Daily Papers

While traditional graphics methods often synthesize 3D indoor scenes autoregressively or hierarchically, recent vision-language model (VLM)-based generators predominantly adopt a one-shot paradigm where the full layout is planned at once. This one-shot approach often requires global re-optimization or complete reconstruction during interactive editing (e.g., inserting or moving objects) and can lead to physically or semantically poorly organized arrangements. To address these challenges, we propose ThinkBLOX, a VLM-based progressive reasoning framework that iteratively designs and refines 3D scenes. ThinkBLOX treats layout generation as a state-conditioned, step-by-step reasoningand-action process. To power this, we construct the ThinkBLOX-Data-200K dataset, containing 224,757 procedural placement pairs annotated with multi-view scene context, explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) rationales, and structured JSON layouts. Through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on this dataset, the VLM learns to bridge the reasoning-action gap under incremental updates. Furthermore, recognizing that scene synthesis is inherently a multisolution task where SFT suffers from reward conflict, we introduce Tier-Decoupled GDPO. This reinforcement learning scheme organizes heterogeneous rewards into distinct tiers, stabilizing policy optimization across physical validity, semantic plausibility, and reasoning-action consistency. Extensive experiments show that ThinkBLOX significantly outperforms recent one-shot and iterative baselines in physical plausibility, semantic alignment, and interactive editability. Additionally, we show that it supports diverse applications, including both global and local generation and rearrangement of 3D scenes.

Language models are increasingly trained against several verifiable rewards at once, such as the correctness and the format of a tool call, or the individual constraints of a complex instruction. Reward-decoupled normalization (GDPO) normalizes each reward separately so that different reward combinations keep distinct advantages, but it still spreads every reward's advantage evenly over the whole response, although each verifier checks only a few positions. We propose MRTPO, which assigns the advantage of each reward to the tokens relevant to it, using the information its verifier checks, without auxiliary models or token-level annotations. For each reward, the policy replays its own response with and without that reward's verifier information, and the per-token Jensen-Shannon distance between the two next-token distributions measures each token's relevance and reassigns the advantage. On text-to-SQL, multi-constraint instruction following and tool calling, MRTPO converges faster and achieves better performance than the compared methods.

As language models become increasingly capable, users expect them to provide not only accurate responses but also behaviors aligned with diverse human preferences across a variety of scenarios. To achieve this, Reinforcement learning (RL) pipelines have begun incorporating multiple rewards, each capturing a distinct preference, to guide models toward these desired behaviors. However, recent work has defaulted to apply Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) under multi-reward setting without examining its suitability. In this paper, we demonstrate that directly applying GRPO to normalize distinct rollout reward combinations causes them to collapse into identical advantage values, reducing the resolution of the training signal and resulting in suboptimal convergence and, in some cases, early training failure. We then introduce Group reward-Decoupled Normalization Policy Optimization (GDPO), a new policy optimization method to resolve these issues by decoupling the normalization of individual rewards, more faithfully preserving their relative differences and enabling more accurate multi-reward optimization, along with substantially improved training stability. We compare GDPO with GRPO across three tasks: tool calling, math reasoning, and coding reasoning, evaluating both correctness metrics (accuracy, bug ratio) and constraint adherence metrics (format, length). Across all settings, GDPO consistently outperforms GRPO, demonstrating its effectiveness and generalizability for multi-reward reinforcement learning optimization.

We aim to improve model performance in multi-reward reinforcement learning training process. Existing Group reward-Decoupled Normalization Policy Optimization (GDPO) has mitigated the issue of reward signals masking one another during direct scalarization by normalizing each reward dimension separately before aggregation. However, our experiments show that GDPO still struggles to balance reward signals with different granularities. Specifically, in some particular training tasks, the model may receive a dense reward that assigns fine-grained scores ranging from 0.1 to 1.0, together with a sparse reward that provides only binary feedback of either 0 or 1. In such cases, we find that the sparse reward may provide an insufficient optimization signal, preventing its corresponding capability from being effectively reinforced. Therefore, how can we strengthen the optimization signal from the sparse reward without sacrificing the capability already learned from the fine-grained reward? To overcome this limitation, we propose Specialize-and-Merge Online Policy Distillation (SMOPD), a two-stage training method for multi-reward optimization. Stage1-Specialize: SMOPD first employs reward-priority configurations to train multiple reward-specialized teachers, allowing each reward to be learned under conditions where its signal can effectively drive optimization. Stage2-Merge: SMOPD then utilizes online policy distillation to combine the reward-specialized capabilities of these teachers into a single student policy, while maintaining balanced task-level optimization. To validate our method, we conduct experiments on two multi-reward settings: complementary rewards(tool-calling accuracy and format) and conflicting rewards (helpful and harmless rewards). Based on above settings, SMOPD outperforms GDPO across 1.5B, 3B and 7B backbones.

As LLMs advance, post-training reinforcement learning (RL) increasingly relies on multi-dimensional rewards to cultivate comprehensive capabilities. This shift demands new algorithms capable of optimizing diverse and potentially competing objectives simultaneously. To address this, existing methods such as Group reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization (GDPO) decompose the overall score into independent reward groups, then compute the RL loss separately within each group. However, this strategy still encounters multi-reward conflicts: a single rollout can yield positive advantages on certain reward dimensions but negative ones on others, causing opposing signals to cancel each other out during aggregation, further hindering RL training efficiency. Inspired by Dynamic sAmpling Policy Optimization (DAPO), which improves RL training efficiency by filtering out ineffective rollouts with near-zero advantages, we propose Group-Dynamic reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization (GD^2PO). Specifically, GD^2PO employs a conflict-aware filtering mechanism to mask out rollouts suffering from severe reward-wise disagreement. By preventing conflicting signals from canceling each other out, this masking strategy preserves and enhances the magnitude of effective RL advantages, thereby significantly accelerating learning efficiency. Furthermore, we introduce query-level reweighting to dynamically adjust the update intensity of each query based on its overall reward consensus. Experiments on various multi-reward scenarios, including tool calling and human preference alignment, demonstrate that GD^2PO consistently and significantly outperforms existing baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/GD2PO.

We introduce GDPval, a benchmark evaluating AI model capabilities on real-world economically valuable tasks. GDPval covers the majority of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Work Activities for 44 occupations across the top 9 sectors contributing to U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Tasks are constructed from the representative work of industry professionals with an average of 14 years of experience. We find that frontier model performance on GDPval is improving roughly linearly over time, and that the current best frontier models are approaching industry experts in deliverable quality. We analyze the potential for frontier models, when paired with human oversight, to perform GDPval tasks cheaper and faster than unaided experts. We also demonstrate that increased reasoning effort, increased task context, and increased scaffolding improves model performance on GDPval. Finally, we open-source a gold subset of 220 tasks and provide a public automated grading service at evals.openai.com to facilitate future research in understanding real-world model capabilities.

Multi-reward reinforcement learning trains large language models to satisfy multiple behavioral objectives simultaneously. Reward-wise normalization, as used in GDPO, preserves reward-specific relative information within rollout groups, but different objectives can still exhibit uneven learning progress. We study this behavior through advantage energy, the sum of a reward's squared advantages over a batch. Under idealized GDPO normalization, we show that this energy is proportional to active-group density: the fraction of rollout groups in which the reward provides nonzero relative advantages. This reveals a residual batch-level signal imbalance and provides a basis for calibrating reward contributions. Based on this relation, we propose Density-Aware Reward Aggregation (DARA). We derive an inverse-square-root density correction that gives greater weight to signals from less frequently active rewards. DARA computes its weights from each rollout batch, adapting to changes in reward activity throughout training without modifying the underlying policy optimization objective. Experiments on tool calling and mathematical reasoning show that DARA learns the targeted behaviors faster than GDPO, reaching high format compliance in up to 26% fewer training steps on tool calling and near-saturated length compliance in up to 65% fewer steps on mathematical reasoning, while remaining competitive in final performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/zhaihaotian/DARA.

This paper introduces the Generalised DePIN (GDP) protocol, a comprehensive framework for decentralized physical infrastructure networks. GDP establishes a modular system, enabling tailored application across sectors like ridesharing and power systems. Leveraging device onboarding, multi-sensor redundancy, and a reward/penalty mechanism, GDP promotes genuine behavior and ensures network-wide vigilance. Through continuous audits and updates, the protocol remains dynamic, ensuring sustainable decentralized operations.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems show promise for automating real-world tasks but struggle to transfer across domains due to their domain-specific nature. Current approaches face two critical shortcomings: they require complete architectural redesign and full retraining of all components when applied to new domains. We introduce Workforce, a hierarchical multi-agent framework that decouples strategic planning from specialized execution through a modular architecture comprising: (i) a domain-agnostic Planner for task decomposition, (ii) a Coordinator for subtask management, and (iii) specialized Workers with domain-specific tool-calling capabilities. This decoupling enables cross-domain transferability during both inference and training phases: During inference, Workforce seamlessly adapts to new domains by adding or modifying worker agents; For training, we introduce Optimized Workforce Learning (OWL), which improves generalization across domains by optimizing a domain-agnostic planner with reinforcement learning from real-world feedback. To validate our approach, we evaluate Workforce on the GAIA benchmark, covering various realistic, multi-domain agentic tasks. Experimental results demonstrate Workforce achieves open-source state-of-the-art performance (69.70%), outperforming commercial systems like OpenAI's Deep Research by 2.34%. More notably, our OWL-trained 32B model achieves 52.73% accuracy (+16.37%) and demonstrates performance comparable to GPT-4o on challenging tasks. To summarize, by enabling scalable generalization and modular domain transfer, our work establishes a foundation for the next generation of general-purpose AI assistants.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO)-based Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is essential for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. It requires joint training of an actor and critic with a pretrained, fixed reward model for guidance. This approach increases computational complexity and instability due to actor-critic interdependence. Additionally, PPO lacks access to true environment rewards in LLM tasks, limiting its adaptability. Under such conditions, pretraining a value model or a reward model becomes equivalent, as both provide fixed supervisory signals without new ground-truth feedback. To address these issues, we propose Decoupled Value Policy Optimization (DVPO), a lean framework that replaces traditional reward modeling with a pretrained global value model (GVM). The GVM is conditioned on policy trajectories and predicts token-level return-to-go estimates. By decoupling value model from policy training (via frozen GVM-driven RL objectives), DVPO eliminates actor-critic interdependence, reducing GPU memory usage by 40\% and training time by 35\% compared to conventional RLHF. Experiments across benchmarks show DVPO outperforms efficient RLHF methods (e.g., DPO) while matching state-of-the-art PPO in performance.

Image captioning is one of the most fundamental tasks in computer vision. Owing to its open-ended nature, it has received significant attention in the era of multimodal large language models (MLLMs). In pursuit of ever more detailed and accurate captions, recent work has increasingly turned to reinforcement learning (RL). However, existing captioning-RL methods and evaluation metrics often emphasize a narrow notion of caption quality, inducing trade-offs across core dimensions of captioning. For example, utility-oriented objectives can encourage noisy, hallucinated, or overlong captions that improve downstream question answering while harming fluency, whereas arena-style objectives can favor fluent but generic descriptions with limited usefulness. To address this, we propose a more balanced RL framework that jointly optimizes utility-aware correctness, reference coverage, and linguistic quality. In order to effectively optimize the resulting continuous multi-objective reward formulation, we apply GDPO-style reward-decoupled normalization to continuous-valued captioning rewards and show that it improves performance over vanilla GRPO. Additionally, we introduce length-conditional reward masking, yielding a more suitable length penalty for captioning. Across LLaVA-1.5-7B and Qwen2.5-VL 3B and 7B base models, our method consistently improves caption quality, with peak gains of +13.6 DCScore, +9.0 CaptionQA, and +29.0 CapArena across different models.

