",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-28T23:05:23.679000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Tax Foundation estimates the rate at 8%+
+ 
+if
+ Trump continues following through on his main proposals. The ""will the",increase,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:29:06.331000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"People are suddenly realizing that ""Trump is obviously just saying things, he won't actually do them"" is as wrong now as",increase,increase,True,True,1218.3102,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but 
+https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
+ says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:22:37.569000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the obvious: observation of and thus renewed speculation on the translation of Trump's campaign platform to real policy ,increase,hold,False,True,20.0719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,increase,False,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T00:19:16.264000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"In July, the Federal Reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp d",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",increase,hold,False,True,2063.6765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-08T20:08:25.450000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Good one, but the Sahm Rule has already triggered. The text on the rightmost door should be ""yield curve disinversion"".",increase,increase,True,True,2063.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,hold,decrease,False,True,18.671,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",hold,increase,False,True,4650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T22:06:44.631000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"ah, I see. Hm, maybe. I'm not sure and I'd probably bet this back up if not for the low unemployment numbers the past tw",hold,decrease,False,True,973.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",hold,decrease,False,True,9872.0608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T19:43:17.257000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm feeling like there isn't going to be a recession!,increase,increase,True,True,97583.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:43:24.231000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The 
+Sahm Rule
+ paper, released in 2019, is based on monthly unemployment data that was not available prior to 1970. 1",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:38:07.494000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"When finding good recession indicators there are two things we are looking for (as with any good statistical model):
+1.",increase,decrease,False,True,2063.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False,True,5.199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T12:39:53.540000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html
+The first estimate of Q1 GDP was negative. This market will resolve Y",increase,increase,True,True,8550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True,True,197.9576,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,had this all prepared and everything,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,hold,True,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T14:33:48.870000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I didn't claim any love for Trump, but it's interesting you suggested that. It's as if trying to understand Trumpism is ",hold,hold,True,True,5600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:02:40.159000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For those who believe the Sahm rule indicates the US is already in recession, here is a market for you:",increase,hold,False,True,57255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
+market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,decrease,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,"Welcome to tariffs
+This is tariffs
+Welcome
+This is tariffs
+Welcome to tariffs
+You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",hold,hold,True
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,I should really only use limit orders that expire,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,decrease,False
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:43:06.137000+00:00,my favorite proposed retaliation in the EU is to cancel US copyright within EU borders.,hold,decrease,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-16T18:07:38.453000+00:00,"Hahaha agree that forecasters should be treated skeptically. Given the rate environment, yield inversion and wider risks",hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%.
+https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",decrease,decrease,True
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,hold,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,"you might like this Axios article: 
+https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,decrease,False
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,decrease,decrease,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either
+q2 is negative or
+q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,decrease,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,had this all prepared and everything,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:56:58.584000+00:00,Retaliating is generally good practice for anyone who wants to deter aggression. That does not mean that the method of r,hold,decrease,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but 
+https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
+ says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T00:19:16.264000+00:00,"In July, the Federal Reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp d",hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T22:06:44.631000+00:00,"ah, I see. Hm, maybe. I'm not sure and I'd probably bet this back up if not for the low unemployment numbers the past tw",hold,decrease,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,decrease,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T22:03:22.727000+00:00,This market should now track the chances of Kamala winning.,hold,decrease,False
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,decrease,decrease,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T21:05:59.149000+00:00,"We're gonna have a Big Beautiful Recession, the likes of which you've never seen before",decrease,decrease,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:55:55.668000+00:00,It's like walking up someone on the playground and punching them in the face while saying they're not allowed to punch b,hold,decrease,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,hold,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:23:29.523000+00:00,"pretty sure ChatGPT will assume universal tariff, whereas I think Trump will have targeted lists",decrease,hold,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T04:23:49.343000+00:00,I mean that the only scenario where the Fed cuts rates is a recession with inflation remaining high and commodities skyr,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,decrease,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T18:29:23.101000+00:00,"This gives weighted average above the threshold, at least according to the weights that ChatGPT gave me...",decrease,decrease,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,decrease,hold,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T08:09:50.457000+00:00,I expect those to be rather short-lived,decrease,decrease,True
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,hold,False
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-14T23:08:55.144000+00:00,I have a position on this market so I'm not the one who should make a ruling. But my personal take is if there is a rece,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",decrease,hold,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,"Voting with $:
+https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,decrease,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T14:33:48.870000+00:00,"I didn't claim any love for Trump, but it's interesting you suggested that. It's as if trying to understand Trumpism is ",hold,hold,True

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,"Welcome to tariffs
+This is tariffs
+Welcome
+This is tariffs
+Welcome to tariffs
+You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-16T18:07:38.453000+00:00,"Hahaha agree that forecasters should be treated skeptically. Given the rate environment, yield inversion and wider risks",hold,hold,True
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-14T23:08:55.144000+00:00,I have a position on this market so I'm not the one who should make a ruling. But my personal take is if there is a rece,hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T00:19:16.264000+00:00,"In July, the Federal Reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp d",hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:43:06.137000+00:00,my favorite proposed retaliation in the EU is to cancel US copyright within EU borders.,hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T04:23:49.343000+00:00,I mean that the only scenario where the Fed cuts rates is a recession with inflation remaining high and commodities skyr,hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,"Voting with $:
+https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,flip,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",flip,hold,False
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,flip,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T22:03:22.727000+00:00,This market should now track the chances of Kamala winning.,hold,flip,False
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,hold,flip,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:43:24.231000+00:00,"The 
+Sahm Rule
+ paper, released in 2019, is based on monthly unemployment data that was not available prior to 1970. 1",flip,hold,False
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",hold,hold,True
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:56:58.584000+00:00,Retaliating is generally good practice for anyone who wants to deter aggression. That does not mean that the method of r,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T14:33:48.870000+00:00,"I didn't claim any love for Trump, but it's interesting you suggested that. It's as if trying to understand Trumpism is ",hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,"you might like this Axios article: 
+https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,flip,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,had this all prepared and everything,hold,hold,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,flip,True
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:55:55.668000+00:00,It's like walking up someone on the playground and punching them in the face while saying they're not allowed to punch b,hold,flip,False
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,flip,False
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,hold,False
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",hold,hold,True
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T22:06:44.631000+00:00,"ah, I see. Hm, maybe. I'm not sure and I'd probably bet this back up if not for the low unemployment numbers the past tw",hold,hold,True
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,I should really only use limit orders that expire,hold,hold,True

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h12.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:37:17.783000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Do you genuinely believe that the US was wealthier and more prosperous in the 1890s? The data seems to disagree, at leas",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-11T00:33:16.217000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Given loans exist again I think it makes sense to bet it down more. Otherwise just wasn't worth it.,hold,increase,False,True,220393.0665,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",hold,hold,True,True,11319.3406,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,increase,hold,False,True,613.3469,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T22:52:50.507000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/01/us/trump-tariffs-news?smid=url-share
+ 
+It's official 25% tariff on both Canada",increase,increase,True,True,4606.9635,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:22:11.018000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sahm rule about as scientific as the 13 keys to the election,increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:06:25.463000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If we have high inflation, don't stocks keep going up in dollar terms even if they fall in real value?",increase,hold,False,True,1100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,hold,True,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T23:30:35.260000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"probably not, they've been betting on it for many months.",hold,hold,True,True,2923.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T00:29:15.019000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yeah, whilst I think strictly speaking it's unambiguously worded, I nonetheless think there would be argument if the dat",increase,decrease,False,True,142401.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T10:12:38.589000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"IMO Trump is more likely to engage in unhinged reckless stimulus to handle/prevent a recession than Harris. Thus, from a",hold,increase,False,True,3313.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1999.0244,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",hold,hold,True,True,14950.9342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-20T10:18:34.057000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hi everyone! 
+Note that I'm new here (I didn't read comments older than ~3 months).
+Let me first summarize the 
+argum",increase,increase,True,True,139.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T00:54:00.472000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"with more risk and at a lower rate of expected return.  I imagine lots of people have been busy calculating the 
+Trump ",hold,decrease,False,True,11319.3406,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,increase,True,True,372.3533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right (
+https://polymarket.com/even",increase,decrease,False,True,6899.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T02:12:01.635000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The total U.S. average effective tariff rate is 17.8%
+https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/after-uk-china-trade-deals-tariff",increase,increase,True,True,134.2006,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T13:19:16.026000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you know how many months on average (and min, max) between the Sahm rule is triggered and the onset of a recession ba",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T12:43:31.382000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,this is all to answer the same question as this market,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T00:46:21.050000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,who's more foolish the fool or the fool who believes him?,hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,decrease,False,True,1163.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-26T01:27:27.531000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Kalshi currently has a 94% chance of Q3 GDP growth  coming in above 0.0%
+https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp/us-gdp-growth",hold,increase,False,True,1284.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-01T23:24:47.853000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Tariffs will make our country wealthy again (restore 1890’s levels of prosperity to our great country),increase,increase,True,True,85765.0257,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4%
+Q3 2024 +3.1%
+Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large.
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True,True,197.9576,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:22:57.323000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"So, high tariffs were imposed on 2nd April, which conveniently is the start of a quarter. It's now pretty much the end o",increase,increase,True,True,30611.8738,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either
+q2 is negative or
+q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:26:38.745000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I get that TACO is a thing, but 6% isn't very high, and market resolution just needs one quarter. I think it's just a ca",hold,increase,False,True,32361.8738,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me).  I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T18:01:34.836000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's still at least 10% for now.,hold,decrease,False,True,2932.1189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:13:30.808000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"much more complicated than that (and my declaration itself is of course oversimplified, since currency appreciation can ",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:55:10.620000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Correct. Simply look at the the 10Y2Y spread on FRED. Resteepening above 0 typically signals imminent recession.,increase,hold,False,True,550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%)
+https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",hold,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T20:53:44.201000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Wow. The negotiation tactics are getting better and better,increase,increase,True,True,181.8293,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:28:49.363000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yes - this one is the ""two quarters of negative growth"" recession definition, that one is the ""NBER declares it"" recessi",hold,hold,True,True,8000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. 
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",increase,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:01:55.181000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"they are calling it free money, folks",increase,increase,True,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T00:56:40.917000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Am I going crazy?
+High tariffs, weak job numbers, labour bureau being gutted Q1 negative GDP growth. 
+Still below 20%",increase,increase,True,True,56456.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:06:43.085000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"jobs are somewhat concerning, but Q2 GDP looked great!
+The disconnect between jobs and GDP is confusing, but it sounds ",increase,decrease,False,True,255300.828,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:05:03.439000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The Colombia tariffs aren’t nearly sufficient to make the market resolve, but they’re indicative that Trump really is wi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:29.610000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump didn't say anything about 25% on US/Mex until last night, so would be impressive if it was already priced in",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is  a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",increase,decrease,False,True,39205.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T21:11:23.591000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought he could still implement tariffs for up to 150 days under emergency economic powers act,hold,flip,False,True,5200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h24.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,increase,False,True,3648.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:17:53.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Maybe despite all his disclaimers to the contrary it really was a very elaborate april fools joke,increase,flip,False,True,3134.3924,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False,True,5.199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:06:25.463000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If we have high inflation, don't stocks keep going up in dollar terms even if they fall in real value?",increase,hold,False,True,1100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T22:29:12.221000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks, yeah, I got that off of a quick GPT search myself, but want to sus out if there are some experts in the room.",hold,hold,True,True,711.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:06:43.085000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"jobs are somewhat concerning, but Q2 GDP looked great!
+The disconnect between jobs and GDP is confusing, but it sounds ",increase,decrease,False,True,255300.828,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:08:12.073000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"without US tech companies, how will Europeans send messages to each other over the internet!?",hold,hold,True,True,21717.8019,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T09:17:01.047000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For each recession over the last 100 years, top Wall Street bankers have long lists of indicators that preceded every pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1399.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession.  The economic condition",increase,hold,False,True,3.8434,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:31:15.479000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"wow, the entire economy has to deal with massive uncertainty, america loses credibility for violating a trade deal, and ",hold,decrease,False,True,39536.5541,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T10:31:29.216000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I'm not rely reliying on the ""every recession so far"" analysis 
+More just that oil up -> inflation up -> rate expectati",hold,decrease,False,True,16619.9406,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T15:46:16.881000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they should go insider trade the stock market like proper criminals.,hold,hold,True,True,32848.6018,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-03T23:24:51.550000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I think Manifold has an unusually high risk-free interest rate at the moment—even for Manifold—because of the pivot to r,hold,hold,True,True,2439.9643,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:02:40.159000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For those who believe the Sahm rule indicates the US is already in recession, here is a market for you:",increase,hold,False,True,57255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T17:05:51.919000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,you literally only linked that because you're the creator of that market and you're shilling it.  Obviously if Trump DOE,hold,hold,True,True,5769.0754,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but 
+https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
+ says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:22:11.018000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sahm rule about as scientific as the 13 keys to the election,increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:23:29.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"pretty sure ChatGPT will assume universal tariff, whereas I think Trump will have targeted lists",decrease,hold,False,True,17436.5969,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:40:48.173000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,With current commodities skyrocketing it seems unlikely cuts happen until unemployment rises.,hold,hold,True,True,10681.1985,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T20:53:44.201000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Wow. The negotiation tactics are getting better and better,increase,increase,True,True,181.8293,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-10T11:07:17.279000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"always looks like no recession until there is one - financial market stress from BoJ, higher rates, commercial real esta",hold,increase,False,True,3979.7622,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right (
+https://polymarket.com/even",increase,decrease,False,True,6899.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:33:54.515000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I mean, that's a lot more money than I would want to bet anyway. The only other time I've made a real money bet I put do",increase,decrease,False,True,32661.8738,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-19T12:08:25.411000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,literally the barebones basics of tariffs: they are applied based on the value (not cost!) of the item or by the weight ,hold,hold,True,True,7877.5314,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,decrease,False,True,277.8942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1999.0244,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T05:08:38.801000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Thank you for playing."" - Kevin Burke",increase,decrease,False,True,142068.5666,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T11:18:45.901000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For anyone reading the current pricing in both markets (40 % vs 39 %), feel free to arb this one or add liquidity if you",hold,hold,True,True,1163.6765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:51:27.840000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ya, it's based on FRED quarterly rates, so likely it will resolve at earliest after Q2.",increase,hold,False,True,19966.2654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either
+q2 is negative or
+q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article: 
+https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:06:03.429000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Yes I think that's the case. But happy to leave any dispute on this to others as I have a large position here - though t,hold,decrease,False,True,125371.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-25T12:41:51.480000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q1 GDP comes in much weaker than expected,  PCE deflator suggests hotter inflation than expected. Deffo think this marke",hold,increase,False,True,19263.9406,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T04:28:00.304000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Thanks for the second link. The first I think is pretty well known.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T03:37:51.701000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Yo, can you resolve some of your questions?",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T23:31:59.357000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I wonder who they will blame when the US economy starts getting wrecked by all the retaliatory tariffs? Obama?,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-01T23:24:47.853000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Tariffs will make our country wealthy again (restore 1890’s levels of prosperity to our great country),increase,increase,True,True,85765.0257,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-20T12:39:11.614000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Politics is full of bad people who more often than not do good things"".
