README.md

metadata

license: mit
tags:
  - weather
  - numerical-weather-prediction
  - prediction-markets
  - forecasting
  - graphcast
  - gencast
  - build-in-public
pretty_name: OpenThomas weather forecasts

OpenThomas weather forecasts

Every forecast the OpenThomas weather desk read or produced, as-of. Pushed daily from the trading box, so each commit is a timestamped record of what was known when — the leak-free substrate behind the paper's replay experiments (docs/EXPERIMENTS.md in the harness repository).

file	what	lines / bytes
data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl	as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI)	29,022
data/own-models.jsonl	station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps	5,600
data/gencast-spread.json	per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input)	3,296
data/graphcast-tempseries.json	coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run	112,989
data/baseline-nbm.jsonl	as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline	2,800
data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl	as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive)	2,800

Frozen replay datasets and experiment results

replay/ holds the frozen decision-time rows (one JSONL per window, digest in the filename) and the experiment results scored on them. A row carries the settlement station and day, the baseline probability at the snapshot, the Kalshi bid/ask at that snapshot, and the outcome — never anything the agent could not have known at decision time.

• replay/e3-high9.txt
• replay/e3-low1.txt
• replay/e3-low2.txt
• replay/e3e4.log
• replay/e3e4.sh
• replay/e4.log
• replay/e4.sh
• replay/e4.txt
• replay/lineage.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.md
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.json
• replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.md
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.json
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.json
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.md
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.json
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.md
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.json
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.md
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.json
• replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.md
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl
• replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl
• replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl
• replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
• replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
• replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl
• replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl

Conventions

• Temperatures are °F; settlements are the integer daily extreme from the NWS Climatological Report (via ACIS), the number the markets settle on.
• lead is days ahead: lead 1 for target day d is what the model published on d − 1.
• NBM / GFS MOS baselines use the d − 1 12Z run, read from the IEM MOS archive as issued.
• Own-model rows carry issued_at; the run that produced them is identified by that timestamp and the model name.

Paper trading. Nothing here is financial advice.