Decoupled loss has been a successful reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to deal with the high data staleness under the asynchronous RL setting. Decoupled loss improves coupled-loss style of algorithms' (e.g., PPO, GRPO) learning stability by introducing a proximal policy to decouple the off-policy corrections (importance weight) from the controlling policy updates (trust region). However, the proximal policy requires an extra forward pass through the network at each training step, creating a computational bottleneck for large language models. We observe that since the proximal policy only serves as a trust region anchor between the behavior and target policies, we can approximate it through simple interpolation without explicit computation. We call this approach A-3PO (APproximated Proximal Policy Optimization). A-3PO eliminates this overhead, reducing training time by 18% while maintaining comparable performance. Code & off-the-shelf example are available at: https://github.com/inclusionAI/AReaL/blob/main/docs/algorithms/prox_approx.md

Recently, reinforcement learning (RL) has been employed for improving generative image super-resolution (ISR) performance. However, the current efforts are focused on multi-step generative ISR, while one-step generative ISR remains underexplored due to its limited stochasticity. In addition, RL methods such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) require the generation of positive and negative sample pairs offline, leading to a limited number of samples, while Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) only calculates the likelihood of the entire image, ignoring local details that are crucial for ISR. In this paper, we propose Group Direct Preference Optimization (GDPO), a novel approach to integrate RL into one-step generative ISR model training. First, we introduce a noise-aware one-step diffusion model that can generate diverse ISR outputs. To prevent performance degradation caused by noise injection, we introduce an unequal-timestep strategy to decouple the timestep of noise addition from that of diffusion. We then present the GDPO strategy, which integrates the principle of GRPO into DPO, to calculate the group-relative advantage of each online generated sample for model optimization. Meanwhile, an attribute-aware reward function is designed to dynamically evaluate the score of each sample based on its statistics of smooth and texture areas. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of GDPO in enhancing the performance of one-step generative ISR models. Code: https://github.com/Joyies/GDPO.

Agent self-evolution updates an agent's persistent state from prior experience and reuses it to solve related tasks more effectively. Evaluating self-evolution is difficult: existing benchmarks provide limited coverage of economically valuable task domains, do not always design training and test tasks such that test-time gains can be attributed to training experience, and remain vulnerable to data contamination. We present GDPevo, an evolution-native benchmark grounded in GDP-related enterprise workflows, together with the fully automated data pipeline that generates it. Its core mechanism, rule hybridization, decomposes each enterprise workflow into atomic business rules, distributes subsets of these rules across training tasks, and recombines them in held-out test tasks so that test-time gains are attributable. GDPevo spans CRM, ERP, finance, healthcare, legal, and data-centric workflows. Its V1 release contains 120 tasks in 12 groups, with five training and five held-out test tasks per group. Full automation enables the pipeline to expand the suite to 240 tasks in 24 groups (V2) within two days, providing a practical response to contamination. Using GDPevo, we evaluate four agents, each comprising a harness and a model, under four supervision types. Self-evolution consistently improves held-out accuracy by up to 16.44 percentage points. But the best evolved agents remain far below the fully informed oracle ceiling of 91.6%, indicating that the self-evolution ability of current agents remains far from fully realized. We publicly release the pipeline, benchmark, and full evaluation results at https://github.com/Prism-Shadow/GDPevo.

Traditional retrieval pipelines optimize utility through stages of candidate retrieval and reranking, where ranking operates over a predefined candidate set. Large Language Models (LLMs) broaden this into a generative process: given a candidate pool, an LLM can generate a subset and order it within a single autoregressive pass. However, this flexibility introduces a new optimization challenge: the model must search a combinatorial output space while receiving utility feedback only after the full ranked list is generated. Because this feedback is defined over the completed sequence, it cannot distinguish whether a poor result arises from failing to generate a relevant subset or from failing to rank that subset correctly. This credit assignment gap makes end-to-end optimization unstable and sample-inefficient. Existing systems often address this by separating candidate generation from ranking. However, such decoupling remains misaligned with downstream utility because ranking is limited by the candidate set it receives. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified framework that performs both within a single autoregressive rollout and optimizes them end-to-end via factorized group-relative policy optimization (F-GRPO). Our framework factorizes the policy into candidate generation and ranking while sharing a single LLM backbone, and jointly trains them with an order-invariant coverage reward and a position-aware utility reward. To address the resulting phase-specific credit assignment problem, we use separate group-relative advantages for generation and ranking within a two-phase sequence-level objective. Across sequential recommendation and multi-hop question answering benchmarks, F-GRPO improves top-ranked performance over GRPO and decoupled baselines, outperforms supervised alternatives, and remains competitive with strong zero-shot rerankers, with no architectural changes at inference time.

AI inference services -- API subscriptions, enterprise chat tools, and SaaS products with embedded AI features -- fall unambiguously within Scope 3 Category 1 under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which requires disclosure for fiscal years starting January 2024. Yet no standardised methodology exists for including them in corporate GHG inventories. Current practice either omits the category entirely or applies a generic economic input-output (EEIO) factor calibrated to the ICT sector as a whole, overestimating AI inference emissions by 10-40x relative to physically derived alternatives. We propose a four-tier framework that matches estimation precision to the data organisations can realistically obtain, progressing from direct token-based physical estimation -- using GPU energy benchmarks and regional grid carbon intensities -- down to a spend-based EEIO fallback for services where no usage data exists. Emission factors are derived from peer-reviewed GPU energy benchmarks (ML.ENERGY Leaderboard v3), confirmed grid carbon intensities (EPA eGRID 2023; Ember 2023), and published water use effectiveness data (Li et al., 2025). Applied to a 200-person European firm, the framework yields a total below 1 tCO2e, illustrating that the compliance challenge is methodological rather than magnitude-driven. We further document a water-carbon trade-off that current ESG tools do not surface: Sweden's hydro-dominated grid delivers the lowest carbon intensity in our dataset but the highest water footprint, with direct implications for data centre location strategy.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) enable parallel, order-agnostic generation with iterative refinement, offering a flexible alternative to autoregressive large language models (LLMs). However, adapting reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning to DLMs remains an open challenge because of the intractable likelihood. Pioneering work such as diffu-GRPO estimated token-level likelihoods via one-step unmasking. While computationally efficient, this approach is severely biased. A more principled foundation lies in sequence-level likelihoods, where the evidence lower bound (ELBO) serves as a surrogate. Yet, despite this clean mathematical connection, ELBO-based methods have seen limited adoption due to the prohibitive cost of likelihood evaluation. In this work, we revisit ELBO estimation and disentangle its sources of variance. This decomposition motivates reducing variance through fast, deterministic integral approximations along a few pivotal dimensions. Building on this insight, we introduce Group Diffusion Policy Optimization (GDPO), a new RL algorithm tailored for DLMs. GDPO leverages simple yet effective Semi-deterministic Monte Carlo schemes to mitigate the variance explosion of ELBO estimators under vanilla double Monte Carlo sampling, yielding a provably lower-variance estimator under tight evaluation budgets. Empirically, GDPO achieves consistent gains over pretrained checkpoints and outperforms diffu-GRPO, one of the state-of-the-art baselines, on the majority of math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.

Since 2019, the Hugging Face Model Hub has been the primary global platform for sharing open weight AI models. By releasing a dataset of the complete history of weekly model downloads (June 2020-August 2025) alongside model metadata, we provide the most rigorous examination to-date of concentration dynamics and evolving characteristics in the open model economy. Our analysis spans 851,000 models, over 200 aggregated attributes per model, and 2.2B downloads. We document a fundamental rebalancing of economic power: US open-weight industry dominance by Google, Meta, and OpenAI has declined sharply in favor of unaffiliated developers, community organizations, and, as of 2025, Chinese industry, with DeepSeek and Qwen models potentially heralding a new consolidation of market power. We identify statistically significant shifts in model properties, a 17X increase in average model size, rapid growth in multimodal generation (3.4X), quantization (5X), and mixture-of-experts architectures (7X), alongside concerning declines in data transparency, with open weights models surpassing truly open source models for the first time in 2025. We expose a new layer of developer intermediaries that has emerged, focused on quantizing and adapting base models for both efficiency and artistic expression. To enable continued research and oversight, we release the complete dataset with an interactive dashboard for real-time monitoring of concentration dynamics and evolving properties in the open model economy.

Parallel test-time scaling typically trains separate generation and verification models, incurring high training and inference costs. We propose Advantage Decoupled Preference Optimization (ADPO), a unified reinforcement learning framework that jointly learns answer generation and self-verification within a single policy. ADPO introduces two innovations: a preference verification reward improving verification capability and a decoupled optimization mechanism enabling synergistic optimization of generation and verification. Specifically, the preference verification reward computes mean verification scores from positive and negative samples as decision thresholds, providing positive feedback when prediction correctness aligns with answer correctness. Meanwhile, the advantage decoupled optimization computes separate advantages for generation and verification, applies token masks to isolate gradients, and combines masked GRPO objectives, preserving generation quality while calibrating verification scores. ADPO achieves up to +34.1% higher verification AUC and -53.5% lower inference time, with significant gains of +2.8%/+1.4% accuracy on MathVista/MMMU, +1.9 cIoU on ReasonSeg, and +1.7%/+1.0% step success rate on AndroidControl/GUI Odyssey.

Recent advances in group-based reinforcement learning (RL) have driven frontier large language models (LLMs) in single-turn tasks like mathematical reasoning. However, their scalability to long-horizon LLM agent training remains limited. Unlike static tasks, agent-environment interactions unfold over many steps and often yield sparse or delayed rewards, making credit assignment across individual steps significantly more challenging. In this work, we propose Group-in-Group Policy Optimization (GiGPO), a novel RL algorithm that achieves fine-grained credit assignment for LLM agents while preserving the appealing properties of group-based RL: critic-free, low memory, and stable convergence. GiGPO introduces a two-level structure for estimating relative advantage: (i) At the episode-level, GiGPO computes macro relative advantages based on groups of complete trajectories; (ii) At the step-level, GiGPO introduces an anchor state grouping mechanism that retroactively constructs step-level groups by identifying repeated environment states across trajectories. Actions stemming from the same state are grouped together, enabling micro relative advantage estimation. This hierarchical structure effectively captures both global trajectory quality and local step effectiveness without relying on auxiliary models or additional rollouts. We evaluate GiGPO on two challenging agent benchmarks, ALFWorld and WebShop, using Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct and Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct. Crucially, GiGPO delivers fine-grained per-step credit signals and achieves performance gains of > 12\% on ALFWorld and > 9\% on WebShop over the GRPO baseline: all while maintaining the same GPU memory overhead, identical LLM rollout, and incurring little to no additional time cost.

