| --- |
| license: mit |
| tags: |
| - weather |
| - numerical-weather-prediction |
| - prediction-markets |
| - forecasting |
| - graphcast |
| - gencast |
| - build-in-public |
| pretty_name: OpenThomas weather forecasts |
| --- |
| |
| # OpenThomas weather forecasts |
|
|
| Every forecast the [OpenThomas](https://openthomas.com) weather desk read or |
| produced, as-of. Pushed daily from the trading box, so each commit is a |
| timestamped record of what was known when — the leak-free substrate behind |
| the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the |
| [harness repository](https://github.com/PredictionMarketTrader/openthomas)). |
|
|
| | file | what | lines / bytes | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 29,022 | |
| | `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 5,600 | |
| | `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,296 | |
| | `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,989 | |
| | `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,800 | |
| | `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,800 | |
|
|
| ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results |
|
|
| `replay/` holds the frozen decision-time rows (one JSONL per window, digest |
| in the filename) and the experiment results scored on them. A row carries |
| the settlement station and day, the baseline probability at the snapshot, |
| the Kalshi bid/ask at that snapshot, and the outcome — never anything the |
| agent could not have known at decision time. |
|
|
| - `replay/e3-high9.txt` |
| - `replay/e3-low1.txt` |
| - `replay/e3-low2.txt` |
| - `replay/e3e4.log` |
| - `replay/e3e4.sh` |
| - `replay/e4.log` |
| - `replay/e4.sh` |
| - `replay/e4.txt` |
| - `replay/lineage.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.md` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.json` |
| - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.md` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.json` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.json` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.md` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.json` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.md` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.json` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.md` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.json` |
| - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.md` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl` |
| - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl` |
|
|
| ## Conventions |
|
|
| - Temperatures are °F; settlements are the integer daily extreme from the |
| NWS Climatological Report (via ACIS), the number the markets settle on. |
| - `lead` is days ahead: lead 1 for target day *d* is what the model published |
| on *d − 1*. |
| - NBM / GFS MOS baselines use the *d − 1* 12Z run, read from the IEM MOS |
| archive as issued. |
| - Own-model rows carry `issued_at`; the run that produced them is identified |
| by that timestamp and the model name. |
|
|
| *Paper trading. Nothing here is financial advice.* |
|
|