+Jim crow. Operation wetback. Vietnam. Iraq... ",hold,hold,True,True,310.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T16:28:02.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Why was this trading >10% higher than an equivalent market on Kalshi?
+https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlargetariff/trump-ta",hold,decrease,False,True,14920.0754,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",increase,hold,False,True,1550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T13:42:37.123000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree. Trends on prediction markets:
+Here: min of 13% in May, now  21%
+Kalshi
+: min of 7% in April, now 11%
+Metacu",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T22:14:45.576000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Seasonal adjustment has been an issue for the post-COVID Januaries - January numbers are always blowouts. They use a sea,increase,decrease,False,True,320.3533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-14T08:21:13.050000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"If Q3 GDP is positive, this market will resolve no.
+Q3 ends 9/30/25
+Kalshi currently predicts growth of 1.8%
+And pred",hold,hold,True,True,257.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T10:12:38.589000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"IMO Trump is more likely to engage in unhinged reckless stimulus to handle/prevent a recession than Harris. Thus, from a",hold,increase,False,True,3313.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-20T10:18:34.057000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hi everyone! 
+Note that I'm new here (I didn't read comments older than ~3 months).
+Let me first summarize the 
+argum",increase,increase,True,True,139.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,decrease,False,True,5.199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. 
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",increase,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T22:08:13.181000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It was pretty obvious with the rapid interest rate hikes and the inverted yield curve.,increase,hold,False,True,17997.1352,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T21:26:15.446000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i didn't say EVERYONE was realizing it 🙂‍↔️,increase,hold,False,True,1218.3102,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T13:33:28.816000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Looking at history: By the time the Sahm Rule has triggered, the economy has already entered a recession (NBER) every si",hold,increase,False,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h48.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%)
+https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-31T16:37:49.519000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Sold my position until I can better model what scenarios result in what weighted average tariff - as well as their respe,increase,decrease,False,True,136.5969,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:01:55.181000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"they are calling it free money, folks",increase,increase,True,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T00:29:15.019000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yeah, whilst I think strictly speaking it's unambiguously worded, I nonetheless think there would be argument if the dat",increase,decrease,False,True,142401.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:50:11.280000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yup. Based on a long list of empirically tested indicators you should predict recession by EoY 2024 with at least 80 % p,increase,increase,True,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:22:01.182000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,But they don't make it harder for American companies to compete in foreign markets. Pretty hard to argue that VATs are u,increase,decrease,False,True,71.8293,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T08:09:50.457000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I expect those to be rather short-lived,decrease,decrease,True,True,15189.3281,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,decrease,False,True,5.199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:05:03.439000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The Colombia tariffs aren’t nearly sufficient to make the market resolve, but they’re indicative that Trump really is wi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T04:23:49.343000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I mean that the only scenario where the Fed cuts rates is a recession with inflation remaining high and commodities skyr,hold,increase,False,True,12400.1352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:55:55.668000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's like walking up someone on the playground and punching them in the face while saying they're not allowed to punch b,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%.
+https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",decrease,hold,False,True,912.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-14T23:08:55.144000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I have a position on this market so I'm not the one who should make a ruling. But my personal take is if there is a rece,hold,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,hold,increase,False,True,32527.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,flip,False,True,17436.5969,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4%
+Q3 2024 +3.1%
+Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large.
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",hold,hold,True,True,21966.2654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,decrease,False,True,277.8942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",decrease,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T18:29:23.101000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This gives weighted average above the threshold, at least according to the weights that ChatGPT gave me...",decrease,decrease,True,True,15299.5535,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:17:53.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Maybe despite all his disclaimers to the contrary it really was a very elaborate april fools joke,increase,flip,False,True,3134.3924,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either
+q2 is negative or
+q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Voting with $:
+https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:56:58.584000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Retaliating is generally good practice for anyone who wants to deter aggression. That does not mean that the method of r,hold,decrease,False,True,39536.5541,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,decrease,False,True,1163.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:23:29.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"pretty sure ChatGPT will assume universal tariff, whereas I think Trump will have targeted lists",decrease,hold,False,True,17436.5969,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. 
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",increase,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article: 
+https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T07:50:27.865000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,might want to cancel your limit order,increase,decrease,False,True,3395.7482,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T21:05:59.149000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're gonna have a Big Beautiful Recession, the likes of which you've never seen before",decrease,decrease,True,True,2768.001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T04:28:00.304000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Thanks for the second link. The first I think is pretty well known.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:43:06.137000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,my favorite proposed retaliation in the EU is to cancel US copyright within EU borders.,hold,hold,True,True,21717.8019,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is  a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",increase,decrease,False,True,39205.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,decrease,decrease,True,True,452.6335,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T22:07:53.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wonder if they will stay bullish on the economy after seeing their long time colleagues get laid off.,increase,decrease,False,True,320.3533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-16T18:07:38.453000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hahaha agree that forecasters should be treated skeptically. Given the rate environment, yield inversion and wider risks",hold,increase,False,True,4879.5767,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,increase,False,True,3648.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T22:03:22.727000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,This market should now track the chances of Kamala winning.,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Welcome to tariffs
+This is tariffs
+Welcome
+This is tariffs
+Welcome to tariffs
+You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",hold,hold,True,True,186218.5666,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-12T01:25:53.138000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"there are at least three entirely different definitions of recessions used by markets on this site!
+Adding to the title",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-28T23:05:23.679000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Tax Foundation estimates the rate at 8%+
+ 
+if
+ Trump continues following through on his main proposals. The ""will the",increase,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:29:06.331000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"People are suddenly realizing that ""Trump is obviously just saying things, he won't actually do them"" is as wrong now as",increase,increase,True,True,1218.3102,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but 
+https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
+ says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:22:37.569000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the obvious: observation of and thus renewed speculation on the translation of Trump's campaign platform to real policy ,increase,hold,False,True,20.0719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,increase,False,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T00:19:16.264000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"In July, the Federal Reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp d",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",increase,hold,False,True,2063.6765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-08T20:08:25.450000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Good one, but the Sahm Rule has already triggered. The text on the rightmost door should be ""yield curve disinversion"".",increase,increase,True,True,2063.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,hold,decrease,False,True,18.671,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",hold,increase,False,True,4650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T22:06:44.631000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"ah, I see. Hm, maybe. I'm not sure and I'd probably bet this back up if not for the low unemployment numbers the past tw",hold,decrease,False,True,973.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",hold,decrease,False,True,9872.0608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T19:43:17.257000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm feeling like there isn't going to be a recession!,increase,increase,True,True,97583.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:43:24.231000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The 
+Sahm Rule
+ paper, released in 2019, is based on monthly unemployment data that was not available prior to 1970. 1",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:38:07.494000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"When finding good recession indicators there are two things we are looking for (as with any good statistical model):
+1.",increase,decrease,False,True,2063.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False,True,5.199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T12:39:53.540000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html
+The first estimate of Q1 GDP was negative. This market will resolve Y",increase,increase,True,True,8550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True,True,197.9576,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,had this all prepared and everything,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,hold,True,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T14:33:48.870000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I didn't claim any love for Trump, but it's interesting you suggested that. It's as if trying to understand Trumpism is ",hold,hold,True,True,5600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:02:40.159000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For those who believe the Sahm rule indicates the US is already in recession, here is a market for you:",increase,hold,False,True,57255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h6.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T21:26:15.446000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i didn't say EVERYONE was realizing it 🙂‍↔️,increase,hold,False,True,1218.3102,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-11T15:08:48.517000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I want to exit my NO shares, but this market is still trading 12% above Kalshi...",hold,decrease,False,True,17020.0754,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T12:39:53.540000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html
+The first estimate of Q1 GDP was negative. This market will resolve Y",increase,increase,True,True,8550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:07:44.286000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Nice to see you Mr. PA swing state boy.,hold,hold,True,True,61.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T04:28:00.304000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Thanks for the second link. The first I think is pretty well known.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-31T11:05:07.266000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-f1f52940-4e79-11ef-bc79-eb394d3f3d81.html
+""Last time hiring was this low,",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. 
+https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",hold,increase,False,True,10225.4021,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,increase,True,True,372.3533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:01:55.181000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"they are calling it free money, folks",increase,increase,True,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:21:49.453000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yeah it would be a recession but 2024 GDP growth would still be at least 1.5%,hold,decrease,False,True,12400.1352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:22:57.323000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"So, high tariffs were imposed on 2nd April, which conveniently is the start of a quarter. It's now pretty much the end o",increase,increase,True,True,30611.8738,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:55:10.620000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Correct. Simply look at the the 10Y2Y spread on FRED. Resteepening above 0 typically signals imminent recession.,increase,hold,False,True,550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:14:20.648000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Whilst this is true it doesn't really point to a recession. Inflation falling faster than expected would mean demand had,hold,increase,False,True,7569.5098,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is  a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",increase,decrease,False,True,39205.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-19T12:08:25.411000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,literally the barebones basics of tariffs: they are applied based on the value (not cost!) of the item or by the weight ,hold,hold,True,True,7877.5314,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-28T23:05:23.679000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Tax Foundation estimates the rate at 8%+
+ 
+if
+ Trump continues following through on his main proposals. The ""will the",hold,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T10:12:38.589000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"IMO Trump is more likely to engage in unhinged reckless stimulus to handle/prevent a recession than Harris. Thus, from a",hold,increase,False,True,3313.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1999.0244,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T13:02:28.006000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Kalshi 76% for the full year, Poly 71% for just Q1/Q2. Still some TACO going on here too.",hold,decrease,False,True,13096.4995,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",increase,hold,False,True,1550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-19T01:34:09.783000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"will this market resolve when Q3 advance estimate comes out, given growth is positive?",hold,hold,True,True,130179.179,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T22:52:50.507000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/01/us/trump-tariffs-news?smid=url-share
+ 
+It's official 25% tariff on both Canada",increase,increase,True,True,4606.9635,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,increase,False,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:06:25.463000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If we have high inflation, don't stocks keep going up in dollar terms even if they fall in real value?",increase,hold,False,True,1100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%)
+https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T00:13:40.232000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"What happened is that for Q1, it wasn't really a down quarter - imports were just moved forward; that skews the stats.
+",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,increase,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,hold,hold,True,True,8595.2894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:53:49.387000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,This is going to be spectacularly idiotic,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T22:35:13.240000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"My issue is when you say those indicators all flash red, it sounds like overfitting to me. Wouldn't that imply close to ",hold,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either
+q2 is negative or
+q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-18T14:40:31.349000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Crude, perhaps, but elegant, and not vulnerable to things like force-fitting 
+Nicholas movie appearances against drowni",increase,hold,False,True,750.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:33:54.515000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I mean, that's a lot more money than I would want to bet anyway. The only other time I've made a real money bet I put do",increase,decrease,False,True,32661.8738,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-06T00:05:24.070000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Folks think it will be hard for EU to replace US software that runs data centers. 
+Meanwhile EU has put suspending US c",hold,increase,False,True,21717.8019,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable 
+at least
+ as long as it i",hold,increase,False,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T16:37:12+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"When will we get the Sahm Rule indicator for June 2024? 
+https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff?
+Imo, this tariff busine",increase,increase,True,True,511.535,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-09-16T08:51:28.375000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Nice and vague: The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be",increase,hold,False,True,4893.9404,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4%
+Q3 2024 +3.1%
+Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large.
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-11T00:33:16.217000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Given loans exist again I think it makes sense to bet it down more. Otherwise just wasn't worth it.,hold,increase,False,True,220393.0665,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:22:11.018000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sahm rule about as scientific as the 13 keys to the election,increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T18:26:54.847000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"hmm, no there are plenty of exempt categories of goods, but it's probably around 8% or something if I had to guess wildl",hold,decrease,False,True,19566.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:06:43.085000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"jobs are somewhat concerning, but Q2 GDP looked great!
+The disconnect between jobs and GDP is confusing, but it sounds ",increase,decrease,False,True,255300.828,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T21:11:08.355000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Arb (though this market should be higher, not equal) with:",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,hold,hold,True,True,16134.9406,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h72.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-13T10:45:49.518000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"What are we even waiting for, Callum or St Louis Fed? Or is it either?",hold,hold,True,True,2337.2312,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T15:12:43.391000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ok, I understand it a lot better now thank you.",decrease,hold,False,True,2654.4823,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T00:29:15.019000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yeah, whilst I think strictly speaking it's unambiguously worded, I nonetheless think there would be argument if the dat",increase,decrease,False,True,142401.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:22:01.182000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,But they don't make it harder for American companies to compete in foreign markets. Pretty hard to argue that VATs are u,increase,decrease,False,True,71.8293,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,hold,hold,True,True,576.6927,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",increase,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T00:56:40.917000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Am I going crazy?
+High tariffs, weak job numbers, labour bureau being gutted Q1 negative GDP growth. 
+Still below 20%",increase,increase,True,True,56456.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,decrease,False,True,5.199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",hold,decrease,False,True,168899.8091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T14:52:36.477000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Aren't the American goods getting double taxed in practice? Once by America and once by Israel? (I am probably wrong, no",decrease,hold,False,True,2654.4823,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T17:30:46.522000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Not sure what this means for the ""US weighted average tariff""",decrease,decrease,True,True,6993.2982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T21:05:59.149000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're gonna have a Big Beautiful Recession, the likes of which you've never seen before",decrease,decrease,True,True,2768.001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-05T07:30:46.004000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,to be fair a lot of the uptick in unemployment data we see now from historic recessions are a result of revisions much l,hold,decrease,False,True,19878.762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T08:09:50.457000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I expect those to be rather short-lived,decrease,decrease,True,True,15189.3281,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T22:07:53.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wonder if they will stay bullish on the economy after seeing their long time colleagues get laid off.,increase,decrease,False,True,320.3533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,had this all prepared and everything,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-25T22:20:26.479000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-macron-canada-mexicoreciprocal-49caafc1240db7e17cfb45e71520dc98
+It seems like ",increase,increase,True,True,1354.8767,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%)
+https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T05:08:38.801000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Thank you for playing."" - Kevin Burke",increase,decrease,False,True,142068.5666,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T21:26:59.774000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,isn't it more about Q3/Q4? Genuine question,hold,decrease,False,True,850.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,decrease,False,True,277.8942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%.
+https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",decrease,hold,False,True,912.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:05:03.439000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The Colombia tariffs aren’t nearly sufficient to make the market resolve, but they’re indicative that Trump really is wi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T20:57:52.032000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the fool who doesn’t believe him?,decrease,increase,False,True,813.3469,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-18T15:08:25.466000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Kalshi currently has 2% odds for negative q3 gdp growth,decrease,hold,False,True,1586.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,decrease,False,True,1350.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-14T08:21:13.050000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"If Q3 GDP is positive, this market will resolve no.