A prevalent assumption in LLM agent deployment holds that more structured harnesses universally improve reliability, and that higher-capability models need proportionally less structural guidance -- together implying a monotone inverse relationship between model capability tier and optimal harness complexity. We test this hypothesis through a controlled 432-run experiment crossing six models across four capability tiers with three harness conditions (light, balanced, strict) on HEAT-24, a 24-task synthetic benchmark with git-based workspace verification. Our results refute the monotone inverse relationship on two fronts. First, for the frontier chat model evaluated (Gemini 2.5 Flash), increased harness verbosity lowers VTSR by 29-38 percentage points -- a harness-complexity paradox. Second, for the frontier reasoning model evaluated (Qwen3.5-122B, extended thinking enabled), strict harness achieves the highest VTSR (91.7%) and the lowest latency, the opposite of the prediction. Within the constrained tier, a 2B model (Gemma4:e2B) matches strong-open-tier stability at 91.7% across all harnesses. Because each tier is represented by a single model in this study, these results should be interpreted as model-specific observations; harness sensitivity appears non-monotone across the models evaluated, and depends critically on model type (chat vs. reasoning). We introduce a six-label failure taxonomy showing that format_violation dominates capable-model failures while wrong_file dominates low-capability failures, and we derive practical tier-aware harness selection guidelines.

Asking a large language model to respond in JSON should be a formatting choice, not a capability tax. Yet we find that structured output requirements -- JSON, XML, LaTeX, Markdown -- substantially degrade reasoning and writing performance across open-weight models. The research response has focused on constrained decoding, but sampling bias accounts for only a fraction of the degradation. The dominant cost enters at the prompt: format-requesting instructions alone cause most of the accuracy loss, before any decoder constraint is applied. This diagnosis points to a simple principle: decouple reasoning from formatting. Whether by generating freeform first and reformatting in a second pass, or by enabling extended thinking within a single generation, separating the two concerns substantially recovers lost accuracy. Across six open-weight models, four API models, four formats, and tasks spanning math, science, logic, and writing, decoupling recovers most lost accuracy. Notably, most recent closed-weight models show little to no format tax, suggesting the problem is not inherent to structured generation but a gap that current open-weight models have yet to close. Code is available at https://github.com/ivnle/the-format-tax.

A critical component of the current generation of language models is preference alignment, which aims to precisely control the model's behavior to meet human needs and values. The most notable among such methods is Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) and its offline variant Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), both of which seek to maximize a reward model based on human preferences. In particular, DPO derives reward signals directly from the offline preference data, but in doing so overfits the reward signals and generates suboptimal responses that may contain human biases in the dataset. In this work, we propose a practical application of a diversity-seeking RL algorithm called GFlowNet-DPO (GDPO) in an offline preference alignment setting to curtail such challenges. Empirical results show GDPO can generate far more diverse responses than the baseline methods that are still relatively aligned with human values in dialog generation and summarization tasks.

The scaling-law era has transformed artificial intelligence (AI) from research into a global industry, but its rapid growth also raises concerns over energy usage, carbon emissions, and environmental sustainability. Unlike traditional sectors, the AI industry still lacks systematic carbon accounting methods that support large-scale estimates without reproducing the original training process. This leaves open questions about how large the problem is today and how large it might be in the near future. Given its central role in hosting open-source AI models, the Hugging Face (HF) platform provides a large-scale and publicly accessible corpus for carbon accounting. We estimate aggregate training emissions of HF open-source models using available emissions, energy, compute, and model metadata. To address uneven disclosure quality, we introduce a tiered approach to handle incomplete metadata, supported by empirical regressions that assess estimation reliability. We further introduce AI training carbon intensity (ATCI, emissions per compute), a metric to assess the sustainability efficiency of model training. Our results show that training the most popular open-source models (with over 5,000 downloads) has already resulted in approximately 6.0times10^4 metric tons of carbon emissions. Overall, this paper provides a scalable, empirically grounded framework for estimating training emissions from incomplete disclosures and informing future carbon reporting standards in the AI industry. Data and code are available at https://github.com/insait-institute/HuggingCarbon.

Open-weight Large Language Models (LLMs) enable scientific progress and broad deployment. However, they make it difficult to control access to sensitive capabilities. Current practice either suppresses dangerous capabilities before release or mediates access through closed services that use specialized model variants, input/output monitors, and API permissions. The former is susceptible to jailbreaks while sacrificing capability for all users to mitigate the risks posed by a few, and the latter is fundamentally incompatible with open-weight release. In this paper, we propose Tiered Language Models (TLMs), where a single set of released weights supports multiple capability levels. In its default public configuration, a TLM behaves as a conventional LLM. A compact secret key specifies a permutation over a small parameter subset, inducing an alternative computation graph over the same weights that exposes additional capabilities. We develop a training protocol that jointly pretrains both configurations from scratch, then fine-tunes the keyed configuration on private data with regularization to preserve the public model's behavior. We pretrain 180M- and 650M-parameter TLMs and demonstrate that the keyed configuration can acquire a new language, gain instruction-following ability, and memorize private factual knowledge, whereas the public configuration exhibits none of these capabilities. Moreover, we show that our approach extends naturally to multiple hierarchical tiers. Because authorization operates on the model's weight structure rather than in the input space, the mechanism resists fine-tuning-based extraction and partial key compromise. In general, TLMs take a step toward reconciling open-weight release with selective capability control.

Reinforcement learning has been widely applied to enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models. Extending the inference limits of smaller models has become a prominent research focus. However, algorithms such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) suffer from a clear drawback: the upper bound of a model's rollout responses is entirely determined by the model itself, preventing the acquisition of knowledge from samples that are either all incorrect or all correct. In this paper, we introduce Group Contrastive Policy Optimization (GCPO), a method that incorporates external standard reference answers. When the model cannot solve a problem, the reference answer supplies the correct response, steering the model toward an unequivocally accurate update direction. This approach offers two main advantages: (1) it improves training efficiency by fully utilizing every sample; (2) it enables the model to emulate the problem solving strategy of the reference answer during training, thereby enhancing generalization in reasoning. GCPO achieves outstanding results across multiple benchmark datasets, yielding substantial improvements over the baseline model. Our code is available at: https://github.com/AchoWu/GCPO.

We study income taxation when an AI agent implements economically relevant choices through a rule hidden from the government. Alongside unobserved productive ability, this hidden preference-to-execution mapping creates double unobservability: the same observable tax-base response can carry different welfare consequences. We call the resulting income welfare-opaque. Our constructions show that tax-base statistics can coincide while reform welfare effects differ, even when mechanical welfare weights are identical. We derive an optimal-tax condition that adds a response-weighted execution wedge to the familiar sufficient statistics. A higher marginal rate gains a corrective benefit under local over-execution and an additional cost under local under-execution. Observing the wedge identifies the welfare effect of a marginal reform at the prevailing schedule; bounds on it deliver bounds on that effect. A controlled laboratory compares 4,500 model runs across five AI engines. Faithful delegation selects the score maximizer in essentially all runs. Conflicted objectives produce heterogeneous responses: Claude largely preserves the score maximizer, GLM moves predominantly downward, and GPT-mini and Qwen show concentrated lower-tail increases. Qwen also makes substantial downward adjustments. Different engines locate their departures at different points and in different directions of the designed distribution. Explicit scores align model rankings; formula-based objective instructions yield more uneven agreement. Qwen shows a clear positive tax-by-objective interaction, but its direction does not generalize across engines and the pooled sign depends on its inclusion. The analysis identifies execution information as a complement to conventional tax-base statistics.

The development of artificial intelligence can be viewed as an evolution of data-driven learning paradigms, with successive shifts in data organization and utilization continuously driving advances in model capability. Current LLM research is dominated by a paradigm that relies heavily on unidirectional scaling of data size, increasingly encountering bottlenecks in data availability, acquisition cost, and training efficiency. In this work, we argue that the development of AGI is entering a new phase of data-model co-evolution, in which models actively guide data management while high-quality data, in turn, amplifies model capabilities. To implement this vision, we propose a tiered data management framework, designed to support the full LLM training lifecycle across heterogeneous learning objectives and cost constraints. Specifically, we introduce an L0-L4 tiered data management framework, ranging from raw uncurated resources to organized and verifiable knowledge. Importantly, LLMs are fully used in data management processes, such as quality scoring and content editing, to refine data across tiers. Each tier is characterized by distinct data properties, management strategies, and training roles, enabling data to be strategically allocated across LLM training stages, including pre-training, mid-training, and alignment. The framework balances data quality, acquisition cost, and marginal training benefit, providing a systematic approach to scalable and sustainable data management. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework through empirical studies, in which tiered datasets are constructed from raw corpora and used across multiple training phases. Experimental results demonstrate that tier-aware data utilization significantly improves training efficiency and model performance. To facilitate further research, we release our tiered datasets and processing tools to the community.

We propose Decoupled Residual Denoising Diffusion models (DRDD) for unified and data-efficient image-to-image (I2I) translation. While diffusion models have advanced I2I translation in terms of quality and diversity, we uncover a previously under-explored property in diffusion models. Crucially, beyond its conventional role of manifold lifting (i.e., moving data off low-dimensional manifolds), injecting Gaussian noise facilitates domain harmonization by implicitly aligning feature distributions across domains, a property particularly advantageous for unified I2I translation. However, existing diffusion models prematurely erode this harmonization effect, as noise and residuals are simultaneously removed in a single coupled diffusion process. To address this, DRDD decouples the diffusion process into two sequential and independent diffusion stages: (1) a stochastic noise diffusion for domain harmonization and manifold lifting, and (2) a deterministic residual diffusion that learns the core semantic mapping entirely within the fixed-noise domain. This decoupling preserves harmonization and manifold lifting effects throughout the transformation, substantially simplifying the learning of unified mappings across diverse tasks and domains. Notably, the noise diffusion stage is trained exclusively on abundant, unpaired target-domain images, greatly improving data efficiency. Comprehensive theoretical and empirical analysis demonstrates that DRDD is broadly compatible with mainstream diffusion models and consistently delivers robust, unified I2I translation, even under limited paired data. Our code is available at https://github.com/HKU-HealthAI/DRDD.

We introduce Timestral, a family of four time series foundation models for probabilistic forecasting, with 5M, 28M, 123M, and 209M parameters. Timestral sets a new state of the art on GIFT-Eval, TIME, and fev-bench, where Timestral-209M and Timestral-123M take the top two places on every metric. We achieve this with three ingredients: Decoupled Horizon Forecasting (DHF), which separates prediction tokens from the causally encoded context, so that longer horizons are trained without masking context and each observed value is both a forecast target and context for later forecasts; a covariate framework that natively supports known-future covariates within a causal architecture; and a two-stage pipeline that pretrains exclusively on a diverse, large-scale synthetic corpus before post-training on a mix of real and synthetic data with extended context. This report describes the model design and its benchmark results. Weights for all four models are available on Hugging Face and inference code on GitHub.

