| # Belief data and label semantics |
|
|
| ## What a row represents |
|
|
| `dataset/Belief/source/data.parquet` contains 1,810,609 wallet-market records. A row summarizes a wallet's held outcomes in one market and assigns a dominant outcome (`stance_outcome`) plus a position-derived score (`confidence`). |
|
|
| ## Source columns |
|
|
| | Column | Meaning supported by the release | |
| |---|---| |
| | `wallet` | Pseudonymous wallet address. | |
| | `market_id` | Market identifier. | |
| | `question`, `market_slug`, `event_slug` | Human-readable market metadata. | |
| | `n_outcomes`, `positive_outcomes` | Outcome metadata. | |
| | `total_hold_amt` | Total held amount used by the label calculation. | |
| | `stance_outcome` | Outcome selected as the wallet's stance. | |
| | `stance_hold_amt` | Amount held on `stance_outcome`. | |
| | `second_hold_amt` | Amount held on the second side/outcome. | |
| | `confidence` | Position-derived normalized holding imbalance. | |
| | `label_status`, `label_status_v2` | Released label-status fields. | |
| | `stance_first_block`, `stance_last_block` | First and last block associated with the stance. | |
| | `stance_first_tx_hash`, `stance_last_tx_hash` | Corresponding transaction hashes. | |
|
|
|
|
| ## Verified confidence formula |
|
|
| Direct numerical validation over all source rows gives: |
|
|
| \[ |
| \text{confidence}=2\frac{\text{stance\_hold\_amt}}{\text{total\_hold\_amt}}-1. |
| \] |
|
|
| For a two-sided market, if `stance_hold_amt = H_max`, `second_hold_amt = H_min`, and `total_hold_amt = H_max + H_min`, this is equivalent to: |
|
|
| \[ |
| \text{confidence}=\frac{H_{\max}-H_{\min}}{H_{\max}+H_{\min}}. |
| \] |
|
|
| Examples: |
|
|
| | Holdings | Confidence | |
| |---|---:| |
| | 50 / 50 | 0.0 | |
| | 60 / 40 | 0.2 | |
| | 75 / 25 | 0.5 | |
| | 90 / 10 | 0.8 | |
| | 100 / 0 | 1.0 | |
|
|
| This is best interpreted as **position-derived confidence** or **normalized position imbalance**. It is not a directly reported belief probability. |
|
|
| ## Model-ready split columns |
|
|
| `dataset/Belief/splits/*.parquet` and `benchmark/Belief/direct/*.parquet` contain: |
|
|
| ```text |
| sample_id, wallet, market_id, split, system_prompt, input_text, |
| label_choice, label_confidence, event_slug, question, |
| stance_first_block, stance_last_block |
| ``` |
|
|
| Profile adds `profile_generator_model` and `generated_profile`. Retrieval adds `retrieval_method` and `retrieved_support`. |
|
|