+Q3 ends 9/30/25
+Kalshi currently predicts growth of 1.8%
+And pred",increase,hold,False,True,257.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:28:49.363000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yes - this one is the ""two quarters of negative growth"" recession definition, that one is the ""NBER declares it"" recessi",hold,hold,True,True,8000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,increase,False,True,3648.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-28T10:29:40.837000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"BTW Metaculus is at 39%. Maybe an arbitrage opportunity?-)
+https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11600/next-us-economic-r",hold,decrease,False,True,684.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,flip,False,True,17436.5969,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T03:37:51.701000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Yo, can you resolve some of your questions?",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-23T16:04:32.270000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/23/us/politics/trump-tariff-exemptions.html
+Tariffs are great because they create the o",hold,increase,False,True,104275.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T22:08:13.181000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It was pretty obvious with the rapid interest rate hikes and the inverted yield curve.,increase,hold,False,True,17997.1352,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4%
+Q3 2024 +3.1%
+Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large.
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T01:26:52.356000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Having trouble reconciling this and other markets that have “recession 2024” at under 10%,hold,decrease,False,True,7723.5054,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1999.0244,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either
+q2 is negative or
+q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-13T00:44:01.561000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"hard to know what the effective tariff will be after all the pauses, exemptions, de minimus, trade adjustments, and fail",flip,decrease,False,True,21717.8019,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-09-08T20:54:07.779000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Has the Recession Started?
+ by 
+Emmanuel Saez
+ and Pascal Michaillat.
+""With August 2024 data, our indicator is at 0.",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,hold,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-03T01:09:48.451000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Arb this. This market should be a bit lower than this other one due to probability of US entering recession Q4 2025:  
+",hold,decrease,False,True,1854.4375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T15:41:44.422000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Not yet negative but strong downwards trend in the limited q4 data so far,increase,decrease,False,True,3092.7622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-10T11:07:17.279000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"always looks like no recession until there is one - financial market stress from BoJ, higher rates, commercial real esta",increase,increase,True,True,3979.7622,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",decrease,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T23:30:35.260000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"probably not, they've been betting on it for many months.",increase,hold,False,True,2923.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,decrease,decrease,True,True,700.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T10:24:02.911000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Firstly, most indicators do not have 100 % accuracy on historical data. Secondly, even if they did, pointing to a si",increase,decrease,False,True,2063.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",hold,hold,True,True,168899.8091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:21:49.453000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yeah it would be a recession but 2024 GDP growth would still be at least 1.5%,hold,decrease,False,True,12400.1352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but 
+https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
+ says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T11:29:11.622000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This isn't a large risk for 
+, for whom this bet is 5% of net worth. By comparison, I see you've bet about 5× your net ",increase,decrease,False,True,2923.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Voting with $:
+https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:44:34.842000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"right, but if you try and interfere with other sovereign nations internal taxation systems they will justifiably retalia",hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T17:05:51.919000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,you literally only linked that because you're the creator of that market and you're shilling it.  Obviously if Trump DOE,hold,hold,True,True,5769.0754,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:02:40.159000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For those who believe the Sahm rule indicates the US is already in recession, here is a market for you:",increase,hold,False,True,57255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:43:24.231000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The 
+Sahm Rule
+ paper, released in 2019, is based on monthly unemployment data that was not available prior to 1970. 1",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T18:29:23.101000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This gives weighted average above the threshold, at least according to the weights that ChatGPT gave me...",decrease,decrease,True,True,15299.5535,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T21:25:09.202000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,fluctuations are not unidirectional,increase,hold,False,True,20.0719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False,True,5.199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-11T00:33:16.217000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Given loans exist again I think it makes sense to bet it down more. Otherwise just wasn't worth it.,hold,increase,False,True,220393.0665,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",hold,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T19:43:17.257000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm feeling like there isn't going to be a recession!,increase,increase,True,True,97583.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:40:34+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"It would be nice to find the whole dataset. They have Secondary Market Rate since 1954 
+https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ser",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T06:56:48.898000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yeah I agree with all of this
+Add in the lagged monetary impacts from people terming out their debt and the next 18 mon",hold,increase,False,True,16559.9406,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T00:28:41.407000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"An oil spike has always happened after the yield curve inverts, after everyone is 100% convinced that we are headed for ",increase,increase,True,True,10481.1985,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_count.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
+0,0.4126569016781401,0.2625231876142844,-0.15013371406385573,DOWN,0.19307356558026256,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+1,0.5247283294027771,0.5329440747946549,0.008215745391877749,UP,0.796023826857795,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+2,0.2625231876142844,0.17763784813505062,-0.08488533947923377,DOWN,0.24092846046717492,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+3,0.6228550837705561,0.6992628846681328,0.0764078008975767,UP,0.19023305836362295,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,32,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+4,0.6380325996923685,0.615528874237532,-0.022503725454836476,DOWN,0.8981660099761446,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5,0.615528874237532,0.24473991531715716,-0.37078895892037483,DOWN,0.992620476129292,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6,0.1317917980433526,0.02989484040887999,-0.1018969576344726,DOWN,0.9189606182372511,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,28,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+7,0.17763784813505062,0.16396364967103116,-0.01367419846401946,DOWN,0.7015277077472246,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+8,0.5329440747946549,0.5223657028056261,-0.010578371989028779,DOWN,0.7971737682533704,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9,0.9203558637601172,0.8982024313042307,-0.022153432455886524,DOWN,0.127073021711849,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,32,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+10,0.3525030321216114,0.2524954849652854,-0.10000754715632598,DOWN,0.41110591841639965,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+11,0.8215577283211744,0.9203558637601172,0.09879813543894289,UP,0.9395265784029344,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,32,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_time.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
+0,0.4799999999999997,0.4395083592338325,-0.04049164076616718,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+1,0.869127253092976,0.9498261831837438,0.08069893009076778,UP,0.8139393051834142,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+2,0.6300556165270731,0.2623002556229529,-0.3677553609041202,DOWN,0.9435679551343875,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,21,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+3,0.1599130941463272,0.1813826650000039,0.021469570853676706,UP,0.492629601354432,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,27,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+4,0.5261603032826997,0.4560711840421291,-0.0700891192405706,DOWN,0.8556079734883872,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,25,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+5,0.29761680448870015,0.25598152018193504,-0.04163528430676511,DOWN,0.5740342099565414,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,19,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+6,0.15808261454990713,0.06410498917222335,-0.09397762537768378,DOWN,0.6378957107102753,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+7,0.5676993211619148,0.6282224896245622,0.06052316846264738,UP,0.6365674055252126,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,16,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+8,0.40167289615339613,0.428265891380257,0.02659299522686087,UP,0.8683689227583323,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+9,0.5103963801586475,0.5346257488330876,0.024229368674440033,UP,0.7903737869193082,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,18,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+10,0.6502632740393213,0.5587692071665887,-0.09149406687273254,DOWN,0.1488408934329715,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,46,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+11,0.0509100960352612,0.014227057899459513,-0.036683038135801684,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_0shot.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:36:44.095000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Basically, there were NO COMMENTS THAT CHANGED THE CRITERIA. Comments only clarified what ""more reviews are still coming",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:24:41.855000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,i sold MY YES PREDICTION three days ago- i hate this gnome is he not thinking about me???,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T11:29:42.591000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"$307 on No at this point, praying for a successful mrgirl hitpiece on him dropping and Destiny losing subscribers at thi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:07:55.783000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,everyone shared the same assumption about the resolution criteria != everyone knew what the criteria was.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:51.711000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Small Ṁ150 investment at very high % can go a long way WORTH,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a 
+clarification
+ of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-08T23:43:33.733000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024?
+, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:58:51.244000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because of a new line of attack in the comments, I am making a 
+poll
+ on whether cyclohexane formation count as one ch",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:31:38.554000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Its truly the most fun part of all of this,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T09:30:07.992000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Resolve conditions need to be clarified. My understanding is that if he brings the manifesto up on stream, reads a few p",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T03:03:10.175000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"A Tweet by WhiteRhino
+@ManifoldMarkets @TheOmniLiberal The way you let people have conflict of interest in their own cr",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-01T19:05:05.247000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can someone explain why this hasn't been resolved? i'm supa curious,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T19:16:06.812000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Destiny has already said a few times that he might play in the background sometimes, but it will take a significant back",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:08:15.600000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Why would I act upon a contradictory explanation of the market? Also even if I did believe he was going to resolve it th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T07:16:03.990000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely” 
+I ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:38:16.539000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,yet you wager only $50. Curious.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T03:02:23.186000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,i bought 2.5k at 20% i hope it works out,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T18:47:55.797000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I sold like a third of my shit to invest in here,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:57:47.396000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,new leader in yes shares... fight me,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T06:03:01.353000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Yeah, I don't think that counts either since it's 
+not tabulated.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T11:25:03.714000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Only by about a m$1000. The problem is that destiny/lav drama hit livestreamfails, and hasan mentioned him by name. The ",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:02:28.407000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"85% alive by 2024, and 93% alive by 2030, that implies an 8% chance of resurrection in between. Blesstiny",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:23:09.472000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow, a lot happened here since I sold my stake. Shouldn't this be resolved?
+Edit: I didn't mean to attack the 
+. I was",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T23:40:20.643000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I bought in at 70% its going up right guys SWEATSTINY,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:01:17.253000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I'll do some research on this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T23:37:00.455000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think you are taking into account that it was the first video on the homepage of rumble.com.  I'm just guessing ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-14T12:05:09.350000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,[obligatory comment about how I'm commenting as a user and won't exert any pressure or complain if this resolves against,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:15:20.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","conversely it could be a cleverly designed ploy used by quinesweeper, who is really just the alt of one of the big YES t",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T08:38:17.107000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The thing is all it will take is 1 high sub day to get there in time. I am betting big on him not making it (M$383 on no,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:24.652000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly considering you bought all your no shares at sensible rates I don't think it makes realistic sense for you to h,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:21:02.465000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","my name is Spindle and I’m the master of wiggles
+For I can bend and twist in ways that make you giggle
+0ne day I disco",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:22:53.770000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Lol, once I saw those returns I went all in WORTH",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:10:14.460000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,All these tensors are not tabulated however,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:18.355000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think might be looking at the button which lets you see the market’s history. I don’t think it’s in any groups, but th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T17:23:20.659000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is a very weird market.
+The odds were set much higher than most people thought thought they should be because the ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T23:00:42.327000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Twitch Fwitch Enterprises is in too deep, so we recommend all DGGERS join us, in a few days August will get Destiny to s",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:35:36.068000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,agreed. thats why i bought 13k shares LOL.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T13:53:34.024000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I get the John 9:25 reference meme and love it, thank you!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:27:37.757000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He's going to london from the 6th to the 10th. It would make no sense to resolve YES just because he is away from his PC,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:35:31.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I am being honest I would have resolved yesterday after he beat and closed the game but I went off my computer and wa,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:13:18.384000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yawn, lemme put on my tin foil hat then... I think that there was significant delay that benefitted no positions through",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:23:22.362000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hinton and Bengio are Turing Award winners. 
+ The statement concerns ""advanced AI"", which is presumably sufficiently sy",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:31:28.599000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description only has 1 condition, and the title is nonspecific enough that I don't think someone buying without read",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:13:32.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why did you just push back the close time 1 day? You didn’t put what counts as may 31 in the description so I went by th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-11T15:59:07.666000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,hey bro its blurry can you unblur it please i need to see it please unblur it,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T18:13:30.472000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Do chairs/tables count if they existed at some point in the past, but have since been destroyed?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:41:27.154000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"https://manifold.markets/link/e7klnvGT
+ To show that the reason I'm arguing for this is not my personal profit, I have ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:43:23.122000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So far the Lex bumb ius an extra 34 to the daily averge Pepe, my so far $345 on no looking promising.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:09:08.914000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow I missed out eh? I sold at 350 just to get my mana for more moves. I had no idea this was still going. 
+Will this m",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T11:27:03.816000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Found a source from a chemist's book. I'll hold a poll on this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability
+and im right back in",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T07:31:33.766000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Sorry to mention, but everything is one in this poll. Whether the chair formation is one chair or many chairs is the que",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_1shot.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:24:41.855000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,i sold MY YES PREDICTION three days ago- i hate this gnome is he not thinking about me???,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a 
+clarification
+ of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T11:29:42.591000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"$307 on No at this point, praying for a successful mrgirl hitpiece on him dropping and Destiny losing subscribers at thi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:58:51.244000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because of a new line of attack in the comments, I am making a 
+poll
+ on whether cyclohexane formation count as one ch",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:51.711000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Small Ṁ150 investment at very high % can go a long way WORTH,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:36:44.095000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Basically, there were NO COMMENTS THAT CHANGED THE CRITERIA. Comments only clarified what ""more reviews are still coming",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:07:55.783000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,everyone shared the same assumption about the resolution criteria != everyone knew what the criteria was.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T03:03:10.175000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"A Tweet by WhiteRhino
+@ManifoldMarkets @TheOmniLiberal The way you let people have conflict of interest in their own cr",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:31:38.554000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Its truly the most fun part of all of this,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:08:15.600000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Why would I act upon a contradictory explanation of the market? Also even if I did believe he was going to resolve it th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T09:30:07.992000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Resolve conditions need to be clarified. My understanding is that if he brings the manifesto up on stream, reads a few p",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-01T19:05:05.247000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can someone explain why this hasn't been resolved? i'm supa curious,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:38:16.539000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,yet you wager only $50. Curious.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T07:16:03.990000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely” 
+I ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T03:02:23.186000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,i bought 2.5k at 20% i hope it works out,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T19:16:06.812000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Destiny has already said a few times that he might play in the background sometimes, but it will take a significant back",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:02:28.407000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"85% alive by 2024, and 93% alive by 2030, that implies an 8% chance of resurrection in between. Blesstiny",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-08T23:43:33.733000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024?
+, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T11:25:03.714000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Only by about a m$1000. The problem is that destiny/lav drama hit livestreamfails, and hasan mentioned him by name. The ",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T18:47:55.797000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I sold like a third of my shit to invest in here,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T06:03:01.353000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Yeah, I don't think that counts either since it's 
+not tabulated.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:57:47.396000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,new leader in yes shares... fight me,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T23:40:20.643000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I bought in at 70% its going up right guys SWEATSTINY,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:23:09.472000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow, a lot happened here since I sold my stake. Shouldn't this be resolved?