Knowledge benchmarks for LLMs face three issues: scaling-driven designs that do not operationalize disciplinary representativeness; flat-payment annotation that permits lazy consensus; and unaudited ranking instability under bounded test budgets. We introduce KINA, an 899-item benchmark across 261 fine-grained disciplines, with two formal results. First, we cast representativeness as a coverage-style objective over expert-elicited anchors and operationalize disciplinary representativeness through a proxy, yielding a (1-1/e) greedy approximation (Proposition 1); the guarantee applies to the proxy, not to population representativeness. Second, we prove a bonus-on-bar tournament weakly FOSD-dominates flat payment in released-review quality, with incentive-compatibility threshold B > Delta C / Delta p_min (Theorem 1). Evaluating 42 models from 13 labs, the top model, Gemini-3.1-Pro-Preview, reaches 53.17%, followed by Claude-Opus-4.6 at 49.92% and GPT-5.4 at 48.55%, leaving substantial headroom below saturation. The full leaderboard shows a tiered structure rather than a smooth total order: a small frontier tier lies above 48%, a dense strong-model tier spans roughly 38-45%, and low-performing models remain only modestly above the 10% chance baseline. Tool augmentation adds up to 5.17 points across the five tool-use evaluations, with gains varying substantially across models. We report bootstrap ranking-stability statistics to make bounded-budget variance explicit and to discourage over-interpretation of adjacent ranks.

Faithfulness -- how precisely a generated image aligns with its prompt -- is increasingly central to the real-world utility of text-to-image (T2I) models. Existing faithfulness benchmarks, however, rely on simple atomic instructions, on which top-tier systems already achieve near-perfect scores. As T2I models enter creative workflows, users issue multi-faceted requests combining intricate spatial relationships, stylistic constraints, and complex text rendering. In this setting, a single binary VLM-judge score no longer captures which specific constraints the model fails to satisfy. We introduce Arena-T2I Hard, a 310-prompt stress benchmark drawn from real arena T2I logs, with approximately 30 decomposed yes/no constraints per prompt spanning six categories, including text rendering. The strongest closed-source system we evaluate reaches 0.855 with a 33~pp performance gap across 11 systems, demonstrating substantial discriminative power. Moreover, high public-arena rankings fail to predict faithfulness, confirming that holistic Bradley-Terry (BT) preference scores prioritize aesthetics over fine-grained prompt adherence. We propose a dependency-aware checklist reward that decomposes each prompt into a DAG of yes/no questions and zeroes descendants of failed parents, turning faithfulness into a per-constraint training signal. Combined with a BT aesthetic reward via group-decoupled normalization (GDPO), which standardizes each reward within its rollout group so neither collapses, the recipe attains a strictly better faithfulness-aesthetics trade-off on SD3.5-Medium and FLUX.1-dev under MMRB2 pairwise comparisons than every single-reward, naive weighted-sum, or 4-reward BT-ensemble baseline.

We present a simple but powerful architecture of convolutional neural network, which has a VGG-like inference-time body composed of nothing but a stack of 3x3 convolution and ReLU, while the training-time model has a multi-branch topology. Such decoupling of the training-time and inference-time architecture is realized by a structural re-parameterization technique so that the model is named RepVGG. On ImageNet, RepVGG reaches over 80% top-1 accuracy, which is the first time for a plain model, to the best of our knowledge. On NVIDIA 1080Ti GPU, RepVGG models run 83% faster than ResNet-50 or 101% faster than ResNet-101 with higher accuracy and show favorable accuracy-speed trade-off compared to the state-of-the-art models like EfficientNet and RegNet. The code and trained models are available at https://github.com/megvii-model/RepVGG.

Machine learning demand forecasts optimize statistical accuracy yet leave excess operational volatility that inflates safety stock and amplifies the Bullwhip effect. We introduce Contextual Deconvolution (CD), a two-stage estimator that reframes demand sensing as a convex decomposition: a kernel-modulated banded operator separates transient promotion-driven shocks from a smooth structural baseline, and hierarchical partial pooling enables catalog-scale deployment without per-SKU training. The operator is data-derived, not imposed---it reduces to the identity wherever the promotional response is impulsive (most of M5, all of Favorita) and contributes only where genuine multi-day carryover exists, so the gains rest on the structural decomposition itself. Evaluating strictly out-of-sample on 30,490 M5 SKUs and 2,845 Favorita items, with calendar-aware baselines given CD's identical future calendar, we anchor the contribution on a full inventory-cost accounting: CD lowers safety stock, holding cost, and order variance but under-provisions event spikes, reducing total cost only when holding costs exceed sim20\% of stockout costs (95\% CI [17%,25%]); otherwise it is an operational-stability and inventory-capital layer, not an expected-cost minimizer. Its accuracy contribution is reliability rather than central tendency: across eleven baselines, CD attains the lowest cross-sectional dispersion of per-SKU error and mis-forecasts by more than 200\% on 0.8\% of SKUs versus 9.9--20.6\% for every baseline, ranking first on both in all four M5 draws. Because the Variance Ratio and std-based safety stock are minimized by any sufficiently smooth forecast, we treat them as diagnostics, not objectives. A supporting analysis shows the learned demand operators are non-normal, yet CD's compact parametric kernel matches their operational performance interpretably.

We introduce Toto, a time series forecasting foundation model with 151 million parameters. Toto uses a modern decoder-only architecture coupled with architectural innovations designed to account for specific challenges found in multivariate observability time series data. Toto's pre-training corpus is a mixture of observability data, open datasets, and synthetic data, and is 4-10times larger than those of leading time series foundation models. Additionally, we introduce BOOM, a large-scale benchmark consisting of 350 million observations across 2,807 real-world time series. For both Toto and BOOM, we source observability data exclusively from Datadog's own telemetry and internal observability metrics. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that Toto achieves state-of-the-art performance on both BOOM and on established general purpose time series forecasting benchmarks. Toto's model weights, inference code, and evaluation scripts, as well as BOOM's data and evaluation code, are all available as open source under the Apache 2.0 License available at https://huggingface.co/Datadog/Toto-Open-Base-1.0 and https://github.com/DataDog/toto.

This technical report describes the Time Series Optimized Transformer for Observability (Toto), a new state of the art foundation model for time series forecasting developed by Datadog. In addition to advancing the state of the art on generalized time series benchmarks in domains such as electricity and weather, this model is the first general-purpose time series forecasting foundation model to be specifically tuned for observability metrics. Toto was trained on a dataset of one trillion time series data points, the largest among all currently published time series foundation models. Alongside publicly available time series datasets, 75% of the data used to train Toto consists of fully anonymous numerical metric data points from the Datadog platform. In our experiments, Toto outperforms existing time series foundation models on observability data. It does this while also excelling at general-purpose forecasting tasks, achieving state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on multiple open benchmark datasets.

Federated Multi-Task Learning (FMTL) enables multiple clients performing heterogeneous tasks without exchanging their local data, offering broad potential for privacy preserving multi-task collaboration. However, most existing methods focus on building personalized models for each client and unable to support the aggregation of multiple heterogeneous tasks into a unified model. As a result, in real-world scenarios where task objectives, label spaces, and optimization paths vary significantly, conventional FMTL methods struggle to achieve effective joint training. To address this challenge, we propose FedDEA (Federated Decoupled Aggregation), an update-structure-aware aggregation method specifically designed for multi-task model integration. Our method dynamically identifies task-relevant dimensions based on the response strength of local updates and enhances their optimization effectiveness through rescaling. This mechanism effectively suppresses cross-task interference and enables task-level decoupled aggregation within a unified global model. FedDEA does not rely on task labels or architectural modifications, making it broadly applicable and deployment-friendly. Experimental results demonstrate that it can be easily integrated into various mainstream federated optimization algorithms and consistently delivers significant overall performance improvements on widely used NYUD-V2 and PASCAL-Context. These results validate the robustness and generalization capabilities of FedDEA under highly heterogeneous task settings.

Recent large reasoning models (LRMs) driven by reinforcement learning algorithms (e.g., GRPO) have achieved remarkable performance on challenging reasoning tasks. However, these models suffer from overthinking, generating unnecessarily long and redundant reasoning even for simple questions, which substantially increases computational cost and response latency. While existing methods incorporate length rewards to GRPO to promote concise reasoning, they incur significant performance degradation. We identify the root cause: when rewards for correct but long rollouts are penalized, GRPO's group-relative advantage function can assign them negative advantages, actively discouraging valid reasoning. To overcome this, we propose Decoupled Reward Policy Optimization (DRPO), a novel framework that decouples the length-based learning signal of correct rollouts from incorrect ones. DRPO ensures that reward signals for correct rollouts are normalized solely within the positive group, shielding them from interference by negative samples. The DRPO's objective is grounded in integrating an optimized positive data distribution, which maximizes length-based rewards under a KL regularization, into a discriminative objective. We derive a closed-form solution for this distribution, enabling efficient computation of the objective and its gradients using only on-policy data and importance weighting. Of independent interest, this formulation is general and can incorporate other preference rewards of positive data beyond length. Experiments on mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate DRPO's significant superiority over six efficient reasoning baselines. Notably, with a 1.5B model, our method achieves 77\% length reduction with only 1.1\% performance loss on simple questions like GSM8k dataset, while the follow-up baseline sacrifices 4.3\% for 68\% length reduction.

We introduce Open-Reasoner-Zero, the first open source implementation of large-scale reasoning-oriented RL training focusing on scalability, simplicity and accessibility. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that a minimalist approach, vanilla PPO with GAE (lambda=1, gamma=1) and straightforward rule-based rewards, without any KL regularization, is sufficient to scale up both response length and benchmark performance, similar to the phenomenon observed in DeepSeek-R1-Zero. Using the same base model as DeepSeek-R1-Zero-Qwen-32B, our implementation achieves superior performance on AIME2024, MATH500, and the GPQA Diamond benchmark while demonstrating remarkable efficiency -- requiring only a tenth of the training steps, compared to DeepSeek-R1-Zero pipeline. In the spirit of open source, we release our source code, parameter settings, training data, and model weights across various sizes.

We propose Process-Aware Policy Optimization (PAPO), a method that integrates process-level evaluation into Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) through decoupled advantage normalization, to address two limitations of existing reward designs. Outcome reward models (ORM) evaluate only final-answer correctness, treating all correct responses identically regardless of reasoning quality, and gradually lose the advantage signal as groups become uniformly correct. Process reward models (PRM) offer richer supervision, but directly using PRM scores causes reward hacking, where models exploit verbosity to inflate scores while accuracy collapses. PAPO resolves both by composing the advantage from an outcome component Aout, derived from ORM and normalized over all responses, and a process component Aproc, derived from a rubric-based PRM and normalized exclusively among correct responses. This decoupled design ensures that Aout anchors training on correctness while Aproc differentiates reasoning quality without distorting the outcome signal. Experiments across multiple model scales and six benchmarks demonstrate that PAPO consistently outperforms ORM, reaching 51.3% vs.\ 46.3% on OlympiadBench while continuing to improve as ORM plateaus and declines.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) can elicit strong multi-step reasoning, yet it often encourages overly verbose traces. Moreover, naive length penalties in group-relative optimization can severely hurt accuracy. We attribute this failure to two structural issues: (i) Dilution of Length Baseline, where incorrect responses (with zero length reward) depress the group baseline and over-penalize correct solutions; and (ii) Difficulty-Penalty Mismatch, where a static penalty cannot adapt to problem difficulty, suppressing necessary reasoning on hard instances while leaving redundancy on easy ones. We propose Dynamic Decoupled Conditional Advantage (DDCA) to decouple efficiency optimization from correctness. DDCA computes length advantages conditionally within the correct-response cluster to eliminate baseline dilution, and dynamically scales the penalty strength using the group pass rate as a proxy for difficulty. Experiments on GSM8K, MATH500, AMC23, and AIME25 show that DDCA consistently improves the efficiency--accuracy trade-off relative to adaptive baselines, reducing generated tokens by approximately 60% on simpler tasks (e.g., GSM8K) versus over 20% on harder benchmarks (e.g., AIME25), thereby maintaining or improving accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/alphadl/DDCA.

