| # Model Card · A2 — Is this cell-hour in the top decile of violation intensity? |
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| *Generated 2026-09-02 from `reports/` — do not edit by hand.* |
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| ## What this model answers |
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| Is this cell-hour in the top decile of violation intensity? |
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| ## Caveats |
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| - The original goal of PR-AUC >= 0.45 was unreachable by construction (F10): it assumed ~10% prevalence, but only 2.94% of cell-hours are non-zero, so the label lands at 0.291%. |
| - Read scores against the 0.291% base rate, not against 0.45. The best learned family is a 46.9x lift over it. |
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| ## Results |
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| Ranked by **PR-AUC ↑** (higher is better). Every family that ran is listed, including those that lost — the comparison is the deliverable. |
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| | Model | Family | PR-AUC ↑ | ROC-AUC ↑ | Brier ↓ | Best F1 ↑ | Fit | Beats baseline | |
| |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| |
| | `random_forest` | trees | 0.1365 | 0.9380 | 0.0027 | 0.2312 | 64s | yes | |
| | `catboost` | gbdt | 0.1305 | 0.9341 | 0.0027 | 0.2203 | 35s | yes | |
| | `xgboost` | gbdt | 0.1281 | 0.9368 | 0.0027 | 0.2153 | 20s | yes | |
| | `extra_trees` | trees | 0.1218 | 0.9362 | 0.0027 | 0.2138 | 23s | yes | |
| | `stacked` | ensemble | 0.1200 | 0.9363 | 0.0028 | 0.1902 | 233s | yes | |
| | `logistic` | linear | 0.1127 | 0.9204 | 0.0027 | 0.2074 | 11s | yes | |
| | `hist_gbm` | gbdt | 0.0881 | 0.9128 | 0.0031 | 0.1896 | 4s | yes | |
| | `lightgbm` | gbdt | 0.0357 | 0.9229 | 0.0054 | 0.0926 | 14s | yes | |
| | `prior` | baseline | 0.0029 | 0.5000 | 0.0029 | 0.0058 | 0s | *baseline* | |
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| **Best learned family: `random_forest`** at 0.1365, 46.9x the strongest baseline (`prior` at 0.0029). |
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| ## Reproduction |
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| ```bash |
| make data && make ingest && make features |
| make train |
| ``` |
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| Seed `42`. Splits are chronological, never random. |
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