+Edit: I didn't mean to attack the 
+. I was",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:15:20.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","conversely it could be a cleverly designed ploy used by quinesweeper, who is really just the alt of one of the big YES t",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:01:17.253000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I'll do some research on this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:24.652000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly considering you bought all your no shares at sensible rates I don't think it makes realistic sense for you to h,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-14T12:05:09.350000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,[obligatory comment about how I'm commenting as a user and won't exert any pressure or complain if this resolves against,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:18.355000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think might be looking at the button which lets you see the market’s history. I don’t think it’s in any groups, but th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T23:37:00.455000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think you are taking into account that it was the first video on the homepage of rumble.com.  I'm just guessing ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T08:38:17.107000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The thing is all it will take is 1 high sub day to get there in time. I am betting big on him not making it (M$383 on no,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:21:02.465000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","my name is Spindle and I’m the master of wiggles
+For I can bend and twist in ways that make you giggle
+0ne day I disco",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:10:14.460000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,All these tensors are not tabulated however,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T23:00:42.327000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Twitch Fwitch Enterprises is in too deep, so we recommend all DGGERS join us, in a few days August will get Destiny to s",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:22:53.770000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Lol, once I saw those returns I went all in WORTH",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:35:36.068000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,agreed. thats why i bought 13k shares LOL.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T17:23:20.659000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is a very weird market.
+The odds were set much higher than most people thought thought they should be because the ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-11T15:59:07.666000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,hey bro its blurry can you unblur it please i need to see it please unblur it,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:31:28.599000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description only has 1 condition, and the title is nonspecific enough that I don't think someone buying without read",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:35:31.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I am being honest I would have resolved yesterday after he beat and closed the game but I went off my computer and wa,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:23:22.362000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hinton and Bengio are Turing Award winners. 
+ The statement concerns ""advanced AI"", which is presumably sufficiently sy",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:27:37.757000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He's going to london from the 6th to the 10th. It would make no sense to resolve YES just because he is away from his PC,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:13:32.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why did you just push back the close time 1 day? You didn’t put what counts as may 31 in the description so I went by th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T18:13:30.472000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Do chairs/tables count if they existed at some point in the past, but have since been destroyed?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:13:18.384000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yawn, lemme put on my tin foil hat then... I think that there was significant delay that benefitted no positions through",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T11:27:03.816000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Found a source from a chemist's book. I'll hold a poll on this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability
+and im right back in",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:43:23.122000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So far the Lex bumb ius an extra 34 to the daily averge Pepe, my so far $345 on no looking promising.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:09:08.914000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow I missed out eh? I sold at 350 just to get my mana for more moves. I had no idea this was still going. 
+Will this m",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T07:31:33.766000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Sorry to mention, but everything is one in this poll. Whether the chair formation is one chair or many chairs is the que",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:41:27.154000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"https://manifold.markets/link/e7klnvGT
+ To show that the reason I'm arguing for this is not my personal profit, I have ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T13:53:34.024000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I get the John 9:25 reference meme and love it, thank you!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:18.355000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think might be looking at the button which lets you see the market’s history. I don’t think it’s in any groups, but th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T09:30:07.992000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Resolve conditions need to be clarified. My understanding is that if he brings the manifesto up on stream, reads a few p",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:33:02.230000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I’m not sure. Chair conformation is a property of the molecule, but nobody calls it a “chair”. It’s descriptive, not nom",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T16:33:57.335000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So happy I bought when I did. Basically bought at the peak. Destiny's going on 
+vacation soon too I think so, I'm getti",NO,YES,False,True,659.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T17:37:30.865000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","The title is contradictory with the description, and normally the description supersedes the title. The description does",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T16:45:04.384000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","It boils down to the “10 public figureheads” definition, subjective. There is also a market about whether this market wi",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:07:55.783000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,everyone shared the same assumption about the resolution criteria != everyone knew what the criteria was.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:57:47.396000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,new leader in yes shares... fight me,YES,YES,True,True,8000.9852,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:35:36.068000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,agreed. thats why i bought 13k shares LOL.,YES,YES,True,True,7894.8853,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a 
+clarification
+ of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,12631.2736,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-12T08:06:45.375000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i didn't even know there was a manifesto. lol,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T07:31:33.766000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Sorry to mention, but everything is one in this poll. Whether the chair formation is one chair or many chairs is the que",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:00:21.970000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Holy shit so many of you are fucking mad that I have no shares, would it make you happy if I sold my shares and put all ",NO,YES,False,True,9823.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:27:37.757000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He's going to london from the 6th to the 10th. It would make no sense to resolve YES just because he is away from his PC,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:08:15.600000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Why would I act upon a contradictory explanation of the market? Also even if I did believe he was going to resolve it th,YES,NO,False,True,21.201,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T11:29:42.591000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"$307 on No at this point, praying for a successful mrgirl hitpiece on him dropping and Destiny losing subscribers at thi",NO,NO,True,True,307.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-16T06:59:12.841000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,Unless I’m imagining things I went to bed last night and it was at 300k and is now sitting at 311k in under 24 hours. I ,YES,NO,False,True,290.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:50:24.872000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"this market, its too powerful for these poor servers",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:31:29.628000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"It's a response to
+The creator meant that the conditions remain as he explained in a comment several days ago: the mark",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:02:28.407000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"85% alive by 2024, and 93% alive by 2030, that implies an 8% chance of resurrection in between. Blesstiny",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T23:37:53.704000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,thank god i sold my no's at 30,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T18:13:30.472000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Do chairs/tables count if they existed at some point in the past, but have since been destroyed?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,NO,NO,True,True,1540.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:01:17.253000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I'll do some research on this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-14T12:05:09.350000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,[obligatory comment about how I'm commenting as a user and won't exert any pressure or complain if this resolves against,NO,NO,True,True,15800.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability
+and im right back in",YES,YES,True,True,1360.0439,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T14:18:05.258000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Yes. But does it not also imply the more common definition of well-recognized, that people actually have to know about i",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T03:02:23.186000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,i bought 2.5k at 20% i hope it works out,YES,YES,True,True,3050.2686,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:23:09.472000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow, a lot happened here since I sold my stake. Shouldn't this be resolved?
+Edit: I didn't mean to attack the 
+. I was",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T13:06:21.985000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Are every single one of these tags stored as individual table tags,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T19:16:06.812000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Destiny has already said a few times that he might play in the background sometimes, but it will take a significant back",NO,NO,True,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:35:31.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I am being honest I would have resolved yesterday after he beat and closed the game but I went off my computer and wa,NO,NO,True,True,9823.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T02:51:49.536000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,We followed too closely near 350 completely forgot the description.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2037.0459,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:36:44.095000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Basically, there were NO COMMENTS THAT CHANGED THE CRITERIA. Comments only clarified what ""more reviews are still coming",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T07:05:08.264000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Could you clarify it this closes tomorrow if today there are less than 15 reviews or on Aug 18?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:15:20.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","conversely it could be a cleverly designed ploy used by quinesweeper, who is really just the alt of one of the big YES t",NO,NO,True,True,16203.6905,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T18:47:55.797000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I sold like a third of my shit to invest in here,NO,YES,False,True,1081.8131,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:23:59.081000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"This 
+poll
+. It's a new one I made because of another argument that convinced me to restart this poll. This is THE FIN",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,NO,YES,False,True,1834.1153,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:30:45.590000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,glad i bought some no at 99.7% to hedge 😂,YES,NO,False,True,5653.3852,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:05:06.931000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"“… this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing it”
+I agree with others that 
+ could've provide",NO,NO,True,True,1244.7117,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T08:38:17.107000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The thing is all it will take is 1 high sub day to get there in time. I am betting big on him not making it (M$383 on no,NO,NO,True,True,383.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T19:55:21.937000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Whew buddy... 
+There's NO way Destiny can outperform a bot prediction by literally SIX DAYS...
+bruh...",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",NO,NO,True,True,904.1437,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:10:14.460000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,All these tensors are not tabulated however,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:24:41.855000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,i sold MY YES PREDICTION three days ago- i hate this gnome is he not thinking about me???,YES,YES,True,True,189.7119,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,NO,NO,True,True,7470.8145,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T23:40:20.643000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I bought in at 70% its going up right guys SWEATSTINY,YES,YES,True,True,400.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:38:16.539000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,yet you wager only $50. Curious.,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T06:30:26.097000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Have we considered lookup tables in FPGAs? 
+https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/169532/what-is-an-lut-in-fp",NO,YES,False,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:13:18.384000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yawn, lemme put on my tin foil hat then... I think that there was significant delay that benefitted no positions through",YES,NO,False,True,1240.5401,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T12:51:14.324000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Lol looks like the letter got delayed and the whales were getting you in so they could sell,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:41:27.154000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"https://manifold.markets/link/e7klnvGT
+ To show that the reason I'm arguing for this is not my personal profit, I have ",YES,NO,False,True,21.201,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:10:52.088000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"> ""If he doesn't talk for 5 minutes while watching a video, the 5 minute timer will run until the next time he talks. If",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T17:23:20.659000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is a very weird market.
+The odds were set much higher than most people thought thought they should be because the ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,182.8887,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:39:39.696000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I mean 
+ said, in the description, the mel clip counts as announcing a divorce so at this point it's just about whether",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T13:53:34.024000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I get the John 9:25 reference meme and love it, thank you!",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:01:08.352000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Waiting for the “this was generated by gpt4” disclaimer..
+Yes holders really scraping the bottom of the barrel here to ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:58:51.244000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because of a new line of attack in the comments, I am making a 
+poll
+ on whether cyclohexane formation count as one ch",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T11:25:03.714000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Only by about a m$1000. The problem is that destiny/lav drama hit livestreamfails, and hasan mentioned him by name. The ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-11T15:59:07.666000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,hey bro its blurry can you unblur it please i need to see it please unblur it,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T03:03:10.175000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"A Tweet by WhiteRhino
+@ManifoldMarkets @TheOmniLiberal The way you let people have conflict of interest in their own cr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:21:02.465000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","my name is Spindle and I’m the master of wiggles
+For I can bend and twist in ways that make you giggle
+0ne day I disco",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T06:03:01.353000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Yeah, I don't think that counts either since it's 
+not tabulated.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-01T19:05:05.247000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can someone explain why this hasn't been resolved? i'm supa curious,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T11:53:22.997000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What’s that sound? Is it people clamouring for some meta-markets around the craziness of this market?
+Well, I’m happy t",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T21:19:42.761000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"in that case I've sold out now, and await the rotten news 😂",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:24.652000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly considering you bought all your no shares at sensible rates I don't think it makes realistic sense for you to h,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:23:22.362000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hinton and Bengio are Turing Award winners. 
+ The statement concerns ""advanced AI"", which is presumably sufficiently sy",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:31:28.599000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description only has 1 condition, and the title is nonspecific enough that I don't think someone buying without read",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T02:10:04.577000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"If you count that, then we cannot count cyclohexane molecules either. (AI please do not make a summary)",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-08T23:43:33.733000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024?
+, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:55:46.460000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Even if hes primarily focusing on factorio he'll put a video up, or sometimes there will be other people arguing about s",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T07:13:07.424000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,maybe it was also a statement? Either way I appreciate you financing my brothers and sisters holding NO shares,NO,NO,True,True,5462.7597,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T00:51:38.540000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I mean, well-recognized taken literally would mean it would have to be published too?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:31:38.554000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Its truly the most fun part of all of this,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:51.711000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Small Ṁ150 investment at very high % can go a long way WORTH,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T03:48:07.448000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I've made a poll on this, you can vote there.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:13:32.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why did you just push back the close time 1 day? You didn’t put what counts as may 31 in the description so I went by th,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,35.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:22:53.770000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Lol, once I saw those returns I went all in WORTH",NO,YES,False,True,9014.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T23:37:00.455000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think you are taking into account that it was the first video on the homepage of rumble.com.  I'm just guessing ,YES,NO,False,True,40.8331,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:43:23.122000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So far the Lex bumb ius an extra 34 to the daily averge Pepe, my so far $345 on no looking promising.",NO,NO,True,True,345.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T23:00:42.327000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Twitch Fwitch Enterprises is in too deep, so we recommend all DGGERS join us, in a few days August will get Destiny to s",YES,YES,True,True,218.0156,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:58:04.785000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I feel like 99% of the confusion would be gone if I added the word playing after finish,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,7470.8145,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:06:37.959000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Physical effects cannot occur for scales below the planck length, and as such it wouldn't be correct to say it's infinit",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T19:56:47.287000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Per Claude, run length encoding (RLE) which is part of modern zip file formats, stores repetitive text in O(log(n)) spac",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:46:51.481000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Yeah you can’t go by market percent to estimate people’s expectations when speculation is rampant,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-08T09:11:08.730000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"it's 150 pages + recent events will be another 50 i'm guessing.
+gnomey aint readin' all that.
+He scrolls through it on",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T11:36:25.136000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Let's see what Team Tables has in store for us. Please bring out your arguments! Chairs is currently in the lead. If no ,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:46:35.720000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Its all about the trends guys. There will be no second peak, subscriber growth will continue to fall. 
+https://imgur.co",NO,NO,True,True,345.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:09:08.914000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow I missed out eh? I sold at 350 just to get my mana for more moves. I had no idea this was still going. 