Reinforcement learning (RL) with group-relative advantages has become the de facto standard for post-training language model reasoners. However, when optimizing multiple reward objectives, existing methods typically scalarize the reward vector with a fixed weighted sum before group-wise standardization. We show that this design leads to two fundamental problems: rollouts with distinct reward profiles can receive identical advantages, and all objectives are optimized with fixed relative weights regardless of their current level of saturation. As a result, training continues to allocate gradient budget to already-solved objectives instead of focusing on those with greater remaining headroom. We introduce Saturation Aware Advantage Reweighting for Multi-Reward Policy Optimization (SA-MRPO), which standardizes each reward objective independently and adaptively discounts its contribution according to a batch-level estimate of objective saturation. This dynamically reallocates optimization effort toward under-optimized objectives while empirically maintaining performance on those that are already well satisfied. We further show that saturation-aware reweighting can reverse the sign of an update, rather than merely rescale its magnitude. Across mathematical reasoning with two- and three-objective reward combinations, SA-MRPO improves the harder correctness objective over GDPO in 12 of 15 benchmark comparisons, with gains of up to 5% on AIME24. On adaptive reasoning it improves accuracy on all five benchmarks, by 3.8% on average and up to 9.2 % on AMC23, and on coding benchmarks it improves pass rate by up to 2.3%, while in all settings maintaining the easier objectives near their already satisfied levels.

Regulating the importance ratio is critical for the training stability of Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) based frameworks. However, prevailing ratio control methods, such as hard clipping, suffer from non-differentiable boundaries and vanishing gradient regions, failing to maintain gradient fidelity. Furthermore, these methods lack a hazard-aware mechanism to adaptively suppress extreme deviations, leaving the optimization process vulnerable to abrupt policy shifts. To address these challenges, we propose Modulated Hazard-aware Policy Optimization (MHPO), a novel framework designed for robust and stable reinforcement learning. The proposed MHPO introduces a Log-Fidelity Modulator (LFM) to map unbounded importance ratios into a bounded, differentiable domain. This mechanism effectively prevents high-variance outlier tokens from destabilizing the loss landscape while ensuring global gradient stability. Complementarily, a Decoupled Hazard Penalty (DHP) integrates cumulative hazard functions from survival analysis to independently regulate positive and negative policy shifts. By shaping the optimization landscape with hazard-aware penalties, the proposed MHPO achieves fine-grained regulation of asymmetric policy shifts simultaneously mitigating mode collapse from over-expansion and preventing policy erosion from catastrophic contraction within a stabilized trust region. Extensive evaluations on diverse reasoning benchmarks across both text-based and vision-language tasks demonstrate that MHPO consistently outperforms existing methods, achieving superior performance while significantly enhancing training stability.

Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

AI agents are increasingly granted economic agency (executing trades, managing budgets, negotiating contracts, and spawning sub-agents), yet current frameworks gate this agency on capability benchmarks that are empirically uncorrelated with operational robustness. We introduce the Comprehension-Gated Agent Economy (CGAE), a formal architecture in which an agent's economic permissions are upper-bounded by a verified comprehension function derived from adversarial robustness audits. The gating mechanism operates over three orthogonal robustness dimensions: constraint compliance (measured by CDCT), epistemic integrity (measured by DDFT), and behavioral alignment (measured by AGT), with intrinsic hallucination rates serving as a cross-cutting diagnostic. We define a weakest-link gate function that maps robustness vectors to discrete economic tiers, and prove three properties of the resulting system: (1) bounded economic exposure, ensuring maximum financial liability is a function of verified robustness; (2) incentive-compatible robustness investment, showing rational agents maximize profit by improving robustness rather than scaling capability alone; and (3) monotonic safety scaling, demonstrating that aggregate system safety does not decrease as the economy grows. The architecture includes temporal decay and stochastic re-auditing mechanisms that prevent post-certification drift. CGAE provides the first formal bridge between empirical AI robustness evaluation and economic governance, transforming safety from a regulatory burden into a competitive advantage.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a core problem for the machine learning community and remains largely unsolved due to the significant computational resources required to evaluate hyperparameter configurations. As a result, a series of recent related works have focused on the direction of transfer learning for quickly fine-tuning hyperparameters on a dataset. Unfortunately, the community does not have a common large-scale benchmark for comparing HPO algorithms. Instead, the de facto practice consists of empirical protocols on arbitrary small-scale meta-datasets that vary inconsistently across publications, making reproducibility a challenge. To resolve this major bottleneck and enable a fair and fast comparison of black-box HPO methods on a level playing field, we propose HPO-B, a new large-scale benchmark in the form of a collection of meta-datasets. Our benchmark is assembled and preprocessed from the OpenML repository and consists of 176 search spaces (algorithms) evaluated sparsely on 196 datasets with a total of 6.4 million hyperparameter evaluations. For ensuring reproducibility on our benchmark, we detail explicit experimental protocols, splits, and evaluation measures for comparing methods for both non-transfer, as well as, transfer learning HPO.

Inventory-policy comparisons are often difficult to interpret because performance depends on the evaluation contract as much as on the policy itself. Differences in topology, demand regime, information access, feasibility constraints, shortage treatment, and Key Performance Indicator (KPI) definitions can change method rankings. We present gym-invmgmt, a Gymnasium-compatible extension of the OR-Gym inventory-management lineage for auditable cross-paradigm evaluation. The benchmark evaluates optimization, heuristic, and learned controllers under a shared CoreEnv transition, reward, action-bound, and KPI contract, while varying stress conditions through a 22-scenario core grid plus four supplemental MARL-mode rows. Within these released scenarios, informed stochastic programming provides the strongest non-oracle reference, reflecting the value of scenario hedging under forecast access, but at substantially higher online computational cost. Among learned controllers, the Proximal Policy Optimization Transformer variant (PPO-Transformer) achieves the strongest learned-policy quality at fast inference, while Residual Reinforcement Learning (Residual RL) provides competitive hybrid performance. The graph neural network variant (PPO-GNN) is highly competitive on the default divergent topology but less robust on the serial topology. Imitation learning performs well in stationary regimes but degrades under demand shift, and the bounded Large Language Model (LLM) policy-parameter baseline is best interpreted as a diagnostic controller rather than an autonomous inventory optimizer. Overall, the benchmark identifies scenario-conditioned leaders while showing that performance depends jointly on information access, demand shift, topology, and policy representation.

Post-training of large language models routinely interleaves supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with reinforcement learning (RL). These two methods have different objectives: SFT minimizes the cross-entropy loss between model outputs and expert responses, while RL maximizes reward signals derived from human preferences or rule-based verifiers. Modern reasoning models have widely adopted the practice of alternating SFT and RL training. However, there is no theoretical account of whether they can be decoupled. We prove that decoupling is impossible in either order: (1) SFT-then-RL coupling: RL increases SFT loss under SFT optimality and (2) RL-then-SFT coupling: SFT lowers the reward achieved by RL. Experiments on Qwen3-0.6B confirm the predicted degradation, verifying that SFT and RL cannot be separated without loss of prior performance in the post-training

We introduce MetroLLM-Bench, a 955-case benchmark for testing language models as the policy layer of a transit kiosk. It covers six real metro systems, ranging from 37 to 414 stations, and eleven categories that include routing, fare calculation, disruptions, accessibility, and adversarial input. In each case, the model must call structured tools and submit a machine-renderable terminal state containing an outcome, a per-ticket fare quote when applicable, and a kiosk action. Fourteen deterministic scoring components form Tier 1; eight semantic-quality components form Tier 2, six of which use a language-model judge. We report Tier 1 and the combined score of both tiers. A stratified 75/25 split reserves 717 cases for training-data generation and 238 for held-out evaluation. We evaluate twenty-six models from six vendors, of which twenty-three are ranked. On the held-out partition, a 4B Qwen 3.5 student trained through parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) exceeds both GPT-5.6 tiers on Tier 1 (91.3 against 90.6 and 90.0) and matches GPT-5.4 full at maximum reasoning effort (91.4), with a 2.6 GB Q4_K_M footprint. Larger 9B and 27B students provide no further Tier 1 improvement over the 4B student at this training scale. Across the four Qwen sizes, the PEFT gain over the corresponding base model decreases from +7.03 points at 2B (three training seeds) to -0.91 at 27B; every seed shows the same direction at every size. A deterministic rule-based baseline reaches 84.6 on Tier 1, with the remaining language-model advantage concentrated in policy adaptation, compound scenarios, accessibility, and temporal reasoning. Muse Glimmer 30B leads the composite ranking, and serving configuration alone moves the Qwen 3.5-to-3.8 comparison by 2.7 Tier 1 points. The benchmark, harness, reproduction guide, and fine-tuned students are released at https://github.com/continker/metrollm-bench.

Autoregressive rollout generation is a major computational cost in reinforcement learning for large language models. Reusing each rollout batch for additional learner updates amortizes this cost, but later updates become increasingly off-policy as the learner departs from the behavior policy. At a token position, exact off-policy correction must account for both the current action and the probability of reaching its prefix. The cumulative importance ratio provides this correction, but its product form can produce an unwieldy dynamic range. We study Prefix-Normalized Policy Optimization (PNPO), which replaces the cumulative ratio with the geometric mean of likelihood ratios along each causal prefix, preserving causal-prefix dependence at each position while compressing the log-weight scale. In controlled long-context mathematical reasoning experiments, we induce two off-policy regimes by using one or four policy-update epochs per rollout batch. PNPO does not consistently outperform GSPO with one epoch. With four epochs, it attains the highest observed Avg@32 on each benchmark; the unweighted mean of the three independently selected benchmark peaks is 50.24, 3.00 percentage points above GSPO. Under a matched 2,400-update budget, four-epoch PNPO reaches a final macro Avg@32 of 49.66 after 150 rollout batches, comparable to the 49.56 reached after 600 batches with one epoch. These results provide preliminary evidence that PNPO can be advantageous as training moves further off-policy.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under leakage controls and against a leakage-safe time-series prior on the pooled structured set, with separate evidence on FRED. In contrast, the gate gives no significant improvement on the official ForecastBench market subset, where it largely defers to the market. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence does not reliably identify when the model outperforms the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supports better abstention decisions. These results provide a practical approach for selective model use based on measured marginal value.

