File size: 17,521 Bytes
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license: mit
tags:
- weather
- numerical-weather-prediction
- prediction-markets
- forecasting
- graphcast
- gencast
- build-in-public
pretty_name: OpenThomas weather forecasts
---
# OpenThomas weather forecasts
Every forecast the [OpenThomas](https://openthomas.com) weather desk read or
produced, as-of. Pushed daily from the trading box, so each commit is a
timestamped record of what was known when — the leak-free substrate behind
the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
[harness repository](https://github.com/PredictionMarketTrader/openthomas)).
| file | what | lines / bytes |
|---|---|---|
| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 29,982 |
| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 5,600 |
| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,296 |
| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,989 |
| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,920 |
| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,960 |
## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
`replay/` holds the frozen decision-time rows (one JSONL per window, digest
in the filename) and the experiment results scored on them. A row carries
the settlement station and day, the baseline probability at the snapshot,
the Kalshi bid/ask at that snapshot, and the outcome — never anything the
agent could not have known at decision time.
- `replay/e3-high9.txt`
- `replay/e3-low1.txt`
- `replay/e3-low2.txt`
- `replay/e3e4.log`
- `replay/e3e4.sh`
- `replay/e4.log`
- `replay/e4.sh`
- `replay/e4.txt`
- `replay/lineage.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-29.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-29.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-30.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-30.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-03.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-03.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-04.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-04.md`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-05.json`
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-05.md`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.json`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.json`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.md`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.json`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.md`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.json`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.md`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.json`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.md`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.json`
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.md`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-29.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-30.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-03.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-04.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-05.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-29.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-30.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-03.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-04.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-05.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-23.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-24.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-25.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-27.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-28.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-29.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-14.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-15.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-16.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-17.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-18.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-23.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-24.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-29.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-30.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-03.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-04.jsonl`
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-05.jsonl`
## Conventions
- Temperatures are °F; settlements are the integer daily extreme from the
NWS Climatological Report (via ACIS), the number the markets settle on.
- `lead` is days ahead: lead 1 for target day *d* is what the model published
on *d − 1*.
- NBM / GFS MOS baselines use the *d − 1* 12Z run, read from the IEM MOS
archive as issued.
- Own-model rows carry `issued_at`; the run that produced them is identified
by that timestamp and the model name.
*Paper trading. Nothing here is financial advice.*
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