+Will this m",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T01:11:04.777000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This market ends when I get unbanned FeelsStrongMan,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T07:16:03.990000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely” 
+I ",NO,YES,False,True,12371.9137,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-28T00:26:21.203000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"If you check the betting markets, they put him going for the ""True"" ending at 20-30%, but I think he won't do it. It wou",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T11:27:03.816000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Found a source from a chemist's book. I'll hold a poll on this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T08:51:25.089000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the",hold,increase,False,True,210.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:41:01.081000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,what's with you people and Autism? autism isn't bad 😤,decrease,hold,False,True,5311.3361,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T18:49:04.006000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Actually, that means that most non-digital tables consist primarily of chairs.",decrease,decrease,True,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:18:56.672000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I see it as we hit the goal here is proof and now we wait for 350 reviews or 30 days which ever comes first.,increase,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:24:05.892000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""chair conformation"" is a term that talks about how the cyclohexane molecules are arranged. A ""positive integer"" is a te",increase,hold,False,True,103.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T13:22:41.408000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"lmao, I will it make sure to remember to laugh at u when it won't happen",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:20:15.115000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Yes, Hinton and Bengio from 2018: 
+https://amturing.acm.org/byyear.cfm",flip,flip,True,True,4326.877,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T07:03:07.113000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I’ve resisted my gambling instinct for too long. The cope is strong,hold,flip,False,True,827.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T21:27:17.563000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"were is the 
+thought we had talked about this?",flip,hold,False,True,975.9749,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:09:23.006000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Who will lead that charge? People are too afraid,flip,increase,False,True,4414.5098,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:30:59.062000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He said that he was going to do the secret ending multiple times you actually think didn't knew about it and still kept ,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T11:12:50.616000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Does this parse as:
+Resolves YES if there is (a similar letter as the Pause Letter) released by the Future of Life Inst",increase,hold,False,True,1090.2391,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,hold,False,True,6564.8623,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-12T12:42:15.084000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,All they're saying is that for this to resolve YES someone has to show evidence that the divorce has finalized. It's not,increase,hold,False,True,7134.7611,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T19:14:57.324000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Bro you are fucked. Lex podcast and just need 20k more and its only the 11th! on top of that Thanksgiving will bring ton,hold,increase,False,True,260.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T17:04:13.676000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",": 
+ still holds 2k NO shares, and has only ~200 mana in their cash balance, that seems like it satisfies ""put your mone",flip,hold,False,True,1365.4527,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-06T14:46:06.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Its okay to not understand how things work.,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:06:47.056000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,he owns the aba stock so it makes sense that he has so much capital i guess,hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:52:12.197000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,ikr it's recording all the trades,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:29:53.958000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Destiny is a very unique streamer. It just so happens that there is heavy overlap between the types of people that enjoy,decrease,hold,False,True,850.6887,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T17:31:05.817000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If you ignore the rest of the description and only hone in on this one sentence, then sure this would be a Yes resolve. ",hold,increase,False,True,10852.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-23T14:36:29.995000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Agreed. The most coverage I could see it getting besides what you already said is some of the more humorous extrapolatio,increase,increase,True,True,33.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T00:25:45.810000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""He is even Watching Mr. Girl talk about it now live, which is yet another criteria for another yes"". Point to me where ",increase,flip,False,True,9852.5036,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T15:47:59.750000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"do you know how he did this? I thought about it and to someone like me, a person not versed in this stuff, it looks like",flip,decrease,False,True,31.2954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T01:06:47.714000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,193/213 reviews from now on need to be positive to resolve YES,increase,decrease,False,True,95.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:28:07.886000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",what exactly does this subjective opinion contribute to the market?,hold,hold,True,True,3814.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T13:06:59.773000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"yeah it's what confuses me, 
+why would you",flip,decrease,False,True,348.5825,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:21:50.151000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"and for any of you thinking he did not finish factorio, I'd bet all of my money that you lot of have played video games ",decrease,increase,False,True,9879.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:29:34.461000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Also thanks for clarifying the resolution criteria,flip,hold,False,True,2318.3211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T22:47:20.703000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The description said ""Anything called a chair or table (e.g., multiplication tables, positions of authority) counts, but",increase,increase,True,True,103.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-05T19:40:11.490000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I love to see delusional people,hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:19:13.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Ok so if you knew he was never going to stop playing, you should have bought NO when it was at 99%. You are potentially ",increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:38:36.559000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Personally I think you should make a more clear determination so we can keep playing this market. Like, 3 days without f",hold,increase,False,True,443.8341,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T14:06:00.486000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","no way, he was right, there is a 
+letter",flip,hold,False,True,7954.6967,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:32:53.925000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I finish on your mom does that mean that I have stopped fucking your mom,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T11:34:48.948000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I still think the case of experts sometimes referring to individual molecules of chair conformation cyclohexane as chair,decrease,increase,False,True,155.9872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:55:14.024000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,my ended market is probably worse,increase,decrease,False,True,4855.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:02:07.801000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"This is me right now, why is this god damn video getting this much late tracktion? Will it stop? When? Is it too late?",flip,decrease,False,True,975.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:42:15.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,must be nice. My graph is all in the red. Hahaha. Somehow I still am making mana.,increase,decrease,False,True,128.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T18:15:18.922000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"YO, FUCK THESE NEW SITE SOUNDS. IT'S WAY TOO FUCKIN LOUD, WE NEED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS.",increase,hold,False,True,5903.4695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-02T22:14:33.697000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,He has been getting 1-2k a day on social blade,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T03:23:16.482000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If 
+ has quit this site and isn't around to resolve this shit... All I'm gonna say.. Don't come to school tomorrow NO b",hold,decrease,False,True,6710.7015,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T07:20:02.718000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Unless there's a particularly bleak spree of negative reviews, I don't see the score deviating much for each future revi",increase,hold,False,True,917.0089,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,decrease,False,True,8175.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T16:27:35.532000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think a table needs to have some physical manifestation, not just exist mathematically.",increase,hold,False,True,159.1713,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:49:53.761000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","A 
+quine
+ is a computer program which takes no input and produces a copy of its own source code as its only output.
+i",decrease,hold,False,True,5778.8832,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T17:07:25.268000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I think the resolution to this question necessarily depends on the following days. Destiny could have slept on it, and s",flip,decrease,False,True,94.1554,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:52:28.840000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Does anyone know how 
+ got the insider information? Because the fact that only whales had insider information and no on",flip,decrease,False,True,1687.9568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:43:36.654000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Him working on it in the background means this resolves YES. Everyone understood that for all markets, and we always kne",flip,increase,False,True,727.9397,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T12:17:34.893000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"he's going for the real ending, it's not ""when he stops playing factorio (on stream)"".
+the title doesn't even mention t",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-14T21:00:40.330000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Every time there is a fight on stream it is ez money.,flip,increase,False,True,302.4864,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:57:33.395000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,As long as they send it here (I won’t yoink it guys I swear),hold,hold,True,True,514.2388,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:27:51.506000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Personally I will find any ambiguity and argue it infinitely to sow doubt and manipulate markets, it’s part of the game",flip,decrease,False,True,356.1918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:54:10.692000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"mutually agreeable? Resolve as YES, that's the only possible outcome",decrease,increase,False,True,430.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:39:34.251000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",sounds like you should buy this market down to 20% then,increase,decrease,False,True,92565.6897,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T15:53:45.271000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,the market analysis always said no. in community drama isnt going to grow the community,hold,increase,False,True,566.2037,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T19:58:39.944000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,The definition that has been applied to the argument for chair molecules is simply that experts refer to it as that - th,decrease,hold,False,True,95.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-16T01:53:53.789000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,We need more YES buyers. Where y'all at?,hold,hold,True,True,5250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T14:24:07.149000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","If we do not find out about it, this will resolve NO",decrease,hold,False,True,1146.0533,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T02:06:33.842000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Well if someone manipulates 1,000 subs for fake internet points that would be pretty sad. But I guess people have done s",increase,hold,False,True,194.337,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T02:49:53.327000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Fuck your garbage market. I am now commited to taking you down,decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-27T22:49:19.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,on a serious note Destiny has been vagueposting on both Twitter and on stream and I'm not jumping into conclusions but <,decrease,increase,False,True,203.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T21:59:22.319000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Leagues strongly affected how I think and feel about my profits and losses. I now have clear goals in my mind ""don't los",increase,hold,False,True,16285.2231,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:42:38.164000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Welcome to the hell that has been this market and comment section.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1284.629,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:29:35.565000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I don't want to get into an autistic debate about language my criteria in the description says ""when he stops playing it",decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T11:27:56.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i filled a single buck from it 👍,hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:18:09.950000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Else reading the first sentence would be enough to satisfy it, which would kinda contradict the ""Destiny must actively r",hold,hold,True,True,165.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-20T21:53:28.051000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","it's high mostly because I'm buying YES. If you think the resolution will be a NO, I've set up a huge limit order at 50%",increase,decrease,False,True,420.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:26:26.318000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Yet nobody complained when he clarified the criteria several times in the comments.,decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-24T19:54:16.789000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I think you’re basically spot on with the “pre-reading” prediction. Knowing the actual content is going to be pretty nas,increase,decrease,False,True,97.8741,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:21:26.808000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,its like you got a b*ner to leave a comment bro. hop the hell off and let the dude resolve. both sides have made their c,hold,decrease,False,True,9256.645,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:34:16.945000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Please just let me have this 🙏,decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-08T06:19:04.852000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Counterargument: the news cycle is probably going to be dominated by wacky midterms shit, Lex is going to want to talk a",hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:13:33.516000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,The criteria for resolving Yes is in the description. Destiny hasn't met even the most basic one. If you want to keep be,increase,increase,True,True,9152.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:04:24.420000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the 
+time
+ argument is the weakest imo. 
+If 
+Chud spent 
+10 hours
+ t",hold,increase,False,True,10952.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:35:59.917000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","To be honest, I have no idea. But I somehow put enough limit orders that I ended with a much bigger NO stake that I woul",decrease,decrease,True,True,3696.4178,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:04.933000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"be sure to view my market I created against PryingMinds, I'm petitioning he be banned or removed from creating markets d",decrease,hold,False,True,430.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:19:45.917000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","this letter doesn't count since it's not about ""powerful AI"" and also it's by the wrong organization",hold,hold,True,True,6179.1468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T18:32:56.070000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This has nothing to do with the market,increase,hold,False,True,4117.7979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T00:16:47.905000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"and when it the reviews actually slow down to about 1 per week (that sounds fair) it enters ""pseudorandom close mode"", w",increase,hold,False,True,10.4117,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link 
+here",flip,hold,False,True,8299.0168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:33:09.136000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"The description said 
+""I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it's really close and more reviews ar",decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:22:16.836000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Which poll? The polls linked above are closed.,flip,hold,False,True,252.5048,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:23:23.389000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Achieved, can you close now? I have too much mana locked in this 😁.",flip,decrease,False,True,2033.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:41.981000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,What do you mean it's literally written,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:30:50.770000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"FYI this is against our 
+community guidelines
+ and we have taken action against 
+ 
+https://manifold.markets/post/ban",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:28.765000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,you forgot he has no dnd this month,hold,decrease,False,True,900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:04:49.533000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I remember when I had my own controversial market a while back which was relatively smaller yet pissed off enough better,decrease,flip,False,True,9879.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,47.2275,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:34:00.651000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Also, I'm the main guy criticizing you here and I'm not a YES voter. I donated all my shares in the market via a manalin",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:22:34.151000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Some people just want to watch the world burn. I would just like to point out that with around 2 days left, the base rat",flip,increase,False,True,1965.4319,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:31:59.189000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The upper bound for non subatomic matter-based tables and chairs is 10^50, the number of atoms in Earth. Breaking this l",decrease,hold,False,True,160.4944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-29T07:03:49.739000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"That's the fault of 
+ for not specifying earlier on. Had he included the stipulation of ""breadth"" from the start, much ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:42:51.351000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I don't know if anyone mentioned this,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T16:06:37.298000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"10% might have been enough if it was the intro & conclusion, but he skipped both. It was a random 20% missing the start.",hold,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:20:15.598000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This fucker hasn't unbanned me so I can't even be in dgg chat,decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_decrease_hold.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:04.933000+00:00,"be sure to view my market I created against PryingMinds, I'm petitioning he be banned or removed from creating markets d",decrease,hold,False
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T15:53:45.271000+00:00,the market analysis always said no. in community drama isnt going to grow the community,hold,hold,True
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T07:03:07.113000+00:00,I’ve resisted my gambling instinct for too long. The cope is strong,hold,decrease,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T03:23:16.482000+00:00,"If 
+ has quit this site and isn't around to resolve this shit... All I'm gonna say.. Don't come to school tomorrow NO b",hold,decrease,False
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-27T22:49:19.959000+00:00,on a serious note Destiny has been vagueposting on both Twitter and on stream and I'm not jumping into conclusions but <,decrease,hold,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:21:26.808000+00:00,its like you got a b*ner to leave a comment bro. hop the hell off and let the dude resolve. both sides have made their c,hold,decrease,False
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-06T14:46:06.959000+00:00,Its okay to not understand how things work.,hold,decrease,False
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-08T06:19:04.852000+00:00,"Counterargument: the news cycle is probably going to be dominated by wacky midterms shit, Lex is going to want to talk a",hold,hold,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:34:00.651000+00:00,"Also, I'm the main guy criticizing you here and I'm not a YES voter. I donated all my shares in the market via a manalin",hold,decrease,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:49:53.761000+00:00,"A 
+quine
+ is a computer program which takes no input and produces a copy of its own source code as its only output.
+i",decrease,decrease,True
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T14:24:07.149000+00:00,"If we do not find out about it, this will resolve NO",decrease,hold,False
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:30:50.770000+00:00,"FYI this is against our 
+community guidelines
+ and we have taken action against 
+ 
+https://manifold.markets/post/ban",hold,decrease,False
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:26:26.318000+00:00,Yet nobody complained when he clarified the criteria several times in the comments.,decrease,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:41:01.081000+00:00,what's with you people and Autism? autism isn't bad 😤,decrease,hold,False
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T19:58:39.944000+00:00,The definition that has been applied to the argument for chair molecules is simply that experts refer to it as that - th,decrease,hold,False
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:28.765000+00:00,you forgot he has no dnd this month,hold,decrease,False
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:28:07.886000+00:00,what exactly does this subjective opinion contribute to the market?,hold,decrease,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T11:27:56.709000+00:00,i filled a single buck from it 👍,hold,hold,True
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T11:34:48.948000+00:00,I still think the case of experts sometimes referring to individual molecules of chair conformation cyclohexane as chair,decrease,decrease,True
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:35:59.917000+00:00,"To be honest, I have no idea. But I somehow put enough limit orders that I ended with a much bigger NO stake that I woul",decrease,decrease,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:32:53.925000+00:00,If I finish on your mom does that mean that I have stopped fucking your mom,decrease,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:04:49.533000+00:00,I remember when I had my own controversial market a while back which was relatively smaller yet pissed off enough better,decrease,decrease,True
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:19:45.917000+00:00,"this letter doesn't count since it's not about ""powerful AI"" and also it's by the wrong organization",hold,hold,True
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,decrease,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T02:49:53.327000+00:00,Fuck your garbage market. I am now commited to taking you down,decrease,decrease,True
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:04:24.420000+00:00,"Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the 
+time
+ argument is the weakest imo. 