A complex system with cluttered observations may be a coupled mixture of multiple simple sub-systems corresponding to latent entities. Such sub-systems may hold distinct dynamics in the continuous-time domain; therein, complicated interactions between sub-systems also evolve over time. This setting is fairly common in the real world but has been less considered. In this paper, we propose a sequential learning approach under this setting by decoupling a complex system for handling irregularly sampled and cluttered sequential observations. Such decoupling brings about not only subsystems describing the dynamics of each latent entity but also a meta-system capturing the interaction between entities over time. Specifically, we argue that the meta-system evolving within a simplex is governed by projected differential equations (ProjDEs). We further analyze and provide neural-friendly projection operators in the context of Bregman divergence. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets show the advantages of our approach when facing complex and cluttered sequential data compared to the state-of-the-art.

Speculative decoding can significantly accelerate LLM serving, yet most deployments today disentangle speculator training from serving, treating speculator training as a standalone offline modeling problem. We show that this decoupled formulation introduces substantial deployment and adaptation lag: (1) high time-to-serve, since a speculator must be trained offline for a considerable period before deployment; (2) delayed utility feedback, since the true end-to-end decoding speedup is only known after training and cannot be inferred reliably from acceptance rate alone due to model-architecture and system-level overheads; and (3) domain-drift degradation, as the target model is repurposed to new domains and the speculator becomes stale and less effective. To address these issues, we present Aurora, a unified training-serving system that closes the loop by continuously learning a speculator directly from live inference traces. Aurora reframes online speculator learning as an asynchronous reinforcement-learning problem: accepted tokens provide positive feedback, while rejected speculator proposals provide implicit negative feedback that we exploit to improve sample efficiency. Our design integrates an SGLang-based inference server with an asynchronous training server, enabling hot-swapped speculator updates without service interruption. Crucially, Aurora supports day-0 deployment: a speculator can be served immediately and rapidly adapted to live traffic, improving system performance while providing immediate utility feedback. Across experiments, Aurora achieves a 1.5x day-0 speedup on recently released frontier models (e.g., MiniMax M2.1 229B and Qwen3-Coder-Next 80B). Aurora also adapts effectively to distribution shifts in user traffic, delivering an additional 1.25x speedup over a well-trained but static speculator on widely used models (e.g., Qwen3 and Llama3).

Conditional image generation enhances text-to-image synthesis with structural, spatial, or stylistic priors, but current methods face challenges in handling conflicts between sources. These include 1) input-level conflicts, where the conditioning image contradicts the text prompt, and 2) model-bias conflicts, where generative biases disrupt alignment even when conditions match the text. Addressing these conflicts requires nuanced solutions, which standard supervised fine-tuning struggles to provide. Preference-based optimization techniques like Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) show promise but are limited by gradient entanglement between text and condition signals and lack disentangled training data for multi-constraint tasks. To overcome this, we propose a bidirectionally decoupled DPO framework (BideDPO). Our method creates two disentangled preference pairs-one for the condition and one for the text-to reduce gradient entanglement. The influence of pairs is managed using an Adaptive Loss Balancing strategy for balanced optimization. We introduce an automated data pipeline to sample model outputs and generate conflict-aware data. This process is embedded in an iterative optimization strategy that refines both the model and the data. We construct a DualAlign benchmark to evaluate conflict resolution between text and condition. Experiments show BideDPO significantly improves text success rates (e.g., +35%) and condition adherence. We also validate our approach using the COCO dataset. Project Pages: https://limuloo.github.io/BideDPO/.

Modern neural network training relies on optimizers such as Adam and Muon which act on each weight matrix as a single object. Yet every weight matrix carries two distinct quantities -- a magnitude and a direction -- and all optimizers stepping in the matrix as a whole couple their dynamics: the directional change from an update depends on the current magnitude, while the magnitude drifts as a byproduct of learning the direction, so neither is governed directly by the learning rate. Typical training therefore leans on surrounding recipes such as weight decay and warmup to keep learning stable at scale, though these regulate the coupling only indirectly; other recent methods instead constrain the weight to a fixed-norm sphere, but add no learnable magnitude, leaving scale control to normalization layers alone. We propose Magnitude--Direction (MD) Decoupling, an optimizer modification that factorizes each weight into a fixed-norm direction on a hypersphere and learnable per-row and per-column magnitude gains, updated at separate learning rates, all while the model still sees a single fused weight tensor. The method is agnostic to the base optimizer and removes the need for weight decay and warmup. Across both Adam and Muon, MD Decoupling improves on well-tuned baselines, transfers the optimal LR across model width without retuning, and continues to help at scale on large Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. Treating magnitude and direction as separately controlled quantities thus yields more predictable training dynamics and a simple, broadly applicable improvement to modern optimizers.

Reusing the attention KV cache across requests is a standard way to cut prefill cost in long-context LLM serving, and production systems increasingly back the per-engine cache with a remote tier shared by every engine. We study such a tier in a disaggregated deployment of GLM-5.3, an FP8 mixture-of-experts model with multi-head latent attention (MLA), on 8xB300 nodes running prefill context parallelism (PCP8). Enabling the remote tier (LMCache with a Valkey store) left median time-to-first-token unchanged but raised the 16k-token p99 from 3.96 s to 17.3 s. Replaying a production request stream on an isolated engine, we find that a remote hit took 0.88 s against 0.31 s to recompute the prompt, and that synchronous loading turned a hit-heavy stream into an unstable queue: p99 83.32 s with the GPUs 7% busy. A two-term cost model explains both: a hit pays off only if the tier delivers more than B* = sR (2.53 GB/s for this model and GPU), and a fixed per-hit engine cost (T0 ~ 0.33 s) means that hits on prompts shorter than about 17k tokens cannot beat recompute at any bandwidth. Guided by the model, we (i) shard the MLA KV store across PCP ranks, with a proof that the existing minimum-over-ranks lookup returns the longest cached prefix and a load protocol that can never desynchronize collectives; (ii) partition the remote tier by rank, one server instance per rank with no coordination, which raises GET bandwidth 6.3x to 10.76 GB/s; (iii) add asynchronous loading to the sharded store; and (iv) fix three client bugs that caused unbounded stalls. On the hit-heavy stream, with 98.5% of prompt tokens served from the remote tier, p99 falls from 83.32 s to 0.67 s. The sharded store raises prefill throughput by 14%, and by 34% together with an upstream kernel fix. All changes are submitted upstream to LMCache.

Congestion is a common failure mode of markets, where consumers compete inefficiently on the same subset of goods (e.g., chasing the same small set of properties on a vacation rental platform). The typical economic story is that prices decongest by balancing supply and demand. But in modern online marketplaces, prices are typically set in a decentralized way by sellers, and the information about items is inevitably partial. The power of a platform is limited to controlling representations -- the subset of information about items presented by default to users. This motivates the present study of decongestion by representation, where a platform seeks to learn representations that reduce congestion and thus improve social welfare. The technical challenge is twofold: relying only on revealed preferences from the choices of consumers, rather than true preferences; and the combinatorial problem associated with representations that determine the features to reveal in the default view. We tackle both challenges by proposing a differentiable proxy of welfare that can be trained end-to-end on consumer choice data. We develop sufficient conditions for when decongestion promotes welfare, and present the results of extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data that demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Offline-to-online reinforcement learning (RL) is a training paradigm that combines pre-training on a pre-collected dataset with fine-tuning in an online environment. However, the incorporation of online fine-tuning can intensify the well-known distributional shift problem. Existing solutions tackle this problem by imposing a policy constraint on the policy improvement objective in both offline and online learning. They typically advocate a single balance between policy improvement and constraints across diverse data collections. This one-size-fits-all manner may not optimally leverage each collected sample due to the significant variation in data quality across different states. To this end, we introduce Family Offline-to-Online RL (FamO2O), a simple yet effective framework that empowers existing algorithms to determine state-adaptive improvement-constraint balances. FamO2O utilizes a universal model to train a family of policies with different improvement/constraint intensities, and a balance model to select a suitable policy for each state. Theoretically, we prove that state-adaptive balances are necessary for achieving a higher policy performance upper bound. Empirically, extensive experiments show that FamO2O offers a statistically significant improvement over various existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the D4RL benchmark. Codes are available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/FamO2O.

Existing agent benchmarks ask whether the agent finished the task. We ask whether it finished it within policy. We introduce Fiducia-bench, a benchmark for the governability of financial agents---whether they escalate when obligated, abstain when required, and leave an auditable trail---and use it to study a question no prior benchmark addresses: does decomposing an agent into components degrade its governance? It does, and the mechanism is specific. Policy-relevant facts discovered by one component are attenuated at the handoff boundary before reaching the component that must act on them. In a 626-episode experiment across 100 KYC/AML task variants, two models, and three architectures, a 32B open-weights model attenuated 0% of discovered facts under a single-loop baseline, 56% under a fixed pipeline, and 85% under an orchestrator-subagent architecture (all at constraint distance 2). A stronger model (gpt-4.1-mini) attenuated 3-6% under the same conditions, suggesting the governance cost of decomposition is partly a function of model capability. Critically, the same mechanism produces both under-escalation and over-escalation, depending on whether the dropped fact was a risk signal or an exculpating one. The benchmark, all tasks, and the verification harness are open-source

Reinforcement learning (RL) is pivotal for enabling large language models (LLMs) to generate long chains of thought (CoT) for complex tasks like math and reasoning. However, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), effective in many RL scenarios, fails in long CoT tasks. This paper identifies that value initialization bias and reward signal decay are the root causes of PPO's failure. We propose Value-Calibrated PPO (VC-PPO) to address these issues. In VC-PPO, the value model is pretrained to tackle initialization bias, and the Generalized Advantage Estimation (GAE) computation is decoupled between the actor and critic to mitigate reward signal decay. Experiments on the American Invitational Mathematics Examination (AIME) show that VC-PPO significantly boosts PPO performance. Ablation studies show that techniques in VC-PPO are essential in enhancing PPO for long CoT tasks.

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

Learned optimizers are powerful alternatives to hand-designed update rules like Adam, yet they have seen limited practical adoption since they often fail to meta-generalize beyond their training distribution and incur high meta-training cost. For instance, prior work, VeLO, scaled meta-training to 4,000 TPU months (sim10times GPT-3 compute) to meta-train a general-purpose optimizer but it failed to generalize beyond 600M parameters tasks. In this work, we present a surprising finding: by crafting a simple normalized optimizer architecture and augmenting meta-training, it becomes feasible to meta-train a performant general-purpose learned update rule on a tiny fraction of VeLO compute, 4.5 GPU hours to be precise. Our learned update rule scales stably to a billion-scale pretraining task (GPT-3 XL 1.3B) which is six orders of magnitude larger than its meta-training distribution. Furthermore, it shows strong performance across diverse out-of-distribution tasks and is compatible with modern optimization harness that includes orthogonalization, distinct update rules for input-output and hidden weights, and decoupled weight decay. In all, this work paves the way for practically applicable learnable optimization algorithms, unlocking exploration of richer meta-training and data curation recipes to further improve performance.

