docs/schema_belief.md

Belief data and label semantics

What a row represents

dataset/Belief/source/data.parquet contains 1,810,609 wallet-market records. A row summarizes a wallet's held outcomes in one market and assigns a dominant outcome (stance_outcome) plus a position-derived score (confidence).

Source columns

Column	Meaning supported by the release
wallet	Pseudonymous wallet address.
market_id	Market identifier.
question, market_slug, event_slug	Human-readable market metadata.
n_outcomes, positive_outcomes	Outcome metadata.
total_hold_amt	Total held amount used by the label calculation.
stance_outcome	Outcome selected as the wallet's stance.
stance_hold_amt	Amount held on stance_outcome.
second_hold_amt	Amount held on the second side/outcome.
confidence	Position-derived normalized holding imbalance.
label_status, label_status_v2	Released label-status fields.
stance_first_block, stance_last_block	First and last block associated with the stance.
stance_first_tx_hash, stance_last_tx_hash	Corresponding transaction hashes.

Verified confidence formula

Direct numerical validation over all source rows gives:

[ \text{confidence}=2\frac{\text{stance_hold_amt}}{\text{total_hold_amt}}-1. ]

For a two-sided market, if stance_hold_amt = H_max, second_hold_amt = H_min, and total_hold_amt = H_max + H_min, this is equivalent to:

[ \text{confidence}=\frac{H_{\max}-H_{\min}}{H_{\max}+H_{\min}}. ]

Examples:

Holdings	Confidence
50 / 50	0.0
60 / 40	0.2
75 / 25	0.5
90 / 10	0.8
100 / 0	1.0

This is best interpreted as position-derived confidence or normalized position imbalance. It is not a directly reported belief probability.

Model-ready split columns

dataset/Belief/splits/*.parquet and benchmark/Belief/direct/*.parquet contain:

sample_id, wallet, market_id, split, system_prompt, input_text,
label_choice, label_confidence, event_slug, question,
stance_first_block, stance_last_block

Profile adds profile_generator_model and generated_profile. Retrieval adds retrieval_method and retrieved_support.