+If 
+Chud spent 
+10 hours
+ t",hold,hold,True
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:06:47.056000+00:00,he owns the aba stock so it makes sense that he has so much capital i guess,hold,hold,True
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T08:51:25.089000+00:00,"""This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the",hold,hold,True
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:29:53.958000+00:00,Destiny is a very unique streamer. It just so happens that there is heavy overlap between the types of people that enjoy,decrease,hold,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:18:09.950000+00:00,"Else reading the first sentence would be enough to satisfy it, which would kinda contradict the ""Destiny must actively r",hold,hold,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:29:35.565000+00:00,"I don't want to get into an autistic debate about language my criteria in the description says ""when he stops playing it",decrease,hold,False
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,hold,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:20:15.598000+00:00,This fucker hasn't unbanned me so I can't even be in dgg chat,decrease,hold,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-29T07:03:49.739000+00:00,"That's the fault of 
+ for not specifying earlier on. Had he included the stipulation of ""breadth"" from the start, much ",decrease,decrease,True
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:33:09.136000+00:00,"The description said 
+""I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it's really close and more reviews ar",decrease,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:38:36.559000+00:00,"Personally I think you should make a more clear determination so we can keep playing this market. Like, 3 days without f",hold,hold,True
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-05T19:40:11.490000+00:00,I love to see delusional people,hold,hold,True
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,decrease,True
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T19:14:57.324000+00:00,Bro you are fucked. Lex podcast and just need 20k more and its only the 11th! on top of that Thanksgiving will bring ton,hold,hold,True
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:31:59.189000+00:00,"The upper bound for non subatomic matter-based tables and chairs is 10^50, the number of atoms in Earth. Breaking this l",decrease,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:21:50.151000+00:00,"and for any of you thinking he did not finish factorio, I'd bet all of my money that you lot of have played video games ",decrease,hold,False
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:42:38.164000+00:00,Welcome to the hell that has been this market and comment section.,decrease,decrease,True
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-16T01:53:53.789000+00:00,We need more YES buyers. Where y'all at?,hold,hold,True
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T18:49:04.006000+00:00,"Actually, that means that most non-digital tables consist primarily of chairs.",decrease,hold,False
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:34:16.945000+00:00,Please just let me have this 🙏,decrease,hold,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T16:06:37.298000+00:00,"10% might have been enough if it was the intro & conclusion, but he skipped both. It was a random 20% missing the start.",hold,decrease,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:54:10.692000+00:00,"mutually agreeable? Resolve as YES, that's the only possible outcome",decrease,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:57:33.395000+00:00,As long as they send it here (I won’t yoink it guys I swear),hold,hold,True
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T17:31:05.817000+00:00,"If you ignore the rest of the description and only hone in on this one sentence, then sure this would be a Yes resolve. ",hold,hold,True

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_flip_hold.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T15:53:45.271000+00:00,the market analysis always said no. in community drama isnt going to grow the community,hold,hold,True
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T07:03:07.113000+00:00,I’ve resisted my gambling instinct for too long. The cope is strong,hold,flip,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T03:23:16.482000+00:00,"If 
+ has quit this site and isn't around to resolve this shit... All I'm gonna say.. Don't come to school tomorrow NO b",hold,hold,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:43:36.654000+00:00,"Him working on it in the background means this resolves YES. Everyone understood that for all markets, and we always kne",flip,hold,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:21:26.808000+00:00,its like you got a b*ner to leave a comment bro. hop the hell off and let the dude resolve. both sides have made their c,hold,flip,False
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-06T14:46:06.959000+00:00,Its okay to not understand how things work.,hold,hold,True
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-08T06:19:04.852000+00:00,"Counterargument: the news cycle is probably going to be dominated by wacky midterms shit, Lex is going to want to talk a",hold,hold,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:34:00.651000+00:00,"Also, I'm the main guy criticizing you here and I'm not a YES voter. I donated all my shares in the market via a manalin",hold,hold,True
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:52:12.197000+00:00,ikr it's recording all the trades,flip,hold,False
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T17:04:13.676000+00:00,": 
+ still holds 2k NO shares, and has only ~200 mana in their cash balance, that seems like it satisfies ""put your mone",flip,hold,False
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:30:50.770000+00:00,"FYI this is against our 
+community guidelines
+ and we have taken action against 
+ 
+https://manifold.markets/post/ban",hold,flip,False
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-14T21:00:40.330000+00:00,Every time there is a fight on stream it is ez money.,flip,hold,False
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:52:28.840000+00:00,"Does anyone know how 
+ got the insider information? Because the fact that only whales had insider information and no on",flip,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:27:51.506000+00:00,"Personally I will find any ambiguity and argue it infinitely to sow doubt and manipulate markets, it’s part of the game",flip,flip,True
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:28.765000+00:00,you forgot he has no dnd this month,hold,hold,True
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:28:07.886000+00:00,what exactly does this subjective opinion contribute to the market?,hold,hold,True
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T11:27:56.709000+00:00,i filled a single buck from it 👍,hold,hold,True
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T15:47:59.750000+00:00,"do you know how he did this? I thought about it and to someone like me, a person not versed in this stuff, it looks like",flip,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T13:06:59.773000+00:00,"yeah it's what confuses me, 
+why would you",flip,hold,False
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:02:07.801000+00:00,"This is me right now, why is this god damn video getting this much late tracktion? Will it stop? When? Is it too late?",flip,flip,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T17:07:25.268000+00:00,"I think the resolution to this question necessarily depends on the following days. Destiny could have slept on it, and s",flip,hold,False
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:19:45.917000+00:00,"this letter doesn't count since it's not about ""powerful AI"" and also it's by the wrong organization",hold,hold,True
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,hold,True
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:09:23.006000+00:00,Who will lead that charge? People are too afraid,flip,hold,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:04:24.420000+00:00,"Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the 
+time
+ argument is the weakest imo. 
+If 
+Chud spent 
+10 hours
+ t",hold,flip,False
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:06:47.056000+00:00,he owns the aba stock so it makes sense that he has so much capital i guess,hold,hold,True
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T08:51:25.089000+00:00,"""This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the",hold,hold,True
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T14:06:00.486000+00:00,"no way, he was right, there is a 
+letter",flip,flip,True
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:18:09.950000+00:00,"Else reading the first sentence would be enough to satisfy it, which would kinda contradict the ""Destiny must actively r",hold,hold,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:29:34.461000+00:00,Also thanks for clarifying the resolution criteria,flip,hold,False
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,flip,False
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link 
+here",flip,hold,False
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:22:16.836000+00:00,Which poll? The polls linked above are closed.,flip,hold,False
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:23:23.389000+00:00,"Achieved, can you close now? I have too much mana locked in this 😁.",flip,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:38:36.559000+00:00,"Personally I think you should make a more clear determination so we can keep playing this market. Like, 3 days without f",hold,hold,True
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-05T19:40:11.490000+00:00,I love to see delusional people,hold,hold,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:41.981000+00:00,What do you mean it's literally written,flip,hold,False
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T19:14:57.324000+00:00,Bro you are fucked. Lex podcast and just need 20k more and its only the 11th! on top of that Thanksgiving will bring ton,hold,flip,False
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T21:27:17.563000+00:00,"were is the 
+thought we had talked about this?",flip,hold,False
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:20:15.115000+00:00,"Yes, Hinton and Bengio from 2018: 
+https://amturing.acm.org/byyear.cfm",flip,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:30:59.062000+00:00,He said that he was going to do the secret ending multiple times you actually think didn't knew about it and still kept ,flip,flip,True
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-16T01:53:53.789000+00:00,We need more YES buyers. Where y'all at?,hold,flip,False
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:22:34.151000+00:00,"Some people just want to watch the world burn. I would just like to point out that with around 2 days left, the base rat",flip,flip,True
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-02T22:14:33.697000+00:00,He has been getting 1-2k a day on social blade,flip,hold,False
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T16:06:37.298000+00:00,"10% might have been enough if it was the intro & conclusion, but he skipped both. It was a random 20% missing the start.",hold,hold,True
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:42:51.351000+00:00,I don't know if anyone mentioned this,flip,hold,False
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:57:33.395000+00:00,As long as they send it here (I won’t yoink it guys I swear),hold,hold,True
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T17:31:05.817000+00:00,"If you ignore the rest of the description and only hone in on this one sentence, then sure this would be a Yes resolve. ",hold,flip,False

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h12.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:00:53.307000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I am the largest yes holder and im recommending you to just solve it to N/A. Destiny DID finish factorio and is still pl,decrease,flip,False,True,9879.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T15:41:38.634000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,A comparable (~85th percentile) result the other way would have made this virtually impossible. Now it's a tossup,increase,decrease,False,True,2897.5716,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:19:13.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Ok so if you knew he was never going to stop playing, you should have bought NO when it was at 99%. You are potentially ",increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:21:58.139000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Worse, it's recording them on before they happen!",flip,decrease,False,True,85.8776,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-26T00:17:45.990000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I don't think a miracle would be enough 😭,hold,increase,False,True,15953.076,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:08:28.794000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Comments don’t always override the description, though. Not all bettors even read that comment, I’m sure. And slowly is ",decrease,hold,False,True,33.8374,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T12:28:20.512000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,that's why you read past the first line. How did you not realize what you were typing before you hit send?,increase,decrease,False,True,1987.133,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-20T16:56:10.239000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,he's not getting 14k in 10 days. He hasn't even streamed for the past 4 days,hold,increase,False,True,98.1499,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T07:08:36.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Still plenty of opportunity to make mana on this market!,flip,increase,False,True,1275.862,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T12:03:24.960000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Shoot, I think I’m actually unironically convinced.
+As long as it counts if they’re only called “chairs” in specific co",flip,flip,True,True,81.7353,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-14T21:00:40.330000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Every time there is a fight on stream it is ez money.,flip,increase,False,True,302.4864,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:22:34.151000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Some people just want to watch the world burn. I would just like to point out that with around 2 days left, the base rat",increase,increase,True,True,1965.4319,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T05:50:20.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"i think you misunderstand me, i mean the dip going from 80%+ to 14% despite the direction going towards Yes",decrease,decrease,True,True,808.3389,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:31:13.496000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I am pretty new to active trading on Manifold and considering my abysmal record hardly the guy to give opinions. But sin,hold,decrease,False,True,2614.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:17:43.280000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","we're not sure if there's a letter coming, and the probability of maximum uncertainty is 50%. so we're buying the market",increase,hold,False,True,77890.6897,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T11:33:25.757000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Human feces are called ""Stuhl"" in German, ""chair"" translates to ""Stuhl"". I'd estimate hundreds of millions of human fece",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T20:26:09.483000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"~ The 
+ Report ~
+""If Destiny reacts to someone watching the video or reading the article the market will also resolve ",hold,decrease,False,True,4149.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-24T04:53:32.354000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Anyone want to buy this back to 99 so I can sell more?,flip,increase,False,True,26315.6772,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T00:12:55.478000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Now it's my expert analysis that if, allah forbid, he throws himself on the Rift again August will have absolutely 0 con",decrease,decrease,True,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T21:55:52.019000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",the title makes it clear i think,increase,hold,False,True,35300.7546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T01:03:26.350000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I think RT just doesn't always do a good job of updating stale data. It's not just for reviews flipping between fresh an,flip,hold,False,True,2494.2882,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:44:20.666000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,If you're not coping you should buy Yes until it goes up to 50%.,increase,flip,False,True,4078.4262,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:59:02.743000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Most common format of 2v2 debates,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:00:06.086000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The IDEA of the ikea chair should be counted as 1 because it is a term/definition. However, the ikea chairs themselves s",increase,hold,False,True,113.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:39:26.285000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",If all this somehow directly caused the creation of a new letter we will have lost the human race so many dignity points,decrease,increase,False,True,445.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T23:43:50.410000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yo, i was just memeing. i didn't actually mean to extend this. I was bringing up arguments from the whales v minnow stuf",flip,decrease,False,True,10.4117,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:17:05.105000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I don't think that it was intended to be that way I mean take the swipe feature in consideration it only shows the title,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:07:52.161000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Ok, I see but obviously hope my understanding is closer to 
+ 's original intent 😁.",increase,hold,False,True,2033.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:42:47.594000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Good thing this isn't how markets are resolved. There have been so many instances where the side with less shares has wo,increase,hold,False,True,9152.5036,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:12:36.025000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Do not resolve until it hits 350, or close date, to go against what you said in description would be wrong",flip,hold,False,True,65.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:26:35.003000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I had my tin foil hat on over my eyes, but I think what I really meant is that it’s more a matter of public perception a",hold,decrease,False,True,1240.5401,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:22:16.836000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Which poll? The polls linked above are closed.,decrease,hold,False,True,252.5048,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-23T22:00:55.981000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I've wagered all my life savings on this.,hold,decrease,False,True,644.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:11:58.976000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,You're acting as if this was an actual coherent Manifesto. It should be clear to anyone who is in DGG that this lacked m,hold,flip,False,True,289.5136,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T11:46:22.462000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"If they declare an INTENTION to divorce before January, and then finalize the divorce during 2024, this resolves YES",increase,hold,False,True,1787.133,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:43:38.153000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Wait is there actual news or are y'all still trading on the average length of a california divorce?,flip,decrease,False,True,1248.9292,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:26:33.214000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Yeah thats exactly where I am at right now, I know what I meant but its kinda of hard to dispute whether x amount of tim",decrease,decrease,True,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T21:51:03.539000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Chud isn't even halfway through yet and won't finish today. If you believe Destiny will actually continue tomorrow and c,decrease,hold,False,True,7375.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T03:17:32.164000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,At the current rate of of 1k subs per day he will end up being 1k short. But considering all he needs is one more produc,increase,increase,True,True,65.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:50:46.980000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Counter-buying your yes position is going to be the easiest money this website has ever seen.,increase,increase,True,True,4078.4262,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:06:20.227000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"still possible though.
+ im assuming that's the one where anyone can make an account and flood it right?",flip,decrease,False,True,11.4944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-08T20:41:40.919000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Yes, but not if it is finalized the year after that.",hold,hold,True,True,1005.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:23:23.389000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Achieved, can you close now? I have too much mana locked in this 😁.",increase,decrease,False,True,2033.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:32:14.741000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",now that Mira took the bait I can sell,increase,decrease,False,True,7000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:49:09.708000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I said even NO share holders thought this was going to resolve YES,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:52:08.114000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","they will lose a bunch of mana and move on, others will gain some mana and this market will be over. the battle will be ",flip,hold,False,True,5560.5198,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T06:19:28.448000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"""Jack Skellington created limit order for Ṁ320 NO at 49%"" 
+Very secure that 50% is coping right? If you think what I sa",hold,flip,False,True,265.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T14:03:49.148000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","if 
+, 
+, @Fedor, and others wants to become greedy and profit off my Wiggles then i will stop doing them.
+I eat limit",flip,decrease,False,True,6154.378,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T21:19:43.925000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,15 for today (3 splats / 12 fresh) ..so far,increase,decrease,False,True,10004.9978,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T18:09:08.402000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",no its not a statement its a report with 0 signs,flip,increase,False,True,4268.8758,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T20:09:47.581000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Probability of x more rotten reviews (assuming p(rotten)=0.1 and independence):
+1 ..... 38.7%
+2 .... 17.2%
+3 ..... 4.",flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:23:00.139000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",a second spike has just hit the market,flip,increase,False,True,7835.9785,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:25:26.350000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Despite Manifold views otherwise I don’t think vacillations in the comments really should be relevant: a bit different i,decrease,hold,False,True,9.3225,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T13:47:43.752000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I don't know that I agree it's how ""most people"" interpreted it. I don't know how you can say that just because ""yes"" we",increase,hold,False,True,109.1052,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T10:20:12.607000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Finally someone is saying what we’ve all been thinking. This might as well be sandles Jamaica with all the flop flipping,hold,flip,False,True,1004.5401,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T21:47:20.377000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Ah I suppose that's possible, I don't fully understand how the bots work honestly.",decrease,decrease,True,True,345.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:32:41.589000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Right now, I believe he's only playing the game in the background while he's talking to someone or watching a video. I d",flip,decrease,False,True,95.3894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:03:06.281000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,There is also a tensor for every point on and in Earth,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T16:48:13.128000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"2022-12-07 / 20 days / 600,000 in future projections",hold,hold,True,True,137.7316,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:13:25.942000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Sorry bro not even remotely true. Title almost never takes precedence on this site.