The purpose of offline multi-task reinforcement learning (MTRL) is to develop a unified policy applicable to diverse tasks without the need for online environmental interaction. Recent advancements approach this through sequence modeling, leveraging the Transformer architecture's scalability and the benefits of parameter sharing to exploit task similarities. However, variations in task content and complexity pose significant challenges in policy formulation, necessitating judicious parameter sharing and management of conflicting gradients for optimal policy performance. In this work, we introduce the Harmony Multi-Task Decision Transformer (HarmoDT), a novel solution designed to identify an optimal harmony subspace of parameters for each task. We approach this as a bi-level optimization problem, employing a meta-learning framework that leverages gradient-based techniques. The upper level of this framework is dedicated to learning a task-specific mask that delineates the harmony subspace, while the inner level focuses on updating parameters to enhance the overall performance of the unified policy. Empirical evaluations on a series of benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of HarmoDT, verifying the effectiveness of our approach.

Unfair treatment and discrimination are critical ethical concerns in AI systems, particularly as their adoption expands across diverse domains. Addressing these challenges, the recent introduction of the EU AI Act establishes a unified legal framework to ensure legal certainty for AI innovation and investment while safeguarding public interests, such as health, safety, fundamental rights, democracy, and the rule of law (Recital 8). The Act encourages stakeholders to initiate dialogue on existing AI fairness notions to address discriminatory outcomes of AI systems. However, these notions often overlook the critical role of Socio-Economic Status (SES), inadvertently perpetuating biases that favour the economically advantaged. This is concerning, given that principles of equalization advocate for equalizing resources or opportunities to mitigate disadvantages beyond an individual's control. While provisions for discrimination are laid down in the AI Act, specialized directions should be broadened, particularly in addressing economic disparities perpetuated by AI systems. In this work, we explore the limitations of popular AI fairness notions using a real-world dataset (Adult), highlighting their inability to address SES-driven disparities. To fill this gap, we propose a novel fairness notion, Socio-Economic Parity (SEP), which incorporates SES and promotes positive actions for underprivileged groups while accounting for factors within an individual's control, such as working hours, which can serve as a proxy for effort. We define a corresponding fairness measure and optimize a model constrained by SEP to demonstrate practical utility. Our results show the effectiveness of SEP in mitigating SES-driven biases. By analyzing the AI Act alongside our method, we lay a foundation for aligning AI fairness with SES factors while ensuring legal compliance.

Reinforcement learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for eliciting reasoning capabilities in large language models, particularly in mathematics and coding. While recent efforts have extended this paradigm to broader general scientific (STEM) domains, the complex interplay between supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and RL in these contexts remains underexplored. In this paper, we conduct controlled experiments revealing a critical challenge: for general STEM domains, RL applied directly to base models is highly sample-inefficient and is consistently surpassed by supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on moderate-quality responses. Yet sequential SFT followed by RL can further improve performance, suggesting that the two stages play complementary roles, and that how training data is allocated between them matters. Therefore, we propose DeReason, a difficulty-based data decoupling strategy for general reasoning. DeReason partitions training data by reasoning intensity estimated via LLM-based scoring into reasoning-intensive and non-reasoning-intensive subsets. It allocates broad-coverage, non-reasoning-intensive problems to SFT to establish foundational domain knowledge, and reserves a focused subset of difficult problems for RL to cultivate complex reasoning. We demonstrate that this principled decoupling yields better performance than randomly splitting the data for sequential SFT and RL. Extensive experiments on general STEM and mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that our decoupled curriculum training significantly outperforms SFT-only, RL-only, and random-split baselines. Our work provides a systematic study of the interplay between SFT and RL for general reasoning, offering a highly effective and generalized post-training recipe.

This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find that network topology descriptors evaluated from section-specific trade networks substantially enhance the quality of a country's GDP growth forecast. We also find that non-linear models, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, outperform traditional linear models used in the economics literature. Using SHAP values to interpret these non-linear model's predictions, we find that about half of most important features originate from the network descriptors, underscoring their vital role in refining forecasts. Moreover, this study emphasizes the significance of recent economic performance, population growth, and the primary sector's influence in shaping economic growth predictions, offering novel insights into the intricacies of economic growth forecasting.

Historical street-view imagery records urban evolution, but uneven coverage leaves substantial gaps in historical records. Generating plausible past appearances requires restoring changed structures while preserving persistent scene content. We construct VIGOR-his, a decade-spanning cross-view dataset containing 43,653 location-level quadruplets across 11 cities on three continents. Its automated pipeline performs spatial pairing, consistency screening, change classification, and the generation and validation of satellite-based change descriptions and local editing instructions. Based on VIGOR-his, we propose CrossTimeEdit, a model that reformulates historical street-view generation as editing, using recent street views to constrain viewpoint and unchanged appearance and temporal satellite differences as change evidence. Starting from FLUX.2 [Klein] 4B, we train CrossTimeEdit through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) followed by online reinforcement learning (RL). We design three street-view editing criteria, namely Instruction Alignment (IA), Background Preservation (BP), and Quality and Physical Plausibility (QP), as both RL reward dimensions and evaluation metrics. We optimize this multi-reward objective using Within Group Relative Policy Optimization for flow-matching models (Flow-GRPO) with Group reward-Decoupled Normalization Policy Optimization (GDPO), which normalizes each reward dimension before aggregation. CrossTimeEdit improves overall performance across the three editing criteria by 17.12\% over the pretrained baseline and outperforms cross-view generation models in scene consistency, visual realism, and perceptual quality. The implementation code, dataset, and model weights are available at https://luhanwen67.github.io/CrossTimeEdit-release/.

Multi-agent systems perform well on general reasoning tasks. However, the lack of training in specialized areas hinders their accuracy. Current training methods train a unified large language model (LLM) for all agents in the system. This may limit the performances due to different distributions underlying for different agents. Therefore, training multi-agent systems with distinct LLMs should be the next step to solve. However, this approach introduces optimization challenges. For example, agents operate at different frequencies, rollouts involve varying sub-agent invocations, and agents are often deployed across separate servers, disrupting end-to-end gradient flow. To address these issues, we propose M-GRPO, a hierarchical extension of Group Relative Policy Optimization designed for vertical Multi-agent systems with a main agent (planner) and multiple sub-agents (multi-turn tool executors). M-GRPO computes group-relative advantages for both main and sub-agents, maintaining hierarchical credit assignment. It also introduces a trajectory-alignment scheme that generates fixed-size batches despite variable sub-agent invocations. We deploy a decoupled training pipeline in which agents run on separate servers and exchange minimal statistics via a shared store. This enables scalable training without cross-server backpropagation. In experiments on real-world benchmarks (e.g., GAIA, XBench-DeepSearch, and WebWalkerQA), M-GRPO consistently outperforms both single-agent GRPO and multi-agent GRPO with frozen sub-agents, demonstrating improved stability and sample efficiency. These results show that aligning heterogeneous trajectories and decoupling optimization across specialized agents enhances tool-augmented reasoning tasks.

With more open-source models available for diverse tasks, model merging has gained attention by combining models into one, reducing training, storage, and inference costs. Current research mainly focuses on model merging for full fine-tuning, overlooking the popular LoRA. However, our empirical analysis reveals that: a) existing merging methods designed for full fine-tuning perform poorly on LoRA; b) LoRA modules show much larger parameter magnitude variance than full fine-tuned weights; c) greater parameter magnitude variance correlates with worse merging performance. Considering that large magnitude variances cause deviations in the distribution of the merged parameters, resulting in information loss and performance degradation, we propose a Decoupled and Orthogonal merging approach(DO-Merging). By separating parameters into magnitude and direction components and merging them independently, we reduce the impact of magnitude differences on the directional alignment of the merged models, thereby preserving task information. Furthermore, we introduce a data-free, layer-wise gradient descent method with orthogonal constraints to mitigate interference during the merging of direction components. We provide theoretical guarantees for both the decoupling and orthogonal components. And we validate through extensive experiments across vision, language, and multi-modal domains that our proposed DO-Merging can achieve significantly higher performance than existing merging methods at a minimal cost. Notably, each component can be flexibly integrated with existing methods, offering near free-lunch improvements across tasks.

Vaccine supply chain optimization can benefit from hierarchical time series forecasting, when grouping the vaccines by type or location. However, forecasts of different hierarchy levels become incoherent when higher levels do not match the sum of the lower levels forecasts, which can be addressed by reconciliation methods. In this paper, we tackle the vaccine sale forecasting problem by modeling sales data from GSK between 2010 and 2021 as a hierarchical time series. After forecasting future values with several ARIMA models, we systematically compare the performance of various reconciliation methods, using statistical tests. We also compare the performance of the forecast before and after COVID. The results highlight Minimum Trace and Weighted Least Squares with Structural scaling as the best performing methods, which provided a coherent forecast while reducing the forecast error of the baseline ARIMA.

Consolidating specialized foundation models into a unified generalist is a central goal of post-training. Two approaches are in common use: model merging, which is fast but treated as a heuristic, and multi-teacher on-policy distillation, which matches distributions but demands heavy rollout compute and suffers from cross-task gradient conflict. We show that the two are one objective seen at different orders. Within a shared basin of homologous specialists, the multi-teacher on-policy distillation objective is, to second order, exactly the Fisher-merging objective. Its minimizer is therefore the Fisher merge, a classic model-merging method given by a closed-form combination of the specialists, so merging is optimal, to second order, as a closed-form stage of distillation. Building on this identification, we propose Residual-Governed Branch-and-Merge(RGBM), a two-phase consolidation procedure. Concretely, a full-parameter Fisher merge is intractable on foundation models, so Phase~1 restricts the merge to the task-vector subspace. Extending tangent-space analyses of merging, we show that the same coefficients that mix task vectors also mix implicit rewards, which lets a residual program on unlabelled prompts solve for them. The program minimizes the worst per-domain residual and reports its energy-normalized values as the domain residual spectrum. Phase~2 lets this spectrum govern what may be added: RGBM passivates domains with low normalized residuals, trains isolated branches only for domains above the spectral gap, and writes back the admitted updates with calibrated shrinkage. On two open-source consolidation suites, the Phase~1 merge alone matches or outperforms fully trained multi-teacher distillation, and RGBM improves on it further with zero extra joint-training steps, whereas every un-gated write-back, including continued joint distillation from the merge, falls below it.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has become a dominant architecture for scaling Large Language Models (LLMs) efficiently by decoupling total parameters from computational cost. However, this decoupling creates a critical challenge: predicting the model capacity of a given MoE configurations (e.g., expert activation ratio and granularity) remains an unresolved problem. To address this gap, we introduce Efficiency Leverage (EL), a metric quantifying the computational advantage of an MoE model over a dense equivalent. We conduct a large-scale empirical study, training over 300 models up to 28B parameters, to systematically investigate the relationship between MoE architectural configurations and EL. Our findings reveal that EL is primarily driven by the expert activation ratio and the total compute budget, both following predictable power laws, while expert granularity acts as a non-linear modulator with a clear optimal range. We integrate these discoveries into a unified scaling law that accurately predicts the EL of an MoE architecture based on its configuration. To validate our derived scaling laws, we designed and trained Ling-mini-beta, a pilot model for Ling-2.0 series with only 0.85B active parameters, alongside a 6.1B dense model for comparison. When trained on an identical 1T high-quality token dataset, Ling-mini-beta matched the performance of the 6.1B dense model while consuming over 7x fewer computational resources, thereby confirming the accuracy of our scaling laws. This work provides a principled and empirically-grounded foundation for the scaling of efficient MoE models.

