model_cards/A2.md

Model Card · A2 — Is this cell-hour in the top decile of violation intensity?

Generated 2026-09-02 from reports/ — do not edit by hand.

What this model answers

Is this cell-hour in the top decile of violation intensity?

Caveats

• The original goal of PR-AUC >= 0.45 was unreachable by construction (F10): it assumed ~10% prevalence, but only 2.94% of cell-hours are non-zero, so the label lands at 0.291%.
• Read scores against the 0.291% base rate, not against 0.45. The best learned family is a 46.9x lift over it.

Results

Ranked by PR-AUC ↑ (higher is better). Every family that ran is listed, including those that lost — the comparison is the deliverable.

Model	Family	PR-AUC ↑	ROC-AUC ↑	Brier ↓	Best F1 ↑	Fit	Beats baseline
random_forest	trees	0.1365	0.9380	0.0027	0.2312	64s	yes
catboost	gbdt	0.1305	0.9341	0.0027	0.2203	35s	yes
xgboost	gbdt	0.1281	0.9368	0.0027	0.2153	20s	yes
extra_trees	trees	0.1218	0.9362	0.0027	0.2138	23s	yes
stacked	ensemble	0.1200	0.9363	0.0028	0.1902	233s	yes
logistic	linear	0.1127	0.9204	0.0027	0.2074	11s	yes
hist_gbm	gbdt	0.0881	0.9128	0.0031	0.1896	4s	yes
lightgbm	gbdt	0.0357	0.9229	0.0054	0.0926	14s	yes
prior	baseline	0.0029	0.5000	0.0029	0.0058	0s	baseline

Best learned family: random_forest at 0.1365, 46.9x the strongest baseline (prior at 0.0029).

Reproduction

make data && make ingest && make features
make train

Seed 42. Splits are chronological, never random.