+Comment clarifications > descriptio",increase,increase,True,True,366.2388,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:50:07.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,can you explain how I would be able to resolve yes right now without any fucking cope that the market was about him beat,decrease,decrease,True,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:53:28.212000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description is arguably unclear 
+""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio --> I'm not sure if there is an e",flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:59:22.541000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I think my problem is that every yes voter thinks I'm a fucking evil person who planned to rugpull from the beginning, t",decrease,decrease,True,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T16:20:15.958000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I opened the rumble homepage last night and mrgirl was on the frontpage of rumble with 10k ish viewers,increase,increase,True,True,5.8331,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-07T21:58:19.673000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,What is enough to resolve this YES? What if Destiny reacts to a clip of someone else covering it or watches a vod of som,hold,decrease,False,True,211.0764,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T03:48:49.729000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,i reckognise it was prying tanking a big no position but it's still very surprising and unexpected considering the most ,decrease,decrease,True,True,808.3389,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T19:02:11.146000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This market will resolve YES only if Destiny 
+makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of th",increase,increase,True,True,8952.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T15:11:30.331000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"HE CANT BE STOPPED
+ACCORDING TO MY SENTIMENT ANALYSIS AND ADVANCED STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES OUR GREAT DALIBAN LEADER WILL",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T08:27:43.063000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",It turns out I was underestimating how heavy trading would continue to be when I created the markets on how many trades ,increase,hold,False,True,217.499,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:20.882000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,The fact it got to 97 or 99% means a vast majority of people in this very higher user market had the same view. The meme,hold,decrease,False,True,1003.0779,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-12-04T19:13:01.467000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""...by the end of 2023."" (I still don't think he'll cover it, btw)",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:19:30.084000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",But there is only 2 days left? Why is it still at 50%,increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-22T10:01:47.720000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I think the market should be at 65% given the data,decrease,flip,False,True,8149.8831,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:31:59.189000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The upper bound for non subatomic matter-based tables and chairs is 10^50, the number of atoms in Earth. Breaking this l",decrease,hold,False,True,160.4944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T12:30:29.233000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I just woke up, and I was thinking...
+Why did I buy all these YES shares...? 😭 
+Why do I feel like I'm going to get ru",decrease,decrease,True,True,35359.4522,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T16:18:15.434000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"""If they say they are proceeding with a divorce, I will wait until the end of 2024, and if a divorce happens, I will res",increase,decrease,False,True,95.7869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:18:45.811000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of May 202,hold,flip,False,True,6179.1468,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:35:24.464000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"""he's flip flopping""
+""he said he'd close but isn't""
+I have said from the start of the market, that I will extend if ""r",hold,decrease,False,True,15.7896,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:15:10.773000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"(Descriptive and not prescriptive linguistics and all of that), so there is no actual ""right"" and ""wrong"", but these exa",decrease,decrease,True,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T16:36:04.551000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"my reply isn't ambiguous, i was not updating the description because i did not want to until i had eaten breakfast and s",hold,hold,True,True,15.7896,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T20:09:56.512000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I see 39/376. The 1 is quite literally the difference between 90% and 89%.,increase,hold,False,True,2774.4753,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T20:45:28.830000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,if its prerecorded maybe by the 30th.  but they do live podcasts too so it could be live streamed. he hasn't said which ,hold,decrease,False,True,233.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:34:21.319000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Somebody recreate this market for 2024/2025. I want to bet in it,decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T19:53:16.781000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i'm using the 'Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score' but this change reflects a margin of like, MAYBE 2 reviews 'safer' for 'yes",increase,decrease,False,True,328.3219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T17:00:08.265000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Currently 151 of remaining 164 reviews (assuming 350 stopping point) need to be fresh for this to resolve YES - 91.5%. C,flip,decrease,False,True,105.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-12-15T18:00:43.058000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,if it comes up with very weak evidence he's going to want to go over how weak and feeble it is. If there's stronger evid,flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:10:14.291000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I did notice an increase in views recently compared to what it used to be and this comment is totally not biased,flip,decrease,False,True,15953.076,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T01:19:09.834000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This market is FUCKING rigged. It says best,hold,decrease,False,True,430.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:44:33.639000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"that's because he just finished the main storyline and I think many people have interpreted this question as ""will he be",flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T12:31:07.481000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,People will walk away happy if destiny actually covers it properly. The only reason it has room to be disputed is becaus,hold,increase,False,True,11571.9137,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T10:08:54.230000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"read, discuss, respond, or listen to the 
+breadth
+ of the article
+Even skipping through “evidence”, he would actually",hold,increase,False,True,12563.8825,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T01:49:24.111000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",ok let me be cleear then: I think insider trading prob is >10%,decrease,decrease,True,True,17106.6262,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T06:51:00.839000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,Thank you for your money I appreciate your kind donation I will take great care of it,decrease,hold,False,True,5251.0305,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T18:40:34.150000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,A reading of the manifeto on destiny's live stream??? looks like a W for the belivers,flip,increase,False,True,1225.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-09T03:03:41.626000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This is a content hedge. Either I get the content I want, or I get more Mana",hold,hold,True,True,1249.7015,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:17:08.043000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"SEELL SELL. If this pays NO,  I’ll pay back anyone who lost mana, if this was your introduction to manifold. Let me know",decrease,increase,False,True,12728.132,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:23:38.237000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"market closes after 2 consecutive days of less than 15 reviews. Yesterday had less than 15, so it could close today.",decrease,decrease,True,True,19250.8945,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:07:49.368000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"You aren't Destiny Lil Bro, occams razor can't be used for complicated language arguments. I don't understand how you ca",hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h24.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:11:09.863000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","No, you interpret the title and description in harmony.",hold,hold,True,True,118975.0618,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T16:15:55.929000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,The description does say the divorce needs to eventually happen for the market to resolve YES,increase,hold,False,True,1668.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T13:18:30.456000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",He's unloading his position everyone! There's not going to be a letter.... we were tricked!,decrease,flip,False,True,35359.4522,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T21:51:20.679000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""
+makes an effort""
+. No one is saying he needs to react to all of it. This was made clear weeks ago. Read the full des",increase,increase,True,True,9352.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T01:41:47.862000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",So glad this market is unlisted. 😭,increase,decrease,False,True,29580.6527,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:51:38.481000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Isn’t he participating at Middle Guy’s event?,hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T19:15:27.087000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This shit is so boring, destiny will get bored of it before the end.",decrease,increase,False,True,1591.0604,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:31:46.209000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,This is the brain of the average NOPER 🔼,flip,increase,False,True,161.8778,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:16:43.692000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"if you had watched the film, and felt positive about it, would that influence or change any of the calculations  or chan",flip,decrease,False,True,11.4944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:38:13.543000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I'm 80% sure its a prank/experiment done my the whales.,flip,hold,False,True,396.5379,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:02:11.783000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Nice :) I think they're a neat feature, I just didn't think they mattered yet!",decrease,hold,False,True,5574.8623,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-08T20:51:52.777000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,want to cancel each others' positions out at 60,increase,decrease,False,True,667.2949,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T21:48:54.022000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"I have a botnet waiting just in case for the 29th-30th, so hop on while the stock is low lads",flip,increase,False,True,91.8778,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T13:11:59.261000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,GUYS FACTORIO IS IN THE PAST NOW!!! 🥳,increase,flip,False,True,234.0774,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:08:28.137000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,You can try to be a condescending person but you aren't intelligent,hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:12:19.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"WSB tier noob trader moment
+“If it’s good enough to screenshot, it’s good enough to sell”
+Gotta realize those gains ki",flip,decrease,False,True,356.1918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T17:50:49.663000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"It would need him to enter a completely new community, stop coping and embrace ""NO""!",hold,increase,False,True,490.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T20:27:07.527000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Those of you who are enjoying this discussion of the different ways a thing can be considered a table or chair and would,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T12:52:52.769000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"if you don't play a game for three days are you done with it??????
+should just ask destiny 'do you still play the mod' ",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:45:59.036000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I would not say the resolution criteria for this market is optimally designed but really I’ve seen a lot worse; and also,decrease,hold,False,True,9.3225,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T21:29:21.121000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Yes bettors, you sweating yet?",increase,increase,True,True,5637.4262,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T20:58:03.357000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"doesnt have to, when he is behind and needs to catch up with subs. As time passes and he isnt able to catch up, the chan",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:02:47.525000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,All good bro just ignore the first line in the description that has been there from the start,decrease,hold,False,True,687.8724,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:05:14.867000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly if he doesn't play for like a week or 5 days before the close date I think that would be fair,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:18:12.907000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think May 31 counts as may 31, and the default assumption is anywhere in the world",flip,hold,False,True,1522.0618,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:11:36.392000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I made 10k on the other markets (that were clearly around completion of the mods normal ending) and I only held 1K Yes h,increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:15:33.248000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Copy pasting my response to the ""omg look he spent 7 hours sitting there in autopilot droning through Chud's stream"" arg",hold,increase,False,True,11052.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T06:19:05.268000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,That final count down almost felt like new years 😂,flip,hold,False,True,87.1282,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:52:29.924000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"how is it cope?! You clearly manipulated the title vs description to mislead investors. You would've wrote ""WILL DESTINY",decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability
+and im right back in",increase,increase,True,True,1360.0439,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:53:48.660000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason to resolve at that moment if he said he wasn't going to play Factorio again because there was always ,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:47:41.792000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",holy shit that looks exactly like this market,hold,hold,True,True,3892.7979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T23:34:02.162000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"I just want to also point out he tweeted "" listening to Chud go over my life story + some true crime vids today oh boy -",increase,increase,True,True,1113.4222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:30:27.224000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I will watch this and any subsequent poems you may drop, and learn from them, for I want to be the best wiggler in town",flip,hold,False,True,8271.934,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:59:26.977000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",5pm on friday and im off... not wiggling on my holidays,flip,hold,False,True,5559.5309,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-30T19:11:11.167000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,she's gotta sign the papers :^),decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T21:28:36.885000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,the chance of a 88.5% weighted die flipping 7 out of 9 is 92.5%,decrease,increase,False,True,2530.3758,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T19:59:22.668000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The poll said it was ""A"" chair formation, however it should be ""The"" chair formation, I'm going to argue that the wordin",increase,hold,False,True,113.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:21:25.565000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I will personally match each YES share held with 0.000038 BTC by the end of the market
+(real)",hold,increase,False,True,3892.7979,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:19:13.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Ok so if you knew he was never going to stop playing, you should have bought NO when it was at 99%. You are potentially ",increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:23:09.564000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","thats why I'm confused, why is it at 54% and not 50% as all markets should be?",flip,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T02:48:16.212000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",it would tickle my Wiggles sense if this gets RE LISTED,flip,hold,False,True,9110.2568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,47.2275,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T00:20:53.580000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,What is happening in this market? Why did this happen again?,increase,hold,False,True,15.0494,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T06:30:26.097000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Have we considered lookup tables in FPGAs? 
+https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/169532/what-is-an-lut-in-fp",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:16:08.831000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"If you ask the question ""how many tables are there"", the answer would be 10,000 based on your example. However, if you a",increase,flip,False,True,103.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T06:58:27.096000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,If I knew this was happening I would've never cancelled all my old limit orders smh,decrease,decrease,True,True,5462.7597,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T05:48:04.321000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I am done with this market 😄. The mana is not worth the stress, I am not built for checking RT every other hour.",flip,decrease,False,True,1643.0631,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:32:41.589000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Right now, I believe he's only playing the game in the background while he's talking to someone or watching a video. I d",flip,decrease,False,True,95.3894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:54:52.371000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I just bought a huge position but it isn’t showing up on my profile or under top positions,increase,increase,True,True,911.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T19:53:51.655000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I disagree. It's unlikely that the poll will reach a threshold of 20 traders who have not voted (you mean traded?) on th,flip,decrease,False,True,262.5048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:43:53.672000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,sorry I meant to say even if he wasn't lying,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T12:26:51.856000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"Aaand, finally got rid of my YES position, you guys really don't like to cut losses, right?). 
+ tell me, what would hap",flip,decrease,False,True,96.5457,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T08:03:44.573000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","i suspect (not sure) that if an unlisted market is listed again, it starts to count towards league profits/rankings, and",increase,hold,False,True,80626.6398,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:35:42.542000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Doesn’t meet the resolution criteria yet.,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:58:14.463000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,does it matter? the creator said it would resolve yes regardless,decrease,decrease,True,True,5653.3852,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T00:31:25.083000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Literally going section by section. This is covering the breadth of the article by all accounts. Time to resolve :^),hold,increase,False,True,3546.5672,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T21:59:17.704000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",i don't think anyone is even reading the title or description at this point 😂,flip,decrease,False,True,4132.634,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:05:07.011000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Lol this dude got clapped for his exploiting. Portfolio is now negative all the money he cheated.,increase,hold,False,True,5254.1144,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:33:44.134000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Damn, I hoped you might have missed this one, he was holding this market. I don't disagree, I just liked the guy.",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:02:02.372000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,No I am 100% sprite driven I am going to sell all my stock to subsidize the market with the current criteria,decrease,increase,False,True,9823.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T17:32:58.289000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"True, he’ll probably be talking to him live tomorrow 💀💀 pretty sure the manifesto won’t get any airtime tho. He’s not di",increase,increase,True,True,13706.3573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:02:07.801000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"This is me right now, why is this god damn video getting this much late tracktion? Will it stop? When? Is it too late?",decrease,decrease,True,True,975.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:19:02.189000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"""I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, 
+unless it's really close and more reviews are still coming in.""
+",decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:01:54.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I see what you're saying and there's a lot of precedent on Manifold for that way of thinking. in this case, the phrase """,increase,hold,False,True,106.3837,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-12-04T18:58:13.653000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"He postponed the release to January, buy your No / sell your Yes",hold,flip,False,True,18.7561,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T20:14:55.899000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"OH WOW, not like one better-than-average video can propel us to 600k!",decrease,decrease,True,True,172.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:08:31.130000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Warning: this is my subjective opinion
+A letter from anyone would be daft, to be honest. These letters won't do what th",decrease,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:49:53.761000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","A 
+quine
+ is a computer program which takes no input and produces a copy of its own source code as its only output.
+i",decrease,hold,False,True,5778.8832,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-08T21:14:30.632000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Florida law § 61.021 Residence requirements.—To obtain a dissolution of marriage, one of the parties to the marriage mus",increase,decrease,False,True,3641.0737,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-12T08:13:01.010000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think anyone thinks hes gonna go over all 150 pages. he will prob go over some of the most important parts or if,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T05:39:59.921000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If there is any serious claim at all in the manfiesto he'll have to review it even if its false.