We introduce Humans-Junior, a 3.8B model that matches GPT-4o on the FACTS Grounding public subset within a pm 5 pp equivalence margin. Results. On Q1--Q500 under identical judges, GPT-4o scores 73.5% (95% CI 69.5--77.2) and Humans-Junior 72.7% (95% CI 68.7--76.5); the paired difference is 0.8 pp (bootstrap 95% CI -3.1 to +4.7; permutation p = 0.72; Cohen's d = 0.023). TOST establishes equivalence at pm 5 pp (not at pm 3 pp). When purchased as managed APIs, Humans-Junior's base model (Phi-3.5-mini-instruct) is approx 19times less expensive than GPT-4o on Microsoft AI Foundry pricing; self-hosted or edge deployments can drive incremental inference cost toward zero. Measured vs estimated pricing sources are tabulated in Appendix E. Method. Our approach combines minimal directed "Exoskeleton Reasoning" scaffolds with behavioral fine-tuning that teaches protocol compliance (epistemic discipline) rather than domain answers. Fine-tuning alone adds little; combined, they synergize (+17.7 pp, p < 0.001) and reduce variance (approx 25%). In prompt-only settings on frontier models (Q1--Q100; non-comparable), directed reasoning improved GPT-4o by +11.8 pp to 85.3% and Gemini-2.5-Pro by +5.0 pp to 93.3% (baseline 88.3%, n = 100); see Section~5. TL;DR. A 3.8B model achieves GPT-4o-level FACTS accuracy (equivalent within pm 5 pp on Q1--Q500). Cloud pricing shows approx 19times lower cost versus GPT-4o, and self-hosted/edge deployments can approach zero marginal cost. Pricing sources are listed in Appendix E. Frontier prompt-only gains (Q1--Q100; non-comparable) and optimized-prompt exploratory results under earlier judges are summarized in Appendix F. Keywords: Small Language Models, Factual Grounding, Directed Reasoning, Fine-Tuning, Model Alignment, Cost-Efficient AI

Weight decay (WD) is a traditional regularization technique in deep learning, but despite its ubiquity, its behavior is still an area of active research. Golatkar et al. have recently shown that WD only matters at the start of the training in computer vision, upending traditional wisdom. Loshchilov et al. show that for adaptive optimizers, manually decaying weights can outperform adding an l_2 penalty to the loss. This technique has become increasingly popular and is referred to as decoupled WD. The goal of this paper is to investigate these two recent empirical observations. We demonstrate that by applying WD only at the start, the network norm stays small throughout training. This has a regularizing effect as the effective gradient updates become larger. However, traditional generalizations metrics fail to capture this effect of WD, and we show how a simple scale-invariant metric can. We also show how the growth of network weights is heavily influenced by the dataset and its generalization properties. For decoupled WD, we perform experiments in NLP and RL where adaptive optimizers are the norm. We demonstrate that the primary issue that decoupled WD alleviates is the mixing of gradients from the objective function and the l_2 penalty in the buffers of Adam (which stores the estimates of the first-order moment). Adaptivity itself is not problematic and decoupled WD ensures that the gradients from the l_2 term cannot "drown out" the true objective, facilitating easier hyperparameter tuning.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is widely used to train reasoning language models, where it computes advantages by centering and normalizing rewards across rollouts of the same prompt. For multiple rewards, GRPO sums the reward components and normalizes the total reward by its within-group standard deviation. The corresponding variance equals the sum of all pairwise reward covariances. For a fixed centered reward, larger aggregate covariance produces smaller advantages, and vice versa, allowing update magnitudes to adapt to reward dependence. However, correlated rewards with large scales can dominate this normalization and suppress signals from smaller-scale rewards. We propose Correlation-Normalized GRPO (CorrGRPO), which normalizes pairwise covariances into Pearson correlation coefficients. CorrGRPO keeps the centered total reward unchanged while balancing the influence of differently scaled rewards on the correlation-based normalization. This allows advantage magnitudes to adapt to reward correlations without the normalization being dominated by large-scale reward components. We compare CorrGRPO with GRPO and other variants on code generation, tool calling, and agent security, using models ranging from 0.5B to 8B parameters. These tasks all involve multiple rewards that can improve together or present tradeoffs. Results show improvements across three domains, including code generation, tool calling, and agent security. Our code is available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/CorrGRPO.

Open-source AI is scaling rapidly, and model hubs now host millions of artifacts. Each foundation model can spawn large numbers of fine-tunes, adapters, quantizations, merges, and forks. We take the position that compute efficiency alone is insufficient for sustainability in open-source AI: lower per-run costs can accelerate experimentation and deployment, increasing aggregate environmental footprint unless impacts are measurable and comparable across derivative lineages. However, the energy use, water consumption, and emissions of these derivative lineages are rarely measured or disclosed in a consistent, comparable manner, leaving ecosystem-level impact largely invisible. We argue that sustainable open-source AI requires coordination infrastructure that tracks impacts across model lineages, not only base models. We propose Data and Impact Accounting (DIA), a lightweight, non-restrictive transparency layer that (i) standardizes carbon and water reporting metadata, (ii) integrates low-friction measurement into common training and inference pipelines, and (iii) aggregates reports through public dashboards to summarize cumulative impacts across releases and derivatives. DIA makes derivative costs visible and supports ecosystem-level accountability while preserving openness. https://vectorinstitute.github.io/ai-impact-accounting/

Model merging combines multiple fine-tuned checkpoints into a single model without additional training, offering an attractive approach to reusing models and efficiently improving performance. However, it remains unclear whether the advantages reported for settings where all merged experts have distinct roles and are tuned on clearly separated tasks also hold in settings where the merged experts do not have clearly distinct roles, but are trained on overlapping or even conflicting objectives. To evaluate this setting, we present a large-scale, systematic evaluation of "in-the-wild" model merging of heterogeneous experts, that may have been trained on overlapping or conflicting objectives. Concretely, we evaluate six state-of-the-art merging methods, including recent subspace methods, across four open-weight LLMs, twelve fine-tuned checkpoints per base model, and sixteen standard LLM benchmarks. Evaluating through standardized benchmarks, we measure both the probability that a model merged from a heterogeneous set of experts outperforms the base model and we measure relative gains over the best individual checkpoint. Our results show that the oldest and simplest method, Task Arithmetic, is the only approach that reliably yields performance gains on LLMs in this "in-the-wild" setting. Other interference-aware and subspace merging methods typically do not result in notable improvements over the base model. Our findings indicate that current merging techniques mostly do not enable extracting useful weight updates from heterogeneous and potentially conflicting versions. This motivates the design of LLM-specific merging algorithms and merging-aware fine-tuning methods.

Conditional time series generation plays a critical role in addressing data scarcity and enabling causal analysis in real-world applications. Despite its increasing importance, the field lacks a standardized and systematic benchmarking framework for evaluating generative models across diverse conditions. To address this gap, we introduce the Conditional Time Series Generation Benchmark (ConTSG-Bench). ConTSG-Bench comprises a large-scale, well-aligned dataset spanning diverse conditioning modalities and levels of semantic abstraction, first enabling systematic evaluation of representative generation methods across these dimensions with a comprehensive suite of metrics for generation fidelity and condition adherence. Both the quantitative benchmarking and in-depth analyses of conditional generation behaviors have revealed the traits and limitations of the current approaches, highlighting critical challenges and promising research directions, particularly with respect to precise structural controllability and downstream task utility under complex conditions.

Deep ensemble methods often improve predictive performance, yet they suffer from three practical limitations: redundancy among base models that inflates computational cost and degrades conditioning, unstable weighting under multicollinearity, and overfitting in meta-learning pipelines. We propose a regularized meta-learning framework that addresses these challenges through a four-stage pipeline combining redundancy-aware projection, statistical meta-feature augmentation, and cross-validated regularized meta-models (Ridge, Lasso, and ElasticNet). Our multi-metric de-duplication strategy removes near-collinear predictors using correlation and MSE thresholds (τ_{corr}=0.95), reducing the effective condition number of the meta-design matrix while preserving predictive diversity. Engineered ensemble statistics and interaction terms recover higher-order structure unavailable to raw prediction columns. A final inverse-RMSE blending stage mitigates regularizer-selection variance. On the Playground Series S6E1 benchmark (100K samples, 72 base models), the proposed framework achieves an out-of-fold RMSE of 8.582, improving over simple averaging (8.894) and conventional Ridge stacking (8.627), while matching greedy hill climbing (8.603) with substantially lower runtime (4 times faster). Conditioning analysis shows a 53.7\% reduction in effective matrix condition number after redundancy projection. Comprehensive ablations demonstrate consistent contributions from de-duplication, statistical meta-features, and meta-ensemble blending. These results position regularized meta-learning as a stable and deployment-efficient stacking strategy for high-dimensional ensemble systems.

Model merging has shown great promise at combining expert models, but the benefit of merging is unclear when merging ``generalist'' models trained on many tasks. We explore merging in the context of large (sim100B) models, by recycling checkpoints that exhibit tradeoffs among different tasks. Such checkpoints are often created in the process of developing a frontier model, and many suboptimal ones are usually discarded. Given a pool of model checkpoints obtained from different training runs (e.g., different stages, objectives, hyperparameters, and data mixtures), which naturally show tradeoffs across different language capabilities (e.g., instruction following vs. code generation), we investigate whether merging can recycle such suboptimal models into a Pareto-optimal one. Our optimization algorithm tunes the weight of each checkpoint in a linear combination, resulting in a Pareto-optimal models that outperforms both individual models and merge-based baselines. Further analysis shows that good merges tend to include almost all checkpoints with with non-zero weights, indicating that even seemingly bad initial checkpoints can contribute to good final merges.

Industrial recommenders increasingly adopt the pretrain-then-transfer paradigm, yet behavioral distribution drift raises two questions: what to learn from behavior sequences, and how to transfer the learned knowledge while the pretrained model is continually refreshed. To resolve them, we propose Knowledge-Geometry Decoupling (KGD). For what to learn, conventional next-token prediction treats adjacency as dependency and may encode spurious transitions across unrelated sessions. We introduce Behavioral Multi-Token Prediction (BMTP) to retain only collaboratively or semantically related future items as supervision, yielding cleaner and more transferable behavioral knowledge. For how to transfer, pretrained knowledge and task-specific geometry impose conflicting optimization demands on shared parameters. To handle it, KGD assigns them to separate parameter sets: a refreshable encoder owns behavioral knowledge, while a task learner reads contextualized encoder states through read-only cross-attention and writes task-specific geometry through Anchored Calibration Residual (ACR) orthogonal to the pretrained embedding. The decoupled ownership enables continual knowledge refresh without task-gradient interference or invalidating downstream adaptation. KGD improves over strong pretrain-transfer baselines by 4-12% on eight public benchmarks and sustains its advantage over a 90-day production stream where baselines show no gains. KGD has been fully deployed in Shopee. In a live A/B test on Shopee Homepage Search, it increases GMV per user by 1.75% and advertising revenue by 1.53%, demonstrating its high practical value. We provide the core implementation of KGD at https://github.com/FuCongResearchSquad/KGD4REC.