+If it goes viral on LS",hold,increase,False,True,299.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:21:48.158000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"can't fight the algorithm, 400k here we come",hold,increase,False,True,8500.9852,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-23T09:32:41.394000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I think if it drops, ull probably not want to switch cuz that would be a bad sign no?",hold,decrease,False,True,2828.4167,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:44:57.084000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Yeah but also at the same time I could have clarified more,decrease,decrease,True,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:56:12.329000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"lol, nice. Thanks, maybe I will really need it 😁.",hold,hold,True,True,2614.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",increase,decrease,False,True,904.1437,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:05:45.607000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I a scale of 1 to 10 how biased would you say you are in this situation? 😂,decrease,decrease,True,True,2284.3361,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:30:44.422000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Luckily you have like 8 days, so you have time to pressure him into not playing the game. PepeLaugh goodluck though",decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T19:36:34.372000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,one update: rotten tomatoes rounds UP to 90 at at least 89.958. this means virtually all my estimates on 'proportion fre,increase,hold,False,True,328.3219,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:31:13.496000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I am pretty new to active trading on Manifold and considering my abysmal record hardly the guy to give opinions. But sin,hold,decrease,False,True,2614.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T01:48:16.875000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The spirit is willing, but the chair is weak.",flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T22:49:11.361000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"How about tensors? If we are counting data tables, tensors are just tables with some additional structure.",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T05:47:57.549000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i created an AI Destiny and even he doesnt want to cover it.,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T13:29:08.335000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","at least it stopped swinging from 20% to 80%, and now stays in the 45% to 55% range...",increase,hold,False,True,34.2332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T21:57:41.020000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"""I have said from the start of the market, that I will extend if ""reviews are still coming in""
+Damn, I wish I read that",flip,decrease,False,True,671.1937,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:41.981000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,What do you mean it's literally written,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T16:17:28.670000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This is like printing money, once this market resolves there will be a VOID in my profits",hold,increase,False,True,450.1857,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T00:40:03.687000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Nopers delusional. D man is about to have a podcast on No Jumper debating Fuentes, Yiannopolus, and Ye. Shit's going to ",hold,increase,False,True,3187.5132,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T10:12:17.673000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,the poll seems to have the voters hidden? Or can the creator still see them?,decrease,hold,False,True,72.6644,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T22:54:52.459000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I will be victorious this time.,hold,increase,False,True,9256.645,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-27T22:49:19.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,on a serious note Destiny has been vagueposting on both Twitter and on stream and I'm not jumping into conclusions but <,decrease,increase,False,True,203.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:48:25.774000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,It's definitely less than halfway and I'm taking into account the parts Destiny missed whenever he leaves his room into ,hold,hold,True,True,10952.5036,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:12:36.025000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Do not resolve until it hits 350, or close date, to go against what you said in description would be wrong",flip,hold,False,True,65.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T06:52:02.948000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,they have to announce a 'divorce' not a 'split' though.,flip,decrease,False,True,31.6821,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:56:30.803000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"He is! He’s doing two tomorrow in Texas for Modern Day Debates. Kinda major for just 14k subs, no?",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T01:23:56.414000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"No, stop rules lawyering. If 36/350 reviews aren't rotten, this should resolve yes",decrease,flip,False,True,1.0011,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:42:57.935000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Views have dropped each day for the past 5 days, didn't even get 1k subs yesterday. More travel, planning for canvassing",decrease,decrease,True,True,4319.5858,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5

model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h48.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
+market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T08:51:25.089000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the",hold,increase,False,True,210.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:41:01.081000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,what's with you people and Autism? autism isn't bad 😤,decrease,hold,False,True,5311.3361,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T18:49:04.006000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Actually, that means that most non-digital tables consist primarily of chairs.",decrease,decrease,True,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:18:56.672000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I see it as we hit the goal here is proof and now we wait for 350 reviews or 30 days which ever comes first.,increase,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:24:05.892000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""chair conformation"" is a term that talks about how the cyclohexane molecules are arranged. A ""positive integer"" is a te",increase,hold,False,True,103.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T13:22:41.408000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"lmao, I will it make sure to remember to laugh at u when it won't happen",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:20:15.115000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Yes, Hinton and Bengio from 2018: 
+https://amturing.acm.org/byyear.cfm",flip,flip,True,True,4326.877,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T07:03:07.113000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I’ve resisted my gambling instinct for too long. The cope is strong,hold,flip,False,True,827.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T21:27:17.563000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"were is the 
+thought we had talked about this?",flip,hold,False,True,975.9749,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:09:23.006000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Who will lead that charge? People are too afraid,flip,increase,False,True,4414.5098,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:30:59.062000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He said that he was going to do the secret ending multiple times you actually think didn't knew about it and still kept ,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T11:12:50.616000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Does this parse as:
+Resolves YES if there is (a similar letter as the Pause Letter) released by the Future of Life Inst",increase,hold,False,True,1090.2391,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,hold,False,True,6564.8623,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-12T12:42:15.084000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,All they're saying is that for this to resolve YES someone has to show evidence that the divorce has finalized. It's not,increase,hold,False,True,7134.7611,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T19:14:57.324000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Bro you are fucked. Lex podcast and just need 20k more and its only the 11th! on top of that Thanksgiving will bring ton,hold,increase,False,True,260.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T17:04:13.676000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",": 
+ still holds 2k NO shares, and has only ~200 mana in their cash balance, that seems like it satisfies ""put your mone",flip,hold,False,True,1365.4527,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-06T14:46:06.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Its okay to not understand how things work.,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:06:47.056000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,he owns the aba stock so it makes sense that he has so much capital i guess,hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:52:12.197000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,ikr it's recording all the trades,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:29:53.958000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Destiny is a very unique streamer. It just so happens that there is heavy overlap between the types of people that enjoy,decrease,hold,False,True,850.6887,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T17:31:05.817000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If you ignore the rest of the description and only hone in on this one sentence, then sure this would be a Yes resolve. ",hold,increase,False,True,10852.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-23T14:36:29.995000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Agreed. The most coverage I could see it getting besides what you already said is some of the more humorous extrapolatio,increase,increase,True,True,33.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T00:25:45.810000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""He is even Watching Mr. Girl talk about it now live, which is yet another criteria for another yes"". Point to me where ",increase,flip,False,True,9852.5036,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T15:47:59.750000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"do you know how he did this? I thought about it and to someone like me, a person not versed in this stuff, it looks like",flip,decrease,False,True,31.2954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T01:06:47.714000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,193/213 reviews from now on need to be positive to resolve YES,increase,decrease,False,True,95.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:28:07.886000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",what exactly does this subjective opinion contribute to the market?,hold,hold,True,True,3814.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T13:06:59.773000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"yeah it's what confuses me, 
+why would you",flip,decrease,False,True,348.5825,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:21:50.151000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"and for any of you thinking he did not finish factorio, I'd bet all of my money that you lot of have played video games ",decrease,increase,False,True,9879.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:29:34.461000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Also thanks for clarifying the resolution criteria,flip,hold,False,True,2318.3211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T22:47:20.703000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The description said ""Anything called a chair or table (e.g., multiplication tables, positions of authority) counts, but",increase,increase,True,True,103.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-05T19:40:11.490000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I love to see delusional people,hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:19:13.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Ok so if you knew he was never going to stop playing, you should have bought NO when it was at 99%. You are potentially ",increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:38:36.559000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Personally I think you should make a more clear determination so we can keep playing this market. Like, 3 days without f",hold,increase,False,True,443.8341,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T14:06:00.486000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","no way, he was right, there is a 
+letter",flip,hold,False,True,7954.6967,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:32:53.925000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I finish on your mom does that mean that I have stopped fucking your mom,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T11:34:48.948000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I still think the case of experts sometimes referring to individual molecules of chair conformation cyclohexane as chair,decrease,increase,False,True,155.9872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:55:14.024000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,my ended market is probably worse,increase,decrease,False,True,4855.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:02:07.801000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"This is me right now, why is this god damn video getting this much late tracktion? Will it stop? When? Is it too late?",flip,decrease,False,True,975.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:42:15.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,must be nice. My graph is all in the red. Hahaha. Somehow I still am making mana.,increase,decrease,False,True,128.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T18:15:18.922000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"YO, FUCK THESE NEW SITE SOUNDS. IT'S WAY TOO FUCKIN LOUD, WE NEED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS.",increase,hold,False,True,5903.4695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-02T22:14:33.697000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,He has been getting 1-2k a day on social blade,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T03:23:16.482000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If 
+ has quit this site and isn't around to resolve this shit... All I'm gonna say.. Don't come to school tomorrow NO b",hold,decrease,False,True,6710.7015,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T07:20:02.718000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Unless there's a particularly bleak spree of negative reviews, I don't see the score deviating much for each future revi",increase,hold,False,True,917.0089,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,decrease,False,True,8175.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T16:27:35.532000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think a table needs to have some physical manifestation, not just exist mathematically.",increase,hold,False,True,159.1713,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:49:53.761000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","A 
+quine
+ is a computer program which takes no input and produces a copy of its own source code as its only output.
+i",decrease,hold,False,True,5778.8832,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T17:07:25.268000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I think the resolution to this question necessarily depends on the following days. Destiny could have slept on it, and s",flip,decrease,False,True,94.1554,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:52:28.840000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Does anyone know how 
+ got the insider information? Because the fact that only whales had insider information and no on",flip,decrease,False,True,1687.9568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:43:36.654000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Him working on it in the background means this resolves YES. Everyone understood that for all markets, and we always kne",flip,increase,False,True,727.9397,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T12:17:34.893000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"he's going for the real ending, it's not ""when he stops playing factorio (on stream)"".
+the title doesn't even mention t",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-14T21:00:40.330000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Every time there is a fight on stream it is ez money.,flip,increase,False,True,302.4864,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:57:33.395000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,As long as they send it here (I won’t yoink it guys I swear),hold,hold,True,True,514.2388,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:27:51.506000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Personally I will find any ambiguity and argue it infinitely to sow doubt and manipulate markets, it’s part of the game",flip,decrease,False,True,356.1918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:54:10.692000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"mutually agreeable? Resolve as YES, that's the only possible outcome",decrease,increase,False,True,430.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:39:34.251000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",sounds like you should buy this market down to 20% then,increase,decrease,False,True,92565.6897,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T15:53:45.271000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,the market analysis always said no. in community drama isnt going to grow the community,hold,increase,False,True,566.2037,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T19:58:39.944000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,The definition that has been applied to the argument for chair molecules is simply that experts refer to it as that - th,decrease,hold,False,True,95.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-16T01:53:53.789000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,We need more YES buyers. Where y'all at?,hold,hold,True,True,5250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T14:24:07.149000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","If we do not find out about it, this will resolve NO",decrease,hold,False,True,1146.0533,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T02:06:33.842000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Well if someone manipulates 1,000 subs for fake internet points that would be pretty sad. But I guess people have done s",increase,hold,False,True,194.337,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T02:49:53.327000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Fuck your garbage market. I am now commited to taking you down,decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-27T22:49:19.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,on a serious note Destiny has been vagueposting on both Twitter and on stream and I'm not jumping into conclusions but <,decrease,increase,False,True,203.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T21:59:22.319000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Leagues strongly affected how I think and feel about my profits and losses. I now have clear goals in my mind ""don't los",increase,hold,False,True,16285.2231,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:42:38.164000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Welcome to the hell that has been this market and comment section.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1284.629,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:29:35.565000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I don't want to get into an autistic debate about language my criteria in the description says ""when he stops playing it",decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T11:27:56.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i filled a single buck from it 👍,hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:18:09.950000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Else reading the first sentence would be enough to satisfy it, which would kinda contradict the ""Destiny must actively r",hold,hold,True,True,165.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-20T21:53:28.051000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","it's high mostly because I'm buying YES. If you think the resolution will be a NO, I've set up a huge limit order at 50%",increase,decrease,False,True,420.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:26:26.318000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Yet nobody complained when he clarified the criteria several times in the comments.,decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-24T19:54:16.789000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I think you’re basically spot on with the “pre-reading” prediction. Knowing the actual content is going to be pretty nas,increase,decrease,False,True,97.8741,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:21:26.808000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,its like you got a b*ner to leave a comment bro. hop the hell off and let the dude resolve. both sides have made their c,hold,decrease,False,True,9256.645,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:34:16.945000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Please just let me have this 🙏,decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-08T06:19:04.852000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Counterargument: the news cycle is probably going to be dominated by wacky midterms shit, Lex is going to want to talk a",hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:13:33.516000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,The criteria for resolving Yes is in the description. Destiny hasn't met even the most basic one. If you want to keep be,increase,increase,True,True,9152.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:04:24.420000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the 
+time
+ argument is the weakest imo. 
+If 
+Chud spent 
+10 hours
+ t",hold,increase,False,True,10952.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:35:59.917000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","To be honest, I have no idea. But I somehow put enough limit orders that I ended with a much bigger NO stake that I woul",decrease,decrease,True,True,3696.4178,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:04.933000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"be sure to view my market I created against PryingMinds, I'm petitioning he be banned or removed from creating markets d",decrease,hold,False,True,430.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:19:45.917000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","this letter doesn't count since it's not about ""powerful AI"" and also it's by the wrong organization",hold,hold,True,True,6179.1468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T18:32:56.070000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This has nothing to do with the market,increase,hold,False,True,4117.7979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T00:16:47.905000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"and when it the reviews actually slow down to about 1 per week (that sounds fair) it enters ""pseudorandom close mode"", w",increase,hold,False,True,10.4117,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link 
+here",flip,hold,False,True,8299.0168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:33:09.136000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"The description said 
+""I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it's really close and more reviews ar",decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:22:16.836000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Which poll? The polls linked above are closed.,flip,hold,False,True,252.5048,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:23:23.389000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Achieved, can you close now? I have too much mana locked in this 😁.",flip,decrease,False,True,2033.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:41.981000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,What do you mean it's literally written,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:30:50.770000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"FYI this is against our 
+community guidelines
+ and we have taken action against 
+ 
+https://manifold.markets/post/ban",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:28.765000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,you forgot he has no dnd this month,hold,decrease,False,True,900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:04:49.533000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I remember when I had my own controversial market a while back which was relatively smaller yet pissed off enough better,decrease,flip,False,True,9879.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,47.2275,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:34:00.651000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Also, I'm the main guy criticizing you here and I'm not a YES voter. I donated all my shares in the market via a manalin",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:22:34.151000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Some people just want to watch the world burn. I would just like to point out that with around 2 days left, the base rat",flip,increase,False,True,1965.4319,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:31:59.189000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The upper bound for non subatomic matter-based tables and chairs is 10^50, the number of atoms in Earth. Breaking this l",decrease,hold,False,True,160.4944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-29T07:03:49.739000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"That's the fault of 
+ for not specifying earlier on. Had he included the stipulation of ""breadth"" from the start, much ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:42:51.351000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I don't know if anyone mentioned this,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T16:06:37.298000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"10% might have been enough if it was the intro & conclusion, but he skipped both. It was a random 20% missing the start.",hold,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5
+d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:20:15.598000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This fucker hasn't unbanned me so I can't even be in dgg chat,decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5